Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 09, 2018

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. USD/CHF is expected to continue the upside movement. The pair is trading above its rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the upside bias. A support base at 0.9780 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum.

Therefore, while the price is above 0.9780, we expect a further advance to 0.9870 and even to 0.9885 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: buy, stop loss at 0.97, take profit at 0.9800.

Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9870, and 0.9915

Support levels: 0.9755, 0.9735, and 0.9700.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for January 09, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite bearish this week having bounced off the 1.2050 resistance area with a lot of struggle along the way. EUR has been the dominant currency in the pair for the last few weeks but the area of 1.2050 helped bears to push the price lower with an impulsive pressure. Today the euro had some mixed economic reports which resulted in deeper losses against USD. The German Industrial Production report was published with an increase to 3.4% from the previous negative value of -1.2% which was expected to be at 1.9%. Furthermore, the German Trade Balance report also showed an increase to 22.3B from the previous figure of 19.9B which was expected to be at 20.7B. On the other hand, the French Trade Balance report showed greater deficit of -5.7B from the previous figure of -5.3B which was expected to be at -4.8B. At the same time, the Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate showed a slight decrease to 11.0% as expected from the previous figure of 11.1% and the Eurozone Unemployment Rate also met the expectation of 8.7% decreasing from the previous value of 8.8%. Speaking about the US news, the Retail Sales, PPI and CPI reports are to be published this week. Today the NFIB Small Business Index report was published with worse outcome of decrease to 104.9 from the previous figure of 107.5 which was expected to be at 108.4. As of the current scenario, despite having worse economic reports in comparison to EUR, USD has maintained gains until now which indicates the strength of USD against EUR. As this kind of pressure remains and the US presents better economic reports, it is expected that USD is going to dominate over EUR in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently being held by the dynamic level support of 20 EMA which is expected to be violated and proceed much down towards 1.1850 support area in the coming days. Price is currently quite slowed down in comparison to recent bearish pressure in the pair but with small retracement the price is expected to head much lower in the future. As the price remains below 1.2050, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 09, 2018

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GBP/JPY is under pressure and expected to trade with bearish outlook. The pair recorded lower tops and lower bottoms , which confirmed a negative outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.

To conclude, as long as 153.00 is resistance, expect a new test with targets at 151.75 and 151.50 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 152.90 with the target at 152.50

Strategy: Sell, stop loss at 153.00, take profit at 151.75

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 153.65, 153.85, and 155.

Support levels: 151.75, 151.50, and 151.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 09, 2018

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Our first upside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is still expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair is consolidating above its key support at 0.7160. The relative strength index is around its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

To conclude, as long as 0.7160 is not broken, look for a rebound to 0.7220. A break above this level would trigger another advance to 0.7240.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels, while the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7190, 0.7220, and 0.7250.

Support levels: 0.7145, 0.7125, and 0.7100.

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Global macro overview for 09/01/2018

The beginning of the year brought a slowdown in the US Dollar Index, which defended important support in the area of 91.50 points. Support for USD may have been yesterday's comments from John Williams - head of the Fed branch in San Francisco, who said that US interest rates could rise three times this year. In addition, in his opinion, in favor of economic growth should affect the tax bill passed last year. On the other hand, Raphael Bostic spoke less optimistically about the growth rate of money. In the opinion of the new head of the Fed branch in Atlanta, monetary policy tightening should be continued this year, however at a slower pace than in 2017, provided further economic growth and inflation. In any case, the Fed's base scenario remains a gradual tightening of monetary policy.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame after those comments from the FED officials had hit the markets. The comments helped bulls to lift the price up towards the key technical resistance at the level of 92.49 - 92.67 and now the market is testing this area. The momentum is pointing to the north, so bulls should seize the opportunity and try to break out above the resistance zone. In that situation, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 93.04. The immediate support is seen at the level of 92.28.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 09, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $14585. South Korean regulators are seeking cooperation with counterparts from Beijing and Tokyo to address cryptocurrency speculation. Six commercial banks have been targeted by Seoul authorities inspecting crypto trading. Korean experience is to help a possible trilateral approach to regulation.The technical picture is neutral to bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H timeframe, I found broken wedge formation, which is a sign that buying looks risky and that sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $12.759 and at the price of $10.671.

Support/Resistance

$15.309 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$14.370– Intraday support

$12.759 – Objective target 1

$10.671 – Objective target 2

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Global macro overview for 09/01/2018

The strong euro was a common type for 2018 predictions and the rhetoric of urging the ECB to exit the QE program faster than anticipated prevailed last week. Nevertheless, when investors are doubtful after the weekend. The downbeat inflation data from the Eurozone and inability of EUR/USD to break 1.21, because the US labor market report was not bad at all, dented traders' confidence. The market reaches the curse of the so-called "Conviction trade" - if the market is strongly convinced, the lack of strength to freshly pull the market in a given direction and the correction comes with time. Still, quite upbeat data from Germany was released this morning (the industrial production in November rose by 3.4% m/m against 1.8% in the forecast), so the fundamental analysis is still backing up the euro. Maybe last week investors were too frantical and bought the Euro at "bad" levels, but now they have the opportunity to build up the exhibition on slightly better terms.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has violated the technical support at the level of 1.1961 - 1.1931 and currently is dropping lower towards the level of 1.1901. There is a golden trend line around this level that might provide support for the price as well. The level of 1.1902 is 50% Fibo retracement of the latest leg up, so the support around the level of 1.1900 will be hard to crack.

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Analysis of USD/JPY for January 09, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 112.59. According to the 30M time frame, I found a breakout of upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at 112.20 and 112.05.

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.35

R2: 113.60

R3: 113.85

Support levels:

S1: 112.85

S2: 112.60

S3: 112.35

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of GBP/USD for January 09, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3513. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.3523, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a piercing pattern, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at 1.3555 and 1.3580.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3595

R2: 1.3620

R3: 1.3655

Support levels:

S1: 1.3530

S2: 1.3495

S3: 1.3469

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 9, 2018

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 0.9786 yesterday. The level of 0.9786 coincides with a golden ratio (38.2% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.9810 (pivot) with the first target at the level of 0.9835. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.9869 and further to the level of 0.9889. The level of 0.9889 will act as a strong resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.9913. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9756, then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 9, 2018

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is expected to continue rising from the levels of 0.7120 or 7185 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7120 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7165. So, buy above the level of 0.7165 with the first target at 0.7195 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7232. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7232 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. However, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support levels of 0.7120 and 0.7185, a further decline to 0.7060 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 9, 2018

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has gone downwards by 100 pips this week, and the price is below the resistance lines at 1.2000 and 1.1950. It is possible that the pair will go downwards by at least another 100 pips today or tomorrow. Therefore, the next targets would be the support lines at 1.1900 and 1.1850.

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USD/CHF: The market has gone upwards by 70 pips this week, and now it is above the support level at 0.9800. Further bullish movement may lead to formation of a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart – especially when the resistance level at 0.9900 will be breached to the upside. The ultimate target is the major resistance level at 1.0000. This is on the condition that the EUR/USD pair will continue going southwards.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument has only gone flat so far this week. Price may be able to go upwards to test the distribution territories at 1.3600, 1.3650 and 1.3700. However, that does not eliminate a possibility of a significant pullback, which may happen any time this month.

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USD/JPY: This pair made some shallow bearish threat yesterday, but nothing has really changed significantly. In the short-term, the pair is choppy, but in the long-term, it is neutral. However, the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the week, and thus, some southwards propensity may be witnessed.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair has started going downward this week. The market has gone south by 170 pips and it is now below the supply zone at 134.50. Once the demand zone at 133.50 is breached to the downside, a Bearish Confirmation Pattern would be formed on the 4-hour chart. The price is expected to continue going lower.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 9, 2018

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Daily Outlook

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (previous daily supply zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (a neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, in November, the price action around the zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery.

This hindered further decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2000-1.2100 where price action should be watched for a valid SELL entry (Note the bearish engulfing daily candlesticks of the previous two days).

On the other hand, daily persistence above 1.2100 confirms the depicted bullish continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.

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H4Outlook

On November 7, a short-term uptrend was initiated around 1.1570 Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been moving higher as depicted on the chart.

Recently, a double-top reversal pattern was established around the price levels of 1.2080. This was followed by bearish breakdown below 23.6% Fibonacci level (1.1990).

As long as the EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1990, further decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1890-1.1850 (the demand zone) where the uptrend line comes to meet the depicted Fibonacci levels.

Price action should be watched around the depicted demand zone (1.1890-1.1850) for significant bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown below 1.1850 ( 61.8% Fibonacci ) will be a valid SELL signal if enough bearish pressure is applied against the mentioned zone.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 9, 2018

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why the further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.

Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7250 if the current bullish momentum is maintained above the key-level of 0.7150.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 is considered a prominent Supply-Zone to be watched for SELL positions if enough bearish rejection is expressed on a daily basis.

On the other hand, the price zone of 0.7050-0.6980 has turned to be a newly-established demand zone to be watched for BUY entries if any bearish pullback occurs.

Trade Recommendations:

Daily closure below the price level of 0.7140 is considered a valid SELL signal. Initial T/P levels should be located at 0.7050 and 0.6980.

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Bitcoin analysis for 09/01/2018

The stereotypical thought of the African revolution, which breaks the chains of oppression and domination, evokes images of the bloody battles of liberation. But now, thanks to a new tool that does not discriminate or exclude, Bitcoin helps the African Millennials free themselves from financial repression.

Armed with smartphones, every day African citizens are able to take advantage of the growing ecosystem and benefit from it. But that is something more; Companies want to use Blockchain technology as a cheaper alternative in order to build a better business.

In order for a person to be able to go public or invest in a company or idea, it requires more than just knowledge. The traditional money market has been for so long an elite environment that the subtle excludes those who are not related to it. A thirty-something woman from Kampala, Uganda, does not exactly match the profile of an experienced investor. However, Bitcoin opens this world to everyone and everywhere. Ordinary life in a place like Uganda is a much more difficult task than on the streets of New York. Employment is a lottery even for school leavers. So-called "side streets" are the daily bread for many impoverished nations. However, Bitcoin offers an alternative that is not time-consuming and is available and easy to manage. There are also companies that challenge a difficult and brutal workplace, using Blockchain's power to reduce costs and time. A company called BitPesa acts as a media company, transferring money across borders, but instead of using a medium like the US Dollar, it chose Bitcoin and its simple cross-border transfers.

One of the problems that appeared earlier in connection with the African revolution in Blockchain and cryptocurrency is training the masses in this technology. This prompted some to enter the Bitcoin education business. Martin Serugga, a merchant in Kampala, started a weekly Bitcoin class, which currently brings together around 50 people. His opinion on this subject refers to unemployment and that interest comes from those who are desperately looking for a job. Serugga adds:"If there are no jobs in factories and other workplaces for thousands of young people leaving universities, cryptocurrencies are an alternative."

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market remains locked in a sideways correction as the corrective cycle in wave (4) continues. As long as the golden trend line is not clearly violated, there is still a possibility of a triangle pattern to develop in time. Please notice that the longer term trend remains bullish and there is still at least one more wave to the upside to make - wave (5).

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Trading plan for 09/01/2018

The Asian part of the session was under influence of a sudden USD/JPY collapse. AUD has been supported by good economic data, so NZD followed it, as it usually does. The Euro remains on the defensive, but the stock market is still growing, noting more highs. Crude oil remains high as well.

On Tuesday 9th of January, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants will keep an eye on German Trader Balance data, Italian and Swiss Unemployment Rate data, Canadian Housing Starts data and JOLTs Job Openings data from the US.

USD/JPY analysis for 09/01/2018:

A sudden jump in the Yen is probably a reaction of investors to the decision of the Bank of Japan to reduce the volume of purchased government bonds on cyclical auctions. At a weekly auction, the BoJ offered to buy securities with a maturity of 10-25 years and over 25 years by 10 billion JPY less than at the auction at the end of December. The market began to speculate about the bank's future departure from ultra-loose policy, although BoJ aims at bringing inflation to the 2% target anyway.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price dropped to the technical support at the level of 112.48, just below 61% Fibo retracements at the level of 112.56 and currently is bouncing towards the technical resistance at the level of 113.09. The price remains locked in a horizontal area between the levels of 112.02 - 113.45 and as long as either of this level is not clearly violated, the trend remains neutral.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD bounces from 61% Fibo

The price of USD/CAD had bounced from the level of 1.2355, which is just below the 61% Fibo retracements of the previous swing up at the level of 1.2387. Currently, the price is testing the internal resistance at the level of 1.2448 and if bull will be strong enough to break out above this level, then the next target is seen at the level of 1.2488. Oversold market conditions support the view.

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Market Snapshot: GOLD breaking to the downside?

After making the swing high at the level of $1,325, the price of GOLD was moving in a sideways correction zone established between the levels of $1,320 - 1,313. Nevertheless, growing bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator is now triggering the bearish price action as the GOLD starts to violate the support. In a case of a further drop, the nearest support is seen at the level of $1,305.

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Technical analysis of USDX for January 9, 2018

The Dollar index is moving higher as expected. The trend is bearish as long as the price is below 93.65 but at least a short-term bounce towards 92.60 was expected and mentioned in our previous analysis. I believe we are heading towards that level of resistance and we could see it this week if not today.

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The double bottom at 91.77 played out nicely so far. The price is above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators and is testing the Ichimoku cloud resistance. The price is heading towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement which is my short-term target. Resistance is at 92.60-92.70. Support is at 92.10.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The Daily chart shows how the price is trying to make a bounce. The trend remains bearish as the price is still inside the bearish channel and below the Daily cloud. Daily resistance is at 93.50. Support is at 91.70. I expect the bounce to continue and even challenge the upper channel boundary. A break below 92 will be a bearish sign that will decrease dramatically the chances of a move towards 93.

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Technical analysis of gold for January 9, 2018

Gold price is consolidating and moving sideways in the short-term. Price has formed a triangle pattern. Triangles are usually found at the last stages of a trend, so we could see a final break out towards $1,330-40 before the reversal.

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Red lines - bullish channel

Blue lines - triangle pattern

Gold price remains inside the bullish channel while moving sideways in a triangle pattern. Support is at $1,316 and resistance lies at $1,322. A break above resistance could push the price to $1,330. A break below support will signal the start of the correction phase of at least the upward move from December lows.

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Blue line - expected path

Gold price has broken out of the Ichimoku cloud. The trend is bearish. But it is time for at least a pull back towards cloud support at $1,280. This is not the time be long on gold but look for bearish reversal confirmation.

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Burning Forecast 01/09/2018

Burning Forecast 01/09/2018

EURUSD: Buy for a breakthrough of 1.2090.

The new year started with a corrective decline in the euro.

We stand on selling from 1.2000, but the potential movement looks weak. It is more likely that the EURUSD pair will move up and make a new attempt at growth at 1.2090.

To sell late, do so for a breakthrough while it is early - there is no level downwards.

At a turn upwards:

Buy from 1.2090, stop at 1.2045, the target is 1.2200.

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Daily analysis of Gold for January 08, 2018

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Overview

The gold price shows some bearish bias after testing 1,321.49 levels this morning. As long as the price is above 1,299.20, our bullish overview will remain active for today, supported by the EMA 50 that carries the price from below. A breach of 1,321.49 levels is required to confirm heading towards 1,357.53 as the next main station. The expected trading range for today is between the 1,310.00 support and the 1,335.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for January 08, 2018

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Overview

A tight range continues to dominate the dynamic of the silver price, which moves around 17.20 levels. Thus, there is no change to the bullish trend scenario that depends on holding above 16.55 levels, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below. Our main targets begin by a breach of the 17.43 level, which will confirm opening the way to 18.30 as the next main station. The expected trading range for today is between the 17.00 support and the 17.42 resistance.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 08, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways at the price of $14.637. The South Korean government has announced that some taxes can be applied to cryptocurrencies under the current law, which will be finalized in the first half of this year. Other taxes are also being considered, but some are not easily implemented under the current tax system. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H time frame, I found a broken wedge formation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the prices of $12.760 and $10.670.

Support/Resistance

$16.036 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$12.759 – Objective target 1

$10.671 – Objective target 2

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GBP/USD analysis for January 08, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. According to the 1H time frame, I found that the price successfully tested the Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.3529, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a bullish outside bar candle formation, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the prices of 1.3580 and 1.3610.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3590

R2: 1.3615

R3: 1.3650

Support levels:

S1: 1.3530

S2: 1.3498

S3: 1.3470

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities

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USD/JPY analysis for January 08, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. According to the 30M time frame, I found that the price has broken the upward channel in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a fake breakout of Friday's high at the price of 113.30 and hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the prices of 112.73, 112.58 and 112.20.

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.33

R2: 113.60

R3: 113.92

Support levels:

S1: 112.74

S2: 112.43

S3: 112.15

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities

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Global macro overview for 08/01/2018

Greek Prime Minister Aleksis Cipras expressed his conviction on Monday that his crisis-indebted country will financially stand on its own feet just this year. It will be "a milestone on the way out of the crisis," he said. At the same time, the head of government warned that there was still much to be done in the coming months. The main issues are privatization, new regulations on the right to strike, as well as solving the problem of unpayable loans. Parliament will vote on a package of laws dealing with these issues next week. Cipras declares optimism. "Everything indicates that we are on the last straight," he said, but the announced projects will mainly affect the electorate of the left-wing party Cipras - Syriza. It is planned, among other things, that the strike will be legal in the future only on the condition that in the referendum a majority of trade union members, employees of a given company or institution will be in favor of it. Moreover, the Labor law reforms are a very sensitive issue in Greece, where unemployment exceeds 20% and the scale of poverty has risen sharply since 2010.

In December, as part of the latest review of the implementation of foreign aid conditions, the Greek government agreed to further reduce spending, reduce pensions, complete the review of qualifications of public sector employees and sell coal-fired power plants. The fiscal objectives set out in the draft Budget Act for 2018 have been approved by the European Union financial institutions and the International Monetary Fund that credit Greece.

Let's now take a look at EUR/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price had broken out of the black channel and hit the level of 136.62 and then reversed back to the channel again. Currently, the market is trading below the technical support at the level of 135.65 and the next support is seen around the level of 135.25 (channel support) and then 134.78.

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Global macro overview for 08/01/2018

In December, non-farm employment increased by only 148k, less than expected 190k. Wages increased by 0.3% m/m, maintaining the annual dynamic at 2.5%. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, as expected. For the market participants, employment is of secondary importance, but the lack of a positive surprise in wages strikes the optimism built after good ISM and ADP data.

December's data puts into question the date of another interest rate hike in the US and supports cautious rhetoric among the FOMC's members in this regard. Moreover, this week, market attention will be focused on inflation data. First of all, global investors will find out how the price dynamics in large economies such as China and the US were shaped in December. The inflation data will be the very important because without a spike in inflationary pressures there is no chance of sustained hawkish rhetoric among the Fed's members. In addition, in view of the continuing divergence between the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, it is also worth noting the minutes from the last meeting of the ECB. Most likely, expectations regarding core inflation developments will be crucial for the timing of changes in the monetary policy of the euro area.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market tried to rally above the technical resistance at the 113.50 - 113.74 zone, but bulls were too weak to perform this rally and the price only tested the internal golden trend line and reversed. The momentum is still quite strong, but the market conditions are becoming overbought at this time frame, which suggests a pullback towards the level of 112.50.

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