NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for April 13, 2018

In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780).

An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels. The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum.

Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11. That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390. Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High were expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

In general, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7200 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurs.

The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 remains a significant supply zone to offer a valid SELL entry during the current bullish pullback. S/L should be placed above 0.7450.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown of 0.7200 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 13, 2018

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All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Though the pair posted a pullback and fell below its 20-period moving average, it is still staying above its rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50. To conclude, as long as 107.25 is not broken, look for a further advance with targets at 108 and 108.25 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 107.25, take profit at 108.00

Resistance levels: 108.00, 108.25, and 108.75.

Support levels: 107.05, 106.80, and 106.30.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 13, 2018

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All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Despite the recent consolidation, the pair is still bullish above its key horizontal support at 0.9600, which is expected to limit any downward attempts. The rising 50-period moving average suggests that the prices may still have upside potential to go. In addition, the relative strength index is mixed to bullish. Hence, above 0.9600, look for a new rise to 0.9650 and 0.9670 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9500, take profit at 0.9650.

Resistance levels: 0.9650, 0.9670, and 0.9700

Support levels: 0.9585, 0.9565, and 0.9510.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 13, 2018

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All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair stands firmly above its nearest horizontal support at 152.90, which should limit any downside room. A bullish cross has just been identified between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (a positive signal). Furthermore, the relative strength index stays above its neutrality area at 50, and shows upside momentum. To conclude, as long as 152.90 holds on the downside, look for further advance to 154.25 and 154.90 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 154.25, 154.90, and 155.50.

Support levels: 152.90, 152.30, and 151.70.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 13, 2018

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Our first upside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.7345. The pair remains bullish above its nearest support at 0.7345 and is likely to post a new bounce. The process of higher highs and lows remains intact on the prices, which should confirm a positive outlook. In addition, the relative strength index is turning up and also broke above its neutrality at 50. To conclude, as long as 0.7345 is not broken, likely advance to 0.7385 and 0.7400 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7385, 0.7400, and 0.7450

Support levels: 0.7320, 0.7300, and 0.7265.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 13, 2018

EUR/JPY

There is a bullish bias on the EUR/JPY cross. Price has risen by over 150 pips this week, and it is now above the demand zone at 132.50. The next target may be the supply zones at 132.00 and 132.50. There are also supply zones at 132.00 and 131.50, which may impeded any pullbacks along the way.

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The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is now above the level 50, which would become strong as price journeys further northwards. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 13, 2018

USD/JPY

The much awaited volatility has come back to the market. Price has risen significantly and it has closed above the demand level at 107.50. The next targets would be the supply levels at 108.00 and 108.50, which would soon be breached to the upside, as more buying pressure comes into the market.

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The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, which means price would continue going up irrespective of temporary pullbacks on the road.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 13 2018

USD/CHF

Much has not changed as far as the USD/CHF pair is concerned. This pair has started going upwards and it would soon reach the resistance level at 0.9650, which would be breached to the upside as price goes towards another resistance level at 0.9700. A directional movement will soon start.

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There is a slight Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The William's % Range period 20 is now going into the overbought territory. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56. This means price would go further upwards.

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Global macro overview for 13/04/2018

The minutes of the March meeting of the ECB were dominated by a cautious tone and an indication of the risks for the economic outlook. It was noted that the removal of the dovish attitude from forwarding guidance regarding the asset purchase program "should not be misunderstood" and the Council still leaves the option of reacting to potential shocks. There is "broad agreement" that there is insufficient evidence of stabilizing inflation trends. The general tone of the document suggests that the ECB has no strong arguments for speeding up policy standardization, but seriously analyzes the risks. Thus, the report is in sharp contrast to the hawkish comments of ECB member Ewald Nowotny from three days ago. "Short squeeze" on EUR cross from Tuesday does not find justification in ECB Minutes, and in combination with a series of weak data from the Eurozone (like today's industrial production), more convincing might be a negative market reaction today.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The 61% Fibo at the level of 1.2380 was too much for the bull camp, therefore the price dropped towards the technical support at the level of 1.2290 and since then is trading in a tight consolidation zone of 1.2314 - 1.2346. The momentum is neutral, which support the short-term sideways outlook for this pair. In a case of a further breakout to the upside, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2400 and the nearest important technical support is still seen at the level of 1.2290.

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Global macro overview for 13/04/2018

Global macro overview for 13/04/2018:

Market sentiment at the end of the week remains good. Although the risks associated with the trade war and geopolitics (Syria) are still present, the last 24 hours bring rather calming comments, which supports the risk appetite. However, a weekend is coming, where something can always happen, so there are chances the global investors will take the profits off the table just for the peace of mind.

For now, however, Europe is trying to capture the USD/JPY breakdown over 107.50, as well as the AUD / USD output above the 0.7770 / 80 zone. If these barriers remain "underneath" after the weekend, it will open the way for further increases. Both movements are consistent with the strengthening of risk appetite and the rejection of fears about conflicts between the US-China and US-Russia. The race over import tariffs has now subsided and, as President Trump put it, yesterday, talks with China are "going well" and the USA is making "progress." The same Trump withdrew from his tweeter threats to Russia regarding the launch of rockets over Syria, which was also confirmed by US secretary of defense Mattis, according to which "the US does not intend to participate in the civil war in Syria. In general, therefore, things seem to go in the right direction, which encourages the toning of nerves. On the other hand, the upcoming weekend is always a period when investors are less willing to hold positions, after all, markets may not work then, but politicians and soldiers are active. Belaying profits this afternoon is not an exclusion, which on Monday in an optimistic case may also give a short moment to catch better levels.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a new higher high at the level of 1.4295 with strong momentum. Nevertheless, the market conditions are now overbought, so the price might start to consolidate the recent gains in a tight zone between the levels of 1.4247 - 1.4295. The next target for bulls is the January swing high at the level of 1.4346, which has not been challenged yet.

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Bitcoin Analysis for April 13, 2018

Bitcoin has been impulsive with the bullish gains since yesterday. At present, the price is currently proceeding with the unchanged momentum towards $8,500 area. Without any strong fundamental news on the Bitcoin, certain bullish pressure is expected to be the reason of the involvement of big investors like George Soros in the market. The more reliability and more efficiency is expected from the crypto market currently which will lead to further bullish pressure in the coming days. As for the current scenario, the price has closed above $7,500 with a daily close which makes it quite more probable for the market to proceed higher towards $8,500 and later towards $10,000 in the future. As the price remains above $5,000-5,500 area, the bullish pressure is expected to continue.

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for April 13, 2018

NZD/USD has been impulsive and non-volatile with bullish gains which are expected to proceed higher in the coming days. USD has been struggling with the gains against NZD due to recent downbeat high impact economic reports which made the NZD sustain its gains despite mixed economic reports from New Zealand. Today, Business NZ Manufacturing Index report was published with a decrease to 52.2 from the previous figure of 53.3, which did not quite affect the bullish bias on the market but slowed down the bullish rally for a while. On the other hand, USD has been struggling to maintain its gains amid a series of weak economic reports. Today, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 100.6 from the previous figure of 101.4, JOLTS Job Opening is expected to decrease to 6.11M from the previous figure of 6.31M, and Prelim UoM Inflation Expectation is expected to be neutral whereas previously it was at 2.8%. As for the current scenario, expectations for the upcoming US economic reports are dovish in nature whereas better-than-expected readings will lead to more bullish gains on the NZD side for the coming days. To sum up, after certain correction along the way, NZD is expected to dominate USD further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bullish residing above 0.7350 area from where certain bearish pressure is expected which will lead to certain retracement in the pair before it launches itself higher towards 0.7450 price area in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.7250 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 13, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $8,096. Trying to take its share of the profits, the government of Latvia may accept cryptocurrencies as a legal means of exchange. This year's tax filing campaign is underway and officials don't have much time. Two parliamentary commissions and the Ministry of Finance have expressed their views on the matter this week. Latvians may very soon owe the state tax on their gains from crypto transactions. Technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the Daily time frame, I found that price is holding well above the horizontal resistance and supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $8,800

Support/Resistance

$7,684 – INtraday support

$8,095– Intraday resistance

$8,800 – Objective target

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Analysis of Gold for April 13, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downawrds. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,334.38. Accoridng to the M30 time – frame, I found a broken bullish support line in the background, which is a sign that sellers took control from the buyers. Currently, Gold is trading in the corrective mode and a potential bearish pennant is in creation. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of pennant to confirm potential bearish continuation. The downward target is set at the price of $1,322.40.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,347.50

R2: $1,360.10

R3: $1,366.97

Support levels:

S1: $1,328.10

S2: $1,321.22

S3: $1,308.68

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for April 13, 2018

AUD/JPY is quite impulsive with the bullish gains after the break above 82.00 price area recently. Recently published mixed economic reports of JPY lead the price to become more impulsive with the AUD gains whereas further bullish pressure is expected in the coming days. Recently JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda spoke about the monetary policies and economic development which failed to impress the market participants with a neutral point of view. On the other hand, despite having mixed economic reports as well AUD gained good momentum over JPY which does indicate the severe weakness of JPY in the process. Today AUD RBA Financial Stability Review report was published with a hawkish result which leads AUD to become more impulsive with its bullish gains in the process. As of the current scenario, AUD is expected to continue the gains further in the coming days whereas JPY may struggle further for the coming weeks.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA proceeding impulsively towards 84.50 price area from where if it is broken with a daily close, further bullish pressure may be observed with a target towards 87.50-89.00 price area. As the price remains above 80.00 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 13, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.4295. According to the M30 time – frame, I found that buyers are in control, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a broken resistance and hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator in the background, which is another sign of strength. The trend is bullish and my advice is to go with the direction of the trend. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.4310 and 1.4340 (major swing high).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4268

R2: 1.4310

R3: 1.4370

Support levels:

S1: 1.4165

S2: 1.4105

S3: 1.4065

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 13, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is still continuing to move upwards from the level of 0.7294 and 0.7350. The level of 0.7294 represents the daily pivot point in the H4 time frame. The pair rose from the level of 0.7294 to a top around 0.7375. Right now, the price is moving around the level of 0.7375. Also, it should be noted that the resistances levels are lies in 0.7375 and 0.7436, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7294 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7294 and 0.7436; so we expect a range of 142 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7375, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7436) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7300 with the first target at 0.7375 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7436. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7436 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7294, a further decline to 0.7151 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 13, 2018

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Overview:

Today, the USD/CHF pair has broken resistance at the level of 0.9549 which is acting as support now. Thus, the pair has already formed minor support at 0.9549. The strong support is seen at the level of 0.9549 because it represents the daily support 1. Equally important, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for an uptrend. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.9549 in the H4 chart. Also, if the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and CHF is in a downtrend. Buy above the minor support of 0.9549 with the first target at 0.9704, and continue towards 0.9749. On the other hand, if the price closes below the minor support, the best location for the stop loss order is seen below 0.9549; hence, the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9417 to test it again. Furthermore, the level of 0.9417 will form a double bottom.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 13, 2018

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Overview:

Today, the USD/CHF pair has broken resistance at the level of 0.9549 which is acting as support now. Thus, the pair has already formed minor support at 0.9549. The strong support is seen at the level of 0.9549 because it represents the daily support 1. Equally important, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still calling for an uptrend. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.9549 in the H4 chart. Also, if the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and CHF is in a downtrend. Buy above the minor support of 0.9549 with the first target at 0.9704, and continue towards 0.9749. On the other hand, if the price closes below the minor support, the best location for the stop loss order is seen below 0.9549; hence, the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9417 to test it again. Furthermore, the level of 0.9417 will form a double bottom.

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Trading plan 04/13/2018

Trading plan 04/13/2018

The general picture: The markets are waiting for the US attack on Syria.

The focus is on the prospect of a US strike against Syria. The second main topic - trade tension between U.S. President Donald Trump and China - will come to the fore after the decision on Syria. The rest of the news so far are on the sidelines. (In the background, the decision of the ECB is approaching on April 26).

Syria and the US: it seems that the probability of a strike is high. Allies - Britain and France - are ready to support the United States, plus Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, the main risks for the US: a chance of getting a military retaliatory strike against its forces in Syria - this will raise the question of a large-scale US war against Damascus - and this is not in the plans of the US Armed Forces - whatever one may say.

The second risk - an attack can be too unsuccessful - as with the result an attack a year ago - this may cause the U.S. to lose some face.

In general, there is a chance that there will be no impact at all.

We believe that in any case - with the cancellation of the attack- or after it - there is more chance of seeing a decline in the dollar.

GBPUSD: Buy on strong kickbacks up to 1.4100.

With a break below 1.4100, buy at around 1.3700.

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Burning forecast 04/13/2018

Markets remain in suspense, waiting for the US decision to strike on Syria and the consequences of such an attack.

On one hand, the likelihood of a strike is rising- US allies are increasing support, statements are being made about Syria's evidence of Syria's chemical attack on April 7.

On the other hand, the top US media wrote about the high risks of a strike. It is clear that the final decision has not yet been made.

Other news has come to the fore.

Expectations for EURUSD: Expect a breakthrough to the level of 1.2400 and a strong move.

Buy from 1.2400, stop at 1.2355, profit at 1.2680.

Alternative: Sell from 1.2213, stop at 1.2258, profit at 1.2000.

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Bitcoin analysis for 13/04/2018

The Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation spokeswoman, Irina Volk, stated that the police detained two people related to the mining farm found in an abandoned factory. As reported in the Russian media, more than 6,000 mining devices were found in the city of Orenburg. Reports also contained a recording of police raids. According to reports, rumors about the mining farm appeared in early March, but the police refused to verify them. The farm has stolen electricity worth 8 million kWh for an estimated cost of 60 million rubles.

This is not the first time that the Russian authorities have closed the illegal operations of extracting cryptocurrencies. In February, the police arrested several scientists working at the nuclear weapons research institute for using supercomputers to mine cryptocurrency.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price spiked up towards the level of $8,000 with a solid momentum of $1,000 per hour. Moreover, it looks like the market has broken through the golden trend line dynamic resistance around the level of $7,500 as well. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of $9,134 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $7,442. The bullish impulsive scenario is still intact.

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Trading plan for 13/04/2018

The sentiment on the markets is better now, and the lack of information about the escalation of conflicts on the subject of a trade war or Syria is helping. The risk appetite is used mainly by AUD, and the defensive is JPY and SEK. Nikkei is higher, but the Shanghai stock exchange is down, as China's foreign trade data weakened. Oil drifts sideways.

On Friday 13th of April, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on German Final CPI data, Eurozone Trade Balance data and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment data from the US.

SP500 analysis for 13/04/2018:

US secretary of defense Mattis said the US did not intend to participate in the civil war in Syria, while President Trump said that the US is making progress in trade negotiations with China. This allowed for the relief of nerves among investors and promotes the appetite for risk.

In the Friday's calendar, there is no significant macroeconomic data, which could largely start the exchange rate of the most important currencies. However, traders should be vigilant around 12:00-13:00, because then Donald Trump wakes up in social media, and as you know, the market is vulnerable to the Tweets of the US President.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tested the technical resistance at the level of 266.81 and got back to the intraday consolidation. The gap down between the levels of 268.89 - 270.30 is still not filled despite a quite strong upward momentum. The nearest intraday support is seen at the level of 264.95 and only a clear breakout lower would open the road towards the next technical support at the level of 262.92.

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