GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 19, 2014

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Overview:


The GBP/USD pair has been moving downward respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated. Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.6450, 1.6170, and 1.5940 where the upper limit of the channel came to meet the pair.


The price zone of 1.5890-1.5870 constituted a transient daily support that paused the bearish movement for a few days. However, bears quickly managed to push lower.


Failure of the market to defend the price zone of 1.5890-1.5900 allowed bears to push towards the support level located around 1.5600.


The GBP/USD pair looked quite oversold after such long bearish swing off 1.6500.


Bullish correction was anticipated around 1.5600 as it is a prominent WEEKLY support corresponding to multiple previous tops established back in May and June 2013. That is why the market meets prominent bullish rejection each time bears push below 1.5600 - 1.5580


Bullish fixation above the price level of 1.5760 (bullish breakout of the daily bearish channel) exposes the price levels of 1.5880 and 1.5950 for retesting.


However, less probably, a break below the recent bottoms established around 1.5580-1.5540 renders the current consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with projected target at 1.5310 like what happened back in October.


Trade Recommendation:


Wait for bullish fixation above 1.5760 for a LONG entry with SL as daily closure below entry levels. TP should be located at 1.5800 and 1.5880.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 19, 2014

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Overview:


Three months ago, the price levels around 1.0620 (the lower limit of the depicted chart) initiated the current strong uptrend within the depicted daily channel. Successive higher highs and lows are being established within the channel's limits.


As anticipated, the bullish breakout above 1.1440 allowed bulls to push towards 1.1650 where the upper limit of the bullish channel is located as well as 61.8% Fibonacci level of a previous prominent bearish swing.


During the past few weeks, the USD/CAD pair established a temporary consolidation zone between 1.1430-1.1330 and recently around 1.1480, the bullish breakout above which allowed bulls to reach new highs around 1.1540 and 1.1670 which got visited this week.


The price zone of 1.1430-1.1460 remains the nearest SUPPORT zone for the current prices. It corresponds with the lower limit of the daily channel as well as the previous high that goes back to November.


Persistence above this zone signaled the bullish tendency towards 1.1660-1.1690 (significant RESISTANCE zone).


The price level of 1.1650 (which was our bullish final target) roughly corresponded with the upper limit of the bullish channel as well as 61.8% Fibonacci level. Long positions should have been left already.


Trading recommendations:


Risky traders should look for SHORT positions around price levels of 1.1650. SL should be located above 1.1700.


Conservative traders should be looking for a pull-back towards 1.1440 for a LONG position. SL should be set as daily closure below 1.1400.


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Gold analysis for December 19, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,195.00. We are waiting for a larger activity on the market and stronger price action. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.195.00 (currently on the test). According to the 1H time frame, we can observe weak supply on the market, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities near the lows. Any larger demand in a high volume may confirm further bullish phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,208.77


R2: 1,214.77


R3: 1,224.47


Support levels:


S1: 1,189.37


S2: 1,183.37


S3: 1,173.67


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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EUR/NZD analysis for December 19, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downward. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5744 in a volume below the average. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential resistance level. Our Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.6160 was held successfully, and it made price start with an downward movement. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels and got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5800 (already broken) and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.5590. We also got support level around the price of 1.5670 (swing low like support). Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since we may see a lower price.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5990


R2: 1.6047


R3: 1.6139


Support levels:


S1: 1.5806


S2: 1.5749


S3: 1.5657


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we have a strong supply in the background.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 19, 2014

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Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. USD/JPY is supported by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 13.53% to 16.81, S&P 500 closed up 2.4% at 2,061.23 overnight) as investors remained reassured by the Federal Reserve's pledge on Wednesday to be "patient" on raising interest rates, while data out of Germany and the U.K. were upbeat. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.207% versus 2.135% on late Wednesday), positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 89.21 versus 89.07 on early Thursday), fewer than expected 289,000 U.S. jobless claims for a week ended on December 13 (versus forecast 295,000), demand from Japan's importers and the Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy. But USD sentiment is dented by the drop in Markit U.S. services PMI (flash reading for December) to 53.6 from 56.2 in November, fall in the U.S. Philadelphia Fed business index to 24.5 in December from November's 40.8. USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japanese export sales and positions adjustment before the weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is in bullish Mode.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.60 and the second target at 120.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 117.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 117. The pivot point is at 118.40.


Resistance levels:

119.60

120.15

120.45



Support levels:
117.75

117

116.65


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 19, 2014

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a two-year high 0.9848 on Thursday. CHF sentiment was hurt after the Swiss National Bank said on Thursday it would charge a negative interest rate of 0.25% on deposits from January 22 to cool the strength of the Swiss franc. USD/CHF is also supported by positive dollar sentiment and franc sales on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment before the weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is in bullish mode, the MACD is turning bullish; five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9840 and the second target at 0.9890. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9715. A break of this target would push the pair further downward, and one may expect the second target at 0.9660. The pivot point is at 0.9055.


Resistance levels:

0.9840

0.9890

0.9915


Support levels:

0.9715

0.9660

0.9605


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 19, 2014

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in higher range.It is supported by the kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment and the kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 89.21 versus 89.07 on early Thursday) on fewer than expected 289,000 U.S. jobless claims for a week ended on December 13 (versus forecast 295,000).


Technical Comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD and stochastics are neutral.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7810 and the second target at 0.7835. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 0.7670. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.7625. The pivot point is at 0.7735.


Resistance levels:

0.7810

0.7835

0.7870



Support levels:


0.7670

0.7625

0.7585


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 19, 2014

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate. It is supported by the positive risk sentiment and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains upside are limited by the Japanese export sales, soft EUR/USD undertone and positions adjustment before weekend. GBP sentiment is boosted by stronger than expected 1.6% on month and 6.4% on year increase in the U.K. November retail sales (versus forecast +0.4% on month, +4.5% on year).


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining but stochastics turning bullish at oversold levels, inside day range pattern was completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 187.70 and the second target at 188.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short posisitions are recommended with the first target at 184.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 183. The pivot point is at 185.20.


Resistance levels:

187.70

188.45

189.35


Support levels:

184.35

183

182.5


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 19, 2014

General overview for 19/12/2014 09:30 CET


The count has been changed a little and now it is indicating a more complex corrective cycle WXY brown in wave 4 purple, where wave Y brown has not been completed yet. The degree of the waves has been raised one step higher and this is why it is taking so long for the market to complete the corrective cycle this time of the year. The level of 1.1670 is acting as a strong intraday resistance level. Despite the fact it has been tested three times, the market still can not break through it. Nevertheless, the most important support is the intraday support at the level of 1.1559 and the dynamic support provided by the golden trend line. In case of any downside breakout, the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.1533 should provide a strong level to bounce from. Please notice that the bias is still bullish and at least one more impulsive wave to the upside should be made sooner or later.


Support/Resistance:


1.1727 - WR2


1.1670 - Intraday Resistance


1.1666 - WR1


1.1559 - Intraday Support


1.1531 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Trading inside of a complex corrective cycle is rather hard thing to do and traders should refrain from trading this pair until a clear breakout is made. In case of upward breakout , daytraders might consider opening buy stop orders from the level of 1.1672 with tight SL (15-20 pips) and TP at the level of 1.1727.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 19 - 2014

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Technical summary:


This sideways correction/consolidation jas just become even more complex than it already where. The failure to hold the break above the resistance line was really disappointing, but the leading expanding diagonal could still be developing as long as support at 1.5705 and more importantly as long as support at 1.5643 protects the downside. If however support at 1.5643 is broken too, then a new decline towards 148.13 should be expected.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 158.40 was hit for a loss and we will stay neutral for now.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 19, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair is trading sideways in a cone format since couple of sessions. The range has been 145.00 on the lower side and 146.50/147.00 levels on the higher side. The pair could still drift lower towards the outer line, which is passing through 144.50 levels now, before turning bullish again. Also note that fibonacci 0.382 support is passing through 144.00 levels, hence higher probability remains for the pair to pick up from there. Immediate support is seen at 143.50, followed by 142.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 148.20/30, followed by 149.80 respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now, looking to go long at lower.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 19, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has raised through the trend line resistance above 1.5350 levels yesterday as seen here. It is recommended to book partial profits on long positions taken earlier and move risk to break even levels. A pullback remains possible and it should be considered as further opportunity to initiate long positions. Immediate support is seen at 1.5150 levels, followed by 1.5000, 1.4950 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5450/75 and 1.5550 respectively. Bulls are in control now and shall remain till prices remain above 1.4950 levels for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long and book partial profits. Stop at break even levels. The target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for December 19, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver looks to have formed the right shoulder of a potential inverted head and shoulder reversal as discussed earlier, around the $15.50/60 mark. The metal should be preparing to rally towards $17.40/50 levels at least. As seen here, the right shoulder has formed around the fibonacci support of 0.618, of the rally from $14.50 to $17.30. Immediate support is at $15.50 (interim), followed by $14.50 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.30, followed by $17.50, $17.80/18.00 and higher respectively. Bulls are expected to remain in control till prices stay above $14.50.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop below $14.50, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 19, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Press Conference, All Industries Activity m/m, and Monetary Policy Statement. However, the US will not release any economic data today. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Resistance. 3: 119.54.


Resistance. 2: 119.31.


Resistance. 1: 119.08.


Support. 1: 118.79.


Support. 2: 118.56.


Support. 3: 118.32.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of Gold for December 19, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold seems to have bottomed out at $1,183.00 for now and preparing to rally towards $1,255.00 at least. A down side probability towards $1,170.00 (fibonacci 0.618 support) still cannot be ruled out though. It is recommended to remain long from yesterday, risk remains below $1,180.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,183.00 (interim), followed by $1,170.00, $1,140.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,235.00, followed by $1,255.00 and higher up respectively. Bulls are to remain under control till prices stay above $1,140.00 levels.


Trading recommendations:


Remain ling, stop below $1,180.00, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 19, 2014

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as EU Economic Summit, Current Account, German PPI m/m, and GfK German Consumer Climate. However, the US will not release any economic data today. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during the day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.2336.


Strong Resistance:1.2329.


Original Resistance: 1.2317.


Inner Sell Area: 1.2305.


Target Inner Area: 1.2276.


Inner Buy Area: 1.2247.


Original Support: 1.2235.


Strong Support: 1.2223.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.2216.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for December 19, 2014

On the H4 chart, the USDX is trying to form a bullish pattern above the support level of 89.05. However, the USDX could conduct a retracement to that level, as this instrument has been quite exhausted due to its bullish momentum in the last hours. It can be proved by the fact that the USDX has formed a fractal next to the resistance level of 89.55.


H4chart's resistance levels: 89.55 / 91.00


H4chart's support levels: 89.05 / 88.65


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The USDX finds resistance at the 89.25 level, because during yesterday's session, this instrument was forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 88.99. For now, the USDX still has strength to climb to the resistance level of 89.51, as the bullish movement has not been exhausted yet. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 89.25 / 89.51


H1 chart's support levels: 88.99 / 88.71


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 89.25, take profit is at 89.51, and stop loss is at 89.00.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 19, 2014

The GBP/USD pair has managed to rebound above the bearish trend line at the 1.5600 level, because this pair is trying to reach the resistance level of 1.5698. This approach is important, since the GBP/USD pair could go up to where the 200-day moving average is located on the H4 chart. If this pair hits a breakout in that area, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.5811.


H4chart's resistance levels: 1.5698 / 1.5811


H4chart's support levels: 1.5589 / 1.5541


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On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair finds dynamic resistance in the 200 SMA. So, this pair is likely to fall to the support level of 1.5632. If the GBP/USD pair manages to make a bearish consolidation below this area, the next target would be the 1.5590 level in the short term. However, the possibility that this pair will breaks the level of 1.5685 is not excluded.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5686 / 1.5739


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5632 / 1.5590


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5632, take profit is at 1.5590, and stop loss is at 1.5672.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 19, 2014

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Overview :



  • As it is known, sellers are asking for a higher price, but buyers are bidding at a lower price. Therefore, the first key level will set at the level of 1.2245 and the second key level will set at the 1.2319 level on December 19, 2014. Equally important, the price of EUR/USD pair has still been moving between 1.2320 and 1.2240. Additionally, it should be noted that the range was about 80 pips (1.2320 - 1.2240) today. Furthermore, the trend was very clear and was indicating a downtrend from the level of 1.2320. Accordingly, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 1.2320 in H1 chart. As a result, sell at the price of 1.2320 with the first target at 1.2263, it might resume to 1.2246 in order to test the double bottom. On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.2322 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels), for this reason, it will be beneficial to set it at the price of 1.2345.


Intraday technical levels :


Date:19/12/2014


Pair:EUR/USD



  • R3: 1.2422

  • R2: 1.2386

  • R1: 1.2336

  • PP: 1.2300

  • S1: 1.2250

  • S2: 1.2214

  • S3: 1.2164


Note :



  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and it may reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 19, 2014

EUR/USD: This pair has continued to trend downwards – just in the opposite bias of the USD/CHF movement. From the resistance line at 1.2550, the price dropped sharply and closed below the resistance level at 1.2300. The price still has a lot of room to go further south and eventually, the support line at 1.2250 could be tested.


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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF price rose from around the support level at 0.9550, and is trended upwards significantly. The price nearly touched the resistance level at 0.9850. This is a move of close to 300 pips, and it has led to a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern. With further strength in the Greenback, the price may go above the resistance level at 0.9850.


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GBP/USD: It is not yet logical to seek long trades on the Cable, since the current rally may be seen as another opportunity to open short trades. The outlook on the market is bearish: the price may challenge the accumulation territory at 1.5550 (which has been tested already). While one may target that accumulation territory in the near-term, it would require extraordinary weakness in the market for the accumulation territory to be breached to the downside.


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USD/JPY: This market has the potential to go further upwards. The price may go above the supply level at 119.50 and may target another supply level at 120.00 after that.


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EUR/JPY: As a result of the weakness in the EUR, this currency trading instrument may still go downwards. The bias is bearish: the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 has gone below the level 50. In the face of the extant Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, the price may go further downwards.


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#USDX Technical analysis for December 19, 2014

The Dollar index is making a short-term pullback as expected by our previous post. However, a trend remains bullish in all time frames. The longer-term target since early October is the 91 level as this is the bullish flag break out target.


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Nothing new to add to this short-term chart. A trend remains bullish in the 4-hour chart as prices make higher highs and higher lows, the index is above the ichimoku cloud and if we also take into account yesterday's big upward spike, it is usual to see a short-term pause in the up trend.


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The weekly chart of the Dollar index remains fully bullish with 91 as the closest target according to the bullish flag break out pattern. Weekly support is found at 87.50 and weekly resistance at 89.50. I expect to see this upward move that started off this weeks lows to continue higher towards 91 and why not above it. I remain bullish as long as this weeks lows are not broken.


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Gold Technical analysis for December 19, 2014

Another trading day where Gold price made no real upward or downward move. Gold price remains inside the sideways triangle pattern and a trend remains neutral. As long as Gold price is between $1,220 and $1,180 I prefer to remain neutral.


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Blue line = support


Red line = resistance


The downward sloping trend line is the current resistance at $1,220-15 area. Support is seen by the blue horizontal line at $1,184-80 area. Gold price remains inside this trading range still today. Price is also trying to exit the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart as shown above and this could be a sign of short-term weakness. This sign is canceled if price manages to break above $1,215.


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The weekly chart also confirms that a short-term trend is neutral as price is trapped between the kijun-sen and the tenkan-sen indicators. A longer-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below the Ichimoku cloud as shown above. The weekly support is at $1,193 and the weekly resistance is at $1,240.


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Daily analysis of silver for December 18, 2014

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Overview


From today's 4H chart we see that the metal is still trading between the support level of 15.70 and below the resistance level of 16.00. Silver has failed to break the resistance level yesterday and bounced from it. It took a slightly downward move and currently is approaching the support level of 15.70 again. Presently, we suggest waiting for closing above the resistance level of 16.00 in case it bounces from the support level to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target of few pips below the resistance level of 16.50. After breaking this resistance level, silver would open the way towards the resistance level of 16.75, which means more bullish signals.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (16.75), R2 (16.50), R1 (16.00), S1 (15.70), S2 (15.40), S3 (15.00).


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for December 18, 2014

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Overview


As it was expected last week, more bullish signals would be expected in case of closing above the resistance level of 185.00. Today, as it is shown in the H4 chart, the pair has already managed to break the resistance level and close 4H above. Currently, the pair is approaching the resistance level of 186.70 trying to break it through to continue the upward move. More bullish signals would be expected in case of closing 4H above this resistance level with the first target few pips below the resistance level of 187.70, but closing below this Resistance level might cancel the upward trend move.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (188.50), R2 (187.70), R1 (186.70), S1 (185.80), S2 (185.00), S3(184.40)


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