The task of the bulls EUR/USD is to keep 1.1180

The general fundamental background of Monday is very different from the fundamental picture of Friday. The panic subsided, risk appetite increased, the configuration of many currency pairs has changed. Events of a global nature still have priority over macroeconomic reports – and this fact today actually "saved" the single currency from the next downward turn. Despite the extremely weak data on the growth of European inflation, the EUR/USD pair showed modest corrective growth, following external fundamental factors.

Inflation in the eurozone has indeed disappointed. After a slight increase in February, the consumer price index returned to the January level, that is, at 1.4%. Core inflation fell even more than forecasts: most experts expected a decline to 0.9% (from the level of 1%), while the release came out at 0.8%. This is the weakest indicator growth rate since April 2018. On the one hand, this result did not come as a surprise after the extremely disappointing data from Germany. Let me remind you that in January, the German consumer price index in annual terms showed a positive trend (+ 1.5%), after a strong decline in January. However, in March, the indicators slowed down again, being at the level of 1.3%. European inflation actually repeats this trajectory.

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On the other hand, today's release served as another reminder that the European Central Bank will not soon recall tightening monetary policy, at least not this year. But if such rates of reduction in core inflation continue to persist, then the option of mitigating the parameters of monetary policy is not excluded.

However, the market actually ignored the most important release, focusing today on larger-scale events. First, there are prospects for ending the trade war between the United States and China. For several weeks, the parties remained silent, which provoked rather alarming rumors about the failure of the negotiation process. But at the weekend, it became known that Beijing did not renew the effect of retaliatory duties on American goods (namely, cars and automotive components from the United States at a rate of 25%), thereby extending the "pause" in effect from January 1. This suggests that China still intends to find a compromise with Washington because such a significant step was made on the eve of the next round of talks to be held this week in the US capital.

The experts also noted the fact that representatives of the Middle Kingdom responded quickly responded to the concerns of the American side about the prospects for the negotiation process. There is another example of a "curves" on the part of Beijing. Thus, the US authorities have repeatedly demanded that the government of the People's Republic of China limit the turnover of fentanyl - the strongest opioid analgesic, which is usually used in medicine as an anesthetic. Americans have long complained about the fact that China is the largest supplier of fentanyl to the US market, while this drug causes addiction, which often leads to an overdose, and often – to death. This issue, which has little to do with the trade war, was discussed for a long time and was resolved unexpectedly this week: just before the next round of China-US negotiations. The Chinese have significantly tightened control over the turnover of fentanyl and its derivatives – in fact, meeting the demands of the Americans.

In other words, traders once again had the hope of concluding a broad trade deal that would put an end to a trade war and — perhaps — slow the decline of the global economy. This fact weakened anti-risk sentiment and halted the growth of the dollar, which gained momentum last week.

In addition, the single currency is closely monitoring the pound, or rather – for Brexit. Tonight in the British Parliament will be held "signal voting", the results of which will allow understanding – whether soft Brexit is real in principle or not. A considerable number of rumors proliferate around this topic, most of which, surprisingly, is positive. Thus, according to one of the versions, during today's vote, Labor can support the so-called "Single Market Amendment 2.0". This amendment implies a "soft" version of Brexit and implies free movement in the region. If the interests of the Labor Party and the Conservatives converge on this option, then the chances for approval of the transaction will increase significantly in the near future. And although the market is already tired of being disappointed by the British Parliament, optimism over the pound today prevails. Partly due to this factor, the euro is also kept afloat, especially on the background of indecision of dollar bulls.

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Thus, all the factors listed above allow the EUR/USD pair to keep within the 12th figure, thereby maintaining the potential for corrective growth towards the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to 1.1290. The task of the EUR/USD bears has not changed since last week: they need to break through the lower line of the Bollinger Bands (1.1180), thereby entrenched in the 11th figure. Only in this case, it will be possible to talk about a more large-scale movement down to the main support level of 1.10.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 1, 2019

Bitcoin managed to sustain the bullish momentum despite the volatile situation and sudden spikes along the way. The price consolidated for a certain period at around $4,000. However, with strong bearish rejection it managed to set clear momentum with upward pressure.

The price is currently breaching above the recent high of $4,150 and expected to rally higher towards $4,250 resistance area without any further consolidation along the way. The dynamic level of 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line have been carrying the price higher. BTC price is still able to push towards $4,250. The Chikou Span has also cleared above the price line area. BTC is likely to find support along the way and reinforce upward pressure in the market. As for the current price formation, the 3rd Wave formation is on the way and it is expected to reach $4,250 before it consolidates and corrects itself. As the price remains above $4,000, BTC is going to trade under the impulsive bullish momentum.

SUPPORT: 3,800-80, 4,000

RESISTANCE: 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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EUR: Weak reports on manufacturing activity and inflation in the euro area did not hurt the euro

Surprisingly, the euro ignored very weak reports on manufacturing activity in the eurozone, as well as a slowdown in inflation. All this once again confirms the fact that the European Central Bank is acting in the right direction, keeping monetary policy at the current level, while continuing to stimulate the economy.

According to the data, the PMI purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector in Italy in March fell to the level of 47.4 points, which fully coincided with economists' forecasts. Back in February, the index was at the level of 47.7 points.

In France, the same index also moved below the level of 50 points and amounted to 39.7 points, while economists had expected this figure to be 49.8 points. Back in February, the PMI for the manufacturing sector was 51.5 points. A value above 50 points indicates an increase in activity, and lower - a slowdown.

The manufacturing sector in Germany continues to experience a downturn, and the situation in March deteriorated even further. According to the data, PMI Purchasing Managers Index for Germany's manufacturing sector in March dropped to 44.1 points, while it was forecast at 44.7 points. In February, the index was 47.6 points.

As for the eurozone as a whole, according to the Markit agency report, the PMI purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector of the eurozone in March was 47.5 points, while it was predicted to be 47.6 points. Back in February, the index was 49.3 points.

Markit said that the decline was due to the decline in new orders and export sales. Not without uncertainty around Brexit, as more and more companies reported a decrease in demand associated with Brexit and foreign trade.

As noted above, a weak report on inflation was also not news for the market. According to the EU Statistics Agency, the annual inflation in the eurozone in March continued to fall and move away from the target level of the European Central Bank by about 2.0%.

Thus, consumer prices in the eurozone in March this year increased by 1.4% compared with the same period last year. In February, an increase of 1.5%. Core inflation, which ignores volatile categories, has fallen even further. In March, it grew by only 0.8% after rising by 1% in February.

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As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the uncertainty around the further direction remains. Bulls have problems with resistance 1.1250, a breakthrough of which will return the trading tool to levels 1.1270 and 1.1300. With the scenario of further falling of the euro along the trend, especially after such weak data, a break of support at 1.1210 will only increase pressure on risky assets, which will lead EURUSD to the area of 1.1170 and 1.1120 lows.

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GBP/USD: plan for the American session on April 1. The pound regained a number of positions after falling last Friday

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Buyers have reached a large resistance of 1.3119, which I paid attention to in my morning review. In the second half of the day, breakdown and consolidation above the range of 1.1319 are required, which will lead to a new demand for the pound and an update of the highs of 1.3162 and 1.3212, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a downward correction scenario, the support will be at 1.3061. You can also look at the long positions on the rebound from the minimum 1.3011.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The bears showed themselves after the test of resistance 1.3119, to which I paid attention in the morning. Now, the sellers' first goal is to return to the support area of 1.3061, which was formed in the morning. Its breakdown will lead to a larger downward movement in the area of minimum 1.3011, where I recommend fixing the profits. When the growth scenario is above the high of 1.3119, it is best to rely on new sales to rebound from the resistance of 1.3162.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted above 30-day and 50-moving averages, which indicates the formation of an upward correction in the pound.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decline, support will be provided by the average Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3040.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Bitcoin analysis for April 01, 2019

BTC has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $4.125 with the strong momentum. We expect upward continuation.

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According to the H4 time – frame, we found that there is the successful rejection of the 20-exponential moving average (yellow line), which is sign that buyers supporting the Bitcoin. ADX is reading is about 40 level, which suggests strong trend condition. Resistance levels are seen at the price of $4.159 and $4.212. Short-term support is seen at the price of $4.020.

Trading recommendation: We are still holding long position from $4.070. Now, we moved our SL on breakeven so we got risk free position. Main targets are set at the price of $4.159 and $4.212.

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Analysis of Gold for April 01, 2019

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.295.00. The short-term trend is still bearish and we expect more downside in the next period.

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According to the H4 time – frame, we found that price is trying to test the downward sloping 20 exponential moving average (yellow line) but so far without success. The ADX read of 25 is suggesting us that Gold is in the modest downward trend. Key resistance levels are seen at $1.295.50 and $1.300.00. Key short-term support is seen at the price of $1.280.80.

Trading recommendation: We are neutral to bearish on the Gold. Watch for selling opportunities on the rally with target at $1.280.80.

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EUR/USD: plan for the American session on April 1. Weak activity in the manufacturing sector has limited the upward correction

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Buyers of the euro attempted to rise above the resistance of 1.1240, but weak reports indicating a drop in manufacturing activity in various eurozone countries limited the upside potential. For the bulls, a repeated return and consolidation above the level of 1.1240 is required, which will open up the possibility of further correction to the highs of 1.1269 and 1.1294, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a further decline in the euro in the second half of the day, which may occur against the background of a good report on US retail, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakdown from the lower border of the side channel 1.1211 or on a rebound from a minimum of 1.1176.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The bears coped with the task for the first half of the day and formed a false breakdown in the area of resistance 1.1240. While trading is below the 1.1240 range, pressure on the euro will continue, and the bearish target will again be at least around 1.1208, a breakthrough of which will lead to a larger EUR/USD sale to the support area of 1.1176, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of EUR/USD returns to the resistance level of 1.1240 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1269 and 1.1294.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-medium moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

An upward correction on the euro will be formed in case of a break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the region of 1.1250. A break of the lower border in the 1.1211 area will lead to a new wave of EUR / USD decline.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR and GBP: The UK has a little less than two weeks. US dollar growth may slow down

The British pound fell against the US dollar on Friday, while the European currency continued to trade in a narrow side channel.

The downward movement on the pound was resumed after it became known that the British Parliament voted against the Brexit agreement proposed by Theresa May - 344 votes against, 286 votes in favor. This means that the chance of a British exit from the EU without a deal has increased significantly. Now the UK will have to formulate an alternative proposal by April 12. Already on April 10 will appoint another EU summit, where European leaders will discuss further actions related to Brexit.

The more uncertainty will hang with Brexit, the more pressure will be exerted on the pound.

Weak data on the US economy, which came out on Friday afternoon, did not allow the US dollar to continue its upward trend against the European currency.

According to the report, US consumers increased their spending quite slighty in January 2019, indicating caution that households save at the beginning of the year.

According to the US Department of Commerce, personal expenses of Americans in January increased by only 0.1% compared with the previous month, while in December there was a decrease in expenses by 0.6%. Revenues rose a little more. The report indicates that personal incomes of American households in February increased by 0.2%, after falling by 0.1% in January of this year. Economists had forecast growth in spending in January by 0.3%, while revenue growth in February by 0.2%.

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The weak report on the slowdown in the PMI Purchasing Managers Index Chicago also did not appeal to buyers of the dollar.

According to the data, in March of this year, the index dropped to 58.7 points from 64.7 points in February. I recall that values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

The report on the growth of sales of new homes in the United States did not support the dollar, although it indicated a slight recovery in the market after a long period of weakness. According to the US Department of Commerce, sales of single-family homes on the primary housing market in February 2019 increased by 4.9% to 667,000 homes per year. Economists had expected sales of 620,000. Compared to the same period in the previous year, sales grew by 0.6%.

The speech of the representative of the Federal Reserve Robert Kaplan on Friday evening was left unattended by traders. Kaplan said he did not expect a rate hike in 2019, but his opinion may change, as the main thing is that the Fed should show patience and flexibility. Currently, Fed policy is moderately soft. The representative of the Fed also noted that if GDP growth is below potential, then inflation may continue to slow down, and this will necessarily affect the timing of further increases in interest rates.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 01, 2019

USD/JPY did sell off after the bad data from Retail sales m/m. USD/JPY did test of the 110.81. Anyway, we expect upward movement and potential shakeout of the sellers.

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According to the H4 time – frame, we found that short-term trend is bullish. The bad data from Retail Sales m/m, in our opinion only shacked the weak traders but we expect the trend to resume. The ADX is reading is above 30, which is sign that trend is strong and that you should watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks. Additionally, there is confirmed inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is another strong sign of the potential bullish movement. Resistance levels are seen at the price of 111.70 and 111.90. Support levels are seen at 110.80 and 110.54.

Trading recommendation: We are long USD/JPY from 110.95 and with targets at 111.70 and 111.90. Protective stop is placed at 110.50.

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GBP/USD. April 1. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The patience of the EU in the matter of Brexit runs out

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -73.5422

The GBP/USD currency pair began to adjust after the collapse last week. As for the prospects of the pound sterling, there is a new date for it X – April 12. On this day, the UK officially has to leave the EU in a "hard" scenario. But there are several "but". First, the UK together with the EU can postpone the release dates again. Then Britain will have to participate in the elections to the European Parliament, but these are trifles. Secondly, in theory, the British Parliament can vote for Theresa May's "deal" at least every day. It would not be more absurd than three rejections of the same agreement. Thus, three full months of 2019 have passed, and "things are still there". We still believe that in the current conditions, there is only one way at the pound sterling – down. More questions are raised by the fact why the pound is not lower than 1.2500? Perhaps market participants are still hoping that the parties (London and Brussels) will still be able to avoid a "tough divorce." However, the chances of this option are melting every day. There were also rumors that a new series of dismissals of ministers disagreeing with the policy of Theresa May could follow in the British Parliament. In addition, there is information that Theresa May is under pressure from the "tough" Brexit scenario.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3000

S2 - 1.2939

S3 - 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3123

R3 - 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD has started an upward correction. Since the trend is downward, traders are advised to wait for the color of 1-2 bars in blue and trade again for a fall with targets at 1.3000 and 1.2939.

Long positions will become relevant only after overcoming the moving average by traders. In this case, the tendency for the instrument to change again is upward, but from a fundamental point of view, there is little reason for this option.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. April 1. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The euro cannot decide which way to go next

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -56.6422

On Monday, April 1, the currency pair EUR/USD stopped falling. It stopped near its minimum values for a year and a half. Now, the pair is at the fork of two roads. One direction – up, which will be justified from a technical point of view, since the area of 1.1200 – 1.1270 has been tested for strength several times. The second direction is the breakthrough of this area and further down, up to price parity. Unfortunately, the fundamental component is not on the side of the euro. More precisely, there are some positive moments, but market participants do not react to them, or react, but very restrained. On the first trading day of the week in the eurozone, the publication of a preliminary consumer price index for March is scheduled, and in the States there will be reports on retail sales and business activity indices in the sectors of production and services of ISM and Markit. Both inflation in the EU and business activity indices in the US may disappoint. Thus, today traders will have something to pay attention to. From a technical point of view, the intraday has now begun a round of correction, which at the moment looks like a side one. Nevertheless, it can turn into ascending. In any case, while Heikin Ashi is directed up, it is not recommended to open new short positions.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1.1200

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1261

R2 - 1.1292

R3 - 1.1322

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has begun to adjust. Thus, it is now recommended to wait for the completion of this correction and the Heikin Ashi indicator turning down, then short positions with targets at 1.1200 and 1.1169 will become relevant.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered no earlier than fixing the pair above the moving average line with targets at 1.1292 and 1.1322.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Will the Reserve Bank scare the "Australian"?

Looking at the unexpected growth of the March business activity in the manufacturing sector of China above the critical level of 50, the Australian dollar came to its senses. The slowdown of the economy of the Middle Kingdom and the GDP of the Green continent in the second half of 2018 were the main drivers for the weakening of the Aussie. If Beijing puts the country on the path of V-shaped recovery with the help of incentives, the bulls at AUD / USD have good chances to develop an attack. At the same time, the meeting of the Reserve Bank, statistics on retail sales, business activity, the real estate market, as well as news about relations between the USA and China, allow the Australian dollar to claim the most interesting currency for the first week of April.

While US stock indexes are marked by the best quarter since September 2009 and the best start since 1998, the volatility of financial markets remains low. And since the market conditions for raw materials are favorable for the currencies of the countries of exporters, it is rather unexpected to see Aussie among the outsiders. The divergence in the dynamics of AUD / USD and iron ore prices, one of the key components of the sovereign exports of the Green continent, suggests that the "Australian" is an undervalued currency. In such circumstances, encouraged by the devaluation and the "bullish" commodity market, exports should go up. Alas, the weakness of external demand does not allow him to spread his wings.

Dynamics of AUD / USD and iron ore prices

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Canberra problems are not limited to a shrinking market. The Middle Kingdom makes a high demand for Australian real estate, and the slowdown of its economy contributes to falling prices. The population is starting to spend less and save more in order to purchase cheaper apartments, which translates into a slowdown in GDP and inflation. As a result, rumors of a decline in the basic interest rate of RBA are growing by leaps and bounds. It would be beneficial for the Central Bank to support them, since otherwise, an external background favorable for carry-traders could increase the demand for the Australian dollar.

In this regard, investor attentiveness to the April meeting of the Reserve Bank is quite appropriate. Firstly, in March, Philip Lowe, saying that the cash rate could be either increased or lowered, dropped Aussie. Secondly, at the end of the first month of spring, colleagues from RBNZ even knocked out their currency with the help of a phrase about easing monetary policy under the influence of increased international risks. Concerns about the repetition of the New Zealand scenario are holding back the attacks of the bulls at AUD / USD.

In my opinion, if Beijing and Washington, nevertheless, would able to sign an agreement on ending the trade war, and the economy of the Middle Kingdom begins to recover; the chances of a gradual strengthening of the Australian dollar will grow. Much will depend on the position of his American namesake. When both the White House and the Fed are interested in devaluation, it is difficult for the market to buy the USD index.

Technically, the "bulls" breakthrough on AUD / USD of the upper border of the downward long-term trading channel will increase the risks of implementing the first target of the "Wolfe Waves" pattern. It corresponds to the mark of 0.725.

AUD / USD daily chart

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Euro and pound are not waiting for the best week

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While the currencies of developing countries as well as the dollar that joined them are rising based on the news about the growth of manufacturing activity in China, the euro is stalling on the spot. And it seems that it will be difficult to be moved. The euro continues to move closely to a three-week low of 1.1210 dollars with rare variations of no more than 0.1 percent, up to 1.1232 dollars. The governor of the Dutch Central Bank, Klaas Knot, one of the most influential representatives of the monetary policy committee of the European Central Bank, said that it is clear that interest rates will remain at a level that was lower than before the crisis, even after normalization of the policy.

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Sterling also fell slightly, to 1.3032 dollars, remaining near the Friday low of 1.2977 dollars and close to the low of last month of 1.2945 dollars. The withdrawal of Britain from the European Union is still in question after the defeat of Prime Minister Theresa May in Parliament. The Prime Minister remains under serious pressure from rival factions that insist on Brexit without a deal. It is believed that traders and investors have reduced trading in the pound because it has become very difficult to predict its movement against the background of constant and sometimes mysterious political events. Most likely, Monday will be another interesting day in parliament if parliamentarians can form a majority around several petitions.

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The positive news from China will affect the currency market in the coming days

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An unexpected rise in manufacturing activity in China supported the yuan and the Australian dollar. This will motivate investors to take risks this week, including raising the dollar against the yen. In March, production in the PRC grew for the first time in four months, indicating that government incentives are beginning to influence the world's second largest economy. Positive data will push the Australian dollar, which has already risen in price by 0.4 percent, to 0.7126 dollars. Chinese yuan is also growing. The dollar, as a universal soldier, has found a reason for growth. At the same time, there is not much reason for optimism regarding China. Political steps will, at best, stop further slowdowns, but they are unlikely to accelerate the economy. That is why we may see some decline in the future.

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The yield curve between the 3-month US Treasury bills and 10-year-olds again became positive - a change that seemed to help boost market confidence. In general, a positive risk attitude contributed to the growth of the currencies of developing countries. The Mexican peso added 0.35 percent, to $ 19,364, while the South African rand rose by about 0.8 percent, to $ 14.395. It is true that the Turkish lira failed to play positively on this news and slipped by more than 1 percent, to 5.6158 per dollar after the ruling party AK President Tayyip Erdogan lost control over the capital Ankara for the first time in local elections. It has been admitted in the largest city of the country, Istanbul.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for April 01, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 0.7046 and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards thae first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 1)

By the end of the last trading week, the currency pair Euro / Dollar showed low volatility of 36 points. This led traders in some confusion. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that for seven trading days, the pair showed a steady decline. With 210 points, the pair found temporary support in the area of 1.1210, formed as a result a congestion. The long-awaited information background regarding the "divorce" process in Britain and Europe has once again ended in nothing. The British Parliament rejected the deal for the third time, even before the EU made it clear that it would no longer back down. More so, the England should make a decision before March 29. Looking at the current situation, there is no solution, the deputies continue to resume possible alternatives, because the UK also refuses to withdraw from the European Union without an agreement. In turn, statements from Europe have already gone. "We have shown a lot of patience towards our British friends, but even this patience is running out. I would like the UK to come to an agreement in a few hours, in a few days, on which way to go further, "said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. European Council President Donald Tusk said that in connection with the refusal of the House of Commons to withdraw from the agreement (Britain), I decided to convene the European Council on April 10. French President Emmanuel Macron, in turn, said that the United Kingdom should submit an alternative plan in the coming days. If this does not happen and it becomes more likely, we will find that the UK leaves the European Union without consent.

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Today, the show with clowns will continue to delight the speculators, as the UK Parliament will again sit down to vote on alternative options: current agreements, early elections, the beginning of the presentation at 2:30 pm, the end of 8:00 pm local time. In terms of the economic calendar, traders are waiting for data on retail sales in the United States, where they expect a slowdown from 2.3% to 2.1%, which could put pressure on the dollar.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote has formed a certain cluster of 1.1210 / 1.1250, where there is a fulcrum. It is likely to assume that the bumpiness within the set limits will remain, but at the time of the release of statistics for the States we can jump for a while, forming a correction of 1.1270-1.1280 as a result.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- We consider buying positions in the case of price fixing higher than 1.1250, with a view to 1.1270-1.1280.

- We consider selling positions in the case of price fixing lower than 1.1210, with a view to 1.1180.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector , we see that in the short term, there is an upward interest against the background of the current cluster. Intraday and mid-term prospects both maintain a downward interest in the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 1, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 29 points. It is likely to assume that at the time of publication of statistics from the states, volatility may increase.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1230 * 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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The decisive stage Brexit: time is running out, as well as options

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The topic of the UK exit from the European Union remains to be the focus of the market. Pound traders expect a new turbulent week, which will be held under the sign of Brexit.

British lawmakers once again, are trying to take control of the "divorce" process. They are seeking to find an alternative to the draft deal promoted by Prime Minister Theresa May, which has already been rejected three times by the House of Commons.

Today, parliamentarians must again vote on possible options for a "divorce" with Brussels, which include maintaining Albion's membership in the Customs Union and holding a second referendum.

It is possible that T. May will wait for the outcome of this vote before deciding on her next steps. If the deputies come out for a more "soft" scenario, the Prime Minister may find himself in a difficult situation, since it threatens to split the Conservative Party. Thus, some ministers call for the country's withdrawal from the alliance without a deal on April 12, while others intend to leave their posts if this becomes the official government line.

However, the head of the cabinet may also try to push through his draft divorce agreement through the House of Commons for the fourth time.

Thus, the balance can swing in any direction: either the parliament will win with a more "soft" option, or T. May. At the same time, the likelihood of the United Kingdom leaving the EU without an agreement should also not be written off.

According to experts, the "tough" Brexit is a step into an unknown space. In this case, the pound sterling can go to a free fall mode.

"The pound may fall in price to $ 1.25, if in the coming weeks, the worry seems to focus in the UK's position of leaving the EU without a deal increase. Apparently, much will depend on the position of the alliance regarding the long Brexit delay, "said MUFG analyst Lee Hardman.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 01, 2019

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Overview:

Pivot point: 1.1280.

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1280. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1280 to the bottom around 1.1225. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1280 followed by 1.1310, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1179. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1280 and 1.1179; for that we expect a range of 101 pips (1.1280 - 1.1179). If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1280, the market will decline further to 1.1179. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1137 with a view to test the second support. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1280 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence for April 1. The fall of the euro has stopped

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues the process of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 0.0% (1.1177), despite the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator. New emerging divergences on April 1 is not observed in any indicator. Quoting quotes from the Fibo level of 0.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and a slight increase in the direction of the retracement level of 23.6% (1.1269). Closing a pair below the Fibo level of 0.0% will increase the chances of continuing to fall.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 10, 2019, and March 7, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair consolidated below the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285). Thus, the drop in quotations can be continued in the direction of the next retracement level of 1.0941. The only thing that confuses is the area of the previous low of the pair. It will be very difficult to break through. Closing the rate of the pair above the Fibo level of 127.2% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the European currency and expect some growth in the direction of the retracement level 100.0% (1.1553).

The Fib grid is based on extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading recommendations

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1269 if the pair disconnects from the level of 0.0%. The stop-loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1177.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177 if the pair rebounds from the retracement level of 23.6%. The stop-loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1269.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergence for April 1. The pound began to recover due to divergence

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3098), a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a fall to the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2969). The end of the quotations of the pair on April 1 from the level of 61.8% will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the British pound and some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4%. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level 61.8% will work in favor of continuing to fall in the direction of the next retracement level 50.0% (1.2868).

The Fibo grid is built on the grounds of the extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the pair reversed in favor of the American currency after the end of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.3121) and the fall to the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.2961). The bullish divergence at the CCI indicator worked in favor of the pound sterling and the pair began to return to the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3061). Rebounding the pair from this level will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and the resumption of a fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0%. There are no emerging divergences on both charts today.

The Fibo grid is built on the grounds of the extremums from March 11, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3061 and the stop-loss order under the low divergence, as bullish divergence was formed (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be carried out with the target at 1.2961 and a stop-loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3061 (hourly chart).

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The US dollar rises against yen, State Street says

According to analysts at State Street Bank & Trust, the increase in the USD / JPY currency pair to 112.00 this week is expected due to increased risk appetite on the part of most investors. This was facilitated by the strengthening of the US currency and the non-lowering risk appetites of market players as recorded last week.

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At the end of last week, the USD/JPY pair showed an increase, rising from 109.70 to 110.90. Later, it reached the level of 110.85. According to experts, the movement of this pair will occur ranging from 109.70 to 112.15. Currently, the pair is almost in its center and the only question is whether it will move downward or upward.

Experts expect to strengthen the US dollar against the yen. Improving investor sentiment with regard to risky assets increases the likelihood of funds flowing abroad from Japanese funds, according to experts at State Street Bank & Trust.

As already noted, the USD/JPY pair may rise to 112.00 if the stock markets remain at the same levels this week. The rise will also contribute to positive data on the US labor market, stress in State Street. At the same time, the US Treasury bonds are still in high demand from foreign investors, which also helps the growth of the US currency.

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GBP/USD: technical review 01.04.2019

Current dynamic

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting up from the lower line of the Bollinger Bands (1.2976). The main target of the correction is the level of 1.3122 (Murray [3/8]) which corresponds to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. If the bulls manage to raise the rate above the level of 1.3134, the correction can continue to the area of 1.3183 (Murray [4/8]). The area of 1.3183 can prevent the GBP/USD rate from active rising, as the possibility of the reverse of the downward rebound is high there. Meanwhile, the breakout of 1.3183 level will let the price grow to the level of 1.3244 (Murray [5/8]). The downward trend will be restored after the price is set below the level of 1.3000 (Murray [1/8]). In this case, the next targets of sellers will be the level of 1.2939 (Murray [0/8]) which is the key support for the EUR/USD pair in the short term.

Technical indicators mostly reflect the maintenance of the downward potential, but the continuation of upward correction is possible in the short term.

Bollinger Bands are slightly leaned downwards. MACD volumes are decreasing in the negative zone. Stochastic is directed upwards signaling the development of an upward correction.

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Support and resistance:

Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2939, 1.2878, 1.2817.

Resistance levels: 1.3061, 1.3122, 1.3183, 1.3244.

Trading scenarios:

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3122 with the target at around 1.3183 and stop loss 1.3100.

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3000 with the target at around 1.2939 and stop loss 1.3120.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD pair for April 1. Brexit confusion is clearly visible and wave pattern

Wave counting analysis:

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On March 29, the GBP/USD pair made an impressive breakthrough, both up and down, but declined by just 15 bp at the end of the day. All news of the pair are associated only with Brexit. For the third time, the Parliament rejected Theresa May's agreement on withdrawal from the EU but did not offer anything in return. Thus, it is not clear how this whole mess will end. So far, everything is going to ensure that the UK will leave the EU without any agreements on April 12. Such an agreement exists with the European Union. But until April 12, the parties may once again negotiate and transfer Brexit to a later date. The wave counting still involves the construction of a downward wave 3 with targets located below 1.2950.

Purchase targets:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern assumes the construction of a downward wave 3. The news background still remains on the side of the dollar, which implies a further decline in the pair. However, the Brexit news comes in with frightening regularity and any one of them can trigger movements around the instrument. Thus, wave counting may require additions and corrections. With the breakthrough of the minimum of wave 1, the downward confidence in the campaign down will be intensified.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD pair for April 1. Euro currency is waiting for reportsfrom the EU and the US today

Wave counting analysis:

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Bidding for EUR/USD pair on Friday, March 29 ended with a loss of another 15 bp. However, the pair "stopped". Presumably, the wave b is completed, which turned out to be quite deep relative to wave a. If this is true, then the tool can still go up and start building a wave with targets above 1.1455. I have already said that whatever wave structure does not develop now, all waves have an extended appearance and approximately the same size. Thus, even going below the minimum of the supposed wave 5, it will not prevent the pair to turn around almost immediately and start building the rising wave again. The news background remains neutral for the pair.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Purchase targets:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair is supposedly close to completing wave b. Now, I recommend waiting for a new signal to complete the current downward wave and start buying a pair with targets near the 1.1455 mark, which corresponds to the maximum of wave a. The rising wave will be built in any case, and will most likely be commensurate with all the previous waves.

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Trading Plan 04/01/2019

The story of Brexit continues to put pressure on the market. Last week failed to make any decision.

In the new week, the debate in the British Parliament will continue. On the table are all possible options - from the preservation of Britain in the customs and trade union (or separately) - to a new referendum or withdrawal from the EU without an agreement. Attempts to find a solution that suits the majority will continue in the new week.

In addition, the new week will be released important news on the US economy - reports on employment for March - on Wednesday and Friday (nonpharm-s). On Tuesday, a report on orders for durable goods will be released.

The euro continues a long consolidation.

We are ready to take part in the trend movement after the euro leaves the range.

We buy euros from 1.1335.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1175.

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Markets cheered on positive statistics from China

Trump's adviser and the head of the National Economic Council of the United States, Lawrence Cadlow, demanded the Fed to immediately reduce the rate by 0.5%, since, he said, it should not have been raised above 2%. In support of its position, Kadlow calls such a reason as the inversion of the yield curve, that is, trends in the debt market. Cadlow also points a slowdown in the global economy, the approaching recession in the eurozone and China's weakness.

On Monday morning, published data from China and Japan turned out to be the exact opposite. The Japanese Tankan for the 1st quarter was in red in almost all parameters. The activity index for large enterprises decreased from 14.3p to 1.2p, stopping literally half a step from the recession level. The forecast declined from 15p to 8p. Both indicators turned out to be noticeably worse than forecasts. After some changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, which once again made its top priority a return to 2% inflation, a possible strengthening of the yen against the backdrop of panic might trigger speculation that the Bank of Japan will launch a new wave of monetary stimulus.

At the same time, China's PMI showed growth in March, when no one expected it. The production index from NBS increased from 49.2p to 50.5p. The analogous index from Caixin rose from 49.9p to 50.8p. The service sector growth rate increased instead of the expected fall.

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Reducing the threat of slowing China led to an immediate reaction in the markets. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite adds more than 2.5%, dragging all Asian indices. Oil rises in price, defensive assets fall in value, trading in Europe began with bond sales.

In the evening, it will become clear how American investors will react. On Friday, the yield on 10-year Treasures was still below 3 months, which historically always meant the approach of recession. As long as the markets are clearly in high spirits, the growth of oil and commodity currencies with a simultaneous weakening of the yen will still dominate for some time.

EURUSD

Business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany in March fell to 44.1p against 44.7pa month earlier. In the eurozone the drop went from 47.6p to 47.5p. Both indicators were worse than expected and worse than preliminary results. The ECB received an unpleasant confirmation of its fears, the operation TLTRO3, aimed at lending to the real sector of the economy, looks more and more justified. In the future, the increase in rates of 12 months is almost impossible. The euro is under pressure and is able to test the recent minimum of 1.1175 in the coming days.

GBPUSD

The final data on UK GDP coincided with forecasts. Growth in Q1 was 0.2%, year-on-year growth of 1.4%, and a significant slowdown was avoided due to growth in government and consumer spending.

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At the same time, there is still no positive dynamics in business investments. On an annualized basis, the decline was 2.5%, and the current account deficit amounted to 4.4% of GDP in the first quarter.

Uncertainty led to a fall in property prices in London to 10-year lows, and this is probably not the limit. Despite the fact that Theresa May promised to resign in June in exchange for support, the parliamentarians again rejected the draft agreement on withdrawal from the EU, thus increasing the likelihood of withdrawal without any document at all.

This event may occur as early as April 12, two days before the designated date, the EU will hold an emergency meeting, during which, probably, the two economies will finally become separated.

The pound has no reason to resume growth and will remain under pressure. Possible correctional growth with high probability will be stopped in the 1.3110 / 15 zone and will be used for aggressive sales. The nearest target is 1.2960 / 70 with an eye at 1.2770 and below in case of a deepening political crisis.

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Trading recommendations for the currency pair GBPUSD - placement of trading orders (April 1)

By the end of the last trading week, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 157 points. However, traders were expecting more. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quote showed a steady decline throughout the week, reaching a psychological level of 1.3000, where it slowed down as a result of movement and as a fact rolled back. Information and news background focused on the UK & EU "divorce" process, where the British Parliament rejected the agreement for the third time. What this means is that Britain will have to ask the European Union again to postpone or leave without a deal. In fact, Britain is already so bogged down in its debates that everyone has forgotten that there is no time anymore. Let me remind you that earlier in the EU, they said that they were waiting for a firm decision before March 29, but they got into trouble again. In turn, On March 31, Theresa May will be warned that her government will face a total collapse if she does not succeed in conducting a Brexit deal through parliament. This is due to the fact that the assistants to the Prime Minister cannot decide whether to accept a "soft" deal or hold general elections this week. From Europe, we have a reaction. "In light of the fact that the House of Commons rejected the agreement on withdrawal, I decided to hold a meeting of the European Council on April 10," Donald Tusk wrote on Twitter.

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Today, the show with clowns will continue, the British Parliament will sit down to vote on alternatives once again. Current agreements and early elections - beginning at 2:30 pm and will end at 8:00 pm local time. In terms of the economic calendar, traders are waiting for data on retail sales in the United States, where they expect a slowdown from 2.3% to 2.1%, which could put pressure on the dollar.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a pullback from the level of 1.3000, where the quotation managed to bounce down to the value of 1.3082. But after that, it slowed down again. It is likely to assume that the information background and the current parliamentary vote will continue to exert pressure on the pound. For this reason, I do not rule out a hang within the range of 1.3000 / 1.3090, where all hope is only for statistics from the United States, which can temporarily help in forming a corrective move by pound.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

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- We consider buying positions in the case of price fixing higher than 1.3100, with a view to 1.3140-1.3170.

- Traders consider positions for selling as a local decline to the level of 1.3000. Yet, deeper moves will be considered only after a clear price fixing lower than 1.3000, with support for the information background.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of the level of 1.3000 in the short term. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term prospects continue to maintain a downward interest against the general background of the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 1 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 74 points. Due to the information and news background, the volatility of the day will remain at a high level.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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The Forex market will continue to stagnate

The situation in the world markets is still quite complicated and confusing yet boring. The failed Brexit of Great Britain, Donald Trump's appeals to the Fed not to raise interest rates and his economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, made a statement saying that it would be nice for the regulator to start lowering them. All of these are happening in the wake of an extremely unclear picture of the negotiations between Washington and Beijing on trade, which continues to have an overwhelming effect on investor sentiment around the world.

In recent months, the foreign exchange market clearly shows this state of affairs. The lateral dynamics of the main currency pairs are supported by mutually exclusive trends. On the one hand, the US dollar is experiencing problems with growth due to the position of the Fed, which at the beginning of this year turned 180 degrees after the last decision at the December meeting to raise interest rates once again. But on the other hand, it is not marked by its decline, which is due, for example, for the European currency by the statement of the ECB about the lack of prospects for raising interest rates against the backdrop of dumping the eurozone into recession. A similar picture is observed in relation to the pound sterling, which remains hostage to Brexit.

A complex and ambiguous situation is emerging with respect to commodity currencies, which stagnate in pairs with the dollar amid falling prospects for higher interest rates, such as RBA, RBNZ, and so on. Their prospects are completely dependent not only on the strength of the dollar but also on the dynamics of prices for commodity and commodity assets. Although, everything here is also incomprehensible.

The Japanese yen is moving only under the influence of a factor of demand or lack thereof on protective assets. In recent months, there was no observed dependence on its movements, in tandem with the US dollar on incoming economic data.

All of the above confirms the assumption put forward by us about the lack of understanding by market players not only of the general prospects for the dynamics of the world economy but also on how the economies of China, the USA, and the eurozone will develop. Will the growth slowdown in the States and the PRC stop falling in the eurozone? So far, the markets are hoping for this, as well as the fact that global central banks will still have to pursue soft monetary policies in the near foreseeable future, which will generally support the demand for risky assets and at the same time inflating financial bubbles. However, this is another story as they say.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD is trading above 1.1215. The decline can possibly continue if the data published today by the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone does not show growth. On this wave, the price can rush to 1.1175 when it breaks the 1.1215 mark.

The AUD/USD receives support against the background of the publication of positive data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of China. If the pair holds above the level of 0.7120, it can continue the upward trend to 0.7145 and then to 0.7165.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 29. Another disastrous vote on Brexit puts pressure on the pound

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

On Friday, the British Parliament expectedly rejected the agreement proposed by Theresa May on Brexit, which created even more uncertainty. It is best to return to long positions on the pound after updating the support levels of 1.3027 and 1.2979 or to rebound from a new low of 1.2909. The main task of the bulls in the first half of the day will be to return and consolidate above 1.3120, which will return the upward momentum to the pound and lead to a test of levels 1.3162 and 1.3212, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

With the pound's growth to a resistance of 1.3120, you can count on big sellers to return to the market, and the formation of a false breakdown in this range will be the first signal to sell GBP/USD in order to update the lows around 1.3027 and 1.2979, where I recommend to lock in profits. In the absence of any support in the area of 1.2979, we can expect the pound to be sharply sold as well as test levels of 1.2909 and 1.2855. In case the pound increases above 1.3120 in the first half of the day, sales can be returned to a rebound from the resistance of 1.3162.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound decreases, the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2979 will provide support. Growth will be limited by the upper boundary of the indicator around 1.3085, the breakdown of which will lead to an upward correction.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 1. Strong reports on production activity in the euro area will help the single

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

A number of important reports on the production activity of the eurozone countries is expected to be released today, which can help strengthen the European currency. At the moment, it is best to look closely at long positions in the euro after updating support for 1.1208 or to buy for a rebound from a new low of 1.1176. The main task will be to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1240, from where we can expect growth in the area of 1.1269 and 1.1294, where I recommend to take profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

In case of weak data on the euro area, the pressure on the single currency may resume. An unsuccessful consolidation and return below the level of 1.1240 will lead to a new downward wave of EUR/USD in order to update the low around 1.1208 and 1.1176, where I recommend taking profits. With the EUR/USD growth scenario at the resistance level of 1.1240 in the first half of the day, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from a high of 1.1269 and 1.1294.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1240 may lead to an upward correction in the euro. The breakthrough of the lower border in the area of 1.1208 will lead to a new wave of the euro's decline.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Burning forecast 04/01/2019

Focus remains on Brexit. In the British Parliament, the debate begins again on all possible options for an agreement with the EU on relations after Brexit. Last week, 9 variants of the agreement were rejected. The debate will continue this week.

The EURUSD rate remains in the range. This week has a lot of important news about the US economy - today at 12.30 retail sales and at 14.00 - ISM Industrial.

We are waiting for the momentum and the beginning of a trend.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1175

We are ready to buy the euro from 1.1335

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for April 1, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, there is a high probability of an upward movement after the repulse from the line of support of the ascending channel. The first upper target of 1.3072 is the pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, there is a high probability of an upward movement after the repulse from the line of support of the ascending channel. The first upper target of 1.3072 is the pullback level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for April 1, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1177 is a lower fractal and a support line.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1177 is a lower fractal and a support line.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for April 1, 2019

On Friday the UK was supposed to leave the EU but instead it was the day when Theresa May's proposal on the exit deal was rejected for the third time. The voting having 9 consecutive "NO" s on Friday could spark off a crisis in the UK economy along the way.

According to the European Commission, a NO DEAL BREXIT is more probable, and the EU authorities are quite prepared to take on this pressure. The vote on Friday revealed that there are currently two ways the Brexit could proceed: the first scenraio is a departure in the middle of chaos without any deal or election of a different parliament. Lawmakers rejecting May's Brexit deal indicate that the UK economy is going to get a huge blow in the coming days. According to PM May, limits are being reached in the house and the implications of the House's decision are grave. After the vote, the European Commission scheduled a meeting on 10th April to discuss Britain's departure. Nevertheless, there is still a little chance of Brexit being delayed which might help the UK economy to tackle things better and prevent it from a drastic fall in the world economy.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 1, 2019

The slowdown in the eurozone's economy is still affecting EUR gains against USD. If EUR gains certain momentum, it may lose grounds further against USD. Despite a downbeat US GDP report released last week, USD managed to sustain pressure over EUR. So, at present market sentiment is still in favor of USD.

As the eurozone's economy is easing a pace of economic growth, the ECB has put off the plans to return to normal monetary policy. So, a rate hike has been delayed. The ECB interest rate has already been held at the record low of 0% for a long period. Downside risks require further actions from the governments of EU countries. Nowadays, the ECB has not been able to handle the pressure of a slowdown on its own. OECD chief economist Boone said that further involvement of public investment is needed but that might not be enough undre the current conditions.

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