Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for September 20, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair is still running into consolidation before terminating the last leg/s of its rally that began in January 2017. The structure presented above is exciting because it shows we are very close to forming a major top and reversal in EUR/USD, maybe a few hours or days ahead. Overall, the wave count suggests that a triangle structure is unfolding and is probable into its last leg as well. The pair is currently expected to drop lower into 1.1900 levels, terminating into wave e, before rallying over to a new high into 1.2150 region. Quite multiple trade strategies are seen to be unfolding for the short term but the bigger picture remains selling on rallies. Immediate support is seen at 1.1820 levels and resistance is at 1.2092 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Short term:

Remain short with stop around 1.2100 and target 1.1900/20 levels, then turn long with stop at 1.1800 levels targeting 1.2100/50.

Long term:

Prepare to go short around 1.2150 levels, stop 1.2300 and target is open.

GBP/USD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

There is a slight change between GBP/USD and EUR/USD setups at this point in time, but the overall opportunity is the same and this is to sell on rallies. The GBP/USD pair has either formed a top at 1.3619 or would form another one a bit higher before giving in to bears in a big way. For an overall wave structure, we are closing in on a larger degree wave (4), not shown here, which can reverse the trend and push prices lower towards 1.2000. It is still early to speculate whether the larger trend has already reversed, since immediate support at 1.3130 level is still intact and short-term trend lines have also not broken yet. A short-term trading outlook should be on the sell side with targets towards 1.3350 levels. If the drop continues below 1.3130 levels, it would confirm and indicate that a major top is already in place. The overall strategy would remain selling on rallies.

Trading plan:

Remain short between 1.3550/50, stop above 1.3750 (to remain safely away from potential rally), targeting 1.2000. This is a multiple weeks trading strategy.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for FOMC minutes and USD Fed rate decision to be out today at 02:00 PM EST.

Good luck!

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USD/JPY analysis for September 20, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 111.23. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found that sellers don't have enough power to break yesterday's low at the price of 111.20, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities today. The upward target is set at the price of 111.85 (yesterday's high).

Resistance levels:

R1: 111.35

R2: 111.40

R3: 111.50

Support levels:

S1: 111.25

S2: 111.20

S3: 111.15

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 20, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3607 in an ultra high volume. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a wide spread bar and buying climax in the background, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. There is also a fake breakout of yesterday's high, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3470 and 1.3400.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3548

R2: 1.3560

R3: 1.3570

Support levels:

S1: 1.3525

S2: 1.3515

S3: 1.3505

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 20, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $3.903 driven on the news that Chinese authorities may be moving toward a broad clampdown on Bitcoin, including peer-to-peer (P2P) exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) trading platforms. Using the Great Firewall to block IP addresses, access to foreign bitcoin exchanges could be blocked and the Bitcoin transaction network could be disrupted within the country. Bitcoin miners are also worried that their operations could be restricted. The technical picture is swoing strong resistance cluster.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found strong resistance cluster. The strong support now became restistance at the price of $4.605. There is also a hidden bearish divergence on the moving oscilator. Watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $3.721, $3.455 and $2.995.

Support/Resistance

$4.000 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$4.065 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$3.721 – Support (first objective)

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 20, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 20, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 can be watched for a valid BUY entry.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 20, 2017

EUR/JPY has been bullish in nature recently after breaking above the corrective structure resistance of 132.00. In light of recent positive economic reports and the hawkish statement of ECB President Draghi, the currency has been quite dominating JPY and it is expected to sustain in the long run as well. Recently, EUR Current Account report was published which showed an increase to 25.1B from the previous figure of 22.8B which was expected to decrease to 22.3B, German ZEW Economic Sentiment report published with significant growth to 17.0 from the previous figure of 10.0 which was expected to have a slight increase to 12.3, and ZEW eurozone Sentiment report was published with an increase to 31.7 from the previous figure of 29.3 which was expected to be at 32.4. Today, EUR German PPI report was published with an unchanged value at 0.2% which was expected to decrease to 0.1%. On the other hand, today Japan's Trade Balance report was published with an actual result of increase to 0.37T from the previous figure of 0.36T but it failed to meet the expectation of 0.41T. To sum up, though JPY was not quite better with the economic reports today as EUR, JPY was quite strong to hold the gains rather than losing some grounds to EUR today which is expected to lead to short- or medium-term bearish pressure in the market before EUR takes off the price with further gains on the upside.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure in the market after the positive economic reports from the eurozone. It means indicates that the price is going to retrace towards 132.00 level before showing some upward move in the coming days towards the target of 134.30. As the price remains above the 130.60 level, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Global macro overview for 20/09/2017

Global macro overview for 20/09/2017:

The European Central Bank (ECB) once again tried (ineffectively) verbally intervene against further strengthening of the Euro currency. According to the Reuters agency, "anonymous sources" informed, that there were discrepancies in the Governing Council of the ECB as to the future decision regarding the quantitative easing program. Some representatives from richer countries want a definite end to the intervention, while the presidents of the countries of the south of Europe are merely supporting the idea of reducing the amount of the Euro the EBC spends on the QE. As a result, perhaps the October meeting will be used to reach a compromise on this issue, and final decisions will only be made in December. Meanwhile, the value of the ECB's assets is growing and reached 40% of the Eurozone GBP in August (compared to 28% for the Fed). It is quite obvious that the ECB should end the program in December and not even extend it beyond March next year. Leaders of the Governing Council, however, dominate the "dovish" point of view headed by Mario Draghi, so financial market participants still believe the odds are the QE will also be running in 2018.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture on the daily time frame. The market just hit the 78%Fibo retracement of the previous swing down at the level of 134.31 and this is the last level of resistance before the test of the long-term high at the level of 141.14 might occur. Nevertheless, the clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator is likely to make the bears regain control over the market and the technical support at the level of 131.39 will be tested first.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 20, 2017

EUR/USD: A bullish signal has just been generated on the EUR/USD pair. Price made some bullish attempt and it is now above the support line at 1.2000, going towards the resistance line at 1.2050 (which is the first target). The second target is the resistance line at 1.2100.

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USD/CHF: This pair is still consolidating. For a directional movement to start, price would either need to go below the supply line at 0.9500 (staying below it); or price would go above the resistance level at 0.9700, causing a bullish signal to be generated. A movement below the support level at 0.9500 would strengthen the overall bearish outlook.

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GBP/USD: Although it has consolidated so far this week, there is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the GBP/USD 4-hour chart. When a breakout does occur, it would be in favor of bulls as price is expected to go towards the distribution territories at 1.3550, 1.3600, and 1.3650, which would all be reached before the end of the week.

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USD/JPY: There has been a slight bearish correction on this currency trading instrument, and that could be the beginning of the expected bearishness in the market (which could happen before the end of this week). The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period remains above the level 50. This situation would change once price nosedives by 200 pips, swiftly or little by little.

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EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument went upwards by another 160 pips this week, and further upwards movement is possible. However, price is expected to be corrected soon downwards before the end of the week; something that would be somewhat difficult to achieve as long EUR has some stamina in it.

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Global macro overview for 20/09/2017

Global macro overview for 20/09/2017:

The Retail Sales data from the UK has beaten market expectations. Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level with auto fuel was released up to 1.0%, while market participants expected only a 0.2% increase after 0.6% number last month. Moreover, on a yearly basis, the sales jumped to 2.4% from 1.4% a month ago, beating the consensus of 1.1%.

The latest Bank of England Agents Report revealed that UK households had responded to squeezed incomes by trading down or focusing on essential purchases. As a result, demand growth slowed down across a number of consumer-facing sectors, and modest nominal consumer spending growth primarily reflected headline inflation. Investment intentions indicated weaker growth within services, but were more positive for goods exporters. Growth in labour costs per employee was subdued, with settlements clustered around 2.0% to 3.0%. Recruitment difficulties remained elevated, with conditions becoming very tight for some skills. The impact of a decline in the sterling value on consumer inflation appeared to have reached its peak. Consumer services inflation was steady overall.

In conclusion, better than expected sales data and quite positive Agents Report might both add to the recent market sentiment regarding the possibility of the Bank of England interest rate hike. Yesterday's comments from BoE Governor Mark Carney, who had reiterated after his colleagues that an interest rate hike might come in the "coming months", the British Pound is still being well bid across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The pair is trading around the level of 1.3556 under overbought conditions and a visible bearish divergence has formed between the price and the momentum indicator. The immediate support is seen at the level of 1.3462, but the most important level for bulls is the technical support at the level of 1.3270 as any breakout lower will be the first sign that bears are in control over this market again. The larger time-frame trend is still upward.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 20, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair will probably continue to rise from the level of 0.7331 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7331 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7374. So, buy above the level of 0.7374 with the first target at 0.7400 in order to test the daily resistance 2 and further to 0.7430. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7430 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7331, a further decline to 0.7273 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

Observations:

  • Pivot point is seen at the point of 0.7350.
  • Volatility: 78 (in pips).
  • Support levels are seen at 0.7331, 0.7297 and 0.7273.
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Bitcoin analysis for 20/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 20/09/2017:

Professor Yang Dong, the lecturer at the Chinese University of Renmin, in an interview for CCTV, publicized the reasons why the Bitcoin bans recently occurred in China. The first reason is a lack of appropriate licenses. At present, Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges do not have the power to obtain a banking license, so they operate outside of the legal system. According to the researcher, this poses a significant business risk The second reason is the Bitcoin functional model. Dong claims, that the mechanism of limiting the Bitcoin quantity using a specific code is "controversial". In addition, he stresses the problem caused by the high volatility of Bitcoin. The third reason is a high possibility of fraud and money laundering opportunities used by criminals. The fourth reason is market manipulation possibilities that can be used by "whales" (investors, who operate millions of Dollars, are influencing Bitcoin's price, for example, heavily hitting its course in a short time). The fifth reason is security issues, as in the case of insufficient security, hackers can gain access to the resources and data of cryptoanalysts leading to irreversible losses. The last reason discussed by the professor is the darknet market. Since they do not use money laundering or customer identification laws, the government can not effectively control this area. In conclusion, a well-spotted reason for which the government regulation is needed not only in China, but all over the world as the rise in popularity of cryptocurrencies is now very high and it does not look it will end soon.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. So far only a three-wave up move was made from the lows at the level of $2,965, so this progression looks more like a part of a wave B than a new, strong impulsive wave to the upside. Any breakout below the level of $3,452 will immediately expose the recent lows for a test ( and possible breakout) and the impulsive upwards scenario will be invalidated.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 20, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is still trading around the area of 0.9580-0.9679. The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 0.9580 (major support). The level of 0.9580 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 30. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours.
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  • Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 0.9624 with the first target at the level of 0.9679. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.9679 and further to the level of 0.9710. The level of 0.9710 will act as strong resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.9710. However, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.9580, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the second support of 0.9549.
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GBP/USD analysis for September 19, 2017

Forex analysis review
GBP/USD analysis for September 19, 2017

The Fed meeting: markets are waiting for positive news

The dollar is not in the best condition as it approaches the key autumn meeting of the Fed. Despite the fact that one of the burning issues has been resolved positively, namely the issue of the level of public debt which automatically removes the probability of a government default, a number of indirect factors still indicate serious problems in the US economy.

The current account deficit reached 123 billion dollars in the 2nd quarter. This is the maximum value since 2008. The growth of the deficit relative to the 1st quarter was 8.5%. In all key components namely investment income, net transfers, the difference between imports and exports, the results were worse than forecasted.

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The US Treasury published another report on the inflow of foreign capital. The inflow for the last 12 months inclusive of July remained positive. However, a sharp decline to a 3-month low was recorded. It is obvious that "Trumpanomics" no longer inspires investors. The restoration of investments in the stock market, which was marked since February, has slowed down sharply. Investments in Treasury Bonds & Notes have remained on negative territory. Moreover, the aggregate inflow tends to slow down, which is clearly seen in the graph below. Each subsequent peak of activity, if you count from the peak reached in October 2010 at the "post-crisis" period, is lower than the previous one.

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The simultaneous decrease in the rate of growth in the collection of taxes, which are noticeably lagging behind GDP growth, clearly indicate that the entire growth of the US economy at the present stage is formed due to the outstripping growth of the debt. Debt at all levels (from federal to municipal) grows faster than the economy. And household debts (consumer, mortgage, education, etc.) grow faster than income.

The branching point for the US regulator is approaching. The market must understand if there is still a plan for reforming the economy that will reverse the negative trend, or if there is a plan with no chance of being realized, or if there is no plan at all.

There are three possible scenarios for the market reaction from the extent to which the results of the meeting will meet market expectations.

The main scenario, from which the players proceed at the moment, looks positive. Throughout the spectrum of G10 countries, there is an increase in stock indices and bond yields, which indicates the departure of capital from the debt market. Prices for gold fell to a monthly low. Oil, on the contrary, almost closely approached the maximum of the year. The market expects that macroeconomic forecasts will at least not be worsened, and Fed Chairman Yellen will finally announce the beginning of the reduction of the balance sheet. The text of the final statement is expected to be more hawkish, which will increase the chances that in December, the Fed will once again raise the rate and will not break out of its own schedule.

The dollar, in case of realization of market expectations, will show the tendency to grow, especially against defensive assets such as yen, franc, and even euro.

If the outlook turns out to be more positive, and Yellen's speech is more militant, then the market can formalize a global turn in the dollar, completing the phase of weakness, which lasted from January.

And only if the expectations of the market are not justified, only in this case will the dollar react with a decrease.

The balance is rather unstable. We have already mentioned that the financial conditions for business do not look too attractive. A rate hike can cause the opposite effect. The dollar, after the period of high volatility, will not find the strength to grow.

Thus, we must proceed from the fact that the Fed meeting is a key event, but not the only one. Markets will wait for the tax reform, which will put everything in its place.

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Trading plan for 20/09/2017

Trading plan for 20/09/2017:

The forex market volatility is currently very limited as market participants await FOMC statement tonight. The USD is slightly weaker during Asian trade, however, it looks like cosmetic alignment before the evening events. The EUR/USD pair barely swings above 1.20, and USD/JPY drops below 111.50 after two unsuccessful attempts to break out above 111.80. The stock market also maintains yesterday's range and Crude Oil continues to stand in place. Gold takes advantage of halting the USD uptrend and managed to rebound from $1,305 level. Now it is at $1,313, but the future direction will be heavily dependent on the FOMC decision on the US debt market and the Dollar.

On Wednesday 20th of September, the event calendar will get busy with important news release during the late US session, when the FOMC announces its interest rate decision, statement and economic projections. During the London session, the data to be released are German PPI Index and Retail Sales With Auto Fuel from the UK.

US Dollar Index analysis for 20/09/2017:

The FOMC interest rate decision, statement and economic projection are scheduled for release at 06:00 pm GMT. The FOMC press conference starts at 08:30 pm GMT. Market participants do not expect any interest rate hike from 1.25% level this month, as the majority of global investors anticipate a possible rate hike in December only. The theme of the September FOMC meeting is to begin the process of reducing the balance sheet total. When in 2014 the Fed closed the third round of quantitative easing (QE3), its balance swelled to about 4.5 trillion Dollars. The Fed reinvested the funds from the mature debt instruments, so its balance did not shrink. But now the Fed wants to change that and this week the regulator should present a decision to start reducing probably from next month. However, the Fed has started to prepare investors for a reduction of the balance sheet several months ago, and now the actual launch of the program will not have a significant impact on the market. It will be more important how the members of the committee see the prospects of the interest rate path and how the distribution of forecasts for individual members will look - so-called dot plot. There is currently widespread disagreement between market expectations and recent FOMC forecasts. In June, the median expectations of the committee members pointed to one more hike by the end of 2017 and another three in 2018. Meanwhile, the market is currently discounting a little over 50% chance for a hike in December 2017, and by the end of 2018 - a total of one and a half increases. The reason behind this point of view is a broader view of decision-makers on the economic situation. Fuel for market skepticism has been a disappointment in the inflation trend in recent months - five inflation readings up to the August were way below market expectations, only the September reading was close to 1.9% ( Fed's projected target is 2.0% by the end of the year). On the other hand, the other sectors of the US economy are in favor of the monetary policy normalization. The second quarter brought GDP growth of 3% with a strong attitude of private consumption and investment growth. The current quarter will certainly bring about a slowdown due to damage caused by hurricanes, but everything will be rebuilt in successive periods (repair work). The labor market situation is in line with Fed expectations, and the slowdown of employment is a natural phenomenon at this phase of the cycle. And last, but not least, there are positive signals from Washington regarding the Trump administration fiscal reform that might find support in Congress's fiscal plans.

The permanent outcome of the FOMC meeting might be the fact that, despite all the negative macroeconomic factors on which the market has been focusing, the Fed has not changed its attitude since the June meeting and wants to continue normalizing its monetary policy at a predetermined pace.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market volatility is limited and the is price is staying in a narrow range between the levels of 91.62 - 92.10. Only a sustained breakout above the golden trend line might trigger some bigger bounce in the index and maybe even a reversal. Nevertheless, the key level for bulls to take the control over this market is the zone between 93.35 - 93.65 levels. Otherwise, the downtrend will continue.

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Market Snapshot: AUD/USD at the resistance zone

The price of AUD/USD tests resistance at 0.8050 (local highs from 12-13 September). It is worth to wait for the course to continue. A clear breakout above this level will open the way to the highs of 8 September at around 0.8125. In case of a rebound, support is the 38%Fibo at 0.8005 and 61.8%Fibo at 0.7980.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil consolidating gains

The price of Crude Oil rebounded from the lower consolidation band at $49.40. So far there is no dominance of any of the market sides (supply/demand), but the solution may come when the Inventory Data will be published. The short-term target for bulls will be the upper limit of consolidation at $50.40. In case of a breakout, the next technical resistance is seen at $51.75 (external Fibo 127.2%), while technical support is seen at the level of $ 49.17.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 20, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 111.20. The pair is consolidating above the key support at 111.20 (the low of September 19), which should limit the downside potential. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Hence, above 111.20, expect a rebound to 111.85. A break above this level would trigger a new rise to 112.10.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 111.20 with a target at 110.95.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 111.20, Take Profit: 111.85

Resistance levels: 111.85, 112.10 and 112.40 Support Levels: 110.95, 110.60, 110.20

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 20, 2017

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We will retain our previous outlook for the pair. GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. From a chartist point of view, during the last hours, the pair has been drawing a support base at 150.15. This former resistance has been recently successfully tested and is now expected to maintain the intraday bullish bias.

As a consequence, above 150.15 look for further advance towards 151.65 and 152.70 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 150.15 with the target at 149.35.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 150.15, Take Profit: 151.65

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 151.65, 152.70 and 153.40

Support levels: 149.35, 148.35, and 147.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 20, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook above 0.9575. Despite the pair posting a pullback from 0.9650, it is still trading within the bullish channel. The key support at 0.9575 should limit the downside potential. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To sum up, above 0.9575, look for a further advance to 0.9650 and even to 0.9680 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9575, Take Profit: 0.9650

Resistance levels: 0.9650, 0.9680, and 0.9730

Support levels: 0.9545, 0.9510, and 0.9470

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 20, 2017

NZDUSDM30.png

Our first upsdie target placed at 0.7310 has been hit. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index advocates for a further upside.

To conclude, as long as 0.7290 holds on the downside, look for a rebound to 0.7345 (the high of September 18). A break above this level would trigger another advance to 0.7370.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines is showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7345, 0.7345, and 0.7370

Support levels: 0.7275, 0.7245, and 0.7180

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for September 20, 2017

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Wave summary:

Red wave iv is likely to be completed with the test of 1.6267 and red wave v higher to at least 1.6763 should now be developing. A break above minor resistance at 1.6533 will confirm that red wave iv has completed and red wave v is developing.

R3: 1.6630

R2: 1.6570

R1: 1.6523

Pivot: 1.6500

S1: 1.6437

S2: 1.6347

S3: 1.6267

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6355 with stop placed at 1.6255. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy upon a break above 1.6533 and use the same stop at 1.6255.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 20, 2017

analytics59c1fb50936e4.png

Wave summary:

We continue to look for more upside towards 136.14 and the ideal wave D target at 137.36 before turning lower in wave E. Short-term, we expected minor support at 132.24 to be able to protect the downside for the next rally higher to 134.80 and 136.14. A break below 132.24 will delay the expected upside, but support at 130.56 must hold or wave D is likely to complete prematurely.

R3: 134.80

R2: 134.25

R1: 133.85

Pivot: 133.50

S1: 133.12

S2: 132.94

S3: 132.61

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 131.76 with stop placed at 132.55. We will take half profit at 134.80.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 20, 2017

EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German PPI m/m. The US will also present a few economic reports such as Federal Funds Rate decision, FOMC Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, Crude Oil Inventories, and Existing Home Sales. So amid this background, EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2050.

Strong Resistance:1.2041.

Original Resistance: 1.2031.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2019.

Target Inner Area: 1.1991.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1963.

Original Support: 1.1951.

Strong Support: 1.1939.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1932.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 20, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Trade Balance. The US will also present some economic reports such as Federal Funds Rate decision FOMC Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, Crude Oil Inventories, and Existing Home Sales. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 112.08.

Resistance. 2: 111.86.

Resistance. 1: 111.64.

Support. 1: 111.37.

Support. 2: 111.15.

Support. 3: 110.93.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY testing major resistance, start to sell

Price is testing major channel resistance and we look to sell below this level of resistance (Swing high resistance, channel resistance, Fibonacci extension) for a short term correction to at least 132.01 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 96% where we expect a further drop from.

Sell below 134.15. Stop loss at 134.92. Take profit at 132.01.

analytics59c1c58412f5e.png

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AUD/JPY look to buy on weakness to play a further rise

Price continues to rise in our bullish channel. We look to buy on weakness above major support at 88.68 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) for a further rise towards 89.47 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) remains above our ascending support line signalling that we have not seen the end of our bullish momentum.

Buy above 88.68. Stop loss at 88.33. Take profit at 89.47.

analytics59c1c54d86d64.png

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AUD/USD approaching profit target, prepare to sell

Price has bounced above our buying area perfectly yesterday and is fast approaching our profit target. We now start to sell below major resistance at 0.8023 (Fibonacci extension, descending resistance, swing high resistance, Fibonacci retracement) for a drop from here towards 0.7928 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% where we expect a reaction from.

Sell below 0.8023. Stop loss at 0.8060. Take profit at 0.7928.

analytics59c1c512c3da8.png

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EUR/USD testing resistance, remain bearish

Price is back to testing our resistance area. We remain bearish looking to sell below major resistance at 1.1994 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect a further drop from this level to push price down to at least 1.1838 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 95% where stochastic has good downside potential from.

Sell below 1.1994. Stop loss at 1.2035. Take profit at 1.1838.

analytics59c1c4d45e803.png

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USD/CHF remain bullish for a further rise

Price continues to slowly climb towards our profit target in our bullish channel. We remain bullish looking to buy above major support at 0.9578 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) for a bounce up to at least 0.9675 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) sees an ascending support line holding up our bullish price momentum really well.

Buy above 0.9578. Stop loss at 0.9525. Take profit at 0.9675.

analytics59c1c4a5334c2.png

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NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

Price has bounced up from our buying area and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.7342 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a push down to at least 0.7251 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% where we expect a reaction from to push price down.

Sell below 0.7342. Stop loss at 0.7376. Take profit at 0.7251.

analytics59c1c46b8e9bd.png

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 20, 2017

USDX still await to determine the next path in the short term, as the index continues to be above the support level of 91.67. The 200 SMA temporarily is providing dynamic resistance and bulls keep trying to consolidate gains above it. If we see a breakout over there, we can expect a continuation to test the resistance level of 93.09.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 91.67 / 90.30

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 90.30 and stop loss is at 93.04.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 20, 2017

GBP/USD is still trading sideways in Tuesday's session and the corrective phase could extend towards the 200 SMA on H1 chart, at which a dynamic support could be found. The resistance zone of 1.3592 continues to be the line in the sand for the pair, as it's struggling to consolidate above it. MACD indicator is trying to turn positive, favoring to the upside.

GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3592 / 1.3755

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3309 / 1.3209

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3592, take profit is at 1.3755 and stop loss is at 1.3430.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 20, 2017

The Dollar index is weakening in the short term. We could soon see a move to new lows around or even below 90. Trend remains bearish.

analytics59c19588daefc.png

Black line -resistance

The Dollar index is trading below the black trend line resistance and is very close to breaking below and out of the Kumo (cloud). This would be a bearish sign, specially if it is combined with a move below 91.50.

analytics59c195cec11d1.png

On a weekly basis, trend remains bearish. Price below both tenkan- and kijun-sen. A move towards 90 or lower is fully justified as long as price is below 92.70. Support is at 91.50 and if we see this level broken, we should expect price to accelerate lower towards 90.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 20, 2017

Gold price remains in a bearish short-term trend. Today Gold price mainly moved sideways but I believe we could see one more final new low near $1,299 before trend reverses to the upside.

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Black lines -bearish channel

Blue lines - price expected path

Gold price is inside the bearish channel and is trying to break above the 4-hour tenkan-sen indicator. Resistance is at $1,319 and support at $1,298. I expect one more new low and then a reversal towards at least $1,330.

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On a daily basis, Gold price has got very close to the 38% Fibonacci retracement. The minimum pullback has been made, so now we wait for a bounce at least towards the first important daily resistance at $1,335. I remain longer-term bullish and see pullbacks as buying opportunities.

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BITCOIN Analysis for September 19, 2017

Bitcoin is currently struggling to get a daily close over the $4,000.00 resistance level after the bounce off recently. The $4,000.00 level is very important in a psychological point of view for the investors and traders and breaking above this level is expected to provide extra confidence to market participants to understand the bias to trade the market. After Initial Coin Offering in China was cancelled, JP Morgan CEO termed Bitcoin as unreliable and a number of regulators are questioning its existing. The Bitcoin bounced off to prove that it has still remarkable things to offer traders in the market. Today, the market sentiment was quite corrective in nature but at the current situation bulls are showing some strength to push over the $4,000.00 level with a daily close. If we see a daily close above $4,000.00 level, then we will be looking forward to buy with target towards $4,386.80 and later towards $4,500.00 level. As the price remains above the Kumo Cloud, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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