Analysis of Gold for September 27, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,282.00. According to the 4H time frame, I found a breakout of previous week low at the price of $1,289.00, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a fake breakout of the downward channel, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downawrd targets are set at the price of $1,272.00 and $1,250.00 (both targets are based on Fibonacci wrok).

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,314.00

R2: $1,326.50

R3: $1,336.40

Support levels:

S1: $1,292.18

S2: $1,282.60

S3: $1.270.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for September 27, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3363. According to the 15M time frame, I found a breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.3410, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I placed Fibonacci expansion from most recent swings to find potential downward targets. I got FE 100% at the price of 1.3330 and FE 161.8% at the price of 1.3270.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3514

R2: 1.3570

R3: 1.3620

Support levels:

S1: 1.3410

S2: 1.3355

S3: 1.3300

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for September 27, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $4.087. The president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, has stated that bitcoin does not fall under the regulatory powers of the ECB. The statement was made in response to a question from the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. Draghi also expressed the ECB's intention to assess the cyber risks associated with bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The technical picture is that strong resistance cluster is on the test.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found strong resistance cluster at the price of $4.000-$4.120. The strong support now became strong resistance, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Fibonacci retracement 61.8% is set at the price of $4.170. The intraday trend is bullish but there is strong short-term resistance in the background. Watch for potential selling opportunities if you see strong rejection from resistance. The downward target i set at the price of $3.510.

Support/Resistance

$4.120 Resistance (price action)

$4.000 – Major cluster resistance (price action)

$4.170 – Fibonacci retracement 61.8% (price action)

$3.841 – Intraday support

$3.510 – Objective point

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 27, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested earlier in September.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.

The current price levels of 0.7320-0.7350 can be watched for a valid SELL entry if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 27, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.

On the other hand, If the current bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 (the depicted uptrend line) and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 27, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair continues to resist the negative pressure that emerged from the strong decline of stochastic below the 50 level. Please note its stability above the initial support at 150.00 level. Besides, the stability of 50% Fibonacci correction level at 149.15 (which is calculated as the price decline from 174.94 to 123.05) confirms a further bullish bias with upward targets at 152.80 and 155.10. The stability of the moving average 55 below the current main trendline reinforces our bullish outlook. Having gained momentum, the pair increases its resistance to intraday negative pressure. The expected trading range for today is between 150.00 and 152.80

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for September 27, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair traded higher yesterday. The pair breached the 111.75 level and settled above it. At present, the pair is fluctuating inside the sideways range. The pair is ready to test resistance at 112.80 of this trading range. Therefore, USD/JPY is expected to trade in a sideways manner in the short term until the price manages to breach one of the levels of the trading range. Then, traders can determine next targets. Please note that breaching 112.80 will push the price to achieve more gains and visit the previous top at 114.49 as the next main station. On the other hand, breaking 111.75 will push the pair to return to the main bearish track again. The downward targets are seen at 110.90 followed by 110.06. The expected trading range for today is between 111.50 support and 113.50 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Gold for September 27, 2017

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Overview

Gold price continues its decline to approach our main target level at $1,281.17. Please note that it is important to monitor the price until the target level is reached. In case it is broken, the metal will extend the correctional bearish wave to reach the next downward target at $1,263.15. In general, we still suggest the bearish trend for today unless the price manages to breach $1,299.20 level and hold with a daily close above it. The expected trading range for today is between $1,281.00 support and $1,305.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for September 27, 2017

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Overview

Silver traded lower yesterday. The price is expected to approach our main target level of 16.56 to keep the bearish scenario valid until now. This outlook is supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50. Please be aware that it is important to monitor the price movement until the price reaches the target level, as breaking it will push the price to head towards 15.49 as the next main target. On the other hand, we should note that breaching 17.43 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to resume its bullish track again. The expected trading range for today is between 16.70 support and 17.00 resistance.

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Trump can support the dollar

The head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, confirmed in her next speech the Fed's intention to follow the pace of a gradual rate hike. According to her, a delay for too long is associated with the risk of overheating the labor market and therefore, the FOMC should not be too slow and wait until inflation returns to the target level of 2%.

Meanwhile, Inflation is on a positive trajectory that needs not hurry in its course. TheCore inflation declined for 3 consecutive months and currently remains below the long-term average. Fed's concern about weak price increases is understandable as the consumer price index (PCE) without food and energy is also declining. Insisting on another rate hike under current conditions means agreeing with a certain degree of risk.

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However, Yellen believes that low inflation is a temporary phenomenon. The reason for this confidence was repeatedly voiced earlier. Based on the assumption that a stable decrease in unemployment will be associated with an increase in the average wage and growth in real incomes of the population, the Fed placed great hopes on the growing labor market which naturally will contribute to the correction of consumer prices.

The market favorably accepted the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve while the dollar strengthened somewhat across the spectrum of the market. At the end of the day, the futures market had a 76% chance of another rate hike in December, which corresponds to a strong confidence. This sets a bullish tone for the dollar which will contribute to its growth.

Today, three more members of the FOMC namely, Bullard, Brainard, and Rosengren, will present their vision on the situation of the rates and its development. Obviously, the Fed wants to manage market expectations as closely as possible. Hence, the market reaction will likely be positive too, which will support the dollar. Unless, of course, it is leveled by frankly poor macroeconomic data. A report on durable goods orders for August will be published today after the dip of 6.8% in July. The market expects an increase of 1% and any deviation from the forecasts will have a noticeable effect on the dollar.

The main factor that the market will be concentrated in the next 24 hours is likely in the presentation of a detailed tax reform plan in the Congress. This has been a long-awaited event as the main directions of the reform were presented back in April. The expectations of the plan presentation are confidently positive.

It is planned to announce several important changes at once which investors will appreciate. It is a question of tax holidays when repatriating income received abroad, a tax deduction for capital expenditures and, of course, a reduction in the corporate tax rate. Currently, the main intrigue is focused on the volume of decline, whereas a rate cut of 15% has been previously announced and there is a tendency for the market to change it into 20% since the present budget revenues fall much stronger than forecasts. In particular, the budget revenues in August amounted to 97.8% similar to the same month last year. Reductions were observed in nine of the last 18 months and revenues amounted to only 88% of the planned budget which is significantly lower than expected. Nonetheless, lack of funds is offset by the growth of borrowing but this process requires a quick response.

If expectations are met, the market will have a new impetus to growth. In particular, the shares of companies with large cache volumes accumulated abroad will also grow and there will also be an increase in momentum for the growth of a company with a high level of capital-intensive fixed assets, which will eventually boost the growth of the stock market. The presentation of the plan will provoke demand for the dollar that will eventually become the main driver of the trend reversal to the north.

Protective assets can be the most affected. At the end of the day, gold may move lower than the support area of 1288 while the euro will continue correction towards support level of 1.16. The yen will test resistance at 112.80 for strength.

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Торговый план 27.09.2017

Trading plan for September 27, 2017

The overall picture: The correction for EUR/USD

The EUR/USD rate, which started on Friday, September 22, continues to decline. The course has already passed more than 250 points in the 4-character.

The cause and impetus of the first decline were the weak results of the Merkel party in the elections in Germany.

The continuation of the decline and the beginning of the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed. Reducing the balance of the Fed will start in October.

Well, perhaps the main reason for the decline in the euro is the overdue correction to the 6-month growth of the euro from 1.0500 to about 1.2100, even 50% of the retracement is up to 1.1300.

We stand on sale from 1.1860 and while holding sales. Purpose 1.1660.

At 13.30 London time, important news on the US: Orders for durable goods.

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Global macro overview for 27/09/2017

Global macro overview for 27/09/2017:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision ( Official Cash Rate) might not be that importnat as global investors assume. The market consensus favors no change in the interest rate level, so it should stay at 1.75%. The ambiguous picture of New Zeland's economy favors a continuation of a rather cautious tone of RBNZ. The GDP accelerated in the second quarter from 0.5% to 0.8%, but the pace of growth is not strong enough, so it cannot create additional demand which, in turn, would lift up the inflationary pressures. The house market dynamic(very important for RBNZ) is decreasing, but overall still performing well. The job market is now nearly full, so wages might not accelearate much anytime soon. Another uncertainty is the fiscal policy, as the result of the parliamentary elections did not give any of the political party a majority.

In conclusion, the RBNZ will likely not create additional uncertainty just before Governor Wheeler's term is due and in general will reiterate its latest move from August. This means a cautious and neutral tone of the statement (the monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period) and regards to the NZD, the bank should reiterate the dovish point of view: a lower New Zealand Dollar is needed to increase inflation and encourage more balanced growth. Any difference in tone of the statment will be a pretty big surprise for markets.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price has broken below the golden trend line support and is currently trading close to the technical support at the level of 0.7166. in oversold market conditions. The most important support for bulls is still the level of 0.7131 and only a breakout below this level would trigger the continuation of the downtrend.

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Global macro overview for 27/09/2017

Global macro overview for 27/09/2017:

In her yesterday's speech, the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said raising interest rates gradually is the most appropriate policy measure amid uncertainty over the pace of inflation. In her opinion, it would be "unreasonable" to wait with hikes until inflation rises to 2.0%, and the Fed should be careful not to change policies too slowly. Yellen is convinced that inflation will be higher, that she has admitted she is expecting an overshoot of the projected inflation level. These were strong words that send a signal to the market not to pay too much attention to recent weak inflation readings.

As expected, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen yesterday did nothing to close the door to a December interest rate hike. On the contrary, it maintained the relatively hawkish tone continued after last week's FOMC conference.At least the Fed is not going to worry about it and prefer to normalize its policies based on other strengths of the economy (growth, labor market, still loose financial conditions). The US economy is in good shape, even with the effects of hurricanes, the Fed is clearly aiming for a December interest rate hike.

Today we will hear from other FOMC policymakers, Brainard and Bullard, where the market participants can expect the more dovish tone of the statements. Even if it would hurt the US Dollar, then surely on the market there are no shortage of investors waiting for a temporary weakness of USD to refresh the long positions.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is approaching the key technical resistance zone between the levels of 93.35- 93.65. There is still no sign of a negative divergence, so any breakout through this zone will directly expose the next technical resistance at the level of 94.16.

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Bitcoin analysis for 27/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 27/09/2017:

The European Central Bank claims, that it does not have enough legitimate power to ban cryptocurrencies. In response to the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, Draghi said that "we do not have the power to prohibit and regulate Bitcoin or other digital currency." Draghi, in response to a question of whether the ECB intends to establish a legal framework or completely prohibit cryptocurrency and whether higher capital requirements for fintech are required to protect the banking sector, said that the ECB does not yet discuss the potential impact of cryptocurrency, but analyzes the risks associated with digital currencies, due to their scale, use, and economic impact. Moreover, he added that cryptocurrencies are still too immature to be considered a viable payment method:" We need to find out what economic effects cryptocurrency have.The main problem for the ECB in the field of cryptocurrency and digital innovations is generally the issue of cybersecurity".

Earlier this month Draghi also criticized the proposal for an initiative in Estonia to launch a national digital currency called "estcoin", explaining that in the Eurozone the Euro is the only legal payment method and no member can declare its own currency.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H4 time frame. After the breakout above the dashed black trend line, the market is consolidating the gains in a narrow price range between the levels of $3,962 - $3, 841. The most important zone for the bulls is the gray rectangle area between the levels of $4,111 - $4,000. In order to move higher, the bulls must break through this zone in impulsive fashion. The nearest support is seen at the level of $3,738.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 27, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. USD/JPY is still expected to trade in the upper range as a bias remains bullish. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

To conclude, as long as 111.80 is not broken, look for a further rise to 112.55 and even to 112.80 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 111.80 with a target at 111.45.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 111.80, Take Profit: 112.55

Resistance levels: 112.55, 112.80 and 113.10 Support Levels: 111.45, 111.20, 110.85

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Trading plan for 27/09/2017

Trading plan for 27/09/2017:

The US Dollar is under supply pressure since the mornin. The strongest rivals against USD is AUD (+0.3%), GBP (+0.23%), and CHF (+0.23%). Slightly above the line are precious metals and Crude Oil. Gold ounce (+0.05%) costs $1,295, while the WTI settled up at $52.20 (+0.7%). The indecisiveness of the global stock market has reached Asia, where indices clearly cannot decide which direction to follow. Hang Seng is up 0.4%, Shanghai Composite is + 0.1% up, Nikkei 225 is -0.3% down.

On Wednesday 27th of September, the event calendar is quite busy with important news releases, especially during the late NY session when the US will post Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and Crude Oil Inventories. Moreover, there is a scheduled speech from BOC Governor Stephen Poloz and FOMC Member Lael Brainard. Later on, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will present the Official Cash Rate.

EUR/USD analysis for 27/09/2017:

The Durable Goods Orders are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and market participants expect a good increase to 1.0% in the reported month from -6.8% last month. The Durable Goods Orders data are the value of orders placed for relatively long-lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile. If the data meet market participants expectations for a 1.0% increase, then this figure will be the biggest advance in Durable Goods Orders since November 2016. In this situation, the US Dollar might find some bid and get appreciated across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has hit the technical support at the level of 1.1775 but the bulls were too weak to bounce significantly and the price has tanked again. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1721. Please notice the market conditions are now getting more oversold.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY at new highs

The price of USD/JPY has made a new marginal high at the level of 112.80, just below the 78% Fibo at the level of 112.91. Nevertheless, there is a clear divergence between the price and the momentum indicator, so the rally up might not last long. The nearest support is seen at the level of 111.55.

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Market Snapshot: Gold fake breakout gets reversed

The price of Gold had broken out of the golden channel, but it turned out the breakout was fake and the price was capped around the level of $1,313 and then reversed back to the channel zone. Currently, the price is again testing the technical support at the level of $1,287. In case of a breakout lower, the next support is seen at the level of $1,276.

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What did the Fed Chairman Yellen say on September 26

What did the Fed Chairman Yellen say on September 26?

Inflation is the theme of Yellen's speech and her position is mixed. She says that inflation uncertainty has led to a slow rate increase. Although, gradual increases can lead to an overheated labor market and, in turn, to undesirable inflation pressures. Yellen repeats her previous comments that the effect of low inflation this year is probably due to one-time "special" factors, such as a decline in prices for cellular telephone services earlier in the year. Yellen also reiterates that they expects inflation to return the norm. This is due to the labor market intensifying further. And with it, the demands for higher wages begin to increase. Although this seems to tighten the Fed's position, it also warns that many uncertainties remain and that inflation could remain low. Here, she points out that low wage growth is tied to a low productivity growth. She also hints at a continuation of the low wage period. The Federal Reserve puts a special emphasis on inflation expectations. Here, it also notes that expectations have "decreased a little" in the past 2-3 years. This can make achieving a two percent FOMC inflation target more difficult. However, Yellen offers a harsh note again, saying that it would be reckless to keep monetary policy pending until inflation returns to two percent. There are two sides at the same time in her comments. The door is still open. Will the FOMC raise rates again this year?

The final note was about reducing the Fed's balance sheet, which will begin next month. Although, the Fed should still outline how far this will go. Yellen noted this in questions and answers that the current balance of $ 4.5 trillion will be higher than its level at the time of the crisis in 2008, which is about $ 1 trillion.

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EURUSD: Movement down continues

EURUSD: The movement continues downward.

Breaking forecast.

The beginning of the week is poor for the news. The momentum of decline in the EURUSD was set by the weak result of Merkel's party in the elections in Germany, which caused concerns about the stability of the EU.

On Tuesday, the main event was the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen. Although the head of the Fed tried as much as possible to soften statements about the policy of the Fed, nevertheless the main thing remains valid: the Fed will raise the interest rate on the dollar again at the end of this year (most likely in December) by + 0.25%. Also, in October, a program for the gradual withdrawal of additional money supply from the markets, injected there by the Fed during the recovery period after the 2008-09 crisis during the three QE programs in the period from 2009 to 2013, will begin in October.

Today, at 12.30 PM London time, there will be a report on orders for durable goods - strong data for the US is expected.

We advise continue to hold selling for EURUSD. Selling from the upward rebound from 1.1830 and from 1.1860 are possible.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 27, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair has faced strong support at the level of 0.7131. So, the strong resistance has been already faced at the level of 0.7131 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. The level of 0.7131 represents a double bottom for that it is acting as minor support this week. Furthermore, the NZD/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.7131. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to move between 0.7131 and 0.7167. Additionally, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.7167/ 0.7131 with the first target at the level of 0.7247. If the trend is be able to break the first resistance at the level of 0.7247, then the market will continue rising towards the weekly resistance 2 at 0.7319. Also, it should be noticed that the double top is set at 0.7435.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 27, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains billush in the nearest term testing 0.9828 or higher. The USD/CHF pair will continue rising from the area of 0.9674-0.9660 in the long term. The current price is seen at 0.9674 which represents a key level today. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.9674 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9743. So, buy above the level of 0.9743 with the first target at 0.9790 in order to test the daily resistance 2. Besides, it should be noted that the level of 0.9790 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.9790, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the target of 0.9828 today. However, if a breakout happens at 0.9620, this scenario may be invalidated.
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Daily analysis of USDX for September 27, 2017

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 27, 2017

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 27, 2017

The US Dollar is extending its gains as the index broke above short-term resistance at 92.70 and price has reached our short-term target of 93-93.50. The Dollar index is testing now important daily cloud resistance.

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Blue line - resistance

The Dollar index has reached our 100% target extension of the first leg up. Price is trading above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators (red and yellow lines). Trend is bullish in the 4-hour chart. Support is at 92.95 and at 92.65.

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Red lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index has reached the upper boundary of the bearish channel and is very close to the Daily Kumo (cloud) resistance. This resistance is at 93.70. Daily support is found at 92.40. A move below 92.40 will confirm that the bounce is complete. I believe it is more probable to see a reversal to the downside than a continuation of this upward bounce.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 27, 2017

After the rejection in the 4-hour cloud resistance at $1,313, Gold price is now back at its monthly lows. Downside is limited. Price will find support at $1,277. A new low will provide another divergence in the RSI. This is bullish.

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Red lines - bearish channel

Blue line - bullish divergence

Gold price got rejected by the Kumo yesterday and is back testing the broken bearish channel. Price could make a new low as trend in Ichimoku terms in the 4-hour chart remains bearish. However, a new low is expected not to make a new low in the RSI. This will be a bullish signal, implying that downside is limited.

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On a weekly basis, Gold price is above the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Support is at $1,280. I believe Gold will hold that level. If this level is broken, the weekly downside potential will be at $1,245. Longer-term view and trend for Gold remains bullish. This pullback is considered a buying opportunity.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 27, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a clear break above minor resistance at 1.6441 to confirm that red wave iv did complete with the test of 1.6137 and red wave v to above 1.6690 is developing.

Support is seen at 1.6274 and should ideally protect the downside for the expected break above 1.6441.

R3: 1.6441

R2: 1.6409

R1: 1.6388

Pivot: 1.6335

S1: 1.6323

S2: 1.6289

S3: 1.6274

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6265 with stop at break-even. If our stop is hit, a new EUR-buy order should be placed at 1.6230 with stop set at 1.6130.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 27, 2017

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EUR/JPY - 4-Hourly

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EUR/JPY - 30-Minutes

Wave summary:

We have seen a nice five-wave decline from 134.41 to 131.70, which adds confidence in our assumption that wave (D) of the huge triangle consolidation did complete prematurely at 134.41. This means wave (E) now is developing. We have to say that E-waves of triangles is tricky as they can unfold as sub-normal waves, they can be of normal length and they can be triangles themselves. So the best way to handle them is to expect the pair to follow the normal guidelines, but at the first unexpected move they should be considered complete.

The normal behavior for this wave (E) would be a decline to at least 125.53 and likely closer to 119.68.

R3: 133.83

R2: 133.38

R1: 132.60

Pivot: 132.25

S1: 131.93

S2: 131.70

S3: 131.30

Trading recommendation:

We will sell EUR at 133.25 or upon a break below 131.93.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 27, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.9675. Although the pair posted a pullback from 0.9725 (the high of September 26), a support base at 0.9675 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. Even though a further consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen commented that the central bank has to raise interest rates gradually as it would be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2%. She added, "Without further modest increases in the federal funds rate over time, there is a risk that the labor market could eventually become overheated, potentially creating an inflationary problem down the road that might be difficult to overcome without triggering a recession."

Hence, above 0.9675, look for a further rebound with targets at 0.9745 (highs of September 21 and 25) and 0.9770 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9675, Take Profit: 0.9745

Resistance levels: 0.9745, 0.9770, and 0.9795

Support levels: 0.9650, 0.9625, and 0.9775

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 27, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. From a technical point of view, the relative strength index validated a bullish divergence. At the same time, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period one, triggering a bullish signal.

This is calling for long positions above 150.30 with targets at 151.80 and 152.25 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 150.30 with the target at 149.70.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 150.30, Take Profit: 151.80

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 151.80, 152.25 and 153.00

Support levels: 149.70, 149.15, and 148.45

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 27, 2017

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. Although the pair posted a rebound, it is still trading below its declining 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50. The upside potential should be limited by the key resistance at 0.7250.

Hence, as long as this key level is not surpassed, a further decline to 0.7165 and even to 0.7130 seems more likely to occur.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines is showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7275, 0.7295, and 0.7325

Support levels: 0.7165, 0.7130, and 0.7100

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis of September 26, 2017

Bitcoin has been quite bullish recently with a pre-breakout squeeze just below the important price level of $4,000.00. After the Chinese negative impact on the Bitcoin growth recently, ECB President Draghi showed interest in Bitcoin. Yesterday, Draghi delivered some positive comments on Bitcoin, providing the cryptocurrency with a positive push, which is also perceived as a positive sign for the upcoming growth. Draghi quite favored Bitcoin and he is very much looking forward for the digital currency future in other countries. As the price had a bullish pre-breakout squeeze recently below $4,000.00 and as per the recent event, Bitcoin is expected to break above $4,000.00 in the coming days with the target towards 4,386.80 and later towards $4,500.00. After the recent Kijun and Tenkan cross and Chikou Span broke above the candle resistance, the probability of breaking above $4,000.00 increased significantly and further bullish move is expected as the price remains above $3,750.00 with a daily close.

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Fundamental Analysis of EURJPY for September 26, 2017

EUR/JPY has been impulsively bearish recently and the price fell from 134.00 to 132.00. Currently, the price is residing at the edge of 132, which is expected to show further bearish move towards 130.00 in the coming days. Today Japan's CSPI report was published with an increase of 0.8%in comparison with the previous value of 0.6% and expectations of 0.7%; the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes revealed positive future policies, including an increase in productivity by boosting corporate investments, which led to further gains in JPY against EUR today. On the EUR side, today the German Import prices showed zero change from the previous 0.4% drop missing the expectation of 0.1%. The worse-than-expected report from Germany supported JPY, leading to weakness in EUR. As of the current market scenario, JPY is expected to move further downwards against EUR until EUR comes up with significant positive economic reports or events to counter with bullish move in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of the 132.00 support level which is also an event level that is expected to show further directional movement in this pair. The price is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well. As the price remains above the 132.00 support level and the dynamic level of 20 EMA, it is expected to show a bullish movement towards the 134.30 resistance level. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the 132.00 support level, it will also lead to a break below the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well as result in bearish pressure on the 130.60 support level.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSD for September 26, 2017

GBP/USD has been quite volatile lately, currently showing some bearish pressure towards the support level of 1.3370. The pound broke lower as the US dollar was gaining momentum amid the crash in the stock market, hawkish economic events, and reports published recently. Today the UK High Street Landing report was published with a slight increase to 41.8K in comparison with the previous figure of 41.6K and expectations of 41.7K. Though the report showed a positive result, the sterling kept declining till now as the market sentiment shifted towards buying the dollar against major currencies. On the USD side, today the CB Consumer Confidence report was published, which showed a slight decrease to 119.8 from the previous figure of 120.4 compared to forecasts of 119.9. The US New Home Sales report also showed a decrease to 560K from the previous figure of 580 against expectations of a rise to 585K. Additionally, FOMC Member Brainard and Fed Chair Yellen are going to speak today about the nation's key interest rate and future monetary policy, which is expected to be hawkish in nature. To sum up, GBP has been seeing some consolidation and currently some downfall leading to further gain on the USD side. If today Yellen speaks positively about the upcoming economic projections, then we might see a more impulsive bearish move taking the price lower to 1.30 again.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently showing bearish pressure after rejecting the bullish momentum earlier today. Currently, the price is expected to reach 1.3370; and if the price breaks below 1.3370 with a daily close, then we will expect the price to fall to the 1.3050-1.3120 support area in the coming days before the price jumps up again to continue with the bullish trend. As the price remains above 1.30, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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