The Fed is holding on with its last strength not to lower rates

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The United States and China continue to exchange "courtesies." On Thursday, Beijing once again added fuel to the fire, comparing Washington's position with "economic terrorism." Meanwhile, the date of the next Fed meeting is approaching, and the regulator is in an extremely difficult situation due to the escalation of the trade war, which runs the risk of becoming a full-scale one.

The Fed views trade dispute as one of the serious risks to the growth of the US economy. It is becoming increasingly difficult for financial officials to maintain a neutral stance with regard to monetary policy. Judging by the futures on the Fed rate, the markets are now estimating the probability of lower interest rates by 25 bp by September, more than 50%.

If the risks are justified and GDP growth begins to slow, the Fed will have to act more rapidly than in past economic downturns. The fact is that short-term rates are in the historically low range of 2.25% – 2.50%. Before starting to soften the policy, the Central Bank will want to make sure that the rate of growth slowdown exceeds expectations. Evidence of a more serious decline could be reports on the trust of companies and consumers, as well as indicators of costs and hiring.

It is not excluded that the Fed will start to act ahead of schedule, since the trade war may flare up sharply, and the DKP will be set up incorrectly. Officials are closely following the development of trade negotiations between the United States and China, but they do not give an indication, as well as signals about a likely change in policy.

It is worth noting that too frequent changes in rates can lead to negative consequences in the form of increased volatility and uncertainty in the prospects for markets and the economy as a whole. At the same time, there are concerns that the wait-and-see attitude of the American Central Bank is risky.

"The wait-and-see attitude and intention to see strong evidence of weakening activity means that the fed will begin to mitigate too late, returning to the usual manner and forgetting the lessons learned in January, and will create all conditions for another rate cut," experts write.

The Fed meeting was completed on a positive note. Jerome Powell dispelled market expectations about lowering rates this year, stressing that the recent easing of inflation is a temporary factor. However, since that time, there have been some changes. Donald Trump raised import duties on Chinese goods worth $200 billion from 10% to 25%, further heightening the situation. Beijing did not keep it waiting long and delivered retaliatory measures.

At the moment, the rise in global GDP is of concern, while the US economy is balancing between sharply deteriorated indicators and those that are between growth and decline.

Trade and production data indicate a more serious decline in company sentiment and a reduction in capital investment than previously expected. The preliminary index of US industrial production, according to IHS Markit, fell to 50.6 in May from 52.6 in April, reaching the lowest level since September 2009. The index of activity in the services sector fell to a three-year low of 50.9, previously it was at around 53.

What will happen to the dollar?

The dollar against the basket of the main competitors is held near 2-year highs. It is helped by the status of the world reserve currency, which tends to attract attention during periods of market turmoil and political tension. The dollar continues to strengthen, including due to the weakness of the euro, suffering from a new political clash between Italy and the EU and the pound, falling on news regarding Brexit.

On Thursday, the US currency did not seem to notice the revised down GDP for the first quarter and the PCE index, which is closely monitored by the fed in assessing inflation risks.

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In the period from January to March, the American economy expanded by 3.1% in terms of annual rates, while previously it was about 3.2%. The PCE climbed 1% – the lowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2015, following a 1.8% increase in the previous quarter. The first estimate indicated an increase of 1.3%.

Experts from Julius Baer believe that the upward trend of the dollar ends. This is due to changes in the US economy in terms of GDP dynamics. America is beginning to lose its advantage over other countries and the growth of the global economy as a whole.

JPMorgan also spoke negatively against the dollar. The bank believes that the Fed will have to soften monetary policy. The escalation of the trade conflict between Beijing and Washington has a negative effect on the economic prospects of the States. It is expected that in the second quarter growth will be only 1%.

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Bitcoin to hit $10,000 soon. May 30, 2019

The uptrend of Bitcoin continued after a retreat towards the $8,500 area with a daily close. At the moment, the price is pushing higher, however, being restrained by the dynamic support level of 20 EMA.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $8,700, up significantly from the daily lows of just above $8,400 that were set last night. Analysts say that the range between $8,200 and $8,400 is a key support zone that BTC must not cross in order for its upward momentum to remain.

After two months of a relieving rally, BTC prices are pulling back. It's nothing new. Extended gains, rallies and cool offs are typical in healthy markets, and Bitcoin is no exception. Besides, there is nothing to worry about considering significant developments and shifting sentiment in the last few years. Moreover, changing political stands could thrust Bitcoin into the scene. Gradually, BTC will be more than a medium of exchange but a settlement layer and a store of value. By the end of the year, BTC is anticipated to soar above $20,000, to prices unseen before.

On the contrary, one strong indicator that altcoins are about to make a revival is the fall in Bitcoin market dominance. Today it has fallen back to 55.3 percent, its lowest level since the beginning of the month. BTC dominance is still up compared to earlier this year but the slow decline could be a sign of altcoin resurgence.

As for the current scenario, BTC continues its uptrend aiming the $9,000 area again. A breakout above this level with a daily close is to lead the price higher towards the $10,000 psychological level. As the price remains above $8,000 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to remain.

SUPPORT: 8,000/8,400/8,500

RESISTANCE: 9,000/9,250/9,500/10,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Analysis of Gold for May, 30.2019

Gold price has been trading downwards. The price did hit our down target from yesterday at $1.275 and did flip up, which is sign of the reversal. Gold is very strong today and you should watch for buying on the dips.

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Red horizontal line – Resistance 1

Red horizontal line 2- Resistance 2

White line – Broken resistance trendline

Gold did strong test and reject from of the $1.275, which is strong sign of revesal. Bullish momentum is present and you should watch only for buying opportuntiies.As long as Gold is trading above the $1.275, we will be bullish. Resistance levels are seen at the price of $1.284 and $1.286.

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The appointment of Jens Weidmann as head of the ECB will cause a rally of euro

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As soon as the elections to the European Parliament were over, the struggle for the highest posts of the European leadership began.

It is assumed that the main opposition will unfold between Germany and France, which seek to occupy a leading position in the block.

The fate of the euro will depend on who will head the ECB, the protege of Angela Merkel or Emmanuel Macron.

One of the potential candidates for this position is Jens Weidmann, the President of the German Federal Bank, who is known for his "hawkish" views.

Previously, he openly opposed the ECB's stimulating measures, purchases of sovereign bonds by the regulator and called for the normalization of monetary policy (an increase in interest rates).

Such a candidate represents the most striking contrast with the policy of the current ECB President Mario Draghi.

According to experts, the appointment of J. Weidmann to the position of President of the ECB will help strengthen the euro.

Moreover, the very presence of a German at the helm of the European Central Bank can help prevent the main risk to the stability of the euro – the confrontation between Rome and Brussels over the budget deficit and the level of debt. On Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini announced his intention to make the ECB a guarantor of public debt. Most likely, this initiative will break up about the team of Jens Weidmann and former Spanish Minister of Finance Luis de Guindos, who is now the vice-chairman of the ECB. In his previous position, he proved willingness to take unpopular austerity measures.

Thus, if the post of head of the ECB will take J. Weidmann, then the mood of the "bulls" on the euro will seriously improve.

However, it is unlikely that the regulator will sit idly until October of this year, when Mario Draghi resigns. In June, the Central Bank should announce the details of the long-term refinancing program (LTRO). If the loan rate is set at -2%, which is actually an effective subsidy of banks, interest in the program can be very high. At the same time, the ECB may raise the rate on deposits from the current -0.4% in order to attract investors. Such a policy seems to be more effective than quantitative easing (QE).

Even a hint at an earlier time for increasing the deposit rate than the market expects will be a catalyst for the growth of the euro.

In the meantime, the EUR/USD pair is forced to retreat to the south due to the resuscitation of political risks in the EU and disappointing statistics for the eurozone.

For the third time in the last month, EUR/USD is testing support at 1.113. It is assumed that the success of the "bears" in this event will open the way for the pair to 1.1, and failure will allow it to develop consolidation in the range of 1.113-1.1265.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 30, 2019

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Overview: The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6571. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6571 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor resistance today. Since the trend is below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. However, the resistance is seen at the level of 0.6571. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, resistance will be found at the level of 0.6571 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6500. If the trend breaks the first supprt at 0.6500, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the levels 0.6469 and 0.6424.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 30, 2019

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Overview:

The pivot point: 1.3457.

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3457. The pair rose from the level of 1.3457 (the level of 1.3457 coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3505. But it rebounded from the top pf 1.3505 to 1.3477. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3457 followed by 1.3425, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3457. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3505 and 1.3457; for that we expect a range of 48 pips (1.3505 - 1.3457). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3505. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3505, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at the levels of 1.3532 and 1.3560. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3425.

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GBP/USD: plan for the US session on May 30. The pound remains in a narrow channel and is waiting for political news

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

All attention is shifted to the election of the Prime Minister of Great Britain and to the candidates. In this regard, major players are not in a hurry to enter the market and change the situation. Buyers of the pound still need a return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2950, which will allow us to count on rapid growth to a maximum of 1.2696 and an update of the resistance of 1.2744, where I recommend fixing the profits. With a further decrease in the pound, you can open long positions on a false breakdown from a minimum of 1.2607 or a rebound from the support of 1.2564.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

As long as the trade will be conducted below the resistance of 1.2650, the pressure on the pound will remain, and the formation of a false breakdown will be a signal to sell the pound. The main task of the bears will be the support test of 1.2607, which may lead to the resumption of the downward trend and update the minimum of 1.2564, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the growth scenario is above 1.2650, you can return to the sales of the pound immediately on the rebound from the maximum of 1.2696.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a return of the pound sellers to the market.

Bollinger Bands

However, the main problem of a downward trend is low volatility, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the US session on May 30. Buyers of the euro must return to the level of 1.1143

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. Buyers still need to return to the resistance level of 1.1143, from which it will be possible to see an upward correction to the maximum area of 1.1170, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the afternoon, the focus will be shifted to statistics on the United States, namely, data on GDP. In case of good data, pressure on the euro may return. In this scenario, it is best to look for purchases after updating the minimum in the area of 1.1112, subject to the formation of a false breakdown, or to open long positions on the rebound from the new support of 1.1079.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

A false breakdown and a return below the resistance level of 1.1143, which the bears will try to do after the US data, will be a signal to open short positions in the euro. The main task for the second half of the day will be a test of a large support level of 1.1112, which will increase the pressure on the pair and will lead to an update of the minimum in the area of 1.1079, where I recommend fixing the profits. Under the scenario of growth of the euro above 1.1143, it is best to return to short positions in EUR/USD after updating the high of 1.1170 or to rebound from a larger level of 1.1196.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has dropped again sharply, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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The dollar strengthened, but the wind may soon be blowing in the opposite direction

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The trade war between Washington and Beijing continues to gain momentum, and investors are seriously concerned about the prospects for the global economy.

There are concerns that China may limit or even reduce exports to the United States of rare earth materials, which are essential components and are used for the production of almost all high-tech products.

If the Celestial Empire will play this card, then the American stock market will fall by 2-3%, pulling the major currencies. In this case, "aussies" and "kiwis" will suffer the most, while USD/JPY may fall to 108.

Morgan Stanley believes that the subsequent development of the US and Celestial trade war may trigger a slowdown in GDP growth in both countries, which markets will not be able to ignore.

"If the parties do not agree in the next three to four months, then the growth rate of the global economy will slow down by 1%, and the Fed will be forced to start lowering rates," Morgan Stanley noted.

It is assumed that the easing of the Fed's policy will put pressure on the US currency.

The dollar index continues to trade near two-year highs.

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Strategists of the Swiss Bank Julius Baer believe that the upward trend of the USD is coming to an end.

Bank experts see the potential for a reversal of the dollar, but advise investors to carefully choose against which currency to open a short position.

"The United States in terms of GDP dynamics are beginning to lose advantage over other countries and the growth of the world economy as a whole. However, the changes are heterogeneous, and we believe that the cyclical currencies, namely the Canadian dollar, the Brazilian real, the Norwegian and the Swedish krona, will benefit most in the second half of this year," said by the representatives of Julius Baer.

"We also see chances for a decline in the US dollar against the pound sterling, given the discount that is included in the latter due to the risks associated with Brexit. However, those who hope to improve the dynamics of EUR/USD are likely to be disappointed: the euro is not so cyclical, interest rates in the eurozone remain negative, while the economic situation in the region looks far from bright, and the prospects in the light of the trade war between Washington and Beijing are vague. Also, we do not expect a deterioration in the dynamics of the dollar against "aussie" and "kiwi"," they added.

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Rise after recession: oil quotes begin to rise

On Thursday, May 30, oil quotes begin to recover after a significant decline the day before. The collapse in oil prices was triggered by information about a possible reduction in the supply of rare earth metals in the US from China.

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The escalation of the trade war between both countries continues to grow and this is a cause for alarm to market participants. The current situation has led to significant fluctuations of quotations on the black gold market. On Wednesday, Brent crude quotes dropped to $67.75 per barrel and climbed to $69.62 a barrel today. The cost of WTI light crude dropped on Wednesday to $59.07 per barrel.

According to analysts, WTI prices have fallen below $57 per barrel for the first time since March of this year. The reason for this was the information about the potential reduction in the supply of rare-earth elements from China to the US military and energy industries. In the future, WTI quotes won back the lion's share of intraday losses and rose to $59.08 a barrel.

At present, investors fear increased foreign trade tensions, which are putting pressure on the growth rate of the global economy and relative to the oil demand. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), black gold reserves in the United States have decreased by 5.27 million barrels over the past week. Despite this, experts are counting on the upward trend in the oil market.

The situation is exacerbated by current geopolitical instability. American authorities recently indicted Tehran, suspecting the Islamic Republic of participating in sabotage with oil tankers in the UAE. Iranian authorities have denied these allegations but tensions on the world stage continue.

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Investors are waiting for US GDP data: We assume that the movement is possible to continue in the range of the EUR/USD pair

Investors are waiting for US GDP data. We assume that growth movement will be possible to continue in the range of the EUR/USD and AUD/USD pairs.

Today, the market will focus on the publication of US GDP data for the first quarter. It is assumed that it will decline in growth to 3.1% from 3.2% in quarterly terms. This is a slight decrease, in which the market is still perceived as acceptable if the forecast is confirmed.

However, if the values turn out to be lower, this should have a noticeable effect on the market.

On the one hand, investors may conclude that the process of slowing the growth of the American economy may force the Fed to lower interest rates this year. This may be the reason for local growth in stock markets and the weakening of the US dollar. On the other hand, this may serve as the basis for the markets to fear that the escalation of the trade and political conflict between Washington and Beijing will strike America at an increase in import prices, which will spur inflation and the Fed will not take any action to raise rates again. In this case, the dollar will continue to receive significant support not only as a safe haven currency but also because of the rising expectations of a rate hike.

In addition to GDP data this week, the base personal consumption index (RFE) values in the United States will also be important on Friday. On an annualized basis, it is expected to maintain a growth rate of 1.6%, but its April value will rise sharply by 0.2% immediately from the March zero mark. It is also expected that the income of Americans rose last month by 0.3% against a 0.1% increase in March, although expenses dropped to 0.2% from 0.9%.

Assessing the possible reaction of the market, we believe that today's output of GDP in America as part of the forecast can support the demand for shares of American companies. The dynamics of the dollar is likely to be restrained but tomorrow it may receive more noticeable support on the positive data of the base index for personal consumption (RFE).

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is under pressure with strengthening the US dollar position as a result on the one hand and expectations of a possible expansion of incentives from the ECB following its meeting in June on the other hand. Today, the pair can grow as well as fall on the wave of outgoing data from the United States. If they turn out to be strong, the pair may fall to 1.1100. However, if it is weaker than the forecast, then it will grow to 1.1215 after crossing the 1.1155 mark.

The AUD/USD pair is below the strong resistance level of 0.6935, which if overcome will lead to local growth of the pair to 0.6965.

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Overview of GBP/USD on May 30. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". Jean-Claude Juncker: there will be no new negotiations

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -100.8717

The pound continues to fall quite calmly against the US dollar, as the fundamental background for this currency remains extremely unfavorable. In principle, the main issue now is not "who will be the new Prime Minister", but "what will end the Brexit procedure in the end". Recall that Theresa May will resign on June 7, and after this date, a new Prime Minister should be elected within a week. There are more than 10 candidates for this position, and some of them have already promised to resume negotiations with the European Union if they are elected to the post of Prime Minister. The implication is that these politicians promise to negotiate better terms on the "deal" with the EU than the terms of Theresa May. However, the head of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker dispelled these hopes of politicians. He said that there would be no new negotiations with the UK on the "deal". What do we end up with? If we start from the information available at the moment, there will definitely be no new negotiations. Parliament is unlikely to approve the option of "deal", which is now available. Accordingly, London needs either to change the composition of the Parliament, or to submit this issue to a second referendum, or to abandon Brexit, or to leave the European Union without any agreements. Which of these four options is the least dangerous for the pound sterling? We believe that the rejection of Brexit, but it is also the least likely. The more likely option – the parliamentary elections because the new Parliament could approve Theresa May's "deal". Meanwhile, the fate of the pound remains in the hands of bears. Bulls do not have enough strength even to overcome the moving.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2634

R2 – 1.2695

R3 – 1.2756

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD continues to move down. Thus, it is now recommended to sell the pound sterling with a target of 1.2573, and hold the short positions until the turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top, which will indicate a correction turn.

Long positions are recommended to be considered only after the pair has been fixed above the moving average with targets at 1.2756 and 1.2817. However, at the moment, the bulls remain quite weak.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for May 30. The US stock market can sag because of the trade war with China.

EUR / USD

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Recently, the foreign exchange market faces a difficulty to focus on one news and work it out. There are too many different political, geopolitical and economic topics that attract attention to themselves, but they cannot be the course-forming for any couple. This is the EU's dissatisfaction with Italy's high state debt, and a decline in the US stock market, and a trade war with China, which can greatly affect the US stock market in a bad way. The latest news concerns the statements of the PRC saying that "you should not underestimate the ability of China to protect its interests and rights." It is easy to guess who this message was addressed to. Thus, we can talk about the continuation of the escalation of the trade conflict. Yesterday's trading in the EUR / USD pair ended in another 30 basis points, which is fully consistent with the current wave marking. Despite the fall in the stock market, the US dollar continues its interest in which the foreign exchange market serves as the most attractive tool.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro / dollar pair remains in the stage of building a downward trend. The signal from MACD was formed down, so I recommend to continue selling the euro with the targets of 1.1097 and 1.1045, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% in Fibonacci. I recommend placing a restrictive order above the Fibonacci level of 76.4%. An unsuccessful attempt to break through any of the target levels will indicate that the pair is ready to move away from the lows reached.

GBP / USD

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On May 29, the GBP / USD pair lost another 30 basis points. Thus, the estimated wave 3, in s continues to be built with targets located near the levels of 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci. The news background from the UK remains completely negative for the pound. That is why bears continue to dominate the market. The latest news from the UK reflects preparations for the election of a new prime minister, as well as a complete lack of understanding of what policy the new government will adhere to, especially if the parliament is re-elected. Both Theresa May, Jeremy Corbin and Boris Johnson already spoke about parliamentary re-elections. However, all this is only talk. There is no official information, and the markets react to zero promotion of all these vital issues by selling pounds sterling.

Sales targets:

1.2554 - 200.0% Fibonacci

1.2360 - 261.8% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument implies a continuation of the instrument decline within the framework of the supposed wave c. Thus, now I still recommend selling the pound with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2554 and 1.2360, which corresponds to 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci and with a restrictive order over the maximum of wave 2.

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The dollar loses momentum: EUR and GBP get a chance for corrective growth

The trade war between the US and China is beginning to take on a rather unexpected development. If until recently the United States was perceived as a stronger side of the conflict, which was reflected among other things in the growth of the dollar, now the situation begins to look a little different.

On May 29, the MSCI (Global Financial Flows Index) provider significantly increased the share of Chinese stocks in the index, which led to an increase in Asian stock indexes. Besides, China's Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission Chairman Guo Shuqing said that the trade war has a limited impact on the financial markets of China and its influence will be even less in the future.

The correlation between REER (real effective exchange rate) and MSCI makes it possible to point out an obvious link with the growth of the exchange rate and the state of stock indices. The start of the trade war between the United States and China was initiated by the Trump administration that led to an increase in global risks. As a result, the demand for the dollar increased.

Since January 2019, the dollar continued to strengthen while the MSCI index resumed growth.

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If the dollar continues to strengthen, then MSCI will also push up, which will look like a reduction in global risks and an increase in the attractiveness of investing in stocks and ETFs. This scenario is unlikely, as the world's largest central banks, express concern one after another about the growing global risks and alleviate financial conditions.

These changes show that the US position is not as strong as it seemed before. China's threat to ban the supply of rare earth metals to US companies in response to restrictions on the Chinese technology sector could be a serious problem for US industry.

The dollar is already far from being so confident, the risk of its weakening is growing. Dollar depreciation can begin in the near future across the entire spectrum of the market, both against commodity currencies and against defensive currencies. This expected decline is not yet perceived by markets as a global reversal and only as a correction so far. Yet, the dollar will weaken if the markets are set to predict that the Fed will cut rates this year.

EURUSD pair

On June 6, the ECB will hold a regular meeting on monetary policy issues, which is expected to consider the specific content of the TLTRO program.

On the eve of the May 29 meeting, the ECB published a report on financial stability, in which he expressed serious concern about the growing risks for economic growth both in the eurozone and around the world. Recognizing that the aggregate level of public debt declined slightly relative to a peak in 2014, the ECB notes that in some countries the budget deficit increases markedly, which is fraught with a resumption of growth rates in government borrowing.

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Negative effects of zero interest rates are also accumulating, which is reflected in the outpacing growth of capitalization of companies with low investment ratings.

The overall tone of the review suggests that the ECB is not considering scenarios for reducing rates and will focus all its efforts on targeted lending programs in the hub sectors of the economy. This gives markets a reason to expect a change in the yield spread in favor of the euro in light of the expected decline in the Fed rate this fall. In turn, this will delay capital outflow from the eurozone.

Another bullish factor for the euro is the possible appointment of a consistent opponent of soft monetary policy of the head of the Bundesbank, Weidman, to the post of head of the ECB.

The euro is held above the support zone of 1.1110/20 and is able to start corrective growth from current levels. The immediate goal is the zone of 1.1170/80 and to overcome it will allow us to count on growth to 1.1260/69.

GBP/USD pair

The resignation of Theresa May increases the risks of tough Brexit, but this is unlikely to change the position of Brussels. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. There will be no new negotiations, according to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Wednesday.

The pound came close to the support of 1.2602 but its breakthrough may turn out to be false since a high level of political uncertainty provides opportunities for any scenario. The trading range will most likely be found between the support of 1.2580 and 1.2602 and at the resistance of 1.2652 / 60 and further to 1.2685/90.

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Overview of EUR/USD on May 30. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". US GDP report for the first quarter may put more

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -126.9808

During the first three trading days of the week, the euro area and the US did not publish a single macroeconomic report, the European currency fell against the US currency by 75 points. It seems to be a little, but the bearish trend is visible to the naked eye and there is no doubt. We focus traders' attention on the fact that there is no news as such, which does not prevent the currency market from continuing to get rid of the euro. At the moment, the euro/dollar pair is literally 30 points to a year low. That is, it turns out that market participants are ready to continue to sell the euro, despite the proximity of the annual lows and the lack of macroeconomic reports. This is a strong trump card of the US currency. Today, by the way, quite an important report will finally be published. This is the US report on GDP for the first quarter, though only its preliminary value, and not the final one. However, the previous publication of preliminary values of the index of business activity has led to a fairly strong market reaction. The same reaction may follow today. According to experts' forecasts, GDP will grow in the first quarter of 2019 by 3.1% in annual terms. Any value above this will cause new purchases of the US dollar and sales of the euro. Thus, if there are no surprises, which also cannot be ruled out, as recent macroeconomic reports from overseas have frankly disappointed, the US dollar will continue its victorious pace.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1108

S2 – 1.1078

S3 – 1.1047

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1139

R2 – 1.1169

R3 – 1.1200

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its steady downward movement. Thus, now traders are advised to sell the euro with targets at 1.1108 and 1.1078 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns to the top.

It is recommended to consider buying orders for the euro/dollar pair only after fixing the price above the moving average with the first targets of 1.1200 and 1.1230 small lots.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placing trade orders (May 30)

For the last trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair again showed low volatility with 58 points. The movement was enough to reach the predicted value. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a coincidence of the previously set forecast, the downward inertial course remained on the market, bringing us closer to the values of 1.2600 / 1.2620. I congratulate everyone on the first piece of profit, but this is not the end. Considering the graph in general terms, we see that the clock oscillation is in full swing. The former corrective move went into oblivion, and a new tact in the form of a pulse led us to the local minimum of 1.2604 (May 23), which previously held us. You probably can already guess that all our attention is focused precisely on this value - 1.2604, or rather its breakdown, so that the tact "impulse" continues its march.

We turn to the informational and news background, and here we see that yesterday we had nothing in terms of the economic calendar, complete silence. But, in terms of the information background, the long-playing Brexit keeps us going. Yesterday, representatives of British business asked the ruling Conservative Party and candidates for its leadership not to allow Britain to leave the EU without an agreement. Recall that the possible leader of the race for the place of premiere ex-Foreign Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly stated the possibility of tough Brexit. In turn, Deputy Director of the Confederation of British Industry, Josh Hardy, believes that in these realities, the country's withdrawal from the EU without a deal is possible more than ever.

"Without a doubt, a dangerous exit scenario is possible without a deal now, as October approaches more likely than ever. Right now, companies spend, like throwing in a furnace, money to prepare for Brexit without an agreement, transferring business and accumulating stocks, but it would be much more rational to spend this money on productivity support in Britain, "says Josh Hardy.

Summarizing the information background and the general situation, we understand that clouds continue to thicken over the pound, and there is no gap yet.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we see that in most EU countries, Ascension Day of the Lord is celebrated. In the United States, they are waiting for the publication of a second estimate of GDP for the first quarter, where, according to estimates, economic growth rates may decline to 3.1%. At the same time, data on applications for unemployment benefits will be published in the United States, where a reduction of applications by 10 thousand is expected.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quote has dramatically slowed downward movement in the range of 1.2600-1.2620, forming a primary pullback. It is likely to assume further take over the limits of these values, where traders have two tactics at once: the first and the main one is working in the current "momentum" tact, waiting for a clear price fix lower than 1.2600 for laying short positions; The second tactic is considered in terms of the next bounce from the level of 1.2620, where entry positions are considered higher than 1.2670. There is also a third proposition whereas it is prone to a temporary bump around 1.2600-1.2670, expressing a certain regrouping of trading forces before further decline.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short-term perspective have changed from a descending plan to an upward one at the expense of the current foothold and as a fact of a rebound. Intraday and mid-term prospects both maintain a downward interest against the general market background.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(May 30 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 19 points. Now, everything depends on the behavior of the quotes. As in the case of stagnation within the level, we will keep low volatility, but if the inertial course continues, there will be a completely different picture.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700.

Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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USDCAD: the policy of the Central Bank of Canada will remain quite soft

Quite soft statements of the Bank of Canada in relation to monetary policy led to a decrease in the Canadian dollar against the US dollar in trading on Wednesday, May 29.

The decision of the Canadian regulator on interest rates was highly anticipated, as were statements related to future monetary policy.

According to the data, the Bank of Canada left the target value of the one-day interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, saying that the policy of the Central Bank is still dependent on the incoming data. The focus will be on household expenditure and trade data.

As for interest rates, economists believe that the degree of stimulation through monetary policy remains appropriate, and this directly indicates the preservation of current rates at the same level for a long time.

The report also contains good news. The Bank of Canada expects economic growth to accelerate in the 2nd quarter of this year, and recent economic data reinforced the view that the economic slowdown was temporary. It is also expected that consumption and exports will grow in the 2nd quarter, and the energy sector will begin to recover.

The report indicates the risks that may affect the growth potential of the Canadian economy. The regulator is concerned about the problems associated with international trade, which has recently become more. The escalation of trade conflicts further increases the uncertainty of prospects. China's trade restrictions alone have a direct impact on Canadian exports, which slows economic growth.

As for the data on the US economy, in the second half of the day, attention was drawn to the report on the index of manufacturing activity in the area of responsibility of the Fed of the Atlantic region of the United States. According to the report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, the composite Fed-Richmond manufacturing index in May 2019 rose to 5 points from 3 points in April. In March, the index was 10 points. Economists had expected the index in May to be 5.5 points. It is important that the surveyed companies noted that they remain optimistic about the growth of costs and conditions for business.

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The New Zealand dollar strengthened its position against the US dollar after the publication of the budget report. For example, the government of New Zealand expects the budget to remain in good shape and forecast its surplus of $6.1 billion New Zealand dollars in the years 2022-23. It is also expected that GDP growth in the next four years will average of 2.6%.

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Burning forecast EURUSD 05/30/2019

The main topic for the market gradually became the issue of trade wars. The US-China trade war remains in force, but the negotiations have virtually stopped. In addition, the largest business media write about the possible resumption of the US-EU trade war. There is no progress on tariffs for cars and other controversial issues.

The stock market responds with a decline, and the yields of the US government bonds have sharply decreased - to 2% per annum. Thus, large investors are shifted from stocks to bonds, not wanting to bear the risks of a falling market.

EURUSD: Under pressure from sellers.

The euro remains in a narrow range of 1.1220 - 1.1105, but an attempt to break down is likely.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1105

Alternative: We are ready to buy at the breakdown of 1.1220

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Bitcoin. Bitcoin is ready to break above 9000 USD

Given the technical picture, it is quite possible that buyers of Bitcoin will soon attempt to resume the growth of cryptocurrency in the area of 10000 USD As for the news, the statements of the representatives of the European Central Bank during the G20 summit, which discussed the scenarios for the implementation of cryptocurrency standards, were quite interesting. The European regulator concluded that the rules developed by the intergovernmental organization FATF related to cryptocurrency are suitable for supervision and monitoring and recommended the G20 countries to study them in more detail.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. Yesterday, buyers coped with the task of retaining the support level of 8480, which led to a gradual return of Bitcoin to the resistance area of 8900, a breakthrough that would bring the bull trend back to the market and lead to an update of the highs in the area of 9100 and 9300, where I recommend fixing the profits. Those who still believe in the correction and reduction of Bitcoin, you can wait for the updated minimum of 8120 and open long positions from there.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

Today, sellers need to try again to prevent the impulse of the resistance of 8900, which will be a clear signal to sell Bitcoin. However, the main task is to consolidate below the support of 8480, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a decrease in cryptocurrency in the support area of 8120 and 7646, where I recommend fixing the profits. In a growth scenario above 8900, it is best to return to short positions in Bitcoin on the rebound from the highs of 9100 and 9300.

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Trading plan for EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 05/30/2019

Never underestimate the power of inertia. It was this lesson that was presented yesterday against the background of complete silence from both politicians and macroeconomic statistics while the dollar continued rising. Understanding that the unpredictable consequences of an unregulated Brexit do not promise anything good continues to play into the hands of dead American presidents in portraits.

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Although almost no one works in Europe today on the occasion of the celebration of Ascension Day, the dollar is likely to be forced to take a hard look at macroeconomic statistics. After all, the second estimate of the United States GDP for the first quarter will be published today. If the first estimate showed an acceleration of economic growth from 3.0% to 3.2%, which investors have already included in the value of the dollar, the second estimate could reduce the growth rate to 3.1%. Of course, the American economy is still accelerating but investors proceeded from the fact that at a somewhat higher pace. Therefore, they will have to somewhat adjust their plans now. True, we should not think that mass sales of these portraits of the dead presidents of the United States of America will begin. Today, there are still data on applications for unemployment benefits. The total number of which should decrease by 10 thousand. Indeed, the number of initial applications may increase by 4 thousand, but the number of repeated applications should decrease by 14 thousand. Although this may all pass by the pound, over which Brexit's Damocles sword is brought. Obviously, the consequences of a divorce without a divorce agreement will be much more serious for the UK than for a European hostel.

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The euro/dollar currency pair resumed its decline, reaching yesterday's value of 1.1124. It is likely that the quotation is already nearing the point of the earlier support, where it is possible to expect stagnation followed by a rollback to 1.1150.

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The pound/dollar currency pair has once again become close to the level of 1.2620, where the quote has repeatedly felt the fulcrum. We can assume a temporary stay to 1.2600-1.2630 followed by a rollback to 1.2660.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review as of May 30, 2019 for the EUR / USD and GBP / USD currency pairs

On Wednesday, the market in both currencies was moving down.

The pair GBP / USD, while moving down, could not reach the lower fractal of 1.2605.

The EUR / USD pair, while moving down, tested the pullback level of 76.4% - 1.1134 (yellow dotted line). However, it did not go lower.

On Thursday, strong calendar news comes out at 12.30, 14.00, 15.00 (USD) Universal Time

Trend analysis (Fig. 1)

Today, the price will continue to move down with the first goal of 1.1108 - the lower fractal.

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Fig. 2 (daily schedule)

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, we are waiting for the start of the upward movement, but this will most likely to occur after testing the lower fractal of 1.2605, and before that - the lower movement. The first upper target of 1.2688 is the pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line).

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EURUSD: USD to extend gains? May 30, 2019

The greenback maintains strength while the euro continues its downtrading. The US is expected to sustain momentum further in the coming days.

Eurozone economy is going through hard times in the year 2019. Some economists think that it is unlikely to recover soon. The setbacks for the economy include vulnerabilities from real estate bubbles to high government debt and Brexit. The European Commission recently wrote to the Italian Government asking it to explain the deterioration in the country's public finances. The procedural move was exceptionally delayed until after last week's EU elections, where Salvini's League emerged as a big winner, although eurosceptic forces remain a minority in the new European Parliament. If Italy does not provide by Friday sufficient explanation for its growing debt or accepts that it must limit its spending plans this year, the Commission is likely to formally launch disciplinary steps next week.

Brexit uncertainties are still sustained. Some financial institutions are quite confident about the possibility of Brexit no-deal result. Whether these risks rise further depends on the outcome of the race to succeed May, with some analysts seeing no-deal proponents emboldened by the Brexit party's strong showing at last week's EU parliament election.

The European Central Bank still has its sights set on a return to normal monetary policy, but the task has become far harder over the past year. An economic slowdown in late 2018 has dampened the euro-zone outlook for this year and forced the ECB to say it'll keep interest rates at record lows until at least 2020. ECB policymakers said they had become less confident in predictions for an economic upturn in the second half of the year, and that declining inflation expectations were a worry. Data since then has been mixed as figures this week showed euro-zone confidence unexpectedly rising, but German unemployment climbing for the first time in almost two years. Today Euro momentum is expected to be slower due to holidays being observed due to Ascension Day.

The US dollar is pressurized by the trade war tensions with China and other countries like Japan, Canada, and Mexico. The US central bank has paused rate increases this year amid mixed signals on the strength of the nation's economy. The unemployment rate is at a 49-year low but inflation is running under the Fed's 2% target. Recently, Investors jumped back in to the US stock market for the first time since mid-April by sending roughly $3.7 billion into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that hold domestic equities last week. The net inflows into US stock funds ended a four-week retreat from the domestic equity market that pulled a net total of roughly $32 billion out of the category. For the year to date, investors have taken a net of $35.8 billion out of funds that hold US stocks.

Trade tensions between the US and China escalated sharply earlier this month after the Trump administration accused China of having "reneged" on its previous promises to make structural changes to its economic practices. The US later slapped additional tariffs of up to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to retaliate.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price managed to sustain the bearish momentum after rejecting off the 1.1200 area again. After the bearish slowdown, the price is expected to pullback higher towards 1.1150 i.e. the dynamic level of 20 EMA resistance before its slowdown . As the price remains below the 1.1300 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on May 30. What to do with the pound, no one knows

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

All attention is shifted to the election of the Prime Minister of Great Britain and to the candidates. In this regard, major players are not in a hurry to enter the market and change the situation. Today, in the first half of the day, a return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2950 are required, which will allow us to count on a quick return to a maximum of 1.2696 and an update of the resistance of 1.2744, where I recommend fixing the profits. With a further decrease in the pound, you can open long positions on a false breakdown from a minimum of 1.2607 or a rebound from the support of 1.2564.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

As long as trading will be below the resistance of 1.2650, the pressure on the pound will remain, and the formation of a false breakdown in the first half of the day will be a signal to sell the pound. The main task of the bears will be the support test of 1.2607, which may lead to the resumption of the downward trend and update the minimum of 1.2564, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the growth scenario is above 1.2650 in the morning, you can return to the sales of the pound immediately on the rebound from the maximum of 1.2696.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible return to the market of large sellers.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility is very low, which does not give signals for entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 30. All attention to data on US GDP for the 1st quarter

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Buyers need to return to the resistance level of 1.1143 today, from which it will be possible to see an upward correction to the maximum area of 1.1170, where I recommend fixing the profits. Given the weak fundamental statistics on the eurozone, which was published during this week, it is best to look for purchases after updating the minimum in the area of 1.1112, subject to the formation of a false breakdown, or to open long positions on the rebound from the new low of 1.1079.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The release of important fundamental data in the first half of the day for the euro area is not planned, so the entire emphasis will be placed on the report on the growth of the US economy in the 1st quarter of this year. A false breakdown and a return below the resistance level of 1.1143 will be a signal to open short positions in the euro, and the main task for the first half of the day will be a test of a large support level of 1.1112, which will increase the pressure on the pair and will lead to an update of the minimum in the area of 1.1079, where I recommend fixing the profits. Under the scenario of the growth of the euro above 1.1143, it is best to return to short positions in EUR/USD after updating the high of 1.1170 or to rebound from a larger level of 1.1196.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a further decline in EUR/USD in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of the growth of the euro in the first half of the day, the upward trend may be limited by the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1153.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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GOLD to continue pushing lower again? May 30, 2019

Gold has been extremely volatile and corrective recently residing above $1276 area with a daily close. Though the price has been expected to rise to new highs.

Despite the US-China trade tensions, gold as safe heaven has suddenly dived down. This drop slightly hammered the market sentiment. Now, it's quite hard to discern any signals for spot gold as it failed twice to break a resistance at $1,287 per ounce. However, gold seems to have found a base around $1,270. Hedge funds and money managers sharply reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold in the latest week.

Investors have increasingly looked for safe havens in recent days. The CBOE Volatility Index, a gauge of the fear factor in markets, hit a two-week high on Wednesday amid reports that Beijing was preparing to limit the export of rare earth elements in its attempt to strike back at the US. The rare earth elements include a group of 17 chemical elements used in everything from high-tech consumer electronics to military equipment.

Trade tensions between the US and China escalated sharply earlier this month after the Trump administration accused China of having "reneged" on its previous promises to make structural changes to its economic practices. U.S. later slapped additional tariffs of up to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to retaliate.

As of the current scenario, certain bearish pressure observed recently. Throwback of the price towards $1276 again is currently expected to inch up after getting stuck in the support area between $1265 to $1276 in the coming days. Though the overall price action is volatile and corrective being above the strong psychological level. It is expected to push higher towards $1300 again.

SUPPORT: 1265, 1276

RESISTANCE: 1290, 1300

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 30.05.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The full retreat on the EUR/USD pair continues as the price almost hit the key short-term technical support located at the level of 1.1105. All the gains from the last week are almost erased and now the key question is whether the bears will break back under the level or 1.1100 or the price will bounce again? The current technical pattern is very similar to the Diagonal pattern on the larger timefres, so the price might be getting ready to break put of the Diagonal as well. Moreover, the down trend is still present on the larger timeframes and there are no signs of downtrend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1355

WR2 - 1.2080

WR1 - 1.1254

Weekly Pivot - 1.1180

WS1 - 1.1146

WS2 - 1.1076

WS3 - 1.1043

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to sell the up move near the technical resistance around the level of 1.1174. All the open sell orders should set the take profit at the level of 1.1111. The larger timeframe trend is still down, so the trade at the short term timeframe will be in line with the downtrend.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 30.05.2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has moved lower as anticipated and almost tested the technical support at the level of 1.2605 before a small bounce was made. The momentum is weak and negative, so the short-term outlook remains bearish. The volatility is getting low, but the bearish pressure is visible. The larger timeframe trend remains down and new lows are anticipated as there are no signs of trend reversal yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3009

WR2 - 1.2910

WR1 - 1.2801

Weekly Pivot - 1.2631

WS1 - 1.2607

WS2 - 1.2502

WS3 - 1.2401

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to sell the up move near the technical resistance around the level of 1.2755. The larger timeframe trend is still down, so the trade at the short term timeframe will be in line with the downtrend.

analytics5cef68fd6dc3a.jpg

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 30.05.2019

Crypto Industry News:

Another global corporation: AT & T, decided to accept payments in cryptocurrencies. Customers can pay bills using BitPay, which offers two main cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.

AT & T is one of the largest telecommunications companies in the world. The company is listed on the NYSE Stock Exchange. AT & T was founded on March 3, 1885,to create a nationwide telephone network.

AT & T has been the world's largest telephone services provider and the largest cable television network for some time. In his laboratories (Bell Labs), among others, Unix operating system, programming languages: C, C ++ and AWK, as well as an transistor. Eleven employees of this corporation received the Nobel Prize.

Acceptance of cryptocurrencies by such a large company as AT & T with many years of tradition is a clear sign that the need for cryptocurrency adoption has recently grown significantly.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has broken out of the consolidation and made another higher high at the level of $285 at the time of writing the article. According to the Elliott Wave point of view, this is the wave (5) to the upside and the target is seen at the level of $304. The level of $263.42 is now the key short-term technical support for bulls and any breakout below this support will indicate the top is in place.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $321.20

WR2 - $292.77

WR1 - $283.99

Weekly Pivot - $254.33

WS1 - $241.65

WS2 - $213.82

WS3 - $203.55

Trading Recommendations:

The best trading strategy in the current market conditions is to buy the local pull-back as wave 4 is in progress in anticipation of the wave 5 to the upside. On the other hand, any violation of the level of $226.17 will accelerate the sell-off towards the next technical support at the level of $212.12.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for May 30, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1140/50 levels yesterday, enabling profit booking on the short positions taken around 1.1200/10 levels earlier. If the entire chart from 1.1111 lows is analyzed, there is no trend seen. it is just a sideways movement. Hence, the significance of support and resistance should be taken into consideration. Prices have approached its support zone around 1.1100/20 levels as seen on the chart view. Furthermore, it can be observed that the backside of immediate trend line resistance provides support. If this zone holds, bulls are expected to drag prices higher towards the resistance zone through 1.1250/60 levels soon. Please note that a consolidation structure has to be treated with support and resistance and traded accordingly until major support or resistance is broken. More conservative trading approach could be to remain flat and trade on a breakout on either side. Interim support is around 1.1100 levels, while resistance is at 1.1260 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders go long with stop just below 1.1100, target 1.1260.

Conservative traders remain flat.

Good luck

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on May 30, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The fourth day of the Australian dollar is consolidating below the embedded line of the price channel on a daily scale chart. The Marlin oscillator signal line continues to move upward on the daily chart and it moves to further to the growth zone on the four-hour chart. Fixing the price above the May 27 maximum at 0.6940 may develop movement towards the MACD daily chart with a target of 0.7000. However, this scenario may not be fully fulfilled due to a sufficiently high goal against the background of the strengthening of the American dollar.

Leaving prices below the MACD line on a four-hour chart (0.6900) opens the way to a medium-term decline with the first goal of 0.6815,, which was the nested line of the downward daily price channel.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 30.05.2019

Crypto Industry News:

The police in Russia arrested the alleged creator of the crypto-pyramid program from Kazakhstan, which faced an international arrest warrant, the Russian Ministry of the Interior (MOI). The unnamed detainee is supposedly accused of cheating investors through a scam associated with cryptocurrencies, which promised high profits from cryptographic investments.

The Ministry of the Interior reported at least 300 cases of fraud allegedly related to the pyramid, and one of the investors reportedly suffered a loss of about 14 million Kazakh tenge ($ 36,700) to criminals.

According to the report, the intruder escaped from Kazakhstan in early 2019 and has since been recognized as wanted by Interpol. After being arrested by the Russian police, the alleged offender admitted that he illegally crossed the border in Russia riding a horse. Currently, the authorities are solving the issue of criminal extradition to Kazakhstan, according to the Ministry of the Interior.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission initiated court proceedings against a California resident for allegedly running a multi-million dollar cryptocurrency pyramid program. Earlier in May, the Brazilian police arrested ten people suspected of running a $ 210 million crypto-currency pyramid.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair is still trading in a narrow zone between the levels of $8,919 - $8,621, but the Pin Bar like candle in for of a hammer was made at the level of $8,427, so the bulls are fighting for higher prices. According to the present Elliott Wave scenario, this is the consolidation during the wave 4 of the overall wave progression. It means there is still one more wave to the upside to be made, wave 5. There is a short-term trend line dynamic resistance provided around the level of $8,800, so it will be another hurdle for bulls to break through. On the shorter timeframes, please keep an eye at the level of $8,241 as any violation of this level will invalidate the current impulsive scenario. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10467

WR2 - $9524

WR1 - $9190

Weekly Pivot - $8239

WS1 - $7860

WS2 - $6970

WS3 - $6557

Trading Recommendations:

The best trading strategy in the current market conditions is to buy the local pull-back as wave 4 is in progress in anticipation of the wave 5 to the upside. Please pay attention to the technical support at the level of $8,241 as any breakout below this level invalidated the impulsive scenario.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on May 30, 2019

On Wednesday, the euro fell by 29 points due to the complication of trade relations between the US and China and the increased pressure of the EU on Italy in connection with its violation of financial discipline. Italy faces a fine of 3 billion euros.

On the daily chart, the price fixed below the Fibonacci level of 110.0%. On the four-hour chart, the price decreases below the indicator lines of the balance and the MACD. Now, the euro has only one way – a decline to the Fibonacci level of 123.6% at the price of 1.1075 and further to the level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0985.

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Today is a day off in Germany, France, and Switzerland. In the evening, there will be data on US GDP for the 1st quarter in the 2nd assessment, the forecast of 3.1% against 3.2% earlier. But despite the formally revised figure down (if it turns out to be), then the dollar will be able to continue strengthening on the factor of the excellent indicator that was not worked out at the time, in the 1st assessment itself, as well as an increase of 3.1% – this is also an excellent indicator.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on May 30, 2019

GBP/USD

Under the overall pressure of the dollar, the British pound overcame the support of 1.2660 (at least August 15, 2018) yesterday and is now ready for further decline. On the four-hour chart, the price once again touched the MACD line, and resolutely went down, fixing itself under both indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator on H4 is developing in the area of reducing trends.

There are two goals in front of the price: 1.2530 – minimum on December 14, 2018, and 1.2388 – support of the price channel line of the weekly timeframe.

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USD/CHF approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Price is approaching our first resistance level.

Entry : 1.0096

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.0125

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.9973

Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support

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