Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 24, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broken through the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2485 (now support) and made a local high at the level of 1.2541. Since that, the price started to reverse a little, but there are still chances for the bounce to continue higher. Please notice, that to break out from the short-term descending channel zone, the bull would have to violated the level of 1.2580, which is the key short-term technical resistance for the price. The positive and strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2859

WR2 - 1.2772

WR1 - 1.2508

Weekly Pivot - 1.2419

WS1 - 1.2165

WS2 - 1.2080

WS3 - 1.1826

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 24, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The logo and name and Bitcoin were registered in Spain by the Spanish Patent and Trademark Office. The process was completed by Ignacio Rubio Menendez, a compliance expert and lawyer specializing in business law. Financial media spoke directly to Menendez's client, who for the time being decides to remain anonymous.

"I have registered the logo and the word" Bitcoin "at the national level in the Spanish Patent and Trademark Office. Everyone can access the registers because they are published daily and for all recipients" - explains the person.

When asked why he took the initiative to protect this intellectual property, he replied: "I am a Bitcoin seller, I have a buy and sell office, and the idea is to protect Bitcoins, at least in Spain. That is why I am in favor of the brand and take responsibility for the fact that every new user can feel 100% safe working with me and away from the scams that use the word "Bitcoin".

It should be noted that the application relates to a logo containing the white letter 'B' in an orange circle that would be the official Bitcoin logo. "In the text, uppercase B refers to code, and lowercase b refers to crypto," he explained.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a Pin Bar candlestick patter after the rally has hit the key technical resistance seen at the level of $9,704 and since then had been trading inside of a narrow local zone located between the levels of $9,530 - $9,650. This might be an early indication that the rally is over and bears are trying to regain the control over the market. Please keep an eye on the key short-term technical support located at the level of $9,530 as any violation of this level might accelerate the drop towards the level of $9,381. The key technical support is located at the level of $8,8858. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,274

WR2 - $9,895

WR1 - $9,583

Weekly Pivot - $9,212

WS1 - $8,912

WS2 - $8,511

WS3 - $8,252

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 24, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Former Deputy Chief of Vietnamese Criminal Police, Vu Hoang Kien, said campaigns to raise money for cryptocurrency companies are illegal in this country.

Kien warned Vietnamese citizens to remain vigilant and not get caught up in any form of investment in cryptocurrencies, no matter how high the profits are.

In addition to the risk of investing in such programs, he also emphasized that investments in cryptocurrencies and payments made using virtual currencies are not legally recognized in this country. Therefore, investing in or using cryptocurrencies will also mean breaking Vietnamese laws.

Despite the warnings, crypto investments are still underway in the country, said Nguyen Nam Hao from the Department of Corruption, Smuggling and Economic Crime Police. He also added that in order to limit fraud and minimize other negative effects of cryptocurrencies, Vietnam needs more stringent and detailed rules.

In August 2017, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc ordered the Central Bank of Vietnam and the Ministry of Finance to review virtual currencies and establish a legal framework for regulating them.

However, the review did not result in benefits for cryptocurrencies. The central bank announced the following month that the use of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is illegal in this country. In April 2018, cryptocurrencies were officially banned as means of payment for goods and services.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair is testing the range zone upper line located at the level of $248.90 after the bounce from the technical support located at the level of $225.84. Momentum is now increasing, which help the bullish cause, bur despite the recent rally continuation, Ethereum is still trading below the key technical resistance seen at the level of $252.03. Moreover, any sustained violation of the nearest technical support located at the level of $238.68 might accelerate the drop towards the next support seen at the level of $235.42. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $257.09

WR2 - $246.02

WR1 - $2437.53

Weekly Pivot - $227.45

WS1 - $218.65

WS2 - $207.59

WS3 - $198.98

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on June 24, 2020

The coronavirus suddenly became the main driving force in the market again, and despite all the published macroeconomic data, the main movement began during Boris Johnson's speech. He only spoke about the coronavirus. More precisely, speaking in the House of Commons, the prime minister announced a new stage in lifting the restrictive measures previously introduced due to the coronavirus epidemic. It consists of the opening of pubs, cinemas and museums, and this will happen on July 4. Also, Johnson announced the reduction of social distance from two meters to one. But all this was not enough for the prime minister, and he said that the further lifting of restrictive measures would go faster than planned. After such statements, investors were no longer interested in what was happening there with macroeconomic statistics. They just played against the dollar. Indeed, complete confusion continues on the issue of restrictive measures in the United States. Somewhere they are being cut, extended, and there is simply no single policy on this issue. Moreover, in fact, the self-isolation regime is no longer respected. Let's just say that, after mass unrest, this has lost all meaning, and no one is following this. It came to the point that the European Union is considering the possibility, after opening all borders, to temporarily ban entry for citizens of the United States. And of course, everyone draws a parallel between the removal of restrictions and the beginning of economic recovery. There is no need to talk about any growth without this. That is, it turns out that the British economy will begin to grow earlier than the American one.

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At the same time, preliminary indexes of business activity in the UK were not just better than forecasts. After all, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector increased from 40.7 to 50.1. That is, it exceeded the mark of 50.0 points, separating the decline from growth. Simply put, there are signs of the beginning of economic recovery. The index of business activity in the service sector grew from 29.0 to 47.0. As a result, the composite business activity index grew from 30.0 to 47.6. So macroeconomic statistics in the UK are quite good, and inspire optimism.

Manufacturing Business Activity Index (UK):

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At the same time, US data turned out to be significantly better than forecasts. Thus, the index of business activity in the service sector grew from 37.5 to 46.7, while the production index from 39.8 to 49.6. The composite business activity index has grown from 37.0 to 46.8. Preliminary data on business activity indexes was published in the United States yesterday. Sales of new homes unexpectedly increased by 16.6%. Total sales increased from 580,000 to 676,000. But all this was published after Johnson's speech, so that investors no longer cared for them.

New Home Sales (United States):

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The macroeconomic calendar is completely empty today, and investors are unlikely to be interested in housing prices in the United States, which should fall by 0.4%. This is an insignificant factor after yesterday's data on sales of new homes. No speeches are planned for today. So market participants will be guided solely by technical factors.

Home Price Index (United States):

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In terms of technical analysis, speculative excitement is recorded, which excites the interest of market participants on a daily basis. So, analyzing the details of the fluctuations, you can see the corrective move from the level of 1.2350, which brought the quote to the value of 1.2500, where it might seem that resistance was found for a moment, but no, speculators continued to work, which led to a local consolidation above a variable level.

Regarding volatility, high indicators are still recorded here, which practically exceed the average daily value.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, it is worth noting that the downward cycle of June 11 brought the quote to the previous range of 1.2150 // 1.2350 // 1.2620, inside which all fluctuations occur.

It can be assumed that having an accumulation in the region of 1.2500/1.2540 will serve as a catalyst for trading forces for speculators, where, in terms of the logic of technical analysis, a recovery in the direction of 1.2450 could occur, but due to the high excitement, the best strategy is still the method of working on the breakout of established boundaries.

Specifying all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions higher than 1.2545, towards 1.2580.

- We consider short positions lower than 1.2490, towards 1.2450.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, you can see that the indicators of technical tools on hourly periods signal a purchase, due to prices being focused above the level of 1.2500. The daily period still signals a sale, as it is in a downward bar on June 11th.

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Strong PMI growth supports positive mood; Overview of USD, NZD, and AUD

Macroeconomic data from a number of G10 countries published on Tuesday are entirely in the green zone, which added to the optimism of players and contributed to the growth of stock indexes and overall confidence that the global economy has started a recovery cycle.

The largest positive contribution was made by the Markit report on the PMI of the eurozone countries, which showed a significant excess of forecasts. The risks of an escalation of the trade war between the United States and China declined after Trump's quick explanation of Navarro's inconvenient comments.

The dollar is under pressure, partly partly due to rising positivity, partly due to uncertainty about the expected introduction of another stimulus program, partly due to the fact that the US economy may be under pressure due to the threat of another wave of coronavirus - in more than 30 states, R0 is greater than unity, which, in turn, increases uncertainty.

NZD/USD

Today, as expected, RBNZ left the rate at 0.25% and did not increase the QE program. The accompanying statement emphasizes that despite some positive changes in the near future, "significant economic problems remain" and the risks are still firmly inclined downward. The RBNZ reminded the markets that, if necessary, it has additional tricks. What kind of tricks? We will learn from the results of the meeting in August, at which, as expected, the QE program will be increased from 60 to 90 billion.

The tone of the accompanying statement was distinctly dovish, the main threats were expected to be regarded as a consequence of the coronavirus epidemic, but is it really a matter of coronavirus? Just look at the graph of GDP growth rates to see that the peak of recovery after the 2008/09 crisis occurred in the 1st quarter of 2015, after which the GDP growth rate has steadily declined.

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It is clear that the economy has suffered significantly due to the fact that international tourism was completely blocked. But does everything else work? New Zealand lifted quarantine restrictions earlier than other countries, prices for dairy products are stable, the industry is fully operational. The growth of NZD, of course, worsens the overall picture, but this is a natural payment for the fact that coronavirus essentially bypassed the country. Nevertheless, the RBNZ emphasized that a high exchange rate is a constraining factor, as one of the measures it is supposed to increase the purchase of assets abroad.

In general, it is understood that the situation in the economy of New Zealand is completely under control, the RBNZ is preparing a number of additional incentive measures that will ultimately have a beneficial effect on the overall investment climate. The decline in inflation is uncritical, and according to the latest CFTC report, investors are very favorable towards the NZD - the total short position declined by 608 million and almost went to zero, the dynamics are positive, and the estimated fair price is confidently looking up.

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The NZD/USD pair is trading near highs in the side range, the exit from which is highly likely to take place up. Purchases from current levels with a target of 0.6750 are logical, with a pullback to support 0.6375/90, you can add to purchases, canceling this scenario will go below the lower limit of the range with a simultaneous increase in panic in global markets in general.

AUD/USD

Australia is one of the first to enter the growth trajectory, which clearly follows from the high PMI levels in June. The manufacturing index came close to the growth zone, showing 49.8, the service sector went even higher at 53.2 p, and the composite index 52.6 p.

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A sharp decline in the short position in AUD led to a strong increase in the estimated price, the chances of continued growth look very convincing.

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We should expect a test of the strength of the maximum of June 10, 0.7064, and an attempt to increase to 0.7207. The recovery of the Australian currency from the March 15 low of 0.5507 looks rapid, especially on the weekly chart, and this increases the probability of a correction, but still not in the coming days. Meanwhile, investors are very positive, and AUD supports the confident recovery of China, whose economy was significantly more stable than what was expected in January-February.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for June 24, 2020

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It would be a lie to say that EUR/GBP is in a hurry to break higher. It still managed to make a new short-term higher for the rally since the 0.8864 low indicating more upside should be expected towards 0.9183 as the next hurdle. If our count is correct, then ultimately resistance at 0.9183 shouldn't be a major hurdle, but just a minor glitch on the way higher to 0.9499 and above as wave iii gathers momentum.

That said, we know, that this rally will not be in a straight line and we need to be patient and let EUR/GBP work its way higher and ultimately it will accelerate higher as is the footprint for third waves.

R3: 0.9183

R2: 0.9134

R1: 0.9085

Pivot: 0.9055

S1: 0.9017

S2: 0.9002

S3: 0.8988

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8760 with our stop placed at 0.8910.

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EUR / USD: The positive effects of the coronavirus to the US dollar has now ceased.

The USD index has once again fallen to the middle of the 96th figure, updating the two-week low. Recent macroeconomic reports did not even affect the currency positively, so demand for risky assets continues to prevail among traders despite the increase in the daily incidence of coronavirus worldwide. Apparently, market participants are not interested in the dynamics of the pandemic itself. Focus has been shifted to the reaction of authorities to the latest trends, in which most of the reactions were calm, and no one speaks of repeated lockdowns in key countries. Thus, the frightening growth in the coronavirus statistics did not concern investors, robbing the dollar of its support as a safe-haven asset.

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Recent days have listed more than 30 thousand new infections in the United States (although over the course of several weeks, the growth rate ranged from 17-25 thousand). Just last week, the huge jump in the number of new infections has pulled the US dollar up, but the comments from top officials that followed leveled the concerns of investors. One example was the statement of US Vice President Mike Pence, who said that the recent protests in the country did not provoke a second wave of the pandemic. Only a few states recorded another outbreak of the coronavirus. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also assured the public that the White House is not planning to return a hard quarantine, which was supported by economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who also said that another lockdown is very unlikely.

The fate of the much-anticipated additional assistance from the US authorities was also discussed. According to Kudlow, the corresponding agreement "may well be reached this summer", but at the moment, no decisions have been made in this regard. Even the estimated amount of assistance has not yet been determined, not to mention the other details of legislative initiative. Nevertheless, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell personally asked senators to pass the bill, and signed a letter with 150 economists to ask lawmakers funds to stimulate the economy.

However, according to most experts, the White House will lobby its own bill in July, while the Senate, controlled by Republicans, will reject the Democrats' initiative. Such prospects put pressure on the US dollar, and Kudlow's comments on this matter made it worse for the bulls of the US dollar.

Macroeconomic reports on the United States also disappointed traders as recent data turned out to be weaker than expected. For example, the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector, contrary to optimistic forecasts, did not exceed the key 50-point mark, rising to just 49.6 points, which is still within the "red zone". Experts expected a more significant increase in the index. The same can be said on the PMI for the US service sector, which grew to just 46.7, lower than what economists had expected. The only indicator that exceeded forecast yesterday was the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, which still can't be considered a breakthrough as the indicator came out at zero level.

Other factors also failed to contribute to the growth of the US dollar, as the short-term demand for safe-haven assets provoked by the statements of White House advisor Peter Navarro on the prospects of US-China relations was offset by the subsequent statement of trade representative Robert Lighthizer, who assured the public that the two countries are still committed to fulfilling their obligations. China also reacted to the situation, announcing an increase in the purchases of US agricultural products, and its readiness to adhere to the terms of the deal to increase imports by $ 200 billion over two years.

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In other words, the US dollar still cannot find a foothold, and the current dynamics of the USD index eloquently testifies to this. The European currency, in turn, received support from the PMI indices yesterday, the dynamics of which indicate that the eurozone economy is gradually recovering. Such trends resulted to a breakout from the resistance level 1.1290 yesterday (which corresponds to the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart), in which after that, the Ichimoku indicator formed a bullish signal in the chart, confirming the strength of the upward movement. Bulls now have an open way to the next (intermediate) resistance level at 1.400, as well as to the main target 1.1422 (the three-month high that was achieved last week). The highest value of the quotes also corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands in the daily chart.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 24, 2020

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EUR/JPY still needs to prove, that a corrective low in fact was seen with the test of 119.41 and a new impulsive rally is in motion. The rally from the 119.41 low does look promising, but we still need to see a break above minor resistance at 121.23 and more importantly a break above the key resistance at 122.12 to confirm that wave 3 higher indeed is in motion. For now this is our preferred count, but we would like to see EUR/JPY act out as this also is the case, which it really hasn't yet.

Support is seen at 120.19 and again at 119.88, which ideally should be able to protect the downside for the next spike higher.

R3: 122.12

R2: 121.58

R1: 121.23

Pivot: 120.67

S1: 120.19

S2: 119.88

S3: 119.60

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 119.95 with our stop placed at 119.35

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GBP/CAD to test 1.6892 level today on June 24, 2020.

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According to the 4-hour chart, the GBP/CAD pair seems to be poised to test the 1.6892 level. If this level can easily break, the odds are that the pair continues its downward move at least to test 1.6806 provided that GBP/CAD does not retrace upward and closes above the 1.6980 level.

(Disclaimer)

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GBP/USD: There is Hidden Divergence Between Price and Stochastic Oscillator, Analysis for June 24, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, we spotted the Hidden Divergence between the price and the Stochastic Oscillator. Based on this fact, we predict GBP/USD to go down to the 1.2686-1.2335 area. If this pair can easily break and pass that area, there is a high probability for GBP/USD to continue its down movement to reach 1.2161 as the downward target as long as the currency pair does not retrace up and closes above the 1.2542 level.

The overall bias for GBP/USD now is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 24 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound not pleased with the increase in

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The British pound was in the side channel all day yesterday, creating excellent buy and sell signals, I mentioned the probability of it in my forecast. If you look at the 5-minute chart and remember my review from yesterday afternoon, you will see how the bulls tried to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.2503 for the third time, which they managed to do. After that, a signal was formed to buy the British pound, which continues to work out at the moment. Demand for the pound will remain as long as trade is conducted above 1.2508, and forming the next false breakout there will be an additional signal for opening long positions. Today, bulls will initially aim for resistance at 1.2585, a break which will provide GBP/USD with a more powerful upward momentum with a high of 1.2676, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound returns to the area of 1.2508, and this can happen against the background of the absence of important fundamental statistics today, it is best to consider new long positions after updating yesterday's large support area at 1.2435, counting on a rebound of 30-40 points by the end of the day. It is also necessary to remember that the British pound's situation is rapidly changing in favor of buyers. The COT report states that last week short non-commercial positions were reduced from 52,941 to 45,376. At that time, long non-commercial positions sharply rose from 28,893 to 29,379. As a result, the non-commercial net position decreased its negative value to -15,998, against -24,048, which indicates a possible market reversal and building a new bullish momentum in the medium term.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers will try their best to regain the 1.2508 area, consolidating below which will be an excellent signal to open short positions. The goal will be to return GBP/USD yesterday's major support at 1.2435 and its breakout, since consolidating below this level will be a turning point and will return the bearish momentum to the market, which can lead to updating lows 1.2381 and 1.2334, where I recommend taking profit. If the bulls continue to bend their line, then most likely the sales will have to be postponed until the resistance test of 1.2585, subject to forming a false breakout, but I advise you to open short positions immediately for a rebound only after updating last week's high in the area of 1.2676 while expecting a rebound of 30-40 points by the end of the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued growth of the pound in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator at 1.2560 will lead to a new wave of pound growth. Pressure will be limited by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2465.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 24 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Bulls make their way up. COT reports.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

In my forecast for the afternoon, I drew attention to the sales that took place after updating the resistance level of 1.1349. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that after the breakout and consolidating above resistance 1.1279, when a buy signal was formed, the bulls task was to test resistance at 1.1349, which they successfully did. After that, a sell signal was formed, and the market began an intraday downward correction. At the moment, the hourly chart shows how the pair stands in the side channel and where it will continue to move, one can only guess. Buyers need to break through and gain a foothold above the level of 1.1349 to continue the euro's growth. This will only be a signal to open long positions in the hope of updating the high of 1.1418, which is the target for the middle of this week. Another task is to update the level of 1.1462, where I recommend taking profits. With the downward correction of EUR/USD in the morning against the background of weak data for Germany from the Ifo Institute, it is best to return to long positions only after a false breakout has formed in the support area of 1.1287, since this level may lose its power. If there is no activity on it, it is best to buy for a rebound from yesterday's low in the area of 1.1234 while expecting a correction of 25-30 points. It is also necessary to remember about the COT reports, which clearly indicates maintaining the bullish momentum in the market. Let me remind you that during the reporting week a short non-profit position was recorded from the level of 89,020 to the level of 69,988, while long non-profit positions sharply rose from the level of 184,669 to the level of 187,120. As a result, the positive non-profit net position rose again and reached 117,132, against 95,639, which indicates an increase in interest in buying risky assets even at current prices high enough for the market.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers quickly rehabilitated and showed themselves from the resistance level of 1.1349 yesterday, from which I recommended opening short positions. At the moment, the bears will be waiting for reports on the indicator of conditions and expectations of the German business environment from the IFO, which may put pressure on the European currency. Poor performance in June may lead to forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1349. In such a scenario can we now sell in this area while expecting the pair to return to support 1.1287, where I recommend taking profits. An additional signal to sell could be divergence, which is now being formed on the MACD indicator. An equally important task for sellers will be to return and consolidate below the level of 1.1287, which will lead to a larger downward correction of EUR/USD to the area of yesterday's low of 1.1234. In case there are no active sales in the 1.1349 area, it is best to postpone short positions until the high of 1.1418 is updated.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading above 30 and 50 moving averages, but their breakdown can lead to a downward correction in euros.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator at 1.1340 may lead to an increase in the euro. A break of the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1287 will increase pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZDUSD broke below ascending trendline support! Further drop impending!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.64882

Reason for Entry: 50% Fibonacci retracement, moving average resistance

Take Profit: 0.64368

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 161.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 0.65144

Reason for Stop Loss: 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, ascending trendline resistance

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 24, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro grew by 48 points on Tuesday, almost consolidating itself above the target level of 1.1265 after a reversal of the Marlin oscillator signal line from the zero border line dividing the decline zone from the oscillator growth zone, indicating the prospect of a market trend. The next target of 1.1385 is formally open, but it may not be achieved, which can be seen when considering the situation on a smaller timeframe.

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Marlin's signal line went beyond the upper boundary of its own channel on the H4, but soon returned to it. This is already a sign of the falsity of the past price spike. And here two scenarios are possible: a slower growth of the euro in the range of 1.1353/85 with a divergence forming according to Marlin, and a reversal of the euro down without reaching 1.1353 (the June 16 high), practically from current levels. The first signal for this is the price drift under the MACD line (1.1295).

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Thus, it is late and unreliable to buy the euro, and early to sell. We are waiting for the resolution of the situation.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 24, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound traded in the range of Fibonacci levels of 138.2-123.6% on Tuesday, closing the day at the upper level of 123.6%. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator shows the intention to turn down from the border of the growth territory on the daily chart. As a result, the price faced a choice: either a further increase to 1.2644, or a decrease to 1.2422 with the prospect of a further fall to 1.2235.

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The price shows the first signs of a reversal from the Fibonacci level of 123.6% with the Marlin oscillator unfolding on the four-hour chart. The reversal will be consolidated, however, not before reaching the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.2422), that is, the reversal will form for a little more than a hundred points. But then the price opens up the prospect of a fall of another 180-200 points, and this will only be the immediate goal (1.2235).

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The price needs to go above the MACD line to continue growth, above 1.2565. We are waiting for the development of events.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 24, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar opened and closed above the target level of 0.6900 on Tuesday, which made it consolidate above the level and now it is striving for the second goal of 0.7080. The price is helped by the Marlin oscillator, which has moved into the zone of positive values.

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After the price exceeded the MACD indicator line on the four-hour chart, the price re-tested this line from above, and continued to grow in the Asian session today. The Marlin oscillator in the growth zone.

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It is possible to open purchases with a stop loss below the MACD line, that is, below 0.6925.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 24, 2020

USD/JPY

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair made false shots in both directions in a total range of 114 points, but eventually, it closed the day with a loss of 39 points. The upper limit for the price was the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. The nearest target at 105.85 is open on the lower price channel line. Overcoming the support opens the second target of 105.40.

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The reversal occurred from the MACD line on the four-hour chart. In this case, the resistance line coincided with the price channel line of the daily timeframe, the level strengthened, the price turned around quickly and strongly.

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The trend is completely decreasing at both price scopes, we are waiting for the fall to continue.

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USDCAD is approaching 1st support, possible bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3490

Reason for Entry: 50% fib retracement ,78% fib extension

Take Profit :1.3616

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high

Stop Loss:1.3364

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing low support

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 24. Trump's election campaign began as a complete failure. The US dollar is again under

Technical details:

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Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 60.7806

The British pound also continued its upward movement during the second trading day of the new week. However, it was not as strong as the euro currency, so by the end of the day, it only managed to get to the moving average line and go slightly above it. Thus, the trend for the pound/dollar pair can also change to an upward trend, although we still do not see what can make the British pound more expensive in a pair with the dollar. However, in the article on the euro currency, we assumed that the issue is not the euro or the pound and the demand of market participants for these currencies. The case now depends entirely on the US, Trump, and the US dollar. Indirectly, this hypothesis is confirmed by COT reports, which show that demand for the pound and the euro currency did not increase during the period of appreciation of these currencies, as well as the fact that both currencies are moving almost synchronously in recent weeks. From the UK on Tuesday, June 23, we received information that business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors increased significantly in June and is 50.1 and 47.0 points, respectively. This is good news for the pound, however, we are not at all sure that these reports were the reason for the strengthening of the British currency. Although similar strong business activity indices from overseas did not cause any reaction from traders. Also yesterday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made a speech, which recently decided to expand the asset repurchase program by 100 billion pounds. Yesterday, the head of the BA said that before starting to raise the interest rate, it is necessary to unload the balance of the Central Bank. Andrew Bailey had nothing more interesting or important to say. Therefore, his words also could not provide any support for the British currency. Therefore, we come to the same conclusion as for the euro/dollar pair. It is not the pound that is rising at this time, but the US dollar that is declining. But the reasons for the latter can now be found in an enormous number.

We have already noted that you can find reasons and motives for anything in earlier articles. Any drop or increase in the currency market can be "explained". The only question is whether this explanation is true. We believe that the only reason why the US currency may fall now is the distrust of traders and investors in the dollar against the backdrop of the escalating situation between China and the US, as well as against the backdrop of the political crisis that is heating up in the United States. The crisis, like the escalation of the conflict, is not a one-minute event. As a rule, all market players have plenty of time to assess the current situation and make a decision on which assets to transfer their funds to. Thus, the fact that the US dollar began to fall in price only in the last month, in principle, is not surprising. It is in the last month that more and more criticism has fallen on Donald Trump, and his name is no longer associated with the prosperity of the country. Moreover, as the proverb says, "there is no smoke without fire", and recently we have more and more often become witnesses of smoke that can come from under the trade agreement between Beijing and Washington. Plus, do not forget that in the United States, "coronavirus" continues to spread. Recently, a record number of cases of the disease was recorded in 8 states, so there is no question of suppressing the epidemic now. Moreover, the very topic of "coronavirus" has disappeared from the front pages of periodicals in the United States. Anthony Fauci no longer speaks, and Donald Trump himself does not touch on the topic of "coronavirus", probably realizing that this topic does not benefit him at all. But Trump happily began his campaign tour of American cities, ignoring all the warnings of doctors. However, as we wrote earlier, Americans are not all ready to blindly follow the calls of Trump and most of them are people who are afraid of the COVID-2019 virus. Moreover, quite a large part of Americans are not going to risk their health and the health of their loved ones to see their president firsthand. In the American city of Tulsa, Oklahoma, where Trump held his first campaign rally, the stadium, which is designed for 19 thousand seats, was filled by about a third. "Tomorrow we will have a wild night in Oklahoma," the president promised before the rally. "Wild evening" didn't work out. It turned out to be a "sad evening". Trump's headquarters, which claimed that more than a million requests to attend the event were received, disgraced the whole world and urgently had to get out of it, saying that the low turnout was due to "Black Lives Matter" protesters who allegedly blocked the roads to the stadium. And from all that happened in Tulsa, we can draw several conclusions. First, the protesting Americans are against Trump. If, as representatives of the American President's staff say, they blocked access to the stadium. And there are a lot of protesters in America. Secondly, the Americans were not particularly eager to support their leader even without the protesters, since their health is much more important. Third, a whole movement called "don't go to a Trump rally" has been launched on the Internet. People left requests for access to the stadium, not intending to go there at all. The "cherry on the cake" was the information that everyone who went to the stadium was forced to sign a paper about the absence of claims against Trump in the case of COVID-2019 disease.

No major events or news are scheduled for Wednesday, June 24 in the UK and the US. There will only be a hearing of the report on inflation in Britain, but inflation itself does not play any significant role now. Thus, tomorrow will be an empty day in terms of macroeconomic and fundamental events. Unless Donald Trump or other White House officials come up with new surprises. And they clearly can.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair continues to remain stable and is currently 120 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this indicator is "high". On Wednesday, June 24, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2395 and 1.2634. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will indicate a possible resumption of the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2451

S2 – 1.2390

S3 – 1.2329

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2512

R2 – 1.2573

R3 – 1.2634

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar pair broke the moving average line on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today, continue buying the pound/dollar pair with the goals of 1.2573 and 1.2634 and keep the longs open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to sell the pound/dollar pair not earlier than the reverse consolidation of quotes below the moving average with the first goals of 1.2451 and 1.2395.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 24. A new batch of "funny stories" from the United States. China can "finish off" Donald

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 165.8031

For the euro/dollar currency pair, the second trading day of the week was again in an upward movement. The pair's quotes are fixed above the moving average line, so the bears have shown their weakness at this time, and the US dollar is not ready for further growth. We are a little surprised by this development, as we did not expect a new growth of the European currency. However, in almost every article, we draw the attention of traders to the fact that technical factors are primarily important now, since the markets are not in a state of panic, however, there is not too much logic in trading now. Thus, the best option is to follow the trend, and you need to pay attention to the fundamental and macroeconomic factors, but only after evaluating the technical picture. Today, the euro has again started to rise in price, and it is unclear whether these macroeconomic statistics for once caused the reaction of traders, or whether market participants were ready to sell the US currency again without data on business activity in the European Union. Complex issue. Analyzing the latest COT reports on the euro and pound, we came to the unequivocal conclusion that in the last two or three weeks, the demand for these currencies did not grow much. That is, traders did not buy the two currencies at breakneck speed, however, they showed significant growth. Thus, as before, we can conclude that the reasons should be sought in the United States. Most likely, the US currency is subject to market pressure, which leads to the growth of its competitors. Indirectly, this theory is confirmed by almost identical movements of the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs in recent weeks. As for today, quite unexpectedly, macroeconomic statistics turned out to be very important. Recall that in Germany, France, and the European Union, business activity indices for June (preliminary data) will be released today, which showed a significant increase in this very activity. In France, all three indices went above 50.0 in this way, both in production and in services. Thus, there was a revival and growth. In Germany, the picture is slightly worse. In the manufacturing sector, the index was 44.6, in the service sector – 45.8, and the composite – 45.8. All three indices are significantly higher than the forecast values. Thus, in Germany, there is no recovery in these industries. We are only talking about slowing down the decline, however, the figures themselves are very encouraging. The picture in the European Union is no less optimistic. Business activity in the manufacturing sector increased to 47.5, and in the service sector – to 47.3. All three indices were significantly higher than forecasts here. Thus, in general, market participants could start new purchases of the European currency based on this information. Business activity in the United States also turned out to be significantly higher than forecasts, and the index for the manufacturing sector was almost 50-49.6.

While traders rejoiced at the strong data on business activity, top US officials continue to entertain and mislead market participants. In other words, it is impossible to describe what happened that night. In a live broadcast on FOX News (a channel that supports Donald Trump), the US president's chief trade adviser said that "the deal with China is terminated". And no matter what anyone says, we will never believe that such a high-ranking official just "blurted" the wrong thing on live TV. Just a few hours later, Donald Trump himself announced via his favorite Twitter that the deal with Beijing remains in force. "The trade deal with China has not changed. I hope they will continue to comply with the terms of the agreement," Trump wrote. Interestingly, Peter Navarro explained his statement by saying that US intelligence was convinced that the "coronavirus" was developed in a Chinese laboratory and it was from this laboratory that it broke free. A little later, Navarro himself said that he did not mean the termination of the deal, however, the lack of trust in the Chinese authorities. Donald Trump himself did not comment on Navarro's words at all and did not explain what his adviser meant. The official position of Beijing and Washington is that both sides continue and want to continue the trade agreement. However, a few weeks ago, the media "slipped" information that Beijing recommended that Chinese companies stop or reduce the purchase of American agricultural products, which was supposed to increase according to the agreement and buy 30-40 billion dollars annually. In general, the situation is beginning to be unstable again.

Analysts and experts reacted ambiguously to such "funny stories" from American officials. More and more experts believe that the trade deal is on the verge of collapse and if it is terminated (there are rumors that the document contains the so-called "force majeure" clause, according to which Beijing can withdraw from the agreement), it will first of all hit Donald Trump personally, who will lose his last trump card before the upcoming presidential elections. In principle, this topic (the presidential election and the confrontation with China) is now the most important and significant for the US dollar, the United States, and Trump personally. We believe that China will make sure that it is Joe Biden who becomes the new US President. It is not known what methods are used. However, for sure, Beijing can support Biden. One way or another, it is unlikely that Beijing will support Trump, thanks to whom the countries were 18 months in a state of a trade war, and now most of the duties remain in effect. Thus, the next 4 months may be extremely important for all participants in this saga. It is possible that the US dollar again began to experience problems precisely because of the high probability of termination of the deal and the political crisis that the country is now in. Plus, do not forget that the "coronavirus" in the United States continues to spread as if nothing had happened, although officials continue to deny the existence of a "second wave". There is no second wave in the US since the country has not yet coped with the first one. Did you notice how abruptly and quickly Anthony Fauci, the country's chief epidemiologist, who constantly refuted Donald Trump's statements, disappeared from the air?

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 24 is 92 points. Thus, the value of the indicator is still characterized as "high", but in general, volatility continues to decrease. We expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1221 and 1.1405. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of downward movement, however, the trend has already changed to an upward one.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair is fixed above the moving average. Thus, at this time, it is recommended to trade for an increase with the goals of 1.1353, 1.1405, and 1.1475, before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to return to selling the pair not before fixing the price below the moving average with the first goal of 1.1108.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 24. COT report. Buyers have revitalized and will move the pound

GBP/USD 1H

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The pound/dollar pair was also adjusted against the trend supported by the downward channel, and then completely left it through the upper line. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair has also changed to growth. However, the situation is much more complicated for this instrument than for the euro. Both technically and fundamentally. Firstly, quotes crossed the upward trend line a few days ago, so the upward movement is absolutely not obvious. Secondly, unlike the EUR/USD pair, there are no technical factors left that would support trading on the rise now. There is no growth channel, no upward trend line. Thus, the position of buyers is not that confident now. Nevertheless, we expect upward movement to continue in the framework of the general trend of the dollar's fall.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels reversed their direction on the 15-minute timeframe. Thus, market participants have the right to count on continued upward movement today.

COT Report

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The latest COT report, which covers the dates June 10-16, shows that during this time period, professional market players were busy closing sales contracts. That is, the picture for the reporting week was observed exactly the same as for the euro. Demand increased during the indicated period, but not because the pound or the euro became more expensive. On the contrary, demand for the dollar decreased, and traders closed Sell contracts, which led to the growth of European currencies. This is precisely what we told traders to focus their attention on earlier, since there were simply no special reasons to buy the euro and the pound in recent weeks. Nevertheless, both currencies rose. It is also worth noting that during the reporting week, speculators also closed purchase contracts, hedgers closed both types of contracts, and in general, the pound lost about 32,000 more contracts. Thus, banks, large companies, investment funds and others were engaged in closing all types of transactions during the reporting week, rather than opening contracts. However, this week the pair shows their desire to move up. The new COT report, which will be released on Friday, will show if demand for the pound has grown this time among professional traders.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair continues to be more negative than positive. Market participants continue to push the pound/dollar pair, and not pull it down. If in the case of the euro, you can find enough reasons and grounds for strengthening the single currency. In the case of the pound, we recall all the problems of the British economy, which a priori cannot be correlated with the continued growth of the British currency. Of course, we understand that it's a sin not to use the chances of selling the dollar provided personally by US President Donald Trump, however, they look strange along with the pound. Everything is also strange in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Yesterday's index of business activity in the UK turned out to be much better than experts' forecasts, but, as we already said, US indexes were no weaker. As a result, the pound rose in price anyway. Thus, if traders pay attention to the foundation when opening trading positions now, then it is the negative fundamental background from the United States, and not the macroeconomics or no less negative background from the UK. Well, this is the decision of most market participants, and we recommend that you do not trade against the trend and do not try to guess the long-term movement of the pair.

There are two main scenarios as of June 24:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair passed into the hands of buyers. Therefore, it is now recommended to resume trading on a fall but not before consolidating the pair below the critical Kijun-sen line (1.2450) and the support area of 1.2404-1.2424. In this case it will be possible to talk about a new potential movement to go down with a target of 1.2229. Potential Take Profit in this case will be about 150 points.

2) But buyers have every chance to implement their strategies. Thus, we advise you to buy the GBP/USD pair with targets at the resistance level of 1.2573 - Senkou Span B line (1.2632) - resistance area of 1.2719-1.2759 - resistance level of 1.2801. Overcoming each target will allow you to stay in longs. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 80 to 250 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 24. COT report. Traders are not considering the option of long-term

EUR/USD 1H

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Buyers managed to pull out the EUR/USD pair from the downward channel on the hourly timeframe on June 23. The pair's quotes continued to grow after that, however, traders could not overcome the resistance area of 1.1326-1.1343 the first time. This area is not the first time that slows down the pair's movement and acts as support/resistance. Thus, at the moment, we can conclude that the bears lost the initiative, and the bulls took a serious step towards forming a new upward trend. Now, if they manage to overcome the 1.1326-1.1343 area as well, then chances of forming an upward trend will increase many times, and the first goal will be the resistance level of 1.1417, which was already reached earlier. It should also be noted that both upward trend lines continue to remain in force, thus, the bulls continue to dominate the market in the long term.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed upward on the 15-minute timeframe, so the trend has changed to an upward one in the short term and continues to be so.

COT Report

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The euro/dollar pair steadily rose until June 16 (the deadline, data for which is included in the latest COT report) and was only adjusted in recent days. According to the COT report, professional traders were busy during the entire reporting week not with opening purchase contracts, which could be assumed based on the direction the pair was moving, but with closing sale contracts. In just five days, professional traders closed almost 20,000 Sell contracts and at the same time opened 1,300 Long Euro contracts. Thus, the continued strengthening of the European currency at that time was absolutely logical. But for the second week in a row, we emphasize that large market players do not buy the euro, and therefore do not believe in the prospects of this currency. The euro grew for two weeks almost at the mere closure of contracts for sale by large speculators, which caused a skew of supply and demand for the euro. After a relatively small correction, the European currency resumed its upward movement, and the new COT report will answer the question whether the demand for the euro has increased this time, or is it going up again not because market participants buy it?

The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair did not change at all on Tuesday. From our point of view, it remains more neutral. However, traders continue to buy the EUR/USD pair (not the same as buying the euro), therefore, willy-nilly, but you have to think about the reasons for this kind of behavior of market participants. Yesterday, Markit business activity indices for Germany, France and the EU turned out to be significantly higher than forecasts and indeed allowed us to draw optimistic conclusions about the recovery of the production and services sectors. However, no less encouraging information came from overseas. Nevertheless, the euro has risen in price again, but the US dollar has not. Since the upward trend continues to remain in force (two upward trend lines), it seems that traders continue to look with skepticism towards everything that happens in the United States. In principle, the dream of US President Donald Trump came true. After all, from the very first day of his presidential term he dreamed that the dollar should be cheaper, which, at the very least, it would make it easier to service the US public debt. Now the dollar is falling not because of all the events that takes place in the country. We have already repeatedly described it in fundamental articles. Thus, we still recommend trading primarily on the basis of technical factors, which now speak in favor of continuing the pair's growth.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 24:

1) Bears could not dominate for a longer period than one week. Now, in order for sellers to once again begin to show their presence in the market, they will have to wait until the price consolidates below the critical line and at least below the first upward trend line. In this case, we recommend selling the euro with targets at support levels of 1.1112 and 1.1047. Potential Take Profit is from 70 to 140 points.

2) But the buyers perked up and take the initiative in the market. Therefore, we advise you to wait for the 1.1326-1.1341 area to be overcome and buy the EUR/USD pair while aiming for the resistance level of 1.1417. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 70 points.

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New trend: dollar is preparing for a powerful collapse

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Despite the upward trend, it was noticeable that the upward momentum of the dollar is on the verge of completion. Yes, it strengthened over the course of four sessions, but trade went in a narrow range. The seller's sluggish attempt to test 97.00 points was a success on Monday. The dollar tried to hint at the possibility of growth on Tuesday, but buyers of the US currency did not have enough strength and arguments. The fall in the dollar index intensified at the US session, signaling the resumption of a downward trend.

The greenback broke through the lower border of the rising flag, which has a bearish character. Everything that is happening now is a clear sign of the impending decline. It is possible that there is an active exchange between sellers and buyers, but even dollar bulls most likely want to sell from a higher mark.

Traders are waiting for the price to retreat to the psychological mark of 95.00 points.

USDX

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There is speculation that the dollar's current decline will continue as US stock indices and Federal Reserve policy officials rise, suggesting lower rates and aggressive quantitative easing. This, as we know, negatively affects the return on dollar assets.

The unstable domestic political situation in the country and uncertainty about the presidential elections in November add to the negative for the greenback. Traders looking to reduce the dollar also believe that the increase in the number of infected in the United States is not enough to introduce new quarantine measures. The trade agreement, despite recent attacks by the White House adviser, continues to be valid. There is no need to go into defensive assets.

Improving international trade relations has a positive effect on the development of the global economy, increasing risk appetite and stimulating stock market growth. Now there is a high degree of correlation between the dynamics of the US securities market and the dollar. The rise in stock indicators, in particular the Dow Jones, is accompanied by a weakening dollar, which we have at the moment.

Dow Jones

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Leading researcher at Yale University and the former head of Morgan Stanley Asia expressed his conclusion about the dynamics of the dollar. He believes that the coronavirus pandemic provokes a "response" of the population. Together with "active fiscal stimulus, this will undermine the savings rate and lead to an increase in the current account deficit." In this situation, the dollar may fall by 30-35%.

In general, opinions regarding the future direction of the dollar are multidirectional. Some market players are confident that the decline in the dollar will be short-lived.

US President Donald Trump slightly pacified his foreign trade appetites, but there are still a lot of unresolved problems in this direction. Sufficiently complicated trade relations remain with the European Union. Americans still retain duties on China's goods worth $360 billion. In addition, the deterioration of geopolitical tensions in Asia and the increase in the incidence of coronavirus in the United States may in the medium term cause demand for protective assets, which include the dollar.

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