Daily analysis of USD/JPY for July 10, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair confirmed that 113.97 has been breached after the pair closed above it last week. This supports our expectations for a further bullish trend on the short-term basis. The price moves within the bullish channel that is displayed in the above chart, waiting for visiting 116.00 level as the next target level. Therefore, we will be waiting for a further rise in the upcoming sessions supported by the EMA50, taking into consideration that breaking 113.97 and then 113.15 levels will stop the expected rise and will push the price to turn to the downside. The expected trading range for today is between 113.15 support and 115.30 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 10, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY price kept its positive stability near 147.65 level. Looking at the chart, we notice the pair's attempt to form a double top pattern, which supports the continuation of the overall bullish in the short term. We expect targeting 38.2% at 150.95 by a breach. The continuation of the positive pressure will make it head for new upward targets from 152.75. If stochastic surpasses the overbought level, it might force the price to provide intraday sideways trading until the pair gathers the bullish momentum. This will simplify the required breach and then will hit the above-mentioned targets. The expected trading range for today is between 146.10 and 149.40

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Daily analysis of Gold for July 10, 2017

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Overview

Gold price managed to hit our expected target at 1,208.92 and has settled there, while stochastic has reached the oversold levels. This forms a positive background that could enable the price to recover in the nearest sessions, waiting for testing 1,229.32 level initially. Therefore, the bullish bias will be preferred for today on condition of holding above 1,208.92 level. Breaking this level will push the price to target 1,188.52 directly, while breaching 1,229.32 will extend gold gains to reach 1,254.56 on the short-term basis. The expected trading range for today is between 1,200.00 support and 1,235.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for July 10, 2017

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Overview

Silver price has been able to hit our expected target at 15.49. Please be aware that the metal began the week with a bearish bias to press and is moving below that level now. This provides signals for further losses on the longer-term basis, easing the way to the previously recorded bottom at 13.75. Therefore, the bearish trend will remain valid in the upcoming sessions, especially after the price made a daily close below 15.49. We should take into consideration that breaching this level and holding above it will open the way towrdas attempts to regain the recent losses and achieve positive targets that begin at 16.56. The expected trading range for today is between 15.20 support and 15.60 resistance.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 10, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. The pair is trading above both 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 222,000 in June, higher than +173,000 expected and +138,000 in May. Jobless rate rose slightly to 4.4% from 4.3% in May, while average hourly earnings gained 0.2% on month and +2.5% on year.

To sum up, as long as 113.85 is not broken, look for a further rise to 114.65 and even to 114.90 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended above 113.85 with a target at 114.65.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position while the price below the pivot point is a sign for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : BUY , Stop Loss: 113.85, Take Profit: 114.65

Resistance levels: 114.65, 114.90, and 115.35

Support levels: 113.50,113.10, and 112.65

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 10, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Although the pair broke below the 20-period moving average, it is still trading above the rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role. The relative strength index is mixed with bullish bias. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Therefore, above 0.9625, look for a rebound to 0.9700 and even to 0.9730 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point; the present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9625, Take Profit: 0.9700

Resistance levels: 0.9700, 0.9730, and 0.9775

Support levels: 0.9605, 0.9590, and 0.9545

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 10, 2017

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Our target which we set on 6th July has been hit and the pair is expected to follow its upside movement. The pair remains supported by both 20-period and 50-period moving averages, and is looking for a higher top. The 20-period moving average stands firmly above the 50-period moving average, and the relative strength index is also above its neutrality area at 50.

As long as 146.45 is not broken down, a further advance is preferred with 147.60 and 148.00 as targets.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, a short position is recommended below 146.45 with the target at 146.00.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and when it is below pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 146.00, Take Profit: 147.30.

Resistance levels: 147.60, 148.00, and 148.70

Support levels: 146.00, 145.55, and 145.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 10, 2017

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There is a little movement in the market today after the announcement of non-farm payroll. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 0.7290, which should limit the upside potential. Relative strength index is capped by a bearish trend line since July 7 and calls for a further downside.

To sum up, as long as 0.7290 is not surpassed, look for a new decline to 0.7255 and 0.7240 in extension.

Strategy: SELL Stop Loss: 0.7290. Take Profit: 0.7255 and 0.7240

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which indicates the bullish position. If it is below the pivot points, it indicates the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7305, 0.7320, and 0.7345

Support levels: 0.7255, 0.7240, and 0.7225

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EUR/USD analysis for July 10, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1381. Anyway, according to the 15M time frame, I found a successful test of Friday's low at the price of 1.1379, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a testing of the diagonal upward trendline, which is another sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. Upward targets are set at the price of 1.1415 and 1.1425.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1407

R2: 1.1415

R3: 1.1420

Support levels:

S1: 1.1395

S2: 1.1390

S3: 1.1380

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Is GBP/USD preparing for a nice bounce? | Daily Video Technical Analysis | 10th July 2017

Do you think GBPUSD is poised for a nice bounce?

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/NZD for July 10, 2017

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Wave summary:

Nothing is happening here. EUR/NZD remains locked inside a narrow trading-range between 1.5509 - 1.5712. Ideally we will see a break above resistance at 1.5712 for a continuation higher towards 1.6235 and above.

Trading recommndation:

We are long EUR from 1.5645 with stop placed at 1.5215. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5712 and place a stop at 1.5500

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/JPY for July 10, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/JPY continues to rally as expected and is headed for a test of the 131.21 target Once this target has been reached, we should be looking for a correction back down to at least 127.97.

Trading recommendation:

Look for a possible selling opportunity near 131.21

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Analysis of Gold for July 10, 2017

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,204.83. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found a fake breakout of Friday's low at the price of $1,207.00, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscilator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities today. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,213.50 and $1,219.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,210.50

R2: $1,215.00

R3: $1,218.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,203.00

S2: 1,200.00

S3: $1,195.50

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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USD/CHF profit target is reached perfectly again, remain bullish for a further rise

The price has bounced up absolutely perfectly from our buying level and has reached our profit target. We remain bullish looking to buy above 0.9621 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a further push up to at least 0.9682 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing nice support above 2.7% where we have seen a nice bounce from and also good upside potential.

Correlation Analysis: EUR/USD and USD/CHF are strongly negatively correlated. Hence it is good that we expect a bounce on USD/CHF and a drop on EUR/USD as this shows that they are moving in tandem.

Buy above 0.9621. Stop loss is at 0.9593. Take profit is at 0.9682.

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AUD/USD is bouncing up nicely from support, remain bullish

The price has started to bounce up nicely from our buying level. We prepare to buy above 0.7577 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, bullish divergence) for a bounce up to at least 0.7642 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing a nice bounce above 4% with good upside potential. A recent bullish divergence also signals that a strong bounce is impending.

Buy above 0.7577. Stop loss is at 0.7556. Take profit isat 0.7642.

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AUD/JPY bounced up perfectly and approaching profit target, prepare to sell

The price has bounced up absolutely perfectly from our buying area and is fast approaching our profit target. We prepare to sell below 86.97 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, Elliott wave theory) for a drop down towards 85.74 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below 98% and we expect a drop from this level.

Sell below 86.97. Stop loss at 87.70. Take profit at 85.74.

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USD/JPY prepare to sell on major resistance

The price is approaching major resistance at 114.32 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level to push the price down to at least 111.77 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% and we expect a drop from this level soon.

Sell below 114.32. Stop loss is at 115.09. Take profit is at 111.77.

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Trading plan 10 - 14/07/2017

Trading plan 10 - 14/07/2017

General picture: The trend against the dollar (except for the yen), "Testimony" of the Fed Chairman on July 12.

The US employment report did not give a strong movement in currencies (except for the yen). Data on employment in the US for June came out strong, above the forecast of 222 K, this is the strongest report in 4 months. The US market seems to be ready for a new wave of growth. Oil does not grow.

Several smeared picture of unemployment in the Unites States, rose unexpectedly from 4.3% to 4.4%

The main pairs are ready to continue the trend against the dollar (euro, pound, franc, Australian). The yen is stubbornly falling towards the dollar and has practically reached an important resistance level of 114.40

The only important event of the week is the report of the Fed Chairman Yellen before the Congress on July 12 and 13. At the same time on July 12, Yellen will deliver a preliminary document. Everyone is waiting for clarity when the Fed starts withdrawing liquidity from the market.

We expect growth in the euro against the dollar, pound, franc, Australian and the growth of the dollar against the yen.

EUR / USD

Key points: Top 1.1445; Down 1.1310 - Breakthrough of these levels will open the way for movement.

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GBP / USD

Purchase. Cancel break down 1.2590

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USD / CHF

Sale. Cancel breakthrough top 0.9700

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USD / JPY

Purchases, but only after a significant rollback of 112.80.

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Global macro overview for 10/07/2017

Global macro overview for 10/07/2017:

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintains his upbeat view on Japanese economic outlook. The main focus of Kuroda is consumer prices and economic growth and at the opening of the BoJ quarterly branch managers' meeting he said: "The year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (all items less fresh food) is likely to continue on an uptrend and increase toward 2%, due mainly to an improvement in the output gap and a rise in medium- to long-term inflation expectations". Moreover, he is not only optimistic about CPI as he sees the whole Japanese economy is on the verge of turning toward a moderate expansion.

The latest data indicated that Japan's national average core CPI (excluding fresh food but including energy prices) increased 0.4% on a yearly basis in May and it was the fifth straight year-on-year rise after +0.3% in April and +0.2% in March. Nevertheless, the BoJ inflationary target was not met yet as it was set at the level of 2.0%, so in this situation, BoJ will continue expanding the monetary base until core CPI exceeds 2.0% and stays above the target in a stable manner. The policy adjustments will have an appropriate manner and they will take into account the overall developments in the Japanese economic activity, financial conditions, and prices.

The next BoJ meeting is scheduled on July 19-20 and during this meeting, the BoJ will update the medium-term growth projections, inflation projections and risk analysis. With the current data on focus, the BoJ is expected to lower its inflation forecasts below 2.0% and even possibly extend the time of achieving this lower target sometime in 2018. If the market participants will strat to price in such an outcome of the BoJ meeting, the Japanese Yen will be weakening further across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The market is trading inside of an upwards channel, very close to the recent swing highs at the level of 148.07. There is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator, so a corrective pullback towards the next technical support at the level of 145.92 is currently expected.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 10, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

Currently, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1300) until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Any bullish breakout above 1.1300 will probably liberate a quick bullish advance towards 1.1495 and 1.1600.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where the price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recently, the price levels around 1.1280-1.1295 stood as an intraday resistance where recent bearish correction was initiated towards 1.1120.

The evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.1120 where the current bullish movement towards 1.1400 was initiated.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further advance towards 1.1415 (Daily Supply-Zone) where a valid SELL entry can be offered if the current bearish rejection is maintained.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1260-1.1130 stands as a prominent DEMAND zone to be watched for bullish rejection.

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Global macro overview for 07/07/2017

Forex analysis review
Global macro overview for 07/07/2017

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 10, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400. A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection was expressed on June 14.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Risky traders could have a valid SELL entry at retesting of the price level of 0.7310. S/L should be placed above 0.7400.

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7230 then 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) for a valid SELL position.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Global macro overview for 10/07/2017

Global macro overview for 10/07/2017:

The US nonfarm payroll data were mixed. They showed the US economy added 222k jobs in June, which was more than both May's figure and the consensus. The unemployment rate jumped from 4.3% to 4.4% as labour force growth exceeded employment growth. Furthermore, the underemployment (U6) number at 8.6% versus 9.4% in January underlines the improvements in the health of the labour market seen in the first six months of 2017. The most anticipated data of average hourly earnings remained unchanged from May's reading. This is why the US Dollar traded in a volatile market, indicating the bears and bulls were not on the same page as the market traded in a tight range late session.

The current FED's point of view is a strong belief in the Phillips Curve: the tight labour market should be sufficient to push wage growth and inflation higher eventually. This is why the FED keeps hiking the interest rates despite the fact that unemployment and wage growth are low in parallel. Moreover, the FED policymakers will not back off from their earlier hints and announcements, so global investors might expect a balance sheet reduction in September ('quantitative tightening') and one more interest rate hike in December. From that point of view, the US Dollar is set to appreciate across the board soon.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. So far the bull camp has failed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 96.51 and it is currently trading around the important support at the level of 95.91. In a case of a breakout lower, the next technical support is seen at the level of 95.47.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 10, 2017

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend although for the last couple of sessions we could be making at least a short-term low. I believe the upside has more potential than looking for the bearish side.

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The Dollar index has retraced 61.8% of the recent rise from 95.50 to 96.50. Price remains below the 4-hour Kumo. Trend remains bearish. However the recent low could be the start of a new sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Important short-term resistance is at 96.30-96.50. Breaking it will be the first important sign of a reversal.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

The weekly chart remains bearish. Price is inside a bearish channel and below the weekly Kumo. However I believe we should expect a strong bounce towards 98.50-99. I believe we should bounce soon towards the lower Cloud boundary and the upper channel boundary.

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Technical analysis of gold for July 10, 2017

Gold price remains in a bearish trend. Price got rejected at the resistance level of $1,230 last week and reversed and made a new lower low. We are now entering an area where Gold price could make an important long-term low.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price is trading inside a bearish channel and below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Trend is clearly bearish. However there are divergence signs. Important short-term resistance is at $1,230. Support is at $1,200.

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Black line - long-term resistance trend line

Blue line - long-term support trend line

Gold weekly candle has broken below the weekly Kumo. This is bearish sign. However the RSI (5) has entered oversold levels and bears should be cautious. Gold price could continue lower towards $1,170-80 but I believe we have entered a price range where we can see a long-term reversal.

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Trading plan for 10/07/2017

Trading plan for 10/07/2017:

It looks like a quiet start of the week on the forex market. Some move up has been noticed only with USD/JPY pair as it is approaching the May high around 114.30 after Governor Kuroda's words about the need to continue loosening politics. EUR/USD is at 1.1405, GBP/USD is back above 1.2900. On Wall Street the trading week ended with a boost, so a good sentiment also prevails today on the exchanges in Hong Kong and Tokyo.

On Monday 10th of July, the event calendar is very light in important economic releases except for Trade Balance data from Germany and Sentix Investors Confidence data from Eurozone.

EUR/USD analysis for 10/07/2017:

The Sentix Investor Confidence Index is scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and market participants expect a slight decrease in sentiment from 28.4 points to 28.1 points. Nevertheless, today's Sentix Investor Confidence for the Eurozone is expected to hold close to its highest level in a decade, so it will affirm and support that the European growth has not only picked up from last year, but it's also sustaining a faster pace. Other economic data, that were released recently from the Eurozone support this view as well: PMI's were better than expected and Retail PMI increased to its highest level in nearly two years. Moreover, all the economic indicators are pointing out to better than expected GDP as well. For example, the Euro-Coin Indicator is currently projecting a 0.6% increase for the second quarter which will at least match the first quarter figures.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H1 timeframe. The important local top had been established at the level of 1.1444, but if the data will beat the expectations, the top might be challenged again. This scenario would be valid as long as the technical support at the level of 1.1378 is not violated. Otherwise, the next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1355.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil bounces towards resistance

The price of Crude Oil bounced a little after making a local low at the level of $43.79. Nevertheless, the bounce seems to be limited to the level of $44.61 so far. There is still a chance of a bigger bounce as the market conditions look oversold, but the momentum indicator clearly points to the downside.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY on highs

The USD/JPY pair is trading close to its two months high around the level of 114.37. Nevertheless, on the H4 time frame there are a visible, multiple bearish divergences both on momentum and stochastic indicator. This might suggest a temporary pullback from the overbought levels and a test of the technical support at the level of 113.68.

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Dollar Remains Weak

The report for the US labor market, despite being positive, again left more questions than answers.

Meanwhile, the apparently extended weak trend of the average wage growth was also noted.

An in-depth analysis of the labor market shows that this assessment is fairly objective.

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Thus, the employment report, in general, is positive, if we assume that the Fed's view will verify itself and inflation will rise by the end of the year.

While the dollar received a positive signal, it is clearly not enough to expect a change in sentiment.

Thus, the dollar continues to be under pressure until the appearance of signals that indicate the achievement of agreements on the future of reforms and the budget financing.

Expectations for the Fed's position are also becoming clearer. It is unlikely that the Fed will decide to hike the rate at the September meeting, the market is more convinced that the decision on this matter will be postponed until December. At the same time, the emergence of the first details regarding the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet increases the chance that policymakers will announce the start of the program at the September meeting.

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It is evident that in the remaining two months, the issue of both the state level and the tax reform will be resolved, and the beginning of this process will mean a trend reversal in favor of the dollar bulls.

In order to gain extra points for the confrontation in Congress, Trump needs to resolve a number of foreign policy issues. The long-awaited meeting between Trump and Putin on the sidelines of the G20 summit is the first step in this direction. While analysts cautiously evaluate the outcome of the first talks that lasted more than two hours instead of the planned 35 minutes, but if our estimates are correct, then soon we will see the first real results- reducing tensions and boosting positive sentiment in the financial markets.

Nevertheless, all of these factors apply not only to the near-term but also to the future. This week, the dollar will continue to lose ground against the majority of its competitors. A pause in raising interest rates and domestic political tension will not allow the dollar to regain its initiative.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 10, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Sentix Investor Confidence and German Trade Balance. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Consumer Credit m/m and Labor Market Conditions Index m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1457.

Strong Resistance:1.1451.

Original Resistance: 1.1440.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1429.

Target Inner Area: 1.1404.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1377.

Original Support: 1.1368.

Strong Support: 1.1356.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1350.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 10, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Current Account, Core Machinery Orders m/m, and Bank Lending y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Consumer Credit m/m and Labor Market Conditions Index m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.73.

Resistance. 2: 114.50.

Resistance. 1: 114.28.

Support. 1: 114.00.

Support. 2: 113.78.

Support. 3: 113.56.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Mark Carney hurried: pound under pressure

Eurozone

The euro ended the week on a positive note. In the absence of significant macroeconomic news, investors are beginning to shift their focus on the rhetoric of top ECB officials who are becoming more aggressive. The policy stimulus against the background of rapid economic growth is nearing the end, in this the market is almost sure.

On Monday, the Sentix investor confidence indicator will be released which is expected to confirm the positive changes in the euro area. On Wednesday, data on the industrial production will be published while on Thursday, the report on German consumer inflation will be announced. In general, the week is expected to be calm. Important publications of macroeconomic data are not planned and the favorite will still be the euro and dollar pair.

The attempt to overcome resistance at 1.1450 remains likely.

United Kingdom

The British pound fell to a 9-day low after a number of macroeconomic indicators were published. Industrial production in May declined by 0.1%. Despite experts forecasting a 0.3% year-to-year increase, the index could not get out of the negative zone with a decrease of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the manufacturing industry lost 0.4% which surprised the market.

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An additional blow was the trade balance report. The deficit once again rose in May, this time to 11.9 billion pounds, an amount that is well above the last month's 10.6 billion. The analysts forecast turned out to be too optimistic.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimated the UK's GDP growth to be at 0.3% in the second quarter which is the same recorded growth rate in the first quarter. Thus, economic growth remains below the long-term trend goal of 0.6%, which may call into question the Bank of England's commitment in scaling back stimulus programs.

The pound was significantly hit. The data shows that the expected recovery in the second quarter did not happen and a strong depreciation of the national currency has not led to a surge in activity in the real economy. Of course, the industrial production growth rate is not the main factor in the economic stability in the post-industrial way of life with the level of consumer demand being much more important. The Bank of England may have to find arguments to start rolling incentive policies. At the same time, Mark Carney's activities in recent weeks where he repeated the likelihood of hiking interest rates earlier than expected can be regarded by the market as an attempt to slow down inflation in a weak economy. How investors will react and whether the pound will find the strength to return to its growth path are events that will show in the upcoming week.

The key data for the pound will be seen on Wednesday when the report on employment will be released. The rate of wage growth will also be published on this day. In light of recent data, wage growth rates can also be a key factor in assessing the pound's prospects. Prior to the data release, the pound did not have an explicit driver. It will start the week in search of a new idea.

Oil and ruble

Oil prices are in a downward trend. There are almost no factors capable of turning the market in favor of the bulls. The search for balance has obviously dragged on.

For the ruble, the situation worsens. Published on Thursday, the inflation report was a surprise to analysts, Inflation in June rose by 0.6% against the forecast of 0.4%. The annual growth was at 4.4%, surpassing the 4.2% prediction. According to analysts, the rising inflation is caused by the cold weather which led to an increase in cost of agricultural products, gasoline prices, and tariffs for passenger transport and tourist services.

Adding to this noticeable drop in stock market is the growing doubts that the Bank of Russia will continue to maintain the policy of reducing interest rates against the background of rising inflation and consistent lower-than-expected oil prices. These factors put pressure on the ruble which is finding it increasingly difficult to find reasons for further strengthening. Under the current conditions, the probability of moving to 61.00/08 followed by an exit to the growth trajectory of 64.50 which looks much higher than a week ago.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 10, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair got corrected lower from Monday to Wednesday and then moved upwards on Thursday, to close just below the resistance line at 1.1400 on Friday. The outlook on the EUR/USD is bullish for this week, and further bullish movement may help price attain additional resistance lines at 1.1450, 1.1500 and 1.1550.

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USD/CHF: This pair made some bullish effort in the first few days of last week, but that was not significant enough to result in invalidation of the extant bearish bias. The price was corrected lower on Thursday to emphasize the presence of bears. The outlook on USD is bearish for this week, and as long as the EUR/USD goes up, the USD/CHF cannot be expected to come down.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is bearish in the shorter-term and bullish in the longer-term. Price lost about 110 pips, to close below the distribution territory at 1.2900. This week, there is a strong bullish outlook on GBP pairs, and as such, the Cable could rally strongly, reaching the distribution territories at 1.2900, 1.2950 and 1.3000, which were all previously attained. The market could even go beyond those distribution territories.

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USD/JPY: Since June 14, the USD/JPY has gained about 510 pips, moving upwards perpetually. Price is now close to the supply level at 114.00, and it would soon be breached to the upside, owing to the strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. The initial targets this week are located at the supply levels of 114.50 and 115.00. However, that does not rule out an eventual bearish run, since the outlook for this month is bearish.

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EUR/JPY: The market moved sideways in the first few days of last week, before moving further upwards. Since June 15, the market has gained about 740 pips, closing close to the supply zone at 130.00 on Friday. Once the supply zone is breached to the upside, the price would target other supply zones at 130.50, 131.00 and 131.50. There is also a possibility of a reversal, but that would not happen as long as EUR is strong.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 10, 2017

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.2861. The first support level is currently seen at 1.2861, the price is moving in a bullish channel now.
  • Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.2861, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
  • This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.2861 and 1.3029.
  • So, the support is seen at 1.2861, while daily resistance is found at 1.3029. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.2861.
  • In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.2861with the first target at the level of 1.3029; and continue towards 1.3075 in coming days.
  • On the other hand, if the GBP/USD pair succeeds to break through the support level of 1.2861 today, the market will decline further to 1.2756.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 10, 2017

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Overview:

  • On the one-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair bullish trend from the support level of 1.1340. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.1340, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.1340. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.1340/1.1380. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.1340) with the first target at the level of 1.1444. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.1444) to test it. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.1444, then the trend will continue towards the next objective at the 1.1500 price. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.1307.
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 10, 2017

The greenback continues to find a bottom around 95.77 and it will try to test the 200 SMA at H1 chart in order to break higher. However, as long as it stays below that moving average, USDX will try to look for the 95.10 level in the short-term and it would happen after a breakout below 95.77. MACD indicator is turning flat, calling for sideways.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.77 / 97.20

H1 chart's support levels: 96.38 / 95.77

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 95.77, take profit is at 95.10 and stop loss is at 96.42.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 10, 2017

The pair doesn't have a clear direction in the short-term, despite it's consolidating the price action below the 200 SMA at H1 chart. To the downside, all focus is pointing to the support zone of 1.2756, but we expect that a recovery takes place in order to re-test the psychological level of 1.3000. MACD indicator is supporting the bullish bias, as it's turning to the positive territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3011 / 1.3105

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2923 / 1.2756

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3011, take profit is at 1.3105 and stop loss is at 1.2918.

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