Analysis of Gold for May 19, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,246.00. According to the 30M time frame, there is a fake breakout of yesterday's low, which is a sign that sellers lost downward pressure. There is also a hidden bullish divergence on the ROC oscilator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $1,264.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,261.90

R2: $1,266.45

R3: $1,273.80

Support levels:

S1: $1,247.00

S2: $1,242.00

S3: $1,235.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for May 19, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwrads. The price tested the level of 1.3027. I found that price respected a downward diagonal of the expanding wedge. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find a potential upward target. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.3095. Anyway, the first upward target is set at the price of 1.3047 (yesterday's high).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3025

R2: 1.3060

R3: 1.3125

Support levels:

S1: 1.2900

S2: 1.2860

S3: 1.2800

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 19, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair went upwards this week, gaining 240 pips and moving briefly above the resistance level at 1.1150, before the shallow southward correction that is currently being witnessed. The bullish outlook on the market remain intact – the EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Price is supposed to go more upwards.

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USD/CHF: There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USD/CHF 4-hour chart. Price has dropped 220 pips this week, and it has dropped 290 pips since last Friday. A further bearish movement is possible next week (because price may only consolidate for the rest of today), which would take price towards the support levels at 0.9750 and 0.9700.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument is neutral in the medium term and bullish in the short term. The distribution territories at 1.3000 could be tested, and a movement above it could result in a bullish bias on the market. Since the EUR/USD is currently bullish, and it is positively correlated with GBP/USD.GBP/USD is expected to be pulled upwards very soon. The long-term bias is bullish.

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USD/JPY: There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart. Price has gone down seriously this week, and the demand levels at 111.00, 110.50, and 111.00 would be tested soon. The demand levels at 111.00 and 110.50 have been tested earlier prior to the current shallow rally.

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EUR/JPY: There is essentially a bearish signal on the EUR/JPY cross. The bearish movement that happened this week has resulted in short-term bearishness on the chart. A further bearish movement is possible, which could take price towards the demand zones at 123.00 and 122.50 today or next week.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for May 19, 2017

NZD/USD is currently going through a volatile corrective structure. Today, New Zealand released Visitor Arrivals report which showed an increased figure at 3.5% from 1.9% previously. Credit Card Spending declined to 6.4% which previously was at 7.2%. On the back of mixed data and lack of economic data from the US, today the pair is currently trading in the range of 0.6840 to 0.6940. Since yesterday, USD has been gaining ground against NZD. So any positive news on USD side will help USD to advance more against NZD.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently in a corrective structure inside a range between 0.6840 and 0.6940. As the dynamic level of 20 EMA is holding the price as resistance and overall trend is bearish, we expect a bearish move in the coming days. Unless the range is breached upward or downward with a daily close, we should refrain from taking a decision about a further price movement in this pair. A daily close below 0.6840 will open the pathway for a downward target towards 0.6660 support level. Alternatively, a daily close above 0.6940 will open the pathway for upward move towards 0.7100 resistance level.

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Daily Video Technical Analysis | USD/JPY | 18th May 2017

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Daily Video Technical Analysis | USD/JPY | 18th May 2017

Global macro analysis for 19/05/2017

Global macro analysis for 19/05/2017:

Very good sales data from the United Kingdom has surprised market participants. After the last month drop of -1.4%, the Retails Sales With Auto Fuel increased 2.3% for April compared with expectations of an increase of around 1.2%. On a yearly basis, the sales jumped from 2.0% to 4.0%. The main reason behind the better than expected data was a positive impact on sales from the late Easter this year and good weather conditions. Despite this good set of data, it is worth to remember, that the recent decrease in real wages for the first time might limit the consumer spending soon. The Bank of England has factored this potential decrease into its policy expectations already, but for now, the immediate confidence is surging.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the anticipated level of 1.3000 with a high at the level of 1.3047. The current market conditions are overbought and there is a clear bearish divergence formed between the price and the momentum oscillator. To confirm the bearish reversal, the market must impulsively break out below the golden trend line support around the level of 1.2881 and head towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2828.

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Global macro analysis for 19/05/2017

Global macro analysis for 19/05/2017:

Another set of the good news from the US job market has hit the newswires. US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 232k in the week ending May 13th from 236k previously while consensus forecasts were for a small increase to around 240k for the week. The Continuing Claims declined as well to the level of 1,898k for the week ending May 6th from a revised 1,920k the previous week and this was the lowest reading since November 1988. The decline in Continuing Claims is the important evidence that the US labour market is continuing to strengthen as discouraged workers are able to re-enter the job market again. Moreover, this strong data will strengthen the FED view regarding the interest rate increase in the nearest future.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market had bounced from the technical support at the level of 1.1079 and now is heading higher towards the next technical resistance at the level of 1.1171. Nevertheless, the market conditions are still overbought and the momentum is not strong so far. This is why the move upward might get capped at the resistance and the price will get back to the trading range. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.1022 will change its bias from bullish to bearish.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 19, 2017

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Since April 2016, the USD/CAD pair has been trending upward within the depicted ascending channel.

In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recently established top).

During the bearish pullback, the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support to the pair.

This allowed a further bearish movement toward the price level of 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where a valid BUY entry was offered in February 2017.

A few weeks ago, the bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) enhanced a further advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3580.

As long as, the USD/CAD pair maintains bullish trading above 1.3580 (confluence of prominent tops). Expected bullish target would be located around 1.3950 and 1.4030 (the upper side of the depicted channel and FE 100%).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for May 19, 2017

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In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (the key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed a further advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (a sell zone) where the bearish price action was expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 allowed a further decline toward 0.7100 then 0.6960 which failed to provide enough support for the pair.

That is why a further fall was expected toward 0.6860 (the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone) where a bullish position was suggested in previous articles.

Recently, a bullish breakout was achieved above the depicted key level (0.6960). However, the pair failed to keep enough bullish momentum above 0.7050.

That's why, the NZD/USD pair became trapped within the depicted consolidation range (0.6860-0.6960) once again.

Importantly, the depicted bullish 1-2-3 pattern remains valid as long as the bullish fixation above 0.6900-0.6850 is maintained on a daily basis.

Any daily candlestick closure below 0.6850 invalidates the bullish scenario for the current time clearing the way initially towards 0.6770.

On the other hand, a bullish breakout above 0.6960 is needed to allow a further bullish movement. The expected projection target for the pattern is located around 0.7250.

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Trading plan for 19/05/2017

Trading plan for 19/05/2017:

Financial markets were calm overnight, which can be attributed to the lack of events this week. After the US stock markets managed to bounce, the overnight session in Asia was calm as well. Shanghai Composite lost 0.1%, but Nikkei was up 0.3%. The currency market moves in flat drifts, only Crude Oil gains slightly.

On Friday 19th of May, the event calendar is light in important economic releases, but market participants will pay attention to Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales from Canada. Commodity traders will wait for Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count later in the day.

USD/CAD analysis for 19/05/2017:

The Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales data from Canada are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT. Global investors expect the CPI to increase from 0.2% to 0.5% on a monthly basis and from 1.6% to 1.7% on a yearly basis. The Retail Sales are also expected to increase after a 0.6% drop last month and the expected reading is 0.4%. The bigger advance in CPI means that more room is left for Bank of Canada to keep the low-interest rate policy for a longer period of time. The current BoC inflation projections are at the level of 2.0% or above, so there is still some time to wait for more data while maintaining the wait-and-see approach.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market is still trading inside of a tight horizontal zone between the levels of 1.3575 - 1.3668, but the market conditions are oversold, so there is still a chance for another test of the resistance. The momentum is rather flat, but the price is still trading above the 200-period moving average. In case of a further downside breakout, the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.3529 at the 61%Fibo at the level of 1.3508.

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Market snapshot: Crude Oil erases the losses

Crude Oil is trading just below the important technical resistance at the level of $49.93. Any breakout above this level will lead to the test of the next technical resistance at the level of $50.23. This is the line in the sand for bears, as any violation of this level will indicate the bullish camp is in control over this market. The next target for them would be at the level of $51.61.

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Market snapshot: Gold rejected at technical resistance

The prices of Gold are now testing the 38%Fibo at the level of $1,245 after being rejected at the technical resistance at the level of $1,264. The immediate resistance is seen at the level of $1,253 and due to the weak upside momentum, the bias remains to the downside until the market will hit the oversold levels again.

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Market snapshot: SPY is bouncing after sell-off

The prices of SPY (SP500 ETF) are now bouncing higher after the sell-off to the level of 235.39. The price is trading in a range between the levels of 237.71 and 235.39 in oversold market conditions. More horizontal price action is expected in this market unless the political situation in the US gets worse.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for May 19, 2017

Recently, AUD/JPY has been in a volatile corrective structure. Yesterday, despite positive reports from Australia AUD could not dominate JPY. Australia released Employment Change report which showed an increase of 37.4k, much better than the forecast for moderate 4.5k growth. Besides, Unemployment Rate declined to 5.7% from 5.9%, analysts projected a flat reading. On the other hand, Japan had positive Prelim GDP at 0.5% which was expected to be at 0.4% and negative Prelim GDP Price Index at -0.8% which was expected to be at -0.7%. Amid mixed economic reports from Japan, JPY dominated AUD despite upbeat economic reports yesterday. This resulted in an indecision daily candle, but in the coming days AUD is expected to climb up higher against JPY.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently under the important level of 82.90 while filling up the French Election GAP yesterday. At present, a bullish move is expected in this pair if the price closes above 82.90 with a daily close. We will target 84.50 as the first target and 86.10 as the second target for the bullish trade. The bais will keep the bullish bias until the price takes out 81.50 with a bearish daily candle.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 19, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a strong break above minor resistance seen at 1.6154 to add upside acceleration towards the next target seen at 1.6655. Short term, we expect minor support near 1.6033 max. 1.5987 to be able to protect the downside for the break above 1.6154.

Only a direct break below support at 1.5987 will delay the expected rally higher.

R3: 1.6354

R2: 1.6200

R1: 1.6154

Pivot: 1.6100

S1: 1.6033

S2: 1.5987

S3: 1.5803

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5665 with stop placed at 1.5800. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.6154 and place your stop at 1.5985.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 19, 2017

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Wave summary:

As long as the minor resistance at 124.11 is able to cap the upside, a deeper corrective decline in wave B could be seen towards 120.69. Once this B-wave correction is complete, a new strong rally will be expected in wave C towards 138.52.

In the short term, a break below minor support at 123.42 will add renewed downside pressure here for a test of 122.53. A break below here will confirm a decline to 120.69.

R3: 124.93

R2: 124.33

R1: 124.11

Pivot: 124.00

S1: 123 24

S2: 122.89

S3: 122.53

Trading recommendation:

Our take profit was hit at 123.00 for a nice profit of 225 pips. We will sell EUR again at 124.00 or upon a break below 123.24 with stop placed at 125.00

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for May 19, 2017

The Dollar index is heavily oversold. Yesterday I expected a bounce off the day lows and we managed to see such a bounce but not as strong as initially expected. This means that the downward pressures remain very strong and in control of the trend. However I believe traders will get better prices for shorting the Dollar index.

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The Dollar index is trading well below the 4-hour cloud and just above the 4-hour tenkan-sen. Next short-term resistance is at 98.30, while I can see over the next week the Dollar index to bounce towards the cloud resistance at 99 at least.

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The Dollar index is testing important weekly support. The weekly candle is just above the Kumo (cloud) support. I expect at least a bounce from current levels before more downside is possible. The upside potential could push the index even towards 100.50 but still there is no confirmation in the lower time frames of a bullish reversal.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for May 19, 2017

Gold price as expected is pulling back from the important weekly resistance at $1,260. Bulls now we need to see a higher low relative to the May lows at $1,214. A corrective pullback that will not hurt the bullish scenario should hold above $1,234.

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Gold price is trading above the 4-hour cloud. Trend is bullish. Gold price could bounce from current levels as price has found support at the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $1,214. Next important support is at $1,234 where the 61.8% and the cloud supports are found. Bulls should not lose that level. On the other hand bears stopped the rise right at the important resistance of $1,260. Now they need to break back below the cloud for the move towards $1,150-60 to start.

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Red line -long-term resistance

Gold remains inside the weekly Kumo (cloud). Weekly trend remains neutral. Price remains below the weekly trend line resistance. However the bounce off the lower cloud boundary was a bullish sign. Bulls however need to break above the weekly cloud at $1,280 for the bull trend to be confirmed.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 19, 2017

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When the European market opens, the eurozone will post the reports on consumer confidence, current Account, and German PPI. At the same time, the US will not release any key econmic data. So, amid the reports EUR/USD will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1166.

Strong Resistance:1.1159.

Original Resistance: 1.1148.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1137.

Target Inner Area: 1.1111.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1084.

Original Support: 1.1073.

Strong Support: 1.1062.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1055.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 19, 2017

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Today, the economic calendars of Japan and the US are bereft of any first-tier news, so there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 111.75.

Resistance. 2: 111.53.

Resistance. 1: 111.31.

Support. 1: 111.04.

Support. 2: 110.83.

Support. 3: 110.61.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 19, 2017

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Overview:

  • In the long term, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9893. The major resistance level is seen at 0.9850 followed by 0.9893 as second resistance. Also, the level of 0.9787 represents a weekly pivot point for that it will act as major level in coming hours. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because it is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.9893 towards the first support level at 0.9787 in order to test it.
  • If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.9787, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the levels of 0.9710 and 0.9655. However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.9893 (resistance 1), then this scenario may be invalidated. Additionally, the support is found at 0.9893, which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily time frame. Since the trend is below the 50% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an downtrend.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 19, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still moving upwards from the area of 0.6876. Additionally, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6971 followed by 0.7014, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6876. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.6876 and 0.6971. As the price is still above the moving average (100), the immediate support is seen at 0.6876, which coincides with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci retrecement). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.6876. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.6876. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.6876) with the first target at the level of 0.6942. Furthermore, if the pair manages to break through the first resistance level of 0.6942, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.6971). However, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the double bottom of 0.6817.
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Daily analysis of USDX for May 19, 2017

USDX gained momentum during the afternoon in the American session on Thursday, following reports of a video where former-FBI director James Comey suggested that there were no obstructions to investigations ongoing. Currently, the index is supported by the 97.50 level and that zone should give up to extend the bearish momentum towards 96.90. To the upside, the rebound should be limited by the 96.90 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.11 / 98.55

H1 chart's support levels: 97.50 / 96.90

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 97.50, take profit is at 96.90 and stop loss is at 98.10.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 19, 2017

The UK's upbeat figures released on Thursday provided support to GBP/USD, but in the American session it managed to erase the gains and turned negative, following a "flash crash" lived in a matter of seconds. Now, the pair is finding support at the 200 SMA (H1 chart), looking to resume the overall bullish bias. However, if it does a breakout below 1.2911, then it can extend the decline towards 1.2855.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2957 / 1.2984

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2911 / 1.2855

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2957, take profit is at 1.2984 and stop loss is at 1.2928.

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Daily Video Technical Analysis | USD/JPY | 18th May 2017

We take a nice detailed look at USD/JPY and see if there are any trading opportunities for us to make some juicy pips!

We combine the art of Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci extensions, Support & Resistance along with Stochastic and RSI to determine the best entry, stop loss and profit targets.

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AUD/NZD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy

Price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target. We prepare to buy above 1.0700 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to at least 1.0753 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 4.75% level where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 1.0700. Stop loss at 1.0672. Take profit at 1.0753.

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AUD/USD reaching our profit target again, prepare to sell

Price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area yesterday and is approaching our profit target once again. We prepare to sell below 0.7454 resistance (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) for a drop towards 0.7397 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong resistance at 95% level where we expect Stochastic to rise to before seeing a reaction.

Correlation analysis: AUD/USD has a strong positive correlation with NZD/USD which means they usually move together. We are expecting a rise on AUD/USD and a rise on NZD/USD which goes in line with this correlation.

Sell below 0.7454. Stop loss at 0.7476. Take profit at 0.7397.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for May 18, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair traded with a strong bearish bias yesterday to surpass our second target at 111.65 and settle below it. This opens the way towards the continuation of the bearish trend on the short-term basis. The price confirmed the return to the bearish channel that is displayed on the chart. Now the pair is waiting for testing 109.60 level as the next main station. Therefore, we will keep the bearish outlook for upcoming sessions. Otherwise, if 112.30 level is breached and the pair holds above it, this will point that breaking 110.50 is required to confirm the extension of the bearish wave to the above mentioned target. The expected trading range for today is between 110.00 support and 112.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for May 18, 2017

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Overview

The GBPJPY pair managed to decline towards 143.30 to test the support line represented by 23.6% Fibonacci level. The bullish scenario depends on the strength of this support to continue suggesting bullish attempts that target 145.45 followed by a further rally towards 148.45 top. We should note that the price attempts to decline below the current support will postpone the bullish bias and make the price to incur losses by moving towards 142.20 followed by 140.30. Thus, we should monitor the price behavior carefully to track any attempt to change the trend. The expected trading range for today is between 143.30 and 145.45

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