EUR and CAD: The eurozone economy has overcome a recession. The euro and the Canadian dollar continue to decline against

The data in the first half of the day on the German economy and the eurozone maintained the downward momentum of the euro against a number of world currencies. Berlin managed to avoid a recession at the end of last year, but further upward momentum, which was formed in the 1st quarter of 2019, raises a number of questions. Concerns about the prospects for world trade remain high.

According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics Destatis, the flagship economy of the eurozone in the 1st quarter of this year showed an increase of 0.4% compared with the previous quarter, which fully coincided with economists' forecasts. Most of the support was provided by the growth of private consumption in Germany, as well as by the construction industry.

On an annualized basis, in the 1st quarter of 2019, Germany's economy grew by 0.6%, while economists had expected a 0.7% growth.

As for the future prospects, the problems in world trade that remain due to the conflict between the United States and China, will continue to be a deterrent to economic growth, as German exports continue to face pressure. There is also a fairly high uncertainty around the UK exit from the EU. Against this background, it is not surprising that the overall simple GDP of the eurozone in the 1st quarter of this year was fairly restrained, but the recession was still avoided.

According to the data, the eurozone economy grew in the 1st quarter of this year by 0.4% compared to the 4th quarter of 2018, and by 1.2% per annum. The data completely coincided with economists' forecasts.

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All the problems that affect Germany fully apply to the entire economy of the eurozone.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the movement continues to evolve under a bearish scenario, and the next target of risky assets sellers is the support area of 1.1160, a breakthrough of which will only increase the pressure on the trading instrument and lead to new lows of 1.1130 and 1.1100.

The Canadian dollar ignored data on annual inflation in Canada, which accelerated slightly in April of this year. The increase was due to higher prices for cars and vegetables.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, CPI in April rose by 2.0% compared with the same period of the previous year. Economists also expected the index to grow by 2.0%. Compared with the previous month, the index in April rose by 0.4%, which contributed to the short-term increase in gasoline prices.

As for the basic consumer price index, the figure in April rose by 1.9% after rising by 2%. Let me remind you that the target inflation rate is 2%.

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GBP/USD: plan for the US session on May 15. The pound waited for news on Brexit

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The technical picture has not changed compared with the morning forecast. Buyers of the pound, to stop the downward trend, need a return and consolidation above the level of 1.2930, which they lost yesterday in the afternoon after a small upward correction. Only above the range of 1.2930 can we expect a more substantial demand for the pound, which will lead to an update of the highs of 1.2983 and 1.3037, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of reducing GBP/USD and further, long positions are best to look at the rebound from the low of 1.2877-70.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The lack of news on Brexit and disagreements between the UK parties are increasing the pressure on the pound. The goal of sellers today is to form a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2930, which will be the first signal to open short positions that could easily lead GBP/USD to the area of minimums 1.2870 and 1.2812, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a pound rising above the resistance of 1.2930, short positions can be considered to rebound from a high of 1.2983.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility of the indicator has decreased, which does not give signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the US session on May 15. Data on Germany's GDP and the Eurozone pushed the euro down

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

This morning I talked about the fact that the weak reports on the GDP of the eurozone and Germany would push the euro down, which is what happened. Buyers in the afternoon still need to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1220, which can only happen after US retail sales data. In this scenario, we can expect a new bullish momentum in order to update the highs of 1.1251 and 1.1275, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the pressure on EUR/USD continues further, purchases can be returned after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1188, and it is best to rebound from a minimum of 1.1166.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers did not even have to defend the level of 1.1220, which indicates the absence of real euro buyers. The task for the second half of the day is a correction to the intermediate support area of 1.1188, however, the main purpose of the bears today will be to return and consolidate below this level, which will push EUR/USD down to the minimum area of 1.1166, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of the euro growth scenario, against the background of weak data on the US economy, it is best to open short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1251.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the preservation of the downward correction.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of euro growth in the second half of the day, it will limit the upward movement of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1220.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 15

EUR/USD

On the short-term chart of the euro, the latest wave construction is bearish, from March 20. It has a pronounced flat character, taking the place of correction in a larger wave model. The analysis of the structure shows the formation of the final part (C). It has a distinct zigzag.

Forecast:

In the downward section that began yesterday, there was a counter wave of the smallest scale. At the next sessions, a flat stop or a short-term price increase is expected. Towards the end of the day, the probability of a return to the bearish rate of movement increases. A breakthrough below the support zone is not expected today.

Recommendations:

Open transactions for the sale of the euro in the near future need to either close the counter order or close. Purchases are highly risky, possible only with short-term "scalping". Until the completion of the current wave, the main priority should be given to sales of the pair.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1240 / 1.1270

Support zones:

- 1.1170 / 1.1140

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GBP/USD

The bearish section of May 3 completes a larger downward wave formation. The price has reached the next level of support, passing in a wide potential reversal zone of the senior TF.

Forecast:

On the chart of the smallest TF, an upward reversal structure has formed, which indicates the flat character of the upcoming sessions. Possible short-term price growth. A return to the main movement vector is likely at the end of the day or tomorrow.

Recommendations:

The most reasonable behavior of traders in the pair market today will be abstaining from transactions for the rollback period. Supporters of intra-session trading can make short-term purchases with a reduced lot. A general recommendation would be to look for sell signals at the end of the upcoming price rise.

Resistance zones:

- 1.2960 / 1.2990

Support zones:

- 1.2900 / 1.2870

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Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

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EURUSD: Trump is preparing new duties on the US, and the euro is preparing for a further decline

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump made another series of statements related to trade relations between the US and China. During his speech, Trump drew attention to the fact that the US had only minor disagreements with China, and the parties were very close to the deal. However, at some point, the Chinese authorities tore it down. Trump also said that he was very surprised by the response from China and that now the presidential administration is seriously considering the possibility of imposing additional duties. We are talking about additional fees in the amount of 300 billion US dollars.

In the meantime, markets are responding to the new trade conflict calmly enough, and there is no sharp demand for safe-haven assets. As for the absence of a larger demand for the US dollar, it can be assumed that investors tend to buy bonds, the yield on which has recently continued to decline. The demand for bonds is directly related to expectations of a lower rate by the Federal Reserve System.

Yesterday's data did not provide significant support to the US dollar, as the growth of inflation expectations may slow down in the future.

According to the report, prices for foreign goods imported into the United States showed the lowest growth in April of this year. According to the US Department of Commerce, import prices in April 2019 increased by 0.2% compared with the previous month, while economists had expected prices to rise by 0.6%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, import prices fell by 0.2%.

Retail sales in the US, according to the Redbook, for the first week of May this year increased by 1.3% and 5.4% compared to the same period in 2018. Today, a general report on US retail sales is expected, which can support the US dollar. However, economists forecast an increase of only 0.2% after a 1.6% increase in March.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it is likely that the bearish nature of the market will continue, as the bears made their way below the support of 1.1220 yesterday. Their main goal for today will be to the test the lows of 1.1180 and 1.1140.

The British pound continues to decline after yesterday's report, which showed that the unemployment rate in the UK decreased in the 1st quarter of 2019, but the growth in average earnings slowed down.

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According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March of this year, the unemployment rate in the UK fell to 3.8% from 3.9% from December to February. The average earnings for the same period increased by only 3.3% compared with the same period last year, after rising by 3.4%.

Given the growth of uncertainty with Brexit, which will increasingly have a negative impact on the economy, the pressure on the pound will continue. Only positive results on the agreements reached on Brexit between the two leading parties of the UK will return the demand for the British pound in the short term.

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GBP/USD. May 15. Trading system "Regression Channels". A new date of voting for the "deal" on Brexit

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -154.9833

On Wednesday, May 15, the British pound continues to fall and has already come close to the lows of April. As we have said many times, the way of the pound is now only one – down. There is still no important, and positive news from the UK, so the pound has nowhere to draw inspiration. It would seem that a new date for voting on Brexit has been announced. Laborites and Conservatives, presumably, have come to some agreement, since Theresa May decided to hold the fourth vote. However, we recall that in the last year of such "positive" news was a lot that did not affect the process of adoption of the "deal" on Brexit. Then came the postponement of the date of exit of the country from the EU. Thus, in fact, there was nothing optimistic. Now, if the parliamentarians do accept the Theresa May initiative, it will be really good news. However, Brexit, in any case, will have a negative impact on the UK economy, but that's another story. The most important thing for the Kingdom now is to complete the epic with Brexit. Until it came to the second referendum and the people's refusal to withdraw from the EU.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2909

S2 – 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.2970

R3 – 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD continues its downward movement. Thus, short positions with targets at 1.2909 and 1.2878 are now relevant, before Heiken Ashi's indicator turns up, which will indicate a turn of an upward correction.

Buy-positions are recommended to be considered only after the pair is reversed above the moving average with the first targets at 1.3031 and 1.3062. In this case, the bulls will get a new chance to form an upward trend.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 15, 2019

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $7.944. We see potential for the pullback and downward correction.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that there is momentum up decreasing, which is sign that buying looks risky. BTC is in extended run phase and potential pullback is expected. We found the bearish divergence on the slow Stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of the potential pullback incoming. The ADX is going down indicating potential weakness on BTC.

Upward references:

Swing high – $8.153

Downward:

Swing low – $7.590

Previous high became support - $7.413

Swing low - $6.834

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USD/JPY analysis for May 15, 2019

USD/CAD has been trading upside. The price tes

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ted the level of 1.3492. We are expecting more upside on the USD/CAD.

According to the H4 time-frame, we found that there is the breakout of the bullish flag and the rejection of the 20EMA, which is sign for the potential upside continuation. There is also a new up momentum on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of the potential strength. We placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upside target. We got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.3520. Watch for buying opportunities with the target at 1.3520.

Upward references are set:

Swing high – 1.3504

Fibonacci expansion 61.8% - 1.3520

Downward references are set:

Swing low – 1.3455

Major low – 1.3380

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EUR/USD. May 15. Trading system "Regression Channels". The trade war with China returned the demand for the US dollar

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -38.5563

Well, so far we can say that the first stages of the escalation of the trade war between the US and China have a beneficial effect on the US currency. So it was in the past, with the first turns of the trade conflict. We cannot say that the US currency has grown strongly in recent days, but still, the demand for it has increased, and the weak and unstable upward trend of the pair is broken. Yesterday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry made an official statement. According to him, China does not want a trade war with the States but is ready to fight to the end. Geng Shuang, Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that China is ready to defend its national interests and take the most radical measures. It is unlikely that such a statement by the Chinese side will please Trump. In the near future, we are waiting for a statement from the head of the United States, which is likely to contain new threats of imposing duties and taking other measures if China does not concede in the negotiations and does not sign the trade agreement immediately. Thus, we expect a further escalation of the conflict. Today, the EU is scheduled to publish GDP (preliminary value) for the first quarter of 2019, and in the States, there will be reports on retail sales and industrial production for April. If these reports do not disappoint, the pair may continue to build a new downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1230

R2 – 1.1292

R3 – 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has overcome the moving. Thus, it is now recommended to consider short positions with the targets at 1.1169 and 1.1108, before the reversal of the indicator Heiken Ashi to the top.

It is recommended to consider trading on the pair increase not earlier than fixing the price above the moving average line and the level of 1.1230 with the first target at 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for May 15, 2019

Gold has been trading upwards in pat 12 hours as we expected. The price tested the level of $1.299. We are still expecting upside.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that there is the breakout of the bullish flag and the rejection of the 20EMA, which is sign for the potential upside continuation. There is also a rising momentum on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of the potential strength. Watch for buying opportunities with the target at $1.310.

Upward references are set:

Previous day high - $1.303

Daily swing high - $1.310

Downward references are set:

Swing low - $1.292

Resistance became support - $1.288

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin. France may release its stablecoin

While the Bitcoin exchange rate is actively trying to break the mark of 8000 USD, the Central Bank of France started talking about stablecoin. During his interview, the President of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galo said that he sees the future in stablecoin. He expects that they will be used in transactions related to tokenized securities, goods and services.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

Bitcoin continues to trade in the area of 8000 USD, retaining its upward potential. The next target for buyers will be the breakdown of the maximum of 8160, which will lead to an update of the level of 8450 and 8700, where I recommend fixing the profits. With the downward correction scenario, support will again be provided by the area of 7600, however, you can buy Bitcoin immediately on the rebound in the area of 7200.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

Only the formation of a false breakdown at the new high of 8600 will be the first signal to sell Bitcoin in order to reduce to the lower border of 7600 and update a larger support area of 7200, where I recommend fixing the profits. With further growth along with the trend, it is best to consider selling a rebound from a maximum of 8500.

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Trump and Batman: find the differences (high probability of AUD/USD pair decline and EUR/USD pair recovery)

The mood of investors in world markets has somewhat improved on Tuesday due to new injections of "optimism" by the American president regarding negotiations with Beijing on trade. Trump has long been a newsmaker and conducts financial markets to his advantage.

In recent months, a strong link has been established between Donald Trump's actions as president and the local stock market. If a few months ago, it was the dynamics or rather the collapse of the stock market and the rise of interest of market players in government bonds of the US Treasury that made Trump declare the need for the Fed to reduce interest rates and generally support the growth of stock indexes in every way, but now the opposite is true. By his decision to tighten the US position on trade negotiations with Beijing, the president meant raising customs duties of up to 25% on Chinese imports in the amount of $ 200 billion caused by the collapse of the local stock market, which naturally pulled the world markets along. And here, Trump began to save him, like Batman, with his Twitter entries in every way extolling the trade negotiation process. Moreover, the stock market did not remain in debt, as they say. It "rose up", however, it was not able to manage to compensate for the loss of Monday.

This behavior of investors can be explained by the exercise of caution since it is already clear to everyone that negotiations have reached an impasse and can completely fail. But, oddly enough, the market is trying not to lose heart, hoping that the escalation of the trade war will ultimately force the Fed to lower interest rates to compensate for the impact of increasing customs duties and perhaps even in the near future. The regulator will have to resort to incentive measures, which will be positive for the growth in demand for risky assets and of course, this will put pressure on the US dollar as it was after the 2008 crash.

Such a scenario keeps the dollar from its noticeable growth against competing currencies but at the same time there are still concerns that the US will fall into recession, in which case, the dollar will be in demand on the contrary. In general, the situation of uncertainty, which is already fed up with everything, will continue to generate high volatility in the stock and commodity markets. But it seems that currency markets will continue to stagnate until the situation with the prospect of not only trade relations between Beijing and Washington but also the world economy, which is completely cleared up.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading above the support level of 1.1200, forming the "ascending flag" figure. If this level resists, we should expect a price increase to 1.1270. At the same time, its breakthrough may lead to a promising local price drop to 1.1125.

The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure in the wake of the uncertainty of the outcome of negotiations on trade between the US and China, as well as the publication of weak data on industrial production in China. The preservation of the negative can stimulate further price reduction first to 0.6900 and then to the local minimum of January 2016 at 0.6825.

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergences for May 15. A bullish divergence can help the euro recover

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continues the process of falling, after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, in the direction of the retracement level 100.0% (1.1177). However, on May 15, a new bullish divergence is emerging at the CCI indicator, which allows traders to expect the pair to turn in favor of the EU currency and return to the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241). The end of the pair quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of growth.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the picture does not change. The pair is still trading below the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285) and retains a high chance of resuming a fall in the direction of the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941). Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the euro currency and will allow expecting some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553). There are no emerging divergences on the current chart in any indicator.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1241 if the pair rebounds from the level of 100.0%. The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1177, especially in conjunction with bullish divergence.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177, with a stop loss order above the level of 1.1241, as a bearish divergence was formed, and keep them open until the formation of a bullish divergence.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergences for May 15th. The progressive decline of the pound may end around 1.286

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair has completed the consolidation under the retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969). Thus, the fall of quotations continues on May 15 in the direction of the next Fibo level of 50.0% (1.2867). The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the British pound and some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8%. Fixing the quotes under the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 38.2% (1.2765).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair also continues the process of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.2865). Today, a bullish divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator, which allows us to expect a reversal of the pair in favor of the currency of England and some growth towards the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2939). Reversal of quotes from the retracement level of 100.0% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth. The consolidation of the rate under the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 127.2% (1.2782).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of April 25, 2019, and May 3, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2939 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.2865 (hourly chart), especially in combination with the formation of a bullish divergence.

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2865 and a stop loss order above the level of 76.4%, as the pair has completed consolidation below the retracement level of 1.2939 (hourly chart), and keep them open until the formation of a bullish divergence.

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Control zones of USD/JPY pair on 05/15/19

Work in the current phase of correction involves the search for favorable prices for the sale of the instrument. The 1/2 WCZ of 109.98-109.89 will be the determining resistance. As long as the pair is trading below this zone, the bearish momentum will continue with a probability of 70% and update the May low. This must be used to enter a position or to keep sales already open.

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Within the 1/2 WCZ, there is a significant level and above which, one could observe an accumulation of limit orders last week. The test of this range should be used to search for the "false probe" pattern.

To change the downward impulse to a bullish one, it will be necessary to close today's trading above 109.98. This will lead to a change in the market phase. The goal of growth will be the weekly CZ of 110.94-110.77 and the probability of the movement will increase to 70%. Do not forget that while this model is auxiliary and the probability of its implementation does not exceed 30%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from the important futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for May 15. Theresa May is not giving up. She will try to accept the Brexit agreement for the

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Wave counting analysis:

On May 14, the GBP / USD pair lost another 55 basis points. Yesterday in the UK, reports were issued on unemployment (down to 3.8%) and on changes in average wages (a rise of 3.2%). The unemployment outlook was worse, and the wage was better. Thus, the overall news background was neutral for the pound. Nevertheless, the markets continued to sell the pound, which once again makes us pay attention to Brexit. According to the latest information, the UK will take part in the elections to the European Parliament despite the fact that in the coming months, it wants to leave the EU. Theresa May determined the new date of voting for her Brexit project - June 3. A pound sterling reacts to this by a fall, and a successful attempt to break through the minimum of the wave y will indicate that the pair is ready for a new decline. However, the wave pattern remains extremely ambiguous and confusing.

Purchase goals:

1.3182 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1,3259 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2867 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave picture suggests a continuation of the pair 's decline. Thus, now, I recommend selling the pair with targets located around 1.2867, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci, and you can save if you successfully try to break through the sale. Nevertheless, the wave pattern of the previous weeks is characterized by frequent and deep correctional waves- you should be careful with the MACD reversals.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for May 15. Euro: new entry to update the lows.

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Wave counting analysis:

On Tuesday, May 14, trading ended for EUR / USD by 20 bp lower. The volume of industrial production of the European Union in March decreased by 0.6%, while the sentiment index in the business environment of the ZEW Institute turned out to be completely negative (-1.6). Thus, the news support for the euro currency was absent. The wave pattern again shows the pair's readiness to build a new descending wave, presumably 3, 3, 3. If this is true, then the decline will continue from the current positions with targets located under the 11 figure. Today, I recommend paying attention to reports on changes in the volume of industrial production and retail sales in America. Strong values may force markets to continue buying US currencies. Two unsuccessful attempts to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level also speak in favor of a downward wave.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair is still in the process of building a downward trend. The current wave counting suggests a continuation of the pair's decline with the targets of 1.1097 and 1.1045, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. Thus, now, I recommend selling a pair with these goals and restrictive orders above the 50.0% Fibonacci level.

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AUD / USD: under the yoke of sellers and in anticipation of tomorrow's release

The Australian dollar came under pressure from several fundamental factors of a negative nature. All circumstances including the escalation of tension between the US and China, disappointing data on the growth of Chinese industry, weak wage dynamics in Australia and the overall increase in anti-risk sentiment in the market put strong pressure on the Australian, who paired with the dollar fell below the key support level of 0.7000. Buyers fought long enough for this price outpost. In early May, the price returned more than five times to the area of the 70th figure but recent events have left no chance for the bulls as the pair has consolidated around the 69th figure, which demonstrates a strong downward movement.

However, despite the bearish sentiment on the pair, short positions on AUD/USD pair still look risky, especially now when the price has updated the two-year low (if you do not take into account the impulse decline followed by a rollback December 30 last year). On all higher timeframes, the pair is at its extreme, and only on the monthly chart, there is a "power reserve" up to the 67th figure, where the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands trend indicator is located. In the "modern history" of the pair below the designated level, the price fell only at the height of the 2008 crisis, while over the past 10 years, the Aussie did not stay long below the 70th figure.

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For this reason, sales of AUD/USD now need to be treated with extreme caution. It's not 2008, but the fundamental conditions do not favor the development of a full-scale downward trend, especially from current positions. Moreover, we can consider the possibility of opening long positions with an initial target of 0.7000 in the medium term. In this context, much will depend on the results of tomorrow's releases.

But first, it is necessary to deal with the causes of such a protracted downward movement. Firstly, after the interest rate was reduced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Damocles sword is dominated by the RBA over the AUD/USD pair. Although at its last meeting, the Australian regulator denied the rumors that appeared and even expressed some optimism about the future growth prospects of the national economy. In general, the RBA took a wait-and-see attitude, including the implementation of various options for action, but the regulator did not even mention a reduction in the rate.

In other words, the Central Bank did not focus on a significant slowdown in Australian inflation, leveling investors' concerns about easing monetary policy parameters in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the head of the RBA warned that the regulator will closely monitor the dynamics of the main indicators of the economy and if necessary, respond accordingly. This remark has retained the probability of a rate cut this year, so now the Australian macroeconomic reports have acquired special significance for AUD/USD traders.

That is why the market reacted so keenly to today's release of data on the growth of the labor cost index. The indicator characterizing the change in the level of labor costs came out slightly weaker than forecast. On a monthly basis, it remained at 0.5% while experts expected a positive trend of growth to 0.6%. In annual terms, the index remained at the level of the previous month, showing an increase of up to 2.3%. On the one hand, this result is quite acceptable in the absence of stable growth. The indicator keeps at relatively high levels. On the other hand, traders were concerned about the sluggish dynamics of the indicator in anticipation of the publication of key data on the growth of the Australian labor market.

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According to general forecasts, the April unemployment rate in Australia will remain at the same level of 5%. The increase in the number of employees should also be released at a decent level: +15 thousand. This is less than in March (+25 thousand), but more than in February (+10.7 thousand). In other words, labor market data should support the Australian dollar but here, it is necessary to carefully look at the structure of indicators. The fact is that at the end of last year and the beginning of the current employment growth was largely (if not completely) due to part-time employment. But by contrast, full employment declined, which then showed a negative trend. This factor adversely affects the dynamics of wage growth since full-time positions offer higher wages. If a similar dynamic takes place in April, then even a low unemployment rate will not save the Aussie from selling pressure. However, in the opposite situation, the Australian will receive substantial support.

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In technical terms, the AUD/USD pair is in the framework of the downward movement, as evidenced by the trend indicators on all "older" timeframes (from H4 and higher). The nearest support level is at the base of the 69th figure, namely at the mark of 0.6905 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). The goal of a possible corrective pullback is 0.7000 but if the AUD/USD bulls overcome 0.7030 (the Bollinger Bands average line on the daily chart) and especially 0.7065 (Kijun-Sen line on the same timeframe), then the bearish scenario will lose its relevance.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 15, 2019

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Overview:

Pivot: 0.6605.

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6648. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6648 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. However, the major resistance is seen at the level of 0.6690. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, strong resistance will be found at the level of 0.6690 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6575. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6575, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level 0.6544.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 15, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3457. The pair rose from the level of 1.3457 (the level of 1.3457 coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3505. But it rebounded from the top pf 1.3505 to 1.3477. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3457 followed by 1.3425, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3457. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3505 and 1.3457; for that we expect a range of 48 pips (1.3505 - 1.3457). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3505. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3505, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at the levels of 1.3532 and 1.3560. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3425.

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Trading Plan for EUR / USD pair on 05/15/2019

Main news:

China shows a slowdown in the economy in April. On all fronts are the data on production, retail sales and investment. Against this background, it is especially unpleasant for China given Trump's increase in duties on Chinese goods from May 10 and the threat of new duties from June 1.

The second important news: the German economy returned to growth in the first quarter of 2019, despite the reduced production which was due to the growth of trade, construction, and investment.

Markets are choosing new directions.

EUR / USD pair: Buy from 1.1270; Sell from 1.1130.

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CAD to firm amid weak US retail sales. May 15, 2019

The USD/CAD pair has been trading at the edge of the 1.3500 area for days now. The US dollar is anticipated to give in to CAD in the coming days amid the trade war tensions and mixed economic reports.

Trade tensions continued to affect market sentiment. In response to the US tariffs, China also imposed tariffs on numerous US imports. The US Federal Reserve keeps its interest rates unchanged ignoring President Trump's pressure. According to the Fed's officials, the monetary policy is at the right place, so there is no need for any upward or downward changes. Although there are some rumors about rate cuts this year, yet none of the Fed's officials confirmed or hinted about it in their recent speeches. Therefore, it is actually baseless. Meanwhile, US unemployment is the lowest in nearly 50 years, while inflation remains below the Fed's 2% target.

At the moment, the Fed is engaging in a broad policy review that will show how the regulator delivers jobs and stable prices. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly also warned that the ongoing undershooting the central bank's 2% inflation target could create as many problems as exceeding it. However, she also noted that any policy changes would face a high bar.

Today's US Retail sales report is expected to reflect a significant decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 1.6%, and the Core Retail Sales data is also anticipated to drop to 0.7% from the previous value of 1.2%. Additionally, the US Capacity Utilization Rate is to have a slight decline to 78.7% from the previous value of 78.8%, Business Inventories reading is likely to fall to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.3%, and FOMC Member Quarles is going to speak today about the upcoming monetary policy decision that is not expected to have any major impact.

On the other hand, Canada's CPI report is going to be published today, it is forecast to lower to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.7%, while the Common CPI, the Median CPI, and the Trimmed CPI are anticipated to remain unchanged. The Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Futures were trading around $61.11 per barrel, 0.1% up for the day. As there is an inverse relationship between crude oil and the Canadian dollar, the oil price upsurge should press down the pair.

As for the current scenario, both currencies are affected by the upcoming economic reports. However, CAD has a better market sentiment with a high close in the stock market, as the Central Bank remained hawkish with the recent statement.

Now, let us look at the technical view. Currently, the price is below the 1.3500 area with a daily close. It formed a Bearish Divergence. The pair is expected to move lower towards 1.3350 and later towards the 1.3200 area in the coming days. As far as the price remains below the 1.3500 area, the bearish bias is likely to continue.

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Review of EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 05.15.2019: Glorious days for the dollar

The dollar continued its victorious rally against the single European currency and the pound. Blame for the next defeat, they must be exceptionally themselves. Thus, data on the labor market in the UK has rather showed a complete decline in the morale of personnel. Thus, the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose from 22.6 thousand to 24.7 thousand. despite the drop in the unemployment rate from 3.9% to 3.8%. Such differences are possible due to the fact that the unemployment rate is shown in March and the number of applications for benefits in April. That is, unemployment data for April will almost certainly show growth. But what is more important is that the rate of growth of average wages slowed down from 3.4% to 3.3%. Also, taking into account bonuses and more precisely, remuneration for overtime from 3.5% to 3.2%. In other words, revenue growth is slowing. Her Majesty's subjects themselves are not particularly eager to bend their backs for the benefit of investors. Yes and European industry data showed a complete lack of readiness to provide a single European currency with ammunition, as the pace of decline in industrial production accelerated from -0.3% to -0.6%. It is true that the predicted acceleration of the decline to -0.8%, hence, that the disaster is not so terrible.

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Today, the dollar can continue its victorious march. Particularly in Europe, there is a second estimate of GDP for the first quarter, which may show that the rate of economic growth did not remain the same, but slowed down from 1.2% to 1.1%. In the United States, there are data on retail sales and industrial production and forecasts for which are very good. Although industrial production growth rates may remain unchanged, retail sales should show acceleration from 3.6% to 3.8%. Thus, investors have a few more reasons to buy the dollar.

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Thus, the single European currency is likely to fall to 1.1175.

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Of course, the slowdown of the European economy does not directly affect the pound but indirectly, it will have a negative impact. The increase in consumer activity in the United States is enough. Hence, the pound is likely to fall towards 1.2850.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (May 15)

For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed low volatility of 43 points, but this amplitude was enough to overcome the newly formed cluster. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the previously formed accumulation of 1.1215 / 1.1250 was broken through by price, tightly fixing below the lower limit. The news and news background had statistics on industrial production in Europe, where even greater deterioration came to life, which, in principle, received actual data -0.6%. Returning to the information background, we have yesterday's meeting between Theresa May and opposition leader Jeremy Corbin, where the Prime Minister announced that the agreement with the EU on Brexit's conditions will be put for voting by the House of Commons in early June.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we have the publication of retail sales statistics in the United States, which are expected to show an acceleration in their growth rates from 3.6% to 3.8%. At the same time, we are not missing the second estimate of GDP data for Europe, where they expect a slowdown to 1.2%.

The news may contribute to the further strengthening of the US currency.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a slight stagnation within the value of 1.1200, which can be viewed as a kind of rearrangement of the trading forces. It is likely to assume that in the case of price fixing lower than 1.1200, we will open the way to the value of 1.1180-1.11170, which reflects the earlier accumulation.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector , we see that in the short and intraday perspective, there is a downward interest against the background of the current decline. The medium-term perspective maintains an upward interest, although it is already at the limit.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(May 15, based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 14 points. It is likely to assume that as soon as the current stagnation subsides, volatility will begin to grow.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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The reasons are different but the result remains the same: the euro and the pound are aimed at further reducing.

The US-China trade war remains a major instability factor for world markets. Despite the fact that on Tuesday the trades were mainly held in the green zone, there is no hope for a positive outcome regarding the confrontation. China, by introducing retaliation against unilateral actions by the United States, demonstrates its determination to uphold its interests on the assumption that the fast-growing Chinese market of more than 1 billion people is more capacious than the US, and sacrifice strategic goals in an attempt to maintain access to American markets is short-sighted.

The United States is preparing to impose a new rate of 25% for the rest of China's exports , and the United States Trade Representative, Lighthizer, has already published a corresponding report. The mechanism is launched. Public hearings will begin on June 17th.

Rising risks continue to limit the demand for risky assets. This will later on benefit the gold, the dollar and the Japanese yen.

EURUSD

The indicator of economic sentiment for Germany fell in May by 5.2 p, dropping to negative zone to -2.1 p. The decline in the indicator indicates that financial market experts continue to expect moderate economic growth in Germany over the next 6 months, while further deterioration is likely, given the fact that the trade war between the United States and China has not been taken into account in the survey, which casts doubt on stability German exports.

The similar index in the eurozone also looks weak - the indicator of economic sentiment is -1.6%, the current situation has improved by 6.2 p, but it is still in the negative zone of the -7.0p.

The weak economic outlook for the eurozone is also reflected in Eurostat data. Industrial production fell for the second month in a row. In March, a decrease of 0.3% was reported on an annualized basis, a decrease of 0.6%, for a year and a half. There has been no positive trend.

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Today, preliminary data on the GDP of the eurozone countries will be published, and two representatives of the ECB are expected to speak at once - Kera and Pratt. The activity of officials this week is quite high. On Thursday, there will be 4 statements by Draghi's deputies at once, including the head of the Bundesbank, Weidmann, who reasonably expects to assume the position of head of the ECB after the end of the mandate of Mario Draghi.

On Friday, inflation data will be published , and before the publication of the euro will look uncertain. There are no reasons for resuming a bullish trend, as weak macroeconomic data is combined with increased uncertainty about the trade war and the approach of the start of parliamentary elections, which can change the political configuration in Europe. May 18, Trump must decide on the possibility of introducing tariffs on European cars, which poses a risk in the European economy.

EURUSD tends to 1.1165 / 73 zone, where the issue of increasing downward pressure or returning to current levels will be addressed.

GBPUSD

The unemployment rate in UK fell in January-March to 3.8% versus 3.9% a month earlier, and this is the lowest figure since 1974.

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The employment situation looks confidently stable, but reaching a record level did not help the trading for pound on Tuesday. The reason for this is a noticeable decrease in the average wage, taking into account bonuses from 3.5% to 3.2%, which is a threat to the stability of consumer demand and is capable of questioning inflation forecasts.

Recall that the Bank of England at the beginning of May published a quarterly report on inflation, in which he substantiated his forecast for a rise in prices by 2.1% y / y with the expectation that in April, inflation would increase due to energy carriers and retail trade. Reducing employee incomes can have the opposite effect and calls into question price increases in the near future, and hence the Bank of England rate strategy.

The pound, thus, received a negative impulse, which immediately won back, falling to 1.29. The likelihood that the downward movement will continue, remains high. The next is the support at 1.2864. Fixing below it allows the way to 1.2772.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for May 15, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, technical analysis demonstrates an upward movement. The first upper target of 1.2944 is the pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, technical analysis demonstrates an upward movement. The first upper target of 1.2944 is the pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line).

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EURO to regain momentum over JPY. May 15, 2019

EURJPY has been consolidating and correcting at the edge of 122.50 support area from where certain upward pressure is expected in the coming days.

The European Central Bank's latest economic forecast about temporary slowdown is still valid and its monetary policy stance appears to be appropriate. After the recent release of mixed economic data, the market sentiment has been a little undermined. Today, German Prelim GDP report is going to be published. It is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous figure of 0.0%, while Flash GDP might probably be unchanged at 0.4%. Despite some positive changes in the eurozone, Praet, the ECB's chief economist, thinks that the eurozone needs to make joint efforts to maintain momentum in the coming days. There is no long-term initiative to reverse the economic slowdown yet. "A certain level of public risk sharing is necessary to create confidence in the overall financial system and thereby unlock the potential of private risk-sharing," Praet, the ECB's chief economist, said in a speech in Rome.

Moreover, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday he would consider additional easing without hesitation if consumer prices lost upward momentum. Kuroda, speaking in parliament, said the BOJ was committed to keeping short- and long-term rates low until at least the spring of 2020, adding rates could remain low beyond that period. Today, Japan's M2 Money Stock report was published. It reflected an increase to 2.6% from of 2.4%. The reading was expected to decrease to 2.3%. Prelim Machine Tools Orders report is not published yet. The previous figure was at -28.5%.

At the moment, the euro is likely to inch up on upbeat economic reports. It is highly likely that the euro might gain over the yen. The yen has recently strengthened due to the BOJ dovish slant.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 122.50 support area. The price recently formed bullish divergence along the way which indicates certain bullish momentum. As the price remains above 122.50 support area with a daily close, the chances of bullish momentum is quite high with a target towards 123.50 and later towards 125.00 resistance area in the coming days.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (May 15)

For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 69 points, but this small amplitude was enough to keep the bearish interest. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that, as predicted, the downward interest remained, reaching the first level of 1.2920 and fixing below it. On the other hand, information and news background had statistics about Britain, where at first glance, it seems that things are not so bad. Unemployment in March is declining from 3.9% to 3.8%, but at the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in April is increasing from 22.6K to 24.7. Meanwhile, the indicators on the average wage, including premiums for March from 3.5% to 3.2%, which together gives a negative background for the English currency and the same decline. Returning to the background information, we have the meeting between Theresa May and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn yesterday, where the Prime Minister announced that the agreement with the European Union on Brexit's conditions will be put to a vote by the House of Commons in early June - "regardless of whether you can gain support Laborites or not. " Jeremy Corbyn himself expressed doubt that Theresa May would be able to achieve inter-party agreement. Moreover, a number of conservatives are opposed to it.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have the publication of retail sales statistics in the United States, which are expected to show an acceleration in their growth rates from 3.6% to 3.8%. Thus, this news may contribute to the further strengthening of the US currency.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that there is an active downward interest in the market, although there is currently a slight stagnation. In case of price fixing lower than 1.2900, we will open the way to the second predicted level of 1.2880, which displays the boundaries of the previously formed local minimum on April 25.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest against the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(May 15, based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 13 points. Since stagnation is taking place now, volatility shows an extremely low figure, but as soon as the stagnation subsides, we will see acceleration.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for May 15, 2019

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The EUR/USD pair dropped towards support at 1.1200 levels before finding some relief. It is seen to be trading at 1.1208/10 levels at this point in time and might be looking to rally. Please be aware that the recent drop from 1.1260 is corrective (3 waves), hence yet another high above the 1.1260 mark cannot be ruled out. Looking at the entire structure from 1.1111, the EUR/USD pair seems to be producing an A-B-C correction and right now Wave C could be unfolding as an ending diagonal. If the above projected structure holds, we could see a rally as the last leg of the diagonal structure unfolds. Besides, note that for the above structure to hold, prices should stay above 1.1175 levels and a drop lower would confirm that a meaningful top is in place. It would be safe trading strategy to sell EUR/USD into strength towards 1.1320 levels or allow prices to break 1.1175. Interim resistance is seen at 1.1260 levels while support is at 1.1175 respectively. Also note that a break above 1.1260 levels would trigger buying towards 1.1320 levels but the rally would be temporary.

Trading plan:

Conservative traders remain flat and look to sell towards 1.1280/1.1320 levels. or when 1.1175 support breaks.

Aggressive traders may hold long against 1.1170 targeting 1.1280/1.1320

Good luck!

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for May 15, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the downward movement can continue with the target of 1.1188 - a rolling level of 50% (yellow dashed line). In case of a breakthrough, the further downward movement with the target of 1.1170 is a pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the downward movement can continue with the target of 1.1188 - a rolling level of 50% (yellow dashed line). In case of a breakthrough, the further downward movement with the target of 1.1170 is a pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dashed line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on May 15. Bears are approaching an important support level of 1.2870

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

In order to stop a downward trend, buyers of the pound require a return and consolidation above the level of 1.2930, which they lost yesterday in the afternoon after a slight upward correction, which was formed due to the divergence on the MACD indicator. Only above the 1.2930 range would we be able to expect a more substantial demand for the pound, which will lead to an update of highs of 1.2983 and 1.3037, where I recommend taking profits. In case the GBP/USD drops further, it is best to look at long positions for a rebound from a low of 1.2877-70.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The lack of news on Brexit and disagreements between the UK parties are increasing the pressure on the pound. The goal of sellers today is to form a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2930, which will be the first signal to open short positions that could easily lead GBP/USD to the area of lows of 1.2870 and 1.2812, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound rises above the resistance of 1.2930, short positions can be considered to rebound from a high of 1.2983.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound decreases further, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2889. The resistance is the upper limit in the 1.2935 area.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 15. GDP data may cause another round of selling the euro

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Buyers are now required to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1220, and only good data on eurozone GDP, which should be better than economists' forecasts, will help to do this. Only in such a scenario can we expect a new bullish momentum in order to update highs of 1.1251 and 1.1275, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on EUR/USD continues further, purchases can be returned after forming a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1188 or to rebound from a low of 1.1166.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1220 will be the first signal to open short positions in the euro, which will confirm the upper limit of the new descending channel. This will lead to a correction in the intermediate support area of 1.1188, however, the main purpose of the bears today will be a test of a low of 1.1166, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a good report on eurozone GDP and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1220, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1251 or even higher - around 1.1275.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of market's bearish nature.

Bollinger bands

The euro's growth will be limited to the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1225, while pressure will increase after the breakdown of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1195.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com