The dollar keeps afloat due to the fact that it remains the best of the worst, TD bank says

Experts of Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) believe that the US currency may still strengthen in the short term. However on the long-term, the risks noticeably weakening, including in relation to the euro.

"Given the unsustainable growth of global GDP, and the fact that monetary authorities around the world are rejecting hawkish views, it's not surprising that investors began laying in quotes the likelihood of lower interest rates from leading central banks," representatives of the financial institution said.

"For us, it looks like a race to the bottom," they added.

r33jdozxi5cv_hcL6IfREfQByhMoi5oOJucuDKqw

Mitigation of the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States seems to be due to fears that the country's economy will no longer be able to achieve such results as before.

"With the support of short-term factors, greenback can still be strengthened. In particular, this will be observed if trade tensions move to Europe. However, long-term prospects speak in favor of the weakening of the American currency. And this should already be clearly manifested by the end of this year, "experts say.

The bank expects the dollar index to be 92.5 points at the end of 2019 and 88.2 at the end of next year .

"The "American" keeps afloat largely due to the fact that it remains the best of the worst among the G10 currencies," TD currency strategists noted.

It is assumed that the difference in interest rates in the US and the Eurozone will play in favor of a strong dollar.

Meanwhile, market participants are rapidly lining up in expectations of a cut in interest rates from the Fed this year. It is possible that the first such step may be followed in September. It can push upward the EUR/USD pair.

According to the TD forecast, the euro against the dollar will reach $1.19 by the end of 2019, and $ 1.25 by the end of 2020.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the American session on March 28. Pound declines amid uncertainty about Brexit

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Just yesterday it became known that the situation with Brexit became even more complicated after the failed vote in the British Parliament for various scenarios on Brexit. Buyers have missed several levels of support and the entire emphasis on long positions is currently shifted to the lows of 1.3083 and 1.3045, from where you can buy a pound when a false breakdown forms. The main task of the bulls in the afternoon will be the return of GBP/USD pair to the intermediate resistance of 1.3122, which will lead to an upward correction in the region of the maximum of 1.3162.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Bears are actively selling the pound and while the trade moves below the resistance of 1.3122, we can expect a renewal of the minimum in the area of 1.3083 and 1.3045, where I recommend fixing the profit. In clarifying the situation for Brexit, the demand for the pound may return, which will lead to an increase in the pair above the resistance of 1.3122. In such a scenario, it is best to open short positions after testing the maximum of 1.3162 or for a rebound from a larger resistance at 1.3212.

More in the video forecast for March 28

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the bearish tone of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction, the average border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3170 will act as resistance.

N-4u4BffcZtxSzaRFGOL6Rldj05ZS9YTXzPRzdsc

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 28. Weak German inflation data upset euro buyers

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

If in the first half of the day, buyers of the European currency manages to keep above the support of 1.1240 and even attempted to resume an upward correction, then a weak inflation report led to a breakdown of this level. At the moment, it is best to consider long positions in the euro after updating the support of 1.1208 or buy on a rebound from a new low of 1.1176. The main task will be to return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1240 from where we can expect growth in the area of 1.1269.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Traders ignored the weak report on US GDP for the 4th quarter, as it did not become news to anyone. While the trade is conducted below the range of 1.1240, the pressure on the euro will continue and the purpose of the bears will be a around the minimum levels of 1.1208 and 1.1176, where I recommend taking profits. When the scenario of the EUR/USD pair returns to the resistance level of 1.1240 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1269 and 1.1294.

More in the video forecast for March 28

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the preservation of the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1269 will act as resistance.

N549zobDtFgwpkd66xUfY3VovxsmSYc4DvJ5nBzm

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The world's largest Central Banks supported the dollar

GlGECKByCVoywktWsZIcN8xy_tYeAqHg3Mwbz2zX

The dollar, despite a number of negative factors, does not think to lower its head. The US currency is becoming more expensive again, due to the fact that all the major central banks have chosen a "pigeon" tone in relation to monetary policy in the face of worsening global economic prospects. For example, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stunned the markets, saying it was likely to lower interest rates. Such sentiments put pressure on major currencies, and the dollar looks more convincing against this background. We can even say that it is not the dollar that is growing, but its competitors are falling.

The strong position of the currency can not shake even the decline in yields on US Treasury bonds. The yield of Treasury bonds is still at attractive levels compared to peers in the eurozone. Thus, while such currencies as the euro are falling, the dollar, in turn, will grow. In addition, the potential of the euro is limited after the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, said that the increase in interest rates may be postponed until a later date.

rM051RlHxGtvtsnuvXV2uFvBvca3x16npsmOdIB_

Currencies that are sensitive to the state of the world economy will continue to decline in price due to growing risks for the world economy. The New Zealand dollar literally lost 1.6 percent in a day, and this is not the limit. The Australian dollar is almost 0.7 percent. The yen, which is considered a safe haven, has every chance of continuing growth against the background of the movement of Japanese stocks but is still at some distance from a six-week high of 109.70 yen per dollar reached on Monday.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the EUR / USD pair - placement of trading orders on March 28

The Euro/Dollar currency pair showed low volatility of 43 points for the past trading day, as a result of continuing downward movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a further downward movement, where the quotation closely approached the periodic level of 1.1230, on the area where clusters were repeatedly noted. Information and news background developed at the controversial long-playing Brexit. Yesterday, the British Parliament once again held a vote and there were eight votes on alternative options for the secession of the country from the EU. The only thing that was agreed upon was the consolidation of new dates for leaving the European Union in legislation is either without a deal on April 12 or on May 22. A complete dead end, otherwise, it is impossible to identify it. In turn, Prime Minister Theresa May said that it will once again put to the vote all the same agreement for consideration by the House of Commons on March 29. I note that on Friday, March 29, is the last day for making a decision. Otherwise, it's hard Brexit.

tHkqvITtG7tlz1FbyPQ3XOfUJfah_CgpOTVOL4OK

In terms of today's economic calendar, we have the final data on the United States GDP for the fourth quarter, where a significant slowdown in economic growth from 3.4% to 2.4% is expected.

Further development:

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we can see forming versatile candles, such as doji, within the level of 1.1230. It is likely to assume that the descending interest will continue against the general background, but today, bad statistics are coming out of the States as mentioned above. Moreover, it can play in favor of strengthening the euro, forming a rollback and level testing.

Ll-w_RU4d4dRj-lss6iPbBDAH-oQlty3JAZ_9fzE

Based on the available data, it is possible to deduct a number of variations, let's consider them:

- We consider buying positions in the case of price fixing higher than 1.1270 with the target at 1.1290-1.1300.

- We consider selling positions in the case of price fixing lower than 1.1230 with the target at 1.1180.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we can see that in the short term there is an upward interest against the background of stagnation and attempts to refine the level. Intraday and mid-term outlook preserve the downward interest against the general background of the market.

Yf8TXLTNQ1koMYlPssbE6WnT1gGW8_jgv0UEBvL7

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 28 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 27 points. It is likely that we will still see an increase in volatility by the end of the working day due to the news background.

49yR-9AScF73gN30TD4qGgSqXv2loKMZ71ImDsRh

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1230 *; 1.1180; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. March 28. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The British Parliament rejected all alternatives to Brexit.

4-hour timeframe

cyfZfDurCj_hKnux-b-3DjFyOezTd2ZxUp-fjuAU

Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 25.0561

Yesterday, the currency pair GBP/USD had every chance to jerk in one of the parties. For the pound sterling, Wednesday was another day X, which, as usual, ended with decisions that did not clarify the situation too much. All variants of Brexit, and there were as many as 8, including a repeated referendum, the refusal to leave the EU, the format of "Norway +", the "hard" scenario. All this led to the fact that the Parliamentarians decided to postpone the Brexit deadlines at the legislative level. And the only and best option for Britain to leave the EU now is an agreement proposed by Theresa May and rejected by Parliament 2 times. Honestly, it is difficult to even imagine what the UK is waiting for even in the next few months. If May does not accept the "deal", the country will leave the EU on the "hard" scenario on April 12. That is, in two weeks. As the yesterday's vote showed, the unordered Brexit is not needed by Britain. The transfer of Brexit on May 23? Then parliament must approve the May agreement. In general, the voting in parliament passed once again, but there was no more clarity. The pound sterling yesterday added a bit to volatility, but it remains in one place, since there is no less uncertainty. No major macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Thursday in the UK.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3123

S3 - 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3245

R2 - 1.3306

R3 - 1.3367

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD continues to trade around the MA, in a frank flat. Thus, we recommend waiting for the completion of this flat and only after that resume trading. Unfortunately, yesterday's meeting of the British Parliament did not make the whole Brexit process even a little clearer, as were its prospects.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. March 28. The trading system. "Regression Channels". US GDP report can help European currency

4-hour timeframe

VZck3EvHsipd8CAnHhc8Pn6Er7faFoQkQuYh2zRx

Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -106.4332

On Thursday, March 28, the currency pair EUR/USD continues to move down, breaking the Murray level of "1/8". Yesterday, Mario Draghi did not please the markets and traders with his performance in Frankfurt. There was too much "pigeon" rhetoric, "fears" and "downside risks." Thus, traders were deprived of the fundamental grounds for purchases of the European currency. On the penultimate trading day of the week in Europe, no important macroeconomic publications are planned. But the United States should receive a report on GDP for the fourth quarter, the index of expenditure on personal consumption. Of course, the greatest interest will be caused by the GDP report with a forecast of 2.4 g / g. Needless to say, any value below the forecast with a high degree of probability will cause pressure on the US currency, which, in tandem with the euro, has recently been approaching its price highs again. That may not please Trump. At the same time, a strong report on GDP can support the US currency up to the Murray's level of 1.1200 - "-1/8", and this is the minimum value of the pair over the past year and a half and the lowest point of the area that the pair has somehow tried to overcome 7 times. From a technical point of view, there are no signs of the beginning of the correction, as the Heikin Ashi indicator is pointing down.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1230

S2 - 1.1200

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1261

R2 - 1.1292

R3 - 1.1322

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR/USD continues to move down. Thus, it is now recommended to consider sell orders with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1200. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator to the top will indicate the beginning of an upward correction.

It is recommended to consider the long positions not earlier than the pair fixing back above the moving average line with targets at 1.1322 and 1.1353, since the trend, in this case, will change to an upward one.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 28, 2019

analytics5c9cc5693bc70.png

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705. The pair is still moving around the daily pivot point of 0.6882. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to 0.6882 and further to 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 28, 2019

analytics5c9cc3e33c9b0.png

Overview:

As expected; the EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1280. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1280 to the bottom around 1.1225. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1280 followed by 1.1310, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1179. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1280 and 1.1179; for that we expect a range of 101 pips (1.1280 - 1.1179). If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1280, the market will decline further to 1.1179. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1137 with a view to test the second support. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1280 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US refinery does not expect a decline by the end of the year, despite the drop in prices

Following the bidding on Wednesday, March 27, oil quotes became significantly cheaper. Nevertheless, experts are optimistic but they are not expecting a further price cut by the oil industry in the United States by the end of 2019.

-6niDUpRUojm-jit6VASbWDeNWSA8aSG8vMW1983

The sentiment of market participants was negatively affected by a report from the US Department of Energy. They mentioned that the country's black gold reserves increased by 2.8 million barrels over the week, which exceeded analysts' expectations. The growth of reserves was partly due to the closure of the pipeline in Houston, which negatively affected the volume of US exports.

Oil prices also reacted to the fall in the US stock market, which is usually accompanied by an increase in demand for treasury bonds. Investors also do not discount the risks associated with a possible slowdown in the global economy. The current situation is shaping the increase in demand for "safe haven" assets, experts sum up.

On Wednesday evening, the dollar appreciated in the currency market. According to analysts, this reduces the financial attractiveness of commodities traded in US dollars, including oil.

According to forecasts of a number of experts, the cost of WTI light oil will remain at around $60.19 per barrel at the end of this year, which is close in value to current quotes.

LDo1g7GRvQ75pOx3_3XHEmlg-6a49UQIqr2brpX7

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR/USD divergence for March 28: the euro is still ready to fall to 1.1200

4h

AJJMuAO74yLDjwsGAHKXbw_GyP6Q2gefoyCnaiA7

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair attempted to consolidate above the retracement level of 23.6% (1.1269), but it ended in failure. Thus, the process of falling quotations can be continued on March 28 in the direction of the next retracement level of 0.0% (1.1177). Today, emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator. The closing of the pair above the Fibo level of 23.6% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the euro currency and expect some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2% (1.1328).

The Fibo grid is built on the grounds of extremums from January 10, 2019, and March 7, 2019.

Daily

b8JVQAml2u8KwZje3ZatWrY52MpxgOEYaI9ZQk5Q

As seen on the 24-hour chart, the quotes of the pair completed the close under the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285). As a result, the fall in quotations may continue in the direction of the next Fibo level of 161.8% (1.0941). However, for a long period of time, the pair continues to trade along the retracement level of 127.2%. Therefore, it is possible to expect a fall to the retracement level of 161.8%, but the probability of this is small.

The Fibo grid is built on the grounds of extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading recommendations

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1328 if the pair closes above the level of 1.1269. The stop-loss order should be placed under the retracement level of 23.6%.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177, as the pair completed closing below the retracement level of 1.1269. The stop-loss order should be placed above the Fibo level of 23.6%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The situation on Brexit returned to the starting point, it is impossible to stay or go

f-I9sxJA3hnCW-FaDe4tJn94rWfINGni40DSibjQ

The pound sterling against the dollar is still under pressure, waiting for clarification of the situation around Brexit.

Usj6t7-w4GfmViuVKZBZPEbHDLZd1_GbODbEoPE4

The British parliamentarians rejected all eight voting alternatives related to Brexit, demonstrating only that they are categorically against the country's withdrawal from the European Union without an agreement and that the idea of holding a new referendum enjoys the greatest support.

The only thing that was finally agreed upon by the deputies of the House of Commons is the postponement of the Brexit date to May 22, if the deal with the EU is approved before March 29, or April 12 - otherwise.

According to Stephen Barclay, Minister for Brexit Affairs, the results of an "exemplary" vote confirmed that the draft deal with Brussels, proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May, is the best option possible.

It should be noted that this vote did not oblige the British government to anything, but with its help, the deputies of the House of Commons hoped to find a way out of the political impasse.

It is assumed that on Friday the Prime Minister may once again submit to the deputies a draft "divorce" agreement, already twice rejected by Parliament.

Thus, the uncertainty around Brexit intensified, and even the statement made by Theresa May on the eve of the readiness to leave the post of prime minister did not bring the country closer to resolving this issue. Apparently, Foggy Albion is waiting for the decisive two days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 28, 2019

analytics5c9ca40d17830.png

Overview:

Pivot: 0.7112.

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards thae first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD divergence for March 28: pound sterling remains in the restricted area

4h

FDNhUec8W_A4mQhrxI6hpS8xhk5bTmWU5csKnLM9

As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD continues to trade in a narrow price range. Going beyond it will allow traders to count on the resumption of directional movement. Closing under the "blue" area will work in favor of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094). Closing quotes over the "blue" area will allow expecting growth to the retracement level of 100.0%. The emerging divergences on March 28 are not found in any indicator or on any chart.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

55WfRPgzbsYGWcdB9xWH_JfBnBVtYkde9gZ2bdAp

As seen on the hourly chart, the pair performed a fall below the Fibo level 50.0% (1.3171), after which a reversal in favor of the British currency and closing above this level. As a result, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2% (1.3220). The consolidation of the pair's quotes below the Fibo level of 50.0% will work again in favor of the American currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.3121).

The Fibo grid is built on extremes of March 11, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with targets at 1.3220 and 1.3281 and a stop-loss order below the 50.0% level, as the pair closed above 1.3171 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3121 and a stop-loss order above the 50.0% level if the pair closes below the retracement level of 1.3171 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis for GBP / USD pair on March 28. The Parliament of Great Britain did not accept anything important

Wave counting analysis:

w9XwLZ5eY2-B3SEJCFKXozLEICpeGMhpyw7eQ1sQ

On March 27, the GBP/USD pair fell by 40 basis points. Such a low market activity is explained by the fact that the British government did not take any important and unexpected decisions, despite the important parliamentary votes last night. All 8 options for Brexit were rejected by a majority of deputies. The only thing parliament has come to is the agreement to postpone Brexit to a later date. What Brexit will be like when this "later date" comes is still not clear and the instrument continues to be traded in a small price range. The outlook of the wave assumes the construction of a downward wave 3. But how does this wave form considering that the markets simply do not want to trade a pair? - That is, thanks to the news background.

Purchase targets:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern assumes the construction of a downward wave 3 has currently GBP/USD traders have no desire to trade. Hence, we need to wait until this market mood passes. So far, there is no reason to change the wave marking and the news background does not affect the tool.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of USD/CHF for March 28, 2019

USD/CHF has been trapped in a range of 0.9850 to 1.0130, trading with higher volatility. USD regained momentum ahead of US GDP report which is expected to reveal contraction in the US economic growth in Q4.

US GDP has grown quite well since January 2016 but failed to sustain momentum it had since the beginning of the upward trend. The GDP expanded to 4.2% in mid-2018 but economic growth saw a rapid downturn just after hitting the peak. Today GDP is expected to slow down a pace of growth to 2.4% from the previous value of 2.6%. If the forecast comes true, this will be bearish for USD.

analytics5c9c69220ccee.png

Switzerland GDP is expected to have risen in January but with more modest growth than expected. After GDP contraction in Q4 2018, positive changes inidicate some hope but do not guarantee sustainable economic growth.

Moreover, today US Unemployment claims report is going to be published. The number of jobless claims is expected to increase marginally to 222k from 221k. FOMC members Clarida and Bowman are going to speak later today. Their speeches are likely to be neutral in contents. Today Andrea Maechler, a member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, is going to shed light on the key interest rate and monetary policy. The comments are likely to be neutral. So, the speech will hardly create a lot of buzz in the market. USD gains may not be affected for this reason. US GDP report which is due later today is the most important thing to watch for traders. Today's GDP report is the key to market sentiment which will establish trend momentum. Thus, the pair is going to complete the correctional and consolidation phase.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit: All the proposed scenarios for Brexit failed in Parliament. May is ready to resign

The British pound fell after it became known that according to the results of voting in the British Parliament, no Brexit scenario received the support of the majority.

This scenario, of course, was considered by investors and traders, so the pressure on the pound was limited, and the overall situation remained the same.

Below are the scenarios that were voted on and the ratio of votes:

  • The British Parliament voted against Brexit disorder with a vote ratio of 400-160.
  • The Parliament of Great Britain voted against participation in the EU single market with a ratio of votes of 377-65.
  • The British Parliament voted against participating in the Customs Union with the EU with a vote ratio of 272-264.
  • The Parliament of Great Britain voted against the abolition of Brexit with a vote ratio of 293-185.
  • The British Parliament voted against holding a referendum on the Brexit plan with a vote ratio of 295-268.

Given that the further situation with Brexit only continues to worsen, British Prime Minister Theresa May did not go unprecedented, in her opinion, a step and said she was ready to resign. However, there are a number of "buts" that need to be taken into account by parliaments.

Theresa May said she was ready to resign and would not stand in the way of electing new leadership, but on condition that her Brexit agreement would be accepted and approved by Parliament. May told lawmakers that she was aware of the desire to appoint new leadership at the second stage of the Brexit negotiations and that she would not prevent the election of a new leader.

Thus, the situation was not clarified but became even more complicated. We are waiting for the appointment of a new date for the third vote on the Brexit plan from Theresa May, which was blocked this Tuesday.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Large support levels and the lower limit of the channel are seen in the area of 1.3160-55, while the upper limit is confidently located near the highs of the week in the area of 1.3255-60.

Yesterday, there were data on the US, which were ignored by the market. According to the report, the current account deficit of the balance of payments in the 4th quarter in the United States. As indicated in the report, the deficit amounted to 134.38 billion US dollars, whereas in the 3rd quarter of 2018, it was at the level of 126.6 billion dollars. Economists had expected a deficit of $ 132.55 billion in the fourth quarter.

_HoXEhtc0Faaw1VnATbwdggY0sen8cB8ufHMK4_7

The speech of Esther George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, did not have an impact on the US dollar, although it gave him a small upward impulse against risky assets. George stated that the wait-and-see position of the Central Bank seems appropriate, as downside risks to the US economy are still noticeable.

She expects a slowdown in GDP growth to the corresponding trend, as well as a decrease in employment rates. Despite this, in her opinion, the fundamental economic indicators will remain quite strong.

The representative of the Fed also drew attention to both the positive aspects and the shortcomings in the Fed's new approach to monetary policy.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, neither the bulls nor the bears managed to change the situation yesterday. Trading in the side channel with a break of resistance 1.1270 will give an upward impulse to the trading instrument, which will lead to a test of highs of 1.1300 and 1.1330. If the bears continue to control the market and keep the pair below the resistance of 1.1300, pressure on risky assets will increase, which will lead to the breakdown of the level of 1.1240 and the update of new local minima near 1.1205 and 1.1170.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones of USD / JPY pair on 03/28/19

Yesterday, the pair re-tested the 1/2 CZ of 110.65-110.57 that led to the formation of the "false breakdown" pattern and allowed to enter the sale. The first goal of the fall is a weekly minimum with the probability of reaching it by 70 percent. When testing this extremum, it will be necessary to close part of the sales and transfer the rest of the volume to breakeven.

Dfhwdo85kSxSH-w78lcLkLuG1WlIqv_jxCxsBoEz

Working in the downward direction implies re-sales in obtaining favorable prices. Trading in a pulsed motion allows you to hold sales for fixing at more favorable prices.

An alternative model will be developed if the closing of today's trading will be at the same level or higher than the opening. This will lead to the formation of "absorption" pattern at the trading level, which will stop the depreciation and tell you about the need to exit sales on a breakeven. Working in the upward direction from current marks has a probability of 30%, which makes it not profitable.

4q8vX-RUxtXuI17LsJeLyIP8-I6Rc_w3eBzFAJCf

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD firms amid Europe's weakened economy

EUR has been struggling to gain and sustain the momentum it acquired against AUD since the price bounced off the 1.6750 area in the beginning of 2019. The Australian currency managed to keep its gains against the euro despite the economic challenges in the country.

In case the economic slowdown continues, the ECB may delay a planned increase in interest rates. According to ECB President Draghi, the bank will continue adaptive monetary policy. Though the risk of the financial instability increases as banks' profit declines amid the weak economic growth, the euro is still managing to hold its positions.

analytics5c9c7c268d928.png

According to the statistical data, the eurozone's interest rate has not seen a significant rise above 5% since 2000, and starting from late 2016, the rates have been unchanged. The European Central Bank is looking forward to hike its rates this year, but as Brexit remains a major factor affecting the growth, the likehood of the rate's increase is uncertain.

Today Europe's M3 Money Supply report is going to be published. It is expected to advance to 3.9% from the previous value of 3.8%. Meanwhile, private loans are also anticipated to rise to 3.3% from the previous level of 3.2%. Though the economic reports that can effect the monetary policy met the expectations, any negative factor may lead to significant change in the ECB's further policy.

Recently, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy stated that the optimistic outlook of the ECB for 2019 might come true as the economy is not in recession, and the European regulator is prepared for any worse situation.

On the other hand, Australia is struggling with the housing sector decline, while mixed employment data helped the currency to sustain its gains against EUR. Australia's jobless rate fell to its 8-year low in February, but the employment change showed significant downturn to 4.6k from the previous figure of 38.3k.

Currently, AUD is expected to regain momentum against EUR, while the eurozone's economy is experiencing a slowdown ahead of this week's Brexit parliamentary vote. Though the euro'sgains may trigger some upward correction of the pair, the bearishtrend is still strong enoughto push the price lower.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 28, 2019

Bitcoin has managed to sustain the bullish momentum, holding above $4,000 area at a daily close. The impulsive upward trend, which pushed the price above $4,000 area shortly after a break below it, indicates bulls' strength.

The price has successfully formed the Elliott wave with a proper wave 3. Currently, it is correcting at the wave 4 and is gathering strength to push higher towards $4,250 area with the wave 5 bullish support. The price is held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA, having reversed the bearish trend for several times inside the consolidating period. The price formation and structure with such impulsive bullish momentum indicate a high possibility of further upward move in the coming days as long as the price remains above $4,000 area.

SUPPORT: 3,500-600, 3,800-80, 4,000

RESISTANCE: 4,250, 4,500, 5,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: Brexit's entertaining alphabet or welcome to the third round

Last week, the Minister of European Affairs of France, Nathalie Loiseau, publicly joked that she called her cat by the name of "Brexit" because she constantly asked to go outside but when she opened the door, she refused to go out. This allegory very accurately describes the behavior of the British Parliament, which managed to reject all eight legislative initiatives just yesterday and designated the options for the development of further events. Although it was an indicative vote, the results of which are not binding. The results made it possible to understand what moods are ruling among British parliamentarians.

If we place all 8 proposed projects on a kind of "hardness scale" then we can conclude that the House of Commons has softened its position in many ways regarding further relations with the European Union. For example, the variant "J" scored as much as 264 votes, which according to Britain has to create a customs union with the EU after Brexit. About 272 deputies voted against it, hence, the odds turned out to be minimal. We also considered the "D" option, which included the "Common Market 2.0" option, in which the UK would remain in the European Economic Area and agree with the EU on a temporary customs union. This is valid until an alternative is found and supported by 188 deputies.

VpT9GRiRtoGQm069lf0UHfzWF9FfndmdA3nWAY4D

Another option is "M", which suggested holding a repeated referendum on the country's withdrawal from the EU. This initiative was supported by 268 parliamentarians while 295 were against it. Previously, such ideas were categorically rejected by the House of Commons with a larger margin of votes. It is difficult to say exactly which factors changed the position of the deputies either because of the numerous protests of the British or the fear of the chaotic Brexit, who acquired real traits and a real date.

However, if we compare the results of voting on the above proposals with tougher initiatives, the difference in the level of support is obvious. For example, only 160 deputies voted for the option under the letter "B", which supposes withdrawal from the EU without entering into any agreement while 400 parliamentarians voted against this idea at once.

All other proposed options such as "O" "L" "K" and "H" has repeated the essence of the above scenarios to some extent. For example, holding a referendum on any of the options for an agreement with Brussels and none of them found to be supported by the hall of the House of Commons. Such an "entertaining alphabet of Brexit" says that the deputies are ready to consider one remaining option which is to the draft government deal. According to the information of British journalists, many conservatives, who previously voted against the agreement have reconsidered their point of view after realizing that there is no alternative. The results of yesterday can only strengthen this opinion because the choice was not great by and large where either the parliament approves the deal or the country will leave the EU on 12 April that is if deputies want it or not. Brussels set its time frame and London is forced to reckon with them. Brussels set its time frame while London is forced to reckon with them.

Another factor of a more mercenary nature may also affect the determination of "doubting" conservatives. The fact is that Theresa May promised yesterday her party members to resign this summer if the House of Commons supports her draft deal. This statement by the prime minister increases the chances of approval of the agreement, especially in the light of the results of indicative votes. In addition, conservatives need to take into account the fact that among the British there is ripening dissatisfaction with the actions of the current government, which is reflected in the overall Tory political rating. Therefore, the approval of the transaction and the reboot of the cabinet will relieve the general tension in society and reduce the degree of discontent.

T5bgGJS_oKhUh7Rgpo9m0zZqBgRd0JQR5hFyAG3C

The press has already called the possible successors to May, namely Jeremy Hunt (the current foreign minister), Michael Gove (the minister of the environment) and David Lidington (the head of the government secretariat). All of them have a rather soft position in the context of further relations with Brussels, thus their appointment will be positively perceived by the British currency. However, a possible victory for Boris Johnson, who is also a favorite of the political race, will be an unpleasant surprise for GBP/USD traders. He is the most zealous and consistent supporter of the tough Brexit and at the same time, his opponent is May. This is the most undesirable candidate for supporters of maintaining close business contacts with the European Union, thus, his arrival will have a strong downward pressure on the pound.

However, it's still too early to talk about potential candidates. On order for May to keep her word, the conservatives need to rally themselves first and then convince 10 more deputies (from among unionists or other political forces) to support the long-suffering deal. In addition, the deputies need to convince the Speaker of the House of Commons to put the agreement to a vote. Hypothetically, this is possible, but for this, the parliamentary majority must be "under the banner" of Theresa May. Are the deputies ready to take such a step? We will know in the near future.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (March 28)

Over the past trading day, the currency pair British pound/ US dollar showed volatility which is almost equal to the average daily 115 points, as a result of the name of the jump, which did not lead to anything. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quote broke through the accumulation of 1.3170/ 1.3220 due to the massive information background at the time, but the bearish heat turned out to be small, and is already in the Pacific-Asian session. Thus, we quickly returned to the framework of the previous stagnation. Now, let's talk about the very massive information background that took place yesterday. Regular debates were held in the British Parliament, where they rejected all eight alternative ways to withdraw from the EU. The only thing that was agreed upon was the fixing of new dates for leaving the European Union in legislation: either on April 12 without a deal, or on May 22. Everything that happens in Britain can be described as one big dead end, and there is literally no more time. In the media, they are trying to exaggerate the topic with yesterday's statement by Prime Minister Theresa May, where some write that she will resign as soon as the parliament accepts the agreement, others say that the resignation is scheduled for the summer, and still others affirmatively state the resignation of Theresa as soon as Brexit takes place. Now, you understand why the trading schedule behaved this way - because there is a complete confusion in everything.

-fZ0YSCns2CszdSdJY2GXEwBazSQPdu5UdRLsL_w

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have the final data on the United States GDP for the fourth quarter, where they expect a significant slowdown in economic growth from 3.4% to 2.4%. Naturally, this news will play negatively on the US currency, but do not forget about the general information background of Britain, where things are even worse.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that, returning to the accumulation framework of 1.3170 / 1.3220, the quotation was still under some uncertainty, and the current attempts to return the descending positions clearly confirm this theory to us. It is likely to preserve uncertainty, where traders analyze not just price fixes lower than 1.3170, but already values of 1.3142, comparing all this with the information background, which will continue to spontaneously take off on the market.

H7JDeDfHUe0aQUKP4_fgYytUdyjvcpQJN6tnrc_J

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Traders consider buying positions in the event of a price fixing higher than 1.3200, with the prospect of a move to 1.3220-1.3250.

- Positions for sale, as written in the previous review, many traders were aimed at fixing prices lower than 1.3170, which, in principle, happened. Positions are now saved, but if there was no entry, then we are waiting for a fix below 1.3142.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest on the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term.

DUohGavh5bSGxNnxvqpLxVTQOPPP7RjfsaNvvBNv

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 28 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 55 points. It is likely to assume that due to the confusion on the information background, coupled with the news background coming out today, volatility can be maintained at a high level.

r4EQ6Xw1takPmcttw5AHQUvopwM3SlaleCYWttGy

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 03/28/2019

European currencies are still under pressure due to ongoing crisis around Brexit. On Wednesday, the British Parliament held 6 votes on various options for resolving the Brexit issue - but none received a majority. The relative majority received options for a "soft" exit from the EU (in fact, the preservation of all trade conditions in the EU) and the option of a new referendum. May's suggestion that she was willing to resign if her plan received support did not have the desired effect.

On Thursday, the search for a solution to Brexit in the Parliament will continue.

EURUSD: The statement of the ECB head regarding a possible increase in the deposit rate for banks and the withdrawal of this rate from the negative zone - only slightly supported the euro. But the fall stopped.

We are waiting for the break of the range boundaries and the beginning of the trend.

wNSRp0TOX4ESdm34W8OVHFszHUnP8Yp_Vzi6tXyL

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for March 28, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1234 is the support line (blue thick line). Most likely, it will be repulsed from this line up.

qwgyGElkqezVKw-0z1Vuz_M9G_hp5swUgzeBd7A-

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1234 is the support line (blue thick line). Most likely, it will be repulsed from this line up.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for March 28, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, there is a high probability of a downward movement. The first lower target of 1.3135 is the rolling level of 23.6% (blue dotted line).

rC2IHcvrgV98KIXTJsXgDpaaT5eQmL-JdL1ACJs8

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, there is a high probability of a downward movement. The first lower target of 1.3135 is the rolling level of 23.6% (blue dotted line). The chances of breaking through this level are high.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 28. ECB and Mario Draghi do not allow the Eurocurrency to grow

40s_6R9gXJ78SJtkHY0rxiwdSN13MWH1Lm_mErj3

Wave counting analysis:

On Wednesday, March 27, trading ended for EUR / USD by another 15 bp decline. Thus, the assumed wave b continues its construction, taking the clearly expressed three-wave form. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 76.4% can lead to a departure of quotes from the reached highs and the completion of the construction of wave b. If these are true, then the tool from the current positions will attempt to start building a wave with targets located above the 14th figure. The current wave counting is characterized by almost one-dimensional waves. On the other hand, the news background for the pair remains neutral, despite the statements of Mario Draghi about the downside risks for the EU economy and the launch of a new long term loan program for ECB banks.

Sales targets:

1.1240 - 76.4% Fibonacci (small grid)

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair supposedly completed or is close to completing the construction of wave b. Now, I recommend waiting for a new signal to complete the current downward wave. Such a signal may already be an unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 76.4% Fibonacci. Consequently, you can try small purchases with restrictive orders below the level of 76.4%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 03/28/2019

It seems that no one has understood why the House of Commons had arranged this whole farce. The parliamentarians made a strong-willed decision and rejected all the alternative for the relocation of the European home, which was already eight. After lengthy disputes and discussions, the elected representatives of Her Majesty's people came to the conclusion that a way out without an agreement was a bad idea. Yes, and the abolition of Brexit and they were rejected, as they are well aware that such a decision will cause bewilderment of voters, and they all will have to complete their political career. A second referendum, approximately from the same plane as the cancellation of Brexit, was also rejected. Thus, the best people of the country sitting in the House of Commons unequivocally expressed that it was necessary to "divorce" only with an agreement. The only trouble is that the existing agreement categorically does not suit them. During a divorce, it often happens that one side of this most pleasant process wants to take over everything — the yacht and the rusty bicycle. Europe immediately declared that there would be no more negotiations on Brexit. There is an agreement, and London either accepts it or not. And the point. In turn, Theresa May said that for the third time, she would submit an agreement to the House of Commons on March 29, that is the last day when it can be done, and after Brexit, she would immediately resign. And in fact, voting in the House of Commons did not change anything, so there is still uncertainty on the issue on the market.

9RppndjMlkk4Jw3OuTBv21mvr-V-HlWaeItrsHn8

Since nothing has changed and the situation will be resolved only tomorrow, today we should pay attention to macroeconomic statistics. Especially since there are extremely important data on the GDP of the United States. But before that, consumer lending data will be published in Europe, the growth rate of which should accelerate from 3.2% to 3.3%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States may remain virtually unchanged. So, even before the publication of GDP data, the single European currency has a reason for growth. The final data on GDP themselves are expected to show a slowdown in economic growth from 3.4% to 2.4%, while preliminary data showed a slowdown to 2.6%. In other words, not only is the economy of the United States slowing down, it is doing so much faster than expected.

The euro/dollar currency pair shows a steady decline, converging as a result with the periodic level border of 1.1230, where the pivot point is located. It is likely to assume that the pullback that we see now will continue, directing the quotation towards 1.1280 - 1.1285.

GFzRhb2SsJguegwm_RNMvoOJB5WO1koni9nprTIB

The currency pair pound/dollar retains a certain uncertainty in the actions, being still in the cluster of 1.3170 / 1.3220. It is likely to assume that the movement within the specified framework will continue, where traders will continue to monitor the information background.

Pcdg-DllBYvjMbyqcberWN5vobnUIwLgRPqqUQVm

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EURUSD for March 28, 2019

EURUSD remains in a bearish trend as price continues to make lower lows and lower highs inside the short-term bearish channel. Medium-term trend remains bearish after the fake breakout at 1.14. So bulls need to recapture that price level in order to regain control of the trend.

analytics5c9c7548689d8.png

Red line - major resistance trend line

Green line - support

Blue lines - bearish short-term channel

EURUSD is trading around 1.1250 above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.Trend remains bearish in the short and medium-term. For short-term trend to change to bullish EURUSD will need to make a 4 hour close above 1.1320. Medium-term trend will change to bullish on a weekly close above 1.14. So far bulls were unable to hold price above 1.14 and sellers remain stronger showing that they want to push price below 1.12.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for Gold for March 28, 2019

Gold price made a strong pull back yesterday towards $1,310 breaking below the short-term support trend line providing a short-term top at $1,324.50. Medium-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above $1,300-$1,280 area.

analytics5c9c73aecfc43.png

Blue rectangle - resistance area

Blue line - short-term support trend line (broken)

Green line - major trend support area

Gold price despite the $14 pull back from $1,324.50 to $1,310 continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Although we have a short-term bearish signal by breaking below the blue trend line support, medium-term trend remains bullish as long as Gold is above $1,280. Currently Gold price has pulled back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the last leg up. Price could continue lower towards $1,300-$1,296 area where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Don't forget that Gold price topped just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline, so keep this Fibonacci level in mind as it is very important. Gold bulls were warned to be cautious. Now they want to see Gold price find support around $1,300 and then start a new leg higher and eventually break above $1,324.50 for a move to $1,350-60. On the other hand bears do not want the top at $1,324.50 to be broken. As long as price is below this level they hope for new selling pressures to arise and push price below major support levels at $1,280. This would open the way for a move towards $1,250-60 area.

Concluding, major levels to keep in mind are at $1,324 and at $1,280. $1,300 is also an important level to keep in mind but not as decisive as the other two price levels.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 28/03/2019

Technical market overview:

Despite the bullish effort to break through the technical resistance at the level of 1.3258 again the price of GBP/USD pair is has reversed and now is trading back below the level of 1.3200. The market conditions are now clearly overbought and the momentum is neutral-to-negative, so this is why the continuation of the down move is anticipated. If the level of 1.3145 is violated, the sell-off might accelerate towards the level of 1.3012 again.

Weekly Pivot Ponts:

WR3 - 1.3650

WR2 - 1.3473

WR1 - 1.3340

Weekly Pivot - 1.3164

WS1 - 1.3039

WS2 - 1.2867

WS3 - 1.2742

Trading recommendations:

The market is still under the technical resistance, so the bias for the daytraders remains bearish and only sell orders should be opened as close as possible to the level of 1.3258 with a protective stop loss just above the level of 1.3268. The target would be the other side of the horizontal trading range, at 1.3012.

analytics5c9c725c19db3.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The uncertainty factor will continue to lead the markets

The situation in the world markets is still far from understanding the further prospects for its development. On the one hand, the markets hope that the current slowdown in the growth of the Chinese and American economies and the first signs of a recession in Europe are generated by the problems of trade wars and are temporary phenomena. On the other hand, there is an understanding that this may be the real beginning of a new economic crisis.

In our opinion, the current situation is very noticeably different from what it was before. The best example was when the biggest economic crisis after the Second World War broke out 10 years ago. Previously, for example, in the second half of the twentieth century, the US economy came out of the crisis, as they say, in a natural way without the help of the state, which has not engaged in direct financing of the local stock market, and only to carry out adjustment by raising or lowering interest rates and tax levels. In 2009, an unprecedented decision was made to provide incentives through state support. We are talking about the notorious programs of quantitative easing, which were also adopted in a number of other economically developed countries, for example, in Britain, and in the euro area.

These measures led to a strong increase in US public debt and made the dynamics of the local stock market completely dependent on the Fed's liquidity inflows. In fact, there is now an unusual picture. The growth of the stock market is entirely dependent on the Fed. The situation at the end of last year confirmed this. When the Fed decided to raise interest rates in December and predicted two more increases this year, the local financial market collapsed, forcing the regulator to actually return to its previous practice, which can be described as an effect of when the tail wags the dog. One can say that the Fed policy has made it completely dependent on the situation in the markets, which is abnormal and will eventually end in a full-scale collapse of the local financial system with all the ensuing problems for the global economy. In the meantime, markets are hoping for help from the Fed, which, in fact, is the third important factor supporting the demand for risky assets.

Observing what is happening, we note that while the above three factors affect the markets, which are currently burdened with Brexit's full-scale problem, most likely, a high degree of volatility will be observed in financial markets. In the foreign exchange market, there will be a general lateral dynamics, generated by a high degree of uncertainty.

Forecast of the day:

The pair EURUSD is holding above 1.1250. Investors are awaiting new economic statistics and news on Brexit, which expires on March 29. If Parliament adopts T. May's plan, it can support the pair, and it will grow to 1.1285. If this does not happen, it can continue falling to 1.1215, and then 1.1175.

The pair USDJPY pair continues to be under pressure. It can continue to fall to 109.60 if it is held below 110.25.

ShXDHT6tKRvmrbARuYT62qE-njzfgAVeZONEjrr4

Vtqa-JBj4kst_K-1fv0ywiMxfxJu4_SjLUzThbw1

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD for March 28, 2019

analytics5c9c53551cfb7.jpg

Technical outlook:

The 4H chart presented here for EUR/USD is looming with probabilities on both sides. We suggest the price could go in the common direction. The first scenario presented suggests that the previous rally between 1.1175 through 1.1448 was Wave 1 and the subsequent drop towards 1.1245 is Wave 2 as labelled here. In that case, Wave 3 higher should resume any moment, while prices remain above 1.1175 going forward. The other probable count could be bearish since the drop from 1.1148 levels can be now counted as 5 waves impulse as well (not labelled here to avoid overlap). If the latter scenario prevails, we could witness at least a pullback rally towards 1.1350/70 levels before the drop continues lower below 1.1175 levels. In either case, the immediate probability seems to be more inclined towards a rally, either a corrective or towards a new high. The bottom line is that prices should remain above 1.1175 for now.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain long against 1.1175 levels. Conservative traders remain flat for now.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDCHF 03/27/19

Yesterday, the pair once again tested the weekly KZ of 0.9914-0.9895, which led to an increase in demand. It is important to note that this zone is located within the monthly KZ. This allows you to buy the instrument risk-free until the end of this month, since the probability of remaining within this range is at 70%. It is necessary to take into account the fact that the growth is still a mid-term correction, therefore, consolidating profit on the upper limit of the flat is required.

t5Haq4ImlwPbHcDq-RL2gME77JNkN79d1Je2T0rS

Working within the flat's framework makes it possible for you to take profit in parts based on the pair's exit from the range. In this case, a partial transfer of purchases and sales to breakeven will be required.

An alternative model will be developed in case the pair breaks through yesterday's high and goes beyond the flat. The closing of the US session should be higher than yesterday. This will provide the most favorable prices for selling the tool in the future. The main resistance is still the NKZ 1/2 1.0006-0.9996, a test of which will make it possible for you to look for sales with a medium-term prospect and a high probability of updating the March low.

ulBQNCcc4siYmMlZIYyKRnEotruSijp9vztTi3xn

Daily KZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 28/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the technical support located at the level of 1.1249 and even a new local low was made at the level of 1.1242. The pair is still trading below the orange trendline, which is another clue regarding who is controlling the market: it unfolds as anticipated and the bearish pressure is still present, so the down move should continue towards the levels of 1.1249 and 1.1220. The nearest technical resistance for the bulls is seen at the level of 1.1284 and 1.1294.

Weekly Pivot Ponts:

WR3 - 1.1551

WR2 - 1.1500

WR1 - 1.1377

Weekly Pivot - 1.1325

WS1 - 1.1198

WS2 - 1.1148

WS3 - 1.1029

Trading recommendations:

The first target for bears at 1.1249 has been hit, but the move down might be still continued due to the weak and negative momentum. If it is so, then the next target is seen at the level of 1.1220 and even 1.1176. All the sell orders should be closed at one of these levels.

analytics5c9c701151e42.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com