Global macro overview for 15/02/2018

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, measuring activity in the New York area, fell to 13.1 from 17.7 in January, while it was expected to rise to 18. In contrast, the Fed index from Philadelphia jumped to 25.8 from 22.2 with a forecast of 21 6. Maybe the last week's sudden drops on Wall Street was more reflected in the mood among entrepreneurs from the New York area only?

In the other news, the number of unemployment claims increased last week by 7,000. up to 230k (threshold 228k, previously 221k). Despite the increase, it should be remembered that it is still a relatively low level anyway. The PPI number was released at the expected level of 0.4% after -0.1% slide last month.( PPI measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation). It confirms yesterdays better than expected CPI data and indicates rising inflationary pressure.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. In general, this recent data package is another reason (after claims for benefits) that the USD is being still sold across the board. The market is now approaching the technical support at the level of 88.45 after a failed attempt to break through the black channel dynamic resistance around the level of 90.50.The market conditions are oversold and some kind of bounce is being expected.

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BITCOIN Analysis for February 15, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with bullish swings which has recently retested the $10,000 price area. As for the recent bullish pressure in the Bitcoin market, the price is expected to push much higher after it clears $10,000 price area with a daily close in the coming days. After a lot of regulators trying to regulate bitcoin which led the price for a drastic fall, the stable bullish gains indicate overcoming the obstacle with an objective of further bullish gains in the future. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to proceed higher above $10,000 price area from where the price is expected continue its impulsive bullish run towards $12,000 in the coming days. As the price remains above $7,500 price area, the bullish pressure is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for February 15, 2018

EUR/GBP has been quite impulsive with bullish swings, bouncing off the 0.8750 price area inside the volatile corrective range between 0.8750 and 0.90. The recent positive economic reports from the eurozone helped EUR to gain momentum against GBP quite well. The pair is expected to continue its consolidation inside a trading range until a breakout from the range. Today, Italian Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 5.25B from the previous figure of 4.84B which was expected to be at 4.44B and the eurozone's Trade Balance was also published with an increase to 23.8B from the previous figure of 22.0B which was expected to be at 22.4B. Despite upbeat economic reports, EUR failed to sustain the bullish momentum which was expected. Ahead of the UK Retail Sales report which is expected to be positive at 0.5%, increasing from the previous negative value of -1.5%, the market sentiment has already shifting towards the GBP side. Today, the UK does not present economic reports to support it gains while positive economic reports from the eurozone indicates the market sentiment favoring GBP ahead of the economic reports. As for the current scenario, the corrective indecision is expected to continue in this pair until the price breaks out of this range whereas GBP is expected to gain momentum for the coming days over EUR.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently holding at the edge of the trend line support above 0.8850 area. If the price breaks below 0.8850 which is also the trend line support, the price is expected to proceed lower towards the support area of 0.8700-50. Otherwise, a bounce off the trend line is expected to inject bullish pressure in the pair with a target towards 0.90. As the price remains inside the range between 0.8750 and 0.90, the corrective range is expected to continue.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 15, 2018

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has gained about 250 pips this week... Having tested the resistance line at 1.2500. There has been a minor bearish retracement after the resistance line was tested, but price would go upwards again to test the resistance line and breach it to the upside. This would make the market target another resistance line at 1.3000.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair has continued its slow and gradual bearish movement, having shed about 120 pips this week. Price is now testing the support level at 0.9250 and it would breach it to the downside, as another demand level at 0.9200 is targeted. As long as the EUR/USD pair is strong, USD/CHF would be going bearish.

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GBP/USD: A bullish signal has been generated on the Cable, as price went north by 260 pips, after its failure to breach the accumulation territory at 1.3800. A further northwards journey can help the market reach the distribution territory at 1.4100. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they may have an impact on the market.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has been engaged in a smooth, clean bearish movement for this week. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is now above the level 50. Since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is expected that price should be able to go below the demand level at 106.50, and remain below it.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross is a choppy and rough market (though the overall bias remains bearish). There is a subtle consolidation to the downside, which may become so serious, once the demand zone at 131.50 is breached to the downside. By then, the bearishness in the market could have become stronger.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 15, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.

A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed. This enhances the bearish scenario initially towards the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7165 where recent bullish recovery was expressed.

Bearish fixation below 0.7160 is needed to allow further bearish decline towards 0.7090.

On the other hand, the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) remains a significant supply zone to be watched for possible bearish rejection and another SELL entry. Stop Loss should be placed above 0.7470.

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Global macro overview for 15/02/2018

January inflation undoubtedly exceeded expectations by both the general outlook (0.5% m / m, 0.3% threshold) and core inflation (0.3%, 0.2% threshold). Even the disappointing decline in retail sales (-0.3%, 0.2%) is up for defense if the above-average increases from November and December are taken into account. The economy is doing well, but inflationary pressure is pushing, and the Fed may raise interest rates faster than previously expected. It looks like a very positive signal for the US Dollar, and at the same time a reason for the sale of shares, as in the case of the NFP report at the beginning of February. And yet, at the end of the Thursday's trade (there is no difference from the rest today), the USD was losing everywhere, where it could.

One can debate that since inflation is accelerating in the US, it will also be higher in other parts of the globe, hence, not only the Fed will be more aggressive in monetary tightening. For this reason, after yesterday's data, the USD advantage over other currencies does not have to increase significantly. It was forgotten that the bond market is decisive for market interest rates. It was also forgotten that the level of the 3.0% profitability was to be dangerous for the economy. After the initial decline in indices (small), they quickly returned to the neutral level, and this gave birth to conviction: profitability is invalid, inflation is invalid, the important thing is that the US Dollar loses, commodities gain, and the correction is over. This is why the US Dollar is still losing mostly across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has managed to test the golden trend line again at the level of 1.2508 as it broke through all of the technical resistance on its way up. Currently, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2539 (swing high), and the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2434. Please notice the overbought market conditions and a possible bearish divergence forming at the momentum indicator.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 15, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2250 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750.

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Daily Outlook

In September, a bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was projected towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, in November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish momentum to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 is needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2750.

However, a recent bearish pullback was being expressed below the price level of 1.2350. This may extend towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 15, 2018

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair keeps trading downwards from the level of 0.9286. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term, testing 0.9195 or lower. This week, the bearish channel is still strong because the pair dropped from the level of 0.9286 which coincides with the ratio of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels to the bottom around 0.9229. The price is still set below the area of 0.9286. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9286 followed by 0.9321, while the daily support 1 is found at 0.9229. Besides, the level of 0.9257 represents a daily pivot point for that it is acting as the minor support today. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the USD/CHF pair is declining from the new resistance line of 0.9257 towards the first support level at 0.9229. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.9229, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below it. Sell below 0.9280/0.9260 with the first target at 0.9229 and the next one at 0.9195. The bearish scenario suggests that the pair will settle below the spot of 0.9280/0.9260. Otherwise, if the USD/CHF pair manages to break out the level of 0.9286, the market will rise further to 0.9349.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 15, 2018

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 0.7367 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7367 which represents the daily pivot point on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7390. So, buy above the level of 0.7390 with the first target at 0.7419 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 0.7419 (double top) is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.7419, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 0.7449 today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7326, a further decline to 0.7268 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.
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Bitcoin analysis for February 15, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $9.909. Seven major crypto companies operating in the UK have announced the formation an independent cryptocurrency trade body. The group, CryptoUK, has stated that its principal aim is to "improve industry standards and engage policymakers." The technical picture looks overbought.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H time - frame, I found that Bitcoin is testing major resistance at the price of $9.860. I also found Fibonacci retracement 61.8% around the level of $9.860, which is another sign that buying at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $9.021 and at the price of $8.280.

Support/Resistance

$9.860 – Intraday resistance

$9.440 – Intraday support

$9.021 – Objective target 1

$8.280 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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EUR/USD analysis for February 15, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2510. Anyway, according to the 30M time-frame, I found that the price failed to test a pivot resistance 1 at 1.2515, which is a sign that buyers lost power. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2395.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2518

R2: 1.2585

R3: 1.2710

Support levels:

S1: 1.2330

S2: 1.2210

S3: 1.2145

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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USD/JPY analysis fo February 15, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 106.17. Anyway, according to the 30M time-frame, I found a falling wedge pattern in creation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator and a morning start candle formation, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 107.52.

Resistance levels:

R1: 107.70

R2: 108.40

R3: 108.87

Support levels:

S1: 106.50

S2: 106.03

S3: 105.35

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for 15/02/2018

The seven largest cryptocurrency companies in the world joined forces to create CryptoUK, the first of its kind, a trade association whose aim is self-regulation in the British digital currency industry. CryptoUK consists of global trading platforms and cryptocurrency services: Coinbase, eToro, CryptoCompare, CEX.IO, BlockEx, CoinShares and CommerceBlock.

CryptoUK intends to work with the UK government to comply with a code of conduct that will help prevent money laundering and other illegal activities involving Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and better protect customers. However, the group will not deal with the regulation of ICO, the area of the cryptocurrency industry, which is widely criticized by regulators around the world.

CryptoUK President and Managing Director of eToro, Iqbal Gandham, stated that the new self-regulatory body aims to promote best practices and cooperation with the government and regulators, adding that the company will become a model for the future regulatory framework. Last week, the head of the American Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Brian Quintenz, suggested that the cryptocurrency community should create their own regulatory system or self-regulatory organization (SRO) to avoid the government's harder hand.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has finally broken above the local resistance at the level of $9,146 and tested the key resistance at the level of $9,515. Now the market is just under the weekly pivot resistance at the level of $9,837 and it might want to go higher towards the level of $10,000 and then $10,999.

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Trading plan for 15/02/2018

The growing stock market indices and the weaker USD sentiment remained on the Asian part of the session. USD/JPY deepens declines, and comments from the Japanese government do not bother. Data from the Australian labor market fell short of expectations, although with a deeper analysis they are not too good. The liquidity is limited due to the start of the New Moon Year celebrations in many Asian countries.

On Thursday, 15 February, the event calendar is quite busy with important news releases. The market participants should keep an eye on Trade Balance data from the Eurozone, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data from Canada, PPI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims data from the US.

AUD/USD analysis for 15/02/2018:

In Australia, employment in January increased by 16k versus the expected 15k increase, and the unemployment rate amounted to 5.5%. However, the details of the report do not look good. Full-time employment fell by 49.8k (a month earlier +1.1k), and part-time employment increased by 65.9k(vs 19.5k).

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the 38% and 50% Fibo retracement and is currently heading towards the 61% at the level of 0.7987. The momentum is quite strong, but the market starts to enter the overbought territory. A reversal or pull-back is expected at the level of 0.7987.

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Market Snapshot: DAX is trying to bounce higher?

The price of German DAX index did not make a new local low, but instead, bounced a little higher and left the long shadow up candle. This might suggest another attempt to test the recent technical resistance at the level of 12,503 and then 12,623. The stock indicator is bouncing off the oversold territory, confirming the upwards bias.

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Market Snapshot: SPY has the lower high in view

The price of SPY (SP500 ETF) has made its way towards the previous lower high at the level of 272.32, accompanied by the strong upward momentum. Currently, the price is trading at the level of 269.64, and it is breaking through all of the minor resistance. The mentioned level is the key resistance to the upside.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for February 15, 2018

The Dollar index bounced off the cloud support after the CPI report yesterday. Initial reaction was in favor of the Dollar but soon trend reversed lower and price broke below the crucial support of 89.60.

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Red line - resistance trend line

The Dollar index broke below the Kumo support once again changing trend to bearish for the short-term. Support at 89.60 broke again yesterday and this was a very bearish signal. Resistance is now at 89.60.

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The rejection at the kijun-sen and the daily close below the tenkan-sen yesterday are very bearish signs for the Dollar index. The index is expected to make new lows below the January lows. Target is around 87.50. Trend is bearish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for February 15, 2018

Gold price reacted negatively after the CPI report yesterday, as Dollar strengthened, but very fast afterwards price reversed upwards and took back all its losses. Price was then trading at the $1,334 resistance are by our Kumo (cloud). As Dollar weakened, Gold price broke above next resistance at $1,344 and moved back above the $1,350 long-term resistance.

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Blue trend line - resistance (broken)

Gold price broke above the 4 hour Ichimoku cloud turning short-term trend to bullish again. Price as we said yesterday was challenging the cloud resistance. After the CPI report came out, Gold pulled back towards the 4-hour kijun-sen support at $1,317 and bounced back up strongly above the cloud. The reversal together with the weakening of the Dollar has given Gold a big push higher towards $1,350.

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Magenta - long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

Long-term trend remains bullish as price is above the Kumo (cloud). Gold price is back above the long-term resistance. This is a very bullish sign. Gold bulls need to hold above this level and continue higher towards $1,390 which is the next target. Support is at $1,335 and next at $1,326. A break below these levels, will be very bearish for Gold. So far bulls remain in control.

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Breaking forecast 02/14/2018

Breaking forecast 02/14/2018

EURUSD: The range.

We closed the deal to buy the euro on profit (the buying was from 1.2300).

A strong pullback down is very likely, especially on inflation data in the US today at 12:30 London time.

Euro moves in range condition.

Our orders:

Buy for breakdown of 1.2525; stop at 1.2480; profit at 1.2625.

Sell on breakdown of 1.2205; stop at 1.2250; profit at 1.2100.

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Euro, pound, oil: main trends

Eurozone

In the absence of significant macroeconomic news and unstable equilibrium in the markets after the recent collapse, ECB officials remained silent and did not comment on any prospects for monetary policy nor recent developments in the markets.

In an economic bulletin published a few days ago, the ECB said that core inflation continues to be under pressure and that the recent surge in enthusiasm is a thing of the past. There is no sign of a reliable upward trend. Some positive news is the increase in the average wage but there is no sustainable trend according to this criterion. Inflation expectations are consistently below the 2% target and the risk of deflation remains.

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It becomes clear as to why the ECB does not dare to announce the end of the incentive period despite a record growth in the trade balance and overall economic activity. Perhaps tomorrow's speech from the chief economist of the ECB Praet at a joint conference of the IMF and the French Ministry of Finance will give some impetus to the euro but at the moment, the ball is being ruled by technical factors which are in favor of the euro. The EURUSD pair formed a new support for the level of 1.2206. It is higher than the previous 1.2165 so the threat of testing the level of 1.2537 remains high.

United Kingdom

Consumer inflation for the month of January remained at the level of 3.0% which coincided with the level of December and was a tenth of a percent higher than analysts' forecasts. The base index also increased from 2.5% to 2.7%, exceeding the forecast.

The result is unpleasant for the Bank of England, which last week announced its desire to return inflation to the 2% target for two and not three years, as previously planned.

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At the moment, the market estimates the probability of a rate hike for the meeting in May at 70% and the probability of another increase by the end of the year at 50%.

If we compare inflation with an increase in the average wage then this comparison will not be in its favor. This means that the real income of citizens fell and the UK economy, largely dependent on the state of consumer demand, may face difficulties in trying to accelerate recovery.

Since February 8, the pound is weaker against the euro. The reason is that the issue of financial activities of banks and corporations after the "division of property" can be resolved not in the favor of London. While Britain remains part of the EU, London remains the financial center. However, after the separation, Europe can block the work of financial centers if they remain under the jurisdiction of the queen. Negotiations on this item are particularly difficult since the crux of the matter is where banks and financial corporations will pay taxes.

Technically, the pound is locked in the range of 1.3723 / 4065. The explicit driver is not traced to either go south or north. The most likely scenario is the continuation of the trade in the lateral range.

Oil

The situation with oil continues to develop according to the laws. The collapse of quotations, which occurred in early February, is associated by most experts with the rapid increase in production in the US. This allegedly creates a threat to excess production. However, a number of other estimates indicate that the reason may not be the increase in production but the threat of a slowdown in global trade, as the fall of markets has sharply increased when US President Trump announced plans to revise trade tariffs with key partners.

Russia remains in the frames of OPEC +. The head of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, Novak, is not waiting for the balance of demand and supply earlier than the end of this year but for the time being, an agreement has been reached where there are no objective reasons for the collapse of quotations. While the trade goes above the key level for Brent at 60.90, the chances of price recovery remain.

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