Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 14, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. Although the pair posted a pullback, it is still trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

To sum up, while the price is above 109.25, look for a further advance to 110.00 and even to 110.30 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 109.25 with a target at 108.85.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 109.50, Take Profit: 108.60

Resistance levels: 110.00, 110.30, and 110.55

Support Levels: 108.85, 108.60, 108.25

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 14, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish outlook .The pair posted a rebound from the key support at 0.9580, which should limit the downside potential. The 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period one. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum.

On the economic data front, the U.S. Labor Department reported that consumer prices increased 0.1% on month in July, lower than +0.2% expected.

Therefore, as long as 0.9670 is not broken, a further rise to 0.9735 and even to 0.9770 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position; and the price below the pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9670, Take Profit: 0.9735

Resistance levels: 0.9735, 0.9770, and 0.9805

Support levels: 0.9605, 0.9580, and 0.9550

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 14, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair is rebounding and is holding above its rising 20-peirod and 50-peirod moving averages, which are playing support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

In addition, 141.70 is playing a key support role, which should limit the downside potential. As long as 141.70 is not broken, look for a further advance towards 142.80 and even 143.55 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended above 141.70 with the target at 141.20.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 141.70, Take Profit: 142.80.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 142.80, 143.35, and 144.35

Support levels: 141.20, 140.50, and 140.00.

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Analysis of Gold for August 14, 2017

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Recently, gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,283.00. According to the daily time frame, I found a rejection from the strong resistance at the price of $1,290.00, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is also an evening star formation (bearish formation), which is another sign of weakness. I added Stochastic oscilator and got overbought conditions. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,274.00 and $1,254.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,295.75

R2: $1,296.75

R3: $1,298.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,293.52

S2: $1,295.35

S3: $1,291.15

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of EUR/JPY for August 14, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 129.30. According to the 4H time frame, I found a bullish fake breakout of the trading range in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I found that Stochastic got an overbought condition and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The first downawrd target is set at the price of 128.00 (previous swing low).

Resistance levels:

R1: 129.30

R2: 129.40

R3: 129.55

Support levels:

S1: 129.00

S2: 128.85

S3: 128.75

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 14, 2017

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NZD/USD is under pressure and expected to trade in lower range. The pair broke below its 50-period moving average, which is playing a resistance role, and is consolidating on the downside. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

As long as 0.7330 holds on the upside, look for a further drop towards 0.7250 and even 0.7220 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7350, 0.7370, and 0.7405

Support levels: 0.7250, 0.7220, and 0.7180

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 14, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair was trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick advance towards 1.1850 and 1.2000-1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, the evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish moves towards 1.1415-1.1520 (daily supply zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, the evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection can be anticipated.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched during the current bearish pullback.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for August 14, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (the key zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market.

This brings the EUR/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (the key zone) where the price action should be watched for a possible BUY entry.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 14, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair moved sideways last week. In case it moves sideways throughout this week, the bias would become neutral. However, a movement above the resistance line at 1.1850 and below the support line at 1.1700 would create a directional bias. EUR could be seen going upwards versus AUD and NZD this week.

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USD/CHF: A "sell" signal has already been generated on the USD/CHF pair, owing to the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Unless USD gains some stamina, further bearish movement would be witnessed this week. The targets are the support levels at 0.9600, 0.9550 and 0.9500. A movement above the resistance level at 0.9750 would help the pair to restore a bullish bias, and render the bearish expectation invalid.

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GBP/USD: In the context of a downtrend, GBP/USD went sideways. Further sideways movement would result in a short-term neutral bias on the market; while a movement to the downside would lay more emphasis on the recent bearishness in the market. There is also a possibility of a rally (though it could be short-term). GBP could go upwards versus AUD and NZD this week.

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USD/JPY: From the July high of 114.49 USD/JPY dropped 550 pips, testing the demand level at 109.00 on Monday. The demand level would be tested again, and breached to the downside, as other demand levels at 108.50 and 108.00 are aimed. The outlook on JPY pairs remains bearish for this week.

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EUR/JPY: This pair dropped 250 pips last week, almost reaching the demand zone at 128.00. The upwards bounce that happened at the end of the week has given another wonderful opportunity to sell at better prices in the context of a downtrend. The next targets for bears are the demand zones at 128.50, 128.00 and 127.50.

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Global macro overview for 14/08/2017

Global macro overview for 14/08/2017:

The increase in geopolitical tension has become a convenient pretext for some investors to fix some profits. On Thursday, this pretext also worked, as President Trump sharpened rhetoric against North Korea. He stated that his previous statement was too weak and did not want to ensure that the United States did not make a preemptive strike. The US strongman warned North Korea in no uncertain terms this week that its continued threats if carried out, would be met with overwhelming force. North Korea, undeterred, announced it was planning to target the waters surrounding the US territory of Guam with four missiles and that a plan would be ready within a matter of days. Trump responded by noting US military plans are now "locked and loaded" should North Korea act unwisely. In the result, the US and global indices retreated further from the recent all time highs.

The ramp up in rhetoric between the Trump administration and North Korea has caused a flight-to-safety (as one would expect). This has triggered a safe-haven rally of gold futures, US 30-year Treasuries, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. During the weekend the ongoing tensions decreased a little, but are still far away from termination, so this week the US-Nort Korea conflict development will still be number one geopolitical news that will influence the financial markets. It is worth to mention that tensions have risen after the United Nations imposed sanctions against North Korea. The sanctions aim to cut North Korean overall exports by 30% and ban international exports of coal, iron ore and seafood.

Let's now take a look at EUR/CHF technical picture on the H4 timeframe. This currency cross will be highly influenced by the increase of geopolitical risks. Bulls have managed to retrace around 50% of the recent drop and now the price is trading just below the technical resistance at the level of 1.1411. In case of a further escalation of the conflict, the flight-to-safety procedure will continue, which is why lower prices are expected. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.1198.

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Global macro overview for 14/08/2017

Global macro overview for 14/08/2017:

The recent inflation data from the US were in line with market participants' expectations. The CPI data were released at the level of 1.7% on yearly basis, but on monthly basis were worse than expected: 0.1% vs. 0.2% (still better than last month 0.0% though).

Disappointment with the reading of the July CPI inflation in the US was not high, as the annual growth rate was in consensus, but the monthly was worse. The weakness was caused by a decline in hotel prices, a highly variable element and not relevant to the monetary policy. Key components (especially on the services side) have fallen as well, but that does not change the fact that the inflation acceleration towards the 2.0% target still can not be seen. This situation looks less encouraging to the Fed's hawks, but also market participants do not see the grounds for discounting more chances for another interest rate hike this year. However, the market valuation before the Friday reading was relatively low (about 40%) and the disappointment was below 0.1%. This is not a solid foundation to move expectations lower. The US dollar also stopped selling off the strength that it had built up in previous days in the hope of a positive surprise. We are at a point where the market knows as much about the future of Fed policy and its impact on the US dollar, as at the beginning of last week.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market is bouncing back up from the technical support at the level of 108.79 towards the key technical resistance at the level of 109.84. The oversold market conditions and strong momentum indicator support the temporary bullish outlook.

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Weak dollar is a chance for the euro

Eurozone

The dynamics of the euro in the absence of significant macroeconomic publications were largely determined by news from overseas and technical factors.

According to the CFTC report, the net long-term value of the euro continues to rise and reached a record high in 6 years published on Friday.

An estimate of the GDP growth in the eurozone for the second quarter will be published on Wednesday and expectations are neutral.

United Kingdom

For the week, the British pound traders looked for reasons to resume growth but failed to do so. The quarterly growth rate of GDP declined by 0.2%, according to NIESR. This confirms the slowdown of the economic trend wherein a weaker pound could not induce growth. The trade balance goes much further into the negative territory after the results in June turned out to be worse than the forecasts of experts.

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Brexit is picking up its pace.

On Tuesday, a large report on production prices and consumer inflation in July will be published.

Report on the labor market for June will be published on Wednesday.

The retail sales report will be released on Thursday and there is no reason to expect positive results.

Oil and ruble

The OPEC report published last week turned out to be better than expected.

At the same time, the U.S. gasoline stocks are growing while China is reducing imports which are negative signs. Currently, the oil market shows a bullish tone and there is a possibility of Brent to increase by 53 dollars per barrel and will be much higher by the end of the week.

Russia's GDP growth was significantly higher by 2.5% year-on-year compared to the forecast. The Inflation fell to 3.9% with the surplus of foreign trade amounted to 59.6 billion dollars in the first half of the year. It is 33.4% greater in the same period a year ago.

Slow inflation and overall economic growth led to an improvement in the business climate and lending conditions. Sberbank has made an unprecedented decline in the lower mortgage lending bracket to 7.4%.

A noticeable improvement in the economic situation.

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Trading plan: August 14 - 18, 2017

Trading plan 14 - 08/18/2012

General picture: There is no any important economic news expected. However, there is a package of economic data from the United States to be issued on Tuesday at 15.30 which includes retail sales, business activity index in New York and the price of imports and exports. All these releases are not arranged according to its importance, but it can move the market generally. On Wednesday, the report regarding the minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting will be released. But there seems to be no chance of any surprises. The currency market should wait until next week, August 24 to 25 for an important meeting of the heads of the largest securities in Jackson-Hole. Everyone is waiting for an agreed decision regarding the beginning of an exit from the super-soft monetary policy.

On the political front: Last week, the markets anticipate for a US military strike against North Korea. The statements of both sides were extremely tough. But the question of the strike seems to be postponed and China again gets a "last chance" to force the North Korea to make a deal but a blow in the future is highly possible.

EURUSD

We expect growth at least until the latest high of 1.1910. The trend is not broken up. We stand in the purchase from 1.1770 and stop at 1.1725, hence, it is possible to stop at 1.1745. The level for down trade entry is to breakdown 1.1685.

The signal for stopping the upward trend is closing the day below 1.1600.

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Trading plan for 14/08/2017

Trading plan for 14/08/2017:

The Asian stock market starts the week with gains after no news regarding the US-North Korea conflict were published during the weekend. The Hang Seng rises slightly more than +1.0% while the Shanghai Composite added +0.85%. The yen and the franc stand out in the foreign exchange market, both of them posted the highest growth last week. Gold loses 0.3%, platinum falls by 0.75%.

On Monday 14th of August, the event calendar is light with only the Industrial Production data from the Eurozone on tap. Nevertheless, there were some overnight data that might play a role today. The Retail Sales data from China were at 10.4% which can be considered as a healthy read, and the Industrial Production was at 6.4%. Positive figures came from Japan. Annualized GDP dynamics fell to 4% q/q (2.5% threshold).

EUR/USD analysis for 14/08/2017:

The Eurozone Industrial Production data are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and market participants expect to fall for the first time in four months. The market consensus forecast sees output slipping- 0.5% for the monthly comparison at the end of the second quarter. This would be the first monthly decline since February and the steepest setback this year. The year-on-year trend will suffer as well, but continue to post modest growth and still rising 2.8% on the yearly basis. The recent set of economic data from the Eurozone was very positive and indicated a steady pace of the economic growth. This is why weakness in today's hard data for June should be considered a temporary pause in an otherwise ongoing recovery for the Eurozone economy.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The current corrective cycle from the high at the level of 1.1908 is the biggest and longest one in the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. So far the resistance at the level of 1.1846 - 1.1829 still holds, but better than anticipated data from the Eurozone might challenge the recent top soon. The next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.1614.

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Market Snapshot: Gold just below the swing high

Gold is about to challenge the 2-months high at the level of 1296 as the price had broken above the 78%Fibo at the level of $1,277. The market conditions look overbought, but the momentum is still strong and points to more upside gains. The biggest challenge for bulls will be to break out above the resistance zone between the levels of $1,296 - 1,308.

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Market Snapshot: GBP/USD in sideways correction

GBP/USD is currently trading inside of the narrow zone between the levels of 1.2932 - 1.3031. The market awaits more data in order to trigger the next move in either direction. Violation of the resistance at the level of 1.3031 opens the road towards the levels of 1.3057 and 1.3111 and violation of the support at the level of 1.2932 may push the price towards the level of 1.2853.

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A number of representatives of the Federal Reserve changed their tone of statements

Weak inflation data last week put serious pressure on the US dollar, which continued to decline against a number of world currencies.

Also, the attractiveness of the US dollar has declined due to the fact that a number of Fed officials, speaking last week, all voiced their unanimity about the need to keep interest rates at the previous levels, while in early summer the majority advocated for their further increase.

According to the futures market, traders expect a rate hike in December, with a probability of 38%, while on Friday, before the release of inflation data, this probability was 47%.

According to the Ministry of Labor of the country, inflation in the US in July this year remained rather restrained. Thus, the consumer price index rose by only 0.1% compared to the previous month, while economists were expecting 0.2%. The basic consumer price index, which does not include prices for volatile categories also increased by 0.1% compared with June, while economists expected 0.2%.

Compared to the same period in 2016, consumer prices increased by 1.7%, as did the base index.

Such weak data on inflation, most likely, will force the Fed to reconsider its attitude to interest rates already at the September meeting of the committee. More restrained statements can negatively affect the US dollar.

Fed representative, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that the current level of interest rates is appropriate and low inflation mean that the Fed will have to wait for the increase in interest rates. According to Kaplan, at present, there is no need to cool the economy by raising rates.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, its return to the resistance level of 1.1820 was not surprising, the breakthrough in the intermediate area of 1.1830 will lead to an increase in long positions in the trading tool of large investors, which will update to 1.1890 and reach 1.1930.

Today, there are no important fundamental data, so it is likely that the day will be held at a low volume with a small market volatility and the main trend movements will begin tomorrow.

The Japanese yen ignored data that Japan's economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year was much better than economists' forecasts. According to the report, the economy grew by 4% against the background of strong spending by consumers and companies compared to the same period in 2016, compared to the 1.0% growth in the first quarter of this year.

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Economists predicted that the country's GDP growth in the reporting period will be 2.5%.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for August 14, 2017

EUR/USD non-volatile bullish trend is still intact which is expected to continue further in the coming days. Currently, the price is quite volatile and corrective after the positive NFP data released recently, yet USD could not recover well enough against EUR to show some more gains. The United States published the CPI report which was worse than expected at 0.1% whereas the forecast called for 0.2%. At the same time, the Core CPI was published unchanged at 0.1% which was expected to rise to 0.2%. The recent US economic reports provided boost to EUR and the market sentiment is currently well shifted to EUR side until USD comes up with any positive economic reports in the coming days. On the EUR side, today the Industrial Production report is going to be published which is expected to be negative at -0.4% which previously was at 1.3%. As it is one of the leading indicators of economic health, a negative report will lead to weakness in EUR in the medium term. On the other hand, today the United States does not have any economic events or reports to be published but tomorrow the Core Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to show a positive rise to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.2% and the Retail Sales report is expected to show a positive rise as well to 0.4% from the previous value of -0.2%. As the USD reports unfold this week, we might get some directional bias in this pair for the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 1.1820 resistance level after bouncing off the dynamic level support of 20 EMA recently. As the price is in non-volatile bullish trend which has been invincible since the break above 1.0850 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and support area of 1.1500 to 1.1620, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 1.2140 resistance level.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 14, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a clear break above the resistance at 1.6236 for upside acceleration towards 1.6969. As long as the resistance at 1.6236 is able to cap the upside, we should see consolidation just below this resistance, but it should only be a matter of time before this resistance is taken out for the expected rally higher to 1.6969.

R3: 1.6470

R2: 1.6300

R1: 1.6236

Pivot: 1.6200

S1: 1.6100

S2: 1.6050

S3: 1.5921

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5910. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6100 or upon a break above 1.6236 and use the same stop at 1.5910.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 14 - 2017

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Wave summary:

A break above the minor resistance at 128.90 indicates a correction from 128.00 is unfolding for a rally closer to 129.90 before renewed downside pressure towards 126.70 and likely even closer to 125.08 before the corrective decline from 131.40 are completed and a new rally closer to 137.36 should be expected.

R3: 130.45

R2: 129.90

R1: 129.69

Pivot: 129.25

S1: 129.12

S2: 128.81

S3: 128.53

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 128.90 was hit for a small profit. We are looking to sell EUR again at 129.70 with stop placed at 130.90.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 14, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as the Industrial Production data m/m. The US will not release any significant economic data today, so EUR/USD is likely to move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1882.

Strong Resistance:1.1875.

Original Resistance: 1.1864.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1853.

Target Inner Area: 1.1827.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1797.

Original Support: 1.1786.

Strong Support: 1.1775.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1768.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 14, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the preliminary GDP price index y/y and the preliminary estimate of the GDP growth today whereas the US will not present any significant economic data. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.96.

Resistance. 2: 109.73.

Resistance. 1: 109.519.

Support. 1: 109.27.

Support. 2: 109.05.

Support. 3: 108.83.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY bouncing perfectly off major support, remain bullish

The price has started to bounce off the major support at 108.75 (multiple Fibonacci extensions, horizontal swing low support) and we expect a rise from this level to at least 110.08 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing the major support above 5.3% and we expect a corresponding bounce above this level too.

Buy above 108.75. Set stop loss at 108.35 and take profit at 110.08.

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AUD/USD profit target reached perfectly, remain bullish for a further rise

The price has bounced up from our buying area and has reached our profit target perfectly. We remain bullish after the price has broken out of our bearish channel as we look to buy above major support at 0.7892 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to at least 0.7942 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension).

RSI (34) sees a bullish exit from a long-term descending resistance-turned-support line signalling that we're seeing a change in momentum from bearish to bullish.

Buy above 0.7892. Set stop loss at 0.7865 and take profit at 0.7943.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 11, 2017

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 11, 2017

NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell on channel resistance

The price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area and has reached our profit target. We prepare to sell on major resistance at 0.7329 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance, channel resistance) for a push down to at least 0.7263 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing the major resistance below 94% where we expect a corresponding drop from.

Sell below 0.7329. Set stop loss at 0.7371 and take profit at 0.7263.

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EUR/JPY approaching profit target, prepare to sell

The price has bounced up perfectly from our buying level and is fast approaching our profit target. We prepare to sell on major resistance at 129.51 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to at least 128.11 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) once again.

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing the major resistance below 94% and we expect a reaction off this level.

Correlation analysis: We're seeing JPY strength with drops on AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

Sell below 129.51. Set stop loss at 130.03 and take profit at 128.11.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has shot up perfectly from our buying area and has reached our profit target. We prepare to sell below the strong resistance at 86.57 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension) for a corrective drop towards 85.42 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing the major resistance at 91% and we expect a drop from here.

Correlation analysis: We're seeing JPY strength with drops on AUDJPY and EURJPY.

Sell below 86.57. Set stop loss at 85.42 and take profit at 87.17.

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USD/CHF bouncing nicely off support, remain bullish for a further rise

The price has dropped and reached our buying level before bouncing up perfectly. We remain bullish above the major support at 0.9593 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a push up to at least 0.9671 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is bouncing nicely off our 12% support and has good upside potential.

Buy above 0.9593. Set stop loss at 0.9560 and take profit at 0.9671.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 14, 2017

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair bullish trend has been formed from the support levels of 1.3012 and 1.3020. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel.
  • This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), the immediate support is seen at 1.3011, which coincides with a ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci.
  • Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.3011. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3011/1.3020. Therefore, buy orders are recommended at the price of 1.3020 with the first target at the level of 1.3100.
  • Furthermore, if the trend breaks through the first resistance level of 1.3100, then we will see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3140) to test it.
  • On the other hand, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.2972.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 14, 2017

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair faced strong support at the level of 1.1801 because resistance became support last week. So, the strong resistance has been already faced at the level of 1.1801 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. The level of 1.1801 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as minor support this week. Furthermore, the EUR/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.1801. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to move between 1.1722 and 1.1801. Also, it should be noticed that the double top is set at 1.1901. Additionally, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. Therefore, buy orders are recommended above 1.1722/1.1801 with the first target at the level of 1.1801. If the trend breaks the weekly pivot at the level of 1.1801, then the market will continue rising towards the weekly resistance 1 at 1.1880. However, the stop loss should be placed below the level of 1.1693.
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Daily analysis of USDX for August 14, 2017

USDX was smashed during Friday's session amid geopolitical concerns and Fed speakers' dovish rhetoric. So far, the index has stayed above the support level of 92.80 and it's still looking to ride the bullish structure in the short-term. If it manages to break above 93.23, then we might expect a rally continuation towards 93.75.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.23 / 93.75

H1 chart's support levels: 92.80 / 92.48

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD index breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 93.23, take profit is at 93.75 and stop loss is at 92.72.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 14, 2017

GBP/USD may a have an interesting week given that it has been trading in sideways between 1.3021 and 1.2955 levels across the board. A breakout below 1.2955 level should expose pair to move towards the next key area of 1.2897. The downside risk remains alive as the pair continues to trade below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. MACD indicator is still at the positive territory, favoring for more upside.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3021 / 1.3080

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2955 / 1.2897

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2955, take profit is at 1.2867 and stop loss is at 1.3011.

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US dollar: a massive reassessment of risk is coming

The US dollar, which briskly started the week, lost all of its trump cards and was again sold out on Friday amid muffled data on inflation.

Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in July, an annual increase of 1.7%. Both indicators are better than a month ago, but worse than expected. Experts forecasted prices to rise by 0.2% in the monthly data and 1.8% in the annual data.

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Yesterday, the producer prices report was published. It also turned out to be worse than expected. The annual price index rose by 1.9% which is worse than the 2.0% results from the previous month. It is even much worse than the expectation of 2.2%. Compared to the results from June, prices have dropped by 0.1%. The worse-than-expected data indicates that there is still a significant imbalance in the market between estimates of the state of the US economy and real macroeconomic indicators.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said on Friday that the US Federal Reserve can wait in increasing interest rates until inflation approaches the target of 2%. Kashkari drew attention the fact that the wage growth remains slow and a premature rate increase may lead to a slowdown in economic growth.

In fact, over the past week, the probability of a rate hike in December, according to the CME, fell from 48% to 35.9%. The expectations of this next step by the Fed moved to June 2018. The shift of expectations for six months is a lot. In fact, bulls in dollars are deprived reasons to go on the offensive in the foreseeable future.

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Another factor of the weakness of the dollar was the geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula. US President Donald Trump warned Pyongyang against attacks on Guam, where the US military base is located or on US allies. The markets began to respond to the verbal war, but the probability of a military solution to the issue at the moment is extremely small. The probability of a strike against North Korea will cause Russia to be extremely displeased with China and will promote an even closer rapprochement which clearly does not meet the long-term interests of the United States.

A noticeable increase in the degree of tension is not accidental and quite possibly intended to hide something more substantial than Pyongyang's nuclear program. On Thursday, the Treasury report on the budget was published despite the annual dynamics for 17 months. Revenue growth cannot compensate for the decline of the previous period and ensure the fulfillment of government obligations. Perhaps Trump's formidable rhetoric about North Korea is of an intra-American nature. Trump tries to score points before a large-scale battle with the Congress on a number of crucial issues. Hour X is approaching, the government must submit a draft budget for the 2018 financial year. In any case, it is impossible to balance falling incomes with expenditures without raising the ceiling of borrowing. Moreover, the formation of budget is meaningless without the approval of a tax reform, the project of which has not yet been submitted to the Congress. Perhaps Trump's administration will try to combine these two issues into one. The markets expect active government action in the near future.

On Tuesday, data on retail sales and import and export prices will be published in July. Forecasts are moderately positive. If the released data is no worse than expectations, it can stop the decline in the dollar. On Wednesday, the market's attention will be focused on the publication of the protocol of the July FOMC meeting. Players will assess the likelihood of the start of a quantitative tightening program in September.

In any case, there are more questions than answers. The dollar cannot rely on either economic growth or geopolitical stability. While there is advantage over defensive assets, primarily for yen and gold, there is a high probability that this mood will continue for the upcoming week.

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