Bitcoin to Test Nearest Clean Low: analysis for March 23, 2020.

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During the coronavirus crisis, bitcoin is trading under selling pressure. This week, the most popular cryptocurrency seems to be going to test the nearest Liquidity Pool at the Clean Low $5,605.90 as the primary target and $4,973.75 as the secondary target. As long as Bitcoin does not rebound and closes above $6,741.45, then definitely Bitcoin will continue with the previous downtrend to test the next Weekly Liquidity Pool at $3,940.36.

The overall bias of bitcoin is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 23/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The growing popularity of cryptocurrencies and the explosion of COVID-19 encouraged Italian Banco Sella to launch the Bitcoin trading service.

Trading takes place via the Hype platform, and the bank acts as an intermediary to limit potential security threats when exchanging cryptocurrencies. In a situation where the country is closed and everyone is stuck at home, the bank uses the growing interest in Bitcoin as a safe way to transfer money internationally in the midst of a crisis.

About 1.2 million Italians are already using Hype Banco Sella to make transactions and not only will they be able to buy and sell Bitcoins, but also pay for goods and services using cryptocurrencies.

"The cryptocurrency and Bitcoin market continues to attract interest, especially among the public, which is our customer base - by definition young and intelligent, and who are increasingly expecting that they will be able to access this world using tools they manage money on a daily basis "- says Antonio Valitutti, CEO of Hype.

Interest in cryptocurrencies and Blockchain has grown in recent months among Italian institutions. Blockchain technology was used for electronic voting in Naples, and two Italian high schools announced last week that they would be registering their Blockchain diplomas.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $6,863 during the weekend, but the bears had pushed the price lower towards the key zone again. Currently, the market is trading around the level of $5,827 which is just above the lower Triangle pattern line located at $5,620. Any violation of this level will likely lead to another wave down towards the nearest technical support seen at the level of $4,972. The key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $3,946 (13th March sell-off low). Please notice, that any breakout through the black trendline support will accelerate the wave down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,603

WR2 - $8,246

WR1 - $7,228

Weekly Pivot - $5,818

WS1 - $4,764

WS2 - $3,330

WS3 - $2,301

Trading Recommendations:

All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 23/03/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been locked in a wide range since the Friday close. The range has been located between the levels of 1.1412 - 1.1957 and the Pin Bar candlestick pattern had been made around the level of 1.1957 recently. This means the downtrend is not over yet as the bearish pressure is still visible. Please notice the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart and weak and negative momentum. The downtrend continues.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3144

WR2 - 1.2765

WR1 - 1.2140

Weekly Pivot - 1.1761

WS1 - 1.1090

WS2 - 1.0741

WS3 - 1.0112

Trading Recommendations:

The downtrend will likely be continued towards the parity level. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend until the level of 1.1983 is clearly violated. The long-term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.000 and the long-term target for bulls is a new high above the level of 1.1983.

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Events circulating coronavirus do not allow markets to switch to positive from incentive measures (EUR/USD and USD/CAD pairs

The positive mood in the global financial markets at the end of last week did not last long, since the widespread spread of coronavirus in Europe and America held on to, if not panic moods, which have become almost normal over the past month, then tension is at its highest degree.

On Friday, trading in the US ended on the stock market with a decline in stock indices. In addition, the attitude of investors towards defensive assets has noticeably expectedly changed. The Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and government bonds, primarily the United States, began to be in demand again against the backdrop of growing negative sentiment at trading in the United States.

At the same time, there were no significant changes in the currency market on Friday, only volatility increased. The local weakening of the dollar has stopped, but on Monday, its growth is not yet visible. It seems that markets are weighing new information about the spread of coronavirus in Europe and America. Unfortunately, the number of sick and dead is increasing. For example, Italy has already surpassed China in terms of the number of infected and dead, and so far, this has not been seen.

As previously stated, we believe that market dynamics will depend entirely on the prevalence and consequences of the pandemic. If the markets had begun to somewhat shake at the end of last week, drawing attention to unprecedented stimulus measures from the world Central Banks and reacted to this with a sharp pullback, then on Friday, a new significant decline reminded who is leading in the markets and who really rules them. This morning, we saw a strong decline in futures for major US and European stock indices before the opening of trading in Europe. This means that Europe will open with a fall and this negative could also spill over into the mood of investors in the States.

Estimating the wide scale of various incentive measures from the global Central Banks, we believe that most likely, a certain balance will be most likely established in the main currency pairs. This is due to the fact that the measures taken tend to weaken the exchange rates of national currencies, therefore, none of them, possibly except for the yen, which is considered as a currency of refuge during a panic, will be preferred. In this case, we do not consider the dollar, which can receive demand, as shown by very recent events, but only in conditions of critically high panic moods and nothing more. If these do not arise, we can expect a side dynamics in the main currency pairs with sharp "shoot" either up or down in the wake of high volatility.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading in the range 1.0645-1.0780. There is a possibility of its decline to 1.0550, if it does not rise above the level of 1.0780.

The USD/CAD pair is trading near the level of 1.4425. It may turn down again if oil prices that started to rise do not change their trend. In this case, the price will decline to the level of 1.4200 with the prospect of a decline to 1.4030.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 23/03/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been trading inside of a narrow range located between the levels of 1.0635 - 1.0778 during the weekend and currently the bulls are trying to test the upper levels of the range. Any violation of the level of 1.0778 will open the road towards the next technical resistance located at the level of 1.0831. The key technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.1000. Please notice the extremely oversold market conditions on the H4 time frame chart and weak and negative momentum. The downtrend continues.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1581

WR2 - 1.1403

WR1 - 1.0979

Weekly Pivot - 1.0796

WS1 - 1.0386

WS2 - 1.0200

WS3 - 0.9765

Trading Recommendations:

The downtrend is still a valid trend as long as the level of 1.1540 is clearly violated. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The long-term target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0339 and the long-term target for bulls is a new high above the level of 1.2555.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for March 23 - 2020

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EUR/GBP was correcting upwards to our target at 0.9034 (the low was seen at 0.8995). This could be enough to complete wave iv and set the stage for more upside pressure in wave v towards 0.9742. However, a more prolonged sideways consolidation is likely to occur before renewed upside pressure towards the long-term target.

The coronavirus will continue to cause volatile swings in the financial markets. We should not be surprised to see larger drops followed by larger and quicker than normal correction until the virus is under control.

R3: 0.9500

R2: 0.9337

R1: 0.9243

Pivot: 0.9157

S1: 0.9121

S2: 0.9067

S3: 0.8995

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 0.9050 and book a nice profit of 145 pips and we will look for a possible buying opportunity at 0.9010.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for March 23 - 2020

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The GBP/JPY pair is correcting upwards to 38.2% and the corrective target at 132.06. We expect more sideways price-movement and maybe rise to the 50% corrective target at 134.52 before the final dip to 123.04.

The coronavirus will continue to cause volatile swings in the financial markets. We should not be surprised to see larger declines followed by larger and quicker than normal correction until the virus is under control.

R3: 132.04

R2: 130.45

R1: 129.30

Pivot: 128.46

S1: 127.89

S2: 126.42

S3: 125.01

Trading recommendation:

We will look for a possible GBP sell opportunity at 134.45

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Control zones for NZDUSD on 03/23/2020

On the third day, the accumulation zone is formed on the pair. This makes it possible to work within the range. The probability of updating the monthly minimum is still above 75%, so sales from resistance levels should be considered first. Thursday's high retest may be a great place to start forming a downward pattern.

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The current position of the price can give an impetus to further growth. If you are considering purchases, then you need to partially fix them after testing the above extremes.

An alternative model will be developed if the closing of today's trading occurs below the weekly control zone of 0.5592-0.5577. This will open the way for the fall to continue without forming a deep correction. It is important to understand that the probability of continuing the momentum is always three times higher than its breaking. This allows you to hold sales and display them in the average market.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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The chronicles of the oil price war

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The demand for oil is bleak. According to the IHS Markit, there's currently an oversupply of oil in the markets, and it's the largest one ever recorded.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he will not give in to Saudi Arabia's "blackmail" despite the fact that Russia would prefer oil's prices to be higher. At the same time, in the US, Donald Trump's close associates are being forced to consider imposing import tariffs or other sanctions on Saudi and Russian oil.

On Thursday, Trump said that he could intervene in the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which has shaken the US oil drillers. He will not put trade barriers on their oil, but use his deal-making skills to bring them together to agree on a unified response that would include America and the rest of the world. Yes, oil companies will still be uncomfortable, but the alternative is the death of the shale sector, which, if pushed to the extreme, may even cause some kind of war in the Middle East to stop the supplies.

Although it will not be easy to make such a deal, there are agencies that show willingness to help make it happen, just like the Texas Railroad Commission, who indicated its willingness to participate in solving this problem.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, March 21, the first Deputy Prime Minister, Andrey Belousov, told TASS that Russia is not going to provoke a drop in oil prices, nor going to stop cooperating with OPEC. According to Belousov, Russia even offered existing restrictions for at least one quarter and even until the end of 2020. TASS said that, unfortunately, the Arab partners took a different position.

On March 23, Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak called a meeting with oil companies to discuss the state of the oil markets. There, Igor Sechin said that if shale oil, produced in large quantities by the United States, is forced out of the market, then, by the end of the year, world oil prices may return to $ 60 per barrel. Belousov, on the other hand, assumes that the price will be balanced in the range of 35-40 dollars per barrel.

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Control zones for AUD/USD on 03/23/2020

The increase in margin requirements on the exchange occurs for the third consecutive week. This indicates the expectation of increased volatility on the exchange. The growth that occurred at the end of last week allows us to consider the upward movement as an opportunity to find more favorable prices for selling the instrument in the medium term.

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The emerging accumulation zone allows you to search for both purchases and sales from significant resistance and support zones. This gives you freedom of action and allows you to earn within the range.

An alternative model for continuing the decline will come to the fore if today's closing occurs below the weekly CZ of 0.5626-0.5608. In this case, any growth can be used to sell the instrument. Due to increased volatility, the target levels were pushed back by 200 points.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for GBP/USD on 03/23/20

On Friday, the pair tested the weekly control zone 1.1884-1.1841. This made it possible to earn a favorable price for sale. Now, sales can already be converted to breakeven. In case of a retest, a new entry will be required if a sell pattern is formed. At the end of last week, a local accumulation zone was formed, which opens up the possibility for the correction of an upper period.

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Developing within the accumulation zone implies sales from the upper boundary with the continuation of the medium-term bearish momentum.

An alternative model will be developed if today's trading closes above the weekly control zone. This will open the direction for further growth and the formation of a deeper correction to the current medium-term decline. So far, developing in the growth's direction of the British pound should be executed with a partial closing of purchases at each of the important resistance levels.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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EUR/USD. US in the top three with most number of cases of COVID-19

The euro-dollar pair started the trading week with another correction: it returned to the seventh figure during the Asian session, trying to gain a foothold in this price area. The previous attempt, which was made on Friday, was not successful. After taking off at 1.0831, the pair attracted sellers and lost almost 150 points in just a few hours. But on the first trading day, EUR/USD bulls again reminded themselves - partly due to positive news from China and negative news flow from the US. In addition, the dollar swap lines opened by the Federal Reserve with the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England and nine other central banks slightly reduced the excitement around the US currency, although the greenback is still the main defensive asset for currency market traders.

Now many experts have asked the question: will the war for the dollar continue, or was the US regulator able to meet the existing demand through swap lines? The example of EUR/USD shows that the bears of the pair feel a certain discomfort, being below the seventh price level. Last week, they tested the sixth figure twice, but could not stay in this price area.

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Meanwhile, the number of detected infections in the US is growing "by leaps and bounds" - by several thousand per day. In recent days, this figure has sharply jumped, and not only due to the spread of the epidemic, but also due to an increase in the number of tests conducted (about 200 thousand residents of the US were tested for coronavirus). The country was in the top three of the sad rating, coming in third place in the world in the number of cases - almost 40 thousand (although only about 26 thousand were known to be infected on Saturday). At the same time, the US overtook Spain, leaving only China and Italy ahead. The majority of infections occur in New York state, Washington state, New Jersey, California, Illinois, and Florida. There are fewer than a thousand cases in other states. Almost half of the 411 COVID-related deaths were reported in New York and Washington States.

The situation is particularly difficult in New York, which accounts for about five percent of all infections in the world. Supplies of necessary medicines there are coming to an end: according to the mayor of the city, the shortage will begin to be felt in ten days. In response, Donald Trump approved a declaration of emergency in new York, which will allow the state to allocate billions of dollars in Federal aid. But other states in the country have faced similar problems, or will soon face them – the governors are asking the Federal government to provide the necessary supplies.

It is worth noting that the dollar received some support from Trump at the end of the previous trading week. He stated that he still does not see the need to declare a nationwide quarantine. In addition, there was information on the market that the United States will spend about four trillion dollars to save the economy and pay three thousand dollars to each American family (this information was later confirmed by Steven Mnuchin).

But the rapidly deteriorating epidemiological situation in the US is putting background pressure on the US currency. The dollar index, which is still at a high level (103 points), shows negative dynamics at the start of the new trading week, reflecting the cautious attitude of investors to the greenback. Additional pressure on the currency was also exerted by unofficial data on the labor market, according to which about three million people applied for unemployment benefits last week – this figure is almost four times higher than the record high that was set during the recession in the early 80's of the last century.

Thus, the dollar is currently in limbo. On the one hand, it still retains the status of the most reliable defensive tool. On the other hand, traders are concerned about the events that occur in the United States. If the rate of spread of COVID-19 will increase (and this scenario is very, very likely, given the latest trends), the United States will go to a nationwide quarantine following the example of California. This fact will affect the production sector in particular, and the economy as a whole, despite government stimulus programs.

For example, Tesla has already announced that today it is halting production not only in California, but also at the Buffalo plant, which is located in New York state. In addition to Tesla, production on the American continent is also suspended by General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler. A similar decision was made by the German automobile concern BMW - they announced the cessation of production at their plant in South Carolina, where more than 11 thousand people worked.

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In other words, the buzz around the dollar may decline this week. In addition, the US economy does not need an overly expensive currency, since revaluation is ricocheting on financial conditions. After the dollar index exceeded 103 points, the market began to talk about the high probability of the Fed participating in currency interventions. In addition, the option of coordinated actions in this context by the G7 countries (which can organize, for example, a big dollar sell-off) is not ruled out. According to a number of currency strategists, the greenback will cross the red line if the dollar index consolidates in the 104th figure. However, such rumors may become an occasion for profit taking from dollar bulls. This fact will help EUR/USD buyers develop large-scale correction, and at least return to the eighth figure. Otherwise, the pair will again fall into the sixth figure - if, contrary to all, the excitement around the greenback does not subside.

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Technical analysis of the GBP/USD currency pair for the week of March 23-28

The pair, in accordance with fundamental analysis, continued to move down last week, having already passed 10 figures down. Moving down, the price tested the support line 1.1411 (black bold line). Most likely, the price may start a pullback upward movement this week.

Trend analysis:

This week, the price, having broke through the support line of 1.1411 (black bold line), will move up with the first upper target 1.1831 - a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line), and if this line is reached, it will continue to further develop with a target of 1.2093 - pullback level 38.2% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- monthly chart - up.

The conclusion of a comprehensive analysis is an upward movement.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week will most likely have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candlestick (Monday - up) and the presence of the second upper shadow (Friday - down).

The first upper target of 1.1831 is a pullback level of 23.6% (blue dashed line) and if this line is reached, it will continue to further develop with a target of 1.2093, which is a pullback level of 38.2% (blue dashed line).

The unlikely lower scenario: from the level - 1.1627 (closing the last weekly candle) work down with the first target 1.1404 - support lines (black bold line)

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Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 23, 2020

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The global markets opened negatively on Monday, as the spread of the coronavirus pandemic is not reducing its pace, and forecasts for the EU and US economy are strongly negative. The currencies of developing countries fell against the dollar (won and rupee declined by 3%), while the indices of China, as well as the futures on the S&P 500, declined by 3% and 4% respectively.

Economic forecasts: according to the German Finance Ministry, "Recession in Germany is inevitable". The head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, said that the "German GDP will fall by at least 5%".

US forecasts: the economic downturn of the US in the 2nd quarter will be at least 10% per annum, and unemployment may reach 5 million. The US Congress is considering a package of assistance to households and the economy in the amount of $ 1 trillion, while the assistance for families will be up to $ 3,000.

European authorities have promised its citizens that it will compensate up to 70-80% of their salary during the quarantine.

France has adopted a new law regarding its state of emergency. EU authorities cancelled the rule of limiting the budget deficit during crisis.

Despite everything, experts still believe that the global economy will recover fairly quickly from the crisis, because the basic economic foundations have not been affected.

Update on the pandemic:

In Europe: Except Italy, it seems that there is a slowdown in the spread of the virus.

Italy - 59,000 cases

Spain - 29,000 cases

Germany - 24,900 cases

France - 16,000 cases

Britain - 5,700 cases (sharp growth)

Unfortunately, the United States is in second place with 35,400 coronavirus cases. Emergency regimes have now been introduced in New York, Washington and California.

EUR/USD is in a downward trend.

Sell the euro from a strong rebound from 1.0940 or higher.

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CAD/JPY moving in consolidation area. March 23, 2020.

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The CAD/JPY pair has entered the consolidation phase. However, it is still under the bears' control due to the coronavirus outbreak and its influence on the oil market. The CAD/JPY pair is likely to reach the nearest liquidity pool at 73.80. As long as this pair does not retrace and closes above the 78.37 level, then it may break the 73.80 level .

Overall the bias from CAD/JPY is Bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair for the week of March 23-28

Trend analysis:

This week, the price, having broken away from the support line 1.0673 (red bold line), will move up with the target at 1.0763 - a pullback level of 14.6% (red dashed line). Upon reaching which, it is possible to continue working upwards with the target of 1.0839 - a pullback level of 23.6% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- monthly chart - up.

The conclusion of a comprehensive analysis is an upward movement.

The overall result of calculating the candle of the EUR / USD currency pair according to the weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candlestick (Monday - up) and the presence of the second upper shadow (Friday - down).

The unlikely lower scenario: there will be a movement down with the lower target of 1.0334 - the target level of 161.8% (blue dashed line) from the level of 1.0693 (closing of the previous weekly candle).

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EUR/USD and GBP/USD. March 23. Black Tuesday for business activity indices. How bad will the data be?

4-hour timeframe

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The first trading day of the week for the currency pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD will be boring in macroeconomic terms. At least this is what the calendar of economic events says. However, in times of an epidemic, when much of the forex currency market depends on the state of the commodity market and the US stock market, you can and should expect anything. There might be a new speech by the top officials of the United States or the EU. These could be new claims about the spread of the coronavirus or progress in the development and testing of a vaccine. Anything can throw traders into an even greater state of panic or, conversely, calm them down. If there are no high-profile events on Monday, March 23, in the world, then this day can be used as a catalyst for what is happening in the market. If European currencies do not slump, then we can really count on the fact that the bears are satisfied and have calmed down, and now the euro and the pound will not fall, conquering records of volatility. If the fall in the euro and pound quotes continues, then most likely, all the macroeconomic statistics of this week will be ignored. We are still counting on the first option. If it comes true, we will have a very interesting day on Tuesday, when traders can finally work out the macroeconomic reports from the UK, EU, Germany and the US. We believe that these reports will play the most significant role for traders this week.

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The first indexes of business activity in the German manufacturing and services sectors will be published. The latest index value for the manufacturing sector was 48 and showed signs of recovery. According to experts, in March, the value of business activity will fluctuate between 38.5 and 40.0 points.

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Everything will be the same for the service sector. From a value of 52.5, which means the growth of the industry, the business activity index should fall to 37.8-42.0, which will mean a sharp decline. Although the forecasts are extremely low, we believe that the real numbers could be even worse. It won't make much difference, though. With almost 100% probability, business activity in Germany will go below the waterline..

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Things will not be any better in the European Union as a whole. The index of business activity for the industrial sector in February was 49.2 and has recovered after falling to 46.0. However, economists expect a new fall , this time even lower, in the area of 39.0 – 39.6.

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The same is expected for the business activity index for the services sector, which may decrease from the current 52.6 to 37.5-38.1.

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In the UK, which is still formally part of the European Union, business activity in the industry may not fall as much, only to 45.0.

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Business activity in the service sector will decrease to 44.0 – 45.0 from February's 53.2. Thus, all six European business activity indices will almost completely move to the area below the 50.0 mark, which will mean a serious decline in the designated areas of the designated countries. In principle, we do not see anything surprising in this, given the quarantines associated with the epidemic. In the coming weeks, we will regularly receive data for the month of March, which at best will disappoint investors and traders, and at worst will shock them, causing a new panic in the currency market. We believe that the main question is how strong will the cuts in the macroeconomic indicators of the EU countries and the United States be?

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Business activity will also be published in the US. The production sector is expected to decrease from 50.7 to 42.0-43.0.

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The service sector from 49.4 to 40.0-42.0. However, we remind you that the United States also publishes business activity indices according to the ISM version, which are considered more important and significant. However, in our case, this does not play any role, since, most likely, they will also go below the level of 50.0.

Thus, all the macroeconomic statistics for March are likely to be completely failed. The only question is, which will fail the most, where will the stronger decline be recorded?

4-hour timeframe

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The pound sterling is ready to resume the downward movement, as it rebounded from the critical Kijun-sen line. On Monday, we will need to understand whether traders are ready to refine macroeconomic statistics or whether chaotic and uncontrolled movement will continue.

Recommendations for short positions:

A strong downward movement remains in perspective in the EUR/USD currency pair. According to the Ichimoku indicator, it is recommended to resume pulling down trade with the goal of the first support level of 1.1229, until signs of a new round of correctional movement appear.

Recommendations for long positions:

Euro currency purchases with the goal of the Senkou Span B line can be considered no earlier than when the pair consolidates above the Kijun-sen line. However, in any case, it is recommended to be as careful as possible with the opening of any positions. Panic in all markets is still present.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dashed lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. Preview of the week. The British government provides assistance to businesses and employees.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -68.1088

After a minimal correction, the British pound, as well as the euro, shows signs of resuming a strong downward trend, which is confirmed fundamentally, based on the overall picture of the situation in the UK and the US. And it is not justified, based on the picture of the situation in the world covered by the epidemic. Let's explain: if you remove the epidemic and all its consequences for the economies of the United States and the Foggy Albion from the equation, then the pound is getting cheaper absolutely logically, and we have been talking about this constantly for the past few months. All the reasons have been listed repeatedly. However, if you try to analyze the fall of the pound by 1,500 points over the past 10 days, it becomes obvious that there were no particularly good reasons for this. The epidemic is raging both in the United States and in Britain. The number of cases is much higher in the United States. Both central banks simultaneously lowered rates to almost zero, but the Fed immediately lowered the rate by 1.5%, while the Bank of England - 0.65%. Both central banks announced the expansion of quantitative stimulus programs by absolutely gigantic amounts, as well as the introduction of various financial programs that stimulate the economy. Stock indices in the United States have collapsed, but it is unlikely that shares of British companies have risen in price over the same time. Thus, the only reason for the growth of the dollar is the confidence of most market participants that the US currency is the most secure currency at this time. And that's all. We also have to figure out what to expect from the currency pair this week.

As we have already mentioned in the article on EUR/USD, there will be quite a lot of important events in both the UK and the US this week. The only question is, will traders pay any attention to these events? On Tuesday, the UK will publish indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for March (preliminary value). They will be discussed in a separate article.

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So we go straight to Wednesday and immediately see the red-highlighted UK inflation report for February in the calendar of events. The basic consumer price index, which does not take into account changes in food and energy prices. This indicator is expected to fall to 1.3%-1.5% y/y.

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The main indicator of inflation is likely to slow down from the current 1.8% to 1.5%-1.6% in annual terms. And these figures refer to February. I don't want to think about what will happen in March. Anyway, in Britain, inflation is slowing again, which is not good for the British economy, which has been experiencing serious problems in recent years.

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On Thursday, March 19, in addition to important American statistics, the indicator of retail sales in the Foggy Albion for February will be published. In annual terms, experts predict an increase of 0.8%-0.9%, which is almost the same as the previous month. In monthly terms, 0.3%-0.4% is expected. However, a more important event is planned for the afternoon. There will be another meeting of the Bank of England, which has recently cut the key rate twice and brought it to the minimum value of 0.1%. All nine members of the BA monetary committee are expected to vote for the key rate to remain unchanged. The quantitative easing program will also remain at the same level of 645 billion pounds. However, given the current state of things, it is possible that there will be some surprises. And of course, the minutes of the Bank of England meeting will be published, which may contain a lot of important information regarding the views of the monetary committee on the current state of monetary policy and plans for further actions of the regulator.

On the last trading day of the week, important macroeconomic information is not expected from Britain. As with the EUR/USD pair, we believe that the most important information is the one that will concern the reports for March. Even if these are not final values. And of course, the meeting of the British regulator. All other reports are likely to be ignored by traders.

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Well, as for the "coronavirus" epidemic, in the UK, despite all the criticism of Boris Johnson and the belated adoption of measures for strict quarantine, things are not as bad as they could be. As of March 22, 5,000 people were infected and the growth rate is quite low. The British government has decided to compensate all workers who lost the opportunity to earn due to the epidemic, up to 80% of their wages. This was stated by Rishi Sunak, Minister of Finance. These measures, according to the British government, will help companies not to lay off employees, even if they can't work because of the pandemic. Mr. Sunak also appealed to businessmen and urged them not to dismiss employees because of the current situation. "I understand that the situation is very difficult. We in the government are doing everything to support you, and I ask you to do everything to support your employees," Sunak said. In addition, British companies will be able to avoid paying value-added tax during the entire period of the quarantine measures and take an interest-free loan for a period of one year.

From a technical point of view, the Heiken indicator has turned down, so the downward movement is also highly likely to resume. However, as with the euro, everything will depend on the state of market participants. If the panic persists, then the strong fall in the pound may continue. At the same time, the British currency cannot constantly fall in price, despite the epidemic. Therefore, at any moment, there may be an upward turn with no less strong growth than in the last two weeks. You need to be ready for any scenario.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair over the past 5 days is already 404 points and continues to increase. Over the past three trading days, the pound has passed 1,500 points for three days. On Monday, March 23, we expect the pair to move within the volatility channel of 1.1241-1.2049. This pair is likely to return to the lower border, but there are also small hopes for a correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1475

S2 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1719

R2 - 1.1963

R3 - 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a long-awaited correction, which could have already ended. Thus, sales of the pound with the targets of 1.1475 and 1.1230 are still relevant, but it is recommended to open new sell positions after the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down (a second blue bar is required). It is recommended to buy the British currency with the target of 1.2451, but not before fixing the price above the moving average line, which is not expected in the near future (the price is too far from the moving average). We remind you that in the current conditions, opening any positions is associated with increased risks.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. Preview of the week. The first reports will show a serious slowdown in the economy in the United

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -115.2364

For the EUR/USD pair, the new trading week will be extremely interesting in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Unfortunately, there is still panic in the markets, so there may not be a proper reaction to all the macroeconomic reports. There may be no reaction at all. However, we must note that the first reports for March will begin to arrive this week. For a month, when the "coronavirus" epidemic began in full scale in the European Union and the United States. Thus, this week can show how much the state of the economy has deteriorated in both the United States and the eurozone. Several reports for March have already been published. For example, the ZEW Institute's indices of economic activity and investor sentiment for Germany and the EU. All three indices fell, which is not surprising. What can be the mood of investors if there is an epidemic raging in the European Union, and quarantines have been introduced in all countries? A report on applications for unemployment benefits in the US was also published last week, according to which the number of applications increased in the week of March 13. Their total number was immediately 281,000, while the normal value of the indicator was 210,000-220,000. Thus, we can already imagine how bad the March figures will be...

All this week's macroeconomic publications can be divided into two categories. The publication of economic indicators for February and the publication in March. The first category is almost 100% - however, it will not cause any reaction among traders. Simply because the situation in all markets has changed so much due to the global epidemic that the February figures no longer matter. It is impossible to track the current trend or make a conclusion about the current state of a particular sector of the economy. We will consider them in any case, but they will be purely formal.

We'll start right away on Tuesday, as no publications are scheduled for Monday. On March 24, Germany, France, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States will publish data on business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for March (preliminary value). From our point of view, these data will be the most important and significant for traders. These data are the data of the "new time". These indices require careful consideration, so a separate article will be devoted to them.

On Wednesday, March 25, Germany will publish an insignificant index of economic expectations, assessments of the current situation and business optimism from the IFO for Germany for March. It is easy to guess that these indicators are likely to fall down.

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In the United States, the publication of orders for durable goods for February is scheduled today, as well as derivatives of the main indicator. In normal times, this is a very significant indicator, since this category of goods is expensive in itself, and consequently has a high impact on the economy and GDP. However, these reports are likely to be ignored at this time. However, the main indicator is forecast to decline by 0.7% m/m.

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The figure excluding defense orders is likely to lose 2.7% compared to January.

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And the indicator excluding transport is likely to decrease by 0.3% m/m. As we can see, all indicators are projected to reduce volumes.

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On Thursday, all the most important data will be published in the States. First, this is the final value of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2019. Here, no surprises are expected and according to experts' forecasts, the value will be 2.1% y/y. The same as in the third quarter.

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The main surprise for traders may be the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the week of March 20. That is, when the epidemic was already in full swing. According to preliminary forecasts, we should expect from 750 to 775 new applications for benefits, which means a sharp increase in job losses among the American population. The reasons are clear and obvious to all of us. However, for the American economy, which aims to achieve a strong labor market and low unemployment, such data may be another shock. However, it is unknown how this almost 100% probability of failure data will affect the exchange rate of the US currency. In the last 2 weeks, there was plenty of news that could cause a sale of the dollar, but it continues to grow strongly. However, this report could potentially cause the dollar to weaken.

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On Friday, March 27, the United States will publish data on changes in the level of income of Americans for February with a forecast of +0.3% - +0.4%...

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...and the level of expenditures with a forecast of +0.2% - +0.3% m/m. However, these data are of no interest now.

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The latest report this week will be the consumer confidence index from the Michigan Institute, which experts predict will fall from 101 to 90 in March. And this value may be the minimum for the last few years.

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The last thing I would like to note in this article is that the total number of people infected with "coronavirus" in the world over the weekend increased to 319,000. In the United States - 27,000 cases, in the EU - more than 140,000. As we can see, it is not possible to stop the growth rate of the epidemic, despite all the quarantine measures, so there is no reason for the markets to calm down. We still believe that the panic in all world markets may persist, so the movements may still be highly volatile and sharp.

From a technical point of view, the downward movement of the EUR/USD pair continues, as the Heiken Ashi indicator turned down again after a minimal correction up. This week, much will depend on the state of the US stock markets and the commodity market, but for now, the dollar maintained its leading position. Almost the main factor in favor of strengthening the euro is the impossibility of the constant growth of one of the currencies. In our case, the US dollar...

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains at record values and continues to grow day by day. At the moment, the average value for the last 5 days is 230 points. The growth rate is not as high as it used to be. Markets continue to be in an agitated state. There is no logic in the movement now, the markets just collapse and collapse every day. Thus, on Monday, we again expect a decrease in volatility and movement within the channel, limited to the levels of 1.0464 and 1.0924.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0620

S2 - 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0742

R2 - 1.0864

R3 - 1.0986

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues its strong downward movement. Thus, traders are still recommended to sell the euro with the targets of the Murray levels of 1.0620 and 1.0498 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up, which will indicate a round of upward correction. It is recommended to buy the EUR/USD pair not before fixing the price above the moving average line with the first target of the Murray level of "3/8"-1.1108. When opening any positions, we recommend increased caution, since the market is now in a frank panic.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 23. Risk of a serious spread of COVID-19 in the UK and a sharp drop in GDP

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Several negative forecasts for a likely increase in the number of people infected with coronavirus in the UK and a sharp contraction of the economy this year returned pressure on the British pound on Friday, which seemed to have found the bottom and started its recovery. Now the bulls need to cling to the resistance of 1.1653, which will lead to a repeated upward correction to the area of 1.1798, where I recommend taking profits, as it will not be so easy to quickly break above this range. In case of an unsuccessful attachment to the resistance of 1.1653, long positions are best postponed until the formation of a false breakout near the support at 1.1470, or even better, postpone the purchase to test new yearly lows in the areas of 1.1470 and 1.1350. However, you can only count on a rebound of no more than 50-60 points of intraday correction from these levels.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers, although not immediately, showed themselves on Friday, arranging a large sale from the level of 1.1798, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart and which I paid attention to. Now the task of sellers is to hold the resistance of 1.1653, and the formation of a false breakout on it, in a place with weak fundamental data for the UK, will lead to another return of GBP/USD to the support area of 1.1470. However, only a break in this area will again resume a strong bearish trend for the pound in order to update the round figures 1.1400 and 1.1300, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of growth above 1.1653 in the first half of the day, the bears will count on sales from the resistance of 1.1798. If there is no volume after testing this area, it is best to postpone short positions until the high of 1.1926 is updated.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the formation of the side channel, so it is best to open short positions on the pound after a correction from large resistances.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.1470. Growth will be limited by the upper boundary of the indicator in 1.1910.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com