Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for June 12, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD has made a correction towards the level of technical support located at 1.2580, but this level was violated already. The move down is the biggest drop in the whole wave up, so we can label it as price overbalance. If the bears keep pushing, then the next target is seen at the level of 1.2485 - 1.2466 zone, which is inside of the main channel zone. The market conditions are now oversold at the H4 time frame, but the weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook. Please keep and eye on the price developments at the technical support level.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3258

WR2 - 1.2986

WR1 - 1.2861

Weekly Pivot - 1.2596

WS1 - 1.2454

WS2 - 1.2189

WS3 - 1.2084

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move lower in the longer-term.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 12, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made a pull-back towards the level of 1.1276 and this the exact level of 1:1 correction. The market moves up slightly and the mid-term trend on EUR/USD remains up, but the main long-term trend is still down. The key short-term technical support is still seen at the level of 1.1236 and 1.1148. The next target for bulls is the old swing high located at the level of 1.1419. If this level of clearly violated, then the next target is seen at the level of 1.1447 and 1.1483.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1696

WR2 - 1.1546

WR1 - 1.1432

Weekly Pivot - 1.1266

WS1 - 1.1137

WS2 - 1.0969

WS3 - 1.0859

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main long term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Markets cannot find reasons for optimism; Overview of USD, EUR, and GBP

Before the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the news background was filled with rumors and speculation about the Fed's next steps, but the regulator managed to surprise investors once again by offering almost nothing new. Prior to the meeting, the probability of introducing a control of the yield curve was regarded as high, but the Fed postponed this instrument for the future.

At the same time, something important came out. First, the Fed announced an improvement in financial conditions, which was reflected in the growth in lending to households and companies. Secondly, in addition to the plans announced in April to buy assets in the volumes that will be needed, the Fed adds another commitment – to maintain the current pace of repurchase. This will lead to the fact that by the end of this year, the volume of funds poured into the US economy will reach $ 6.8 trillion – a completely unimaginable level of support six months ago.

On the eve of the meeting, the Fed received a signal that could not be ignored - core CPI core CPI declined for the third month in a row for the first time in history, which significantly increased the threat of deflation.

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The deflation indicator from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis rose to the level of 77%, which means a very high degree of threat. The Fed expects a decline in GDP of 6.5% in the 4th quarter, while J. Powell at the final press conference stressed that the real unemployment rate is higher than the stated 13.7%.

As a result, the Fed, without saying almost anything new, could not support the wave of optimism. Oil's prices dropped below $ 40 a barrel, and a wave of riots in the United States has unexpectedly led to rising fears of a second wave of an undeclared pandemic. The reversal looks stable to ignore, so demand for defensive assets will dominate in the coming days.

EUR/USD

The euro failed on its first attempt to break through the resistance level of 1.1490, the pullback seems logical, but the overall picture remains in favor of the European currency. The first support zone is 1.1240/60 and the second one is 1150/70. In the case of a decline, you can try to buy in the first support zone and add a second zone with a goal to successfully test the level of 1.1490 again.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England will hold its next meeting on monetary policy on June 18, and considering the fact that the ECB has expanded its asset repurchase program and the Fed is implementing the largest-ever US economy support program, investors are calculating the chances that the Bank of England will announce additional measures a week later.

There are grounds for such conclusions. First, consumer demand must be supported. According to the RICS report, the housing price index declined in May from 22% to 34%, falling to a 10-year low, short-term expectations remain low, which indirectly indicates a general drop in income levels.

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The expectations for inflation remain limited, and NIESR analysts criticize the government's large-scale support program, calling it costly and ineffective, that is, unable to compensate for the drop in real incomes due to a sharp increase in unemployment.

Secondly, the Brexit factor. Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator for Brexit, said the British side refuses to seriously engage with the EU in four main areas of dialogue within the Brexit framework. As a result, the threat has been voiced that the European Parliament could veto any trade deal between the UK and the EU if it is not based on deep agreements with mutual guarantees.

As a result, markets expect at least expansion of the asset purchase program, and will assess how deep the British economy will fall from the perspective of the Bank of England. At the moment, there are fewer reasons to wait for the pound to continue growing. Testing the support level of 1.2640 successfully and returning to the zone where the pound spent its time for several months this year look justified, when trying to sell growth, with the expectation of a decline to 1.2430/50.

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Control zones for USD/CHF on 06/12/20

The downward movement remains a medium-term impulse. Despite this, the pair reached a monthly control zone, which makes it possible to buy the instrument and close all sales. The probability of further declining and updating the monthly minimum has decreased to 25%.

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The pair has not yet formed a reversal pattern even at the daily level, so purchases must be converted to breakeven when testing the nearest resistance zone.

There is a low probability for an alternative fall pattern, so sales from current levels and above are not profitable. It is better to focus on finding favorable purchase prices, as growth prospects are estimated at 200 points or more.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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EUR/AUD price movement, June 12, 2020.

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If we look at the 4-hour chart, we can see that the pair is declining. The pair may try to reach the 4-hour chart liquidity void area and break the 1.6776 level. This scenario will occur if the pair sinks to 1.6370 and hits the 1.6164 level.

(Disclaimer)

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AUD/USD Price Movement For June 12, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, we see that AUD/USD has got under bearish pressure that has already been confirmed by the Divergence between the CCI (30). The price is trying to reach the Daily Liquidity Void zone area. However, before that happens it seems that AUD/USD will make a retracement upwards to test 0.6900 before going down again. The Daily Liquidity Void Area is filled as long as the pair does not retrace upwards and closes above 0.7065.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 12, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Japanese cryptographic company Freessets announced a new technology to increase the privacy of the Bitcoin wallet.

According to the published announcement, Freessets has created a system that allows wallets to request Bitcoin balances of their addresses without disclosing those balances to servers from which they request balance or transaction history. The statement stated that conventional Bitcoin wallets explicitly ask servers for the balance of their addresses, which in turn combines the balance, transactions and addresses. However, "using technology developed by Fresset, it has been mathematically proven that servers cannot find out anything from a user's query."

Adam Ficsor, Chief Technical Specialist at Wasabi, a bitcoin portfolio that increases privacy, said he was enthusiastic about development. His company's wallet has a similar function, but he believes that the implementation of Freesset requires less bandwidth and is more suitable for mobile devices.

"Any improvement in improving privacy performance is significant and needed," he said, but added that he has several reservations. Ficsor expects that the company's approach will also mean a loss of transaction history when recovering pre-existing portfolios, and said he is not happy with Freessets' decision to develop their technologies in a proprietary manner.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair dropped suddenly below the local low at $9,158 and made a new local low at $8,990. The bulls have managed to bounce from the lows, but the bounce is shallow so far and will likely stop at the nearest technical resistance seen at $9,381.The sell-off might continue, but the market keeps bouncing from the ascending trend line support (marked in blue on chart) every time the price goes lower. It means, the bulls are still trying to push the price higher despite the overbought market conditions. For them any violation of the local low made after the sell-off ( the low is located at the level of $9,158) would indicate the start of the corrective cycle to the downside with a target seen at the level of $8,565.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,389

WR2 - $10,828

WR1 - $10,195

Weekly Pivot - $9,652

WS1 - $9,043

WS2 - $8,494

WS3 - $7.815

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 12, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

On June 9, police arrested a resident of Makhachkala in Russia, who allegedly created an illegal mass cryptocurrency mining structure that connected about 500 platforms to the local power grid.

According to a statement from local authorities, a 30-year-old miner operated a mine that caused economic damage to the national power grid worth over 34 million rubles ($ 494,000).

The report claims that an unidentified person rented a third floor in a non-residential district in May, at a construction estate in the suburban town of New Khushet, where he founded a mining farm to generate Bitcoins and altcoins. Police reported that the alleged miner connected to cables running the power line through specialized equipment. During the raid, local authorities found 518 computer components used to mine cryptocurrencies. Law enforcement authorities instituted criminal proceedings against a suspected miner for causing property damage as a result of fraud or breach of trust. At the same time, preliminary investigations are underway to clarify whether a Makhachkala resident was complicit in the mining program.

The police did not provide further details about what altcoins the suspect was extracting, or what profits the program generated in the short period in which the platforms for mining cryptocurrencies were operating.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair had broken out of the lower range boundary located at $235.42 and tested the lower channel line around the level of $225.84. The level of $235.42 will now act as short-term technical resistance for the price. The decreasing momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for Ethereum and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $217.65 and $215.58.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $282.07

WR2 - $267.98

WR1 - $254.66

Weekly Pivot - $238.43

WS1 - $226.18

WS2 - $210.71

WS3 - $197.39

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 12 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Bears continue to dictate their conditions,

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound did not postpone their goals, and successfully made their way below the support of 1.2620, which I mentioned in yesterday's review and below which I advised opening short positions. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how after the bull's unsuccessful attempt to return to resistance 1.2706, the pressure on the pound increased, but a break and consolidation below 1.2620 only strengthened the bearish momentum, which remains at the current moment. You can see new landmarks on the hourly chart. The bulls urgently need to regain the resistance of 1.2615, a little above which the moving averages pass, so they will also have to resist. Consolidating at this level will be a signal to open long positions while expecting a return and update of a high of 1.2714, where I recommend taking profits. If pressure on the pound remains, and there are a number of reasons for this that we will discuss below, it is best to postpone long positions until the support update of 1.2503 is provided, provided that a false breakout is formed there, or buy GBP/USD immediately to rebound from a low of 1.2439 while expecting a correction of 30-40 points. A new COT report will be released today, in which the alignment of forces can seriously change. Throughout the week, I pointed to the high probability of completing the bullish impulse. The COT report for the last week of June showed an increase in short non-profit positions from 61,449 to 63,014, while long non-profit positions fell sharply from 39,192 , to the level of 26,970. As a result, the nonprofit net position became even more negative and turned out to be at -36,044, against -22,257, which indicated a slowdown of the short-term bullish momentum and a very likely formation of a large downward correction by the middle of this month.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The sellers coped with the task yesterday and did not allow the bulls to form another wave of pound growth above the resistance of 1.2706. All that needs to be done in the morning is to keep the bulls above the level of 1.2615, form a false breakout there, which will signal opening new short positions in order to update the low of 1.2503. It is important to understand that while trading is conducted below 1.2615, the market will be on the side of sellers, and 1.2439 will be another target at the end of this week, where I recommend taking profits. Important data on the UK economy and industrial production for April this year will be released in the morning, which can only strengthen the bear market. If demand for the pound returns, and the bulls manage to regain the level of 1.2615, it is best to postpone short positions until the moving averages are updated, which act as resistance, or sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from the high of 1.2714 per 30-40 points correction within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the formation of a downward correction in the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound grows in the morning, you can sell at a rebound from the upper border of the indicator at 1.2680. A break of the lower border at 1.2545 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 12 (analysis of yesterday's deals). Euro continues to adjust, US dollar returns

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday, I repeatedly paid attention to sales from the level of 1.1403, which the pair approached several times throughout the day. And if questions arise with opening short positions from this level at the European session, then this could not be in the afternoon. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how another unsuccessful attempt to break above resistance 1.1403 led to increased pressure on the European currency and its fall to the day's low in the area of 1.1325. Breakout and consolidation below this level by the middle of the US session was an additional signal for selling the euro, which continues to itself out at the moment. I also indicated such a signal in yesterday's review. As for the prospects for further movement, the correction will most likely continue, since in the first half of the day, we should not expect the release of important fundamental data on the European economy, which can affect the pair. Bulls need to regain resistance 1.1325, because this is where it depends on whether the pair continues to move up or the bears will completely take the market under their control. In case of consolidation above 1.1325, the target will be resistance 1.1403, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro falls further, an equally important task for buyers will be to protect support 1.1244, where forming a false breakout will be the first signal to buy the euro. In another scenario, it is best to open long positions on a rebound from a low of 1.1199, counting on a correction of 30-40 points by the end of the day. A new COT report will be released today, in which the alignment of forces can seriously change. Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 2 recorded a decrease in both long and short positions, but sellers left the market more, which was expected to maintain a bullish momentum in the pair earlier this week. Reduction of short non-profit positions occurred from the level of 99,812, to the level of 93,172, while long non-profit positions slightly decreased, from the level of 175,034 to the level of 174,412. As a result, the positive non-profit net position increased again and reached 81,240, against 75,222.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

As for the short positions in the euro, the bears continue to do everything to build a good downward correction in the pair. After they took away support 1.1325 at the US session yesterday, which now acts as resistance, all that needs to be done in the morning is to not let the bulls go above this level, forming a false breakout there, which will indicate opening new short positions in order to update the low of 1.1244. A more distant level for euro sellers at the end of this week will be the low of 1.1199, where I recommend taking profits. Good data on the US economy could enable them to make an update at the beginning of the US session. If the demand for the euro remains at the level of 1.1325, and there is no rapid movement down, it is best to postpone short positions until the moving averages are updated, which act as resistance, or sell EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from the high of 1.1403 per 30 correction -40 points within the day,

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a further decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

The downward movement will be limited by the lower level of the indicator in the area of 1.1244, while short positions can be opened immediately for a rebound from the upper border of the indicator in the region of 1.1403.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long nonprofit positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short nonprofit positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
  • The total non-profit net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for NZD/USD on 06/12/20

Yesterday, an absorption pattern of the daily level was formed. This makes it possible to maintain open sales. Any growth should be considered as an opportunity to sell the pair at more favorable prices. In this regard, the weekly control zone 1/2 0.6473-0.6466 may become a determining resistance.

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It is important to understand that the probability of continuing to decline and returning to the opening level of June trading is higher than 70%, which makes selling the instrument profitable.

An alternative decline pattern without deep correction is also highly probable, therefore, it is necessary to keep some of the sales opened this week. The next goal of the decline will be the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 0.6342-0.6335.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for USD/CAD on June 12, 2020

The bullish movement of the quotes yesterday was 300 pips, which indicates the strength of the buyers. Any fall of the pair should be considered as an opportunity to enter buy positions, since the probability of updating the weekly high is 75%, which makes long positions profitable.

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The most favorable levels for buy positions are within the limits of the WCZ 1/2 1.3524-1.3509, a test of which will be decisive for the bullish impulse.

Today, the pair is trading within the average weekly move, which increases the likelihood of a downward correction. The fall will occur against yesterday's strong movement, so entering sell positions is quite risky. Instead, use the drop as an opportunity to find a favorable level for buy positions in the trading instrument.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by the important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area that reflects the average volatility over the past

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AUD/USD facing bearish pressure from descending trend line, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.68627

Reason for Entry: 23.6% fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit: 0.66760

Reason for Take Profit: horizontal pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.69393

Reason for Take Profit: 50% fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance, 78.6% fibonacci extension

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.13310

Reason for Entry: 38.2% fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit: 1.11704

Reason for Take Profit: 38.2% fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing low support

Stop Loss: 1.13942

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, 76.4% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones for GBP/USD on 06/12/20

Yesterday's decline allowed the pair to test a significant support zone for the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2596-1.2575. This talks about the possibility of changing the priority to downward. Sales from current levels are not profitable, however, any growth must be used to enter a short position.

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The continuation of the decline has a probability above 75%, which makes sales promising. The goal of this decline is the weekly control zone 1.2380-1.2337.

An alternative growth option is extremely low, so purchases are not profitable and should not be considered. Now, there is an option to continue declining from current levels without forming a corrective upward pattern. But this will not allow you to get favorable sale prices.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 12, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 75 points on Thursday and further strengthened the reversal potential. Marlin divergence in action. The 1.1200 target will open after overcoming 1.1265, and even lower support for the embedded price channel line at around 1.1120.

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The price consolidated below the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of negative values, the trend is completely decreasing on H4. We are waiting for the development of this trend with the stated goals.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 12, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound fell by 145 points yesterday, while it is losing another 45 points today in the Asian session, approaching the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.2540). Overcoming this level will extend the decline to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.2424. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is very close to the border with the territory of the downward trend. This proximity, when the price is close to the key level (123.6% Fibonacci), strengthens this level (1.2540), a correction or consolidation is possible from it.

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The situation is completely going down on the H4 chart - the price is below the indicator lines and Marlin is steadily declining. Price taking at 1.2540 may extend the pound's fall to 1.2424, the correction is limited by the MACD line and the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.2645.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 12, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar recently grew ahead of related currencies, but now it is no less active. It lost 144 points yesterday. The goals were set before the price: 0.6680, 0.6570, 0.6470. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator entered the zone of negative values, which fuels the downward trend.

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Over the past day, it has already moved far enough from the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin is deep in the negative zone. We expect the aussie to fall further.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 12, 2020

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair was able to gain a foothold under the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. The price entered the difficult range defined by two embedded lines of the price channel at 105.95-107.22. A corrective consolidation is possible within the range. But for now we are waiting for a fall to the lower limit of the range in the region of 105.95. The Marlin oscillator is going down in the declining trend zone.

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The oscillator signal line is moving up on the four-hour chart, which indicates that the price fall will likely slowdown.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 12. COT report. Will the April GDP collapse in the UK help

GBP/USD 1H

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The pound/dollar, as well as the euro/dollar, began to fall yesterday, which is still interpreted as a downward correction. Nevertheless, the quotes still failed to confidently overcome the important resistance area of 1.2719-1.2759, as well as the resistance level of 1.2821. Most likely, as in the case of the EUR/USD pair, buyers simply became saturated with long positions and began to reduce them slowly, which led to an increase in the supply of the euro currency in the market and, as a result, to the pair's fall. Consolidation below the Kijun-sen line is also a signal for further movement down, in the direction of the ascending trend line, which all this time continued to support traders to increase. The Senkou Span B. strong line also lies near this line. In general, these two lines are the immediate goals for the bears, which can try to build on their success, given the somewhat dubious solidity of the previous growth of the British currency. As we have said more than once, there are no reasons for the pound's growth from the UK. Everything is extremely confusing now in the United States, but there were no clear reasons for the dollar's fall either.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, therefore, for this currency pair, the trend was more likely to change to a downward one. Goals are defined on the hourly timeframe.

COT Report

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The latest published COT report for the British pound showed that professional players intensively reduced purchase contracts (-12,784 contracts) during the reporting week, and the total number of sales contracts for all groups of large traders increased by 9,000 (there were the largest number of sales contracts for 4,000). Thus, even the COT report by all means showed how strange it is for the British currency to strengthen. However, during the reporting week, the pound continued to rise in price, and if the new COT report, which is released today, again shows an increase in net sales contracts, this will cause even more bewilderment of what is happening in the foreign exchange market. And at the same time, we will be assured that a strong drop in the British pound is not far off.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair does not change at all. At least because some important news from the UK comes on holidays. There are no positive important messages at all. The latest data that traders could use was mixed and ultimately was ignored. Great Britain will finally receive several macroeconomic reports on June 12 that could affect the movement of the currency pair. In recent weeks, there was an impression that traders do not really need a fundamental and macroeconomic background. Nevertheless,we will learn about the change in industrial production for April today, as well as GDP for the same month. The first indicator is expected to decrease by 19.3% in annual terms and 15% in monthly terms. The second is likely to lose 18.4%. On the one hand, such figures should cause a reduction in demand for the pound sterling. On the other hand, there is nothing surprising in these figures, and they are unlikely to cause shock among market participants. Thus, we believe that traders will continue to trade according to their strategies and conclusions, paying only indirect attention to statistics.

There are two main scenarios as of June 12:

1) The initiative for the pound/dollar pair remains in the hands of buyers, as the trend line remains relevant. Therefore, formally now long positions are relevant with the goal of resistance level of 1.2979, but now you are advised to wait until the level of 1.2821 is overcome before you open new longs. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 140 points.

2) Sellers currently have the opportunity to sell the pair with the goal of the Senkou Span B line (1.2468). If this line is overcome along with an upward trend, then it will finally change to a downward trend for the pound, and sell orders will become relevant with the target of the support area of 1.2196-1.2216. In the first case, Take Profit is about 120 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 12. COT report. Dollar torment has come to an end. Bulls gave

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair started all the same downward movement in the hourly timeframe towards the evening of Thursday. It is still difficult to say whether this will be a more or less tangible correction or the beginning of a new downward trend. One thing is for sure, buyers have not found the strength to purchase the European currency above the resistance level of 1.1417. In principle, this is logical, since there was no important news yesterday that could strengthen the dollar on all fronts. Most likely, we are talking about the banal closing of part of the profit by buyers, which caused quotes of the euro-dollar pair to fall. Therefore, price taking below the critical line will make it possible for the pair to continue moving down, which, from our point of view, taking into account all economic factors, is more logical. So far, we expect a fall to the first rising trend line.

EUR/USD 15M

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The lower channel of linear regression finally turned down on the 15-minute timeframe on Thursday, which now signals a possible change in the trend. The index remains up, indicating how precarious the position of sellers is now.

The COT report

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The European currency continued to rise in price for most of this week. Thus, professional traders over the past few days either continued to reduce contracts for selling the euro, or, conversely, began to build up contracts for the purchase of euros. Today's COT report will show if we are right in our assumptions. At the same time, if the total number of sales contracts again turns out to be higher, or if it turns out that professional traders (speculators) did not trade the euro for an increase, this will be even more surprising than the last report and again make us assume a strong drop in the European currency .

The overall fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remains neutral. Over the past day, nothing remarkable has happened either in the United States or in the European Union. A day earlier, market participants ignored the results of the Federal Reserve meeting, Jerome Powell's statement and updated forecasts on key macroeconomic indicators. Yesterday, a single report was published on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, which is no longer an important report. Thus, a slurred movement was observed for most of the day. Buyers were obviously already full of purchases, but did not take profits, hoping for a new growth. Sellers had no reason to start trading lower. It all ended prosaically. Traders just started to exit the market and close the longs, which led to starting a correction. On June 12, the European Union plans to publish a report on industrial production for April, which is expected to decrease by 29.5% (!!!) in annual terms and by 20% in monthly terms. It is unlikely that this indicator, even if it is noticed by traders, will support the euro. But tomorrow, we will receive information on the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, which is also not extravagant now. Perhaps today we will also receive information on the results of the Eurogroup meeting, which most likely addressed issues of additional financing for the EU economy (the most affected sectors due to the coronavirus crisis).

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 12:

1) It is possible for the EUR/USD pair to resume growth if buyers are able to gain a foothold above the resistance level of 1.1417, from which a rebound has occurred earlier. To do this, you may need a positive factor from the European Union or negative from overseas. Without fulfilling at least one of these conditions, we believe that the option of moving down is now more likely. Thus, after overcoming the Kijun-sen line, we recommend selling the pair with goals of the Senkou Span B line (1.1158), the trend line (1.1090) and the support level of 1.0974. Potential Take Profit range from 150 to 340 points.

2) If buyers still find the strength to hold the pair in their hands, then the upward movement may still resume, but to identify this scenario, you need to overcome the level of 1.1417. Then we will recommend buying the euro again with the goal of the resistance level of 1.1542. Potential Take Profit in this case is 120 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 12. Every day is the same. The dollar is falling. Donald Trump is busy with his election

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 17.4094

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement for most of June 11 as if nothing had happened. Yes, the movement has weakened in recent days, however, nothing has changed at all. The minimum correction a couple of days ago was so minimal that it didn't even reach the moving average. The night before last, there was an event that could have an impact on the currency market. But again, it didn't. The Fed meeting is always a high-profile event, however, this time the US regulator did not make any important decisions. Moreover, Jerome Powell's speech and the text of the final FOMC communique did not contain anything super interesting for traders. It can only be noted that the Fed lowered its forecasts for GDP, unemployment, and inflation for 2020, which is not surprising, given the scale of the pandemic and the damage caused to the economy around the world. Thus, neither technical factors, nor fundamental, nor macroeconomic, nothing can now make traders stop selling the US dollar. We can only continue to follow the trend, which we recommend to market participants. There is no point in trying to guess the points of a possible downward turn on such a strong and almost recoilless upward trend.

During the past day, neither the European Union nor the United States had a single important and significant publication. Only reports on applications for unemployment benefits in the US were published, which showed a new 1.5 million primary applications and a total of 21 million secondary applications. However, if at the beginning of the pandemic and crisis, these figures were almost a priority for traders, as they were striking in their size, now, seeing every week plus several million unemployed, no one will be surprised by this. Moreover, the US dollar continues to fall in price for two weeks in a row, so any weak macroeconomic statistics from overseas do not weaken it further. Moreover, it should be understood that initial applications cannot be summed up to get the total number of unemployed in the country. A more or less real state of affairs shows the indicator of secondary applications. And their number is practically not increasing, so we can say that real unemployment has stopped growing.

At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the US economy has already begun to recover and will show the greatest growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2020. The Finance Minister also believes that "the country is well prepared for a strong, gradual resumption". However, these are not the most important news at this time. In fact, when the conflict between China and the United States was paused once again, everyone forgot about the "coronavirus" in the USA, the topic of rallies and protests also ceased to interest traders and investors, the country's economy is slowly recovering, the main newsmaker Donald Trump remains. First, there are simply no other news and events in the world right now. Second, it is Trump's actions at this time that will determine who wins the presidential election in November. Third, the future of the United States will depend on it. Fourth, the dollar will depend on the future of the United States. We still cannot say for sure what factors contributed to such a strong depreciation of the US currency in the past two weeks. However, the United States, in our view, has long been in a state of sluggish political crisis, which nothing can be done about it. It is impossible to remove Trump from his position and it does not make any sense since he has about six months of the presidential term left. However, more and more politicians and officials are speaking out against Trump's candidacy. So everyone just has to wait for the election to come and hope that the sweetness will change. However, will it change? The fact that Donald Trump is now 14% behind Biden in support among voters does not mean that the same picture will be observed in November. However, thanks to the racist scandal and protests across the country, as well as the "coronavirus" epidemic, the electoral base has really shrunk a lot. In the current circumstances, the US President decided to resort to a proven scheme. He began to bring back to his team the people who helped him win in 2016. Some members of the Republican party spoke about this on the condition of anonymity. Also, Trump does not forget to use his tools, which are applied to all rivals, competitors, and enemies – insults, dirt, accusations. It is reported that President Trump is going to use the services of David Urban, who helped win in Pennsylvania, Susie Wiles, who helped win in Florida, and some others. It is also reported that Trump is allegedly dissatisfied with the actions of the head of his current election campaign, Brad Parscale, who is actively engaged in promoting Trump's candidacy on social networks. However, even for those who do not follow the messages from Trump on Twitter, it is absolutely clear that such a means of communication has completely outlived its usefulness over the past 4 years. Initially, it was quite interesting – a new way of communication between the President and the people, which was supposed to bring them closer. However, after a while, it became clear that the President does not maintain his own account, but instead, a whole team does it, so there was no communication "president-citizen". It soon became clear that Trump created something like a news column from his Twitter account, in which he comments on everything that is happening. At the same time, in most cases, this column was used to throw mud at their competitors, enemies, and others who disagree with Trump's policies, and not to communicate with Americans and inform them about changes in politics, the economy, and so on. Moreover, later many analysts, experts, and even entire companies began to study Trump's tweets and it turned out that most of them simply do not correspond to reality. In this case, what confidence can there be in the President and in such a way of communicating with the population? Well, what you can be sure of is that attacks on Joe Biden will resume in the near future. We are not saying that Biden has nothing to attack, however, this is Donald Trump's favorite way to go to his goals.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 12 is 97 points. Thus, the value of the indicator is still characterized as "high", thanks to the last trading days. We expect the pair to move between 1.1230 and 1.1424 levels today. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back up will signal the end of the downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a new round of corrective movement. Thus, long positions with the goals of 1.1424 and 1.1475 remain relevant at this time, but after the price rebounds from the moving average line. It is recommended to return to selling the pair not before fixing the price below the moving average with the first goal of the Murray level "4/8"-1.1230.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Stock markets paused as they await

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The stock markets of the United States started a downward movement yesterday, which was provided by news from the Federal Reserve Service. The decline started after it was announced that the regulator was not going to revise the level of interest rates, since the economy was not yet strengthened enough and its growth would not be rapid in the near future. Thus, such a policy should last until 2022.

The Dow Jones Index began to decline rapidly after the rally, which lasted for several weeks. This was followed by the S&P 500. On the contrary, the NASDAQ Composite index was able to reach a level above 10,000, which has not happened to it yet.

The reason for the mixed dynamics in the market is the Federal Reserve Service's speech. The regulator noted that it is not necessary to hurry with the widespread lifting of quarantine measures related to COVID-19. Despite the fact that weakening has already begun and many enterprises have resumed their activities, economic growth has not yet begun and the recovery process will be slow and problematic, especially since there is another threat of a recurrence of the events of recent months: the number of cases in the United States has risen sharply, which has not been for about five weeks.

According to preliminary data, total production in America will be reduced around 6.5% in terms of a year. This figure will drop even lower - by 5% next year.

Today, market participants are waiting for a report on the number of jobs and manufacturing activity. In addition, some large companies must publish data on their income, and this raises many questions.

It can be noted that the market will change under the pressure of several factors today. First, investors are worried about the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States: according to preliminary forecasts, it should be at the level of 1.55 million. It can be recalled that data from last week amounted to 1.87 million. Thus, the indicator is expected to decline which should support the market. If this does not happen, the decline will continue and will be even more rapid.

The second factor is the producer price index, which is traditionally considered an indicator of inflation. Experts argue that the consumer price index should rise over the past month by 0.1%. The previous period was marked by a decline of 1.3%. This should also add positivity.

For the third factor, we can highlight the publication of data on the income of large companies. Investors are particularly interested in this because the value of shares on stock exchanges has been growing for quite a long period, and the real profit, on the contrary, has been seriously affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

All these factors today must either push the market to further growth or put pressure on it and cause a decline.

On the other hand, European stock markets were marked by negative dynamics this morning. This was also caused by the gloomy prospects of the Fed of the United States of America. As a result, market participants did not want to take risks and rush to fix their profits.

In general, the Stoxx Europe 600 index increased approximately by 30%, while its minimum value was recorded in March.

The German DAX index declined by 2.8%, France's CAC 40 index by 3%, the UK FTSE index by 2.6%. Following the downward trend, the overall Stoxx Europe 600 index also declined. It fell by 2.5%.

At the moment, the securities of those companies that were the first to take the shock wave of COVID-19 pandemic were most affected. In particular, a significant decline is recorded by air carriers and catering.

Today, the European stock market is waiting for the results of the Eurogroup's meeting, on the agenda of which is the further functioning of the Eurozone economy recovery fund. It can be recalled that countries can't reach an agreement until now and are sending a bill to organize the fund for revision.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com