Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 17, 2020. The virus is not slowing down. The US market collapsed by another 12%.

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Above is the chart for the monthly index fund, which is tightly linked to the price of the S&P 500 index. You can clearly see that during the month of February-March 2020, the index declined by about 30%, signalling that we are already in a crisis in the market.

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Oil is stuck below $ 30 / barrel. Because of the emergency market support organized by the Fed (the rate was lowered by 1%, and a liquidity of $700 billion will be injected), US indices dropped by about 12% yesterday. Today, although they are showing a willingness to rebound, it is not much, only by about 4%.

All this is due to the coronavirus pandemic not losing its rate of spread.

News for the morning of March 17:

As of the moment, 183 thousand are infected. There is an increase of more than 10% per day.

Italy - has 2,8000 patients. Cases increase by 10% per day.

Spain - has 10,000 patients

Germany - has 7,300 patients

France - has 6,600 patients

Iran - has 15,000 patients

USA - has 4,600 patients

Europe is under quarantine and has closed all its borders.

Canada also closed its borders.

In Russia, schools in Moscow are closed on Saturday, and mass events are prohibited.

The forecast is still the same: As long as the rate of the spread of the virus does not fall below 10% per day, the pandemic will rule the markets.

The first negative economic report: the New York business activity index came out as -12.

Today's US retail sales report: it is quite clear that car sales will fall.

EUR/USD: the euro is consolidating.

Sell from 1.1053.

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Trader's diary for March 17th. Markets to pause after slump

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On March 17th, the Russian ruble is not showing any dynamic after a sharp drop against the US dollar and the euro.

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Market participants are really surprised by a 12% slump in the US stock market that occurred on March 16th.

In fact, 7 or 8 days of such a dynamic can totally destroy the US economy.

However, it is obvious that such a strong economy cannot show deep falls every day.

Analyst expect a consolidation period. Market will learn and estimate information.

G7 leaders met Monday using video conferencing software. "By acting together, we will work to resolve the health and economic risks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and set the stage for a strong recovery of strong, sustainable economic growth and prosperity," the group of leaders said.

EUR/USD:

Sell positions can be opened from 1.1053.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on March 17, 2020

USD/JPY

On Monday, following the fall of the US stock market by 11.98%(!), the USD/JPY dropped 205 points. The technical reversal occurred from the embedded line of the price channel. This morning, the price tested the lower line of the price channel from below and with the support of the Marlin oscillator, which is declining in the negative trend zone, it is heading deeper down.

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On the four-hour chart, the price develops above the balance indicator lines (red) and the MACD (blue). The Marlin oscillator is close to the boundary with the territory of the bears, but has not yet penetrated it. The nearest support is the MACD line on the 104.70 level. Breaking the support opens the target of 102.88 on the embedded line of the price channel (daily).

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If the price is consolidated above the high of today's Asian session (above 107.30), which automatically means that the price goes above the price channel line on the daily chart, it can launch another round of growth to the MACD line on the daily scale – 109.05. The probability of such a scenario is 17-20%.

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Analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD for March 17. Panic does not leave the markets. China "adds fuel to the fire" with its statistics

EUR/USD

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On March 16, the EUR/USD pair gained 65 basis points after an unsuccessful attempt to break the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Thus, there is more and more reason to complete the construction of wave 2. If this is true, then the increase in the quotes of the instrument will continue with the goals located near the 15th figure and higher. But a successful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level will indicate that the markets are ready for further sales of the instrument, which, accordingly, will lead to a complication of wave 2 and the entire section of the trend that begins on February 20.

Fundamental component:

There was no news background for the EUR/USD instrument on March 16. Nevertheless, another batch of news about the spread of coronavirus around the world led to the fact that stock indices in America continued to collapse, oil prices continued to collapse, and even more countries in the world resorted to measures of full and total quarantine, closing borders. All this, of course, does not help calm the markets at all. And if the markets do not calm down, then every day we can expect new collapses and falls. Accordingly, the overall situation in the markets does not change. Yesterday, several important reports were also released in China. You may ask: what does China have to do with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments? In fact, the impact is quite weak. However, it was China that showed what to expect from economic reports in the eurozone and America during April and the following months. Let me remind you that the pandemic began in China and developed there in the first place. So it was the reports from China that were supposed to show how much the infection and subsequent government quarantine measures affected the economy. Industrial production in China fell by 13.5% in February and retail sales - by 20.5%. We can expect approximately the same figures from economic statistics from America and the European Union for the end of March. This is unlikely to cause additional demand for a particular currency since the decline will be synchronous. However, the decline may be higher in some places and lower in others. So, in any case, you need to prepare for the worst.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair presumably continues to build an ascending section. Based on the current wave layout, waves 1 and 2 have completed their construction. Thus, if it were not for the panic state of the market, I would recommend starting buying the euro currency in the expectation of building a wave 3 of the upward trend section with goals located around 15 figures and higher. However, in the current conditions, I believe that first of all, market participants should be careful.

GBP/USD

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The GBP/USD pair lost another 25 basis points on March 16, although the trading amplitude was much stronger during the day. Thus, the assumed wave E continues its construction with targets located near the 100.0% level. If this is true, then an unsuccessful attempt to break this level will lead to the departure of quotes from the reached lows, and, possibly, to the completion of the construction of the entire downward section of the trend. Despite the panic state of the market, which is particularly well manifested in the pound/dollar instrument, the British can't go down forever.

Fundamental component:

There was no news background for the GBP/USD instrument on Monday. But today in the UK there will be reports on unemployment, applications for unemployment benefits, as well as on changes in the level of average wages. In addition, data on industrial production and retail sales will be released in America. So, there will be at least 5 fairly important reports during the day. However, all of them can be ignored by the markets. As for the pound, completely different factors are now in the first place. If the euro builds corrective waves from time to time, the British simply falls down. And it is unlikely that this decline will be stopped by far from the most significant news from Britain and the US.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound/dollar tool continues to complicate the current wave markup. Thus, I still do not recommend trading now, as the situation in the markets is very unstable. After completing the construction of wave E, using the MACD signal "up", it will be possible to consider the possibilities of buying the instrument, however, the main problem now is that it will be very difficult to determine the completion of both wave E and the entire downward trend section.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of March 17

Hello, colleagues.

For the Euro/Dollar pair, the price is in the correction zone from the downward cycle, and we expect further development of the movement after the breakdown of 1.1065. For the Pound/Dollar pair, we expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.2227-1.2174 and the level of 1.2543 is the key support. For the Dollar/Franc pair, we follow the upward structure from March 9 and the level of 0.9570 is the key resistance. For the Dollar/Yen pair, we follow the upward structure from March 9; the level of 108.00 is the key resistance and the level of 105.02 is the key support. For the Euro/Yen pair, the price forms local initial conditions for the top of March 12; the level of 119.85 is the key resistance and the level of 117.11 is the key support. For the Pound/Yen pair, we expect the downward movement to continue after the breakdown of 128.47 and the level of 131.72 is the key support.

Forecast for March 17:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the H1 scale:

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For the Euro/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1259, 1.1207, 1.1166, 1.114, 1.1065, 1.0988, 1.0942, and 1.0851. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the downward cycle from March 9. A short-term downward movement and consolidation are expected in the range of 1.1114-1.1065 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.0988 and in the area of 1.0988-1.0942 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level 1.0851, and when this value is reached, we expect a pullback to the top.

We expect a short-term upward movement in the range of 1.1166-1.1207 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1259 and this level is the key support for the descending structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle from March 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1166 Take profit: 1.1205

Buy: 1.1208 Take profit: 1.1257

Sell: 1.1065 Take profit: 1.0990

Sell: 1.0986 Take profit: 1.0943

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For the Pound/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2664, 1.2543, 1.2448, 1.2227, 1.2174, and 1.2051. Here, we follow the development of the downward cycle from March 9. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.2227-1.2174. In this case, the potential target is 1.2051 and we expect a pullback to the correction after reaching this level.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.2448-1.2543 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2664 and this level is the key support for the descending structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle from March 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2448 Take profit: 1.2540

Buy: 1.2544 Take profit: 1.2664

Sell: 1.2174 Take profit: 1.2051

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Dollar/Franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9686, 0.9641, 0.9570, 0.9518, 0.9444, 0.9411, and 0.9355. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle from March 9. We expect short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation in the range of 0.9518-0.9570 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9641. A potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.9686, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a downward rollback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.9444-0.9411 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9355 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top from March 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9520 Take profit: 0.9568

Buy: 0.9572 Take profit: 0.9640

Sell: 0.9444 Take profit: 0.9412

Sell: 0.9408 Take profit: 0.9360

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For the Dollar/Yen pair, the key levels in the H1 scale are: 111.11, 110.31, 108.96, 108.00, 106.60, 105.97, and 105.02. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle from March 9. We expect the upward movement to continue after the breakdown of 108.00. In this case, the target is 108.96 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 108.96 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 110.31. We consider the level of 111.11 to be a potential value for the top and when this value is reached, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 106.60-105.97 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 105.02 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from March 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.00 Take profit: 108.92

Buy: 108.98 Take profit: 110.30

Sell: 106.60 Take profit: 106.00

Sell: 105.95 Take profit: 105.08

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For the Canadian dollar/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.4220, 1.4162, 1.4062, 1.4019, 1.3952, 1.3806, and 1.3896. Here, we follow the development of the local ascending structure from March 9. A short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.4019-1.4062 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.4162 and in the area of 1.4162-1.4220 is the price consolidation. We consider the level of 1.4220 as a potential value for the top, after which we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3952-1.3896 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3806 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local upward structure from March 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.4062 Take profit: 1.4160

Buy: 1.4164 Take profit: 1.4220

Sell: 1.3952 Take profit: 1.3897

Sell: 1.3894 Take profit: 1.3808

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For the Australian dollar/Dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.6390, 0.6326, 0.6229, 0.6098, 0.5997, and 0.5919. Here, we follow the development of the downward cycle from March 9. We expect the downward movement to continue after the breakdown of 0.6098. In this case, the target is 0.5997. We consider the level of 0.5919 as a potential value for the bottom, after which we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the correction.

We expect a correction after the breakdown of 0.6229. In this case, the target is 0.6326 and the potential value for the top is still considered the level of 0.6390, this value is the key support.

The main trend is the downward structure from March 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6230 Take profit: 0.6325

Buy: 0.6327 Take profit: 0.6390

Sell: 0.6096 Take profit: 0.6000

Sell: 0.5995 Take profit: 0.5920

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For the Euro/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.12, 122.21, 120.93, 119.85, 118.42, 117.92, 116.27, and 117.11. Here, we follow the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle from March 12. We expect the upward movement to continue after the breakdown of 119.85. In this case, the target is 120.93 and consolidation is near this level. A breakdown of the level of 120.95 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 122.21. We consider the level of 12312 as a potential value for the top, and when this value is reached, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 118.42-117.92 and breakdown of the last value will lead to a deeper correction. Here, the target is 117.11 and this level is the key support for the rising structure. Its passage at the price will lead to a movement to the first potential target of 116.27.

The main trend is the formation of local initial conditions for the upward cycle from March 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.85 Take profit: 120.90

Buy: 120.95 Take profit: 122.20

Sell: 177.88 Take profit: 117.20

Sell: 117.08 Take profit: 116.28

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For the Pound/Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 134.33, 132.71, 131.72, 130.92, 128.47, 127.54, 126.26, and 125.53. Here, we follow the local downward structure from March 13. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 128.47-127.54 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 126.26. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 125.53, after which we expect to go into a correction.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 130.92-131.72 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a deeper movement. Here, the target is 132.71 and this level is the key support for the downward trend.

The main trend is the formation of a local structure from March 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 130.92 Take profit: 131.70

Buy: 131.73 Take profit: 132.70

Sell: 128.45 Take profit: 127.60

Sell: 127.50 Take profit: 126.26

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GBP/USD trading plan for 03/17/2020 and trading recommendation

The unexpected decision of the Federal Reserve to once again reduce the refinancing rate, this time as much as from 1.25% to 0.25%, put the market in a stupor. Investors really don't know what to do or what to expect. After all, the decision was made not just over the weekend, but just three days before the regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. In this situation, there is nothing else to do but assume that the situation is so terrible that emergency measures must be taken immediately. It is clear that this further provokes panic. Investors do not yet understand what is happening. This is the reason why we see a stagnation in the pound, since the major players have not yet decided how to behave. On the other hand, the market was waiting for a reduction in the Fed's refinancing rate in any case. True, on a smaller scale, but still during a scheduled meeting. In addition, such a sharp step forces the Bank of England to reduce the refinancing rate on a much larger scale than previously stated. Consequently, the BoE can reduce the refinancing rate below 0.1%, which is declared the lower acceptable limit.

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However, today the pound has an opportunity to slightly grow, as in the UK itself, the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 3.8% to 3.7%. Combined with this, the fact that the growth rate of average wages should remain unchanged looks good. The only thing that can disappoint market participants is the increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits from 5.5 thousand to 24.0 thousand. In addition, employment could grow by 150 thousand against 180 thousand in the previous month. However, the increase in the number of applications, as well as the slowdown in employment growth amid a reduction in the unemployment rate, does not look so terrible.

Unemployment rate (UK):

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But if the British macroeconomic statistics can be called moderately optimistic, then the forecasts for the US are definitely negative. In particular, the growth rate of retail sales may slow from 4.4% to 2.7%, which will clearly disappoint many. After all, consumer activity is the main driving force of the American economy. In addition, data on industrial production will also be published, the rate of decline of which should slow down from -0.8% to -0.3%. So to call these data positive is even more perverse, since the decline is not going anywhere, and it has lasted for five consecutive months. And if the forecasts are confirmed, industrial production in the United States will decline for six straight months.

Industrial production (United States):

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In terms of technical analysis, we see a continuing downward interest, which managed to expand the quote by more than 800 points in a matter of a week. In fact, we received a breakout of several price levels at once, and the quote fell to the area of October 2019. The subsequent fluctuation occurred in the stagnation phase, where the quote focused on the 1.2200/1.2280 frame.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms, we see a recovery relative to the medium-term upward trend, where the development has already exceeded the 70% mark .

It is likely to assume that the temporary stagnation may be prolonged, and the existing oversold situation may lead to a technical pullback towards the 1.2350 mark. In the medium-term review plan, the top- down perspective is still a priority.

We will concretize all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions if the price is fixed above 1.2280, with the prospect of a move to 1.2350.

- We consider short positions if the price is fixed below 1.2200, with the prospect of a move to 1.2150.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we can see that the indicators of technical instruments indicates a move to sell due to a strong downward move, excluding minute intervals.

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EUR/CHF approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry:1.05536

Reason for Entry: 78% Fibonacci extension, 200% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.08209

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support

Stop Loss: 1.03901

Reason for Stop loss: 78% Fibonacci extension

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The Pressure Still High On EUR/USD

The pair is trading in the red and it seems determined to approach and reach the near-term support levels after the false breakout above the 1.1200 - 1.1215 resistance area. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1117, the next downside obstacle is seen at 1.1111.

We may see a larger drop if the price closes yesterday's gap up. The USD is driving the price as the USDX has managed to increase again. EUR/USD is trapped within a range, you should wait for a valid breakdown from this pattern before going long or short.

I really hope that we'll have a clear direction on EUR/USD after the US data is released later, the Retail Sales are expected to increase by 0.2%, while the Core Retail Sales could inch up by 0.1%. Industrial Production is expected to expand by 0.4%, the Capacity Utilization Rate could increase from 76.8% to 77.1%, while the Business Inventories could drop by 0.1%.

The EU Economic Summit, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, and the eurozone Economic Sentiment could have a high impact as well, some poor data could send EUR/USD towards fresh new lows.

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EUR/USD is moving sideways between the 38.2% and the 61.8% retracement levels, the price drops after it failed to reach the 1.1200 level again. I've said yesterday that we'll have a long opportunity if the price makes a valid breakout above the 1.1200 - 1.1215, above the PP (1.1216) and above the 38.2% retracement level.

I want to remind you that the bearish pressure is high as long as the price is traded within the descending pitchfork's body. Another lower low, a valid breakdown below the 61.8% level will confirm a further drop towards the S1 (1.0938) level and towards the median line (ml).

  • TRADING TIPS

You should be careful because the eurozone and the US data will drive the price today, a valid breakdown below the 61.8% will give us a chance to go short on this pair, while a valid breakout above the 1.1215, 38.2% and above the Pivot Point (1.1216) will confirm a bullish movement.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 17/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

While in most cryptocurrencies there has been a reduction in their market capitalization over the past month, the market collapse has caused stablecoins to climb in market capitalization rankings. Six stablecoins are currently among the 50 largest cryptographic resources in terms of capitalization.

The largest stablecoin in terms of size, Tether (USDT), is currently the fourth largest cryptocurrency with a market capitalization of $ 4.66 billion. Despite a total USDT market growth of only 0.5% in four weeks, Tether has climbed the ladder from seventh place in the capitalization ranking since February 15.

However, due to the sharp fall in the prices of the assets traded in USDT, the volume of Tether fell by 20% from 48 to 60 billion dollars in the same period.

The USD Coin Circle (USDC) has made significant progress over the past month, rising from 30th place with a capitalization of $ 430 million to take 17th place with a market capitalization of $ 601.5 million today.

Jeremy Allaire, co-founder and CEO of Circle, went on Twitter to celebrate a 40% increase in USDC capitalization over the past month, stating:

"USDC is growing rapidly in recent days, reaching a new ATH at $ 568 million in circulation. It is fascinating watching" escape to a safe place "on the macro cryptocurrency market, but also the demand for high-quality USD liquidity for markets. Although observing such collapsed markets is not it is so exciting, still satisfying, that this completely new, completely digital Blockchain-based monetary infrastructure works. "

Technical Market Overview:

The bears are in full control over the ETH/USD market and the pair keeps trading inside of the narrow horizontal range. The bulls, however, had managed to push the price back into the descending channel, but the technical resistance located at the level of $134.12 was too strong for the breakout. Currently, the market is trading around the level of $116, way below the level of $124.00 which is short-term technical resistance. The technical support is located at the level of $100.00. The last low was made at the level of $89.01 and might be soon visited again.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $312.98

WR2 - $261.92

WR1 - $190.92

Weekly Pivot - $137.43

WS1 - $68.38

WS2 - $14.40

WS3 - $1

Trading Recommendations:

All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 17/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

According to a press release, Microsoft's programmer, philanthropist and co-founder Bill Gates will leave the board of directors.

A 64-year-old business magnate founded Microsoft with Paul Allen in 1975. The company is certainly best known for its Windows operating system, which was released in 1985 and remains just as important today.

Microsoft announced at the end of 2019 the Blockchain token and data management service, which will be a new tool for users of its corporate Azure service. Sam Gates also recently supported a Blockchain security service for fintech companies in Africa and Asia called Crest, writing a check for $ 1.4 million earlier this month to help financial technology companies in these areas provide financial services to people without access to banking services.

Microsoft's release explains that Gates's departure from the council involves spending more time on his philanthropy and efforts to combat climate change.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has hit the level of $5,909 during the weekend, which was a key short-term technical resistance for the market. The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern was made at this level and the market reversed towards the level of $4,890. Since then the market is trading in a narrow range and still tries to bounce, but so far no avail. The momentum is still weak and negative, so bears might develop another wave down towards the technical support located at the level of $3,946 soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,242

WR2 - $10,225

WR1 - $8,024

Weekly Pivot - $5,824

WS1 - $3,603

WS2 - $1,606

WS3 - $10

Trading Recommendations:

All the Elliott Wave based impulsive wave scenarios have been invalidated due to the important levels violation. The fear of the coronavirus consequences is too strong to traders and it rules on the financial markets, so it is better to stay away from the trading platform until the dust settles. Trade safe.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 17/03/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has been trading around the level of 1.2206 as the coronavirus pandemic continues. The market has fallen out of the descending channel in extremely oversold conditions on the H4 timeframe, so some kind of bounce is possible. The overall corrective cycle had been very aggressive so far and the recent breakout from the main channel (marked in brown) does not look good for bulls. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.2411 and 1.2505. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2282 and in the case of a down move extension, the next support is located at the level of 1.2206.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3660

WR2 - 1.3418

WR1 - 1.2726

Weekly Pivot - 1.2493

WS1 - 1.1781

WS2 - 1.1553

WS3 - 1.0829

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up, so all downward market moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3512.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 17/03/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow horizontal range located between the levels of 1.1065 - 1.1210. The market conditions are oversold on the H4 timeframe with momentum oscillating around the neutral level. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1250 and with increasing momentum on this timeframe, the odds are high. The key technical support is located at the level of 1.1070. Please notice the trendline support around the level of 1.1065 (marked in black), which is the additional key support holding the bearish attacks.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1749

WR2 - 1.1625

WR1 - 1.1316

Weekly Pivot - 1.1171

WS1 - 1.0880

WS2 - 1.0735

WS3 - 1.0438

Trading Recommendations:

The downtrend was valid as long as it was terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated, so now all upward moves will not be treated as local corrections in the downtrend, but as a new uptrend. The Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larger timeframes like weekly has been completed and the EUR/USD is developing a new wave up.

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GOLD Drops On USD Strenght!

The gold price has extended the bearish momentum as the USD has managed to stay higher after the FED decision to cut the interest rate and to add a QE program. It has dropped as much as $1,451.15, registering a 6.14% drop in yesterday's session, but it has closed way above the $1,484 static support.

The price has opened with a gap down today, it is trading near the $1,484 downside obstacle. Rejection from this support area could signal a potential rebound on the short term. Gold remains under selling pressure, that's why we need to wait for a pattern that will validate another leg higher.

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Gold has ignored the inside sliding line (SL) of the descending pitchfork, I said in yesterday's analysis that the price could drop towards the median line (ML) if it stays below the $1,555 former support (support has turned into resistance).

You can notice that the price has reached the median line (ML) and the weekly S1 (1455) level, but it has closed much higher signaling that the demand remains high around the $1,484 level.

A rebound could appear if the yellow metal stabilizes above the $1,484 static support and if it stays away from the median line (ML). However, gold could drop further if the USDX resumes the upside movement and if it forces the dollar to appreciate versus the major currencies.

  • TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS

Gold is under selling pressure right now, I believe that only a consolidation here above the $1,484 level, or a rejection from this level could signal a potential rebound. The support is seen at the median line (ML) of the descending pitchfork and at the S1 ($1,455) level.

The price could come back down to pressure the mentioned support levels, another false breakdown, or a reversal pattern could signal a bullish momentum. The gold price is into an uptrend, but a valid breakdown below the S1 ($1,455) and below the median line (ML), another lower low, will validate a larger correction and a potential reversal.

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Instaforex Daily Analysis - 17th Mar 2020

Today we take a look at GBPUSD and how we can use Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci extensions, market momentum, trend lines and support/resistance to play this move.

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Short-term Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold

Gold price has broken through $1,500 and is now trading around the October 2019 levels where the latest rally started. Gold price in Ichimoku cloud terms remains in a weekly bullish trend, but in previous posts we have shown the warning signals and the indications of a pull back towards $1,500.

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Gold price is still above the Ichimoku cloud. Price has tested the Kumo this week as price broke down sharply after last week saw prices close below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. If selling pressures continue we might see a weak sell signal where the tenkan-sen crosses below the kijun-sen. If this is combined with a break of price below the cloud or inside the cloud, that would be bearish for Gold.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD bulls need to recapture 1.12

EURUSD is still holding above its recent low at 1.1094 and this is a good sign. However in the short-term bulls will need to show more signs of strength in order for the pair not to be in danger of breaking below 1.10 again.

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Red line - resistance trend line

Blue line -neckline resistance

Yellow rectangle - major short-term support

Blue triangles -possible inverted head and shoulders pattern

EURUSD reached the neckline resistance and got rejected at the short-term resistance of 1.1225. Bulls now face the red downward sloping resistance trend line and the blue neckline. Breaking above the 1.12-1.1225 resistance will open the way for a move towards 1.1285 and 1.1395. Support at 1.10-1.0990 is important. Breaking below it will put the recent major low at 1.1055 in danger.

Concluding, there are some bullish signs but trend remains bearish with major resistance just ahead. In order to confirm that a major short-term low is in, we should see EURUSD break above 1.12-1.1225 and this will turn short-term trend bullish again.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Coronavirus to push EUR/USD to 1.1055

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According to the 4-hour chart, the Fiber is still trading under selling pressure. This down movement is correlated with the coronavirus pandemic in the eurozone such the quarantine in Italy and lockouts of state borders in many EU countries. The risk aversion sentiment is to responsible for the overall downtrend of the pair which sank as deep as the level near the Liquidity Pool at 1.1055. It is going to hold there as long EUR/USD does not break out and closes above1.1237.

The overall bias of EUR/USD is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for March 17 - 2020

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EUR/GBP continued to move as expected into the target-zone between 0.9102 - 0.9141 (the high has been seen at 0.9150). We will now be looking for a break below minor support at 0.9025 as the first strong indication that wave B has peaked, while a break below resistance at 0.8978 confirms the peak of wave B and the onset of wave C to a low near 0.7500.

As long as minor resistance at 0.9025 is able to protect the downside, we could see a final spike above the 0.9150 peak but the potential upside from here should be very limited.

R3: 0.9221

R2: 0.9190

R1: 0.9150

Pivot: 0.9091

S1: 0.9063

S2: 0.9025

S3: 0.8976

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 0.9085 and has placed our stop at 0.9185.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD bouncing off support, potential for further rise!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.10546

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing low support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.13236

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.09482

Reason for Stop loss: 76.4% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for March 17 - 2020

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The global volatility and uncertainty due to the coronavirus continue to weigh on the financial markets. The major central banks have imposed financial aid packages and lowered interest rates.

GBP/JPY was pushed lower our ideal target at 131.12 at the 78.6% corrective target and dipped to a low of 128.88. We do believe this is an overreaction and we also see a clear loss of downside momentum indication that a bottom should be found soon. We need a break above 131.28 and more importantly, a break above resistance at 134.32 that confirms wave 2/ has completed and wave 3/ is in motion for an ultimate break above 147.97.

R3: 134.32

R2: 133.68

R1: 132.61

Pivot: 131.28

S1: 130.73

S2: 129.47

S3: 128.88

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 130.95 was hit for a small loss of 25 pips. We will re-buy GBP at 129.00 or upon a break above minor resistance at 131.28.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/GBP Price Movement For March 17, 2020

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On the 4 hour chart, EUR/GBP is moving in a market maker buy model pattern. It is likely to overcome the nearest liquidity pool at 0.9148 - 0.9150. As long as the CCI Indicators do not drop bellow the zero level and this pair does not retrace to 0.8985, it may grow to 0.9148 and to 0.9153-0.9158 before declining again.

The overall bias for EUR/GBP is bullish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY further drop to be expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 65.947

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline pullback resistance, 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement

Take Profit : 64.060

Reason for Take Profit: Graphical swing low

Stop Loss: 66.374

Reason for Stop loss: 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, Long term descending trendline resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY further drop to be expected!

analytics5e70534100f28.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 65.947

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline pullback resistance, 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement

Take Profit : 64.060

Reason for Take Profit: Graphical swing low

Stop Loss: 66.374

Reason for Stop loss: 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, Long term descending trendline resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com