AUD/USD starting to drop nicely, remain bearish

We remain bearish below major resistance at 0.7580 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal overlap resistance) with price recently breaking a long-term support-turned-resistance line leading us to expect a strong continued drop from this level to at least 0.7447 support (Fibonacci retracement, swing low support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) drops from 92% resistance and has good downside potential until its next support at 1.4%.

Sell below 0.7580. Stop loss at 0.7644. Take profit at 0.7447.

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AUD/NZD remain bullish

We remain bullish above 1.0385 support (Fibonacci retracement, swing low support) for a push up to 1.0438 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

RSI (34) is bouncing above our 31% support level.

Stochastic (21,5,3) is bouncing above our 6% support level.

Buy above 1.0385. Stop loss at 1.0438. Take profit at 1.0352.

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EUR/NZD analysis for January 30, 2017

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading downawrds. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.4693. According to the 4H time frame, I found overbought stochastic, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The trend is downward. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Pay attention to the 1.4690 level. If the price breaks that level, EUR/NZD may test the level of 1.4580.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1.4745

R2: 1.4760

R3: 1.4780

Support levels:

S1: 1.4705

S2: 1.4690

S3: 1.4670

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Gold analysis for January 30, 2017

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Recently, gold has been trading upawrds. The price tested the level of $1,195.71. According to the 30M time frame, I found confrmed bullish divergence on a Moving Average Oscilator, which is a sign of potential strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. Targets are set at the price of $1,202.70 and $1,207.60.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,196.70

R2: 1,197.50

R3: 1,198.95

Support levels:

S1: 1,193.90

S2: 1,193.00

S3: 1,191.55

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 30, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair broke above its 50-period moving average with strong momentum and is holding on the upside. The relative strength index is supported by a bullish trend line (since Jan 27) and stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50. The U.S. Commerce Department reported that GDP rose 1.9% annualized on quarter in the fourth quarter (vs. +2.2% expected, +3.5% in the third quarter).

In addition, 114.00 plays a key support role, which should limit downside potential. As long as this key level is not broken, look for a further rise to 115.30 and even 115.80 in extension.

Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 115.30 and the second one at 115.80. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 113.55 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 113.10. The pivot point is at 114.00.

Resistance levels: 115.30, 115.80, 116.25 , Support levels: 113.55, 113.10, 112.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 30, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair broke above its 20-period moving average, which is trading above the 50-period one, and is holding on the upside. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. Additionally, 0.9955 is playing a key support role, which should limit the downside potential.

Hence, as long as 0.9955 is not broken, look for a further upside to 1.0015 and even 1.0030 in extension.

Resistance levels: 1.0015, 1.0030, 1.0050

Support levels: 0.9930, 0.9900, 0.9875

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Global macro overview for 30/01/2017

Global macro overview for 30/01/2017:

The economic calendar will be full of market moving events in the nearest days. In a series of regular data from the economies (Eurozone CPI at 10:00 am GMT on Tuesday, indicators of the condition of the industry PMI / ISM at 03:00 pm GMT on Wednesday, the labor market in the US at 01:30 pm GMT on Friday) weaves the FED on Wednesday at 07:00 pm GMT. Although the US FED is not widely expected to raise the interest rates this time, it still can sustain the hawkish rhetoric of the recent policy statement, which will temporarily strengthen the US Dollar (3 rate hikes are on agenda in 2017). The likelihood is strong that the regulator will raise rates before June 2017. On the other hand, maintaining the hawkish rhetoric may increase expectations that the May meeting will be the strongest possibility for a rate hike before June.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD techncial picture before the series of important data will be released. The choppy and ovelapping price action from the low at the level of 1.0304 to the recent top at the level of 1.0722 suggests it is only a corrective bounce and not a start of a new trend. Moreover, the increasing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports the view. The next support is seen at the level of 1.0658 and the next resistnace is seen at the level of 1.0722.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 30, 2017

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.2473, 1.2380 and 1.2287. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.2380 and 1.2473, while the weekly strong support is found at 1.2287. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.2380. The market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.2380 - 1.2450. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the 1.2450 level with the first target at the level of 1.2605. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break through the first resistance level of 1.2605, we will see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.2774) to test it in coming days. Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the support levels of 1.2380 - 1.2450, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.2287.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 30, 2017

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.0749 towards 1.0695. Now, the price is set at 1.07000. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.0749 and 1.0804. Moreover, the price area of 1.0749 and 1.0804 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.0749 and 1.0664. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0664, the market will decline further to 1.0609 as as the first target. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.0578 so as to test the daily double bottom. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.0804 this week, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Global macro overview for 30/01/2017

Global macro overview for 30/01/2017:

Worse-than-expected data from the US have disappointed market participants. The data from last Friday shown, that US economic growth had slowed down significantly. The Commerce Department reported the economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.9% in the three-month period to December, after expanding 3.5% in the Q3, while market participants expected the GDP to grow 2.2% in the fourth quarter. Moreover, the Durable Goods Orders dropped 0.4% on a monthly basis, while market participants expected a 2.7% increase. The main reason behind this large drop was weak orders for defense capital goods, which fell 33.4%, the largest monthly drop since May 2014. In conclusion, the for all the year 2016 the GDP growth was at the level of 1.6% and it was the weakest one since 2011. This is why the upcoming economic plans from President Trump are so much anticipated.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture in the H4 time frame. After making the higher low at the level of 99.78 the market bounced towards the next technical resistance at the level of 100.70, but it has not breached it yet. The uptrend is still intact (as long as the level of 99.41 is broken) and in order to continue to move the market higher, the bulls must break out above the golden trend line around the level of 101.25.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 30, 2017

General overview for 30/01/2017:

The largest correction in the downtrend in the wave 2/b (purple) has been done, so the overbalance situation is now unfolding. The next target for bulls would be the intraday resistance at the level of 1.3213, but first the price must break out above the weekly pivot at the level of 1.3167. From the Elliott wave theory point of view, the situation is still unclear as none of the important levels has been broken or tested. This is why any of the two counts, main and alternative, is still equally valid.

Support/Resistance:

1.3000 - WS1

1.3054 - Intraday Support

1.3167 - Weekly Pivot

1.3213 - Intraday Resistance

1.3281 - WR1

1.3388 - Swing High

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should open the buy orders with SL below the level of 1.3054 and TP at the level of 1.3213. Please notice, that if the wave 3/c (purple) will keep going up, then the next target might be moved to the level of 1.3388.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 30, 2017

General overview for 30/01/2017:

The market is trading around the weekly pivot at the level of 122.66 after the local top at the level of 123.30 has been established. This top will now act as an intraday resistance for the price. The Elliott wave labeling still points out the possibility of a three-wave cycle to the upside (1/a, 2/b, 3/c) instead of fully developed impulsive wave progression. Nevertheless, to confirm that, the market would have to break out below the wave 2/b bottom at the level of 121.13.

Support/Resistance:

124.13 - WR1

123.84 - Technical Resistance

123.30 - Intraday Resistance

122.66 - Weekly Pivot

121.96 - WS1

121.13 - Wave 2/b Bottom

120.48 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should open the buy orders only if the level of 123.30 is clearly violated (hourly candle close above this level). Otherwise, the day traders should refrain from trading as the market might move sideways for some time.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 30, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to ttrade with bearish bias. The pair is trading below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the bearish bias. The relative strength index is supported by a bearish trend line and is above its neutrality level at 50. Additionally, 0.7285 is playing a key resistance role, which should limit the upside potential. As long as the resistance holds at this key level, look for a further downside to 0.7225 and even 0.7200 in extension.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7225. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7200. The pivot point stands at 0.7285. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7305 and the second one at 0.7325.

Resistance levels: 0.7305, 0.7325, 0.7340

Support levels: 0.7225, 0.7200, 0.7175

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 30, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair is turning down from its key resistance at 144.55, and has broken below both 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Meanwhile, the relative strength index has broken below the previous trend line since January 25. As long as the key resistance holds at 144.55, the risk of a break below 142.55 is high.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 143.50. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 142.95. The pivot point stands at 144.55. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 144.95 and the second one at 145.40.

Resistance levels: 144.95, 145.40, 145.80

Support levels: 143.50, 142.95,142.35

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Wave analysis of USDX for January 30, 2017

The Dollar index has made an important low last week at 99.79. This low could be a wave 4 low and we could be now at the early stages of wave 5 up targeting 105-106. In the short-term term price has given bullish reversal signals.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Black line - resistance at 100.80

The Dollar index is still below the Ichimoku cloud and inside the bearish channel but since last week we have bullish reversal signs and bullish divergence signs in the RSI. Short-term resistance is at 100.80. Support is at 100.15. A break above resistance will push the index towards 101.15 at least.

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On a weekly basis price could already have completed a wave 4 correction at last week's low which is also depicted by a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Price has important long-term resistance levels at 101.80 and at 103 next. Breaking above these levels will strengthen the bullish scenario looking for 105-106. Worst case scenario is a move towards 102, a lower high and the creation of a right hand shoulder for a H&S pattern with the neckline at 99.80.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of gold for January 30, 2017

Gold price has bounced as expected towards $1,200. Price reached $1,197 and got rejected. Gold price is expected to continue lower towards $1,160-50 area. Short-term trend is bearish. Important long-term support at $1,160-50.

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Gold price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart. Price is making lower lows and lower highs. The rejection at the Ichimoku cloud was expected although I cannot rule out another try at $1,200-$1,203. Short-term support is at $1,180. If broken we should move towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

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The weekly rejection is unfolding as we expected. Gold price is expected to move towards the tenkan-sen support (red line indicator) at $1,160. We cannot rule out a print below that support level but overall a weekly close below $1,160 will not be a good sign for bulls. For the time we remain cautious waiting for prices to move towards $1,160-50. Aggressive traders could short Gold at this bounce with $1,220 stop and target $1,160-50.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 30, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, and German Prelim CPI m/m. The US will release the economic data, too, such as Loan Officer Survey, Pending Home Sales m/m, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0776.

Strong Resistance:1.0770.

Original Resistance: 1.0759.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0748.

Target Inner Area: 1.0723.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0698.

Original Support: 1.0687.

Strong Support: 1.0676.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0670.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 30, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Loan Officer Survey, Pending Home Sales m/m, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.97.

Resistance. 2: 114.75.

Resistance. 1: 114.52.

Support. 1: 114.24.

Support. 2: 114.02.

Support. 3: 113.80.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 30, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD is in a bullish mode, but price merely consolidated throughout last week, not being able to stay above the resistance line at 1.0750. For the current bullish outlook to continue to make sense, price would need to go above the resistance line at 1.0750, and also reach another resistance line at 1.0800; otherwise a serious pullback may be experienced.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF only went flat throughout last week, in the context of a downtrend. The market has, interestingly oscillated around the psychological level at 1.0000. Should the market stay around that level for the next several trading days, the bias on the market would turn neutral. For a directional bias to form, the market would need to move further away from that level. A strong movement to the south would emphasize the recent weakness in the market, while a strong movement to the north would result in a new bullish outlook.

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GBP/USD: Since the beginning of last week, the GBP/USD has moved upwards by 660 pips. The market topped at the distribution territory at 1.2650, and then retraced a bit. The retracement continued until the market closed on Friday. The bias is still bullish and as long as price does not go below the accumulation territory at 1.2300, the bullish outlook would be valid.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument went downwards on Monday, and then began to trend upwards from Tuesday (till the end of the week). This has made price action to generate a "buy" signal in the short-term, which may continue to be valid as price goes further north. This is something that can lead to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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EUR/JPY: There is a bullish signal on the EUR/JPY. Last week, price moved upwards by 210 pips, from the low of January 23. Price has closed above the demand zone at 123.00, and it may now target the supply zones at 123.50, 124.00 and 124.50.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 30, 2017

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The USD/CAD pair was trapped between the price levels of 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) until a bullish breakout took place one month ago.

The pair challenged the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3360-1.3400 which succeeded to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) was achieved.

This allowed a further decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3080 (the lower limit of the depicted channel) where bullish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

A bullish breakout above 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel). However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recent established top).

The price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support for the recent bearish pullback.

That's why, the recent bearish pullback toward 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) offered a valid BUY entry as expected in previous articles.

This week, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) is needed to enhance bullish advance towards 1.3440 and 1.3550. Otherwise, the USD/CAD pair remains trapped within the current consolidation range (1.3000-1.3300).

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 30, 2017

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On November 8, significant signs of a bearish reversal were expressed around the upper limit of the depicted consolidation range (0.7350).

A bearish breakdown of 0.7250 (the lower limit of the depicted range) enhanced the bearish side of the market toward the price level of 0.7100 (recent bottom of October 28) which was broken as well.

Bearish persistence below 0.7100 allowed a quick decline toward 0.6960 (BUY zone) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry were expected. All T/P levels were successfully achieved.

Once again, bearish persistence below the price level of 0.7100 enabled the NZD/USD pair to pursue toward lower target levels around 0.6990 (the upper limit of the depicted BUY zone).

The price level of 0.6990 failed to apply enough bullish pressure. Instead of that, bearish movement continued toward the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone (0.6860) which provided significant bullish rejection on December 23.

The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (Key-Level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed further bullish advance toward 0.7250-0.7300 (Sell-Zone) where a valid SELL entry can be offered if enough bearish pressure is maintained (Note the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of Thursday).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 30, 2017

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By the end of June a significant bearish break below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (Fundamental Reasons).

Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario toward the price levels around 1.2700 (Bearish projection target).

The GBP/USD pair has been trapped inside the depicted consolidation range (above 1.2700) until a bearish breakout took place on October 6.

Daily persistence below 1.2700 confirmed the bearish Flag pattern. That is why, a bearish projection target was expected near 1.2020.

On October 25, Bullish recovery was initiated around the price level of 1.2080. That is why, a bullish pullback was executed toward 1.2700-1.2750.

Risky traders considered this bullish pullback toward the price zone of 1.2700-1.2750 to be a valid SELL entry. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On January 16, a bullish engulfing candlestick was expressed around the demand level of 1.2000. That's why, another bullish breakout above 1.2430 was initiated.

The next bullish target is located around 1.2750. Otherwise, the next bearish destination would be located around 1.1200 if bearish momentum is resumed.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 30, 2017

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010.

Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if the current monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish persistence below 1.0575 is needed to pursue this bearish scenario.

In September 2016, temporary bullish breakout above 1.1250 was expressed again, but evident bearish pressure was applied on the EUR/USD pair on September 16.

Closure below 1.1250 (Supply level 1) enhanced the bearish momentum toward the price level of 1.1000 (Key-Level 1).

Bearish persistence below 1.0825 (Key-Level 2) allowed further decline toward 1.0570 (demand level) where evident bullish rejection was expressed on November 24.

Shortly after, the Fibonacci Expansion 100% (1.0825) constituted a recent supply level which offered a valid SELL entry on December 8.

Bearish persistence below the depicted demand level (1.0570) was expected to allow further decline toward 1.0220. However, significant bullish recovery was expressed around the price level of 1.0340 on January 3.

Bullish persistence above 1.0600 allows further bullish advance toward 1.0825-1.0850 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

Bullish breakout above 1.0570-1.0600 was executed on January 12. Hence, the price level of 1.0600 now constitutes a recent demand level to be watched for bullish rejection if any bearish pullback occurs.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 30, 2017

The index stayed in a sideways range around the 200 SMA at H1 chart, looking to reach the resistance level of 101.43, as it already found a bottom at the 100.00 psychological zone across the board. If USDX manages to break above that resistance, we can expect a bullish week that put us in focus to target the 102.39 level as the next key area to the upside.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 101.43 / 102.39

H1 chart's support levels: 100.01 / 98.98

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 100.01, take profit is at 98.98 and stop loss is at 101.03.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 30, 2017

The pair closed last week supported by the 1.2525 level, following a very bullish structure developed from the 200 SMA at H1 chart. GBP/USD isn't giving bearish hints yet, in terms of trend-changing price action, but a breakout below the support level of 1.2420 should strengthen that idea. However, Cable needs to consolidate above the 1.2750 zone in order to reach the 1.2900 level in the short-term.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2645 / 1.2721

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2525 / 1.2420

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2645, take profit is at 1.2721 and stop loss is at 1.2566.

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