Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 07/15/20

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The EUR/USD currency pair moves within the range of 1.1400/1.1440, which has repeatedly played the role of resistance in the market. If the market systematically finds the resistance point in the same coordinate, the trader receives a signal of a possible reversal in advance. That is why, if the pattern associated with the area of 1.1400/1.1440 is repeated, then we will see a downward movement again.

It is recommended to sell the pair at a price lower than 1.1380 with the prospect of a movement to 1.1350-1.1300.

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For the GBP/USD currency pair, the quote has a slight slowdown within the range of 1.2565/1.2580, which arose after a sharp upward price movement. If the price has a closed cycle of oscillation, then a breakdown of one or another border can give the market a local movement in the direction of breakdown. Thus, our trading tactics will be to work on the breakdown of one of the framework of 1.2565/1.2580

- It is recommended to buy a pair at a price above 1.2585 with the prospect of a movement to 1.2620

- It is recommended to sell a pair at a price lower than 1.2560 with the prospect of a movement to 1.2540-1.2500

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Weak dollar and rising positive expectations support demand for risky assets; Overview of USD, NZD, and AUD

The business optimism index of small businesses rose in June to 100.6p, significantly exceeding the forecast of 90.9p, consumer inflation in June rose by 0.6%, which is also a positive signal after declining by 0.1% in May, allowing us to count on an increase in consumer activity.

At the same time, the dollar didn't react at all to the published data, since their positive significance could not influence the general negative outlook for the state of the US economy. The Federal budget deficit in June 2020 amounted to $ 864 billion, compared with a deficit of $ 8 billion in the same month last year. This increase is due to the economic disruption caused by COVID-19 and the response of the federal government to it, including the administration's actions and the adoption of four legislative acts.

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The deficit amounted to 2.7 trillion dollars for the first 9 months of fiscal year 2020, budget revenues declined by 28% compared to June 2019 and the deficit grew by 2 trillion from April to June. Hopes that some of the uncollected revenue will go to the budget later this year look poorly justified, since the number of bankruptcies is growing at the same time.

The growth of the NFIB index is mainly based on a significant amount of financial support, as soon as this assistance begins to decline, optimism will immediately decline, and a reduction, given the deplorable state of the budget, is inevitable.

Nevertheless, it is currently necessary to proceed from the fact that optimism prevails despite the threat of another wave of COVID propagation. Stock indices in Asia-Pacific countries add more than a percent after US exchanges were closed yesterday, OPEC + countries are preparing to reduce quotas for limiting oil production, an API report this morning confirmed that oil demand is recovering - as of July 10, stocks declined by 8.332 million barrels. At the same time, the dollar looks weak, and this weakness will dominate for some time; due to this, commodity currencies will be favorites in the coming days.

NZD/USD

The estimated fair price of NZD returned to the level of early March, the NZD/USD rate rose after it, having almost exhausted the effect of panic sales amid the spread of coronavirus, the trend remains positive.

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After the restrictions are lifted, New Zealand reopens for tourism, however, statistics on the number of tourists arriving are not yet available, it is also unclear how much the level of demand will increase due to the opening of borders. ANZ monthly inflation study reinforces a positive mood. Inflation was 2.4% y/y in June, which means that a strong decline in consumer demand, as in most G10 countries, was avoided. Tomorrow, we will most likely receive official confirmation from the Bureau of Statistics, and NZD may respond to the publication growth.

Technically, the pattern of the NZD remains bullish. Testing the level of 0.6583 led to a pullback to the support zone of 0.6200/20, the probability of a second attempt, more hasty, looks high. Meanwhile, purchases from current levels are considered. The bullish momentum will be confirmed when the day closes above 0.6590, and the growth may strengthen.

AUD/USD

According to the CFTC report, the short position on the Australian has declined almost to zero. The positivity remains, the estimated price is growing steadily, and the chances of updating the June maximum remain high.

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The NAB Bank confidence index in the business environment significantly exceeded forecasts and activity is recovering faster than expected. Consumption returned to levels at the beginning of 2020, which gives reason to expect a weaker decline in GDP in the second quarter than was forecast a month ago.

If there are no political decisions that can provoke a new wave of panic sales, the AUD will take advantage of the favorable market conditions and continue to rise. Testing the level of 0.7063 seems almost inevitable, after which the bullish sentiment will strengthen. There is no reason for sales. Thus, the recommendation is to keep and strengthen purchases when updating the maximum.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 15, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After the GBP/USD pair had made a Double Top price pattern at the level of 1.2668, the bears have managed to push the prices towards the level of 1.2484 which is the key short-term technical support for the market. The price has bounced from support, but no new high was made yet ( the local high was made at the level of 1.2586. The bulls might try to test the trend line from below, but this move would require more momentum in order to get to the level of 1.2640. The RSI indicator shows the momentum is neutral, so neither bulls not bears are in control of the market (on the short-term time frame like H4). Any violation of the level of 1.2466 will accelerate the sell-off towards the next technical support seen at the level of 1.2406.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2915

WR2 - 1.2796

WR1 - 1.2712

Weekly Pivot - 1.2585

WS1 - 1.2508

WS2 - 1.2378

WS3 - 1.2304

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move even lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 15, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair keeps moving higher and in the last wave up the bulls tested the supply zone located between the levels of 1.1403 - 1.1419. Another Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern has been made at the top of the move up, but bulls are not giving up. This is the sixth attempt to rally above the supply zone, so despite those two indications of a possible down trend in progress, the bears must try harder and increase the momentum in order to control the market. The RSI indicator shows the positive and strong momentum, so the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1447.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1497

WR2 - 1.1428

WR1 - 1.1365

Weekly Pivot - 1.1301

WS1 - 1.1233

WS2 - 1.1170

WS3 - 1.1101

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 15, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

According to his head, the UK central bank is considering the option of introducing a digital currency. Speaking at an online event, Bank of England President Andrew Bailey told a group of UK students that the bank is debating such a move, according to financial media. Bailey said ongoing investigations will concern the central bank digital currency (CBDC), which would affect 'payments and society'. Calling it a "very big problem," he expected CBDC to be a viable option in a few years, when the coronavirus crisis passed.

Bailey's comments appear at a time when more and more central banks around the world are working at different levels on the idea of introducing CBDC, either as a national digital currency for retailing, or for wholesale settlement and settlement between banks.

The Swedish Riksbank, the world's oldest central bank, recently analyzed CBDC profitability and achieved mixed results for central banking purposes, citing the significant change and costs associated with the transition to digital technology. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve also determined that CBDC could one day replace the role of commercial banks, but with the additional risk of potentially damaging money markets.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair keeps trading below the short-term trend line resistance and below the local technical resistance located at $9,240. The past Pin Bar candlestick low was made at the level of $9,052, which is below the 61% Fibonacci retractement located at $9,082. If violated again, then the drop might accelerate towards the level of $8,860. The momentum is still hovering around the neutral level, but there is no sign of increased bullish activity. Only a sustained breakout through the trend line resistance might put the bulls back to control over the market again.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,016

WR2 - $9,728

WR1 - $9,448

Weekly Pivot - $9,161

WS1 - $8,884

WS2 - $8,576

WS3 - $8,302

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 15, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

PayPal has confirmed that it is developing opportunities in the area of cryptocurrencies, in accordance with a letter to the European Commission. The document was originally submitted on March 20 and was to respond to the European Commission's public consultation on building an EU framework for crypto-asset markets.

In the letter, the payment giant admitted that it "constantly monitors and assesses global changes in cryptographic space and Blockchain / DLT", emphasizing that it advocates a "harmonious" regulatory approach that would not threaten innovation.

In addition, PayPal referred to its relationship with cryptographic resources, noting that in 2019 he joined Libra Association to learn "more about the proposed use of Blockchain technology to provide financial services to non-banking populations around the world," but later resigned, because he started working on his own solutions in space:

"From the beginning of the project, PayPal has taken unilateral and tangible steps to further develop its capabilities in this area, and therefore - without questioning the value of the project - has decided not to participate in the Libra Association and further focus on the implementation of our current missions and business priorities for democratization access to financial services ".

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the local low at $236.31, which was just above the local technical support located at $235.42. The bulls was trying to break through the trend line resistance again, but the rally was short-lived and the market reversed. If the drop is continued, then the next targets for bears are seen at the levels of $232.04 and $224.39. Please notice, the momentum starts to decrease as well which is in line with the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $274.89

WR2 - $261.89

WR1 - $250.42

Weekly Pivot - $236.01

WS1 - $225.12

WS2 - $210.17

WS3 - $199.13

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 15 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Pound buyers are not going to let the

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bear's attempt to continue the downward trend below the level of 1.2511 turned out to be unsuccessful yesterday. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that after the breakout of this range, which was prepared for the entire European session, sellers tried to gain a foothold below the level of 1.2511, but this did not lead to continuing the bear market. The bulls took advantage of good data on US inflation and almost completely regained all the positions lost after the UK GDP data. At the moment, the task of buyers is to protect the support of 1.2549, which will surely be tested today after the release of UK inflation data. Forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to buy the pound while expecting growth to continue to the resistance of 1.2615, consolidating on it will be an additional entry point into long positions. The main goal of the bulls is to return to the week's high in the area of 1.2666, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears are stronger and regain support of 1.2549, I advise you to postpone long positions until the low of 1.2482 is updated, or buy immediately on the rebound from support of 1.2435, based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. In the COT report for July 7, it is indicated that during the week there was an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 55,414, to the level of 56,300. Long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 34,424 to the level of 39,892. As a result, the non-commercial net position decreased its negative value to -16,408, against -20,990, which indicates that the market is still under pressure after the bulls' unsuccessful attempt to continue the upward trend, but the picture is gradually shifting to the neutral side.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Pound sellers need to be more aggressive in order to not miss the recently formed downward trend. The main task for the first half of the day is to return and consolidate below the support of 1.2549, which will increase pressure on the pair and lead to an update of the low of 1.2482. The intermediate support of 1.2435 is still the long-term goal, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a good report on inflation in the UK, the bears will have to protect the resistance of 1.2615 and form a false breakout there, which will be a signal to open short positions. Larger sellers will wait for the test of this week's high of 1.2666 and sell GBP/USD from there immediately on the rebound based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. However, it should be understood that an update to the 1.2666 resistance will indicate a break in the downward correction and a return of the bull market.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an active opposition of players for the further direction of the market.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the upper limit of the indicator at 1.2585 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. If the pound falls, the lower border of the indicator around 1.2496 will provide support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on July 15, 2020

Everything was supposed to only depend on inflation in the United States, but instead, the determining factor was the relationship between the world's two largest economies. The United States, in effect, imposed new sanctions on China by passing a law that lifted Hong Kong's special position in terms of trade and financial privileges that made it easier for companies registered in the city to access the US market. In response, China announced that it will soon impose sanctions on individuals and companies involved in the adoption of this law. So the trade war between the United States and China is just gaining momentum. It is not strange that this only negatively affects the dollar. The fact is that China is the largest economy in the world. Therefore, the advantage is on its side.

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In addition, the market actually ignored data on industrial production in the UK, the decline of which slowed down from -23.8% to -20.0%. But it was expected that the pace of recession would slow down somewhat less, only to -20.3%. The state of affairs in the British industry was slightly better than expected.

Industrial Production (UK):

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But of course, it is much more interesting that due to the next round of confrontation between China and the United States, market participants were too distracted to turn to US inflation. Although it has grown from 0.1% to 0.6%. It coincided with the most optimistic forecasts. And from this it follows that the Federal Reserve, at least in the near future, will not take any steps to soften its monetary policy. But the trade war between the two largest economies in the world overshadowed everything.

Inflation (United States):

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Obviously, in the near future, relations between the United States and China will determine investor sentiment. Especially if China moves from words to actions. But the pound has a certain reason for moderate optimism even without this. Indeed, inflation is also expected in the UK, from 0.5% to 0.6%. And unlike the dollar, the threat of sanctions from China is not yet hanging over the pound. There are fears that inflation may not grow, but decrease, to 0.4%. In this case, the pound will be forced to somewhat surrender its position.

Inflation (UK):

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If we do not receive specifics from China regarding retaliatory sanctions today, then the dollar has a chance of a slight increase. These chances are related to industry, the decline rate of which should slow down from -15.3% to -6.2%. And it is immediately evident that the scale of the decline in US industry is not as catastrophic as in Great Britain. That is, the American economy is clearly feeling no worse. Rather, much better.

Industrial production (Great Britain):

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In terms of technical analysis, there is a surge in activity from the support level of 1.2500, where the pound sterling locally managed to jump towards the value of 1.2580, after which there was a slowdown. In fact, the market still has a speculative interest, which plays with the quote in a chaotic manner, but at the same time holding it on the horizontal course for at least 3.5 months.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that the key levels that traders most often pay attention to are the coordinates: 1.2620(+/-30p); 1.2500; 1.2350; 1.2150.

We can assume a temporary price fluctuation within the current stagnation of 1.2562/1.2586, where the next move will be relative to the price taking points.

Specifying all of the above into trading signals:

- Short positions, we consider lower than 1.2560, with the prospect of a move to 1.2500.

- Long positions, we consider higher than 1.2590, with the prospect of a move to 1.2620.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we have a versatile signal, where hourly periods tend to sell, and daily periods still signal a purchase. Relative to minute intervals, there is a buy signal.

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Instant Forecast For GBP/CHF July 15, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, GBP/CHF is now heading toward 1.1730 to purge the whole Liquidity Pool there. Please pay attention to the retracement upwards during the journey to that level. As long as the currency pair does not close above 1.1829, the price will stay moving into the level of the Liquidity Pool.

(Disclaimer)

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for July 15, 2020

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EUR/GBP has recovered from the 0.8936 low. More upside pressure is expected to above the 0.9175 peak and ultimately higher towards 0.9499 peak.

Short-term we could see a minor set-back to support near 0.9034 where the next push higher should be expected. Only a break below 0.8936 will cause a revision of our bullish outlook.

R3: 0.9175

R2: 0.9113

R1: 0.9074

Pivot: 0.9064

S1: 0.9050

S2: 0.9034

S3: 0.9012

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8646 and we will move our stop higher to 0.8630.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 15, 2020

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EUR/JPY broke out short-term key-resistance at 121.96 and we are back to the bullish count. It means that wave 3 is likely to rise to at least 129.64 and closer to the 161.8% extension target at 135.42.

Short-term the rally from 120.23 looks unlikely and a minor pull-back to 121.43 should be expected before the next push higher towards 124.32 and above.

Only a break below support at 120.23 will change the larger bullish outlook.

R3: 123.20

R2: 122.73

R1: 122.50

Pivot: 122.25

S1: 122.06

S2: 121.85

S3: 121.43

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 122.00 was hit for a minor loss of 65 pips. We will buy EUR at 121.50 or upon a break above 122.50

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 15 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Euro buyers continue bullish trend ahead

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Buyers of the euro managed to break above the level of 1.1373 yesterday and continued to push the pair after good US inflation data. The resistance area of 1.1399 was a small stop, where the bears tried to turn the market in their direction, which can be seen on the 5-minute chart. The technical picture has changed at the moment. The buyers will initially aim for the resistance of 1.1419, consolidating on it will be a new signal to open long positions, which can lead to a high of 1.1462, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.1514 area is still the long-term goal. But do not forget that the European Central Bank will hold a meeting tomorrow, so the desire of investors to increase long positions at current highs will be limited. A more optimal scenario for buying euros will be a downward correction to the support area of 1.1363, from where you can open long positions immediately for a rebound based on 20-25 points of correction. If bulls are not active in this range, it is best to wait for an update of a low of 1.1307 and buy EUR/USD there. It is also worth remembering that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for July 7 recorded an increase in long positions and a very small rise in short ones, which indicates a gradual increase in demand for risky assets. There are more and more people who want to buy euros in current conditions and at high prices. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 81,432 to the level of 81,562, while long non-commercial positions jumped from the level of 180,387 to the level of 185,159. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position increased to 103,597, against 98,955, which indicates an increase in interest in purchasing risky assets at current prices.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers still have problems. The main task today for the first half of the day is to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1419, which will force speculative buyers of the euro to consolidate some positions. In turn, this will lead to a downward correction to the support area of 1.1363, where the main struggle for direction will unfold. There are also moving averages in this range, which will make life difficult for sellers. Consolidating below the support of 1.1363 will increase pressure on the euro, which will be an additional sell signal with the main goal of returning to the level of 1.1307, where I recommend taking profits. If bears are not active at the level of 1.1419, it is best not to rush to sell against the trend, but wait for an update of new highs in the area of 1.1462 and 1.1514, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Breaking the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1425 will lead to an increase in the euro. A break in the lower border at 1.1363 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/NZD forecast for July 15, 2020.

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On the 4-hour chart, GBP/NZD is now about to test the previous day low at 1.9145 as its primary target. If bearish momentum is strong then the pair may reach its secondary target at 1.9118. This scenario is likely to come true if the pair does not rise and close above the 1.9241 level.

(Disclaimer)

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AUDUSD holding above trendline support! Further rise expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.69930

Reason for Entry: 100% Fibonacci extension, ascending trendline support, moving average support

Take Profit: 0.70141

Reason for Take Profit: -27.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.69764

Reason for Stop Loss: 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

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USDCAD bouncing off 1st support, possible bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3578

Reason for Entry: Horizontal overlap support

Take Profit :1.3638

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss:1.3538

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing low support

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 15, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro grew (56 points) yesterday, and it reached the nearest target of 1.1420 this morning, which may go down in a correction, or to go over it and to continue growth to the nearest target of 1.1465, which essentially is the upper limit of the target range 1.1420/65 or much higher to the goal of 1.1560, but rather in the 1.1550/60 range, the lower limit of which is the low of November 2017. The euro's growth outlook is mixed. The main scenario assumes a price reversal to form a divergence with the Marlin oscillator, and in case of a price reversal from 1.1420, the divergence will already take place, but the price still needs to grow for a stronger pattern. In a scenario of continued growth, the price can go much higher than 1.1560 with a high-growing Marlin, there will be no divergence.

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The Marlin double divergence has almost formed on the H4 chart. There is a probability of a price reversal from the current level. Further growth can be expected after pinning the price above 1.1420, the option with a reversal will become relevant after the price goes under the signal level of 1.1349, which is the June 23 high. In this case targets will be the marked levels on the daily chart: 1.1265, 1.1195.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on July 15, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is rising for the second day. The signal level of 0.7000 (marked on H4) has been overcome, now the aussie is aiming for 0.7080 (July 2019 high) and it is open. Pinning above the level opens the way to the target range of 0.7190-0.7225. If the price growth is quite brisk, we can expect a triple divergence to form on the Marlin oscillator in this range. Accordingly, a reversal in the medium-term decline.

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Marlin is growing aggressively on the four-hour chart. If the price reaches the target level of 0.7080, then Marlin will be high in overbought, an aggressive correction to the current levels (0.7000) or lower is likely.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 15, 2020

USD/JPY

The price has not changed much over the past day, which has kept the technical picture almost unchanged, both on the daily and four-hour scale. The Marlin oscillator is located in the negative part of the indicator on the daily chart, which is in the downward trend zone.

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The price is probably gathering strength to overcome the strong support of 106.95 - the MACD line near the embedded line of the price channel. The price's exit above yesterday's high of 107.44 may extend the growth to the target level of 107.77.

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It is noticeable on the four-hour chart that the price did not attack the resistance of the MACD line after testing this line twice. A decrease in the price under the balance line (yesterday's low) will open the gates to the goal of 105.68 – to support the embedded line of the price channel (marked on the daily). The final sign of this scenario will be price taking at 106.95.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair for July 15. COT report. California reintroduces hard quarantine. Bears

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair, unlike the EUR/USD pair, started a downward movement and continues it. The support level of 1.2497 was reached yesterday, from which the price successfully rebounded and at the moment adjusted to the critical Kijun-sen line, which is very convenient, since now we will find out in the next few hours whether there will be a rebound from this line or a closure over it. In the first case, the initiative in the market will remain in the hands of sellers and the downward movement will continue with new goals indicated by the red arrows in the illustration. In the second case, the bulls will have a chance to resume moving up, at least to the resistance area of 1.2668-1.2688, which the pair has reached three times in recent days.

GBP/USD 15M

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The lower linear regression channel turned up on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling a correction. Thus, it is now extremely important for sellers to stay below the Kijun-sen line, so that the correction does not go into an upward trend. The latest COT report was absolutely logical and reflects the essence of what is happening at this time in the currency market for the pound/dollar pair. Professional traders opened 6,743 Buy-contracts and as many as 12 Sell-contracts during the reporting week. Thus, the total net position in the commercial category immediately increased by 6,700. Despite the fact that the total number of contracts in the commercial category is approximately 115,000, and the preponderance of Buy over Sell was -21 thousand, which is +6,700 in the net position - this is a serious strengthening of the bullish mood. However, the pound is mostly cheaper at the beginning of the new week. It is still difficult to say whether this movement will continue, but the COT report may show changes in favor of sellers at the end of the new reporting week.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair does not change much. Latest report showed that the UK GDP began to recover in May, but at a much slower pace than market participants expected. In addition, UK doctors predict a second wave of the pandemic, which will be much stronger than the first and will take 2.5 times more lives. On this news, the British pound began a new round of decline. However, if the UK is only predicting new epidemiological problems, then the United States is sitting in them up to their ears. Yesterday it became known that one of the largest and most economically active states of America – California - is again closed for quarantine. This was reported by its governor, Gavin Newsom. The reason, of course, is the coronavirus, the increase in cases of which is growing at an alarming rate, as stated by Newsom. Restaurants, bars, concert venues, zoos and museums should prohibit visitors from entering their premises, but they will be allowed to carry out their activities outdoors. At the same time, World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that "the actions of many governments do not correspond to the status of the number one COVID virus problem in the world at this time." Ghebreyesus said that the epidemic will spread further and deeper if governments around the world do not take serious and decisive measures to counteract it. "There will be no return to the old normal for the foreseeable future", Ghebreyesus said.

There are two main scenarios as of July 15:

1) The bullish outlook dramatically worsened at the start of the new trading week. At this time, the pair's purchases are no longer relevant, as quotes have gone below the critical line and below the rising channel. Thus, we recommend that you return to buying the British pound, but not before crossing the Kijun-sen line of the Ichimoku indicator, which lies at 1.2573. The goal is the resistance area of 1.2668-1.2688. Potential Take Profit in this case will be about 90 points.

2) Sellers are advised to resume trading on a lower level with targets at support level 1.2497, Senkou Span B line (1.2458) and support level 1.2375 if a rebound follows from the Kijun-sen line. Today's reports on UK inflation and US industrial production are unlikely to fundamentally change the mood of traders. Potential Take Profit range from 60 to 180 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair for July 15. COT report. Buyers dominate, aiming for 1.1422-1.1432.

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair corrected to the critical Kijun-sen line and rebounded off it on the hourly timeframe on July 14. Thus, buyers dominated the market again despite the fact that they released quotes from the ascending channel a few days earlier. As a result, the ascending channel had to be rebuilt and now it signals an upward trend again. At the same time, we note that the bulls do not completely dominate the pair right now. Very frequent corrections, each of which can potentially result in a change of the trend to a downward one. In general, as we mentioned in the fundamental reviews, now is not the most convenient time to work with the EUR/USD pair. However, everything does not look as bad as on the higher ones on the hourly chart. The pair managed to break out of the 1.1200–1.1350 side channel, so certain prospects are opening up for the euro.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are still directed upwards on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling an upward trend in the most short-term plan. There are no signs of starting a new round of corrective movement at the moment. The latest COT report from July 7 was quite boring. The most interesting category of large traders commercial, which is a set of professional traders who trade for commercial profit, opened almost 6,000 Buy-contracts and only 1,700 Sell-contracts. Thus, the net position for this category has increased by almost 4,000, which, simply put, means that the bullish mood of major players has increased. In principle, the beginning of a new trading week confirms this attitude of professional traders, as the euro continues to rise in price against the dollar. Slowly but surely. The total number of Buy-contracts for professional traders is also much higher than the number of Sell-contracts – 186,000 against 80,000.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair did not change at all on Tuesday, as did the mood of the market participants themselves. Several relatively important macroeconomic reports did not particularly change the picture of things, as markets continue to pay more attention to the coronavirus epidemic in the United States, the statements of the country's chief epidemiologist Anthony Fauci, which are completely opposite to the optimistic statements of the head of state Donald Trump, as well as the very gloomy prospects for the American economy if the second wave of coronavirus is not stopped in the near future. The European Union is more calm. The EU summit will be held this week, during which the most important issue for the bloc will be resolved – the issue of forming an economic recovery fund and the issue of approving the budget for 2021-2027. All 27 EU member states need to agree that 750 billion euros should be raised and distributed among the most affected sectors of the economy, as proposed by the European Commission. Thus, we can expect the euro to fall after the end of the summit, if there are no positive results. Otherwise, the euro's fate will depend on traders, who will sooner or later take a time-out and the pair will begin to adjust at least. It is difficult to expect more than a correction for the US currency in the current conditions.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for July 15:

1) Buyers pushed back from the critical Kijun-sen line and resumed purchases after a slight correction. Thus, the trend remains unambiguously upward, but do not forget about the frequent pullbacks and corrections that are now inherent in the euro/dollar pair. Judging by the last few bars, traders are preparing for a correction, however, the goals for long positions remain the same - resistance levels of 1.1432 and 1.1494. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 40 to 100 points.

2) The bears have failed to cross the Senkou Span B line or the Kijun-sen line over the past few days. Therefore, we state the fact: sellers do not have enough strength to start a new downward trend at this time. Thus, we advise you to sell the euro, but not before overcoming the Kijun-sen line, and ideally after closing below a new rising channel, while aiming for supporting levels of 1.1238 and 1.1176. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 50 to 110 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How to trade ahead of the ECB and the Bank of England meetings?

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The dollar index still tends to decline, trading in a narrow range. The US dollar accelerated the pace of its decline against a basket of competitors on Tuesday in the US session. The indicator went below the level of 96.30. Thus, it broke down the border of the medium-term upward trend.

The US dollar may still benefit from the spread of the coronavirus in the short term. It is the fears of a pandemic that keep it from falling even further now. The long-term forecast remains bearish if we consider that COVID-19 will still be defeated. However, opportunities for growth in the short and medium term cannot be excluded. A jump can happen on a major correction of the US stock market.

In general, the greenback has a lot of negative factors. These include a drop in demand for dollar liquidity and weak interest in protective assets. Additional difficulties for it include increasing the rating of the US presidential candidate Joe Biden. The policy of the Democrats is just a bearish factor for the dollar.

USDX

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At the same time, the dollar was growing against the British pound on Tuesday, continuing the trend that had begun the day before. However, it is more likely that the dollar is not growing, but the pound is falling, as the bearish dynamics of the GBP/USD pair is connected with the news in Britain.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made it clear that the central bank will have to resort to more aggressive quantitative easing to overcome the crisis in the country. Earlier, Bailey said that the central bank is considering a scenario of negative rates. Now the rate is 0.1%, but "we are extremely close to zero interest rates," Bailey said.

The pound received an additional negative from the publication of UK GDP data for May. The economy grew by only 1.8%, while markets were counting on 5% growth. The indicators in the construction and manufacturing sectors turned out to be very weak.

The GBP/USD pair was trading in the positive during the US session, which is mainly due to increased pressure on the greenback. Trading volatility increased after the publication of consumer price indices in the United States.

Despite the rise in sterling earlier this month, it remains under pressure from fundamental factors. These are the risks of a hard Brexit and an expected slowdown in the country's economy, undermined by the coronavirus pandemic. The pound once again went to the zone below the key resistance level of 1.2580.

If the pound continues to trade around this level without a hint of a higher exit, then short positions on the GBP/USD pair will be preferred. A breakout of the 1.2490 support will confirm the scenario for a subsequent decline in sterling.

GBP/USD

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As for the alternative scenario, the pound's growth, it is worth looking at the breakout of 1.2580 and the local resistance level of 1.2670. If this happens, the GBP/USD pair will resume the upward trend.

The euro's position looks pretty good now. The EUR/USD pair continues to develop growth waves to around 1,1400. Given the upward trend, it can be assumed that after a small correction, the quote will continue to grow to the resistance level of 1.1420. In this case, do not exclude the possibility of returning to the price of 1.1300.

EUR/USD

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The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held on Thursday. The regulator can now afford to relax a little. Two important tasks have been completed – financial markets have been stabilized and economic activity has been rebooted together with the EU government. Signs of recovery can be seen in macroeconomic publications. It is unlikely that the ECB will be able to surprise the euro at this meeting after three rounds of powerful stimulus.

According to the latest data, the ECB has no reason to expect sharp changes in inflation, despite the fact that inflationary pressures have appeared in some parts of the economy. In general, conditions for slowing inflation prevail. So far, officials of the European regulator do not have a good reason to correct the policy. The status quo will probably be maintained.

The euro will lose an important driver of growth if the gloomy forecasts of Wall Street experts come to life. Now the rally of US stock indexes does not allow the dollar to take a full breath.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 15. A "winter wave" of "coronavirus" in the UK could claim the lives of another 120,000

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -121.2859

The British pound, unlike the European currency, was trading lower on Tuesday, July 14. On the one hand, the reason for the uncorrelation of the two main currency pairs could be the macroeconomic statistics from the UK, which turned out to be quite weak. On the other hand, no less weak statistics from the Eurozone were ignored by market participants, so such a conclusion can not be considered unambiguous. It should also be noted that the nature of the movement of both pairs in recent months has been completely different. The euro currency has spent the last month in an absolutely indistinct sideways or weak upward movement. While the pound was trading very actively and did not standstill. At the same time, it is the position of the British pound in the foreign exchange market that now looks weakest due to the uncertainty associated with the future relationship between the European Union and Britain, as well as an extremely strong fall in the British economy as a result of the pandemic and Brexit. However, the British currency regularly shows growth, which we correlate with the epidemiological emergency in the United States, as well as the political and economic crisis in this country. As we wrote earlier, the Fed lowered key rates "almost to zero", so the strength of the monetary policies of these two states equalized. The US dollar no longer has the unquestionable advantage that it previously had.

Macroeconomic statistics from the UK disappointed traders. GDP in May was recorded at +1.8%, although traders expected to see at least +5% after the failed -20.4% a month earlier. Industrial production, as in the European Union, decreased by 20% in annual terms, which was more or less ready for market participants. Such a package of statistics could not cause the British pound to strengthen. Therefore, the GDP report may have created additional pressure on the British pound. Also, negative news continues to come from the fields of Brexit. According to the survey, only a quarter of all UK companies are fully prepared to complete the transition period and switch to the EU trade regime under WTO rules.

Meanwhile, no less negative forecasts are given by representatives of the UK health sector. According to them, in 2020-2021, the country will face the so-called "winter wave" of the epidemic, which will be much worse than the first "wave", which claimed the lives of about 45,000 people, which is the highest figure in all of Europe. A report from the British Academy of Medical Sciences says that people spend much more time indoors in winter, which contributes to the faster and easier spread of infection. Thus, between September and June, about 120,000 Britons may die from COVID. The author of the report, Professor Stephen Holgate, believes that if the necessary measures are taken now, it will be possible to avoid such a scenario. "This is not a prediction, but it is a possibility. The model suggests that there may be more fatalities with a new wave of COVID-19 this winter, but the risk of this can be reduced if immediate action is taken," said Professor Holgate. The Academy of Medical Sciences believes that under the current circumstances, it is necessary to more actively vaccinate the population against influenza, more widely test the population for "coronavirus", constantly remind the population of the importance of observing safety measures, improve the definition of epidemic foci and more effectively localize them.

At the same time, the US recorded a record budget deficit. In June, it amounted to $ 864 billion, which is much higher than the average annual value. The deficit came from the fact that the White House and Congress allocated trillions of dollars to support the economy. But tax revenues during the pandemic were greatly reduced, as at least 25 million workers were laid off, which significantly reduced tax revenues to the Treasury. Meanwhile, the total public debt in the United States has already exceeded $ 26 trillion. The Budget Office forecasts that the budget deficit will be at least $ 3.7 billion in 2020.

Meanwhile, the American president Donald Trump does not allow you to forget about yourself for a day. A few months ago, we reported that YouGov conducted quite an interesting study, which resulted in the figure of 14,000. That's how many times, according to YouGov calculations, Donald Trump was misled in his speeches, comments, and social media posts. A similar study was conducted by the Washington Post, which estimated that the US President has already made more than 20 thousand erroneous or deceptive statements. That is, on average, Donald Trump makes thirteen false statements a day. However, the Washington Post's research is much more in-depth. For example, the publication reports that most often Trump made false statements on the topics of his impeachment, the "coronavirus" pandemic, as well as the racist scandal caused by the death of George Floyd. The publication also reports that most often the President made statements that do not correspond to reality when he spoke about the US economy, that it achieved the best state in the history of the country. Also, Trump lied when he said that he had the largest tax cut in the history of the country. Such statistics again do not paint Trump in the run-up to the presidential election.

In the UK, the consumer price index for June is scheduled to be published on the third trading day of the week. According to experts' forecasts, inflation will slow even more and amounted to 0.4% in June. In monthly terms, the price increase will be 0%. It is possible that in reality, we will see even weaker figures, but the main question now is how market participants look at the topics of the deep economic crisis in the UK, complete uncertainty in the future, and the topic of the epidemiological crisis in the US. Judging by the fact that the quotes of the pound/dollar pair were fixed below the moving average line, the trend changed to a downward one, and traders began to pay more attention to the problems of the Foggy Albion. Thus, in the near future, we still expect a further decline in the pound. However, the reverse fixing of the price above the moving average can bring buyers back into the game. Both linear regression channels are directed upwards.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 88 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Wednesday, July 15, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2458 and 1.2634. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a possible resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2512

S2 – 1.2451

S3 – 1.2390

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2573

R2 – 1.2634

R3 – 1.2695

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has started a new round of downward correction on the 4-hour timeframe, which may turn into a downward trend. Thus, today it is recommended to open sell orders with the goals of 1.2451 and 1.2390 if the Heiken Ashi indicator does not turn up in the next few hours. It is recommended to resume buying the pair after fixing quotes above the moving average with the first goals of 1.2634 and 1.2695.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 15. The "coronavirus" mutates and becomes more contagious. The United States is waiting

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 180.3218

The second trading day of the week again remained behind the European currency, which slowly but surely continues to creep up. The upward movement has not stopped since June 26, that is, for 13 working days. During this period, the pair managed to cover a distance of approximately 150 points. Judge for yourself whether this can be called an "upward trend". Moreover, during the past day, the pair again traded near the Murray level of "5/8"-1.1353, which is also the upper limit of the side channel 1.1200-1.1350, in which the pair has been trading for more than a month. Thus, the current technical picture is quite ambiguous. On the one hand, there is a side channel, above which buyers have not managed to gain a foothold, on the other - a weak upward trend. One thing is for sure - now is not the most favorable time to conduct trading. The movements of the euro/dollar pair are multidirectional alternating segments.

As we expected, the macroeconomic statistics of the last day did not have any impact on the mood of market participants. Yesterday, the consumer price index in Germany for June was published first. This indicator fully coincided with the forecast values, amounting to 0.9% in annual terms and 0.6% in monthly terms. A little later, data from the ZEW Institute was published, which reflects the mood in the business environment of Germany and the European Union. Without going into the figures, we can say that all three indicators were worse than the forecast values. Absolute values of indicators indicate that investors are very skeptical about the current state of the German and EU economies, but still optimistic about the future. But industrial production in the European Union turned out to be much worse than experts' forecasts. In annual terms, the reduction was 20.9% with a forecast of -20.0%, and in monthly terms - an increase of 12.4% with a forecast of 15.0%. Thus, the conclusions on European statistics are unambiguous – it failed. However, the euro currency was trading higher in the European session. In the afternoon, the United States published a report on inflation for June, which showed 0.6% in annual and monthly terms for the main indicator and +1.2% y/y and +0.2% m/m for the indicator excluding food and energy. In general, these values almost completely coincided with the forecast. They are neither optimistic nor pessimistic. So the general conclusion is this. In the European session, traders had reason to sell the euro but did not do so. There was no reason to change the mood in the American session. In general, the entire package of macroeconomic information was ignored.

Meanwhile, more and more media are paying attention to the raging "coronavirus" epidemic in the United States. According to the American doctor Chad Krilich, the second "wave" is currently taking place in the United States, but after it, there will be a third. The doctor also said that in the near future we should not expect a vaccine against "coronavirus", as "this is a very long and time-consuming process". Meanwhile, Hong Kong scientists have concluded that the "coronavirus" has mutated and is now even more contagious than before. Previously, a person with the COVID-2019 virus could potentially infect three other people, but now this figure has increased to four. This was stated by the Dean of the medical school of the University of Hong Kong, Professor Gabriel Leung. Earlier, the same was reported by the chief epidemiologist of the United States Anthony Fauci. Dr. Fauci, who remains at this time almost the main actor in America, continues to conflict with President Donald Trump based on the epidemic. The conflict is very simple. The doctor makes statements based on his knowledge, experience, and research, which Donald Trump does not like, who makes his statements based on nothing. The leader of the American nation does not like that Fauci's attitude is too pessimistic and he constantly predicts deterioration of the situation. Fauci's latest statement, made on July 14, states that "the US authorities have not been able to impose a total quarantine, which is why we are currently seeing a huge increase in new cases". According to the epidemiologist, the United States managed to achieve a significant reduction in the number of diseases, to about 20,000 per day, which is not so terrible for a multi-million country. But at this point, it was necessary to maintain the "lockdown", instead, the government began to remove restrictive measures and received a second "wave" of the pandemic, according to Fauci. Also, Fauci said that now the country does not need to introduce a full range of restrictions, it is enough to "roll back a little" and then prudently take steps towards lifting the restrictions.

Donald Trump himself continues to bend his line on the issue of the gigantic scale of the epidemic in the United States. The President still believes that the high incidence of diseases in his country is due to the large number of tests carried out, and the death rate from the "coronavirus" is falling. "We check more than anyone in the world. We have one of the lowest death rates in the world. We are doing a great job. We have the best and most extensive testing program in the world. If you were testing China, Russia, or any of the major countries like we are testing, you would see numbers that would surprise you," Trump said during a speech at the White House.

On the third trading day of the week in the US, only a more or less important report is planned – on industrial production for June. We believe that in the current conditions, it is the production indicator that is one of the most important, but yesterday's report on European production shows that most traders do not think so. Therefore, we do not expect a serious reaction from market participants to this report. There are no more planned events in the EU or the US today unless you count the evening economic review of the Federal Reserve "Beige Book", which rarely causes any reaction from the market.

Thus, from our point of view, technical factors continue to be in the first place, which, unfortunately, can not lead the pair out of an inarticulate upward movement, which is extremely difficult to reject. However, the upward movement continues, and cautious and small purchases of the euro currency are allowed as long as the EUR/USD pair is located above the moving average line. Moreover, both linear regression channels are also directed upwards.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of July 15 is 84 points and is characterized as "average". We expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1336 and 1.1504. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will signal a turn of the downward correction to the moving average.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1353

S2 – 1.1230

S3 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1475

R2 – 1.1597

R3 – 1.1719

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair seems to have resumed the formation of an upward trend. Thus, it is now recommended to trade for an increase with the goals of 1.1475 and 1.1504 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Sell orders are recommended to be considered no earlier than fixing the pair below the moving average line with the first goal of 1.1230.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com