Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on September 22

Trading recommendations for the EUR / USD pair on September 22

Analysis of transactions

Another surge in coronavirus incidence, as well as high risk of another quarantine, led to huge sell-offs in the European currency, from the level of 1.1854. It brought about 60 pips of profit from the market.

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Further problems with the coronavirus will discourage investors from buying the euro, thus, it is best to bet on the continued fall of the EUR / USD pair.

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  • Buy positions when the quote reaches a price level of 1.1773 (green line on the chart). Take profit around the level of 1.1863.
  • Sell positions after the quote reaches the level of 1.1728 (red line on the chart). Breaking the weekly low and / or the escalation of the coronavirus situation within Europe could lead to another major fall in the euro. Take profit at the level of 1.1654.

Trading recommendations for the GBP / USD pair on September 22

Analysis of transactions

Another surge in COVID-19 cases, together with a high risk of another quarantine in the UK, led to large sell-offs in the British pound. As a result, quotes fell sharply after reaching the level of 1.2945.

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The upcoming speech of Fed chairman Jerome Powell will influence the sentiment of the market this week, which will most likely be in favor of dollar bulls. In addition, the deteriorating situation with Brexit, as well as intensifying incidence rate of coronavirus, will add serious pressure on the British pound.

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  • Buy positions when the quote reaches the level of 1.2814 (green line on the chart). Take profit around the level of 1.2877 (thicker green line on the chart).
  • Sell positions after the quote reaches 1.2771 (red line on the chart). Any negative news from the EU or related to Brexit will lead to much more pressure on the pound. Take profit at the level of 1.2716.
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Hot forecast and trading recommendation for GBP/USD on 09/22/2020

So, the coronavirus is once again becoming the main topic that overshadows everything else. Even Brexit has faded into the background. So much that no one is interested in what is happening in that area now. The editorials of all kinds of media are filled with publications and reports that the restaurant business in the United Kingdom is under threat. And so traditional English pubs, and the difficult situation they are in, miraculously became the most important event in the world. But fears do not emerge out of nowhere. The number of new cases of coronavirus is skyrocketing in the UK, and it really looks like the beginning of a second wave. The UK government has not yet introduced a new quarantine, but has seriously raised fines for violating the self-isolation regime, as well as other restrictive measures. And all this frightens investors who are trying to get rid of the pound. They are well aware that British businesses, both small and medium, simply will not survive the new quarantine. The previous one caused considerable economic damage, from which they have just begun to recover. Businesses don't have resources to re-quarantine. The impact will be truly massive, think bankruptcies and layoffs. This is what weighs on the pound. The expectation that this is inevitable, and everything goes to this, forces investors to prepare in advance for the worst.

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Market participants took a downward position once again after a short stagnation within the psychological level of 1.3000, resulting in movement towards the support point of 1.2770. A full recovery of the relatively recent correction, this is what we have now and perhaps this is just the beginning.

Based on the quote's current location, you can see a slight pullback from the 1.2770 area, where the market is still experiencing a downward interest.

Ultra-high rates are recorded in terms of volatility, which indicates high emotional instability in the market.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that the momentum set on September 1 might be prolonged.

We can assume that the 1.2770 level will put pressure on sellers, which could be reflected in a full-fledged pullback towards 1.2885, but everything may radically change if market participants manage to settle below 1.2770 in the four-hour period.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods firmly indicate a sell signal due to a rapid downward move.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs on September 22

Outlook on September 22:

Analytical overview of currency pairs on the H1 TF:

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The key levels for the euro/dollar pair on the H1 chart are 1.1871, 1.1839, 1.1809, 1.1786, 1.1725, 1.1678, 1.1624 and 1.1586. The price here is forming a potential for the downside movement from September 21. The decline is expected to continue after the breakdown of 1.1725. In this case, the target is 1.1678. Breaking through which will be accompanied by a strong decline to the level of 1.1624. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1586. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1786 - 1.1809. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.1839, which is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is building capacity for the downward cycle of September 21

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1786 Take profit: 1.1808

Buy: 1.1811 Take profit: 1.1839

Sell: 1.1725 Take profit: 1.1680

Sell: 1.1677 Take profit: 1.1625

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The key levels for the pound/dollar pair are 1.2913, 1.2866, 1.2828, 1.2758, 1.2691, 1.2606 and 1.2546. The price is forming a local potential for the downward movement from September 18. On the other hand, a short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.2758 - 1.2691. In case of breakdown of the last value, it will lead to a strong downward movement. The target here is 1.2606. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2546. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2828 - 1.2866 and breaking through the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.2913, which is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of a local structure for the low of September 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2828 Take profit: 1.2864

Buy: 1.2867 Take profit: 1.2911

Sell: 1.2758 Take profit: 1.2693

Sell: 1.2689 Take profit: 1.2607

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The key levels for the dollar/franc pair are 0.9275, 0.9257, 0.9226, 0.9202, 0.9170, 0.9132, 0.9116 and 0.9093. Here, we are following the upward pattern from September 16. Moreover, the downward movement is expected to continue after the breakdown of 0.9170. In this case, the target is 0.9202. There is a short-term upward movement and consolidation in the range of 0.9202 - 0.9226. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a strong upward movement. The target is 0.9257. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9275. Upon reaching which, we expect a downward pullback.

Now, a short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9132 - 0.9116. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction and the target is 0.9093, which is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from September 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9170 Take profit: 0.9200

Buy : 0.9203 Take profit: 0.9224

Sell: 0.9132 Take profit: 0.9117

Sell: 0.9115 Take profit: 0.9095

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The key levels for the dollar/yen are 105.56, 105.26, 105.09, 104.86, 104.47, 104.34, 104.09 and 103.86. The price is in a correction from the downward trend and is forming a potential for the September 21 high. Now, the continuation of decline is expected after the price passes the noise range 104.47 - 104.34. In this case, the target is 104.09. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level 103.86. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

The development of the upward structure from September 21 is expected after the breakdown of 104.86. In this case, the target is 105.09. The range of 105.09 - 105.26 is the key support for the downward structure and the price passing this level will dispose to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the potential target is 105.56.

Main trend: descending structure from September 4, correction stage

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 104.88 Take profit: 105.09

Buy : 105.27 Take profit: 105.52

Sell: 104.34 Take profit: 104.10

Sell: 104.07 Take profit: 103.88

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The key levels for the USD/CAD pair are 1.3382, 1.3356, 1.3325, 1.3282, 1.3261 and 1.3234. We are following the local upward structure from September 18th. Here, the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3325 (level of 1.3261 is the key support). In this case, the target is 1.3356. On the other hand, we consider the level 1.3382 as a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3282 - 1.3261. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. The target is 1.3234, which is the key support for the main trend.

The main trend is the local upward structure of September 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3325 Take profit: 1.3356

Buy : 1.3357 Take profit: 1.3380

Sell: 1.3282 Take profit: 1.3262

Sell: 1.3259 Take profit: 1.3234

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The key levels for the AUD/USD pair are 0.7291, 0.7256, 0.7236, 0.7189, 0.7163, 0.7131 and 0.7112. We are following the development of the downtrend cycle from September 16. At the moment, the continuation of decline is expected after the breakdown of 0.7189 (level of 0.7256 is the key support). In this case, the target is 0.7163. There is consolidation near this level. The breakdown of the indicated target will lead to a strong decline. Our next target is 0.7131. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7112, from which an upward pullback is expected.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7236 - 0.7256 and breaking through the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.7291.

The main trend is the downward cycle from September 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7236 Take profit: 0.7255

Buy: 0.7258 Take profit: 0.7290

Sell : 0.7189 Take profit : 0.7165

Sell: 0.7161 Take profit: 0.7131

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The key levels for the euro/yen pair are 124.23, 123.81, 123.56, 123.16, 122.41, 121.86, 121.20 and 120.74. Here, the price has formed a local descending structure from September 18th. The decline is expected to continue after breaking through the level of 122.41. In this case, the target is 121.86 and there is consolidation near this level. If the target breaks down, it will lead to a sharp decline. Here, our next target is 121.20. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 120.74. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation and upward pullback.

Meanwhile, leaving into correction is expected after the breakdown of 123.16. The target is 123.56, while the range of 123.56 - 123.81 is the key support for the downward structure. The price passing this range will lead to the development of an upward structure. Here, the first potential target is 124.23.

The main trend is the local descending structure of September 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 123.16 Take profit: 123.56

Buy: 123.81 Take profit: 124.23

Sell: 122.40 Take profit: 121.88

Sell: 121.84 Take profit: 121.20

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The key levels for the pound/yen pair are 135.77, 135.00, 134.49, 133.44, 132.65, 131.63 and 131.04. We are following the local descending structure from September 10th. Now, a short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 133.44 - 132.65. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a sharp decline. Here, the target is 131.63. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 131.04. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 134.49 - 135.00. If the last value breaks down, it will lead to a deep correction. The target here is 135.77, which is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local descending structure of September 10

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 134.49 Take profit: 135.00

Buy: 135.03 Take profit: 135.75

Sell: 133.44 Take profit: 132.67

Sell: 132.63 Take profit: 131.63

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for September 22, 2020

The pair continued to decline on Monday testing the historical support level 1.2919 (white dashed line). Today, the downward movement may continue. Based on the economic calendar, pound news is expected at 07:30 UTC, and dollar news is expected at 14:00 and 14:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move downward from the level of 1.2818 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target of 1.2721 - a 61.8% pullback level (red dotted line). In case of reaching this level, the downward trend may continue with the next target at the historical support level 1.2646 (blue dotted line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move downward from the level of 1.2818 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target of 1.2721 - a 61.8% pullback level (red dotted line). In case of reaching this level, the downward trend may continue with the next target at the historical support level 1.2646 (blue dotted line).

Another possible scenario is a downward movement with the target at the historical support level 1.2769 (white dashed line). In case of reaching this level, the price may begin to move upward with the target of 1.3019 - a 76.4% pullback level (blue dotted line).

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Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/22/20

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The EUR/USD pair, following the upper part of the side channel 1.1700 // 1.1810 // 1.1910, managed to overcome the average level (1.1810). As a result, there was an acceleration of short positions (sell positions), which led us to approach the level of 1.1755 for the fifth time.

The area of the price level of 1.1755 naturally puts pressure on market participants, where a slowdown occurs, followed by a rebound in the opposite direction.

Based on the data obtained on finding the quote and successive fluctuations, it is worth considering the price rebound from the level of 1.1755. At the same time, we should not miss the moment of considering the breakdown scenario. Nevertheless, the main border of the side channel is not the level of 1.1755, but the level of 1.1700.

Here are the possible market development scenarios:

First, a price rebound from the level of 1.1755.

We saw a natural slowdown in the price around 1.1755 on August 21, August 27, September 9, September 17 and September 21. This slowdown is already visible, but there is still no proper rebound. A rebound will only be considered in this scenario in the direction of the average channel level of 1.1810, in case of holding above 1.1780.

Second, the breakdown of the level of 1.1755.

It is unfortunate that everything is temporary. The trends change, levels break through, and the level of 1.1755 will be broken sooner or later. We should be prepared for this. Now, a price consolidation below 1.1730 with this slowdown will most likely indicate a breakdown of the level of 1.1755, in the direction of the main level of 1.1700.

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On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair showed high activity yesterday, where not only stagnation was broken within the level of 1.3000, the quote first rushed to the low (1.2864) on September 17 and then move all the way to the area of the main support - 1.2770. Thus, we got a full pullback of the downside interest relative to the recent corrective move 1.2770 ---> 1.3000.

In this situation, the area of the 1.2770 level was paid special attention to, since the following price movement will be clear depending on the behavior of participants within it. First of all, a natural rebound is considered, as it was in the previous period. At the same time, it is worthwhile to hedge and prepare for a further decline in case the level breaks down.

Here are the possible market development scenarios:

First, a price rebound from support level of 1.2770.

There is already a slight price pullback from the level of 1.2770. But in case of a full-fledged rebound, a movement in the direction of 1.2885 may occur.

Against this background, we will consider buying deals above 1.2825, in the direction of 1.2870-1.2885.

Second, the breakdown of the level of 1.2770.

The current pullback does not lead to a full-fledged price rebound, and the quote begins to accumulate within the range of 1.2770/1.2820. As a result, there was a price consolidation below 1.2770. The outlook of a downward development is possible in the direction of 1.2620.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 22, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Ethereum Classic Labs is struggling with multiple security breaches and has partnered with ChainSafe and OpenRelay in hopes of increasing protection against 51% of attacks. Ethereum Classic and its Core Dev Team will work with both ChainSafe and OpenRelay to develop and test security responses.

James Wo, founder and president of Ethereum Classic Labs, said the partnership made sense:

"OpenRelay and ChainSafe are well versed in Ethereum Classic, working together will have some of the brightest minds in blockchain, solving 51% of the problem in tandem. The team will bring additional knowledge of Proof-of-Work security systems and test environments."

OpenRelay will assist Ethereum Classic in "developing practical simulations and models for proposed features, establishing a test network infrastructure, and designing and implementing test network tests," while ChainSafe is working on reviewing many security proposals to ensure network security.

Ethereum Classic saw at least three 51% attacks in August alone. These attacks caused, among others exchanges like OKEx to warn Ethereum Classic that it will remove ETC if it doesn't improve its security. The company, determined to improve its security, said regulation could be key to stopping future attacks by restricting hashpower rentals. Apparently, at least two attacks were caused by hashing power borrowed from NiceHash.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has extended the down wave and made a fresh new low at the level of $331.26. The level of $355.24 will now act as a technical resistance for the price and the level of $323.87 will be a technical support. The momentum has decreased as well and now is negative and weak according to the RSI indicator. Moreover, the price is now getting closer to the key demand zone seen between the levels of $305.20 - $321.95. This kind of price action might be the beginning of a deeper pull-back, but the weekly trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $426.36

WR2 - $409.08

WR1 - $387.32

Weekly Pivot - $370.45

WS1 - $348.67

WS2 - $331.18

WS3 - $309.49

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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Rising dollar stumbled over gold

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As the gold and US currency confronted, the advantage remained for the latter. However, experts believe that gold's current decline will be temporary. Analysts believe that it will prove itself in the near future, which will surprise the market with another price growth.

The continuous victory of the gold was interrupted by a slight decline against the backdrop of the dollar. It can be recalled that after the Fed's statements about targeting inflation, the US currency rose briefly. At the same time, the gold tries to enter the upward turn again after gathering its strength.

Yesterday, the futures of the precious metal fell to their lowest level in two weeks. The negative mood on the exchange market and the US dollar's strengthening supports this. At the beginning of this week, the price of gold declined on the spot market to $ 1920 per troy ounce. According to analysts' estimates, the closest strong support level for the indicated metal is around $ 1900 per ounce. Today, it is trading at around $ 1914 per ounce, which greatly worries investors and traders.

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The markets included such a financial factor as the introduction of stimulus measures to support the economy in the cost of gold. During the formation of the August rally, market players were looking forward to the next large-scale financing package, but nothing happened to these incentives. It was expected that if this scenario is implemented, the cost of the "solar" metal will rise, but now it is losing to the dollar in all directions.

Based on the observations of analysts, investors have repeatedly hedged risks with precious metals during the recent rally in securities. However, in view of the long collapse of stock indices, the price of gold has currently fallen significantly. This was due to massive liquidation of long positions in gold. Investors closed longs when exiting shares, which led to a decline in the gold's price.

In the last month of summer, gold reached another historical high, after it overcame the previous August barrier of nine years ago. Analyzing the rate of growth in its price since the beginning of this year, experts record an impressive rise of 23%. This could not be prevented by factors such as the global recession, the spread of COVID-19 and the quantitative easing (QE) programs adopted by central banks.

Experts said that gold is a more profitable instrument than shares of gold mining companies in the long term. Despite the current dominance of the dollar, this metal is not going to slow down. On the contrary, it is constantly trying to rise, which are most often successful.

Therefore, they recommend selling gold during periods of weakening demand and slowing price growth. According to experts, concerns about inflation may not be justified in the near future, and then the gold market expects another decade of falling prices.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 22. COT reports. Pound sellers are one step away from renewing a new

To open long positions in GBP/USD, you need:

If we had problems with selling the British pound in the morning, then the signals to which I mentioned in the afternoon made it possible for us to take a piece of profit from the market. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see where you could enter the market. Recall that in yesterday's forecast, I drew attention to selling the pound after a breakout of the 1.2867 level and testing it from the bottom up, which happened. But, even if you did not have time to enter when this range was initially updated, you could have taken advantage of this chance a second time, which led to a sharper fall towards the low of 1.2777, where I recommended buying the pound immediately on the rebound, and also enabled us to catch around 40 points from the market.

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Bulls need to regain resistance at 1.2867 at the moment, since this will reduce the pressure on the pound. Consolidating above this range, where the moving averages, playing on the side of sellers, are also forming a signal to buy GBP/USD with the main goal of rising towards yesterday's resistance at 1.2962, which is where I recommend taking profits. If the pound is still under pressure, and most likely it will be, buyers will need a lot of strength to protect support at 1.2777. Forming a false breakout there, along with confirming the divergence on the MACD indicator, produces a signal to buy the pound. If no one is active, I recommend postponing long positions until the new lows of 1.2725 and 1.2675 are updated and then you can think about long positions, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 15 showed a reduction in long positions and a large increase in short positions, which indicates market expectations and a high possibility that the pound will fall in the long term, which may be due to uncertainty regarding the conclusion of the Brexit trade deal. And if last week, it was possible to say that the downward momentum may start to gradually slow down, which the market showed us, now the situation is on the side of the pound sellers once again and the pair may succeedingly fall. Short non-commercial positions increased from 33,860 to 41,508 during the reporting week. Long non-commercial positions fell from 46,590 to 43,801. As a result, the non-commercial net position sharply fell to 2,293, against 12,730, a week earlier.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Today, we have the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. His statements may put pressure on the British pound. Therefore, a breakout and settling in the area below support at 1.2777 forms a good signal to sell the pound. However, it is worth paying attention to the divergence on the MACD indicator. In case GBP/USD does not quickly move after settling below the 1.2777 level, it is best to slow down with short positions at the lows and wait for an upward correction in the pair. New areas 1.2725 and 1.2675 will be the bears' main target, which is where I recommend taking profits. If GBP/USD rises in the first half of the day, and this scenario is more acceptable for opening short positions, it is best to wait until resistance is updated at 1.2867 and sell the pound there immediately on a rebound, expecting the resumption of the bear market. The moving averages, which pass slightly above this range, will also come to the rescue. In case bears are not active at 1.2867, it is best to refuse to sell until the 1.2962 high is updated while aiming for a downward correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is underway below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a renewed bearish trend.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower boundary of the indicator in the 1.2777 area will lead to a new wave of decline for the pound. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2867 area will cause the pair to rise.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 22. COT reports. US dollar regains its strength. Bears wait for breakout

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Several excellent signals to sell the European currency appeared yesterday, which brought more than 100 points of profit. Buy positions for the euro were also placed at the end of the day. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down all these entry points. The very first signal to sell the euro appeared after a false breakout formed at the 1.1868 level. The bulls' unsuccessful attempt in the morning to leave the area above this range and a repeated test of this level from the bottom up formed a good point for opening short positions, which caused the pair to fall to a low of 1.1828, where no one was, and afterwards a larger support at 1.1785 was tested, which transformed it to the 1.1779 level. I recommended selling the euro again after the breakout and consolidation below this range. Everything happened by analogy with the first deal. The breakout of 1.1779 and testing this area from the bottom up formed a new entry point to sell. We could only talk about buying on a rebound from 1.1740, which led to a 30-point correction by the day's close.

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Bulls urgently need to regain resistance at 1.1779 at the moment, since the market's direction depends on it. If they manage to gain a foothold above this range, then you can look at long positions and expect the upward correction to continue to the resistance area of 1.1826, where I recommend taking profits. A high of 1.1868 will be a distant goal. If the euro is under pressure again, then forming a false breakout at the 1.1737 level, after updating this week's low and confirming the divergence on the MACD indicator will become an entry point into long positions. Otherwise, I recommend postponing longs until a new local low of 1.1695 has been tested, or you can open them immediately on a rebound from the larger support of 1.1648, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 15 showed a reduction in long non-commercial positions and an increase in short ones, which confirms the downward correction in EUR/USD, which we recently observed. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 248,683 to 230,695, while short non-commercial positions rose from 51,869 to 52,199. The decisions taken by the Federal Reserve last week supported the US dollar. and new problems with the spread of coronavirus infection in the EU do not allow euro buyers to seriously expect large players to return to the market. But do not forget that despite the euro's recent decline, the total non-commercial net position, which slightly decreased over the reporting week, still remained at a positive level. As a result, the non-commercial net position decreased to 178,576 against 196,814 a week earlier.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The bears performed well yesterday and now they will focus on protecting resistance at 1.1779. Failure to settle above this level and the test of the moving averages, which are now on the side of the sellers, form a good signal to sell the euro with the hopes of returning support at 1.1737, for which a rather difficult struggle will take place. Settling below this range and ignoring the divergence on the MACD indicator will lead to a new free fall towards the 1.1695 and 1.1648 lows, which is where I recommend taking profits. A bad report on consumer confidence in the eurozone will help the bears meet this challenge. In case sellers aren't active at 1.1779 in the morning, I recommend postponing short positions and wait until resistance has been tested at 1.1826, where you can open shorts immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the bearish market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.1733 area will lead to a new wave of decline for the euro. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the 1.1795 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 22, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Hackers have been trying for years to crack a Bitcoin wallet containing 69,370 BTC. Unsuccessfully. Many have tried (and are still trying) to get in in hopes of snagging more than $ 750 million worth of BTC. The question is, does this address actually have any balance?

A bitcoin wallet with just over 69,000 BTC is of interest to many who might be interested in its potential content. Anyone who is able to take the challenge has the opportunity to try to get inside. The problem is that no one has "become happy" in the last two years.

It just so happens that this bitcoin wallet contains the seventh largest BTC address in the world. According to cybersecurity expert Alon Gal, who works on Twitter under the pseudonym "UnderTheBreach", hackers have recently tried to get in. The Gaul reported that no one had announced "success" in the case.

According to another assumption, it may be almost impossible to break this wallet. It is quite possible that the wallet is protected by a long, unique and hard-to-break password. In addition, the wallet.dat file can be encrypted using a combination of AES-256-CBC and SHA-512. They are very slow to process, which makes applying brute force to them much more difficult.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has felt out of the ascending channel and made a new local low at the level of $10,262, just ahead of the key short-term support seen at the level of $10,227. The upside momentum had clearly decreased and if the bearish pressure intensify, the market might extend a correction towards the level of $10,000 (intraday support, psychological level) or $9,863 (lower technical support). The weekly trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,186

WR2 - $11,616

WR1 - $11,271

Weekly Pivot - $10,739

WS1 - $10,293

WS2 - $9,807

WS3 - $9,393

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 22, 2020

The pair traded downward on Monday and tested the support level 1.1744 (white thick line). Today, the price may continue to move down. Based on the economic calendar, dollar news is expected at 14:00 and 14:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move downward from the level of 1.1773 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target at the support level 1.1745 (white thick line). If this level is tested, the downward trend may continue with the next target of 1.1690 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move downward from the level of 1.1773 (closing of yesterday's daily candlestick) with the target at the support level 1.1745 (white bold line). If this level is tested, the downward trend may continue with the next target at 1.1690 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line).

Another possible scenario: upon reaching the support level 1.1745 (white thick line), the price may begin to move upwards with the target at 1.1823 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 22, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has broken out from a narrow consolidation zone seen between the levels of 1.2869 - 1.2979 and made a new local low at the level of 1.2775. The immediate technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.2869 and it should temporary stop any bullish attempts. The violation of this line had put bulls in control of the market and another wave up will develop. The intraday technical support is seen at the levels of 1.2786, 1.2768 and 1.2747. Momentum is weak and negative, which supports the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3253

WR2 - 1.3131

WR1 - 1.3027

Weekly Pivot - 1.2896

WS1 - 1.2795

WS2 -1.2660

WS3 - 1.2557

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 22, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has made a false breakout above the trend line and the bearish pressure intensify. A new local low had been made at the level of 1.1731 already and the bears are willing to continue the down wave. The levels of 1.1790, 1.1803 and 1.1813 will now act as an intraday technical resistance for the price, together with the level of 1.1822. The momentum remains weak and negative, so another wave down towards the next target seen at the level of 1.1710 or 1.1696 is anticipated. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2077

WR2 - 1.1988

WR1 - 1.1919

Weekly Pivot - 1.1829

WS1 - 1.1748

WS2 -1.1662

WS3 - 1.1583

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on September 22? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair

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The GBP/USD pair fell yesterday morning and so did the euro. As a result, the price dropped to the previous local low near the 1.2774 level. This milestone for the pound/dollar pair is very important, since it protects it from another significant fall. Let us remind novice traders that since September 1, the pound sterling has fallen in price by 700 points within ten trading days, afterwards it managed to win back 200 points. And for no apparent reason, quotes fell again yesterday and it seems that the 1.2774 level will be overcome almost in any case. This is indicated, firstly, by a weak rebound from this level. Secondly, the fundamental background for the British pound remains so weak that it is quite difficult to expect anything other than a fall. We remind you that the EUR/USD pair continues to trade inside the horizontal channel, that is, there is no fall, as for the pound, now.

Thus, the fundamental background is to blame, particularly that from the UK. Recall that at the beginning of September, it was announced that the next two rounds of talks regarding the Brexit deal, which would take effect on January 1, 2021 and would save the EU and the UK from additional financial losses, had failed. London stubbornly refuses to make concessions, and according to Michel Barnier (the head of the EU negotiating team), Britain does not want to sign an agreement at all. It is difficult to provide a reason, given that it would have been profitable for London to trade freely with the European Union, and not according to the WTO rules. Nevertheless, the fact remains. There is no deal, and it is unlikely that there will be one now. In addition, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson "helped" the pound, as he considered that now is the time to play a new bluff in negotiations with the EU and also hinted that London may violate the agreements on the Northern Ireland border that were reached at the end of last year in its state interests. Naturally, such information immediately caused the pound to fall, since now all major investors and traders are afraid to hold the pound in their hands and invest in the British economy. There is no confidence in the country, which at any moment may violate the principles of international law. So it turns out that there is practically only one road for the pound, to go down.

Possible scenarios for September 22:

1) We still do not recommend buying the pound/dollar pair, since a strong downward trend has appeared at this time. We believe that the quotes will continue to fall, respectively, for the possibility of opening long positions, you should wait until the trend changes to an upward one. To do this, it would be nice to form a trend line or channel, but so far we only have an upward trend line, below which the price successfully settled a few days ago.

2) Sell positions, from our point of view, are much more convenient at the moment. You can open them at this time through a new MACD signal or by closing the price below 1.2774. The closer to the zero mark the MACD indicator turns down, the stronger this signal. Speeches of the heads of the US and British central banks Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey will take place today. These events can affect the mood of traders and the pound/dollar pair's movement during the day.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 22, 2020

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The break below 135.92 yesterday was a deal-breaker. It means that the decline from 142.72 couldn't be a red wave iv/ as red wave i/ and red wave iv/ isn't allowed to overlab. So we have been back to the drawing table looking for alternates count. Currenctly, the pair is declining from 142.72 as being a wave ii/ in a series of waves one's and two's. Under this count, the ongoing wave ii/ can't break below the start of a wave i/ at 131.68.

In the short-term, we will be looking for a final dip to just below 133.51 to complete wave ii/ and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave iii/. A break above minor resistance at 134.55 will be the first indication that wave ii/ has completed, while a break above resistance at 135.33 will confirm wave 2/ being completed and wave iii/ in motion.

R3: 136.00

R2: 135.39

R1: 134.55

Pivot: 134.09

S1: 133.55

S2: 132.85

S3: 132.39

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 133.51 or upon a break above 134.55. If we are able to buy at 133.55 our stop will be placed at 133.00

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 22, 2020

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EUR/JPY is now close to our corrective-target at 122.15 from where we expect the next impulsive rally to take place. In the short-term, we expect minor resistance at 123.66 to be able to cap the upside for the final decline into the low 122-area to complete the corrective decline in wave 2/ and set the stage for the next rally to above the former peak at 127.07.

A break above 123.66 will be the first indication that wave 2/ has been completed already, while a break above 123.98 will confirm that wave 3/ is developing.

R3: 124.30

R2: 123.98

R1: 123.66

Pivot: 123.30

S1: 122.87

S2: 122.53

S3: 122.15

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 123.90 and we will lower our stop to 123.70. We will take profit at 122.25 and revers our position from sold to buy EUR. IF done we will place our stop at 121.85

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 22? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair, as expected, started an upward correction on Monday night, which we warned about in yesterday's evening article. The MACD indicator turned to the upside and this signal could even be used to open longs for the euro, since the price had previously dropped to the lower area of the 1.17-1.19 horizontal channel, in which it is more convenient to consider buying options. In addition, the MACD indicator did not unload, as we feared last night, and began to rise in parallel with the price. Therefore, those traders who opened longs can now keep them open, since there is a high possibility of succeeding growth. In general, the technical picture remains unchanged, not only in recent days, but in recent weeks. Traders have the same 1.17-1.19 horizontal channel to their disposal, within which the euro/dollar pair mainly moves. If traders manage to get the pair out of this channel, then they can count on a new trend to appear. However, so far we do not see any prerequisites for completing the flat.

The fundamentals for the second trading day of the week will likely be fairly mediocre. Today, Federal Chairman Jerome Powell is set to address the US Congress. According to the practice of previous years, we can say that such speeches before the highest bodies of American power rarely carry unexpected information. Moreover, just last week, the results of the Fed meeting were summed up, and Powell had the opportunity to tell the markets everything that is necessary, exclusively on the topic of monetary policy. Therefore, it is unlikely for the Fed chair to say something fundamentally new both today and tomorrow (we can expect another speech from Powell in Congress on Wednesday, but before another committee). Moreover, Powell's rhetoric is likely to be replete with words about the coronavirus and its impact on the American economy. In general, the conclusion is simple: the weaker and dovish Powell's speech is, the more chances that the US dollar will begin to fall (growth of the euro/dollar pair). Moreover, the current technical picture precisely implies this scenario . Not a single macroeconomic report is planned for today either in the United States or in the European Union. We mean important reports. It is unlikely that any of the traders will be seriously interested in a report on consumer confidence in the EU or on sales in the secondary home market in the United States.

Possible scenarios for September 22:

1) Novice traders are recommended to consider buying at this time, since you can expect the pair to move to the upper area from the lower one of the 1.17-1.19 horizontal channel. Especially since the pair lost around 150 points. The upward pullback has already begun and the pair has already passed 40 points from yesterday's lows. We believe that it may continue to move up, and traders who opened long positions yesterday may remain in them with targets at the resistance levels of 1.1791 and 1.1851. At least until the MACD indicator turns down.

2) It does not seem appropriate to consider shorts at this time, since the pair has already gone down 150 points. Therefore, novice traders are recommended to wait until the pair returns to the area of the upper line of the horizontal channel and afterwards, you can consider selling there, or you can also wait for the appearance of a trend channel or trend line inside the horizontal channel, which would determine at least a short-term trend for the pair. In this case, it would still be possible to trade down in the presence of a downward trend line, for example.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 22, 2020

EUR/USD

There was a slight panic in the market on Monday. Due to the development of the second wave of coronavirus in Europe and the United States, investors began to fear the widespread closure of economies, as the UK intends to do from today. The maximum restrictions in England are introduced from the 28th. The British stock index FTSE 100 fell 3.38%. The European EuroStoxx 50 index lost 3.74%, while the US S&P 500 was down -1.16%. Investors started buying the dollar as a defensive currency and the euro fell 68 points.

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The price attacked the lower border of the two-month consolidation range at 1.1760, now it is ready to reach the nearest target at 1.1650. Then (after a local correction), we expect it to fall towards 1.1550.

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The decline occurs without reversal signals on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for the price to settle under 1.1760 and further progress towards the indicated targets.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on September 22, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar has been waiting for signals from foreign markets for a long time, and it received them on Monday. Oil fell 2.77%, copper -2.03%, and the US dollar index rose 0.59%. The Australian dollar was down 65 points.

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The daily chart shows that prices have broken the initial target level of 0.7249 and are now approaching the target level of 0.7110, then to 0.7065, after which a correction is likely, since the Marlin oscillator will be in the oversold zone by that time.

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The price has firmly settled below the 0.7249 level on the four-hour chart. It is possible that the aussie will test the level from below as part of a local correction, but we are waiting for it at the target level of 0.7110. The leading Marlin oscillator does not send a reversal signal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 22, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen traded in a wide range of 88 points yesterday, closing the day with a 6 point gain. The limit will be the 123.6% Fibonacci level on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is in no hurry to turn upwards, therefore, we expect the decline to move towards the target level of 103.75.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price has worked out a triple small convergence according to the Marlin oscillator, its signal line has entered the zone of positive values, and now it is going back to the bears' territory. We expect the pair to fall towards the target level of 103.75.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD September 21: Markets are still wondering if the UK Internal Market Bill will officially be adopted and its consequences

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The construction of a new downward section of the trend continues. The continued decline in quotes suggests that the construction of wave 2 as part of this section has been completed which has taken a rather shortened form. The minimum of the expected wave 1 has not yet been passed so it is not yet possible to make an unambiguous conclusion about the completion of wave 2. Nevertheless, the chart shows very clearly the fall in demand for the British currency in recent weeks. Thus, the downward section of the trend is very likely to continue its construction.

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During the last trading day, the GBP/USD instrument lost about 60 basis points and today it lost another 60. Thus, there are more and more chances that the construction of the expected correction wave 2 or b is completed. If this is true, then the decline in the instrument's quotes will continue with targets located near the 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci levels. The depth of the British Pound's fall depends entirely on the news background.

Despite the fact that it has been three weeks since the beginning of September, when the unfavorable events for the British began, the markets have not lost their desire to continue to get rid of the British currency. The driver of the fall of the British Pound now remains only one scandalous bill which has not even been adopted yet or may not be accepted at all. We are talking about the bill "on the internal market of the UK" which implies a violation of the Brexit agreement with the European Union. However, markets are now in disarray. Despite the fact that the law was approved by the majority of conservatives, it will most likely be adopted by Parliament. It does not imply a momentary violation of the agreement with Brussels. It only gives London the legislative opportunity to do so, guided by the interests of the country. Thus, the law may be adopted tomorrow but, if London violate violate the agreement with the EU is unknown if it will broken at all. According to many experts, Boris Johnson cannot fail to understand the severity of the consequences for the UK if he does violate international law. The British economy is already drained of blood by Brexit, Coronavirus, and quarantine. In addition, from 2021, it is likely that British companies will have to trade with European companies on WTO terms and this is another blow to the British economy. Against this background, the European Union may also impose sanctions against London with trade duties. So far, it looks like Boris Johnson is just bluffing. This is a very common opinion in the foreign exchange market. If this is true, the Pound will get a break.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The Pound-Dollar instrument presumably completed the construction of the upward wave Z and the entire upward section of the trend. At the same time, there is a high probability of building a correction wave 2 or B which could also have already completed its construction near the level of 38.2%. An unsuccessful attempt to break this mark allows the markets to start selling the instrument with targets around 1.2721 and 1.2539, which is equal to 61.8% and 76.4% for Fibonacci, based on the construction of the third wave.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 22. America is preparing for lengthy legal proceedings at the end of the 2020 presidential

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -191.5559

The British pound also spent the second trading day of the week in a downward movement. Thus, at the beginning of the new trading week, demand for the US currency increased significantly. With the British currency, everything is clear. In September 2020, this currency is only getting cheaper mainly due to the actions of the British government and Boris Johnson personally. However, we have already talked about this many times. The reasons for the fall in the British currency yesterday was quite difficult to find. In the States today, there were no important publications, no important speeches, and even the news flow from the White House was quite sparse. Well, the markets could not react so violently to another statement by Donald Trump about "the imminent creation of a vaccine against coronavirus". However, the US dollar has grown and we need to accept this. Sometimes there are situations when there are no visible reasons for the growth of a particular currency, however, the growth itself is there. We remind market participants that in addition to private small traders, there are a large number of major traders on the market (COT reports are just for them). It is these major traders who "rule the ball". Further private small traders can only join the trend that is formed by major players. That's why they always say that you need to trade according to the trend. Thus, it is possible that at the beginning of the new week, major traders began to buy the US currency. This led to its strong strengthening. We also remind you that both the pound and the euro grew for a long time against the dollar and were quite overbought. In the case of the euro, the growth was just very long and strong. In the case of the pound, it was almost groundless, since the economic situation in the UK is not much better than the American one. Thus, in both cases, the strengthening of the US dollar could be expected.

Meanwhile, the number one topic in the United States remains the 2020 presidential election. The issue of elections has taken a very interesting turn in recent days. The fact is that one of the nine Supreme Court Justices of the United States, Ruth Ginsburg, died recently. As usual in America, various speculations immediately began around a rather mournful event. The fact is that in the United States, almost no one believes that the elections will be held quietly and calmly, and most importantly - honestly. Most experts and political scientists believe that none of the candidates will accept defeat and are almost guaranteed to accuse the opposite side of fraud. Recall that the Democrats have won the right to vote by mail. At the same time, the Trump electorate is expected to vote in reality. Consequently, a sharp increase in Trump's position is expected first, after which "postal votes" will be counted for at least a few days. Trump accuses Democrats of simply printing the number of ballots they need to win. Thus, there is a high probability that the case of the presidential election will end up in court that lost one of its nine judges the other day. With the election still 6 weeks away, Donald Trump is already pushing to appoint a new judge to replace Ms. Ginsburg. Further, Joe Biden and the Democratic Party oppose such a decision, because they believe that elections should be held first. And as soon as we see a clash of interests, we can immediately assume a "behind-the-scenes game". Since the 2020 election is highly likely to end in court, every presidential candidate needs to have support in this very court. As we remember, there are only nine judges, and four of them are Democrats and five are Republicans. Although Donald Trump has the advantage here, Chief Justice Roberts has recently voted against any decisions of the current president. It turns out that Joe Biden has a margin of one vote at this time - 5:4. However, with the death of Judge Ginsburg, who was a Democrat, the opportunity opened up for Trump to appoint "his" judge to the vacant position, as loyal as possible to him. Thus, it is clear why Trump now wants to quickly appoint a new judge, and the Democrats are opposed. Some experts still recall the "gentleman's rules" that once operated in high political circles. However, all as one note that now there is a full-scale war for power in America, where there is no place for any concessions and displays of honor. Thus, the intrigue of the coming weeks shifts to the US Supreme Court and the decision of Congress to appoint a new judge. We just note once again that the topic of elections in America is the most important at this time. All traders can see for themselves what a battle is raging around the president's chair. Any methods are used, and each side tries to use any event to its advantage.

So far, the US dollar has not reacted to events related to the elections. However, it should be understood that this is a "long-playing" topic. We have repeatedly said that the international policy of this country over the next four years depends on who becomes the new president of the United States. And as Donald Trump showed us, in four years you can have time to accelerate the economy to unthinkable values and lose all progress, sliding into the worst recession in the last hundred years. That is why China, for example, actively supports Joe Biden, because it believes that it will be much easier to negotiate with him, while Trump has already announced the continuation of the war against Beijing. Also, the American economy depends on who will become the next president of the country, for which it is now extremely important to do without new government mistakes. Further, the country's economy directly depends on the "coronavirus" epidemic, the fight against which Donald Trump lost outright (still rating the actions of his administration at "5+"). So this is an extremely important question.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 132 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Tuesday, September 22, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2658 and 1.2922. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top signals the beginning of an upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2756

S2 – 1.2695

S3 – 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2817

R2 – 1.2878

R3 – 1.2939

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair resumed a strong downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today, it is recommended to keep open short positions with targets of 1.2756 and 1.2695 as long as the price is below the moving average and the Heiken Ashi is directed downward. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with targets of 1.3000 and 1.3062 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 22. Christine Lagarde is worried about the high euro. The ECB is going to study the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -182.1159

The EUR/USD pair spent the first trading day in fairly active trading, which is not typical for Mondays. The US currency began to strengthen almost in the morning and rose by almost 150 points against the euro during the day. It is still quite difficult to say what caused such a strong growth of the US currency. There is no news about the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the moment. This was the only macroeconomic event on Monday. Thus, the euro/dollar pair simply collapsed and at the same time remained inside the side channel of $ 1.17- $ 1.19, which we have been writing about for almost two months. Thus, from a technical point of view, the situation in the foreign exchange market has not changed completely. Further, the currency pair can already turn up today and start an upward movement inside the same side channel to its upper line of 1.1900. The most important thing is that the general fundamental background does not change for the pair. In America, things are still very bad. This applies to both the political and epidemiological crisis. Fortunately, they managed to solve the problems of the social crisis (mass protests and rallies after two cases of racism by white American police officers), however, the economic crisis did not go away. In general, the situation in America has not improved much in recent weeks.

In the European Union, everything is much quieter and calmer. In recent weeks, we can only highlight the meeting of the European Central Bank, however, no important decisions have been made, and no important theses were voiced. However, it is well known that the ECB is very afraid of the current high exchange rate of the European currency. This was first mentioned a few weeks ago by the bank's chief economist, Philip Lane. Nothing has changed since then. Now Christine Lagarde is also talking about the euro exchange rate. "It is clear that the strengthening of the euro plays a significant role in various areas, and as for monetary policy, it puts downward pressure on the price level," Lagarde said. "We are very attentive to the growth of the euro and take this factor into account when determining monetary policy," the head of the ECB added.

At the same time, it was reported that the ECB is going to study the economic consequences of the emergency economic assistance program PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) to re-evaluate its validity. The European regulator admits that some parameters of the PEPP program may be transferred to other programs to stimulate the economy. The debate is expected to take place inside the ECB next month.

There was also some news from the White House on Monday. Donald Trump again talked about creating a vaccine and, according to him, "it will be ready long before the end of the year, maybe even by the end of October". The US President believes that Pfizer's vaccine, which is closest to the end of clinical trials, will be the first to be released. The US President also said that he gives an "excellent" rating for his administration's response to the "coronavirus", despite 200,000 deaths from this disease in the US. "We did a phenomenal job, not just a good job, but a phenomenal job. Except for public relations, because there is fake news," Trump said.

At the same time, in the run-up to the presidential election, many experts continue to evaluate the four years of Donald Trump's presidency. One of the main achievements of Trump (the rise of the economy, the labor market) was easily leveled by the "coronavirus". The second major achievement (agreeing to a trade deal with China) is just a beautiful piece of paper. You don't need to be a serious analyst to see a direct and simple relationship. During the entire administration of Donald Trump, the US trade deficit has only increased. In other words, it doesn't matter what deal was signed with Beijing. The trade deficit is still increasing. However, China's trade balance is positive (who would doubt it). Further, it has only increased over the past 4 years. That is, in fact, Trump only hurt himself in the trade war with China. At least, he did not manage to achieve any positive results. Besides, the level of public debt has also increased.

It also became known about new social surveys and studies that are conducted in the States by everyone who is not lazy. According to them, Biden is still ahead of Trump by 8-10%. It is worth noting that any poll has a certain margin of error. Therefore, 8% in practice can be 10%. Thus, most studies suggest that the situation has not changed at all over the past few months.

As a result, we have the same technical picture as before. The euro/dollar pair continues to trade in a 200-point wide side channel. Even a fairly serious drop in quotes today does not change the essence of the matter at all. The fundamental background also remains the same. Even the Fed and ECB meetings, as well as the speeches of Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde, could not change it. Because in principle, everything remains the same as it was in the last six months. In the first place in terms of significance, the "coronavirus" epidemic continues to stand. The second "wave" has already officially started in Spain, France, and the UK. This applies to European countries. In America, the first wave did not end yet. Thus, the economies of the European Union and the United States are recovering to the extent of their capabilities, however, there is no question of full recovery before the complete victory over the coronavirus. Thus, with the arrival of the cold season, the whole world may face a new round of the pandemic. The epidemic can be tougher and stronger, and whatever it is, it is obvious that this time it will leave its mark on the economy of every country in the world. And in the States, meanwhile, everyone continues to prepare for the elections. This is probably an even more significant topic across the ocean than the "coronavirus", which everyone has somehow forgotten about recently.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 22 is 87 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1666 and 1.1841. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back up signals a round of upward movement in the remaining side channel of $ 1.17 - $ 1.19.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1658

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1780

R2 – 1.1841

R3 – 1.1902

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is fixed below the moving average line but continues to trade in the side channel. Thus, formally, we can now consider short positions with targets of 1.1719 and 1.1666 and keep them open until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward. It is recommended to re-consider options for opening long positions if the pair is fixed above the moving average with a target of about 1.1902.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com