Daily analysis of Gold for March 08, 2018

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Overview

Gold price begins today's trading with a slight bullish bias after the decline that we witnessed yesterday. The upward bias has been spurred by the positive signal provided now by stochastic. The price is waiting to rally to 1,335.40 followed by 1,342.00 levels to confirm a further bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, so our next main target is located at 1,365.97. Therefore, we still suggest the bullish trend in the short term unless we witness a clear break and the price holds below 1,316.48. The expected trading range for today is between 1,315.00 support and 1,342.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for March 08, 2018

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Overview

Silver price has settled near the bullish trend line that is displayed on the above chart. As long as the price is holding above 16.35, the bullish trend scenario remains active for today, as breaking this level will push the price to visit 15.49 areas before any new attempt to rise. On the other hand, the next main target of the expected bullish wave is located at 17.43. The expected trading range for today is between 16.35 support and 16.90 resistance.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for March 8, 2018

EUR/JPY

In the last several hours, nothing much has happened on this cross. Right now, the EMA 11 is almost crossing the EMA 56 to the upside, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. A strong rally will help bring about a bullish bias on the market. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they may have impact on the market.

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There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but the recent rally has become a threat to the extant bearish outlook. Nonetheless, a strong rally is in the offing, as the outlook on EUR pairs is bullish for this week.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for March 8, 2018

USD/JPY

The situation of this currency trading instrument remains unchanged. Price is currently above the demand level at 106.00, going towards the supply level at 106.50. There is another demand level at 105.50. All these are happening in the very-short term. The medium-term bias on the market is neutral.

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The long-term bias is bearish. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is slightly below the level 50. There is currently a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, which pinpoints further southwards movement (provided the market does so).

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for March 8, 2018

USD/CHF

This pair has started going upwards, testing the resistance level at 0.9450. Once the resistance level is breached to the upside, another resistance level at 0.9500 would be tested, and that one could be breached to the upside too, before the end of this week. The long expected breakout has happened, though slow.

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The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the overbought region. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and that points to further bullishness in the market,

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Global macro overview for 08/03/2018

Yesterday's report on the state of the American economy, the so-called The Beige Book of the Fed confirmed the good condition of the economic situation in the USA. A further tightening of the situation on the labor market is visible and the demand for more qualified employees increases. Yesterday's ADP report confirmed the good condition of this sector. According to the data of this private company, in February in the private sector, 235,000 were created. new positions against the expected increase by 195,000 What's more, the data for January have been revised up by 10,000 A rise in prices was observed in all districts, which points to inflationary pressure. The above data support expectations for a solid report from the US Department of Labor and further normalization of monetary policy. In yesterday's speech, a member of FOMC member - Raphael Bostic - revised up his views on the number of interest rate hikes this year to three out of two forecasted in December 2017.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame to see how this data influenced the market. The slide from the level of 90.98 was stopped at the level of 89.37, but since then the price has a trouble to get back to the main channel again despite the oversold market conditions. There is still a chance for a test of the technical resistance at the level of 90.23, but the price might get capped there and reverse back towards the support. Pleas notice that any violation of the support at the level of 89.37 will open the road towards the February lows at 88.26.

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Global macro overview for 08/03/2018

The markets have recently been severely damaged by the protectionist threats from Donald Trump. The position of the US President's strong emphasis on trade policy issues hampers a stronger rebound of the dollar. The market behaves in this situation like a beaten dog. He got so many kicks from Trump that he would be suspicious about his hand, which wants to pet him, that is, to speculate about the announced eased position (especially against Canada and Mexico). Optimism can be seen in the sharp drop in USD / CAD, but for example, the rise of Wall Street slowed down before an important level of 2725 - 2730 points.

Investors cannot decide what to make the leitmotif of quotations. From the more hawkish Fed and fiscal policy, which are to push the US debt profitability to new highs (over 3.0% in the case of ten-year securities), or for fear of trade wars. It is noteworthy that both factors are negative for the world of emerging markets. In many of the markets in this catalog, extensive items have grown up, which in the current chaos will crumble and this process can be violent and painful.

Let's now take a look at the SPY (SP500 ETF) technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a lower high at the level of 279.01 and then dropped towards the level of 264.70. Recently, the bulls tried to rally again, but so far the price was capped at the level of 273.42. This will be the key short-term technical resistance for the price to break out higher towards the level of 275.27. If the bulls will permanently fail here, then the test of the nearest technical support at the level of 269.94 is unavoidable as the market conditions looks overbought.

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Analysis of Gold for March 08, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,322.00. According to the 30M time – frame, I found a valid breakout of the intraday bearish pennant pattern, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found that price failed to test pivot level at ($1,329.40), which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward tarrgets are set at the price of $1,318.35 and at the price of $1,311.25.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,336.62

R2: $1,347.70

R3: $1,354.93

Support levels:

S1: $1,318.35

S2: $1,311.25

S3: $1,300.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 08, 2018

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair will probably continue rising from the level of 0.9438 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.9438 which represents the daily pivot point on the H4 chart. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 0.9594 or higher. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9438. So, buy above the level of 0.9438 with the first target at 0.9516 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 0.9594 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.9516, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 0.9704. The price is likely to form a double botttop m in the same time frame On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9342, a further decline to 0.9187 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market in coming hours.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 08, 2018

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continued moving upwards from the level of 0.7200 (50% Fibonacci reterecament level).
  • The pair rose from the level of 0.7200 to the top around 0.7285. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.7200 followed by 0.7145, while daily resistance is seen at 0.7336.
  • According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7200 and 0.7336.
  • This would suggest a bullish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs.
  • Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7336, we should see the pair climbing towards the new double top (0.7437) to test it.
  • On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.7200, then this scenario may become invalidated. Remember to place a stop loss; it should be set below the second support of 0.7145 (green horizontal line).
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GBP/USD analysis for March 08, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3859. Anyway, according to the 15M time – frame, I found a successful rejection of the pivot support 1 at the price of 1.3863, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3928 and at the price of 1.3953.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3928

R2: 1.3953

R3: 1.3955

Support levels:

S1: 1.3863

S2: 1.3820

S3: 1.3796

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for March 08, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $9.802. Bitcoin reached my yesterdays' targets. This month a law firm called Polsinelli LLP published a study called "Cryptocurrency Class Action Lawsuits: A New Frontier" which explains that initial coin offerings (ICO) will spark a large number of litigation proceedings against cryptocurrency projects and businesses. The technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found that price is trading inside of the intraday pennant pattern, which is a sign of consolidation. I also found strong selling pressure in the background and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $9.610 and at the price of $9.340.

Support/Resistance

$10.185 – Intraday resistance

$9.610– Intraday support

$9.610 – Objective target 1

$9.340 – Objective target 2

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Bitcoin analysis for 08/03/2018

The German car maker - BMW - allegedly ended its second cooperation with the Blockchain startup, this time to obtain ethical cobalt for its products, according to the Reuters agency, citing the start-up president. Just one week after the automotive giant unveiled a contract with Vchhain's Chinese supply company from Blockchain, Douglas Johnson-Poensgen, the CEO of the little-known British startup Circulor, said they are working with BMW to bring the so-called "pure cobalt" to ensure their ethicality origin. Cobalt comes mainly from the war-torn Democratic Republic of the Congo, whereas some materials inform, children are used there to work and use so-called "craft mines", which are subject to informal laws. When the system is checked and operates on a large scale, it is possible to deal with more difficult cases, such as craft mines. Johnson-Poensgen said: "The latest change continues the trend in the automotive industry, in particular in Germany, focusing on the use of Blockchain technology to support innovation and reduce costs".

Yesterday, the owner of Mercedes - Daimler - launched a completely new cryptocurrency. This currency, known as MobiCoin, aims to reward drivers for safe and eco-friendly driving and is currently in the three-month test phase with 500 car owners. At the end of February, Porsche successfully implemented and tested Blockchain technology in cooperation with the Berlin startup XAIN.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has dropped to the level of $9,434, so the green impulsive scenario was invalidated as wave 2 went into the territory of wave 1. The current scenario assumes a top of the wave 1/A at the level of $11,714 and a rather extended in time and price correction in the wave 2/B in form of an ABC Regular Flat pattern. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,111 and it the count is correct, the market should now start to develop wave 3/C to the upside.

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Trading plan for 08/03/2018

The behavior of the major currencies overnight was very calm and passed in the atmosphere of waiting for key decisions (ECB, NFP, Trump). EUR/USD is at 1.24, GBP/USD is quoted at 1.39, USD/JPY is fighting to stay above 106.00. The change in the percentage of the exchange rate of any of the three currency pairs does not exceed 0.1% at the moment. The contract for the SP500 slowed by 2730 points around resistance. Profitability of the American 10-year Bonds is close to 2.9%. In Shanghai and Tokyo, the buyers are slightly dominant as bother Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite go up about 0.5%.

On Thursday 8th of March, the event calendar is busy in important news releases, so the global investors should keep an eye on German Factory Orders data, ECB Intrest Rate Decision and Press Conference, Canadain New Housing Price Index, Building Permits and Housing Starts data and Unemployment Claims and Continuing Claims data from the US. Moreover, there are some speeches scheduled form the central bankers from Canada: BOC Deputy Governor Timothy Lane and BOC Governor Stephen Poloz.

EUR/USD analysis for 08/03/2018:

The event of the day is the meeting of the European Central Bank, which will announce its decision at 02:45 pm GMT. The market participants do not expect changes in the parameters of the monetary policy. At 03:30 pm GMT a press conference of ECB President Mario Draghi is planned and it is the one that arouses the most emotions. Investors will focus on removing the dovish attitude from the statement in relation to the asset purchase program. Nevertheless, the Governing Council might postpone this step in time. Although the strength of economic growth may be impressive, the persistence of inflation rebound is still debatable. In addition, the monetary authorities do not want to unnecessarily fuel the appreciation of the euro. As a result, the ECB meeting may not give the impulse for a faster strengthening of the single currency. The removal of the said fragment would have a hawkish tone, as it would allow for a serious debate on the date of the first interest rate increase (conventionally taken 6 months after the end of QE).

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still hovering around the level of 61% Fibo with a local high made at the level of 1.2446. The market conditions are overbought and the momentum indicators are still above its fifty level but point down ahead of ECB interest rate decision. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2366, but the key support remains at the level of 1.2165.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for March 8, 2018

The Dollar index remains under pressure. Price has broken below the 4-hour Kumo and has turned short-term trend from neutral to bearish. Price continues to make lower lows and lower highs while trading below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen.

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Next important short-term support is at 89.25 where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. As long as price is below the Kumo trend will be bearish. For trend to change to bullish in the 4hour chart we will need to see a break above 90.40. Price could bounce from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and move higher to test the cloud from below.

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On a weekly basis price got rejected last week by the tenkan-sen (Red line indicator) and remains below it. Trend is clearly bearish in the weekly chart and there is no sign of a bounce or reversal as long as price closes below the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. A break above the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) will open the way for a bounce at least towards the Kumo.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for March 8, 2018

Gold price is making higher highs and higher lows in the 4-hour chart and is breaking above the Kumo. Trend is turning bullish. Medium-term trend is neutral as price remains inside the Daily Kumo and still inside the $1,350-$1,310 trading range.

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Price is above the 4-hour Kumo. Support is at $1,322-16. Resistance is at $1,340. So far it looks like bulls remain in control as the critical support of $1,300 has been held and price has now started again to make higher highs and higher lows.

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Magenta line -long-term resistance

Red line - short-term support

Gold price is trading inside the Kumo in the Daily chart. The low at $1,302 so far is the most important support level and as long as price is above it, I will be expecting the short-term uptrend to continue and eventually break above the double top for new highs. We also find support at $1,320. Break below it and we will test $1,300. Resistance is at $1,340. Break it and most probably we break the double top.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 08, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair edged higher last night. Currently, the prices are consolidating above both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

The U.S. dollar was little changed as investors awaited details of the proposed new U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Therefore, as long as 0.9400 is not broken, look for a new rise with targets at 0.9445 and 0.9475 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9400, take profit at 0.9445.

Resistance levels: 0.9475, 0.9500, and 0.9540

Support levels: 0.9375, 0.9355, and 0.9300.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 08, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Additionally, the golden cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index is supported by an ascending trend line.

Hence, as long as 146.70 is not broken, look for a further rise with targets at 148 and 148.50 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended to be above 146.50 with the target at 147.45.

Strategy: BUY, Stop loss at 146.70, Take profit at 148.00

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 148.00, 148.50, and 149.10

Support levels: 146.20, 145.95, and 144.00

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for March 8, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, a further decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390. Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern was expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390).

The price zone (0.7320-0.7390) remains a significant supply zone for the NZD/USD pair. Any bullish pullback towards this price zone should be considered for a valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown of 0.7300 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 8, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100-1.2200 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2075 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750 provided that the bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2075 remains defended by the bulls.

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Daily Outlook

In September, bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was projected towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish momentum to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2500 and 1.2200 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 is needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

On the other hand, the depicted double-top reversal pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 (the depicted uptrend line) to be achieved on a daily basis. Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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Gold was trapped

The news about the resignation of the chief economic adviser to the president Gary Cohn allowed gold to mark its best daily level since Valentine's Day. If an ardent opponent of protectionism, an ex-candidate for the presidency of the Fed, withdraws from his post, a potential global trade war is unlikely to be avoided. And in it, all weapons will look good. Including - large-scale selling of US Treasury bonds by the main holders in the face of China and Japan. I believe other countries will do the same. Their desire to get rid of the power of the dollar will force them to shift to gold. Thus, trade wars are potentially capable of providing the precious metal with invaluable support.

Until March, investors' demand for ETF products was characterized by mixed dynamics. The fall in the XAU/USD and the increase in gold volatility contributed to an outflow of 5.1 tonnes in February. The biggest losses were suffered by European (-7.3 tons) and North American stock-exchange specialized funds (-5.1 tons), while Asians, on the contrary, replenished their reserves (+7.9 tons). As a result, according to the latest figure, it has increased by 10% since the beginning of the year.

Monthly dynamics of demand for ETF products

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Source: WGC.

Annual dynamics of demand for ETF products

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Source: WGC.

In my opinion, the value of the investment demand for precious metals was influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar. The fastest growth in the weekly wage in January over the past few years has strengthened the risks of overclocking inflation and the aggressive monetary tightening of the Fed. Moreover, the new head of the Federal Reserve was optimistic about the US economy and the way of betting on federal funds. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, indicated four hikes in 2018 - a gradual normalization of monetary policy. As a result, the futures market increased the chances of such an outcome to 34%, and gold plunged into a wave of selling. Everyone remembers perfectly how uncomfortable it felt at the eve of the historic FOMC meetings in 2017.

Nevertheless, the growing likelihood of the implementation of the policy of anti-globalization, Donald Trump, significantly tempered investors' appetite for risk. If the stock indexes behaved rather restrained in response to the high-sounding statements of the US president on tariffs on the import of steel and aluminum, the resignation of Gary Cohn convinced that the matter should be taken very seriously.

In the medium term, gold can be trapped in consolidation: on the one hand, news about the trade war will provide support to the bulls on the XAU/USD; on the other hand, the return of the divergence idea in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the central banks-peers can become a saving straw for the US dollar. In my opinion, in the second and third quarters, against the background of the return of the normalization theme, its strength will run out, so the price will drop to the lower border of the trading range of $1300-1360 per ounce, which makes sense to use for purchases.

Technically, if the bulls manage to return gold quotes to the limits of the upward medium-term trading channel, then the risks of implementing the target values by 113% and by 127.2% according to the Shark and AB = CD patterns will increase.

Gold, daily chart

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