Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 12, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Although the pair posted a pullback from 0.7240, it is still trading above the key support at 0.7200 (the low of July 11), which should limit the downside potential. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To conclude, as long as 0.7245 is not broken, look for a rebound with targets at 0.7280 and 0.7300 in extension.

Strategy: BUY Stop Loss: 0.7245 Take Profit: 0.7280

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7300, and 0.7375

Support levels: 0.7215, 0.7200, and 0.7165

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USD/JPY dropping nicely as expected, remain bearish

Price has started to drop really nicely from our selling area as expected. We remain bearish below major resistance at 114.32 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish divergence) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level to push price down to at least 111.77 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% and has made a bearish triangle exit. We can also see bearish divergence vs price signalling that a reversal is fast impending.

Sell below 114.32. Stop loss at 115.09. Take profit at 111.77.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for July 12, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair retreated downwards clearly after approaching the 114.50 barrier yesterday. The pair aims to push on the bullish channel's support that appears on the chart and is moving below it now. It means the price is about to start bearish correction before the rise that started from 108.80 areas, as the first correctional level is located at 113.15. Therefore, the bearish bias is expected in the upcoming sessions. Breaking 113.15 will confirm the way towards 112.32 as the next main station, while breaching 113.65 followed by 114.00 will stop the current bearish bias and lead the price to resume the bullish trend again. The expected trading range for today is between 112.32 support and 114.20 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 12, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair was affected by the strength of 147.65 barrier. The pair has to be forced to make correctional bearish trading from the initial support around 145.20.The intraday downward trading is caused by a stochastic sharp decline. Besides, approaching from the oversold areas increases the chances of moving towards the moving average 55, located now at 142.60. These factors allow us to suggest the intraday downward trading and wait until the correctional targets. However, we should note that the price attempt to rally above the main barrier at 147.65 will confirm the bullish bias and open the way to rally towards 149.40 followed by moving towards 38.2% Fibonacci correction level at 150.95. The expected trading range for today is between 146.70 and 142.60

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Daily analysis of Gold for July 12, 2017

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Overview

Gold price has breached 1,214.30 level after closing the daily candlestick above it. This activates the bullish scenario on the intraday basis. 1,229.32 level is targted initially, which represents 38.2% Fibonacci level which was broken previously to turn into the key resistance now. Therefore, the bullish trend will be suggested for the short term unless breaking 1,208.92 level and holding below it. Please note that stochastic and the EMA50 clearly indicate negativity that could make the rising mission harder. Breaching 1,229.32 represents the key to extend Gold price gains to reach 1,254.56 as the next main station. The expected trading range for today is between 1,208.00 support and 1,235.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for July 12, 2017

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Overview

Silver price rallied clearly yesterday to breach 15.70 level and settled above it, which opens the way to a further bullish bias in the upcoming sessions. Now, silver is on its way to test 16.56 as the first main station. Therefore, we should wait until another rise on the intraday and short-term basis. Breaching the targeted level will push the price to head towards 17.43 directly. The expected rise will remain valid unless breaking 15.49 and holding below it. The expected trading range for today is between 15.70 support and 16.20 resistance.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 12, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1300) until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Any bullish breakout above 1.1300 will probably liberate a quick bullish advance towards 1.1495 and 1.1600.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where the price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recently, the price levels around 1.1280-1.1295 stood as an intraday resistance where recent bearish correction was initiated towards 1.1120.

The evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.1120 where the current bullish movement towards 1.1400 was initiated.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Daily Supply-Zone) where a valid SELL entry can be offered while price action is being watched.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1260-1.1130 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched for bullish rejection.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 12, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL opportunity were expressed on June 14.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Risky traders could have a valid SELL entry at retesting of the price level of 0.7310. S/L should be lowered to 0.7350 to offset the associated risk.

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7230 then 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) for a valid SELL position.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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USD/JPY analysis for July 12, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 113.34. According to the 4H time frame, I found a breakout of a 1-month rising wedge, wich is a sign that buying looks risky. Another sign of weaknes is a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average osiclator. My advice is to watch for selling opportuntiies. The downward targets are set at the price of 112.85 and 111.90.

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.60

R2: 113.70

R3: 113.85

Support levels:

S1: 113.30

S2: 113.20

S3: 113.05

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for July 12, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2865. According to the 30M time frame, I found confirmed double bottom formation and fake breakout of yesterday's low, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.2920.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2875

R2: 1.2900

R3: 1.2925

Support levels:

S1: 1.2820

S2: 1.2790

S3: 1.2770

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/NZD for July 12, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD is set to move higher towards the next upside target seen at 1.6232. Short-term support is now seen at 1.5712 which we expect will be able to protect the downside for the expected rally higher.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5645 with stop placed at 1.5600. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5712 and use the same stop.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/JPY for July 12, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY has likely peaked just below our ideal 131.21 target (the high has been seen at 130.77). With the peak in place, we are looking for a decline towards 125.82 before the next rally higher towards 140.00 should be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We missed our selling opportunity near 131.21 but will sell here at 129.85 with a stop placed at 130.85.

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Global macro overview for 12/07/2017

Global macro overview for 12/07/2017:

The most important event of the day is Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen's speech in the front of the US Congress. It is very

possible, that Jannet Yellen will reinforce the message from the press conference of June 14 FOMC meeting and continue to guide the

financial market towards an announcement of the beginning of balance sheet normalization at the September 20 meeting as well as a rate

hike by year-end. Moreover, the market participants will focus on Yellens comments around inflation and the justification, that the

recent pause in inflationary pressures is likely due to transitory factors. Any change from this statements might trigger interesting

developments. The hawkishness of this event would help the dollar and could harm the stocks. Dovishness of Yellen statements should

work the other way round.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market slid towards the technical support at

the level of 95.47 again and if the bounce from this level will be strong enough to break out above the level of 96.61, this might be

a Double Bottom pattern. The hawkish comments from Yellen will definitely help to unfold this scenario.

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Global macro overview for 12/07/2017

Global macro overview for 12/07/2017:

The UK Job market data were slightly better than expected. The number of workers applying for jobless benefits decreases in June after three months of rising to the level of 6.0k from 7.3k. The unemployment rate ticks down from 4.6% to 4.5%, but the average earnings index stays unchanged at the level of 1.8%, lower than a 2.1% reading a month ago.

The data might disappoint the interest rate hike supporters as the inflationary pressures in wages are diminishing. Slower wages growth, combined with higher inflation, is expected to weigh on UK households' purchasing power. Moreover, in the result, it means the consumption in the UK might decrease as well, so the British economy might suffer another slide down in the GDP forecasts. The broad growth trend has been downshifting according to National Institute of Economic Research (NIESR) despite the fact that the quarterly GDP has been revised to 0.3% which is slightly stronger reading than official government 0.2% figure. Nevertheless, the last year growth of 0.5% - 0.7% is nowhere to be seen.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price has hit the technical support at the level of 1.2817 before bouncing on the better than expected data to the level of 1.2861. Currently, the price is trading back in the golden channel and the oversold market conditions are supporting the upside bias at this timeframe.

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Анализ Дивергенций GBP/USD на 12 июля

4h

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In the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD pair continues to have a price decline towards the corrective level of 100.0% - 1.2707 on the back of the formation of the bearish divergence.

Bearish divergence in the CCI indicator: the last peak of price moved lower compared with the previous one and does not coincide with the final peak of the indicator.

Daily

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In the 24-hour chart, as the bearish divergence is formed, the downward process also continues moving towards the Fibo level of 200.0% - 1.2653.

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Candlestick analysis of NZD / USD on July 12

4h

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Prices hang up from the correction level of 161.8% to 0.7199 and the formation of bullish Harami candlestick pattern are working in favor of the New Zealand currency.

The expansion started in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% - 0.7289.

The NZD / USD consolidated below the correction level of 161.8% which will increase chances of further decline in prices towards the next corrective level of 100.0% - 0.7053.

The Fibonacci grid is placed on extremes from April 24, 2017 and May 11, 2017.

Daily

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The weakening of the NZD / USD pair continues as shown the 24-hour chart towards the direction of the correction level of 23.6% - 0.7172. The pair's retracement level of 23.6% is expected to allow traders make a move favorable to the New Zealand currency and some development approaching the correction level of 0.0% - 0.7484. The formation of the bullish candle pattern will also work inclined with the initial growth of the pair. The pair consolidated below the Fibo level of 23.6% had increased chances of continuing the decline towards the next correction level of 38.2% - 0.6977.

The Fibonacci grid is located on extremes from August 24, 2015 and September 8, 2016.

Specification:

Weak candle formations will be marked with plain text and a smaller size of arrows.

Strong candle formations will be marked with bold text and a larger size of arrows.

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Brent Returns to Bears

Investors in the oil market were initially thrown into the heat then to the cold. Brent and WTI marked an 8-day rally, then dropped for six days in a row. Stabilizing the situation supported rumors on the dissatisfaction of OPEC members with the production growth of Libya and Nigeria, who were exempted from obligations, that reduced the volume of planned oil output by a third to the balance of the scale of production cuts. A critical decision on these countries will be taken at the end of July in Moscow, but Goldman Sachs argues that it will not be able to support oil. In order for WTI to not collapse below $40 per barrel, we need a new cut from the group, which is currently not being discussed.

Looking at the movement of the futures of both varieties, it appears that the "bears" have yet to dominate. Oil poorly responded to positive news and quickly fell into the negative. In this respect, Thomson Reuters reported growth in OPEC exports to 25.92 million barrels per day in June, up by 450,000 bpd from May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier, became the catalyst for sales. However, a much greater impact came from the report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in which, along with the reduction in inventories, there was room for news on the rise of overall production to 9.34 million bbls. The decline at the end of last week was seen as a temporary event, which allowed the "bears" on Brent and WTI to go on another attack.

It just so happened that the supply is currently on the US side, which miraculously survived due to OPEC's decision to cut production at the end of 2016. Bank of America Merrill Lynch claims that every dollar is equivalent to 100,000 bbls. That is, if WTI will climb to $1, then US companies will increase oil production by 100,000 bbls, if it falls by $1, then production will drop by the same amount. Thus, the fall in oil prices to $40 per barrel will result in a decline in the figure to 9.6 million bbls in 2017 (EIA predicts it will be 10 million bbls), and the growth of futures prices for the Texas grade to $70 will raise production to 12.1 million bbls. Would it be able to withstand the OPEC with its -1.8 million b/d rate???

Dynamics of oil production in the USA

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Source: Financial Times.

In such a situation, the decline in the forecast of Goldman Sachs on WTI from $55.0 to $47.5 for the third quarter appears quite reasonable. "Bears" kept a tight hold on the market, and all the success of the "bulls" are more of a local disposition. Until the production and the number of drilling rigs in the United States have not been steadily declining or until there are signs of the global oil market rebalancing, Brent and WTI sales will continue to be relevant.

Technically, the inability of the Brent bulls to keep the support at $46.55 per barrel (38.2% of the last upward long-wave) will raise the risk of continuing the peak towards the direction of $44 (the lower limit of the downward channel) and $42.8. On the contrary, if buyers of the North Sea crude variety are unyielding, then we are waiting for a return of prices to $49-50 per barrel.

Brent, daily chart

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Trading plan for 12/07/2017

Trading plan for 12/07/2017:

The dollar does not gain any of the major pairs, which is the conclusion of FED Harker's dovish speech and the affair with Donald Trump's son. The EUR/USD is above 1.1450 and USD/JPY has made a massive return with several months' highs. Oil continues the rally as yesterday, and precious metal prices are also rising. Wall Street's downfall lasted just a few minutes yesterday and all indices were close with minor gains.

On Wednesday 12th of July, the event calendar is busy with important economic news releases. It will start with the UK presenting Claimant Count Change, Average Earning Index and Unemployment Rate data. Then Industrial Production from Eurozone will be presented. Next in schedule is Overnight Rate decision from Bank od Canada and Interest Rate Statement, Monetary Policy Report and Press Conference. And last, but not least, the Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen will speak late in the session in the US Congress.

USD/CAD analysis for 12/07/2017:

The Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Interest Rate Statement and Monetary Policy Report is scheduled for release at 02:00 pm GMT and the Press Conference is scheduled at 03:15 pm GMT. The market participants do expect an interest rate hike from 0.50% to 0.75% and most of this hike had been priced in by the market already. In this situation, a much more interesting for financial market participants will be news regarding further monetary policy because this interest rate hike might be the first one in the series.

The Bank of Canada President Stephen Poloz and his colleagues have done a lot in recent weeks to prepare the market for a rate hike that is now priced in at 95%. President Poloz said that the 2016 anti-crisis cuts "did their job" and the current level of rates is "extremely low." At the same time, he and Wilkins expressed a clear optimism over the situation in the economy, particularly its improvement over 2016. An impressive increase in new jobs (last month's increase by 45,300) and a clear improvement of the business climate (the Business Outlook Survey indicator is the highest since 2011) is a solid argument for a hike.

CAD has for some time been the beneficiary of this return in the central bank's outlook, and now only a clear rise of expectations for the continuation of the tightening cycle could give a stronger impulse to strengthen the currency. It does not seem real, so "sales of facts" can hit CAD across the board.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market is trading in oversold conditions with a clear bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2968 and 1.3015, so in a case of selling the fact scenario happening, this two levels might be easily violated.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil close to 61%Fibo level

The price of Crude Oil has hit the 61%Fibo at the level of $45.90 after the API Inventories data release yesterday ( -8100k decrease in stockpiles). The price is continuing its bounce from the $43 zone, but the market conditions are starting to look overbought. In a case of a failure here, the next technical support is seen at the level of $45.64 and $45.58.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY is falling down

The price of USD/JPY pair is falling down from the muti-month highs around the level of 114.50. Currently, the price has got back to the golden channel zone and the next technical support is seen at the level of 112.92 - 112. 74 area. The momentum indicator slide below the fifty level supports the downside bias.

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Candlestick analysis of EUR / JPY on July 12

4h

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The formation of the bull pattern on July 12 would allow traders to anticipate a trend beneficial for the European currency. The growth will continue through the direction of the correction level of 200.0% - 130.91. Such formation will be recognized as a trend based on the direction of the equidistant channel. Setting the rate above the Fibo level of 200.0% will increase chances of consistent growth towards the next correction level of 261.8% - 135.91.

The Fibonacci grid is established on the upper limits of March 13, 2017 and April 17, 2017.

Daily

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In the 24-hour chart, the prices were fixed above the correction level of 161.8% - 129.78, which eventually allows to resume the growth towards the next Fibo level of 200.0% - 133.33.

The Fibonacci grid is placed on the extremes from December 15, 2016 and April 17, 2017.

Specification:

Weak candle formations will be marked by plain text with a smaller size of the arrows.

Strong candle formations will be marked by bold text with a larger size of arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD prepare to buy for a push up

Forex analysis review
EUR/USD prepare to buy for a push up

Technical analysis of USDX for July 12, 2017

The Dollar index got rejected from the short-term cloud resistance at 96.30 and pulled back towards its recent lows at 95.50. A possible double bottom formation could be in play as price is bouncing off the previous lows.

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Red line - resistance

Blue line - support

The Dollar index is bouncing off the previous lows at 95.50 which is also a support level. Short-term resistance is at 96.15. Breaking it will increase dramatically the chances of breaking above 96.50 and moving towards 98.

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Blue lines -bearish channel

The Dollar index continues to trade right on top of the lower channel boundary. Daily resistance is at 96-96.50. Breaking it will open the way for a push higher towards 97.60.

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Technical analysis of gold for July 12, 2017

Gold price remains inside the bearish channel and below the Ichimoku cloud. Trend remains bearish. However yesterday's bounce from $1,205 towards $1,220 is the first sign of a possible reversal. Bears need to be very careful. A break above $1,230 will confirm a trend reversal.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Short-term resistance by the cloud and the bearish channel is found at $1,227-35. Support is at $1,210-$1,205. Gold price has started making higher highs and higher lows in the 4-hour chart. However confirmation of a major low will come with the break above $1,235.

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Red lines - wedge patterns

Gold price has broken above and out of the downward sloping wedge pattern. The RSI (5) has also broken the wedge pattern. This implies that a bounce towards the start of the wedge at $1,260 is the minimum expectation for Gold price.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for July 12, 2017

EUR/GBP has finally broken above the resistance level of 0.8850 and expected to have further bullish move in the coming days. Due to Brexit tension and resignation of PM May are currently having the negative effect on the GBP and weakening further against EUR recently. Today EUR German WPI report showed a rise to 0.0% from previous value of -0.7% which did not meet the expected value of 0.2% and Industrial Production report is yet to be published which is expected to rise to 1.0% from previous value of 0.5%. On the GBP side, today Average Earning Index is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 1.8% from previous value of 2.1%, Claimant Count Change is expected to increase to 10.5k from previous value of 7.3k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.6% today. A good amount of high impact reports is going to be published on the GBP side today which is expected to bring in a good amount of volatility today. Though EUR is having an upper hand over GBP currently but a positive report today may lead to a good amount of gain on the GBP side against the EUR by the daily close today.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has already broken above the 0.8850 resistance level yesterday and currently heading towards the next resistance at 0.9050. Some retracement is expected to occur along the way to 0.9050 as the price has moved quite higher above the Mean Reversion dynamic level of 20 EMA which may lead to certain bearish interventions. As the price remains above the 0.8850 the bullish bias is expected to continue further in this pair.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 12, 2017

The pair has pulled back from the 200 SMA area at H1 chart and it's currently finding support at the 1.2839 level, amid USD weakness. Overall, as long as GBP/USD remains below that moving average, we might expect a bearish continuation to test the 1.2756 level following a breakout of the 1.2839 zone. MACD indicator supports the downside, as it remains in the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2914 / 1.3011

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2839 / 1.2756

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2914, take profit is at 1.3011 and stop loss is at 1.2818.

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