Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 05, 2018

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USD/CAD is expected to continue its upside movement. The pair is holding on the upside after today's upward acceleration due to better than expected data. The rising 50-period moving average is playing a support role. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. Therefore, as long as 1.2975 is not broken, look for a new challenge with targets at 1.3125 and 1.3160 in extension.

Fundamental Overview: As far as today's data is concerned Canada's official international reserves declined $1.44 billion in May, the federal Finance Department reported Today. At May 31, the reserves of foreign currencies, gold and other monetary assets totaled $80.78 billion, down from $82.22 billion a month earlier. All reserve figures are reported in U.S. funds. The government reported no official intervention in the foreign-currency market in May and there were no gold holdings at the end of the month.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 1.3125, 1.3160, 1.3185

Support levels: 1.2975, 1.2940, 1.2895

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 05, 2018

GBP/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a strong rebound today after the data, and also managed to hold above its key horizontal support at 1.3330, which is expected to limit any downside room. The 50-period moving average is heading upward now, and should continue to push the prices higher. In which case, as long as 1.3330 is not broken, likely advance to 1.3395 and 1.3440 in extension.

Fundamental Overview: According to data release earlier today, activity in the U.K.'s dominant services sector picked up in May, adding to recent indications the economy is rebounding from a weak start to the year. The U.K. economy slowed sharply in the first quarter, prompting the Bank of England to forgo a flagged rise in its key interest rate at their May meeting. However, officials signaled that they still expect to tighten policy if that slowdown proves to be short-lived, as they believe it will.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3440, 1.3475

Support levels: 1.3295, 1.3275, 1.3235

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for June 5, 2018

EUR/JPY

This cross was able to continue its bullish journey yesterday – though that was a slight movement. Price is now close to the supply level at 126.50 (and it has tested it). It may even breach it to the upside, but there would be an eventually reversal, to go along with the bearish outlook on the market.

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This week, a bearish reversal is expected, because of the weakness in EUR and owing to the bearish outlook on JPY pairs. The bearish reversal would enable sellers to enter short at some sensible prices (only if it occurs)

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for June 5, 2018

USD/JPY

The market attempted to resume its bullish journey on June 4. Since testing the demand level at 108.50, price has bounced upwards by 150 pips, and it is close to the supply level at 110.00. The short-term bearishness is still in place and it is supposed to override the long-term bullish bias on the market.

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The long-term bullishness would soon be rendered invalid. This is because there is a very strong bearish outlook on JPY pairs this month, and so, USD/JPY would eventually become like other JPY pairs, which are already bearish. A continuation of the rally in the market would render this invalid.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for June 5, 2018

USD/CHF

The bias on the market has remained unchanged (bearish), and the market did virtually nothing on Monday. USD/CHF has been moving downwards in the past few weeks; which was an unusual thing, considering the fact that it usually goes in a negative correlation with EUR/USD.

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However, the situation will change this week, as USD is expected to begin gathering stamina at some point (before the end of the week). This would aid a strong bullish reversal in USD/CHF and put more bearish pressure on EUR/USD. The bearish outlook on the USD/CHF is supposed to hold on for some time, until USD would be able to gather energy.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 5, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

On the other hand, If bearish momentum persists, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

The current bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) should be watched for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7100.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 5, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) failed to offer sufficient bullish demand when a descending high was established around the price level of 1.1980.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, significant bearish pressure is being applied since then.

As bearish momentum dominates, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) was maintained to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1520 and probably 1.1420.

The price zone (1.1520-1.1415) is considered a prominent Demand zone to be watched for bullish price action and valid BUY entries. Early signs of bullish rejection have already been expressed around 1.1500 (the upper limit of the depicted demand zone).

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) for valid SELL entries if the current bullish pullback persists.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 05, 2018

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EUR/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Despite the recent pullback from 1.1745 (the high of June 4), the pair is still trading above a support base at 1.1645, which has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. Even though a continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. To conclude, above 1.1645, look for a further advance with targets at 1.1720 and 1.1745 in extension.

Fundamental Overview: The U.S. dollar is slightly higher versus the euro on Tuesday, helped after eurozone retail sales data came in below market expectations.the dollar is under the radar as global trade war uncertainties come back on the agenda. With the G7 summit in Canada, the trade issue is even more prominent. The near term focus for financial markets is very much whether U.S. President Donald Trump can be talked down from his protectionist perch by fellow G7 leaders at their weekend meeting in Quebec.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 1.1720, 1.1745, 1.1785

Support levels: 1.1615, 1.1590, 1.1550

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for June 05, 2018

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair signaled that it is keeping the overall negative bias with a new negative close below the 147.70 resistance. On the other hand, the contradiction between the major indicators might force the price to provide some sideways trading until gathering the negative momentum followed by new downward trades to renew the pressure on 145.00 level, followed by the second target at 143.00. Stochastic reaches the overbought areas. It confirms that the price is about to get rid of the positive pressures. This paves the way to gather new negative momentum that confirms further bearish pressure. The expected trading range for today is between 147.00 and 145.00

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Daily analysis of Gold for June 05, 2018

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Overview

Gold is trading mainly sideways in a tight range until now. I prefer to keep the bearish scenario valid for today. This outlook is supported by the EMA50, depending on the price stability below $1,301.20 level. I expect to target $1,285.90 followed by $1,267.00 as next main stations. The expected trading range for today is between $1,275.00 support and $1,305.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for June 05, 2018

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Overview

Silver price did not show any strong move in the previous sessions. The price is still fluctuating around the EMA50 that keeps our outlook for the sideways trade valid. The price is confined between 16.15 support and 16.80 resistance and it needs to breach one of these levels to determine its next destination clearly. The expected trading range for today is between 16.20 support and 16.60 resistance.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendations for the USD / JPY currency pair as of June 5, 2018

The USD/JPY currency pair is showing an active upward interest as it reached 110.00, where it felt a periodic ceiling above itself. Now, we can see a completely rational pullback, showing moderate volatility. It is possible to assume the transition to the correction stage, but it is too early to speak of a deep movement, since the "bullish" interest may still be present on the market. From this point of view, it is possible to consider the first point at 109.40, where in case of a decline below 109.35, a deeper motion can be considered. Otherwise, after approaching the first point, we can quickly return to the level of 110.00, where a cluster with a new plot has begun to form.

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Global macro overview for 05/06/2018

The financial media reported that today is the start of a four-day visit of the British negotiating team in Brussels, where the topics are "future relations, Ireland, divorce cases". There is a field in each topic for the disappointing results and signs of the government's defeat, Prime Minister Theresa May. Speculations are also fueled by recent reports according to which the May government plans to postpone the publication of the next edition of the so-called White Paper, which was supposed to include plans for future relations with the EU. The document is to be released only in July, after the next EU summit on June 28-29. The change of the date is part of the voices of conflict and lack of consensus on key issues in the government itself. Secretary of Brexit Dawid Davis, one of the most ardent supporters of the prime minister, allegedly stated that the postponement is "disappointing". Previously, it was thought that publication of the document before the summit would give time for discussion and consultation of what the government wants to move to Brussels. Perhaps the reason for postponing the publication is important (some things are better negotiated without public intervention), but for now, the whole case is negative for the pound sterling.

But there is some good news from the UK economy today. The UK PMI Services data was released at the level of 54.0, which was better than 52.8 points a month ago and better than the expected reading of 52.9 points. The Composite PMI was also released better than expected at the level of 54.5 points versus the forecast of 53.4 and 53.2 prior.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. The current GBP position is problematic and strongly shaky. Without the help of good data (as today in the case of PMI), the nervousness around Brexit can take the lead and negatively affect the exchange rate. In the meantime, GBP/USD is closed in the range between 1.33-1.34. Breaking out will shift attention to 1.3470 - 1.3790 (high from May 22) or 1.3250 (low from June 1).

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EUR/USD analysis for June 05, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1688. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential intraday bearish flag in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bearish flag to confirm a further downward movement. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1615.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1740

R2: 1.1780

R3: 1.1820

Support levels:

S1: 1.1664

S2: 1.1627

S3: 1.1587

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of USD/CAD for June 05, 2018

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Recently, the USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2970. According to the H1 time frame, I found a potential end of the (abc) downward correction phase, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a breakout of the intraday bullish flag in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the levels of 1.3045 and 1.3085.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2954

R2: 1.2985

R3: 1.3012

Support levels:

S1: 1.2896

S2: 1.2869

S3: 1.2838

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Analysis of Bitcoin for June 05, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $7,327. A collection of recent funding news from the cryptocurrency ecosystem shows that despite record amounts of money raised by ICOs, the traditional route of raising funds from venture capital firms is still going strong. And cryptocurrency exchanges are involved both as investment targets and investors. The technical picture of Bitcoin looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found a broken support trendline in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $6,990.

Support/Resistance

$7,440 – Intraday resistance

$7,326– Intraday support

$6,990 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Global macro overview for 05/06/2018

Behind traders, the day without interesting macro events, which allowed markets to maintain a positive sentiment, continue to increase stock prices and bond yields, and for the currency market it meant the consolidation of the major pairs and a little more appreciation for risky currencies. The rest phase after the busy and violate end of May lasts in anticipation of fresh information or the creation of an unambiguous trend.

Yesterday, the dollar initially gave away the ground, but the situation turned around after the Wall Street entered the game. As a result, after 24 hours we see more or less the same: EUR/USD hovering around 1.1700, USD/JPY at 110.00 and GBP/USD at 1.3300. The fluctuations back and forth reflect a calm ordering after the events of the last days. European political risks seem to descend into the background, and investors rather than quickly jump to the discussion on the uncertainty in trade relations United States against the rest of the world, find solace in better macro data and the cool green of the stock markets. Nevertheless, this situation might not last for a long time and the sensitivity to shocks is still high, although the discussions on the market more and more often the question arises whether we already begin to decline in volatility during the summer holiday period.

Investors are waiting for anything to happen in major pairs. The quietness of the Italian crisis gives grounds for Euro to rebound, but so far the market participants cannot see a bit of a conviction that it is worth pulling increases higher. It seems that the market has lost confidence in foundations and is looking beyond political factors. If we return to the balance of risks from two weeks ago, we face a pale image of macroeconomic condition that binds the hands of the ECB and delays the process of monetary policy normalization. Though after a series of a disastrous first quarter, now it should be easier for positive surprises, investors (and probably the ECB itself) need to strengthen the recovery of evidence to discount the better the profile of the risks for the Euro. However, this requires time and data. Today's PMI readings and Eurozone retail sales may be the first flash of improvement: the German PMI Services data were in line with expectations of 52.1 points and Composite PMI was even a slightly better at 53.4 vs. 53.1 expected. In the Eurozone, the PMI Services was a tad lower than expected (53.8 vs. 53.9), but Composite PMI was in line with expectations at 54.1 points. The Retail sales data disappointed as they were released at the level of 0.1% m/m while the global investors expected 0.5% m/m increase.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the data were published. The pair remains closed in a horizontal zone between the levels of 1.1676 - 1.1726 in oversold market conditions. The key level to the upside is still seen at the 1.1749 - 1.1756 zone and only a sustained breakout above this level would accelerate the rally towards the next resistance at the level of 1.1829. Otherwise, the market remains locked and might continue to consolidate even longer.

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Review of USD / CHF pair for the week of June 5 on simplified wave analysis

Wave picture of the H4 chart:

On the scale of the major franc pair, the current upward wave started on February 16 has a high potential to move. The formation of the middle part (B) began in the structure of the wave.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The bearish wave of May 10th has a fleeting character of motion in a more massive construction taking the place of correction. The wave is not yet completed. The preliminary level of its completion is within the limits of settlement in the support.

The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

Within the framework of the main trend since May 29, the price forms an incorrect kind of corrective pullback upwards. The growth potential is limited by the zone of resistance.

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Recommended trading strategy:

For trading on large sections of the schedule, you need to wait for the completion of the bearish correction. For smaller scales, short-term sales are possible.

Resistance zones:

- 0.9920 / 0.9970

Support zones:

- 0.9760 / 0.9710

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

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Trading plan for GBP / USD pair as of 05/06/2018

The pound has good chances to strengthen its positions today. In particular, the index of business activity in the service sector can grow from 52.8 to 53.0. In turn, the U.S. statistics also do not favor the growth of the dollar, s the number of open vacancies should decrease from 6.6 million to 6.4 million. Thus, there is virtually no doubt that the pound will be able to grow well naturally if forecasts on statistical data are justified.

The GBP/USD currency pair has once again returned to the level of 1.3300, forming near stagnation in the form of consolidation from candles like "Doji". It is likely that the bulls will once again try to work out the level by returning the quotation to the values of 1.3350 / 1.3390.

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Bitcoin analysis for 05/06/2018

The Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) issued orders to improve the business of the twelve national cryptographic exchanges. One of the main concerns of FSA is the compliance of exchanges with Anti-Money-Laundering (AML) requirements. Inspections carried out by the agency revealed that several cryptographic exchanges do not apply sufficient Know-Your-Customer (KYC) controls to confirm the identity of their users. The supervisory authority also expressed concerns about cases in which customer assets are not properly separated from the exchange assets.

New regulator orders have been issued for a total of twelve crypto stock exchanges, two of which are officially licensed stock exchanges, and ten of them are "quasi-operators", which means that their application for an FSA license still awaits consideration. The FSA is expected to publish a report summarizing the results of its audits later this month, as well as providing further guidance on the required customer protection measures.

Two high-profile scandals involving Japanese cryptographic exchanges - the unprecedented January Coincheck hack at $532 million, and the infamous fall of Mt. Gox - led to the intensification of intervention by the national financial supervisory authority.

From April 2017, the Japanese Payment Services Act requires all cryptographic exchanges to be registered under the FSA license - the first licenses were approved in September. This year, the regulator tightened the conditions even more, focusing on compliance with AML and KYC.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has so far failed to break out above the important technical resistance at the level of $7,740 and now it testing the golden trend line from below. Any break out below the technical support at the level of $7,232 will open the road to the key technical support at the $6,984 swing low.

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Trading plan for EUR / USD pair as of 05/06/2018

The growth rate of retail sales in Europe could accelerate from 0.8% to 1.7%, which is simply superb, given the preliminary data on inflation, which showed its acceleration from 1.2% to 1.9%. Thus, the single European currency has well-founded reasons for growth. Moreover, the number of open vacancies in the U.S. should decrease from 6.6 million to 6.4 million. Thus, absolutely all the data coming out today indicate exactly the weakening of the dollar.

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to fluctuate within the range of 1.1650 / 1.1750, gradually increasing bullish interest. Probably, we can assume the preservation of the current mood with the subsequent movement to the upper boundary, the main move that should be only considered after fixing the price above 1.1750.

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Trading plan for 05/06/2018

Behind us is quite a quiet night, where USD tried to pick up the lost ground from yesterday. In general, changes in the currency market are small with the best attitude towards the USD, which, however, looks like nothing more than attempts to reverse Monday's drops. Apart from AUD/USD, changes in crosses are close to 0.15%. EUR/USD came back just under 1.17, and USD/JPY is attacking the level of 110.00, for now without success.

The PMI index for the Chinese services sector in May remained at 52.9 pts, as expected. With PMI Composite at 52.3, this indicates a better attitude of the service sector over factory production.On the stock market, we are continuing a positive climate from other markets. After the SP500 closed yesterday's session by an increase of 0.45%, today Japanese Nikkei225 grows 0.2% and Chinese Shanghai Composite gains 0.5%. The increases are smaller than yesterday, which suggests striving for stabilization.Oil prices are bouncing after almost a 2% drop yesterday, but rising US production and expectations for higher OPEC deliveries are limiting the rebound.

On Tuesday 5th of June, the event calendar is quite busy in important data releases. PMI Services and Composite PMI data from across the Eurozone will be in the eye of any trader today, together with Retail Sales data with the EU. Later on, the US will post ISM Non-Manufacturing data, JOLTs Job Openings data and Final Services PMI and COmposite PMI. There are some speeches scheduled from ECB President Mario Draghi and BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe.

AUD/USD analysis for 05/06/2018:

The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept the cash rate at 1.5% in line with expectations. There were not many changes in the official statement as well. The bank is satisfied with the continued improvement of the labor market situation with expectations of acceleration in wage growth. RBA further expects that low interest rates support the economy, although the further process of limiting unemployment and returning inflation to the target will be slow. There were no explicit references to the level of the exchange rate in the text of the statement.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair made a modest decrease of 10 pips to 0.7625 after the interest rate decision was released, which, however, is consistent with the general appreciation of USD. The market has hit the 61% Fibo at the level of 0.7659 and currently is testing the higher boundary of the parallel channel around the level of 0.7640. The momentum remains strong, but the market conditions are now close to being overbought, so a corrective pull-back will be needed. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 0.7603.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for June 5, 2018

On Tuesday, these are the following strong calendar news:

- 8.30 London time. GBP, the index of business activity in the services sector (May). The expected value is 52.9 compared to the previous value of 52.8;

- 14.00 London time. USD, the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM (May). The expected value is 57.9 compared to the previous value of 56.8;

- 14.00 London time. the number of open vacancies in the labor market JOLTS (Apr)). The expected value is 6.490M compared to the previous value of 6.550M.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Monday, the price moved up but could not break through the retracement level of 14.6% at 1.3373 (yellow dotted line) and after that, it went down. On Tuesday, the price will most likely break through this level and go up. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the GBP / USD pair will move upward towards the first goal of 1.33 with the recession rate of 14.6%.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair for June 5, 2018

On Tuesday, these are the following strong calendar news:

- 14.00 London time. SD, the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM (May). The expected value is 57.9 compared to the previous value of 56.8;

- 14.00 London time. USD, the number of open vacancies in the labor market JOLTS (Apr). The expected value is 6.490M compared to the previous value of 6.550M.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Monday, the price continued to move in the side channel. Truly, there was an unsuccessful attempt to move upward to achieve a recoil rate of 23.6% at 1.1758 (blue dotted line). On Tuesday, the upward movement will most likely continue to this recession level. A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion.

On Tuesday, the market will move up towards the first goal at 1.1758 with a recoil level of 23.6% (blue dotted line).

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Problems may arise in the Euro

The US dollar managed to regain some of its positions against risky assets after a new wave of purchases formed on Friday afternoon. The complications of trade relations with the European Union, after the introduction of trade duties on steel and aluminum by the US, made investors take a wait-and-see attitude.

They failed to exert pressure on the US dollar and weak data that came out yesterday afternoon.

According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, orders for manufactured goods in the US in April 2018 fell sharply by 0.8%, to $ 494.4 billion. Economists predicted that orders in April will fall only by 0.5%.

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More importantly, the orders for durable goods and orders for transport equipment made the leaders in falling orders, which is not a very good sign for the economy., The production orders in April this year were able to increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month, excluding the transportation equipment.

The business condition index in New York declined in May. As indicated in the report of the Institute of Supply Management ISM in New York, the current business condition index in May fell to 56.4 points from 64.3 points in April. However, it is worth recalling that, despite the decline, values above 50 points indicate an increase in activity.

The employment index, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, fell to 50.2 in May from 58.3 in April, and the current income index fell to 43.8. The income expectations index fell to 71.7.

Data from Conference Board also failed to please traders, as the May index fell sharply after rising for five consecutive months.

According to the report, the index was 107.69 points against the April value of 108 points. In comparison with the same period of the previous year, the index grew by 3.9%.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the prospects of a further upward trend have become slightly more complicated. Now, buyers need to take efforts again to return to the important level of resistance 1.1715-20, which they were unable to keep yesterday afternoon. Only under such a scenario, the upward trend in risky assets will resume, which will lead to the next weekly highs of 1.1750 and 1.1790. In the event of a breakthrough of support at 1.1650, the pressure on risky assets will grow even more and the trading instrument will collapse to the lows of 1.1615 and 1.1570.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EUR/USD for June 5, 2018

Although EUR/USD broke above 1.1720-1.1730 yesterday, it did not manage to hold above it and fell back below 1.17. This is not necessarily a bad thing because price broke out of the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) after almost 2 months below it and back tested support at 1.1680-1.1690.

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As can be seen above on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has finally broken above the cloud. My minimum bounce target is at 1.1875 where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Support is found at 1.1665 and next at 1.1630. I'm bullish on EURUSD as I believe that we should at least see a strong bounce from the current levels.

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Technical analysis on Gold for June 5, 2018

Gold price made a new short-term lower low yesterday still above $1,290 but did not break above resistance. Price remains under pressure and as long as price is below $1,300-$1,310 there will be a danger of seeing $1,280 or lower again.

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Yellow line - medium-term resistance

Green lines - targets

Red lines - extension targets

Purple line- short-term resistance

Gold price did not break out above $1,305 yesterday as expected. This does not cancel my bullish view and expectations for a move towards $1,330. However I do not like the delay. Gold price should soon break above $1,294 (purple lines short-term resistance) and eventually above $1,297-98 medium-term resistance (yellow line). Above $1,310 we have confirmation of our bullish scenario. Until then we are vulnerable to selling pressures.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 5, 2018

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As long as resistance at 1.6764 is able to cap the upside, as long will the downtrend from 1.7294 stay alive. That said, we see a very limited potential towards the downside and think the possibilities now is towards the upside and no longer towards the downside. The loss of downside momentum, is a warning that a low could be found anytime now.

A break above resistance at 1.6764 is needed to confirm that a low has been seen in wave ii and that wave iii to above 1.7300 is developing.

R.:1.6827

R2: 1.6764

R1: 1.6708

Pivot: 1.6636

S1: 1.6605

S2: 1.6584

S3: 1.6544

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.6600 or upon a break above resistance at 1.6764. We will place our stop at 1.6510.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 5, 2018

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EUR/JPY is now testing resistance in the 128.54 - 128.88 area. We expect this area will cap the upside for wave i and set the stage for a corrective decline into the 126.16 - 126.65 area in wave ii.

Short-term a break below minor support at 127.95, will confirm that wave i has completed and wave ii is developing. The most common structure for a corrective second wave is the deep zig-zag, but except from the triangle all the other corrective structures can be seen too, so only time will tell us, what to expect.

R3: 129.06

R2: 128.88

R1: 128.70

Pivot: 128.17

S1: 127.95

S2: 127.47

S3: 127.10

Trading recommendation:

We took profit at 128.45 and booked a nice profit for 161 pips. We will sell a break below 128.29 and place our stop at 129.25 if done.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, June 05, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Retail Sales m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Spanish Services PMI, and French Gov Budget Balance. The US will release economic reports too such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Final Services PMI. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1758.

Strong Resistance:1.1751.

Original Resistance: 1.1740.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1729.

Target Inner Area: 1.1701.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1673.

Original Support: 1.1662.

Strong Support: 1.1651.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1644.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar did not even give up

EUR / USD

During the course yesterday, the euro rose by 85 points and the day was closed by growth of 37 points. In the Asian session today, the price is at the close of Friday. Short-term growth was caused by the weakening of political tensions in Italy due to the formation of the coalition government, but the market probability of the country's exit from the EU remains noticeable by 5-10%. The formation of the government as a whole is not a positive action, but rather a departure from the aggravation at the present time.

The number of unemployed in Spain for May fell by 83.7 thousand against the best expectations of -105.7 thousand. while the consumer confidence index in Spain fell from 99.9 to 97.7. The investor confidence index in the euro area from Sentix for June fell from 19.2 to 9.3, with a decrease to 18.6. The eurozone producer price index for April showed zero growth against expectations of 0.2%.

In the United States, the volume of factory orders for April fell by 0.8% against the forecast of -0.4%. But the stock index of the broad S & P500 market grew by 0.45%, which indicates investors' optimism.

Today, the euro zone will receive a final estimate of the business activity index in the services sector (Services PMI) for May with an unchanged forecast at 53.9. Optimism may be on the part of retail sales, for which the April growth is projected at 0.5% versus 0.1% in March. The strong US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in May is expected at 57.9 against 56.8 in April.

Also at 2:00 PM London time, a discussion meeting will begin between the two ECB presidents, the current Mario Draghi and his predecessor Jean-Claude Trichet. The event is dedicated to the 20th anniversary of the ECB, therefore it will be more a cognitive meeting and a generalized view of the two concepts.

We are waiting for the euro to return to 1.1620 and further to 1.1510.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets are under the power of trade wars

On Monday, the foreign exchange market did not show any noticeable activity. The US dollar was down on the wave of fears that trade wars would put pressure on the US economy, and because of this, the world economy could also be under pressure.

Support against the dollar, although insignificant, received European currencies against the backdrop of stabilizing political situations in Italy and Spain after the appointment of local governments. Noticeable growth was restrained on the eve of the fact of the EU's trade war with the US, so the overall dynamics were not so pronounced.

On Monday, published production inflation data (PPI) in the euro area showed a decline in annualized growth in April to 2.0% versus expectations of an increase to 2.4% and March's value a year earlier at 2.1%. The monthly value of the indicator in April was at zero, while the increase by 0.3% was also expected against the March growth of 0.1%.

The euro, in fact, did not react to these figures of the indicator due to the fact that the trade war between the states and the European Union is the main obstacle.

The ruble is waiting for the decision of OPEC +, which can set the direction of crude oil prices, and their dynamics will help him decide where they should go. As for the behavior of the government bonds of the Ministry of Finance, they continue to consolidate in their yields in rather narrow ranges again against the backdrop of a lack of a stable demand for public debt assets. Thus, the profitability of the benchmark of 10-year OFZs continues to move in the range of 7.240% -7.420%.

However, let's return to the Forex market. Today, the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia took place, the result of which was the preservation of the key interest rate at the level of 1.50%. The bank made it clear that it would not rush to raise interest rates. The day before, the Australian dollar gained appreciable support amid news that the talks between the US and China that took place this weekend did not give advantage to any of the parties, which means that there is a possibility of reaching a compromise that might positively affect the course of the "Aussie", since the economy of the Australia is very tightly bound in trade relations with the Chinese and any reduction of tension around China in this situation favorably affects the rate of the Australian currency.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair is consolidating in the range of 1.1630-1.1725 on the wave of uncertainty of how the trade wars on the euro-zone economy will recur. It is likely that today, the pair will remain in this range. It can fall to its lower boundary on the wave of positive economic statistics from the US.

The AUDUSD pair is trading lower with the RBA meeting. If the price does not pass the 0.7655 mark, it may turn down to 0.7515, if the statistics from the US turn out to be strong.

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Technical analysis: intraday levels for USD/JPY for June 05, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction and Household Spending y/y. At the same time, the US will also publish some economic data such as the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI. So there is a probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 110.47.

Resistance. 2: 110.25.

Resistance. 1: 110.04.

Support. 1: 109.77.

Support. 2: 109.56.

Support. 3: 109.34.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 05, 2018

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If we look at the 4 hour chart, the USD/CHF pair is in a bearish condition. Under this condition the price is moving in a down slope channel. Unless this pair breaks out and closes above the 0.9912 level, it will try to test the next previous support at 0.9829 level as the target.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on June 5 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Only the formation of a false breakdown at the support level of 1.3298 and good PMI data in the service sector of the UK will allow us to return to the resistance level of 1.3334, which was missed yesterday afternoon. Above this level, the demand for the pound will increase, which will lead to the renewal of the larger resistances areas of 1.3364 and 1.3394, where it is recommended to lock in profits. In case of a breakout of 1.3298, buying the GBP / USD pair is best around the areas of 1.3255 and 1.3231.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The bears will expect a consolidation below the level of 1.3298, which will serve as the first signal for opening short positions with an exit at 1.3255. Weaker data on the service sector may cause a major drop in the GBP / USD pair with a test of lows around 1.3231 and 1.3202, where it is recommended to lock in profits. To sell the pound on growth is possible from the area of 1.3364, and better slightly higher, from the resistance level of 1.3394.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The British pound is not pleased

GBP / USD

In the first half of Monday, the British pound rose by 50 points due to business activity growth in the construction sector, as the May estimate did not changed since April (52.5) but did not fall to the projected 52.0. At the same time, Silvana Tenreyro, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, announced several possible rate increases over the next three years. But, firstly, it only confirmed the already known line of the Central Bank and secondly, Tenreyro has always been distinguished by increased (and subsequently unjustified) optimism in this regard. As a result, the pound closed the day with a decrease to 35 points under the pressure of the dollar.

Today, the UK business activity index for May is expected to rise to 52.9 from 52.8. The American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected with even greater growth from 56.8 to 57.9, balance in favor of the dollar. We are waiting for the British pound in the range of 1.3225 / 45.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of gold for June 05, 2018

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As seen on the 4 hour chart, gold is moving in a bearish bias. The precious metal is moving in a down slope channel. In a few days ahead, as long as gold does not break out and close above the 1,304.93 level, it will likely test the next support level at 1,281.57.

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Trading plan for the European session on June 5 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EURUSD, you need:

Buying the euro in the first half of the day is best on the support levels of 1.1680 and 1.1653 after a false breakdown. Otherwise, opening long positions is best on a rebound from 1.1620. The main goal of the euro buyers will be a return to the resistance levels of 1.1710 with the update of yesterday's high at 1.1745, where it is recommend to lock in profits.

To open short positions for EURUSD, you need:

The unsuccessful consolidation above the level of 1.1710 with a return to it will be the first signal for the opening of short positions in the euro with the main goal of reducing to the support level of 1.1680 and updating to the area of 1.1653, where the pressure on the pair will increase even more. This will lead to the exit to the area of a large support level of 1.1620, where it is recommended to lock in profits. In the case of growth above the level of 1.1710 in the morning, selling is best from levels of 1.1745 and 1.1788.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com