Analysis of Bitcoin for November 12, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite bullish with the recent momentum which lead the price to reside at the edge of $6,400 area while having dynamic levels such as 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line supporting it. The price has recently broke above the Kumo Cloud resistance while Chikou Span is also residing above the price line which indicates further bullish momentum in the coming days with target towards $6,500 area. Though the price is still quite volatile and corrective but as it remains above $6,000 area with a daily close, the bulliish bias is expected to continue to push the price higher in the process.

SUPPORT: 6000

RESISTANCE: 6500, 7000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Alibaba captures record sales, or a fictional $ 30 billion holiday

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Chinese giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd released a report on record sales this Sunday, 213.5 billion yuan ($ 30.7 billion) in 24 hours.

Singles Day is the world's largest online sales event, ahead of Black Friday in the United States and Cyber Monday. This holiday appeared in China as an alternative to Valentine's Day for singles, so that people who are not yet in a pair, too, could please themselves with gifts. In the first hour after midnight alone, sales amounted to about $ 10 billion. This year, it took the company only 16 hours to surpass last year's sales record of 168 billion yuan. True, despite the record, the annual growth rate of sales fell from 39 to 27 percent, the slowest in the last 10 years.

This is because the company faces weaker sales prospects in the face of growing trade tensions between China and the United States. Earlier this month, management had revised its full-year sales forecast, lowering expectations, which in turn immediately affected the value of the company's shares, which this year fell by about 16 percent. The growth in online sales is also slowing in all directions in metropolitan areas, including Shanghai and Beijing. Alibaba said that about 75 percent of new users in the past quarter were from "less developed" areas of the country.

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Investors choose the dollar! How long will this choice be considered correct?

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The dollar has almost reached a 17-month high against a basket of major currencies, investors need a liquid and high-yielding currency amid unrest about the global economic growth and political risks in Italy and the UK.

Even a 2 percent jump in oil prices, which initially supported European markets, could not remedy the situation. In addition, investors are concerned about signs of slowing growth in China, and many believe that the actions of US President Donald Trump will further harm the economy of the Middle Kingdom. All of this, combined with political risk in Europe, pushed the dollar. As a result, the sterling lost more than 1 percent, and the euro, 0.7 percent, reaching the lowest level since July 2017.

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As expected, the dollar made a loud return, which was also facilitated by the decision of the Fed to adhere to plans to tighten monetary policy. The euro and the pound are increasingly lagging behind the US currency under pressure from political risks. The prospects for the pound are even worse, especially considering the upcoming problems in parliament.

There is no good news for the euro either. Italy remains the main focus. In the third largest economy in the eurozone, the ghosts of the banking crisis are already noticeable, with Italian banks falling 0.6 percent. And, probably, the euro will fall below $ 1.10 from the current $ 1.126. All this is good news for dollar bulls.

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Gold is getting cheaper due to the growth of the US stock market

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According to expert estimates, after the elections to the US parliament, the country's stock market showed a significant increase. Following him, the German DAX index rose. As a result, the cost of gold was under pressure, but experts predict a change in the current situation.

Elections to the US parliament supported the US stock market. Investors believe that the political situation in the country will change for the better, since the Democrats have achieved a majority in the House of Representatives, and the Republicans have increased their influence in the US Senate.

The price of the yellow metal has decreased significantly against the background of the growth of the US stock market. According to analysts, this rise will not bring much profit to investors, as it will be short-term.

After the parliamentary elections in the US, many market participants believe that the policy in the country will change, but experts do not share this optimism. They are confident that Donald Trump will have to negotiate with Democrats when making important decisions, such as the state budget, infrastructure programs and reducing the tax burden. The head of the White House will be forced to compromise with representatives of the Democratic Party and on a number of other key issues. At the same time, analysts have no doubt that the US national debt will continue its active growth. Recall for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, which ended in September, it increased by $ 1.3 trillion.

Nevertheless, the Democrats will not be able to influence the trade policy of the head of the White House, experts believe. Experts believe that the US president will further worsen trade relations with China in the event of a possible threat to the US economy. In this situation, along with the global economy, the American stock market may suffer. According to experts, in the event of a stagnation of the world economy, the US economy will also be in danger.

According to analysts' calculations, the growth of the US stock market after the parliamentary elections will be short-term, as will the decline in the price of gold. At the same time, the yellow metal will have to withstand the growth of the Fed rates and the strengthening of the US dollar, experts say.

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OPEC + reduces oil production

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Oil prices started this week with an active growth. A barrel of Brent North Sea oil added almost 2.5%, while WTI went up by 1.8%, experts say. They are trying to understand the causes of what is happening.

At the moment, OPEC + is moving from increasing oil production to reducing it. Recall, the cartel monitoring committee recommended the participating countries to reduce black gold production in December. The ministry also announced its intention to reduce the size of production in 2019.

The current news provoked a temporary rally in the market, analysts say. Previously, oil prices have been falling almost continuously since mid-October 2018. Last Friday, after entering the "bear phase", WTI oil showed a decline in the tenth session in a row.

According to experts, most OPEC + countries support the idea of reducing oil production to 1 million barrels per day. The authorities of Saudi Arabia, one of the leading countries in oil production, draw attention to the upward trend in world reserves of black gold. They also plan to cut production. According to Khaled al-Faleh, the kingdom's energy minister, the volume of oil purchasers' requests for December was 0.5 million barrels lower than in November.

Experts believe that the task of OPEC on balancing the market is significantly complicated. Recall that at the moment, the United States has increased its oil production to a record level. Thanks to this, the country can influence the world market much more actively, experts are sure. Previously, some experts have announced a change in the trend in the black gold market from downward to ascending. According to Michele Della Vigna, head of the European energy research division at Goldman Sachs, in the next decade, the global economy will face an acute shortage of oil supply. The expert noted that in the future, only a few oil and gas companies will be able to work with large investments in global projects for the extraction of hydrocarbons. Occupy a dominant position in the industry will be small organizations, I'm sure the specialist.

Analysts also pay attention to the so-called theory of the "oil peak", which has lately lost its sharpness a bit. The reason for this was the growth of shale oil production in the United States. Experts believe that the global market for oil and natural gas is strongly influenced by geopolitical factors, and this trend will increase.

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The dollar is not recommended to be sold even by those experts who predict its weakening.

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Despite the fact that many currency strategists predict a decline in the value of the American currency next year, some of them do not recommend opening short positions in the dollar now.

According to them, the signals of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States, which is not going to turn away from the tightening of monetary policy, contribute to the strengthening of the US currency.

Today, the dollar index is trading near the maximum level for the first time since May 2017.

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"As the Fed intends to adhere to the policy of raising interest rates, you can count on the dollar rate to rise at least until the end of the first quarter of next year," analysts at the Credit Agricole Group believe.

"The US economy is in good shape, the situation on the country's labor market continues to improve. It is unlikely that in the near future, the Fed will signal that it is close to the limit of increase in rates," said Societe Generale experts. However, they recognized that the dollar is overvalued. At some point in 2019, a correction may follow, but it is too early to sell the US currency.

"We expect that next year, the pace of growth in US GDP will slow down, which will put downward pressure on the dollar. However, in the near future, the American has every chance to grow stronger against the background of a weakening of the single European currency due to problems associated with Brexit and the Italian budget deficit," said experts at Bank of America.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 12, 2018

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Since September 13, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout above the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700. BUY entries were suggested around (1.2700).

As for the bullish DAILY breakout scenario to remain valid, quick bullish breakout above 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) was achieved two weeks ago.

This enhanced further bullish advance towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

Last week, signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated around the price zone of 1.3170-1.3200 (the depicted downtrend). This initiated the current bearish pullback. The initial bearish target was already reached around 1.2900.

Currently, the price zone of (1.2900-1.2850) now constitutes a prominent demand zone corresponding to the backside of the depicted trend line.

Conservative traders can have a valid BUY entry around the current price levels. T/P levels should be located around 1.2970 and 1.3100.

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The program "Strong America - Strong Dollar" in action

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The US dollar rose last Friday to its 16-month high against the euro, as the fall in stock prices forced the US Federal Reserve to confirm its position on tightening monetary policy, citing a strong US economy.

Thus, the dollar is still perfectly able to use any positive and even negative in its favor. Whether it is a trade war between Washington and Beijing, a significant decrease in the US stock market or mixed results of the mid-term elections.

However, the market received a very clear signal that, in any event, that threatens the dollar, the Federal Reserve, which, after Janet Yellen's departure, is under the control of the White House, will make it clear that it will increase the rate if requested "Strong America - Strong Dollar". Making allowances for this approach, analysts advise traders who work with dollar "longs" to increase their positions, since the risk of a dollar collapse is extremely low. In addition, the dollar has practically protected itself from losing the common European currency in the coming months, since Brussels is still not able to solve three key problems that threaten the euro exchange rate as well. Firstly, this is a prolonged Brexit deal on the Irish border. Secondly, this is a deficit budget of Italy, whose problems are not simpler than the Greek, and the economy is 10 times larger, and, thirdly, this is a migration policy that threatens Europe no longer unemployed Arabs, but a political split. All this will pull the euro down at least until February 2019.

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Hard Monday: the pound is again under pressure from Brexit

Markets again succumbed to despondency. Italy and Brexit increased their pressure, as the likelihood of the worst-case scenarios is growing "not by the day, but by the hour". The pound opened the trading week with a significant southern gap, pulling along many currencies, primarily the euro, which paired up with the dollar the annual minimum and settled in the 12th figure. By the way, the US currency feels very confident, the dollar index is now in the region of 97.20 points. And yet, at the moment, the dynamics of GBP / USD and EUR / USD is not determined by the greenback. The pair falls to the bottom due to British-European political problems.

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The most disturbing news comes from Britain. First, on Friday, British Transport Minister Jo Johnson, brother of the former British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, resigned. He left his post for several months to protest the Prime Minister's "too soft" actions on Brexit's question. Actually, the Minister of Transport quit for the same reason. According to him, the British in the referendum voted for completely different ideas and proposals compared to how Theresa May interpreted them in the negotiations. Therefore, he proposed to hold a repeated plebiscite on this issue in order to prevent "incredible stupidity." So, in his opinion, everything goes to the fact that Brussels will either make Britain "a vassal of the European Union", or plunge it into complete chaos, forcing the country to leave the EU without a deal. Johnson noted that the British hardly voted precisely for such an alternative, therefore, at the moment, it makes sense to ask again their opinion on this issue.

According to political experts, the resignation of Johnson in the aspect of recent events can lead to quite serious consequences. In particular, according to the British press, four more ministers may follow Johnson's example, while tomorrow, November 13, there should be a Cabinet meeting, at which May will try to agree on a common bargaining position (most likely, it will not happen). The situation is further complicated by the fact that Brussels has previously rejected the proposals of the prime minister regarding the Irish border. Although this information is in the nature of rumors, it was published by a rather influential British publication. Therefore, traders took it quite seriously.

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So, according to sources, May offered to create an independent control mechanism that would solve the Irish border issue. However, Brussels noted that European regulations do not provide for the creation of an additional body for control and settlement of disputes, especially since this function is performed by the European Court. According to the newspaper, many British politicians did not appreciate this idea. In particular, we are talking about the supporters of the "hard" Brexit among conservatives and members of the Democratic Unionist Party.

In other words, the key issue of the "divorce process" again remained in limbo, although less and less time remains. By the end of November, the parties must reach at least a framework agreement in order to agree on all the details by December and hold a decisive summit, after which Britain and the EU countries should agree on the deal at the legislative level. All this must be done before the end of March next year. Apparently, in the near future, the parties will again discuss the issue of extending the transition period. Let me remind you that in October, Brussels suggested that London roll over its current relationship for another 21 months after March 2019. It is noteworthy that Theresa May did not reject this idea, apparently, anticipating a likely stalemate in the negotiation process.

Thus, cautious optimism about the prospects for Brexit was replaced by habitual pessimism. Last week, there were rumors that the May government would soon agree on a draft agreement to give green light to the November EU summit. But Johnson's resignation, the DUP's obstinacy and the position of Brussels again mixed up all the cards, increasing the risk of "tough" Brexit. If today or tomorrow, there will be further resignations of ministers, the pressure on the pound may increase in many ways. Together with the dollar, it may return to annual minimums.

Here, it is worth noting that, in the question of Brexit, the "weather" is very changeable. We can recall more than a dozen situations in the past two years when the pessimistic moods of traders have drastically changed to the opposite. Again, the published information that the EU rejected the proposals of May is unverified. If in the near future, reassuring signals will come to the market, the pound will easily make up for lost positions.

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Now, a few words about technology. Technically, the price is located under the "Parade of Lines" signal of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator and between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator. This indicates the strength of the downward direction. The support level is the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which coincides with the minimum of the year, 1.2695. The resistance level is the lower limit of the Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator and the price is 1.2980.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 12, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On October 10, Recent bearish decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420 where temporary bullish pressure was pushing the EUR/USD pair above 1.1520. Hence, a descending High was established around 1.1600.

Recently, temporary bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.1300. Hence, another bullish pullback was executed towards 1.1499 (the upper limit of the supply zone) where another descending high was established.

Currently, As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should continue trading below the price level of 1.1400. Initial bearish targets are located around 1.1275 and 1.1100.

Bearish persistence below 1.1275 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline towards 1.1100.

However, failure to fixate below 1.1275 would enhance the bullish side of the market towards 1.1400 again. Thus, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within a narrow price range (1.1275-1.1400).

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 12. News background puts pressure on the pound sterling again

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Wave counting analysis:

During the November 9 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair lost about 90 basis points, and tonight, given the opening gap, another 100 basis points lost. This is the market reaction to the rejection by Brussels of the next May proposal for Brexit. The current wave counting involves the construction of a 3-wave upward structure and the resumption of the increase after the completion of the proposed wave b. However, given the increased probability of failure of all negotiations on the conditions of Brexit, the wave pattern can be transformed into a descending one.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3124 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

1,3256 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2638 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD remains in the process of building an upward set of waves. The construction of wave b is in progress, so I do not recommend buying a pair before the completion of this wave. There is also a high probability that the pair will complicate the downward trend, which may contribute to the news background. An unsuccessful attempt to break the mark of 1.2828 may lead to a departure of quotes from the lows reached.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 12. All factors are not in favor of the euro again

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Friday, the EUR / USD currency pair fell by 30 basis points, and today at night, it broke through the minimum of the expected wave 3. Thus, evidence was obtained that the pair proceeded to the construction of the expected wave 5 of the downward trend segment with targets located near the Fibonacci levels of 127.2% and 161.8%. Wave 5, in turn, can take a rather long form, and an unsuccessful attempt to break through one of the target marks can lead to the construction of an internal wave in its composition.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1248 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

1.1179 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1499 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair completed the construction of a 3-wave upward structure in wave 4. Thus, I now expect the pair to continue to decline with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.1248 and 1.1179, which corresponds to 127.2% and 161.8% of Fibonacci. Therefore, now I recommend selling the pair, especially since the news background again supports the US currency.

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The dollar goes into a massive offensive

The dollar strengthened noticeably at the opening of trading on Monday, playing at once several positive signals formed last week. One of them is the positive tone of the accompanying statement to the Fed meeting on November 8, from which the regulator's intention clearly is to raise the rate at the meeting on December 18-19. Additionally, the dollar is supported by problems in the EU, which led to the fall of the pound and the euro.

On November 15, the next write-off of the Fed's balance within SOMA is expected, the balance will lose 17.4 billion, and, as practice shows, usually on the day of the write-off, the dollar strengthens across the entire spectrum of the market, especially against commodity currencies.

At the same time, due to a number of factors, there are concerns that the current strengthening may be the last for the dollar, after which a reversal will occur. The reasons for this scenario are that the Democrats managed to take control of the House of Representatives, which makes it virtually impossible to further develop the reforms. Democrats may agree with Trump's new initiatives, but in return, they will set demands that Republicans may find unfeasible, questions about immigration, health care, or a government debt ceiling.

Until March 1, 2019, the Treasury cannot issue new obligations, but at the end of the year, it will have an account with the Fed in the amount of approximately $ 410 billion. Until March 1, this balance is likely to decrease by no less than 200 billion, which will mean cash flow money in the banking system.

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This is one of the main long-term factors that can lead to an increase in the dollar supply even against the background of the Fed's balance reduction and a decrease in its quotations. The upcoming debates in the Congress on the budget and the national debt ceiling will contribute to the reversal of the dollar index in the coming months.

On Monday in the US is a day off, the banks are closed, so the overall dynamics will be determined primarily by news from the EU, which is quite a lot on Monday morning.

Eurozone

The Italian crisis is gradually gaining momentum. The European Commission has published its own forecast of the development of the budget crisis, according to which the Italian budget deficit in 2019 will be 2.9%, and in 2010 it will increase to 3.1%, which exceeds the maximum permissible level for the eurozone countries.

Until November 13, the Italian government should present a new draft budget, the chances that the requirements of European regulators will be taken into account are extremely small. The consequences could lead to sanctions against Italy and an increase in centrifugal sentiment in Europe. The crisis is putting pressure on the euro since a decision on Italy must be made this week.

The currency pair EUR / USD goes below the support level of 1.13, which led to a technically strong signal to increase sales. In the coming hours, testing 1.1250 is likely, a possible return to 1.13 will be used to increase the pressure of bears, there is practically no reason to return above this level.

Great Britain

The European Union rejected Thereza May's proposal to create a mechanism capable of helping overcome differences on the border with Northern Ireland and resolve the issue of customs disputes. The announcement of the failure of the initiative contributed to a sharp decline in GBP / USD on Monday morning, because it casts doubt on an assessment made earlier by May about reaching 95% of the agreements in the negotiations.

This week for May may be the last, when it is still possible to save the negotiations and make a deal on Brexit. In the case of failure, May risks losing her post, and the pound will continue to decline, as big business will increase the pace of exodus from British jurisdiction.

Good macroeconomic data can keep the pound falling, the next publication will take place on Wednesday, investors are waiting for a positive report on the state of the labor market.

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Prior to Wednesday, GBP / USD is quite capable of testing the support of 1.2745 for strength and moving down to 1.2695, since the failure in the negotiations on Brexit can erase any positive. The situation for the bulls is complicated by the growth of positive expectations for the dollar, which support it across the entire spectrum of the market.

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Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD on November 12th. The pound again falls into the abyss

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair continues to fall in the direction of the correctional level of 23.6% - 1.2837. The fall is very strong and almost non-stop. Overlapping divergences on November 12th are not observed in any indicator. Reversing the quotations from the Fibo level of 23.6% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.2925. Fixing quotes below the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 0.0% - 1.2697.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and October 30, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the quotes completed closing below the correction level of 50.0% - 1.2935. As a result, the process of falling off the pair continues in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2878. Rebound of the pair from the correction level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 50.0%. Fixing quotations under the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances for the continuation of the fall in the direction of the correctional level 76.4% - 1.2809.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair with a target of 1.2935 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 61.8% if the pair bounces off the 1.2878 level (hourly chart).

The currency pair GBP / USD can be sold with targets of 1.2878 and 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order above the 61.8% level, as the pair closed below the correction level of 1.2935 (hourly chart).

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 12. Bears continue their attack

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The support in the area of 1.2840, which I paid attention to in my morning review, managed to keep the pound from a new bulls fall. While trading is conducted above this level, buyers in the second half of the day will try to return to resistance 1.2895, whence the upward correction may lead to an update of the maximum of 1.2954, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a repeated decline in the support area of 1.2838, it is better to abandon buying the pound before updating the next minimum in the area of 1.2767.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

An upward correction may be limited by the resistance level of 1.2895, from which I recommend to look at short positions provided that a false breakdown is formed there. A repeated decline in the area of support at 1.2838 in the second half of the day may also lead to the formation of another selling wave of the British pound with access to minimums in the area of 1.2767, where I recommend taking profits. In case of growth above 1.2895, it is possible to open short positions to rebound from a weekly maximum around 1.2954.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted under the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates a further fall in the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction of the pound, the average border of the Bollinger Bands indicator located at 1.2925 will act as resistance. From there, I recommend selling the GBP/USD pair immediately to rebound.

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR/USD pair: plan for the US session on November 12. The euro may continue to fall

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears failed the monthly support level of 1.1301, which led to the demolition of stop orders and the rapid movement of the euro down to the area of 1.1251, which I recommended to pay attention to in my morning forecast. As long as trading is conducted above this level, we can count on an upward correction in the resistance area of 1.1287, where speculative buyers will leave again the market, which will limit the upward potential. In case of further EUR/USD decline following the trend under the level of 1.1251 in the second half of the day, long positions can be returned to the rebound from the lows of 1.1215 and 1.1180.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears have coped with the task of breaking through support for 1.1301 and updated at least 1.1251. A breakdown of this area will lead to a larger sale of EUR / USD with access to the level of 1.1215 and 1.1180, where I recommend taking profits. However, it must be remembered that the afternoon market volatility can be quite low due to Veterans Day in the United States. In the case of an upward correction, it is possible to open short positions when a false breakdown is formed around 1.1287 or for a rebound from 1.1326.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-day average, indicating a further decline in the euro.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction of the euro, the average border of the Bollinger Bands indicator located in the 1.1305 area will act as resistance. From there, I recommend to sell immediately to the rebound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Control zones of GBP/USD pair 12.11.18

At the end of last week, there was a violation of the upward impulse. All growth can be considered complete and the priority direction of work is again falling. Today there is a movement with a high probability of consolidation below the weekly control zone.

Today's fall continues the downward impulse movement, which completely changes the situation. The ascending medium-term model is complete and any growth of the pair should be taken as a correction and look for favorable prices for the sale of the instrument. Today's close below the weekly CP of 1.2910-1.2883 will allow speaking about the high probability of a return to the October minimum. Sales from current grades are no longer profitable, hence, a correctional growth is needed, from which it will be possible to enter a short position.

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Is it important to understand that the price gap formed with today's discovery? It can be ignored with a further decline. Thus, the level of sales of the instrument must be adjusted after changes in the local minimum of the week.

For the formation of a reversal pattern, it will be necessary to absorb the current fall, which is more than the daily average. Therefore, the probability of a reversal is less than 30%, which makes purchases unprofitable. Considering long trades does not make sense as long as the pair is trading below a control zone of 1.2971-1.2958. At the moment, sales are already unprofitable, as the pair has gone through the day and increases the likelihood of a corrective movement.

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The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for November 12, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite impressive amid the recent bearish pressure after a retracement towards 130.50 area with a daily close. EUR is struggling to sustain momentum against JPY due to downbeat economic reports. The pair is expected to carry on with a downward movement in the coming days.

EUR has been weighed down by Italy's trade deficit issue which undermined the overall eurozone's economy. Italy has been trying to assure the EU authorities that the deficit is not harmful to the eurozone's economy as the government has proposed a budget draft for 2019, but the European Commission is still not convinced with the solutions, suggested by Italy's government to tackle the problem. As long as this issue remains unsolved, EUR may lose favor among investors. Today Italian Industrial Production report was published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 1.7% which was expected to decrease more to -0.5%. Though the result was better than expected, it did not quite help the currency to sustain the market momentum. Ahead of several macroeconomic reports and ECB President Draghi's speech on Friday, EUR is expected to be trade with higher volatility.

On the JPY side, despite a series of lackluster economic reports, JPY gained momentum over EUR that indicates ongoing weakness of EUR. Today Japan's PPI report was published with a decrease to 2.9% from the previous value of 3.0% while performing slightly better than expectation of 2.8% and Prelim Machinery Tools Orders decreased to -1.1% from the previous value of 2.9%. Ahead of macroeconomic reports like Prelim GDP and Tertiary Industry Activity, downbeat forecasts may push JPY down.

Meanwhile, EUR is struggling for gains. Japan's downbeat reports may cause higher volatility in the coming days. On the other hand, any positive report from Japan may lead to impulsive bearish swings. ECB President Draghi's speech on Friday is another market-moving event, so that the pair may go through correction. In case Japan presents better-than-expected reports, this could lead to further downward momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the support area between 127.60-128.50 area from where there are certain chances that the price could climb higher towards 129.50-130.00. As the current momentum is quite impulsive with the bearish pressure, a break below 127.60 area is required for further bearish momentum in this pair with a target towards the support area of 125.50 in the coming days. As the price remains above 127.60-128.50 area, there are chances that the price could rebound. Otherwise, the bearish pressure will continue.

SUPPORT: 125.50, 127.60

RESISTANCE: 128.50, 129.50, 130.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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Pound hit the storm

Since the time of the referendum on the membership of Britain in the EU, investors had to get used to the fact that the pound periodically throws it into heat or cold, although it was difficult to believe in it as often as in the fall! Even such "bears" from mid-2016, the portfolio manager of Allianz Global Investors manages € 524 billion ran into the camp of "bulls", after the hawkish rhetoric of Mark Carney and rumors about a deal between London and Brussels. And here you are, sterling collapsed to the founding of the 28th figure against the US dollar amid market uncertainty in the approval of the draft agreement by the British government and parliament.

The "bulls" on GBP/USD pair were not particularly impressed by the expansion of the British pound in a foggy Albion by 0.6% q/q in the third quarter, which is the best trend since the end of 2016. Firstly, after a series of positive monthly data, investors were so optimistic. Secondly, they were embarrassed by the failure of a business investment, which may signal a loss of the economy in the coming quarters. Thirdly, temporary factors have played in favor of Britain: the World Cup, the royal family's wedding and the good weather. Taking into account the dynamics of business activity, it can be assumed that pessimists are right somewhere, casting a shadow of doubt on the likelihood of the Bank of England raising the repo rate not only in May but also in December 2019 market, which is what the bulls are counting on for the pound.

Dynamics of British GDP

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The main pressure on the sterling was due to the political news. The Northern Ireland Party protested the draft agreement with the EU, primarily due to border issues. Transport Minister, Joe Johnson, resigned from his post, indicating a split in the government, and his brother, Boris, called for the Cabinet of Ministers to revolt. The Conservative Party spoke of political deception, referring to Theresa May and the EU's formal deal. He will probably be blocked by Parliament. As a result, investors catch any news about the timing of the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, which will discuss Brexit issues. This factor seems to be a more significant driver of exchange rate formation than a rich economic calendar.

If you are in the UK, you can't get it. Now the situation is restless. Even though it is the case for the pair, it has been able to show greater sensitivity than the macroeconomic statistics of Albion Both bring uncertainty to the Old World, which adversely affects European currencies. At the same time, it is not difficult to understand the EU. If it allows any kind of indulgence in Italy or Britain, other countries may want to go their way.

Technically, the "bears" should take the level of 1.285 by storm and gain a foothold below it, and then test the support at 1.2655-1.269 to continue the GBP/USD southern campaign in the direction of the target by 161.8% using the AB = CD pattern.

GBP / USD daily graph

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European Union predicted decay

Experts do not exclude that the Euro bloc can repeat the fate of those empires that collapsed after the end of the First World War, recalling that in 1918 a number of European powers agreed to end the global conflict. As a result, many independent states appeared in Europe. After a century, the future of the European continent was again in question, as was its integrity.

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According to historians and economists, the Italian nationalists and representatives of the north-eastern part of Poland began to doubt the necessity of the euro bloc. Earlier, the UK announced its withdrawal from the European Union, and now this issue is almost resolved. A supporter of the integration of European countries is the French leader Emmanuel Macron. The politician believes that the strength of Europe is in unification, and accuses other countries of short-sightedness. He believes that the collapse of the Euro block endangers the existence of all European states. He is supported by the managing director of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, who made an appeal to the leaders of the EU countries. She considers it necessary to take measures aimed at preventing the mass withdrawal of countries from the EU.

According to the ex-foreign minister of the Czech Republic, Karel Schwarzenberg, such a fairly young structure, like the European Union, can crumble if it is not modernized. "If European countries cannot unite and ensure that all reforms are implemented, they will collapse," the politician said. Experts call the Euroblock the latest version of a large continental association of languages and cultures and Schwarzenberg supports this view.

Analysts point out that it is very difficult to find a balance between an attempt to transfer power into the hands of national parliaments and the desire to achieve deep integration in relation to currencies and EU borders. Many countries resist further interaction. Only France and Germany are trying to strengthen the Euroblock and keep it afloat, experts say.

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EUR and GBP: Pound and Euro will continue to lose ground

The US dollar continues to strengthen its position against the euro and the pound. A breakthrough of the important support level located in the region of the minimum of last month may lead to the formation of a new and stronger downward trend in the EUR/USD pair trading instrument.

The data that came out on Friday afternoon inspired investors and traders.

Fundamental Statistics

Thus, the producer price index in the United States in October of this year has grown very much, according to a report by the US Department of Labor. This suggests that the acceleration of inflation will affect the plans of the Federal Reserve System, which will continue to raise interest rates.

According to the data, the final demand of the PPI index, the so-called indicator of producer prices of goods and services, rose immediately by 0.6% in October of this year compared with September. As for the baseline, excluding prices for food and energy, the index increased by 0.5% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected a rise in producer prices by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.

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Data on US inventories in wholesale supported the dollar. Growth stocks will positively affect the 3rd quarter of this year.

According to the Ministry of Commerce of the country, inventories in the US wholesale trade increased by 0.4% in September 2018 compared with August, while economists had forecast growth of 0.3%. Sales in the United States wholesale trade increased by 7.8% in September over the same period last year.

The slight decline in US household confidence in the country's economic outlook did not have a significant impact on the US dollar on Friday afternoon. According to preliminary data from the University of Michigan, the consumer sentiment index fell to 98.3 points in November of this year from 98.6 points in October. Economists had expected the figure to reach the level of 97.0 points. Despite a slight decrease in the index, it is worth noting that consumers continue to have a positive attitude towards the economy and assess its future growth prospects in a good way.

On Friday, several speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve System took place. For example, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, said that strong economic growth is closely linked to the situation on the labor market. However, during the presentation, the representative of the Fed did not comment on the prospects for the monetary policy of the Central Bank.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the eurobucks have only one hope for the support level of 1.1300, which is the low of last month. The breakthrough of this range opens up real prospects for a further reduction of the trading instrument in the area of 1.1250 and 1.1180.

Despite good data on the UK economy as it grew slightly in the 3rd quarter of this year, the British pound fell against the US dollar. Quite likely, Brexit once again puts pressure on investors without reaching an agreement.

According to the report, she received a total of 1.5%. These data are fully consistent with the economists. A good increase in consumer spending and foreign trade supported the economy but the growth of investment companies in comparison with the previous quarter has declined.

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As I noted above, the main problem for the pound remains the risk of the UK leaving the European Union in March 2019 without concluding an agreement with the EU on the conditions of a "divorce".

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for November 12, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive amid the bearish bias recently. The price is holding below 1.1300 support area with a daily close. While EUR has been weighed down by political and economic issues, USD gained momentum on the back of upbeat economic data.

Recently EUR has been under pressure from Italy's budget deficit crisis which hurt the overall eurozone's economy badly.The eurozone is currently trying to recover it. Italy has been trying to assure the EU authorities that the budget deficit is not harmful to the economy as they Italy's government has created the draft for 2019, but the European Commission is still not convinced with the solutions offered by Italy. As long as this issue remains unsolved, the euro is losing favor with investors. Today Italian Industrial Production report was published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 1.7% which was expected to decrease more to -0.5%. Though the result was better than expected, it did not quite help the currency to sustain EUR momentum. Ahead of several macroeconomic reports and ECB President Draghi's speech on Friday, EUR is expected to trade with higher volatility.

On the other hand, USD has been propped up with positive economic results, including PPI and Unemployment Claims. As a result, USD asserted its strength versus EUR. Today there are no reports from the US in the economic calendar as the US trading floors are closed for the bank holiday, Veterans Day. Later this week, the US is due to present a series of macroeconomic reports which are expected to encourage further gains for the US currency. This week Fed Chair Powell is going to sideliver a speech which might also include some hints on upcoming interest rate decisions. Besides, Core CPI is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%. Retail Sales report is expected to increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.1%.

Meanwhile, USD is currently quite impulsive with the gains. USD is likely to extend a further rally in the coming days amid optimistic expectation of the upcoming economic reports this week. Though EUR is struggling to gain momentum, any negative report from the US this week may lead to corrections and increase in volatility.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive amid the bearish pressure which did lead the price below 1.1300 area which is currently showing certain weakness in the process. Though the bias is still quite bearish, having certain economic events and reports yet to be published, while having Dynamic Level of 20 EMA residing quite away from the current price area, certain retracement may occur towards 1.1430-1.1500 area before the price continues with the bearish trend. On the other hand, if the price manages to remain below 1.1300 area with a strong bearish pressure, the price is expected to continue pushing lower without any deeper retracement above 1.1300 in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1500 area, the price is expected to be bearish with a target towards 1.1150-1.1200 area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 1.1150, 1.1200

RESISTANCE: 1.1300, 1.1430, 1.1500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Bitcoin analysis for November 12, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found potential double bottom formation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The key resistance is set at the price of $6.339. If you see a valid breakout of the resistance, watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $6.445.

Support/Resistance

$6.339 – Intraday resistance

$6.233– Intraday support

$6.445– Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for November 12, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,203.50. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found a breakout of the key short-term support at the price of $1,211.50, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found an intraday bearish flag after the breakout of the support, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,187.20.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 12, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.2840. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found that strong downward momentum, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a bearish reading on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2700.

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Trading plan for 12/11/2018

On Monday, the 12th of November, the event calendar is light in important data releases as Canada and the US are on Bank holiday. In the following days, the American part of the trading session will be the most interesting in terms of business sentiment in the face of a divided Congress, the topic of trade wars and recent turmoil in the stock market. There will be no surprises if the NY Empire State and Philly Fed indices go down, the question is, how much? On the positive side, the sentiment among consumers remains strong, which should be reflected in the higher dynamics of retail sales (on Thursday). The rise in gasoline prices and recovery of the weakness of some components of core inflation should raise the CPI annual index to 2.5%. With strong USD stance, disappointments in data will have more impact than positive surprises.

After the last weaker readings of mood indicators in business it is more likely that the ZEW index (on Tuesday) will continue losing. The preliminary estimate of GDP from Germany (on Wednesday) is likely to produce a negative reading based on the one-off effect of regulatory burdens in the automotive sector, but it certainly will not help in the discussion about the scale of the slowdown in the euro area. EUR / USD ceased to be guided by foundations from the Eurozone and the economists do not expect a significant impact of the data on the exchange rate, but please beware of a breakthrough in the dispute over the Italian budget and its impact on the market volatility.

The calendar from Great Britain includes a report from the labor market (on Tuesday), CPI (on Wednesday) and retail sales (on Thursday). Employment growth has slowed down in recent months, so acceleration would be a pleasant surprise. Higher wage dynamics will be a good prognosis for inflation outlook, which in October was to remain at 2.4% y / y. Data on sales will be a test of consumer sentiment in the face of uncertainty around Brexit negotiations. The policy will remain the main driver of GBP volatility, where more and more signals in recent days indicate a germinating agreement.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe at the beginning of the trading week. The market has broken below the technical support at the level of 1.1301 and made a local low at the level of 1.1239. This low is very close to the old channel upper boundary and it looks like this old channel test from the upside after the breakout. If there is no bounce soon from this level, the bears will keep pushing the prices lower and the weak and negative momentum is indicating there are still in control over the market. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1118.

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Trading Plan 12/11/2018

Trading Plan 12/11/2018

Overall picture: a new round of dollar growth.

On Monday morning, the euro and the pound showed a fall against the dollar.

Experts believe that the reason is due to the new problems that arose around the EU agreement - Britain on Brexit - maybe, the experts are right.

It is possible that the reason for the growth of the dollar is due to the market assessment of the Fed's decision on interest rates: the market believes that the Fed is ready to raise the dollar rate beyond.

The fact is that the EUR / USD rate has broken down very confidently into 1.1300; however, it is necessary to evaluate the breakdown at the close of the day.

Pound: Sales from 1.2690 - or from rebounds to the top.

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Global macro overview for 12/11/2018

The GDP of the United Kingdom in the third quarter increased by 0.6%, drawing the annual dynamics to 1.5% y / y. A slight disappointment was the dynamics for September alone when the growth was zero against the forecast of 0.1%. However, the production was positive, which in September rose by 0.2% m / m, two times stronger than expected. The trade deficit unexpectedly shrank: up to GBP 9.7 billion from GBP 11.7 billion. Together, the data has a slightly positive color, though without any long-lasting positive effect.

The GBP lost 0.25% and fell to the level of 1,2941 in the face of the increasingly tense situation in the British government. The Prime Minister Theresa May actions are growing concerns about whether she will be able to develop a mutually acceptable UK divorce plan with the EU. Less than five months ahead of Brexit planned for March 29, negotiations on the land border support plan between Northern Ireland, which is ruled by Great Britain and Ireland, are again staying in place. At the end of the EU and UK will come to agree. Both sides want to reach an agreement, but the only risk is whether May will continue to be prime minister.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has gapped down on Monday and made a local low at the level of 1.2852 which is a technical support located just below the 61% Fibo at 1.2878. The nearest technical resistance is located where the gap down is, that means between the levels of 1.2948 - 1.2958, but it does not look like the bulls are strong enough to bounce up yet: the momentum is weak, negative and points south and the market conditions are not yet oversold. In a case of a further breakout lower, the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2828 and 1.2798.

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Global macro overview for 12/11/2018

The Fed confirmed its plan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and then two more levels by mid-2019 due to the economic recovery and rising wage pressure. The USD also benefited from the wider departure of investors from more risky assets due to tensions in trade between the US and China, the economic slowdown in China, uncertainty and a dispute between Rome and the European Union regarding Italy's plan for large budget expenditures and a wide fiscal deficit.

The dollar index was stable throughout the previous week, reflecting on the mid-term (US) election results. Looking ahead, the movement will be driven by developments around the Italian budget and Brexit policy. Moreover, USD gained 0.1% in relation to the Japanese yen (USD / JPY), which on Monday was trading at 113.98, or nearly 6-week high at 114.08. Investors prefer USD to JPY due to divergent monetary policy of FED and Bank of Japan (BoJ). While the Fed is on track to raise interest rates, it is expected that the BoJ will maintain its monetary policy at a very low level in the face of slow growth and inflation. The growing difference in interest rates between US and Japanese bonds made the dollar a more attractive choice than the yen, which is often used as the currency for financing conditional transactions.

Let's now take a look at the DXY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The dollar index in relation to other major currencies increased by 0.1% on Monday to 97.02, or slightly above the 16-month-old October high. The local high was made at the level of 97.58 and momentum is still strong and positive, so the next target is seen at the level of 97.80. DXY in effect strengthens four weeks in a row, gaining 0.4 percent last week.

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Bitcoin analysis for 12/11/2018

During a panel discussion at the Web Summit conference, venture capital investor Tim Draper said he maintains his forecast that Bitcoin's price will reach $ 250,000 by 2022. He announced his forecast for the first time in April this year: "Believe me, it will happen - they will think you are crazy, but believe it, it happens, it will be amazing! "- he said then.

Asked at a recent Web Summit conference, do you still think that the price of Bitcoin will experience a 40-fold increase in four years and reach $ 250,000, Draper said:

"Yes. We're talking [...] about a five percent market share to get $ 250,000. It seems like a drop in the sea and all we have to do is make Bitcoin be used to buy Starbucks coffee. And suddenly the world opens and then they say: "I have a choice ahead of me. Do I want to have a currency that I can take from home to country [...] or do I want one that keeps me in one country or one geographical area and can not use it anywhere else? "

Draper also questioned the need for currency currencies or "political currencies", stating: "why do we trust currencies that are determined by some strange, one or other political party?" According to Draper's opinion, banks spend money whenever they feel like it for any reason, and a global and open currency would take control of the money banks and pass it on to ordinary people.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market broke below the golden trend line and made a new local low at the level of $6,232 and then bounced towards the level of $6,350, just above the weekly pivot at the level of $6,323. The current range is between those two levels: $6,232 for support and $6,350 for the resistance. The market conditions are now oversold, so a corrective pull-back to the upside might develop any time now. The larget time frame trend remains bearish.

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The lack of a Brexit deal pushes the pound into the abyss

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The pound sterling fell on Friday, as investors began to doubt the recent optimism about the upcoming Brexit deal.

Last week, the pound was trading at $ 1.3176, which was a three-week high after Britain seemed to be close to concluding an agreement on secession from the European Union.

Before an agreement is reached, there is still a lot of compromises to avoid the hard border separating Northern Ireland (British province) from Ireland (EU member state). Last Friday, it became clear that the path would not be easy, there are still many problems, and the pound lost more than 0.5% against the dollar. It is likely that the pound will roll down against the background of the lack of prospects for a deal between London and Brussels to continue this week, which will lead to the closure of short positions on the pound.

As for the Bank of England, key rate and its prospects, analysts say that Brexit overhang will significantly limit the growth prospects for the British key rate. Note that the increase in the base rate of the Bank of England would help the pound to grow against all major currencies. According to analysts, the growth rates until May 2019 looked "very unlikely."

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EUR / USD. November 12th Trading system "Regression Channels". Euro continues to fall due to Brexit

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

SCI: -151.2247

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, November 12 continues the downward movement as if nothing had happened. After the technical correction was completed near Murray's "4/8" level, the drop in quotes does not stop for a minute. It is now even difficult to say whether the situation with the Brexit or the budget crisis in Italy continues to influence the trading strategy of traders or the US dollar is already bought by inertia.

From a technical point of view, everything is simple: all indicators are pointing down, Heiken Ashi paints the bars in blue. All conditions for sell orders there. Heiken Ashi's turn up - a round of correction. From a fundamental point of view, no important macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday either in the United States or in the European Union. However, there is every reason to assume that this will not confuse traders at all. For example, at the Asian trading session, we observed a rather strong drop in the pair. In the current conditions, the only real reason for the strengthening of the US currency, from our point of view, can be called Brexit. Just a few hours ago, it became known that Brussels rejected Theresa May's proposal that the UK should remain in the customs union after Brexit. However, this proposal was not accepted and May herself later canceled an emergency meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers at which the vote for the Brexit bill. It looks like a very bad sign.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1,1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues its downward movement and has completed the level of 1,1292. In case of overcoming this target, the target will be the level of 1.1230. Before turning Heiken Ashi upstairs, you can keep your shorts open.

Buy positions are recommended to open no earlier than fixing the price above the moving average line. However, as we have already seen several times, the positions of the bulls are now extremely weak and there are no fundamental reasons for the rise of the euro.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window .

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Weekly review from 12 to 17 November 2018 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

This week, the price will initially go down with the first target of 1.2934 - the rolling level of 50.0% (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, it is possible to go up with the first goal of 1.3067 - a rolling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- monthly schedule - up.

Conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair according to the weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow for the weekly white candle and the absence of the second upper shadow.

The price will initially go down with the first target of 1.2934 - the rolling level of 50.0% (blue-dashed line). Upon reaching this level, it is possible to go up with the first goal of 1.3067 - a rolling level of 23.6% (yellow-dotted line).

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GBP / USD. November 12th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". New failure in negotiations with Brussels

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -214.4849

The currency pair GBP / USD on Monday, November 12, continues to strengthen the downward movement. It seems that the "good" days for the pound sterling are over. Just two news that came at the disposal of traders at the weekend, are good reasons to continue to sell the British currency. Firstly, despite Theresa May's conclusion that the Brexit agreement is 95% ready, the European Union rejected another Premier's proposal to preserve London's membership in the Customs Union after the country's withdrawal from the EU. Thus, once again there are big doubts that the parties will be able to reach an agreement before November 21. Theresa May has already managed to cancel the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, at which the approval of her plan to leave the EU was to take place. In general, the next failure in the negotiations, and even the case did not come to the Cabinet of Ministers. The Cabinet could well not support the conditions proposed by May. Moreover, the opponents of the "May Plan" abound, as well as the opponents of Brexit itself. On Monday, there are no important macroeconomic reports scheduled in the UK and the States, but, as we see, there is plenty of news coming from the UK.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,2878

S2 - 1,2817

S3 - 1.2756

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2939

R2 - 1.3000

R3 - 1.3062

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues its downward movement. The level of 1.2878 has been reached, and the target for short positions will now be the level of 1.2817. The Heikin Ashi is directed downwards, so at the moment, there are no signs of the beginning of the correction.

Buy orders will become relevant no earlier than fixing the price above the moving average line. Only in this case the tendency of the instrument to change to ascending, but now there are no fundamental grounds for this option.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for November 12th. The level of 1.13 is the key for the euro currency

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair, after the rebound from the correctional level of 61.8% - 1.1497, continues the process of falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1303. The rebound of the pair on November 12 from the correction level of 100.0% will make it possible to expect a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth towards the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.1423. Fixing quotes under the Fibo level of 100.0% will greatly increase the likelihood of the pair falling further in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1162.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair also made a U-turn in favor of the American currency, after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, and a return to the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285. The end of quotations from the correction level of 127.2% will make it possible to count on a reversal in favor of the euro currency and a slight increase in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no ripening divergences today. A close below the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of continuing to fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair bounces the correction level of 1.1303.

New sales of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1162 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0%, if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1303.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for Gold for November 12, 2018

Gold price has broken through all support levels and the bullish scenario for a move towards $1,260 has been canceled. Gold price was very weak and the rejection at $1,240 has cost bulls a lot. Trend is bearish for the short-term again as the sideways range trading has broken to the downside.

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Red rectangle - resistance area

Magenta rectangle- support (broken)

Blue rectangle- next support/target area

Gold price is making new lows. Short-term trend is bearish. Price has broken through the $1,212 support. This implies that any bounce should be seen as a selling opportunity as long as price is below $1,240. As long as we remain below the resistance we should expect Gold price to move towards the blue target area. Short-term resistance levels for Gold are at $1,217 and next at $1,225. Support is at $1,206. So from current levels we could see a bounce in Gold price early this week. If not, then this is another weakness sign.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 12, 2018

EUR/USD is making new lows towards 1.1280 as expected from last week. The rejection at 1.15 and the break below 1.1380 were the important points of last week that showed us that the longer-term bearish trend was intact and that the short-term bounce was over. New lows were expected and no trader should be surprised.

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Green lines - bearish channel

Black dots - medium strength resistance

Red dots - maximum strength resistance

The short-term bounce was short lived. Resistance at 1.15-1.1470 was never broken on a daily basis. Instead the rejection was a bearish sign. Price is now making new 2018 lows and is heading towards 1.10-1.08. Yes we might see a bounce but as long as price is below 1.15 we remain bearish. Short-term resistance is at 1.1380 and next at 1.1420. We might see a back test of the 1.1380-1.1350 area but overall trend remains bearish.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 12, 2018

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A decline from 1.7929 continues to push lower, but now it is extremely extended. We expect wave i/ or a/ to see a low soon for a corrective rally towards at least 1.7212 and more likely closer to the 50% corrective target of a decline from 1.7929 to 1.6769 seen at 1.7349.

In the short term, a break above minor resistance at 1.6884 will indicate that wave i/ or a/ has completed and a correction in wave ii/ or b/ has begun.

R3: 1.7080

R2: 1.6974

R1: 1.6884

Pivot: 1.6832

S1: 1.6769

S2: 1.6710

S3: 1.6646

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR upon a break above minor resistance at 1.6884.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 12, 2018

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Our preferred count shows that the wave B completed with the test of 130.15 and wave C lower to the equality target at 123.66 is developing now. In the short term we expected a minor rebound toward the resistance in the 129.41 - 129.58 area before more downside pressure is applied.

A clear break below support at 128.57 confirms that wave B has completed and wave C lower towards 123.66 is developing.

R3: 130.82

R2: 129.58

R1: 129.41

Pivot: 129.19

S1: 128.84

S2: 128.85

S3: 128.57

Trading recommendations:

We are looking to sell EUR at 129.50 or upon a a break below 128.57.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 12, 2018

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Overview:

Last week, the GBP/USD pair broke resistance, which turned into strong support at 1.2925. Right now, the pair is trading above this level. It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the support (1.2925), which is expected to act as a major support today. Therefore, there is a possibility that the GBP/USD pair will move upwards and the structure does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA, so the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. From this point of view, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3072 followed by 1.3176, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3000 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3000 and 1.3176; so we expect a range of 176 pips. Consequently, buy above the level of 1.3000 with the first target at 1.3072 so as to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3176. Besides, the level of 1.3176 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3000, a further decline to 1.2925 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario, which suggests that the pair will stay below the zone of 1.2843 this week.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

CAD/CHF approaching support, prepare for a bounce

CAD/CHF is approaching its support at 0.7588 (100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 0.7636 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 2.5% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

CAD/CHF is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 0.7588. Set stop loss at 0.7551 and take profit at 0.7636.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com