EUR/NZD : analysis for December 25, 2015




Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.5999. We can observe low volatily due to bank holidays.In the daily time frame, I found a weak supply bar and a strong head-and-shoulders confirmed formation (a broken neckline). According to the 30M time frame, I found 2 climatic actions in background and a strong up-thrust bar in an ultra high volume (sign of weakness).The price again broke the 200 SMA. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since lower prices are expected. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the level of 1.6070 (broken), Fibonacci expansion 100% is at the level of 1.5840, and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% is seen at the level of 1.5470.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6122

R2: 1.6155

R3: 1.6210

Support levels:

S1: 1.6010

S2: 1.5980

S3: 1.5925

Trading recommendations : Buying EUR/NZD looks very risky at this stage since the price confirmed the head-and-shoulders formation. Watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Gold : analysis for December 25 , 2015




Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,074.86. In the daily time frame, I found a weak supply bar, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The short-term trend is upward. In the 30M-time frame, we can observe successful re-testing of our channel and breakout of bullish flag, which made a good buy point around the price of $1,072.00. Also, price is above all moving averages on the M30 time frame.The first resistance is seen at the level of $1,080.00 and second at $1,088.70. The key price action resistance is around the price of $1,100.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,073.80

R2: 1,075.10

R3: 1,077.10

Support levels:

S1: 1,069.80

S2: 1,068.50

S3: 1,066.50

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunites, selling looks risky.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 25, 2015

EUR/USD: Though the movement of the EUR/USD pair looks deceptive, long trades would be rational with it. This is because the EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the Williams' % Range period 20 is not far from the overbought region. It is even drifting upwards. The resistance lines at 1.0950 and 1.0000 are likely to be reached within the next several trading days.


USD/CHF: This pair has only consolidated so far this week, owing to the perceived quietness in the market. This week, the price has oscillated between the resistance level at 0.9950 and the support level at 0.9850. A break out of this trading range may be possible next week because some serious movement is anticipated.


GBP/USD: What has happened to the Cable so far is what can be termed a rally in the context of an uptrend. The price has been going upward gradually since Wednesday, while the outlook on the market remains bearish. Only a movement above the distribution territory at 1.5050 would render the bearish outlook invalid; otherwise, the current rally would be logically taken for another short-selling opportunity.


USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has trended nicely downwards this week. The price has moved down by 110 pips, now below the supply level at 120.50, and going towards the demand level at 120.00. There is a very strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart; plus the price is likely to go further south when the market regains momentum.


EUR/JPY: The upward bounce we witnessed on this cross on Monday and Tuesday this week has proven to be an opportunity to sell short. The price has come down after that, trying the demand zone at 131.50 – which might be breached to the downside soon.


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