Bitcoin analysis for November 02, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $7.345. China's major exchanges have found a legitimate means through which to continue operations despite the Chinese government crackdown on cryptocurrency exchanges. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found strong upward momentum in the background. I also found successful testing of the upward trendline, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $7.349 and $7.945.

Support/Resistance

$6.695 – support cluster

$7.345 – intraday resistance

$7.945 – short-term upward target

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for November 2, 2017

USD/CHF has been non-volatile and impulsively bullish recently after breaking above the 0.9850 resistance area. Recently CHF has been quite negative with the economic reports which helped USD to gain momentum very well. Today CHF SECO Consumer Climate report was published with less deficit at -2 from the previous negative figure of -3 which was expected to be at 0 and Retail Sales report was published with negative value at -0.4% from the previous value of -1.0% which was expected to be positive at 0.3%. On the USD side, today USD Federal Funds Rate report was unchanged at 1.25% as expected as the Rate Hike is about to happen in December. Along with the Rate hike today USD Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 235k from the previous 233k, Prelim Non-Farm Productivity report is expected to publish with an increase to 2.5% from the previous value of 1.5%, Prelim Unit Labor cost is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2%, Natural Gas Storage is expected to decrease to 63B from the previous figure of 64B and FOMC Member Powell and Dudley is going to speak about the key interest rates and future monetary policy which is expected to be neutral in nature. As of the current situation, USD has been relatively weak after the unchanged Federal Funds rate report today and it is currently expected that CHF might gain some momentum and push the price a bit downside for some retracement before the price bounces up.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently showing some bearish intervention after the non-volatile bullish trend in place. As of the current scenario, the price has formed a Bearish Continuing Divergence which is expected to push the price lower towards 0.9850-0.9760 support area before proceeding further with the bullish move with the target towards 1.01 resistance area. As the price remains above 0.9760 the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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USD/JPY analysis for November 02, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 114.07. According to the 15M time - frame, I found broken pivot level at the price of 114.02, which is a sign that buyers are in control today. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 114.43 (pivot resistance 1) and at thep rice of 114.70 (pivot resistnace 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 114.43

R2: 114.70

R3: 115.10

Support levels:

S1: 113.75

S2: 113.35

S3: 113.10

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 02/11/2017

According to IHS Markit, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI advanced to 58.5 points in October, up from 58.1 points in September and slightly below the earlier flash estimate of 58.6 points. The upturn was again led by a strong-performing core of Germany, the Netherlands, and Austria. PMI readings were unchanged in Germany and Austria, while the Netherlands PMI rose to its highest level since February 2011. The expansions in Italy (80- month record) and Spain (29-month high) both accelerated, while the France PMI held steady at September's 77-month high. Growth was also recorded in Ireland and Greece, meaning all of the nations covered registered expansions for the fifth straight month. However, Ireland and Greece both saw their respective rates of increase slow since the prior survey month. The growth of both output and new orders remained elevated, while the pace of job creation accelerated to a survey-record high.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The data did not influence the price movement much as most of it was priced in already. The market remains in a tight consolidation between 38% Fibo at the level of 1.1674 and technical support at the level of 1.1610. The momentum indicator is still trading below its fifty level, so the bias remains bearish.

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Global macro overview for 02/11/2017

The FOMC meeting statement did not bring any surprises. There is a similar optimism regarding economic activity in September. The hurricane-induced decline in employment is combined with an under-declining unemployment rate. At the same time, the Fed highlights the weakness of inflation, although it still assumes it is reaching the 2.0% target in the medium term. In general, the message leaves the door open to a December hike.The US Dollar is on the defensive move due to doubts about the reform of the tax system. It seemed that the specific progress in this field in the previous weeks supported the US Dollar. Now there is a typical chaos of the Trump administration, a lack of details and a collision course with some of the politicians of his own group. The market is also dominated by the belief that J. Powell will be the new Fed head (such a choice is already in prices). It is important to keep in mind that the FOMC's decision-making structure will change slightly towards "hawkish" bias if the Taylor or Warsh will join to the FOMC Board of Governors - such signals could support the US Dollar across the board.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has bounced from the technical support at the level of 94.47 but did not rally yet towards the new high. Nevertheless, the progression of higher highs and higher lows is still continuing and as long as the golden trend line is not violated, the bias remains bullish.

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Analysis of Gold for November 02, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,276.20. According to the 15M time - frame, I found broken upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,268.00 (pivot support 1) and at the price of $1,261.80 (pivot support 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,281.00

R2: $1,287.40

R3: $1.293.90

Support levels:

S1: $1,268.00

S2: $1,261.80

S3: $1,255.15

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for November 2, 2017

EUR/JPY is currently residing inside the range of 131.40 to 134.40 area which is showing some bullish move after the recent bounce off the horizontal support level. EUR has been quite mixed with the economic reports recently but managed to gain over JPY. Today JPY Monetary Base report was published with a worse decreased value of 14.5% from the previous value of 15.6% which was expected to increase to 15.7% and Consumer Confidence report showed an increase to 44.5 from the previous figure of 43.9 which was expected to be at 43.6. On the other hand, today EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI report was published with an increase to 55.8 from the previous figure of 54.3 which was expected to be at 54.8, Italian Manufacturing PMI report was published with an increase to 57.8 from the previous figure of 56.3 which was expected to increase to 56.6, French Final Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decreased figure of 56.1 which was expected to be unchanged at 56.7, German Final Manufacturing PMI report was published with slight increase to 60.6 which was expected to be unchanged at 60.5, German Unemployment Change was published with less deficit at -11k from the previous figure of -22k which was expected to be at -10k and Final Manufacturing PMI report was published with slight decrease to 58.5 which was expected to be unchanged at 58.6. As of the current scenario, EUR and JPY had mixed economic reports whereas EUR was the dominant over JPY today which is expected to continue further as despite having mixed economic report of JPY it failed to gain over EUR which indicates that EUR is going to dominate further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has been riding the bullish trend since it bounced off 122 support area and currently residing inside the corrective structure and showing some bullish momentum as well. The price is currently expected to push towards 134.40 in the coming days as the price remains above 131.40 support area.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • Yesterday, the USD/CHF breached the resistance at the spot of 0.9998 which acts as support now. However, the pair has already formed major support at 0.9942. The strong support is seen at the level of 0.9898 because it represents the weekly pivot. In the H1 time frame, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.9942. Buy above the minor support of 0.9942 with targets at the levels of 1.0050 and 1.0100. Also, it should be noted that if the trend is buoyant, then the strength in this currency pair will be defined as follows: USD is in an uptrend and CHF is in a downtrend. On the other hand, if the pair closes below the minor support (0.9942), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9898. Briefly, the minor support is seen at the level of 0.9942. It will be profitable to buy above the spot of 0.9940 with the targets of 0.9998, 1.0050 and 1.0100. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed at the 0.9900 level on the H1 chart. We are still looking for a strong bullish market in coming two days.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 02, 2017

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Overview:

  • The kiwi is still trading around the area of 0.6818 and 0.6960. Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair rebounded from the level of 0.6818 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.6818 which represents the daily support 1t on the H4 chart. The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.6968. The price was in a bullish channel since this morning. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market.
  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.6818. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.6818, the market is still in an uptrend. In addition, the trend is still strong above the moving average (MA100). The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements last two days. The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels.
  • The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.6818 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6968. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.6968, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7207 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.7207 today.However, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below support 2 (0.6700).
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Trading plan for 02/11/2017

The US Dollar is weaker overnight as there were rumors that Trump has decided that J. Powell will succeed J. Yellen as head of the Fed. EUR/USD reached a peak near 1.1670. Before the Bank of England decision, GBP?USD is approaching 1.33. USD/JPY is back at 114.00. AUD / USD is at 0.7720 (+0.5%) after better than expected real estate data. NZD/USD is approaching 0.6950 and continues the overnight rally after good labor market data.

On Thursday 2nd of November, the event calendar is busy with important news releases. The main event of the day is Bank of England interest rate decision, but before that, the set of PMI Manufacturing data from across the Eurozone will be released as well. Later during the day, the US will post Unemployment Claims and Continuing Claims data. There are some speeches scheduled as well: first will speak BOE Governor Mark Carney and then FOMC Member Jerome Powell and William Dudley.

GBP/USD analysis for 02/11/2017:

The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, Inflation Report, Asset Purchase Facility and Monetary Policy Summary is scheduled at 12:00 am GMT. The market participants expect an interest rate hike from 0.25% to 0.50% without a change in asset purchases. This sharp swing in expectations is almost entirely the result of the step up in hawkish rhetoric proffered by the MPC rather than a response to UK economic data. Indeed, while UK CPI inflation has edged up to 3%, activity series is showing signs of weakening. The implication is that for many forecasters, the expectations of a rate rise on today's meeting is not necessarily consistent with what they think the BoE should do, but rather what the MPC now looks likely to do. Nevertheless, due to weakness in recent UK economic data, the Bank might not be able to follow on with another hike for some time. The dovish hike scenario suggests that upside potential for the British Pound on a policy move in November is likely to be limited.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the news is released. The price has managed to break out above the dashed black trading channel, but it was capped at the nearest resistance at the level of 1.3292. In a case of a rate hike, the market could go higher to hit the next technical resistance at the level of 1.3342. It is very important how the price will behave on this level because breakout higher opens the road towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.3462. If the BoE will not deliver, then the impulsive drop towards the level of 1.3087 is the most likely scenario.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil capped at $55.26

The price of Crude Oil was capped at the technical resistance at the level of $55.26 and now is slipping towards the technical support at the level of $53.77. AN interesting candlestick pattern can be observed in the daily time frame as well. The market conditions are overbought and now the momentum indicator is approaching its fifty level.

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Market Snapshot: Gold capped at trend line

The price of Gold was capped at the golden trend line resistance around the level of $1,281. The market reversed slightly towards the old support at the level of $1,276 and now is trying to bounce again. Nevertheless, as long as the price stays below the golden trend line and below the 200 periods moving average, the outlook remains bearish.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 2, 2017

EUR/USD: This currency pair is still consolidating in the context of a downtrend. When volatility returns to the market, it would most probably favor bears, for price is expected to reach the support lines at 1.1600 and 1.1550, which would be tested between today and tomorrow.

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USD/CHF: This pair, with a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in its 4-hour chart, has gone above the support level at 1.0000, going towards the resistance level at 1.0050. Price would also try to reach another resistance level at 1.0100. Meanwhile, the support level at 1.0000 has become a big psychological barrier to bears.

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GBP/USD: The Cable tested the distribution territory at 1.3300 and then pulled backwards. The bullish bias on the market is still a valid thing, for the EMA 11 remains above the EMA 56, while the RSI with period 14 is above the 50 level. Unless price crosses the accumulation territory at 1.3150 to the downside (which could cause a threat to the extant bullish bias), it is expected to go upwards from here, by at least, 150 pips. Some important fundamental figures are expected today and they would have impact on the market.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair remains in a short-term bullish mode. Price is currently above the demand level at 114.00, targeting the supply level at 114.50 (first target), and then going towards another supply level at 115.00 (second target). Any major pullback is not currently anticipated.

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EUR/JPY: What is happening right now on the cross pair is what can best be called protracted rally in the context of a downtrend. The rally has skewed the recent bearish signal, i.e. the RSI period 14 is giving a bullish signal while the EMAs 11 and 56 do not support that. It is better to stay away until a directional movement starts.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for November 2, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick advance towards the next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (the key zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (key zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further decline should be expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

On the other hand, if the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by bulls, a bullish pullback and a short-term BUY entry can be expected during this week's consolidations.

The next demand level to meet the pair is located around 0.6710 that maybe visited if enough bearish pressure is applied below 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 2, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair had been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern will extend towards 1.1350 if enough bearish pressure is applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trade Recommendations

Price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 for evident bullish recovery and a possible short-term BUY entry.

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Bitcoin analysis for 02/11/2017

According to the Freelancer periodical report, the number of cryptocurrency related jobs has increased by as much as 82% in the third quarter of this year. These deals mainly concern works related to Bitcoin, blockchain and related markets. Freelancer notes that a significant portion of the growth comes from companies that are looking for an employee to design new coin in ICO projects. One of the main characteristics sought by companies is the ability to manage ICOs that are perceived as highly profitable. In addition, employers are also looking for employees to write these projects. At the same time, the demand for cryptographic specialists also increased. Cryptography is the basis on which blockchain technology is based and is highly demanded during the design process of new, secure coin. Freelancer noted not only higher demand for employees in the digital currency area, but also definitely better working conditions than the competition. In a report released in September, it was found that companies associated with cryptocurrencies pay on average between 10% and 20% more than traditional companies, and they offer much more flexible working conditions.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The alternative corrective cycle count has been abandoned after it turned out the low for the wave 4 was established at the level of $5,343. Currently, the next best count is an impulsive wave 5 progressions, which might easily extend towards $7,000 level. Please notice the overbought market conditions at H4 time frame and a bearish divergence on a higher time frame.analytics59fad41e8f764.jpg

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for November 2, 2017

AUD/USD is currently bullish after breaking below the 0.7750 support area recently with a daily close. Despite having not so good economic reports recently AUD has been quite positive with the gains against USD. Today AUD Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 1.75B from the previous figure of 0.87B which was expected to increase to 1.42B and Building Approvals report also showed an increase to 1.5% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be negative at -0.9%. The positive economic reports helped AUD to gain impulsively over USD today with unchanged Federal Funds Rate ahead of the NFP report this week. On the USD side, today Federal Funds Rate report was published with an unchanged value of 1.25% which is expected to show an increase on December and FOMC meeting was quite neutral for this month which leads to further weakness of the currency. Moreover, today USD Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to show an increase to 235k from the previous 233k, Prelim Non-Farm Productivity report is expected to publish with an increase to 2.5% from the previous value of 1.5%, Prelim Unit Labor cost is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2%, Natural Gas Storage is expected to decrease to 63B from the previous figure of 64B and FOMC Member Powell and Dudley is going to speak about the key interest rates and future monetary policy which is expected to be neutral in nature. To sum up, the overall trend is still quite bearish and USD is expected to gain momentum against AUD by the end of this week which will lead to further bearish pressure in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently showing some bullish move towards the resistance area of 0.7750-0.7850. As the price progresses towards the resistance area to retest and reject off the level, it will also have a confluence of the dynamic level of 20 EMA to push the price lower in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.7850 resistance level with a daily close we will be looking forward to selling with the target towards 0.7500.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for November 2, 2017

The Dollar index is testing the channel support. Price reached the lower channel boundary. The trend remains bullish as the price is still above the Kumo. However, we have the first warning as the price has moved below the kijun-sen.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

The Dollar index is testing short-term channel support at 94.45. Breaking below this level will push price towards the Kumo support at 94.05. Breaking below the Kumo support will change short-term trend to bearish.

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On a weekly basis, nothing has changed. Price remains below the weekly kijun-sen and the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Price could push towards 95.50 where the 38% Fibonacci retracement is found. Rejection at current levels could bring the index towards the tenkan-sen at 93. Breaking below 93 will confirm that the next downward move has started.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 2, 2017

The Gold price has entered the Kumo (cloud) and a short-term trend has changed to neutral, as the price is making very short-term higher highs and whenever it pulls back towards $1,270 buyers step in and push it back towards short-term resistance of $1,283.

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Blue line - resistance (broken)

Red line - support

The Gold price has entered the Ichimoku cloud. The trend is now neutral. Support is at $1,267 and resistance remains at $1,283. Many stops are placed above $1,283 so a break above it will most probably push price towards $1,295-$1,300. This will be the first step towards the start of a new upward leg towards $1,400.

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Blue line - support

Magenta line -resistance

Gold weekly chart remains above the weekly Kumo. The trend is bullish. Gold could pull back towards $1,245-50 and the weekly Kumo but if price breaks above $1,307 we should expect a retest at the magenta trend line resistance.

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Last minute burning forecast 02.11.2017

Last minute burning forecast 02.11.2017

EURUSD: The decline is at a halt. Potential buying.

On Wednesday, there were many important news on the US - the Fed decision (monetary policy unchanged), private employment report from ADP (+235K new jobs), ISM industrial production index +5.8.7 - slightly lower than forecast, but strong data.

In general, the data on the US is strong - but in fact we see that the EURUSD exchange rate has not only not declined, but even failed to test the last low at 1.1575.

Conclusion: The decline is over, with no small probability, there is potential in buying.

We buy from 1.1660 - with the target of 1.1760. A stop-loss at 1.1615.

Alternative plan: Selling for a breakdown below 1.1574.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 02, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 113.55. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

Therefore, as long as 113.55 holds on the downside, look for a further upside to 114.30 and even to 114.75 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 113.55 with a target at 113.30.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 113.55, Take Profit: 114.30

Resistance levels: 114.30, 114.75 and 114.90 Support Levels: 113.30, 112.95, 112.70

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 02, 2017

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Our first target which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis has been hit. USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish bias. The pair retreated from 1.0035 (the high of November 1) and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the bearish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

The U.S. Federal Reserve pointed out that the labor market has continued to strengthen and economic activity has been rising at a solid rate despite hurricane-related disruptions, hinting another rate rise would come before the year-end.

Meanwhile, Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) reported that private employers added 235,000 jobs in October, the most in seven months, compared with +110,000 jobs in September. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity slipped to 58.7 in October from 60.8 in September.

To conclude, below 1.0035, expect a new decline with targets at 0.9965 and 0.9935 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 1.0035, Take Profit: 0.9965

Resistance levels: 1.0070, 1.0095, and 1.0135

Support levels: 0.9965, 0.9935, and 0.9900

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 2, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for more downside pressure towards 1.6545 to complete wave ii. Short-term, a minor rally towards 1.6911 could be seen before the expected dip to 1.6545 from where wave iii higher to 1.7977 is expected to take over.

Only a direct break above 1.6987 and more important a break above resistance at 1.7059 will confirm wave iii already is developing.

R3: 1.6954

R2: 1.6911

R1: 1.6857

Pivot: 1.6785

S1: 1.6712

S2: 1.6660

S3: 1.6545

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6890 with our stop placed at 1.6794. We will take half profit at 1.6910 and half profit again at 1.6955

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 2, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY is testing the lower part of the expected target-area for wave ii between 132.96 - 133.33 from where the next impulsive decline is expected towards 128.36 in wave iii. A break below support at 131.60 will confirm that wave (D) has completed and wave (E) is developing towards 123.43.

To keep wave (D) alive a break above 134.49 will be needed, which will call for a spike closer to 137.37 before turning lower in wave (E).

R3: 134.49

R2: 133.98

R1: 133.33

Pivot: 132.40

S1: 131.86

S2: 131.42

S3: 131.09

Trading recommendation:

We will sell EUR at 133.20 with stop placed at 134.55 or upon a break below support at 132.29.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 02, 2017

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Our both targets which we predicted in Yesterday's analysis has been hit. GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 150.80. The pair is striking against the upper Bollinger band while being supported by both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is well placed above the neutrality level of 50, showing a lack of downward momentum for the pair. As intraday bullishness persists, the pair is expected to proceed toward the first upside target at 151.85. Above that, the level of 152.30 would come into sight.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 150.80 with the target at 150.40.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 150.80, Take Profit: 151.85

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 151.85, 152.30 and 152.90

Support levels: 150.40, 150.00, and 149.55

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 02, 2017

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Our first upside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is still expected to trade with Bullish bias above 0.6680. Although the pair retreated from 0.6930 (the high of November 1), a support base at 0.6880 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum.

Therefore, as long as 0.6880 is not broken, we are cautious with up targets at 0.6950 and 0.6970 in extension.

The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6950, 0.6970, and 0.6995

Support levels: 0.6850, 0.6830, and 0.6795

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 02, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as French 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Final Manufacturing PMI, German Unemployment Change, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1684.

Strong Resistance:1.1677.

Original Resistance: 1.1666.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1655.

Target Inner Area: 1.1627.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1599.

Original Support: 1.1588.

Strong Support: 1.1577.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1570.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 02, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Consumer Confidence and Monetary Base y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.46.

Resistance. 2: 114.24.

Resistance. 1: 114.01.

Support. 1: 113.75.

Support. 2: 113.53.

Support. 3: 113.30.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/USD reversing nicely, remain bearish

The price has started to reverse nicely from our selling area. We remain bearish below major resistance at 1.1666 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, breakout area, bearish divergence) for a further push back down to 1.1572 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (21,3,1) is dropping nicely with good downside potential. Bearish divergence vs price signals that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 1.1666. Stop loss is at 1.1738. Take profit is at 1.1572.

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GBP/USD testing major resistance, prepare to sell

The price has started to react strongly off major resistance at 1.3319 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect to see a strong drop below this level to push the price down to at least 1.3161 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (89,3,1) is seeing strong resistance below 99% and is turning down nicely signaling that a reversal is in action.

Sell below 1.3319. Stop loss is at 1.3427. Take profit is at 1.3161.

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Gold is waiting for clues from the dollar

Gold was able to pare its losses and is trying to cling to an important level of $1,280 an ounce on the background of the reluctance of dollar bulls to force events ahead of the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting, details of tax reform and release of data on the US labor market. The support of XAU/USD has uncertainty associated with the choice of a new head of the Fed. Investors are 70% certain that Jerome Powell is the choice, but if they win back the remaining 30% and the seat is taken by John Taylor or Kevin Warsh, then the USD index will rise sideways towards the precious metal fans.

The yield rallies of the Treasury bonds and the US dollar became the main driver of the weakness of gold in October. Macroeconomic data on the US continued to improve, hopes for the implementation of the tax reform turned into a leap, while reducing the degree of geopolitical risks deprived precious metals of its necessary support. In the third quarter, US GDP showed resistance to natural disasters and accelerated to 3% q/q, which pushed up stock indexes, improved the global appetite for risk and led to large-scale selling of safe-havens assets. At the same time, the XAU/USD bulls are under pressure due to expectations on the implementation of fiscal reform. Reducing tax rates will potentially lead to increased consumption and investment. As a result, the US economy will grow steadily by 3%, while the average value since the financial crisis is only at 2.2%, and the growth of 3% and more for two consecutive quarters occurred only 3 times.

In this scenario, inflation will accelerate and will start to get out of the Fed's control. The Central Bank will need more aggressive monetary policy tightening, which is currently expected by the FOMC forecasts. The dollar will regain its authority, and gold will become an outcast. However, not all banks and investment companies adhere to this point of view.

TD Securities draws attention to the fact that in 1984-2012, against the backdrop of the growth of the national debt, the prices of precious metals also rose in accordance with the US GDP. The increase in the budget deficit and public debt worsens the financial position of the world's largest economy, raises the risks of default and supports gold and silver. As a result, they can grow to $1360 and $20 by the end of 2018.

Dynamics of precious metals

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Source: Bloomberg.

One of the bulls for XAU/USD, Mitsubishi Bank also relies on uncertainty. According to the lender, recent months indicated that changes in the legislation are not given in small amounts, and by mid-December the issue of the ceiling of the national debt should be resolved, which will return the focus of investor attention from the second decade of November. These factors allow us to rely on the speedy return of gold above the psychologically important mark of $1300 per ounce.

Technically, precious metal is traded within the framework of consolidation in the range of $1260-1280. A breakthrough of its upper limit and the diagonal resistance will increase the risks of growth of prices towards $ 1295-1300. On the contrary, a successful support test at $1,260 per ounce will pave the way to a target of 200% for the AB=CD pattern.

Gold, daily chart

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The Fed can Support the Dollar

Today, the US Federal Reserve will hold a regular meeting on monetary policy issues. Since the meeting is a "pass-through", which is not accompanied by the publication of macroeconomic forecasts and a press conference by the Fed chair. The markets do not expect any changes, while the probability of raising the rate is less than 3%, according to the CME data. Moreover, all possible intrigue will be centered around the text of the accompanying statements.

The Committee can add the statement on employment reduction in the text. Markets are ready for the appearance of this phrase, as employment is nearly full as of this moment. It is impossible to keep the previous growth rates of new jobs purely statistical. Nevertheless, the previous slowdown can have a negative reaction to the dollar.

Specific attention will turn to the formulation of prospects for US inflation. A report on personal incomes and expenditures in September leads to mixed conclusions that were published on Monday. On one hand, consumer spending grew by 1% compared to August, which is the maximum monthly growth since August 2009, which clearly indicates high consumer activity. At the same time, the explanation for this spike is trivial due to subsequent hurricanes that led a drastic increase in durable goods expenditures, primarily cars. At the same time, the saving rate continues to decline and reached its lowest level in the past 10 years, while the savings ratio of the able-bodied people is falling sharply from the maximum reached in December 2012.

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Thus, the current high levels of consumer activity are threatened to fall already in the short term. According to the plan, the expectations for launching a tax reform should reduce tax pressure on consumers, but can no longer stimulate demand which means that inflation is also under threat.

Also, the market is preparing for the subsequent growth of the dollar despite a number of fears. It is expected that US President Donald Trump will announce his choice for the position as the next Fed chairman on Thursday. According to rumors, the position will be given to Jerome Powell, who is known for his moderately dovish position. Accordingly, the threat of the tightening financial conditions slightly weaken, this could lead to an increase in the dollar as well as to the demand for profitable assets, however, the Japanese yen and the gold will react with a decline.

It is also expected that the ISM index in the manufacturing sector for October will be published today. The large gap between the ISM and the PMI Markit can lead to the ISM leveling at lower levels, which may put a little pressure on the dollar.

On Thursday, preliminary data on labor costs and labor productivity will be published in Q3, experts anticipate for a noticeable excess over Q2, which could provide significant support to the dollar, as it will confirm the trend for stable economic growth.

The key event of the week is the publication of October employment report on Friday. Due to the hurricanes, employment growth in September was negative, and October forecasts show more favorable results, as the number of new jobs had increased for more than 300 thousand, according to experts. This could be regarded as a strong bullish pressure factor on the dollar, otherwise, the growth of the average hourly working fee can slow down to + 0.3% against + 0.5% a month earlier. This parameter can become the key to the development of market reaction towards the publication of the report since it is directly related to inflation outlook and may influence the growth forecasts on interest rates.

Generally, it can be noted that the dollar is slowly but confidently returning to the growth trajectory. The period of uncertainty is over, as investors are waiting for the official presentation of the bill on tax reform in Congress, which is a powerful driver. The dollar will be in demand regardless of the preferred tone by the FOMC for today's meeting. The Japanese yen and Swiss Franc may become outsiders of the week.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Brent Flew Out of the Cage

"Oil will go to the side where the Prince of Saudi Arabia sneezed", this phrase was popular in the market a few years ago, which emphasized the importance of Riyadh for the black gold market. Since then, the situation has changed significantly due to the activity of slate producers in the United States that forced players to reckon with them, but old stories appear now and again. The statement by the Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman regarding the country's commitment to extend the Vienna OPEC agreements on reducing the production until the end of 2018, became one of the key growth drivers for Brent prices above the psychologically important level of $60 per barrel. In case that the president of Russia and the Saudi Arabia had blue-blood talks about the same thing, the case will clearly burn out.

The countries producing black gold in recent years had a hard time. In the conditions of the "bear" markets, Brent and WTI were forced to work in the negative. According to the IMF, the break-even point for Riyadh in 2016 was $96.6 per barrel. In 2018, the figure will drop to $70 per barrel. This talks about the price that supports the fulfillment of spending plans and having a balanced budget. Undoubtedly, the Saudi Arabia is beginning to use rhetoric that supports the "bulls" towards a very little break-even point.

Break-even points of the OPEC countries

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Source: Bloomberg.

Commerzbank notes that the public comments of the Princes on oil are rare, indicating the firm intention of the Saudis to reduce global reserves of black gold to the level of 5-year averages. Since the beginning of the year, the deviation between the actual data and the average value of the indicator has decreased by 160 million barrels, which created a solid foundation for the rally of Brent and WTI.

Along with the news about the possible extension of the Vienna OPEC agreements, the increasing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East supports the "bulls". After the attack by the Kurdish federal troops from the province of Kirkuk, the black gold exports from northern Iraq resumed. At the same time, the intense situation remains and Tehran accuses Russia's Rosneft of concluding contracts with the Kurdistan without the consent of the country's official authorities.

Apparently, it is surprising that increase in prices did not bother speculators. By the end of the week, the net longs for Brent were increased by 2.6% to 506737 contracts by October 24. The indicator feels comfortable near the record marks that took place in September. Net lows for WTI grew for the first time in the last four 5-day periods. The present behavior of large players suggests confidence in shifting the trading range to higher levels compared to the current levels. Over the past 16 months, Brent has been reluctant to leave the border of the channel at $ 45-55 per barrel, is it the right time to do it?

Technically, the North Sea variety managed to achieve an intermediate target of 127.2% for the AB = CD pattern, after which a natural rollback occurred. The situation continues to control the "bulls", and the rebound from the support at $ 59.5 per barrel or the renewal of October high will open the way to $ 62.3.

Brent daily chart

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The new head of the Fed will be named already on Thursday, November 1

The new head of the Federal Reserve will be named on Thursday, November 1.

Morning review.

Trump said that on Thursday, the name of the chosen applicant for the position of the head of the Fed will be announced - the powers of the current head of the Fed Janet Yellen will expire in early 2018.

Here is the list of applicants: National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Stanford University economist John Taylor, former Fed governor Janet Yellen. (President of the Council for Economics under President Harry Cohen, Fed member Jeremy Powell, Stanford economist John Taylor University, former Fed member Kevin Warsh, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen).

Generally speaking, in recent decades (30 years) it was a rule of good taste to retain the former head of the Fed despite a change of administration, regardless of who appointed the head of the Fed - Republicans or Democrats. Let's see what Trump will do.

Will the change of the head of the Fed affect the monetary policy of the Fed? Probably not.

The situation in the US economy is very calm. It is clear that in a year or two there will be a new cyclical crisis, some new "asset bubbles" will be inflated and bursting - but the Fed is now squeezing everything out of its powers to stabilize the dollar financial system (it's the global system).

What about EURUSD?

A new approach down may be seen today - tomorrow - an attempt to break below 1.1575 - and a move to 1.1500 - 1.1460.

The pound is waiting for the decision of the Bank of England to raise (?) rates - on Thursday.

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Breaking Forecast 11/01/2017

Breaking Forecast 11/01/2017

Waiting for the decline of EURUSD.

A day of important news. There is probably a strong movement.

Today on Wednesday, November 1, at 11:15 AM London time, a report on employment in the US for October from the private agency ADP will be released. A strong result is expected, a gain of up to 300, 000.

This can significantly support the dollar.

The main event of the day - in the evening at 5:00 PM London time - the decision of the Federal Reserve on Monetary Policy. We expect some strengthening of the Fed's attention to inflation, which will support the dollar.

In addition, at 1:00 PM London, time there will be a report on industrial production in the US in October - the ISM index (industrial) -which is also expected to show strong data.

So for EURUSD:

Sell from the area of 1.1660 - 1.1700.

It is also possible to sell for a breakthrough down 1.1574.

Targets: 1.1500-1.1475.

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Breaking Forecast 10/31/2017

Breaking Forecast 10.31.2017

All the news is in favor of the US dollar. On Monday, an important report on US consumers' incomes/expenditures was published: revenue growth was +0.4% for the month, expenses + 1% for the month (on the upper range of forecasts).

Inflation, however, according to the PCE index (on the consumer goods basket) is only +1.6% for the year.

However, a report on prices for agricultural production will be published later in the day - and there is quite a confident growth of +6.1% to the level of the previous year.

Thus, before the decision of the Fed on monetary policy on Wednesday, November 1, there strong data on the US economy.

Given the strong decline in the EURUSD rate at the end of last week, a new wave of decline is expected: a breakdown down the EURUSD level of 1.1575 and a decline to 1.1480.

Sell the euro from the 1.1660 - 1.1700 with the targets of 1.1575 - 1.1480.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 1, 2017

Bitcoin has been impulsively bullish after the retest of the $6,000 price level recently. It was expected that the price will retrace much deeply towards the dynamic levels of 20 EMA and Tenkan Sen, but due to heavy bullish momentum, the price pushed higher without any deeper pullback. The last month was very challenging for the Bitcoin whereas it did overcome the obstacles and is currently holding the price above the $6,500 price level. As the price is currently residing above the $6,000 level, the bullish bias can be stated as a very strong, but we might observe some correction along the way towards our target price level of the $7,000 area. The price is quite far away from the dynamic levels, which is expected to pull the price down towards them and push the price higher again towards the target of the $7,000 area. As the price remains above the $6,000 price level, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 02, 2017

USDX is forming fractals around the support area of 94.60 and it is adding a kind of strength to that zone in the short term. The outlook points to a consolidation in favor of the bulls, with the nearest target placed around the 95.85 level once it manages to break above October 27th highs. To the downside, the next support lies in the 200 SMA on the H1 chart.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 95.14 / 95.85

H1 chart's support levels: 94.60 / 93.97

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 95.14, take profit is at 95.85 and stop loss is at 94.47.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 02, 2017

The price action in the GBP/USD pair remains in favor of the bulls temporarily, despite it has been trapped in a narrow range across the board. The resistance zone of 1.3309 is providing a solid barrier for the bulls and if it manages to pull back around that area, further declines are expected towards the 200 SMA on the H1 chart, around 1.3200.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3309 / 1.3437

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3161 / 1.3037

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3161, take profit is at 1.3037 and stop loss is at 1.3282.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 01, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $6.583. On October 31 the world's largest options and futures exchange, CME Group, has announced it will be launching a bitcoin-based derivatives marketplace for future contracts during Q4 of 2017. The US-headquartered financial markets company says there is "increasing interest" for the cryptocurrency options and futures products for mainstream investors. Current technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found testing of support at the price of $6.445, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The momentum is bullish and my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $6.620 (pivot resistance 2) and at the price of $6.820 (extreme intraday target).

Support/Resistance

$6.278 – Pivot level

$6.620 – Pivot resistance 2

$6.820 – Pivot resistance 3

$6.146 – Pivot support 1

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