EUR / USD. June 28th. The trade war is not a hindrance to the US dollar

4-hour timeframe


Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 126p - 75p - 84p - 86p - 131p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 100p (87p).

The trade war between the US and China with the EU continues to gain momentum, countries and the Euroblock continue to consider the possibility of introducing new trade restrictions, and the US dollar continues to grow. One gets the impression that it is the States that have the priority right to impose sanctions on any country in the world, while nobody can answer them. This is how you can interpret what is happening, looking at the chart of the movement of the main currency pair. The trade war concerns both the EU and the US, but only the euro is cheaper. Yesterday's report on changes in the volume of orders for durable goods in America showed a decrease in May by 0.6%. And although this value is better than forecast, it is still a negative trend. However, traders did not even pay attention to this indicator and massively continued to buy up the US currency. Thus, it seems that we are returning to the scenario called "the dollar will go up in any case". Now it's even hard to say that it can stop the US currency from unrestrained strengthening. It is clear that not trivial macroeconomic reports from the EU or America. In the next few days, the currency pair can overcome the minimums of May 29 and June 21, which will allow traders to move the pair down even more forcefully. From a technical point of view, there are no factors that give hope for an upward movement. There is not even a hint of correction - the MACD indicator is pointing down. The price rested on the first support level of 1.1551, and its overcoming will allow the pair to continue free fall.

Trading recommendations:

For the pair EUR / USD, it is recommended to hold open short positions earlier, because there are still no signs of a correction beginning. The objectives are 1.1484 and 1.1446. The signal to shorten the shorts will turn the indicator MACD upward or a pronounced rebound from the level of 1.1551.

Long positions are recommended to be opened in case of a price rebound from the support level of 1.1551 or in case the MACD indicator turns up. However, the strong downward movement should be taken into account, therefore, longs can only be relevant to extremely small lots.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -