Next year, gold may add significantly

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According to experts of the Swiss bank Credit Suisse, next year the gold rate may show a significant increase.

"Our gold outlook for 2019 remains bullish," said representatives of the financial institute.

As factors that will contribute to an increase in the value of the precious metal, they indicated a weakening of the US currency, a decline in the yield of US government bonds and a correction in the stock market.

According to analysts, another supporting factor will be the purchase of gold by central banks, which will continue to diversify their international reserves.

"If the turbulence in the stock market intensifies, the precious metal will strengthen its position as a defensive asset," the experts at Credit Suisse said.

They expect that in 2019 the average price of gold will be $ 1,275 per 1 ounce, and in 2020 it will reach $ 1,300

Experts from Goldman Sachs, ABN AMRO and Commerzbank also adhere to the "bullish" views on the prospects for gold, according to which next year the precious metal can rise in price to $ 1,350, $ 1,400 and $ 1,500 per ounce, respectively.

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EUR and GBP: Major players are manipulating the market. UK GDP coincided with the forecast of economists

The demand for the European currency has again sharply decreased, and this is the case when large players play against the market and against the news background. While speculative traders open long positions on the euro based on continued risky asset growth after recent statements by the US Federal Reserve, major players play a completely different game, opening long positions on the US dollar per next market divorce. Who wins in this game, I think everyone understands.

Let me remind you that after the Fed's statements that the prospects for economic growth in the USA in 2019 became less favorable, the European currency, like a number of other world currencies, began its sharp strengthening against the US dollar. But, as can be seen on the graph, not for long.

The data, which came out in the first half of the day for Germany, did not greatly influence the alignment of forces, however, traders took advantage of the moment and recorded part of their long positions in euros.

According to the report of the research group GfK, the mood of German consumers in January of next year, and the indicator is of a leading nature, will remain unchanged. A number of risks, which consist of problems in trade relations with the USA and the Brexit hard scenario, do not allow consumers to look positively into the future.

As indicated in the report, the leading consumer confidence index GfK of Germany as of January 2019 was 10.4 points, remaining at the same level as compared with December. Economists had forecast a decline to 10.3 points. The sub-index of economic expectations fell to 14.1 in December, while the indicator of income expectations rose to 53.8 points.

As for the current technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, all the bearish goals have been fulfilled today, and with the renewal of major support around 1.1402, the demand for the US dollar will slow down, which will lead to the formation of an upward correction in the resistance area of 1.1435, where the trading week may close.

Great Britain

The British pound ignored GDP data and continued to trade in a narrow side channel.

According to a report from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the 3rd quarter of this year, the UK economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.5%, which corresponds to a preliminary estimate. Compared with the previous quarter, the growth was 0.6%, which also completely coincided with the forecasts of economists.

Xf148RxvpcqExfHA45MBKVMUYmmfstPk-eUN9Gd_As noted in the report, the main growth accounted for good consumer spending, which was the main driver of GDP growth. The reduction is noted in the investments of companies.

The current account deficit in the UK balance of payments for the 2nd quarter of this year was revised to £ 20.0 billion from £ 20.3 billion. In the 3rd quarter, the deficit increased even more and amounted to 26.5 muzzle pounds, while economists had forecast a deficit in the current account of the UK balance of payments in the amount of 23.3 billion pounds.

As for the volume of borrowed funds of the public sector, then there have been no major changes. As noted in the report of the National Bureau of Statistics, net borrowings of the public sector in November of this year were at 7.2 billion pounds against 8.1 billion pounds a year ago. Economists had forecast that the net borrowing of the UK public sector at 7.8 billion pounds.

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Euro believes in itself

What to be, not to be avoided. The Fed recognized the need to gradually slow down the process of normalizing monetary policy. FOMC members are planning to raise the federal funds rate once or twice in 2019, rather than three, as in September forecasts. The Central Bank believes that the US economy will slow down from 3% to 2.3% in 2019. If GDP and stock indices peaked, then what's the point of holding on to the dollar? Is it time to sell it? After a pause, speculators answered this question positively, which allowed EUR / USD to soar to the top of the 14th figure. However, not for long.

If the favorite shows signs of weakness, then this does not mean that it is ready to throw the white flag. His opponent, if, of course, he wants to win, must present his trump cards, and the euro, at first glance, has few of them. GDP and business activity are growing at the slowest pace since 2014, and core inflation has frozen at around 1%. It is unlikely that the ECB in such conditions will want to normalize monetary policy. However, in order to understand where the eurozone economy will move, you need to understand the reasons for its sluggish state. These include trade wars, the problems of the German auto industry and the unfavorable political landscape.

It is believed that the conflict between the United States and China is most harmful for export-oriented economies. Due to a decrease in external demand, they suffer the most. In this regard, the eurozone, with its export share in GDP reaching 40%, is in an extremely disadvantageous position compared to the United States. The indicator for the latter does not reach 20%. At the same time, the autumn statistics on foreign trade of the currency bloc shows that, in fact, not everything is as bad as it may seem at first glance.

Dynamics of European exports

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From a political point of view, there are two hot spots on the map of the Old World, Italy and Britain. Rome, after much deliberation, decided that lowering the cost of borrowing was more important for him than fulfilling election promises. Indeed, the republic needs to attract decent money from abroad, and with a high yield of Italian bonds, it will have to pay a lot for resources. As a result, Eurosceptics decided to reduce the size of the budget deficit from 2.4% to 2% of GDP, which favorably affected the rates of the local debt market.

Of course, there are a lot of dark spots, including Brexit, the ability of Germany's automobile industry to recover, as well as the course of negotiations between Washington and Beijing, but most importantly, the euro has reasons for optimism. It is supported by the acceleration of average wages against the background of improving the state of the eurozone labor market. If inflation starts to please the ECB, the Central Bank will have arguments for starting monetary policy normalization, and this is a completely different story.

Technically, the combination of the "Three Indians" and "Splash and Regiment" patterns on the 1-2-3 base, if successfully overcome the resistance by 1.1465, could lead to a reversal of the downward trend and to the implementation of target by 88.6% for the Shark. Since the bulls failed to consolidate above an important level, the likelihood of further consolidation increases.

EUR / USD, the daily chart

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on December 21. The UK economy showed weak growth in line with the forecast.

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The pound calmly reacted to the data on GDP growth for the 3rd quarter of this year, continuing to trade in the side channel slightly above the support level of 1.2646. As long as trade is conducted above this level, the demand for the British pound will remain, and the main task will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2707, which could not be done in the first half of the day. Only this will resume the uptrend and lead to new highs in the area of 1.2755 and 1.2810, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the scenario of GBP / USD decline in the second half of the day is below the support of 1.2646, and this can happen after the release of good statistics on the American economy, you can take a long look at the lows of 1.2592 and 1.2556.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Short positions in the pound are best to look for after an unsuccessful fixing above the resistance level of 1.2707. A strong report on US GDP growth may lead to a repeated test and a breakdown of support at 1.2646, which will increase the pressure on GBP / USD and collapse the pair to a minimum in the area of 1.2592 and 1.2556, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a pound rising above 1.2707, which is unlikely, short positions can be opened immediately to rebound from a new weekly high of 1.2755.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which more indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on December 21. Euro buyers did not cope. The market goes to the bears

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Euro buyers were unable to cope with the task of fixing above 1.1471, to which I called my attention in the morning forecast, which, as expected, led to a sale. At the moment, it is best to return to long positions after reducing and updating the support level of 1.1402, but the main task for the second half of the day will be the breakthrough of the resistance level of 1.1438. Only after this, the demand for EUR / USD will return more substantial, which will lead the pair to the area of a weekly high of 1.1471-80, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The bears have worked perfectly on the resistance level of 1.1471, from which I recommended to open short positions. Currently, traders are waiting for the release of US GDP data, which could lead to another downward wave of the euro in the support area of 1.1402 and 1.1377, where I recommend fixing the profits. The formation of a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.1438 will also be a signal to sell EUR / USD in the afternoon. In the case of weak data on the American economy, I recommend selling the euro immediately to rebound from a maximum of 1.1471-80.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30-day and 50-day averages, which indicates the end of the upward correction for the euro.

Bollinger bands

If the euro rises in the second half of the day, it is best to return to sales from the Bollinger Bands average indicator around 1.1445.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Control over oil is lost, WTI will test $ 40 by the end of the year. What's next?

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Since at the beginning of December, OPEC and its allies announced a supply cut of 1.2 million barrels per day from the beginning of January, oil has fallen by almost $ 6. On the eve, the quotes updated to 14-month lows. In other words, prices could not get support from the conclusion of the transaction.

However, energy officials, in particular Saudi Minister Khalid Al-Falih, expected something similar. According to their calculations, the oil should have become moderately cheaper at the end of this year and at the beginning of the next, until the plans to reduce production will not yield a return. The scale of the current collapse was not in their plans.

Over the past two months, oil has fallen almost in half. Indeed, the loss of $ 30 per barrel from the four-year highs of the beginning of October (at that time WTI was trading at $ 77, and Brent, at almost $ 87) is staggering. However, a drop of more than 40% does not bother the oil stores now. Their minds are agitated by another question, where will prices go next?

Raw materials analysts are preparing the market for a new round of decline, since the current surplus is caused not only by shale oil, but also by high production in Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation. The specter of a slowing global economy also scares markets.

"Bullish" oil-adjusted investors start to shiver only with one thought that the quotes will drop below $ 40. It is worth recalling that during the first round of the shale crisis, black gold was quoted at $ 25.

In such extreme "bearish" conditions, as now, traders will ignore the positive news and begin to focus on sales drivers. In this scenario, the chances of seeing oil at $ 30 increase. This will require a proportional deterioration of the fundamental and technical factors, including the world economy.

Given the record production in the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the trend may continue.

The trading community adheres to a "bearish" point of view. Experts believe that now, control over the market is completely lost, and do not exclude that WTI will test the mark of $ 40 before the end of the year.

What will happen to oil in 2019?

Volatility in the market now remains extremely high. It is very likely that the players will meet her next year. Oil prices in January and the following months will be influenced by a number of positive and negative factors.

Bearish factors.

The most significant risk for the oil refinery is the global economic downturn, alarm bells have already been received. If growth is slowing in China, it is declining at all in some European countries. The emerging markets are dominated by a currency crisis, and volatility has spread to all financial markets in the world. The situation is exacerbated by the tendency to tighten the policy of the Central Bank.

A portion of the negative will bring American slate. In the new year, the IEA expects an increase in supply from non-OPEC countries by another 1.5 million barrels per day, which is higher than world demand. The bulk of supplies will come from the US, where a new wave of the shale revolution is predicted.

There are doubts that the terms of the deal to reduce production will not be fully implemented. In the Russian Federation, they have already warned that the country will not reduce large volumes in January. The Saudis can assume the main burden, since they are very interested in expensive oil, but not a fact.

"Bullish" factors.

The largest and most obvious risk here is Iran. The US has provided benefits to some Iranian oil buyers, which end in May. Recall the last time the November deadline approached, the Brent barrel cost above $ 80. Trump's team went on such a cunning move to put pressure on prices, while from the beginning of the year, they talked about the intention to reduce the export of Iranian oil to zero. It is unlikely that the White House will decide to repeat this scenario when the supply surplus returned to the market. The US is now free hand for a tougher line of conduct.

Unstable Libya, due to the actions of the rebels, reduced production by 400 thousand barrels per day over several weeks, having increased this figure to multi-year highs. The chances that Libya will surprise the market with new unexpected losses are still high, although the country had previously made bold forecasts for an increase in production in 2019.

Venezuela, finishing the year with a production rate of 1 million barrels per day (600 thousand barrels less than in January), there is nothing to lose. It is unlikely that someone from the analysts will undertake to predict the recovery of production in this problematic country in the short and even medium term.

The transaction to reduce production volumes by 1.2 million barrels per day will help eliminate most of the surplus, but this can be delayed by the time. OPEC + at the next meeting in Vienna, which will take place in the middle of the year, is likely to extend the measures until the end of the year to ensure price stability.

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Lack of liquidity "shakes" the US stock market

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The US stock market, currently experiencing one of the strongest collapses in recent years, faced a lack of liquidity. This phenomenon is called "ghost", terrifying investors.

This phenomenon was often recalled by market players who made it during periods of collapse, but in the last decade there was plenty of liquidity in the market. As a result, most traders have forgotten what this "ghost" is. Many of them, especially beginners, have never experienced a lack of liquidity. Note that in such extreme conditions did not work and trading robots, which now account for over 50% of the market.

According to analysts, the more they fall in the price of paper, the less liquidity becomes. Experts believe that the current situation in the stock market is worse than during the collapse in February 2018, provoked by a surge in volatility.

In the outgoing year, liquidity in some stocks declined significantly and for some stocks fell below historic lows. Experts blame the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) for lack of liquidity. Analysts do not exclude that the regulator deliberately brought down the markets in order to influence the impressive financial "bubble".

However, every cloud has a silver lining: amid the flight from risky assets, Washington managed to solve one of the important issues, the increase in the cost of government loans. With ten-year treasuries yielding 3% or more, the US state budget experienced a number of problems due to rising interest payments, but now the figure has decreased to 2.8% from the previous 3.2%. Thanks to this, the situation has stabilized, experts say.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 21, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 a few times.

The EUR/USD pair has been trapped between the price levels of 1.1420 and 1.1270 waiting for a breakout since November 5.

This week, based on the recent bullish price action, bullish persistence above 1.1420 enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.1520 and 1.1610.

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USD/CAD analysis for December 21, 2018

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The USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3540. According to the H4 time frame, I have found that buyers are in control and there is a short-term trend, which is a sign of strength. I have also found a rising LBR oscillator and upward Keltner channel, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.3592.

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Bitcoin analysis for December 21, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found that the BTC is trading inside of the range between the price of $4,135 (resistance) and the price of $3.852 (support). My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction. If you see a breakout of resitance, the upward target will be set at the price of $4.360. If you see a valid breakout of support, the downward target will be set at the price of $3.615.

Support/Resistance

$4.135– Intraday resistance

$3.852– Intraday support

$4.360 – Objective target upward

$3.615 – Objective target downward

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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EUR/USD analysis for December 21, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1423. According to the M15 time frame, I found that EUR/USD is trading below the Ichimoku cloud and the daily pivot (1.1433), which is a sign that sellers are in control on the intraday prospective. I also found a confirmed triple bottom formation on the point and figure chart, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1383 and at the price of 1.1320.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 21, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.3427 and 1.3500. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.3427, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.3500. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3427/1.3500. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above the golden ratio (1.3427) with the first target at the level of 1.3618. Furthermore, if the trend breaks through the first resistance level of 1.3618, we will see the pair climbing towards the major resistance of 1.3709. It would also be wise to find a place for a stop loss order; it should be set below the second support of 1.3427.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 21, 2018

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Since Mid-November, Successive Lower Highs were observed below the depicted H4 downtrend line around the price levels of 1.2870 and 1.2780.

Shortly after, there was a quick bearish decline towards the price level of 1.2500 before bullish recovery took place on December 12.

A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern is being demonstrated on the H4 chart with a neckline located around 1.2660-1.2680. Bullish persistence above 1.2660-1.2680 is mandatory for confirmation. Pattern confirmation projects a bullish target towards 1.2880 again.

Yesterday's price movement demonstrates the recent bullish breakout above the depicted downtrend line. This enhances the bullish side of the market as well.

Please remember that the current bullish movement towards the price zone of 1.2680-1.2700 should be monitored as this price zone corresponds to the backside of the broken consolidation range.

On the other hand, the current scenario may pursue as a bearish flag pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2660 (corresponding to a prominent daily low) is maintained on a daily basis. Projected target for the bearish flag pattern would be located around 1.2300.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 21, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair broke resistance at 1.2604 which turned into strong support yesterday. This level coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement which is expected to act as major support today. Equally important, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward, while the moving average (100) is headed to the upside. Accordingly, the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the EMA 100 is pointing to the uptrend. This suggests that the pair will probably go above the daily pivot point (1.2644) in the coming hours. The GBP/USD pair will demonstrate strength following a breakout of the high at 1.2682. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 1.2644 with the first target at 1.2682. Then, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the 1.2682 mark and further to the 1.2739 levels. The level of 1.2739 will act as strong resistance, and the double top is already set at 1.2811. On the other hand, the daily strong support is seen at 1.2604. If the GBP/USD pair is able to break through the level of 1.2604, the market will decline further to 1.2557.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for December 21. Equality of waves a and c, do bulls have strength?

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Thursday, the EUR / USD pair added about 70 bp more. Thus, a successful attempt to break through the level of 38.2% indicates that the pair is ready to rise. The wave, although it took a rather complex and non-standard form, continues its construction. A successful attempt to break through the level of 100.0% will lead to its lengthening. An unsuccessful attempt of a breakthrough may lead to the completion of a correctional ascending structure starting on November 12.

Sales targets:

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1471 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair remains within the framework of building an upward wave with. An unsuccessful attempt to break 1.1471 may lead to the completion of the construction of this wave. Successful - to further increase, and in this variant I recommend to continue small purchases of the instrument with targets located around 1.1528, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 21. Pound stumbled upon a serious obstacle

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on December 20, the GBP / USD pair gained about 50 bp. However, the two attempts to break through the level of 100.0% in Fibonacci failed. Thus, there is reason to assume the completion of the upward correctional structure around the level of 100.0%. In the case of a breakthrough of this level, the correctional structure can take on a more complex and extended appearance. Otherwise, the tool may resume building a downtrend trend. News background still does not support pound sterling.

Shopping goals:

1.2696 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.2807 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2564 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.2398 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

A pair of GBP / USD can complete the construction of a three-wave structure. Only a successful attempt to break through the level of 100.0% will indicate a couple's readiness to continue growth, and I will recommend new purchases with targets located near the 1.2807 mark, which equals 76.4% Fibonacci. Otherwise, the pair may start building a new downward wave.

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Trading Plan 12/21/2018

Trading Plan 12/21/2018

The big picture: The dollar is falling.

The dollar declines after the Fed meeting.

What is the reason? It seems that the rate was raised by + 0.25%, new increases in the rate are likely, "school-wide", this is a strengthening of the currency.

Answer:

The first. The increase in the rate of + 0.25% has long been known. The market has put it in prices. The second is the main thing. Fed forecast for the economy. The Fed lowered its forecast for US GDP growth for 2019. The Fed lowered its inflation forecast for 2019. The Fed lowered its forecast and this is important, at a rate of up to + 2.9% at the end of 2019. That is, from the current + 2.375% there are two increases of + 0.25% for 2019, and most likely, this is the end of the year, and then provided that the general crisis does not start.

In addition, the ECB may raise rates in the summer of 2019.

Thus, the reason for stopping for a dollar is clear.

Pound: We are ready to buy from 1.2710.

If you do not need to open positions in your trade in the coming days, it makes sense to think about the rest until the first week of January.

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EUR / USD: The demand for the euro is unlikely to continue. US Treasury Secretary disappointed by Fed action

Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Terner Mnuchin tried to reassure traders and investors by making a number of statements regarding the growth prospects of the US economy after the Federal Reserve System signaled a slowdown in its growth, which led to a rapid surge in volatility, especially the EUR / USD pair.

As we can see, the euro continued its strengthening against the US dollar and reached almost the 15th figure, after which there was a small downward correction, which was completely bought off by the end of the day.

Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that it was not appropriate to say whether the Fed made the right decision and believes that the market is disappointed with the statements made by the Fed Chairman. According to Mnuchin, it is impossible to look only at the Fed's mid-range forecasts, but rather to take into account a wide range of other forecasts, since the Fed determines its policy based only on economic data.

The Treasury Secretary firmly stated that he believes in US GDP growth this year at 3% or higher. He is also confident that he will be able to ensure GDP growth by 3% in 2019.

All these statements, of course, do not coincide with the economic realities and fundamental data that have recently entered the market. You can say anything, but in reality it is clear that the US economy is rather overheated, and raising interest rates will slow down its growth in the future.

Yesterday's fundamental data are evidence of this.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 over the week from December 9 to December 15, reaching 214,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 215,000. Despite this, supply in the US labor market remains extremely limited, which is reflected in the dismissal of employees. The problem remains in highly qualified personnel. Let me remind you that the unemployment rate in the United States is 3.7%.

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The number of secondary applications for the week from December 2 to 8 increased by 27,000 and amounted to 1,668,000.

Data on production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is also alarming, as the activity decreased to a two-year minimum. Despite this, the growth of activity is maintained, albeit at a slower pace. As indicated in the report of the regional reserve bank, the business activity index in December 2018 dropped to 9.4 points against 12.9 points in November.

The index of leading indicators of the Conference Board increased in November of this year, which is a good sign. Leading data showed that the indicator increased by 0.2% and amounted to 111.8 points. However, it should be noted that, despite the growth, the overall growth rate of the index in the past two months has slowed.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, much will depend on how the buyers of risky assets today cope with the resistance level of 1.1470. An unsuccessful fixation above this range may lead to the formation of a larger downward correction, with a return to the area of support levels 1.1400 and 1.1380. If demand continues and is above 1.1470 resistance, you can count on updating monthly highs of 1.1510 and 1.1550.

Oil quotes continue to update their lows, and almost reached the level of $ 46 for the brand WTI.

Immediately after this, it was reported that Saudi Arabia would reduce oil production more than initially agreed in the OPEC transaction. Saudi Arabia is expected to cut oil production by about 300,000 barrels per day versus the previously announced 250,000 barrels per day. The new plan involves a reduction in total oil production by OPEC by 3% instead of 2.5%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bank of England in the grip of uncertainty

After summing up the FOMC meeting and in the absence of important macroeconomic data, the issues of budget formation come to the fore. On the eve, Trump tried to reach an agreement with the Congress on the budget for 2019, at stake was the termination of funding for the work of the government already this coming Saturday.

Given the complexity of the issue, there is no final decision, but the interim measures taken will allow the government to finance another seven weeks, until February 8, 2019.

Today, final data on GDP for the 4th quarter, the November dynamics in orders for durable goods and data on personal income and expenditures will be published. The last parameter is important in assessing inflation expectations and can cause increased volatility.

Eurozone

The euro in the last decade of December will hold with a high degree of uncertainty, in any case, the chances of a traditional Christmas rally are low due to the lack of macroeconomic incentives. In November, inflation in the eurozone fell below the target level for the first time in six months, largely due to lower energy prices, and, more worryingly, core inflation also has a downward trend.

Nevertheless, this trend is not cause for concern, most banks in their forecasts see the prospect of rising inflation after a short period of stagnation. Here, the basis for the positive is the rise in average wages, which, in accordance with the Phillips rule, will spur price increases in the coming months. Also in favor of the euro and the likely completion of the PMI decline period, which was observed for almost the whole 2018.

Today, EUR / USD may try to overcome the wide resistance zone of 1.1495 / 1520 if the macroeconomic data from the US turns out to be worse than expected.

Great Britain

The Bank of England left the monetary policy unchanged, because, due to the strong growth of uncertainty regarding Brexit, expectations largely depend on political, not economic factors.

The committee also noted that there are positive shifts in inflation expectations, since the fastest growth in average wages in almost 10 years and a weak increase in labor productivity will lead to an increase in inflationary pressure, despite a slight decrease due to falling oil prices.

At the moment, the markets see a 60% chance of a one-time quarter-per-cent rate increase next year, but this data cannot be taken into account due to the fact that the Bank of England's response to the exit scenario "will not be automatic" there are possible changes in any direction, both in the direction of monetary policy easing, and in the direction of tightening.

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Uncertainty about Brexit led to a reduction in business investment, which, paired with the tightening of global financial conditions and a decrease in business activity in the eurozone, led to a slowdown in economic growth.

The parliament, having failed to find a solution under the agreement, went on vacation, the voting will take place after January 14, a little more than three months remain before leaving the EU, and the scenarios for the development of events differ on a critically large number of parameters. For example, on March 29, a withdrawal from the EU may not occur at all, that is, the date may be postponed to a later date if any unaccounted factors arise. A second referendum may be held, although the likelihood of such a move looks low so far, new elections may be initiated, or Labor's main opponents of the deal will change their position, and, finally, there may be a way out without a deal. It is the course of events that will be decisive in evaluating the monetary policy of the Bank of England, and therefore the predictions for the pound.

On Friday morning, GBP / USD has no direction and continues to trade in the sideways range. Today final data on GDP in Q3 will be published, no changes are expected, the absence of important macroeconomic data will keep the pound in the range. An attempt to reach the resistance of 1.2705 is likely during the day, but there are no sufficient grounds for the development of the upward movement.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD pair: plan for the European session on December 21. GDP data may affect the British pound

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Today is expected to yield data on the UK economy, which may return to the market of sellers. However, while the trade is conducted above the middle of the channel 1.2646, the demand for the British pound will continue and the main task will be the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2707, the uptrend will resume and lead to new highs in the 1.2755 and 1.2810 area, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario of reducing theGBP/USD pair, the GDP data below support of 1.2646, you can take a closer look at long positions from the lows of 1.2592 and 1.2556.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Short positions in the pound are best sought after the unsuccessful fixing above the resistance of 1.2707, as it was yesterday. A weak report on the state of the economy can lead to a repeated test and a breakdown of support at 1.2646, which will increase the pressure on GBP / USD and derail the pair to a minimum in the area of 1.2592 and 1.2556, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a pound rising above 1.2707, which is unlikely, short positions can be opened immediately to rebound from a new weekly high of 1.2755.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted just above the 30- and 50-day moving average, with a short-term advantage of buyers of the British pound.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on market entry. Only a breakthrough of the lower boundary of the indicator in the 1.2640 area can lead to a large sale of the pound.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. Friday is an important day for the dollar.

The pair of euro-dollar entrenched in the 14th figure, but for further upward movement, an additional impulse is needed, an additional news driver. The rich economic calendar of today will play a key role in this regard. Today, the dollar will either receive support, or market participants will increase sales of the US currency.

Let me remind you that at its December meeting, the Fed has reduced the approximate number of rate hikes next year to two. At the same time, he lowered forecasts for GDP growth and inflation, thus justifying the decision to slow down the tightening of monetary policy. The dollar's reaction was relatively low-key. The regulator chose not the softest scenario, so the US currency held back the onslaught of sellers, although it fell in price across the market. Nevertheless, the risk of further collapse still exists.MpijNrpUHHX9TMkfxsZ2w-bC84_3yK9-LdbvV3f-The fact is that the point forecast is not a completely reliable reference point. For example, in September, when this forecast reflected a threefold increase in the rate in 2019, many experts doubted its implementation, since even then there were alarming signals indicating a slowdown in economic growth. USA. The results of the December meeting confirmed the concerns of traders, but did not dispel doubts about the future actions of the Fed. In other words, now many market participants doubt that the Fed will double the rate next year. In their opinion, everything will depend on the dynamics of key indicators.

Actually, Jerome Powell indirectly confirmed this assumption. On Wednesday, he stated that in 2019, the US economy would not be so "favorable" to the Fed's forecasts, as it was this year. In particular, inflation has already presented an "unpleasant surprise", as its growth dynamics are contrary to expectations American regulator. In other words, if other indicators show similar behavior, then even more modest intentions of the Fed can remain on paper. Here you can recall the years 2015 and 2016, when the Fed for months declared a "hawkish" attitude, but the economic situation forced Janet Yellen to move the decision date. As a result, during this period, the regulator raised the rate only twice, at the final December meetings. To date, the market rightly fears deja vu, given Powell's insecure position.

Thus, today's releases may reinforce investor concerns about further Fed action. The fact is that today several quite important indicators will be published in the States. Firstly, this is the volume of orders for durable goods, secondly, the final estimate of GDP for the 3rd quarter, and thirdly, the index of expenditures on personal consumption, one of the favorite indicators of members of the American regulator.

The release of data on orders for durable goods is leading for such a component of GDP as investment, so its dynamics can seriously affect the mood of traders. In October, this indicator fell into the negative area, reaching -4.4%. This is the weakest result since July 2017. According to general forecasts, the indicator is expected to recover today, up to 1.8%, although, according to some experts, it will not leave the negative area, thereby putting pressure on the greenback.jnaEQOJftrQKtp2gcKs8bqU7GLhKqs5dPW37MMcaBut the rate of US GDP growth is not likely to be revised, either downward or upward. That is, the figure should remain at around 3.5%. Any deviation from this target will have a noticeable impact on the US currency. The same applies to the price index of GDP, the indicator should remain at around 1.7%.

But the strongest volatility, in my opinion, will cause the release of Core PCE Price Index, that is, the index of personal consumption expenditures. It is believed that this is one of the main indicators, which is closely monitored by the Fed, so its slowdown will become an alarming signal for dollar bulls.

The consensus forecast indicates that the indicator will demonstrate minimal growth, up to 0.3% on a monthly basis and up to 1.9% per annum. And if on a monthly basis, the index has actually been marking time for two years (in the range of 0% -0.3%), then in annual terms it has been decreasing since August. Therefore, if today's figures do not meet expectations, the dollar will fall under the wave of sales, even if the data on orders and GDP come out at the forecast level. If the American statistics is in the "green zone", interest in the dollar may return, although the resumption of the rally is still out of the question.

Another factor that may affect today's trading is a possible "shatdown". Yesterday evening, deputies of the House of Representatives voted for the republican version of the interim state budget, while approving Trump's idea of allocating 5 billion hryvnia to build a wall on the border with Mexico. Previously, the Senate voted for a different version of the interim budget, which did not include the costs of this construction. Now the bill will again be returned to the Senate for consideration: if the deputies do not support it, then the work of several federal departments may be terminated on Saturday night. This fact will exert background pressure on the US dollar.

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Technically, the euro-dollar pair still needs to overcome the mark of 1.1515 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart) to confirm the strength of the upward movement. In this case, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will generate a bullish "Line Parade" signal. But the support level is the mark 1.1380, this is the lower boundary of the above cloud.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair: plan for the European session on December 21. Demonstration performance of major players

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The growth of the euro was quite intensive yesterday but the current demand is very unlikely. Buyers need to get above 1.1471, which will lead to a new wave of purchases and to update the highs already in the area of resistance 1.1515 and 1.1548, where I recommend taking profits. Also, purchases can be viewed subject to the formation of a false breakdown in the area of intermediate support at 1.1438 or to rebound from larger areas of 1.1407 and 1.1385. Important data will be for Germany and US GDP, which will be released today.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears will count on unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.1471, which will lead to the formation of a false breakdown and a wave of sales of the euro with the update of intermediate support at 1.1438. A consolidation below of which will be a priority task for the first half of the day. Leaving under a minimum of 1.1438 can only lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a larger downward correction of the euro to the support area of 1.1407 and 1.1385, where I recommend taking profits. If the data for the US turns out negative, which will be released today, then it is best to open short positions in EUR / USD on a rebound from the new monthly highs around 1.1515 and 1.1548.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a continued growth of the European currency.

Bollinger bands

The upward trend is limited by the intermediate resistance level in the form of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the 1.1475 area from which sales can be viewed. Breakthrough of the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1427 will lead to a larger sale of the euro.

More details about the forecast can be found in the video review.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 21st of December. The trading system "Regression Channels". The pound again shows signs of readiness for a new

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 83.9448

The currency pair GBP / USD with great difficulty continues to trade slightly above the MA. Murray's "8/8" pair could not be overcome. There are no grounds for the growth of the British currency. The British Parliament went on vacation. The issue with Brexit is not resolved. The issue with the next vote of no confidence in Theresa May is not resolved. In general, there are still a lot of uncertainties. And in the next two weeks, the period of the New Year and Christmas holidays, they will continue. In the meantime, there is every reason to believe that the EU and the UK have begun to prepare for the "tough" version of Brexit. Both sides understand that the British Parliament's rejection of the Checkers plan is extremely high, as well as the likelihood that Theresa May will leave her post. Therefore, they began to prepare for the worst scenario. But, as we already wrote earlier, for the British currency now any decision of parliament will be a positive moment. Pound needs certainty, as uncertainty is worse than negative news. On Friday, December 21, the UK is scheduled to publish GDP for the third quarter. Forecasts are absolutely neutral, because data from the States, in particular, a report on orders for durable goods, can have a greater impact on the movement of a currency pair.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2634

S2 - 1.2573

S3 - 1.2512

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2695

R2 - 1.2756

R3 - 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to be held above the MA. Thus, formally, purchase orders with targets of 1.2695 and 1.2817 are relevant now. But the growth potential of the British currency is very small, so it is recommended to trade in a rise in small lots.

Sell orders are recommended to open if the pair consolidates below the moving average line. In this case, the targets for the downward movement will be the levels of 1.2573 and 1.2512.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 21st of December. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The effect of the Fed meeting ended, what next?

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 118.1604

The EUR / USD currency pair maintains an upward trend on the last trading day of the week. Yesterday was a day with the full advantage of the European currency, as market participants from Europe did not have the opportunity to respond to the Fed's decisions the day before. It should be noted that the pair reached another important resistance level, Murray's level of "8/8" - 1.1475. If this level is not overcome, a downtrend may resume. Recently, the Eurocurrency has already risen in price quite noticeably, given the fact that no particularly positive data, apart from resolving the issue of the Italian budget, came from the European Union. At the same time, there are also hopes for the end of a long downtrend. Today, there will be no important publications in the Eurozone, but a whole package of various macroeconomic reports will arrive from the States. First, these are durable goods orders. Last month, this indicator fell by 4.4%, an increase of 1.6% is expected. Secondly, it is data on personal expenses and incomes of Americans. Expected minimum gains of both indicators at 0.3%. Also the index of expenditure on personal consumption, annual data on GDP and the price index of GDP will be published. And late in the evening will be the speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1444

S2 - 1.1414

S3 - 1.1383

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1475

R2 - 1.1505

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues to move up, as indicated by Heikin Ashi. Thus, it is now recommended to trade on the increase with the objectives of 1.1475 and 1.1505. Heikin Ashi's reversal will indicate a downward correction round.

It is recommended to open sell positions not earlier than traders overcome the moving average line. In this case, the bears will take the initiative, and the first target for the shorts will be the level of 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for December 21. Eurocurrency has passed an important resistance

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair consolidated above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423. As a result, on December 21, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497. Reversing the quotations from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. Overcoming divergences today are not observed in any indicator.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair continues the growth process in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.1553, after rebounding from the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Rebounding the course of the pair from the correction level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Fixing quotations above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the pair's chances for further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.1497 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 100.0% since the pair completed the closure above the level of 1.1423.

New sales of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1423 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for December 21. The pound cannot pass the level of 1.27. New fall?

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart performed the third return to the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662. The next rebound from this Fibo level will again allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2491. There are no ripening divergences today. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of the growth of quotations in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2812.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair completed two more rebounds from the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696 and a turn in favor of the US dollar. As a result, a fall began in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.2566. There are no emerging divergences today. Fixing a pair of quotations above the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the British currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2809.

The Fib net is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with a target of 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 100.0% if the pair closes above the correction level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.2566 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 100.0% since the pair completed the rebound from the level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast of GBP / USD for December 21, 2018

GBP / USD

Yesterday, the British pound did not share the optimism of other counter-dollar currencies in connection with the imminent danger of a country leaving the EU without a deal. This was also said by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney at a meeting of the monetary policy regulator. The markets almost did not respond to the results of the meeting of the Central Bank, as the political situation is clear to all market participants.

Today, the UK balance of payments for the 3rd quarter will be released, a forecast of -21.7 billion against -20.3 billion in the previous period. In the US, the volume of orders for durable goods in November can grow by 1.6%, personal spending by consumers, as well as income, is expected to grow by 0.3%.

Technical factors can maintain fundamental pressure today. On the daily scale, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator since mid-November for the third time touches the border with the growth area, there may be a reversal from this line downwards. On the four-hour chart, there is a decreasing divergence. Trendline resistance at 1.2723 may not be achieved. After the price breaks through the support of the Kruzenshtern line on the four-hour chart (1.2608), the target of 1.2500 opens.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis for #USDX (US dollar index) for December 21

Large-scale graphics:

Since February of this year, the dollar quotes changed course and moved to the "north" of the chart. To date, the trend is not completed. A preliminary calculation allows you to wait for the final rise of the rate to the values of the beginning of 2017.

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Medium scale graphics:

An unfinished wave of November 12 corrects the last trend section. The wave is shaped like a standard plane.

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Small-scale graphics:

From December 14, the index quotes in the larger model form the final part (C).

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming week, the dollar will gradually decline, allowing major currencies to grow in their major pairs. A change in trend is expected in the first half of next month.

Resistance zones:

- 97.50 / 97.70

Support areas:

- 96.00 / 95.80

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY on December 21, 2018

USD / JPY

The Japanese yen did its best to keep under pressure from the stock market but did not withstand yesterday's low blow. The American Dow Jones index collapsed 1.99%, the S & P500 sank 1.58%, at the moment the price fell by 163 points and exactly worked out the support of the downward price channel.

At the moment, the price is trying to reach above the level of 111.40 (minimum on October 26), perhaps it will succeed, since quite good data on expenditures and incomes of consumers are forecasted for the USA, by 0.3% in the November estimate. But a lot will depend on the stock market itself, which does not yet feel supported. Yen can once again test this lower limit of the price channel. But, we believe, on this the fall of the yen will end and there will be growth. At least until January 14, when the Brexit vote in the English Parliament.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis EUR / JPY pair for the week of December 21

Large scale graph:

From the end of May of the current year, the bullish wave structure unfolds on the chart, designed to return the direction of the main trend to the upward course.

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Medium scale graph:

Since October 26, the flat mood dominates on the chart, making it difficult to identify wave structures. This is necessary to increase the wave level to the required scale.

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Small scale graph:

The downward wave of December 13 has a small potential, completing a larger structure. The price is within the boundaries of the pivot zone of a large timeframe.

Forecast and recommendations:

For all trading styles, the most promising is the search for reversal signals to enter long positions. The probability of coincidence in time of the beginning of active movements with the release of a block of important economic news is high.

Resistance zones:

- 131.20 / 131.70

Support areas:

- 127.70 / 127.20

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A - B - C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Should we expect further growth of the euro?

In recent days, the course of the single European currency has received significant support and added to the US dollar. This was facilitated by the expectation of the ECB's decision to stop the European economy support program this month. Some certainty regarding the Brexit issue amid the promising softer monetary policy announced by the Fed following the regulator's meeting for the next 2019.

Since the end of October, the main currency pair has moved in a well-defined range of 1.1270-1.1460 with the exception of short-term price "shots" up or down. This dynamic was provided by a number of reasons. First and foremost was the uncertainty in the matter of reaching a compromise between Brussels and Rome on the country's budget. The risks of this process amid rising yields of Italian government bonds put pressure on the euro, which was already aggravated by the lack of clarity in reaching an agreement on Brexit between the European Union and the United Kingdom. As soon as the budget problem was resolved and it became clear what threatens the exit of Britain from the EU, the euro received support and even tried to break out of the above range on Thursday.

The single currency was also helped by the local weakening of the US dollar against the backdrop of expectations that the Fed may stop raising interest rates under the influence of signals about weakening economic growth in the third quarter, as well as stabilizing inflationary pressures and risks of a further fall in national economic growth. However, the American regulator adjusted its plans for the next year, informing that it was going to raise the rates on the promised of three but only two times, on the whole, continued to be optimistic about the situation in the country's economy and its prospects. This put pressure on the single currency through falling demand for risky assets in world markets.

Evaluating the emerging picture on the eve of the Christmas and New Year holidays, we believe that the EUR/USD pair will most likely remain in the above range and in the future, it is unlikely to grow significantly.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1460, remaining in the range of 1.1270-1.1460. If the price does not overcome the upper limit of the range, it can turn around and rush to its lower limit.

The USD/JPY pair is recovering against the background of closing short positions. It can grow to 111.65, but if this mark stands, one should expect a reversal of the price and the pair to fall to 110.65.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for December 21, 2018 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, a downward movement is possible with the first target of 1.1424 - a rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, a downward movement is possible with the first target of 1.1424 - a rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December 21

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the upward structure of December 14 will continue to develop after the breakdown of 1.1484. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we should continue moving upwards after the breakdown of 1.2680. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we follow the downward structure of December 17 as the main one. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of December 14. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we expect the downward movement after the breakdown of 127.00, and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we have expanded the potential for the downward cycle from December 13 to the level of 139.15.

Forecast for December 21:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1549, 1.1520, 1.1484, 1.1437, 1.1414 and 1.1384. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of December 14. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1484. In this case, the target is 1.1520 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1549, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1437 - 1.1414 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.1384 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of December 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1484 Take profit: 1.1518

Buy 1.1522 Take profit: 1.1547

Sell: 1.1435 Take profit: 1.1416

Sell: 1.1412 Take profit: 1.1386

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2865, 1.2813, 1.2741, 1.2679, 1.2592, 1.2552, 1.2517, 1.2475 and 1.2417. Here, we continue to follow the formation of the ascending structure of December 11. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2679. In this case, the goal is 1.2741 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.2741 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2813. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.2865, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 1.2592 - 1.2552. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2517 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.2475.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 11, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2680 Take profit: 1.2740

Buy: 1.2744 Take profit: 1.2813

Sell: 1.2591 Take profit: 1.2552

Sell: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2517

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.9922, 0.9900, 0.9886, 0.9863, 0.9843, 0.9817 and 0.9802. Here, we are following the downward structure of December 17th. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9863 - 0.9843 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.9817. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.9802, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 0.9886 - 0.9900. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9922 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of December 17.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9886 Take profit: 0.9900

Buy: 0.9903 Take profit: 0.9922

Sell: 0.9861 Take profit: 0.9843

Sell: 0.9840 Take profit: 0.9820

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are 112.06, 111.59, 111.34, 110.99, 110.65 and 110.30. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of December 14. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 110.99 - 110.65 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target. In this case, the target is 110.30 and we expect a rollback to the top from this level.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 111.34 - 111.59 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 112.06 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of December 14.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.34 Take profit: 111.57

Buy: 111.63 Take profit: 112.00

Sell: 110.99 Take profit: 110.67

Sell: 110.62 Take profit: 110.30

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3614, 1.3557, 1.3521, 1.3434, 1.3405, 1.3361 and 1.3318. Here, we are following the development of the bottom-up structure from December 7th. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3521 - 1.3557 and the breakdown of the last value will allow expecting a movement towards a potential target of 1.3614, after reaching this level, we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3434 - 1.3405 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3361 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.3318.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of December 7th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3521 Take profit: 1.3555

Buy: 1.3560 Take profit: 1.3612

Sell: 1.3434 Take profit: 1.3405

Sell: 1.3403 Take profit: 1.3363

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7186, 0.7148, 0.7127, 0.7075, 0.7049 and 0.7015. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of December 13. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.7075 - 0.7049 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 0.7015, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7127 - 0.7148 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7186 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7127 Take profit: 0.7146

Buy: 0.7150 Take profit: 0.7185

Sell: 0.7075 Take profit: 0.7052

Sell: 0.7047 Take profit: 0.7017

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 128.32, 127.91, 127.68, 127.00, 126.68 and 126.21. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of December 13. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 127.00 - 126.68 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target. In this case, the target is 126.21 and we expect a rollback to the top from this level.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 127.68 - 127.91 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 128.32 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 127.68 Take profit: 127.90

Buy: 127.94 Take profit: 128.30

Sell: 127.00 Take profit: 126.72

Sell: 126.65 Take profit: 126.21

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 142.73, 142.09, 141.55, 141.22, 140.57, 139.86 and 139.15. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of December 13. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 140.57 - 140.22 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 139.86. The breakdown of which, in turn, must be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement to the potential target of 139.15. From the level of 139.15, we expect a roll back up.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 141.22 - 141.55 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 142.09 and this level is the key support for the bottom. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 142.73.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.55 Take profit: 142.05

Buy: 142.12 Take profit: 142.70

Sell: 140.55 Take profit: 140.22

Sell: 139.83 Take profit: 139.30

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com