GBP/USD analysis for June 14, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2735. The analysis from yesterday is still active. According to the 4H time frame, I found the bullish Wolfe Wave pattern and a potential double bottom formation, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potetnial buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the prcie of 1.3000 and 1.3050.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2795

R2: 1.2840

R3: 1.2915

Support levels:

S1: 1.2675

S2: 1.2600

S3: 1.2555

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 14, 2017

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Overview:

  • As expected, the NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7205. Since the trend is above this level, the market is still in an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend is still strong above the moving average (100). The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.7159-0.7205 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7250. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.7250, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7305 in order to test the daily resistance 2. On the other hand, if the NZD/USD pair succeeds to break through the support level of 0.7122 today, the market will decline further to 0.7057. It is recommended to set your stop loss at 0.7110. Also, it should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.7344 on the H4 chart.
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EUR/USD analysis for June 14, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1203. They analysis from yesterday is still active. According to the H1 time frame, I found the bullish Wolfe Wave pattern and hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the prices of 1.1350 and 1.1400.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1220

R2: 1.1223

R3: 1.1225

Support levels:

S1: 1.1214

S2: 1.1212

S3: 1.1210

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 14, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has traded in a downwards from the level of 0.9733 since two days. The market seems stable for that there are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 0.9620 or lower. The bottom price is seen at 0.9620. The trend has rebounded from the bottom of 0.9620 towards the level of 0.9716. So, the strong resistance has already formed at the level of 0.9733 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9733, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9733 (the level of 0.9733 coincides with a ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci). Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario at this phase. Hence, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9733 so it will be good to sell at 0.9733 with the first target of 0.9620. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9560. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9560. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9803 (resistance 2).
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Global macro overview for 14/06/2017

Global macro overview for 14/06/2017:

The UK job market data has disappointed global investors today. The Claimant Change count (the number of individuals who are out of work and who are claiming some sort of unemployment benefit) increased 7.3K in May from a revised increase of 22K in the previous month and lower than the expected increase of around 12K, but the unemployment rate was steady at the level of 4.6% and the average earnings index rose by 2.1% on a quarterly basis, down from the previous gain of 2.1%. The labor market data are a big disappointment given the apparent slowdown in wage growth, which is particularly worrying due to the rising inflationary pressures. The less than expected growth of applications for the unemployed is still not enough to lift the market sentiment today as the average earnings data will continue to have an important impact on the British pound, especially given the impact on consumer spending and the Bank of England policy.

With the earning weak like this, the Bank Of England will be very reluctant to raise its interest rates anytime soon. Moreover, the decision to hike might be postponed even further if the labor market conditions get worse and the consumer spending will decline. These expectations and the recent political uncertainty developments in the UK regarding the Brexit negotiations might further undermine the sterling and depreciate it even more in the near term.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The false breakout above the technical resistance zone resulted in a reversal candle in form of a Doji/Shooting Star on the H4 time frame. Despite the oversold trading conditions, the bias remains bearish and the next support is seen at the level of 1.2707 and 1.2633.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 14, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair has moved sideways so far this week in what can be called a tight consolidation. The price is now between the resistance line at 1.1250 and the support line at 1.1150. Today or tomorrow, the price would either go above the resistance line at 1.1250 or below the support line at 1.1150.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF did not do anything significant on June 13, 2017. Some fundamental figures, which will impact the market, are expected to be released today. This would create craved volatility as the price probably starts going downwards. The pair cannot go up unless EUR/USD crashes.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is currently bouncing upwards in a downtrend. The price tested the accumulation territory at 1.2650 on Monday and it is now around the distribution territory at 1.2750. This kind of action is normally seen as a rally in the context of a downtrend, which cannot be overridden unless the distribution territory at 1.3000 is overcome.

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USD/JPY: Although this currency trading instrument has remained rather quiet till now, there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the 4-hour chart. The outlook for the JPY pairs is bearish for this week, so the price is expected to go more and more bearish when volatility returns to the market.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY market is volatile, but directionless. This action started last week amid a downtrend. There would soon be a rise in momentum, which would most probably favor bears, as the price goes south, reaching the demand zones at 123.00 and 122.50.

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Global macro overview for 14/06/2017

Global macro overview for 14/06/2017:

Another set of good data from the eurozone has been released. The ZEW Economic Sentiment index for the eurozone (a survey of about 275 German institutional investors and analysts which ask respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the eurozone) rose to 37.7 points in June from 35.1 points the previous month. This was above consensus expectations of 37.2 and the strongest reading since August 2015. However, Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment index declined from 20.6 points to 18.6 points in the reported month, while the ZEW Current Situation index increased from 83.9 points to 88.0 points. There was a monthly improvement in both current expectations and the outlook in France and Italy as well, so the data will still provide some relief for the eurozone overall trends. In conclusion, despite a small decline in inflation expectations, the overall confidence in the euro area's economic growth remains strong and it is being backed by the ECB monetary policy. Moreover, political sentiment has improved as well since French President Emmanuel Macron's party in the National Assembly elections also boosted confidence.

The euro will be supported by the ECB loose monetary policy as long as it is necessary, especially as the recent inflation reading shows a lack of pressure. The ECB will maintain the wait-and-see approach towards the eurozone's economic growth to manage the risk tail. The interest rates should not go below 0.0% anytime soon.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture on the daily time frame. The market has been capped at the technical resistance at the level of 0.8855 and slid to the nearest technical support at the level of 0.8791. The price is trading above all the moving averages and only a clear breakout below the level of 0.8645 would change bias from bullish to bearish.

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Trading plan for 14/06/2017

Trading plan for 14/06/2017:

On Wall Street a clear rebound was noticed and new all-time highs were reached at closing market prices. However, the overnight Asian trading session remained subdued. EUR/USD has been trading in the past several days in a tight range (1,1185-1,1235) and is currently in the middle of this range. USD/JPY is around 110.00 again and awaits today's data. After a surprisingly high API report on crude oil inventories, WTI prices drop to around $46.00.

Wednesday, June 14, will be a super busy day in the financial markets because the event calendar is packed with important news releases. China will unveil the Industrial Production data, the UK will present the Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate reports, and the eurozone will post the Employment Change and Industrial Production data. The US will publish the Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Crude Oil Inventories and FOMC Metting and Press Conference.

Analysis of EUR/USD for 14/06/2017:

The Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales data is scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT, Crude Oil inventories will be published at 02:30 pm GMT. Additionally, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Statement, Economic Projections, and Press conference are expected at 06:00 pm GMT and 08:30 pm GMT respectively.

Market participants expect the FED to hike the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25% today. Expectations for a rate hike this week are so high that it would be a shock if the FED did not decide on it. More important will be what the FOMC will communicate about future policy formulation. Markets are quite skeptical about the pace of monetary tightening, but the Fed has reason to stick to its current strategy of one more hike by the end of the year and three more in 2018. Moreover, in recent weeks, the vast majority of the FED policymaker did not give any signals to change the market expectations against the June increase, which makes this element of the decision less interesting.

The FED Economic Projections need a small revision because since the publication of recent forecasts in March data from the US economy have shown weaker GDP growth for the first quarter. Nevertheless, FED said in the earlier comments that policymakers are prepared for this and treat the slowdown as temporary, expecting acceleration in next quarters. The Preliminary GDP for the second quarter confirm this scenario, so no significant changes in GDP forecasts are expected. Regarding the inflationary pressures, the monthly inflation reading was still below expectations, but again, the FED policymakers continue to emphasize their expectations for inflation to rise to 2%. The US jobs market is still showing a high level of performance with the unemployment rate way below the FED projected level of 4.7%, which means the US jobs market is close to the maximum level of employment that does not generate economic imbalances. The last but not least thing is to keep an eye on the FOMC Statement language, that should take into account the latest data coming from the economy. Changes are possible. FED should acknowledge the low unemployment rate and a slowdown in GDP growth rate and inflation. Moreover, during the press conference, Janne Yellen should mention that the US economic growth is going as planned by the FED policymakers, so there is no reason to depart from the path of gradual monetary tightening.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The market keeps trading in a narrow horizontal zone between the levels of 1.1236 - 1.1163 as it awaits the data. In a case of a rate hike, the price should break down below the golden trend line support and head lower towards the level of 1.1108 and 1.1075. In a case of a no rate hike situation, the price would have to spike up towards the level of 1.1300 and 1.1350.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil lower after API data

Crude oil prices decreased towards the 78%Fibo level again after a miss in the API data yesterday. Currently, the price is approaching the level of $45.52, but it might fall lower towards the technical support at $45.21. If bulls want to regain control over this market, they need to break above the technical resistance at the level of $46.73 and $48.24. Otherwise the bias will remain bearish.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 14, 2017

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 14, 2017

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for June 14, 2017

The dollar index shows reversal signs but it is not reversing actually. The trend remains bearish. I continue to believe this is not the time to be go short. I still expect that the price will bounce towards 99 before moving towards low 90's.

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Red line - short-term resistance

The price has fallen back inside the 4 hour Kumo. The trend is neutral. Support is being tested now. Resistance remains at 97.50. A break above 97.50 will push the index much higher towards 98.50-99. The 38% Fibonacci retracement is the most probable first target for the bounce.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Red line - resistance trend line

The Dollar index continues to diverge and is very close to the lower channel boundary below the Daily Kumo and the 200 MA. The trend is clearly bearish and I continue to expect it to remain like this even after the strong bounce. I still think that a strong bounce should push price towards the daily Kumo and then reverse lower. The Dollar index is oversold at current levels.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for June 14, 2017

Gold price is bouncing as expected after breaking out of the bearish short-term channel. The trend remains bearish but we could already have completed the entire correction and the next leg up towards $1,400 starting now. It is important to hold the recent low at $1,259.

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Gold price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud on the 4 hour chart. The trend remains bearish but there is an initial reversal off $1,259. Could the entire correction be over?we will know if we break above $1,295. Until then the $1,259 low is important for the short-term view. If it is broken, the price may go to $1,250-45. Short-term resistance by the Kumo is found at $1,277.

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Red line - medium-term support

Blue line- long-term support

Black line - long-term resistance

The weekly chart remains slightly bullish as the price is above the weekly Kumo. However, we need to be cautious as the price is still below the long-term black trend line resistance. Holding above the red trend line is a good sign and I do not expect to break it. I was expecting to touch the weekly cloud but it is not necessary. My long-term view remains bullish even if we dip to $1,240-$1,200.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/GBP for June 14, 2017

EUR/GBP has recently rejected the resistance at 0.8850 in a non-volatile bullish trend. GBP is likely to extend gains on the back of positive CPI report which was published at 2.9% versus the expected level at 2.7%. Along with CPI report, Core CPI, RPI and HPI reports were also positive which provided support to GBP. Today the UK Average Earning Index is going to be published. It is expected to be unchanged at 2.4%. Besides, the Claimant Count Change is expected to decrease to 12.5k from 19.4k previously and the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.6%. With a heavy economic calendar today, a good amount of volatility will likely hit the market and we might see further gains on the GBP side against EUR. In the eurozone side, the German Final CPI was published with an unchanged figure at -0.2% which was expected to be positive at 0.5% so GBP rose further against EUR. The Eurozone Employment Change report is also going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%. Along with it, the industrial production data is likely to show an increase to 0.5% from -0.1%. The eurozone economic reports are not quite important today so they will not create much volatility. Therefore, GBP is expected to gain further against EUR in the coming days despite the bullish trend in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has bounced from the resistance at 0.8850 which was also touched in January 2017. After that the price moved lower towards 0.8300 area. Currently, the price is showing bearish impulsive movement which is expected to continue till 0.8700 area at 20 EMA support. If 20 EMA support is broken below at a daily close, we will be looking forward for further down move towards 0.8530-0.8420 support area. As the price remains below 0.8850, bearish bias is expected to continue in this pair.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 14, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

The next daily supply level for the EUR/USD pair is located between 1.1400-1.1520 where price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection.

Recent Update: The price levels around 1.1270-1.1285 constitute intraday resistance where some bearish pullback is being expressed.

A bullish breakout above 1.1285 is needed to allow further advance towards 1.1400.

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H4 Outlook

By the end of last week, significant bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 1.1170 (Lower Limit of the wedge pattern in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci Level ).

The nearest supply level for this pair is located around 1.1280 (The upper limit of the wedge pattern) provided that the EUR/USD pair succeeds to extend above 1.1225 (recent resistance level).

On the other hand, bearish fixation below 1.1170 enhances further decline towards 1.1110 and 1.1070.

Trade recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair will remain bullish with the first target at 1.1400 unless evident signs of bearish rejection are expressed earlier around 1.1280. This hinders further advance towards our mentioned entry level.

A valid SELL entry can be considered at the depicted supply zone (1.1400 up to 1.1520). S/L should be placed above 1.1550 while T/P levels should be placed at 1.1100, 1.1020 and 1.0850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for June 14, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair market failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

Bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated off the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The temporary bearish rejection was expressed around 0.7050 (previous daily tops) before further advance was pursued towards 0.7120.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7220 stands as a prominent supply zone in confluence with Fibonacci level 61.8%. That's why bearish rejection should be anticipated within the current price zone.

Recent Update: Temporary bullish rejection was expressed around 0.7170 resulting in the daily candlestick of Monday (Hanging Man).

Daily candlestick closure above 0.7230 (Upper Limit of the current SELL zone) opens the way for an advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380.

Trade recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for a breakout of the current zone. Bearish closure below 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) indicates a valid SELL signal.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

On the other hand, bullish breakout above 0.7230 invalidates the bearish scenario allowing further bullish advance towards 0.7310-0.7380.

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Fundamental analysis of USD/CAD for June 14, 2017

USD/CAD has been in a non-volatile bearish trend since the start of the week. On Monday BOC Gov. Council member Welkins spoke about emerging signs of economic growth including adjustment of lower oil prices and a recovery in the industrial sector and labor market. Canada is going for economic diversity and benefits can be already seen. Today we do not have any economic events from Canada, but tomorrow the manufacturing sales report is due for release. It is expected to show a decrease to 0.9% from 1.0% previously. At the same time, the United States will post the monthly CPI report which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% and Core CPI which is expected to increase to 0.2% from 0.1% previously. Besides, the Core Retail Sales is also scheduled for release. The consensus forecast calls for a decrease to 0.2% from 0.3% previously. The retail sales volume is expected to decrease to 0.1% from 0.4% previously and crude oil inventories are likely to show a deficit of -2.3M which previously was at 3.3M. Thus, it is going to be a busy day in the United States today, so a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market. However, the loonie is likely to extend gains against its American counterpart in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has bounced off the resistance at 1.3540 on Friday and currently the market is impulsively bearish. Yesterday the price broke below the support at 1.3260, so further bearish move towards 1.3000 is expected in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3540, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 14, 2017

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Wave summary:

We are looking for a corrective low near 1.5439 for a break above minor resistance at 1.5633 and more importantly a break above 1.5720 that confirms the corrective low is in place for the next impulsive rally higher in wave iii/ towards 1.6655.

As long as minor resistance at 1.5633 is able to cap the upside, we must allow for a dip slightly below 1.5439, but the downside potential should be limited from here.

R3: 1.5931

R2: 1.5720

R1: 1.5633

Pivot: 1.5600

S1: 1.5491

S2: 1.5439

S3: 1.5369

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5540 with stop placed at 1.5340. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 1.5633 and use the same stop.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 14, 2017

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Wave summary:

Not really much to add here. The triangle consolidation remains the preferred outlook. We continue to look for wave d closer to 134.62 before the final dip lower in wave e to complete the triangle consolidation, setting the stage for renewed upside pressure towards 134.58 and likely even closer to 138.52.

Only an unexpected break below 122.53 will shift to an alternate corrective structure.

R3: 124.04

R2: 123.73

R1: 123.40

Pivot: 123.20

S1: 123.00

S2: 122.77

S3: 122.53

Trading recommendation:

We are neutral for now.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for June 13, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair managed to reach 139.00 levels yesterday achieving the previously expected negative target and ending negative trading by facing old support at 138.60. According to the chart, the price forms a positive rebound that might be the beginning of new bullish bias in case this support line remains intact during current trading. Therefore, we expect the bullish bias conditioned by achieving the mentioned conditions. We also expect the price to rally towards 141.70 levels and face the moving average 55, while a breach of it will extend trading towards 143.35 followed by 145.45 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 138.70 and 141.70.

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Daily analysis of Gold for June 13, 2017

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Overview

The gold price crawls calmly to the downside approaching the awaited support at 1,254.56 and keeping the bearish bias active for today, which is also supported by the EMA50 that pushes the price negatively. We are waiting for a bullish rebound after testing 1,254.56 and 1,249.94 levels to resume the main bullish trend. On the other hand, you should be aware that a break of the mentioned levels will push the price to 1,229.32 before any new attempt to rise, while a breach of the 1,277.00 represents the key to regaining the main bullish trend and stopping the current negative pressure. The expected trading range for today is between the 1,249.94 support and the 1,277.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for June 13, 2017

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Overview

The silver price continues trading downwards below the 17.00 barrier, reinforcing the expectations for achieving more downward targets that test 16.56 levels mainly. It points to the steadiness of this level against the negative pressure that will help the price resume the main bullish trend. Therefore, the bearish bias will remain preferred for today unless breaching and holding above 17.43 levels, where a breach of this level will leads the price to achieve positive targets that begin at 18.30 mainly. The expected trading range for today is between the 16.70 support and the 17.10 resistance.

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USD/JPY dropping perfectly, remain bearish for a further drop.

Price has dropped perfectly from our selling area as expected and is on track to reaching our profit target. We remain bearish below 110.66 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance) for a further push down to at least 108.23 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing major resistance below our 96% level and has good downside potential.

Sell below 110.66. Stop loss at 111.25. Take profit at 108.23.

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GBP/USD testing major support, remain bullish

Price is testing our major support at 1.2633 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal pullback support, bullish divergence) and we expect a strong bounce above this level to at least 1.2886 resistance (Fibonacci retracement).

RSI (34) sees major support above the 26% level where we expect a bounce from and also sees bullish divergence signalling that a strong bounce is expected.

Buy above 1.2633. Stop loss at 1.2483. Take profit at 1.2886.

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AUD/USD testing major resistance, time to start selling

Price is testing our major resistance at 0.7548 (horizontal swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect a strong drop from this level to at least 0.7472 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below our 95% level where we expect a further drop from. It is also seeing intermediate resistance below our 63% which should push price down further.

Sell below 0.7548. Stop loss at 0.7573. Take profit at 0.7472.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 13, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as key resistance is seen at 110.45. The technical picture of the pair remains bearish below its declining 50-period moving average, which is playing a resistance role. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. Even though a continuation of a technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

As long as 110.45 holds on the upside, look for a further drop toward 109.65 and even 109.35 in extension.

Alternatively, if price moves in the opposite direction as predicted, long position is recommended above 110.45 with targets at 109.65 and 109.35.

Graph Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point, present price above pivot point indicates the bullish position and below pivot points indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy : SELL, Stop Loss: 110.45, Take Profit: 109.65

Resistance levels: 120.80, 111.10, and 111.45

Support levels: 109.65,109.35, and 109

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