Control zones for USD/JPY on 11/22/19

The upward movement remains an impulse in the medium term as long as the pair is trading above the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 108.48-108.38. The first growth target is the November high. In addition, the distance to the goal allows us to talk about a favorable ratio of risk to profit of any purchase from current prices and not lower.

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Work within the local accumulation zone suggests the need to consider the option of canceling the upward movement.

An alternative option will be developed if the closure of today's trading occurs below the level of 108.38. If this happens, then the downward movement will be the main next week. Sales from current levels are not profitable, since the probability of continuing the growth is 75%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 11/22/2019 and trading recommendation

Volatility increased, the euro locally lost its previously occupied positions, but the sideways boundaries still hold the quote when it is worth waiting for a breakout

The quotation is confidently moving within the set boundaries, without touching the control points that would lead to the opening of trading positions, although local price spikes were recorded. So yesterday the minutes of the October meeting of the European Central Bank were published, which was the final one for Mario Draghi. The former head of the ECB urged all participants in the meeting not to abandon efforts to accelerate inflation, Draghi appealed to the heads of the central banks of the EU, asking him not to criticize the actions of the ECB, but to maintain unity. In particular, the text of the minutes had a discussion about the rate of inflation, which will slow down, which delays the process of achieving the target level of the ECB.

In terms of statistics, we have applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, which instead of a decrease of 4 thousand has increased by 3 thousand. At the same time, data were published on sales in the secondary housing market in the US, for October, where there is an increase of 1, 9%, with a forecast of 1.4%.

Today, attention is on the new head of the European Central Bank, Christina Lagarde. The presentation will be extremely interesting, for the reason that she has been in office for three weeks now and the monetary policy has not yet been mentioned. Thus, market participants will carefully monitor the rhetoric of the new chapter, as this can provoke movement/jumps in the market.

In terms of statistical reporting, today we have data on German GDP, which should remain at the same level of 0.5%. At the same time, the composite index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Markit for the EU is published, where a slight change of 50.6 -> 50.9 is expected.

EU 7:30 London time. - Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde

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In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD currency pair once again proceeded to the lower boundary of our flat formation, where the control points 1.1055/1.1100 were not touched, thereby trading operations continued to be in standby mode. In fact, lateral movement along the range of 1.1080 has been going on for the fourth consecutive day, focusing more and more attention on itself, which in theory should lead to accelerated volatility and as a fact a breakout of one of the control points.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see a kind of versatile stop, which is confirmed by candles at higher time intervals. At the same time, an attempt to restore movement, on the part of sellers, continues to maintain a portion of short positions, which just do not allow the price to go above the control value.

It is likely to assume that the lateral movement will still persist in the market, where the trading tactics remain the same, work on the breakout of control values. I remind you that the longer we see a characteristic restraint, the stronger the acceleration.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- Long positions, we consider in case of price consolidation higher than 1.1100, not a puncture shadow.

- Short positions, we consider at a clear phase of the passage of the mark 1.1055, not a puncture shadow.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that due to yesterday's downward jump, the indicators have mixed up again. So the intraday prospects took the downside, and the medium-term outlook changed the upward interest to neutral. The short-term interval is currently working on a rebound from the lower boundary, signaling purchases.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 22, 2019

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GBP/JPY tried to break above short-term important resistance at 140.94 and failed. We expect minor support at 139.95 will be able to protect the downside for another attempt to break above short-term key-resistance at 140.94 for upside acceleration towards 144.58.

On the way higher towards 144.58 resistance will be found at 141.58 and 143.19.

R3: 141.58

R2: 140.94

R1: 140.54

Pivot: 140.37

S1: 140.15

S2: 139.95

S3: 139.65

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.12 with our stop placed at 139.30. If you are not long GBP yet, then buy a break above 140.94 and place you stop at 139.85

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 22, 2019

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EUR/JPY tried to break higher yesterday, but failed, which is a bit uncomfortable, but as long as minor support at 119.91 is able to protect the downside, we are convinced, that blue wave ii has completed and blue wave iii higher towards at least 122.35 now is developing. A firm break above minor resistance at 120.27 and more importantly a break above resistance at 120.69 will accelerate the expected rally higher to 122.35 and above.

Only an unexpected break below 119.91 will extend the correction in blue wave ii, but the downside should be limited to 119.72.

R3: 121.13

R2: 120.85

R1: 120.48

Pivot: 120.27

S1: 120.13

S2: 119.91

S3: 119.72

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.30. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy upon a break above 120.27 and use the same stop at 119.30

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Trading plan for EURUSD for November 22, 2019

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Technical outlook:

EURUSD took out resistance at 1.1091 yesterday by printing intraday highs at the 1.1097 levels before reversing sharply lower. The medium wave structure remains constructive for bulls with a low at 1.0990 as highlighted here. Any intraday pullbacks or retracements are likely to remain well capped ahead of 1.0990 as discussed yesterday. With the medium term outlook, there could be a corrective drop in the immediate short term or intraday outlook. As shown here, the recent boundary is between 1.0990 and 1.1097 levels respectively. A corrective drop could drag prices lower towards 1.1030 levels before the proposed rally could resume. Also note that 1.1030 is also Fibonacci 0,618 support and quite significant in terms of a potential bullish reversal. Trading point of view, please remain long against 1.0879 and wait for the 1.1030 level.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0879, target above 1.1500

Good luck!

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Control zones USDCHF 11/22/19

Today it is necessary to consider two scenarios, as the WCZ 1/4 test takes place. If a false breakout pattern of Wednesday's peak forms at the beginning of the European session, then sales will come to the fore. The first target of the decline will be the November low.

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The above model will be a logical continuation of the flat medium-term structure.

Continued growth will require the opening of a European session to be above the WCZ 1/4 zone and retention there. This will make WCZ 1/2 1.0002-0.9990 a target zone. Purchasing will come to the fore. Further upward movement will become the main one for building a trading fall for the next week.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for USD/CAD on 11/22/19

Today, the Weekly Control Zone 1/4 1.3282-1.3278 is being tested, which allows us to consider the formation of the "absorption" pattern with the goal of entering a long position. The first resistance level will be the zone of the average course of the current week. Yesterday and the day before yesterday, a test of the average course was already taking place, which led to a sharp decline in the rate.

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It is important to understand that the middle course zone will act as resistance only until the end of the week, so purchases towards the medium-term bullish momentum can already be considered today.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's trading occurs below the Weekly Control Zone 1/4. This will allow us to consider a further decline to Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.3238-1.3229. This model is less likely, however, it should not be discounted. On the other hand, a decline to the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 will allow us to receive the most favorable prices for purchase.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, November 22, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and German Final GDP q/q. The US will also publish the economic data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Flash Services PMI, and Flash Manufacturing PMI, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1116. Strong Resistance: 1.1110. Original Resistance: 1.1099. Inner Sell Area: 1.1088. Target Inner Area: 1.1062. Inner Buy Area: 1.1036. Original Support: 1.1025. Strong Support: 1.1014. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1008. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, November 22, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI and National Core CPI y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Flash Services PMI, and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.23. Resistance. 2: 109.03. Resistance. 1: 108.82. Support. 1: 108.52. Support. 2: 108.31. Support. 3: 108.11. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 22, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair reacted most strongly to the release of data on home sales in the US secondary real estate market. In the October estimate, the indicator increased from 5.36 million y/y to 5.46 million y/y. From the top of the day to a low, the pair passed 40 points, which is slightly higher than the usual volatility on similar news. Apparently, the markets have begun to lay the difference in the rate of slowdown of the world economy and the US economy, which clearly feels better than the global economy. This conclusion can also be drawn from the comments of economic agencies that forecasts a slowdown in the Chinese and American economies during the course of the trade war — estimates in favor of the American one. Thus, economic statistics again come to the fore, and today the PMI indices for the eurozone and the US for the current month are published. European Manufacturing PMI is expected to grow from 45.9 to 46.4, while US Manufacturing PMI can grow from 51.3 to 51.5. European Services PMI is projected to grow from 52.2 to 52.4, American from 50.6 to 51.2. Here we see that the US manufacturing PMI is expected to be higher in absolute numbers, and the services sector is higher in strength of growth. As a result, the euro may continue to decline.

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On the daily chart, the price worked out the embedded line of the large downward price channel and went under the balance indicator line - the market balance shifted downward. The Marlin oscillator continues to fall in the negative zone. The purpose of the movement is the MACD indicator line (1.1015).

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On a four-hour chart, the price lingered on the balance line, Marlin infiltrated the decline zone for the first time in eight days. Target level of 1.1015 on H4 also coincides with the MACD line - it will slightly fall when the price drops. Consolidation below the level will open the underlying target of 1.0985 - the Fibonacci reaction level is 138.2% on daily.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 22, 2019

GBP/USD

The volatility of the British pound was more than 70 points yesterday, it closed the day down by 18 points. In general, the technical situation for GBP SD has not changed, a triple peak is forming. The purpose of the fall is the correctional level of 23.6% at the price of 1.2767, which coincides with the low of November 8th. Below it lies the second target 1.2703, the MACD line is aiming for this level.

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On the four-hour chart, yesterday's price growth did not reach the target level of 1.2975, determined by the Fibonacci correction of 100.0% and instead fell to the level of 61.8%. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator returned to the negative trend zone. We are waiting for the price to fall further. Intermediate goals when moving towards the main goal 1.2768: 1.2872 (50.0% Fibonacci), 1.2847 (28.2%), 1.2817 (23.6%).

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GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

Price is approaching our first support where we are expecting a bounce above this level.

Entry: 1.28978

38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support

Take Profit : 1.29731

Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance

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Bounce on NZD/USD

NZDUSD to bounce above support at 0.63970

Entry: 0.63970

61.8% Fibonacci extension, Horizontal swing low

Take Profit : 0.64310

Why it's good : 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal Swing high

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DXY to bounce from 1st support, potential rally!

Entry: 97.63

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 98.69

Why it's good : 78.6% Fibonacci extension

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 22, 2019 Forecast for AUD/USD on November 22, 2019

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar continues to systematically move down. Yesterday, the decline was 14 points and this was enough to make the price lower than the support of the MACD line on a daily scale. The Marlin oscillator points to a downward trend. Now the path to the price channel line at 0.6745 is open.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is kept from rising by the resistance of the MACD indicator line. The price consolidated under the line of balance (red indicator), the Marlin oscillator is falling in the negative trend zone. The technical picture is completely lower.

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USD/JPY vs EUR/JPY vs GBP/JPY vs #USDX - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 22, 2019. APLs &

Let's see what will happen with the movement of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" USD/JPY and its cross-instruments EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, as well as the dollar index #USDX on November 22, 2019.

Minuette (H4 timeframe)

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US dollar Index

The dollar index continues to remain in the 1/2 Median Line channel (98.10 - 97.87 - 97.62) of the Minuette operational scale forks, respectively, further development of the #USDX movement from November 22, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the above levels. Look at the details of this movement on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 97.52 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will determine the further development of the movement of the dollar index to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (97.55 - 97.35 - 97.15) and the equilibrium zone (97.25 - 97.00 - 96.75) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In case of consecutive breakdown of resistance levels:

-98.10(the upper boundary of the channel is the 1/2 Median Line Minuette);

-98.20(control line UTL of the Minuette operational scale forks); upward movement of the #USDX will continue to be confirmed to the local maximum 98.45 and the lower boundary of ISL38.2 (98.55) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The markup of #USDX movement options on November 22, 2019 is shown on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

The currency of the country of the rising sun is also located in the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks, so further development of the USD / JPY movement on November 22, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the levels (108.90 - 108.63 - 108.35) of this channel. Look at the animated chart for the movement details.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (108.35) with the subsequent update of the local minimum 108.25 will determine the continuation of development of the downward movement of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (107.90 - 107.50 - 107.10) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Combined breakdown of resistance levels :

- 108.90 at the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel;

- 109.00 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel;

will determine the development of the USD/JPY movement within the 1/2 Median Line channel (109.00 - 109.15 - 109.33) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of updating the local maximum 109.50 .

The movement details of USD/JPY, depending on the direction of the breakdown of above 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel, are shown on the animated chart.

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Euro vs Japanese yen

The development of the cross-instrument movement EUR/JPY on October 22, 2019 will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (120.00 - 120.22 - 120.45) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details are shown on the animated chart.

At the same time, a combined breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (resistance level of 120.45) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks and the start line SSL (120.60) of the Minuette operational scale forks, will confirm the development of the movement of EUR/JPY in the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (120.45 - 120.95 - 121.40) with the prospect of updating the local maximum 121.45.

On the contrary, the breakdown of the lower boundary of ISL38.2 ( support level of 120.00) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks will make it urgent to develop the downward movement of this cross-instrument to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (119.45 - 119.30 - 119.10) with the prospect of reaching the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (118.75) equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the EUR/JPY movement, depending on the development of the boundaries of this equilibrium zone, are presented on the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs Japanese yen

Meanwhile, the development of the GBP / JPY cross-instrument movement on November 22, 2019 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 140.75 at the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel;
  • support level of 140.45 at the upper boundary of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks

The breakdown of the resistance level of 140.75 is the development of the GBP/JPY movement in the 1/2 Median Line channel (140.75 - 140.97 - 141.20) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of updating maximum 141.53 and reaching the SSL start line (141.85) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

However, a return below ISL61.8 Minuette (support level of 140.45) will determine the development of the movement of this cross-instrument in the equilibrium zone (140.45 - 140.10 - 139.85) of the Minuette operational scale forks.But in case that there will be a breakdown of ISL38.2 Minuette (139.85), then the downward movement of GBP/JPY can be continued to the local minimum 139.32 and the final line FSL Minuette (138.85).

The details of the GBP/JPY movement, depending on the direction of the breakdown of above equilibrium zone, are shown on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index:

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6%;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9%;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

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Developing the trading idea for oil

Good evening, dear traders! Congratulations to those who took advantage of our trading recommendation for oil.

So, the trading idea for oil was to develop the increase according to the plan which was mentioned a while ago.

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At the end of the day, we have the perfect development:

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It can be recalled that the idea was based on fundamental data on low oil reserves in the United States and thus, we should actually develop the third wave from this news. As you already know, the three-wave in trading is a fairly stable pattern, however, the fundamental three-wave is actually a terrible force for profit.

Good luck in trading and see you on new trading ideas!

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Competitor suppresses: Canadian dollar is hard to resist USD

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The Canadian currency came under strong pressure this week from its neighbor, the US dollar. Fuel added to the fire risks associated with the difficulty of concluding a "first phase" trade agreement between Washington and Beijing. The current situation strengthened the greenback and weakened the Canadian dollar, analysts said.

At first glance, nothing portended a noticeable subsidence of the Canadian currency. According to Carolyn Wilkins, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, the country's economy is "in good shape" and can even cope with the worsening situation in the global economy. The ministry believes that Canada's financial system is very stable, and the regulator has room to maneuver at a key rate of 1.75%.

However, the rainbow mood quickly gave way to a more critical understanding of reality. Wilkins further stated that increasing risks for the global economy, such as the escalation of trade confrontations, could create problems for the Canadian economy. The Bank of Canada also noted increased uncertainty around global trade, creating a tense external background.

The sharp collapse in oil prices was also a source of pressure for the loonie. Last week, WTI oil futures fell 3.2%, while the light grade was trading at $55.21 a barrel. This is the lowest figure since October 31 this year, experts said. Investors are worried that in 2020, the market may face excessive oil supply and weak demand for raw materials.

Currently, the Canadian dollar, along with the Australian and New Zealand, has come under pressure from the growing US currency. Despite rising inflationary pressures, The loonie dropped to a five-week low against the greenback. The USD/CAD pair returned to 1.3300 on Wednesday, November 20. It tested this level again on Thursday. Analysts believe that the pair is preparing to storm the October highs.

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The Canadian dollar sharply fell at the beginning of the week, but USD/CAD pair was able to slightly strengthen its position yesterday. The pair rose to the level of 1.3308 on Thursday, November 21, but could not stay at this height.

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In the future, the USD/CAD pair was in the grip of a downward trend. Passing the key level of 1.3300, it dropped to 1.3398–1.3299. Now the pair is trading in this range, trying to get out of it and rise higher.

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Analysts suggest that the USD/CAD pair may fall to a significant support level of 1.3227. In the case of this scenario, analysts recommend using long positions. Market players consider a breakout of this level of support as a signal for selling the loonie. However, experts believe that the best times will come for the Canadian dollar, and Canada's strong economy will help it rise.

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Dollar seeks to conquer the throne

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This week, the European currency managed to briefly strengthen its position and even encroach on the leadership, traditionally for the dollar. However, the greenback, having gathered his strength, again began the struggle for the throne in the EUR/USD pair. Experts are sure that the greenback will quickly restore the lost balance.

The relative balance in the EUR/USD pair was violated due to the disruption of the "first phase" deal, which was planned to be signed between Washington and Beijing. Recall that the United States refused to abolish all duties on Chinese goods, and China, in turn, does not consider itself obligated to buy agricultural products from American farmers. At the same time, US President Donald Trump threatened another increase in tariffs in case Beijing refuses to sign the agreement. According to experts, the new deal is more beneficial to America than China, so the solution to this issue has stalled.

The escalation of trade contradictions helps strengthen the US currency. The greenback has a powerful recharge thanks to a trade conflict between the two powers, analysts emphasize. The US economy is considered less vulnerable to a trade war and able to withstand colossal pressures. It was not very much influenced by such an event as the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed, although the market feared unnecessarily hawkish policy of the regulator. However, the Federal Reserve decided to dwell on the issue of further rate cuts, believing that a sufficiently strong economy of the country does not require changes in current monetary policy. No change is expected in the near future, analysts emphasize.

The European currency tried to rise amid instability, but these attempts were unsuccessful. The euro put the weak data on inflation in Germany, released on Wednesday, November 20. The report said that in October this year, the German producer price index fell by 0.2% after a slight increase of 0.1% in September. Experts consider the weakness of inflation indicators to be an important problem that the ECB is facing, which had previously lowered the negative deposit rate and launched an asset buyback program.

The current problems of the euro were in the hands of the dollar. The greenback took advantage of the situation to once again strengthen. The EUR/USD pair reached a correction level of 1.1066 on Wednesday, November 20, which gave traders hope for continued growth in quotations.

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The pair began with a minor note on Thursday morning, November 21, which quickly turned into a major note. The EUR/USD pair has slightly grown since yesterday, but continued to remain at around 1.1073.

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In the future, the EUR/USD pair actively went up. At the moment, the pair runs in the range of 1.1079–1.1080, trying to move even higher.

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According to analysts, the bulls on the EUR/USD pair have long been trading near a strong level of 1.1080 and can not overcome this barrier. In order to get things off the ground, they need to reach the psychologically important mark of 1,1100, experts said. Only having overcome this level will they be able to count on moving to 1.1200 and testing this bar.

According to experts, the US currency is confidently moving towards its goal - to maintain leadership positions and squeeze out not only the euro, but also safe haven currencies, like the yen. Currently, the greenback has managed to cope with its task, showing the market steady growth. Analysts are confident that fortune will be on the side of the dollar in the near future, which aims to win and never surrenders.

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Volume analysis and trading idea for oil

Greetings, dear traders! I present to you the volume analysis for oil.

Monday and Tuesday of the current week showed a sharp decline in prices. There was a breakdown of the daily trend line and a breakdown of the horizontal level of 55.76, which were quite visible to all market participants. In addition, the breakdown of these technical elements on the daily chart made it clear to everyone that sales are the priority.

At the same time, the price was in the purchase zone (absorption), and yesterday, the progress of purchases from this zone was shown, closing the price above the previous one. This means that Monday and Tuesday of the current week are false, and there is a high probability that the maximum of 58.17 will be broken.

The second intended target is 59.50.

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Yesterday, very weak data on oil reserves was published in the United States, which pushed oil to increase. On the other hand, while the price is in the zone of the news bars purchases, which have large volumes, the expectation for the breakdown of 58.17 is up according to the daily plan.

The nearest level for manipulation is 56.73, from which the possibility to purchase can be considered.

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Have a successful trading!

The analysis is given on the futures of American oil. Thus, it is recommended to move trading levels which are relative to the candlestick bodies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. November 21. Results of the day. Labour published a manifesto in an attempt to turn the tide of the election campaign

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 63p - 52p - 81p - 60p - 44p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 60p (average).

The British pound paired with the US dollar started to come to life today in the afternoon. So far, the movement of the GBP/USD pair is still characterized as "semi-lateral" and low volatility, nevertheless, the US dollar rose by 60 points in just a few hours today at the US trading session. There are certain hopes that the period of uncertainty for the pair will end. From our point of view, the general fundamental background does not change at all. We still believe that the pound can only move in one direction now - down. In recent weeks, the bulls have been able to restrain the bearish outbursts for the pair's new sales thanks to optimism regarding the victory of Conservatives in the Parliament elections. However, above the level of 1.3000, the bulls failed to consolidate their success, which means that there are a sufficient number of doubts among market participants about the unequivocal victory of the Conservatives.

There are several factors that make it doubtful that the election will end with the necessary Conservative victory.The first, probably the most important, is historical. In an attempt to consolidate their political influence, which would allow Brexit to be realized, Theresa May arranged for re-election to Parliament. However, then the Conservatives not only failed to increase their presence in Parliament, they only worsened it. Who said that now the election results will be radically opposite? Many experts and the electorate note the strength of Boris Johnson as a politician. Many support him as prime minister. However, this does not mean that the Conservative Party will collect 50% of the vote. The second factor is coalition. If in total the Conservatives will collect more seats in the Parliament, but the Labour Party will cooperate with other opposition forces, then Brexit will again be blocked. Then the question will be posed differently: with whom can Conservatives cooperate and how many votes will they have in Parliament in this case? From our point of view, all these calculations are fortune-telling on coffee grounds. You need to wait for the elections, wait for the results, then draw conclusions.

Meanwhile, the Labour party, feeling that the Conservatives were ahead of them in all ratings, unveiled a manifesto detailing the party's program. Among the main promises of Corbyn - the construction of social housing, a new deal on Brexit, a referendum at which residents of the UK will be asked to choose between a deal and the cancellation of Brexit. The Labour leader also promises to make education at universities in the UK free. "This is a manifesto of hope. A manifesto that will bring real change," Corbyn said. Also, the Labour leader once again pricked Johnson, saying that he was going to steal the British health care system and sell it to American companies. The Labour leader did not forget about the main supporters of the Conservatives - bankers and billionaires, saying that taxes for the rich will be raised, as well as the level of minimum wages in the country. All of these promises, according to Corbyn should help Labour collect more votes.

Well, the pound, despite a small uptick in activity today, generally remains in an incomprehensible movement. It was not possible to escape above the level of 1.3000 even from the third attempt, a new approach to the downward trend? From a fundamental point of view, this is a reasonable option for the development of events, given the failed reports from the UK last week, which were not worked out by market participants.

Trading recommendations:

GBP/USD continues to adjust. Thus, traders are advised to wait until the situation is cleared up, since there is no possibility to trade for an increase due to the location of the price below the Kijun-sen line. Short positions are formally relevant now, but in small lots, since there is no dead cross at the moment, and quotes are located above the Ichimoku cloud.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. November 21. Results of the day. The "first phase" of the trade agreement between China and the United States is

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 39p - 42p - 40p - 21p - 28p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 34p (low).

The EUR/USD currency pair was still bored and uninteresting on the penultimate trading day of the week. This is due to the same lack of any macroeconomic reports in the United States and the European Union. If you look at the pair's movement chart, you get the impression that today there was quite a frisky movement, but in fact the pair's volatility remains ultra-low and today is no exception. Yesterday's publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's monetary committee did not cause any reaction today, either at the European trading session or at the US one. The US currency slightly strengthened in the second half of the day, but it does not mean anything at all and does not specify the current picture for the euro/dollar pair. The euro bulls managed to update the highs of two days ago with grief in half, but, as usual, they did not have enough strength. At the moment, quotes have again returned to the Kijun-sen critical line.

Meanwhile, headlines regarding the topic of the trade conflict between the US and China do not disappear from the tabloids. We have already written in recent days that the main snag at the moment is the overstated requirements of both parties. China is demanding the abolition of almost all duties, and the United States is demanding that China buy agricultural products from American farmers by no less than $50 billion a year, and also solve the main problems related to intellectual property. In addition, today it became known that the US Senate is considering a bill that provides support for activists in Hong Kong who are protesting against the new policy of China regarding the extradition of Hong Kong residents. At the moment, Hong Kong has a special autonomy status and some Chinese laws do not apply to it. China decided to pass an appropriate law allowing it to control Hong Kong more, and so mass protests began and have not stopped for several months. The US Senate decided to enact the Hong Kong Human Rights Act to curb violence against protesters. If China does not stop the violence, the United States will impose new economic sanctions. That is, if Hong Kong's autonomy continues, then a special trade status and trade preferences remain, if not, a new round of economic pressure on China will begin. It is clear that the Chinese government does not like such interference in internal problems by America and the country has already made an official statement warning the White House that any serious adoption of laws on Hong Kong will be followed by a serious response. As you can see, in this situation we are not talking about the movement of the parties towards each other.

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump said: "I do not think that they (negotiations) are moving to the level that I want." Earlier, the odious US leader also said that it was China that should make concessions and sign the agreement that is beneficial to the United States. Based on the fact that the parties are not ready to meet each other's requirements, the signing of the agreement can be postponed to 2020. And, from our point of view, it is not worth expecting a deal before 2020. Now it is already a matter of preventing the parties from introducing new portions of duties and economic sanctions. If the US Senate approves the Hong Kong Act, Beijing is unlikely to stand aside and will certainly take countermeasures. This means a new round of escalation of the trade conflict, which this time can no longer be identified as a trade. All this potentially means new problems for the global economy, as well as for the economies of the US and China. And in terms of the euro/dollar currency pair, this means a possible new slowdown in economic indicators and the growth of the US economy, but also of the European Union, whose economy is closely connected with both the Chinese and the American. It is unlikely, of course, that this will happen in the near future, but in the future it is quite possible to expect such a scenario.

So far, the parties are continuing a verbal skirmish. Chinese Foreign Minister Geng Shuang said: "We urge the United States to sort out the situation and stop its illegal activities before it is too late, not allowing this act to become law and immediately stop interfering in Hong Kong's affairs and China's internal affairs." So now everything is Donald Trump, who can either sign the law or veto it. However, according to experts, even a veto may not save the situation if more than two-thirds of the Senate supports the bill.

Thus, traders can only follow the development of events and hope that the trade conflict does not escalate even more. The currency pair has not yet responded to news on this topic, but in the future, everything may change. And in the case of the introduction of new sanctions or the abolition of trade preferences to Hong Kong, this will again be reflected in the slowdown in the global economy. At the moment, the euro/dollar is again adjusted. A price rebound from the Kijun-sen critical line could trigger a new round of upward movement. But given the low volatility, the trading pair is now extremely uncomfortable anyway.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started to correct again. Thus, it is now recommended to wait until the completion of the current correction, and then consider the pair's purchases, but only in small lots, since the current movement is still identified as corrective. We recommend that you wait until the level of 1.1101 is overcome for euro purchases. It is recommended to return to the pair's sales no earlier than consolidating the euro/dollar pair below the critical Kijun-sen line with the target level of 1.1033, but also with very small lots.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBPUSD atmosphere: the pound only reacts to political battles in Britain

While the main dollar pairs are closely monitoring the news flow regarding the prospects for US-Chinese relations, the pound-dollar pair continues to trade in its "coordinate system", responding to local fundamental factors. The election campaign in the UK is in full swing, so all the news related to the possible outcome of the plebiscite has a strong influence on the dynamics of GBP/USD All other fundamental factors have traditionally been indirect and secondary.

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For example, the day before yesterday, a televised debate took place between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. Despite the nominal victory of the current prime minister, the pound was under pressure as it fell against the dollar by the middle of the 28th figure. Traders expected more from Johnson: more convincing rhetoric, more decisive theses and a more impressive distinction from the main competitor. But according to a YouGov poll, he did not impress the British, defeating Corbyn by a margin of only 2 percentage points. 51% of the viewers voted for Johnson while 49% for the Labour Party. And although this survey cannot be projected onto the ranking positions of Conservatives and Labour (since only one and a half thousand citizens took part in the survey), traders were concerned about such an uncertain result.

Neither Johnson nor Corbyn announced any fundamentally fresh ideas. The prime minister insisted that his deal with Brussels is the best option for the deal, while his opponent expressed a radically different opinion - according to Corbyn, Johnson only worsened Britain's position in the negotiations, and the deal he proposed was even worse than Theresa May's Chequers Plan. The head of the British government insisted that Brexit should take place before January 31 on the basis of his deal, while the opposition leader urged him to put the document to a referendum. When Johnson asked his opponent if he would support the deal in this case or would actually call for a "hard Brexit," Corbin did not give a clear answer. After that, the prime minister criticized him for populism and the lack of any constructiveness. Nevertheless, according to the respondents, Corbyn was more convincing in other areas, for example, 54% felt that he coped well with the topic of health.

Despite the nominal victory, the results of the debate were not in favor of the British prime minister: according to the latest YouGov polls, the gap between Conservatives and Labour is narrowing: Tories support at 42% (three points less than last Saturday), Labor at 30% (an increase of two points). In addition, other participants in the election race also recalled themselves: the leaders of the Liberal Democratic and Scottish National Parties expressed their indignation that only Johnson and Corbyn (who in one way or another advocate Brexit) were invited to the debate, while the opinion of millions of British who want stay in the European Union was ignored.

Such a fundamental background forced GBP/USD traders to shift to the middle of the 28th figure - the pair showed a sluggish, but still a downward movement at the beginning of the week. True, the bears could not fall below 1.2860. In general, downward impulses must now be treated with particular caution: the pound is keenly reacting to negative political news, but is recovering just as quickly on any positive.

For example, today the results of the Savanta ComRes study, according to which the Labour Party continues to lose electoral points, was announced today, as the positions of the Conservatives look more confident. Now the Tories are ahead of the opposition by 12 percentage points - this is the highest gap since the last election held in 2017.

In addition, according to surveys by British newspaper The Telegraph, many Labour supporters revised their political views in favor of Conservatives. Almost 20% of those who have previously voted for Corbyn are now ready to cast their votes to Johnson. Most of them do not believe in his ability to withdraw the country from the European Union. But Johnson, according to "ex-Labour supporters", will fulfill this mission without any hesitation.

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Such results are explained by the fact that many Britons are tired of years of uncertainty, while Corbyn can significantly prolong this period. In addition, Johnson does not insist on a hard Brexit, but on a civilized one, while the leader of the Labour Party changed his position on this issue several times: at first he wanted to hold a second referendum on Brexit, then he abandoned this idea, and now he is lobbying the referendum again - but with regard to the conditions for withdrawal from the EU (the Brexit issue itself is no longer in dispute with them). Conservatives continue to gain momentum amid such inconsistency of the Labour Party, thereby supporting the British currency.

I repeat - the GBP/USD prices should be taken with extreme caution to the downward "arches". Let me remind you that according to Johnson, each candidate from the Conservative Party signed a written pledge that, if elected, he would vote for the draft deal with Brussels proposed by the prime minister. Therefore, the possible victory of the Conservatives is now quite reasonably associated with the resolution of the long-term "divorce proceedings". If the gap between the Conservatives and the Labour Party continues to increase, the pound paired with the dollar will enjoy a kind of immunity from the influence of other fundamental factors (including American ones). Another poll from YouGov (if it will be in favor of the Tories) will help the GBP/USD bulls again approach the 30th figure.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com