Daily analysis of SILVER for August 27, 2015

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Overview

Silver prices closed yesterday's trading below 14.40 that confirmed a breakout of this level and opened the way to continue a bearish trend in the upcoming period, as our next targets are located at 13.55 followed by 12.80. Note that the current bearish wave is organized inside the bearish channel that we can see in the chart, supported by the EMA50. Take into consideration that breaching 14.85 followed by 15.50 will stop the expected bearish wave and push the price towards higher levels.

Silver price shows some slight bullish bias affected by stochastic positivity, as long as the price is moving below 14.84 and 15.50, our bearish scenario will remain valid and active waiting for a visit to the level of 13.55 and then 12.80 in the upcoming period.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for August 27, 2015

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Overview

GBP/JPY remains neutral for more sideway consolidations. So far, price actions starting from 195.86 are viewed as a consolidation pattern and we still expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 174.86 to 195.86 at 182.88 to move downside. However, a sustained breakout of 182.88 will bring the bearish scenario to life pushing the pair towards the key support level at 174.86.

On the other hand, the uptrend from 116.83 is still in progress and would target 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the 200 psychological level. Medium-term momentum is not too convincing with bearish divergence condition for the weekly MACD. We have to be cautious in the medium term topping around 200 awaiting a deep correction. Meanwhile, a break of 174.86 will suggest that the trend has reversed earlier than we expected.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.70; (P) 185.89; (R1) 187.63;

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 27, 2015

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USD/JPY is expected to rebound. The US stocks staged a powerful rebound overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring nearly 4% to 16285, the S&P 500 gaining 3.9% to 1940, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 4.2% to 4697. Crude slid 1.8% to $38.60 a barrel, gold dropped 1.3% to $1125 an ounce, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed further to 2.172% from 2.133% in the previous session. The US dollar countinued strengthening against other major currencies after the US government reported that durable manufactured goods orders increased 2% MoM in July (vs +0.1% expected) and revised June orders edged higher to post a 4.1% increase from 3.4%. EUR/USD fell as low as 1.1290, GBP/USD as low as 1.5450, and USD/JPY was up to 120.36. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains on the upside and well supported by both the 20- and 50-period intraday moving averages (MAs). The intraday RSI is well directed within a buying area between 50 and 70. As long as 118.95 holds as the key support level, a rebound of the pair to the first upside target at 120.70 (a resistance level formed before Aug. 24's plunge) is expected.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.70. A break of that target will push the pair further downwards towards 121.30. The pivot point stands at 118.95. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 118.20 and the second target at 117.

Resistance levels: 120.70 121.30 122.35 123

Support levels: 118.20 117 116.20

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 27, 2015

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair has broken major support at the level of 0.6589. Additionally, it should be noted that the price had opened below the major resistance this week. Moreover, the weekly pivot point calculated at 0.6497 this week and it is now approaching from it in order to test it. Therefore, it will probably start downside movement at this area and recover again. So, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity above the weekly pivot point (0.6497) for that it will be a good sign to sell at this spot with the first target at 0.6430 and continue towards 0.6366 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels). On other hand, if there a break takes place at 0.6595, it will be a good location for stop loss.

Notes:

  • The daily support will set at the level of 0.6366.
  • The major resistance is going to set at the 0.6589.
  • We saw an insignificant range of 62 pips yesterday because the volatility was not high. But, we expect a large range of 89 pips in coming hours.
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Gold analysis for August 27 , 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of $1,117.58. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a strong supply bar in a high volume. Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. Our support level at $1,125.00 is on the test. If the price breaks this support level, we will have the second support around the price of $1,111.00. In the background, we have a strong sign of weakness (supply came in), which is a sign that this can be a turning point in the mid-term prospect. According to today's price action in the H1 time frame, we saw that weakness has appeared.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,154.37

R2: 1,178.60

R3: 1,217.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,075.35

S2: 1,151.00

S3: 1,012.80

Trading recommendations: The strong sign of weakness is in the background. Watch only for selling opportunites after retracement.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 27, 2015

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair has opened below the weekly support one at the level of 1.1364. So, the strong resistance will be at the spot of 1.1364 today. You have to consider the price of 1.1118 which represents a strong support on August 27, 2015. Consequently, we expect a range about 110 pips in coming 48 hours. Therefore, the market will probably indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 1.1300 and the weekly pivot point will act as minor support around the area of 1.1263. Thus, according to the previous events, the price is going to move between the prices of 1.1350 and 1.1140. So the area above 1.1263 (below the weekly pivot point) looks for further downside with the first target at the 1.1180 level and continue towards 1.1137 in order to test the weekly support 1 tomorrow. Stop loss should be placed below the price of 1.1382.

Observations:

  • According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair will move between 1.1364 and 1.1137 today.
  • It should be noted that the level of 1.1118 represents the double bottom, and the weekly pivot point is placed at the price of 1.1263.
  • The resistance will be set at the level of 1.1364 this week.
  • The support has already been placed at the price of 1.1137.
  • We expect a new range about 520 pips this week.
  • The key level will be set at the level of 1.1260.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 27, 2015

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias above 0.9455. Currently trading at 0.9535, the pair remains supported by a rising trendline as well as its key intraday MAs. The RSI indicator is heading upwards, displaying strong bullish momentum. Furthermore, a strong support base around 0.9455 has been formed and should limit any downward attempts. Hence, above 0.9455, look for a new rise to 0.9550 & 0.9590 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9555 and the second target at 0.9590. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9410 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.93675. The pivot point is at 0.9455.

Resistance levels: 0.9555 0.9590 0.9645

Support levels: 0.9410 0.9375 0.9315

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 27, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving donwards. The price tested the level of 1.7404. The price has spiked 1,000 pips since our last analysis, but it created a strong sign of weakness and a big supply pressure in the background. In the daily time frame, we can observe supply in a high volume. Now, this is a strong sign of weakness. Consider only selling opportunities after retracement. Potential profit targets are 1.7330, 1.6930, and 1.6260. The intraday trend is downward. According to the M15 time frame, we did not get any strong demand bars (weak demand).

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7786

R2: 1.7877

R3: 1.8025

Support levels:

S1: 1.7490

S2: 1.7400

S3: 1.7250

Trading recommendations: Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 27, 2015

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias. The pair remains on the downside and is likely to post a further decline as the intraday RSI is still bearish below its neutrality level of 50. A strong resistance at 0.6515 keeps prices under the selling pressure. Moreover, the declining 50-period MA acts as a resistance. In this case, as long as 0.6515 is not surpassed, look for a choppy price action with a bearish bias. Our next downside targets are set at 0.6425 and 0.6365 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6425. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6365. The pivot point stands at 0.6515. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6580 and the second target at 0.66.

Resistance levels: 0.6580 0.66 0.6675

Support levels: 0.6425 0.6365 0.63

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 27, 2015

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. The stalls below its key resistance at 187.25 and remains under pressure. The descending 50-period intraday MA maintains a bearish bias. And the intraday RSI lacks upward momentum.The first downside target is therefore set at the horizontal support overlaping yesterday's low of185.25. A breakout below this level would open the way to further weakness toward 184.10. Only a break above the key resistance at 187.25 would call for further upside toward yesterday's high of 188.15 at first and then toward 188.70.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 185.25. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 184.10. The pivot point stands at 187.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction bouncing back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 188.15 and the second target at 188.70.

Resistance levels: 188.15 188.70 189.45

Support levels: 185.25 184.10 183.35

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Technical analysis of CHF/JPY for August 27, 2015

Clearly, CHF/JPY is falling in a strong downtrend. The most recent support at R1 (126.17) was broken and currently the price is moving back to that area.

The Fibonacci applied to the low reached on the July 8 and the high reached on July 13 shows that 50% retracement level has been broken to the downside. It acted as resistance several times forming a strong supply area.

Consider selling CHF/JPY around 126.00 targeting 161.8% Fibs (S1 - 124.50) area today. The stop loss should be placed just above a high of 126.40, which is near the near R1.

Support: 124.50

Resistance: 126.17, 127.08

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Global macro overview for 27/08/2015

Global macro overview for 27/08/2015:

July's better-than-expected durable good orders unveiled yesterday (2.0%m/m vs. -0.4%m/m, -4.1%m/m prior) together with core durable orders (0.6%m/m vs. 0.3%m/m, 1%m/m prior) made the US markets to rebound quite sharply to the upside after the recent large losses. Moreover, yesterday's Fed's Dudley remarks that its interest rate hike in September looks less compelling than few weeks ago was viewed by markets as good news with a potential more optimistic outlook for the US economy. Well, it all might depend on today's US second GDP release for the second quarter (scheduled at 12:30 GMT), which is expected to be better than the previous one: 3.2% q/q vs. 2.3%q/q, with personal consumption rise to the level of 3.1% from 2.9% a quarter ago.

Nevertheless, the technical picture still does not look too good as the SPY index (S&P500 ETF) keeps trading inside the weekly bearish zone between the levels of 197.80 and 181.30. Encouraging data from the US might make bulls to aim for higher highs and even bridge a gap between the levels of 197.43 and 195.81.

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Global macro overview for 27/08/2015

Global macro overview for 27/08/2015:

The fall in crude oil inventories, which was unveiled yesterday (-5452K vs. 2000K, 2620K prior), enabled crude prices to make a long-awaited corrective bounce. Nevertheless, crude oil has lost a third of its value since June mainly due to growing global concerns, increasing US production and manufacturing, oversupplied markets with record single-day output in the Middle Ease countries, and falling global demand. After the Chinese rate cut and added government stimulus, the oversupplied crude market is trying to correct its recent losses.

From the technical analysis point of view the next resistance comes at the level of 42.00, just below the 21-day moving average.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 27, 2015

General overview for 27/08/2015 10:00 CET

A three-wave decline in wave b purple might bounce from the navy trend-line around the level of 1.3211 and it is still possible to reach another high in this pair to complete the ending diagonal wave progression. To confirm this scenario the market must breakout above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.3352, otherwise the lower range will be tested again.

Support/Resistance:

1.3434 - Potential Wave -v- Target Projection

1.3352 - Intraday Resistance

1.3312 - WR2

1.3264 - WR1

1.3211 - Intraday Support (weak)

1.3144 - Weekly Pivot

1.3140 Intraday Support (strong)

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy orders from the level of 1.3211, with SL below the level of 1.3200 and TP at the level of 1.3299.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 27, 2015

General overview for 27/08/2015 09:45 CET

As anticipated yesterday, another low below the wave Y brown bottom was reached at the level of 135.44. Currently, the corrective structure in wave (a) blue looks completed. If the intraday resistance at the level of 136.40 is violated, then the wave (b) blue to the upside might be in progress, but please keep in mind that this wave (b) might be very short-lived, and the market will continue its decline. Another thing worth to mention is the price is trading inside of the bearish zone now.

Support/Resistance:

135.44 - Intraday Support

135.92 - WS3

136.40 - Intraday Resistance

136.49 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy orders only if the level of 136.51 is violated, with SL below the level of 135.44 and TP at the level of 137.50.

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USDX technical analysis for August 27, 2015

The US Dollar Index continued its upward bounce towards the 61.8% retracement, and I believe that bulls should be very cautious as we could see a bearish reversal soon. I believe it is more probable now to see a reversal towards new short-term lows in order to complete the bullish flag before the resumption of the long-term bullish trend.

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The US Dollar Index is below the Ichimoku cloud resistance and has already been rejected at the 61.8% retracement. Support is found at 94.50 where we the tenkan-sen (red indicator) is found. Breaking below this support will accelerate the selling pressure.

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Red line - resistance

Green line - support

Although I see a bullish flag being formed here, I believe the short-term upside is limited. We should see a push towards lows near 92. Then, the index is likely to resume its longer-term uptrend towards new highs. This scenario will be canceled if we break above the red line first.

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Gold technical analysis for August 27, 2015

Gold price continued to move lower below the short-term and weekly support level of of $1,130. The rejection at $1,170 is a bearish sign, but bulls still have some hopes to bounce from the current levels. The weekly close will be very important regarding the medium- and short-term trend.

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Gold price is testing the Ichimoku cloud and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement in the 4-hour chart. The price has pulled back towards the consolidation, which was taking place during the perion from August 11 to August 13. This is a support area. I believe it is more probable to see a bounce from the current levels.

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In the weekly chart, we saw gold price get rejected at the weekly 61.8% Fibonacci level. The price is seen below the weekly tenkan-sen indicator and a weekly close below this level will be bearish for the next weeks. A weekly close above the tenkan-sen will be considered as a back test that will put $1,170 resistance to the test.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for August 27, 2015

EUR/USD: Since the EUR/USD pair reached the resistance line at 1.1700, it has come down by 380 pips. However, the bullish outlook is not invalidated yet, unless the support lines at 1.1200 and 1.1150 are breached to the downside. Without this happening, there could be some bullish attempts.

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USD/CHF: Since the USD/CHF pair tested the support level at 0.9300, it has come upwards by 250 pips. In the context of a downtrend, the price is testing the resistance level at 0.9550 now, but the downtrend cannot be invalidated unless the resistance levels at 0.9600 and 0.9650 are broken to the upside. Should price fail to do this, bears may try to push the price lower.

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GBP/USD: While in a bullish mode, the cable tested the distribution territory around 1.5800, but it could not go further than that. Bears came in and pushed the price significantly downwards. From that distribution territory, the price plunged by 350 pips, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5450. This resulted in a nice Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart; and further bearish journey is expected.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument is currently consolidating while the downtrend still holds. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 remains below the level 50. This shows that the bearish outlook is still valid. Some fundamental figures which are expected today could have an impact on this market.

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EUR/JPY: There is now a 'sell' signal on this cross, for the price has dipped by 300 pips this week. This is due to the great strength in the yen (as seen on other JPY pairs): therefore long trades are not recommended right now. This is a volatile market.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 27, 2015

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Technical summary:

Small consolidation seen over the last couple of days does look like a small triangle. As we think the final rally in wave (iii) is still missed, we regard this triangle as red wave 8iv) and will be looking for one more rally higher in red wave iv to 1.9141.

We are aware of the risk of being a b-wave triangle. In this case, we will see a break below support at 1.7426 in order to make a decline towards 1.6495.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy on a break above 1.7866 with stop placed at 1.7420 or we will sell on a break below support at 1.7426 with stop placed at 1.7870 (one order cancels the other)

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 26, 2015

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Technical summary:

A decline from 139.02 looks like a double zig-zag correction, and therefore more upside pressure is expected. In the short term, we will be looking for a break above minor resistance at 136.41 and more importantly a break above resistance at 137.59 confirming that a new rally to 139.02 and higher is developing.

Only a break below support at 135.42 will add more downside pressure, but only a break below 133.27 is liklely to indicate that the correction from 141.06 has turned even more complex.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR upon a break above 136.41 with stop placed at 135.41

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 27, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news on Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, and German Import Prices m/m is due to be released. The US will unveil economic data on the Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Prelim GDP q/q. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1395.

Strong Resistance:1.1388.

Original Resistance: 1.1377.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1366.

Target Inner Area: 1.1339.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1312.

Original Support: 1.1301.

Strong Support: 1.1290.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1283.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 27, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data, but the US is expected to publish economic news about Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Prelim GDP q/q. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.70.

Resistance. 2: 120.46.

Resistance. 1: 120.23.

Support. 1: 119.94.

Support. 2: 119.70.

Support. 3: 119.47.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 27, 2015

On the daily chart, as it was expected, the USDX found dynamic support at the 200 SMA and is currently performing a rebound above it, which is now shifting the focus towards the resistance levels of 95.83 and 96.64 respectively. A pullback towards the level of 94.59 should be expected, but the bullish tone is still alive.

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The US Dollar Index is facing the 200 SMA dynamic resistance now offered on the H1 chart, around the level of 95.33, where we a pullback towards 95.08 should be expected. However, if the USDX breaks the resistance level of 95.33, it would be expected to test the zone around 95.68. The 200 SMA is neutral and the MACD indicator remains in the positive territory.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.83 / 96.64

Daily chart's support levels: 95.26 / 94.59

H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.33 / 95.68

H1 chart's support levels: 95.08 / 94.71

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.08, take profit is at 94.71, and stop loss is at 95.47.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 27, 2015

GBP/USD has been trading in a very bearish tone below the 200 SMA in the daily chart, where the pair is consolidating to make a breakout at the level of 1.5438 and reach the level of 1.5329. However, the overall trend is still pointing to the upside, and GBP/USD could resume the bullish bias. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory.

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On the H1 chart, the trend is bearish, and it is currently showing the first swing formation above the support level of 1.5463. Below that zone, the pair could reach the next low around the level of 1.5415. The 200 SMA is slightly bearish in this timframe/ That is why sellers are still alive in the short-term outlook.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5543 / 1.5640

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5438 / 1.5329

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5526 / 1.5561

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5463 / 1.5415

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5463, take profit is at 1.5415, and stop loss is at 1.5511.

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