Bitcoin analysis for December 22, 2017

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $13.182. The price of bitcoin (BTC) has dropped more than 25 percent in four days, and it looks headed for even worse territories as of this writing. Veterans have braced for its eventuality. However, there are many newly onboarded, and they're only used to the world's most popular cryptocurrency dipping slightly in an effort to rise again evero-higher, quickly. For perspective, here's a look at some of the more memorable crashes. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time - frame, I found successful rejection of strong resistance at the price of $13.723, which is sign that sellerr are in control. If the prrice breaks the level of $12.100 (Major FRR 38.2%), I expect potential testing of $9.845 (FR 50%). My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities.

Support/Resistance

$14.224 – Intraday resistance (price action)

$13.182 – Intraday support

$11.415 – First objective target

$9.845 – Second objective target

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Global macro overview for 22/12/2017

Phenomenal data came from the Canadian economy. Retail sales increased to 1.5% on a monthly basis which was way better than 0.3% forecasts and the previous 0.1% value. The CPI inflation also surprised positively, which broke the consensus both on an annual and monthly basis by 1 pp. (respectively to 2.1% and 0.3%). If the inflation proves sustained, it will be definitely noted by the Bank of Canada. Policy makers have been keen to keep the expansion moving with low-interest rates while expecting a price pressure will be muted. Nevertheless, the hot Canadian economy has started to show the signs of inflationary pressures, so BoC might change its point of view regarding the interest rates policy very soon. Investors are anticipating the Bank of Canada will move ahead with three more interest rate increases by the end of next year, adding to two rate hikes this year.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The Canadian Dollar jumped as much as 0.9% so far as the reports raise the prospect of earlier rate increases by the central bank. The USD/CAD pair has violated the support at the level of 1.2713 and currently is moving sideways. The momentum indicator is now below its fifty level as points to the south. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2662.

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Global macro overview for 22/12/2017

Catalonia chose the government

At yesterday's elections to the regional parliament in Catalonia, the separatists won 70 seats in the 135-seat parliament (the majority are 68 seats): the total for Catalonia (Junts per Catalunya) has 34 seats, the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) has 32 seats and the ultra-left Union of Unity People's Republic (CUP). The turnout was record-breaking, as it amounted to 83 percent.

The result of the elections is clearly showing that pro-independence parties managed to get a majority of the seats in the Catalan parliament, which might increase the political uncertainty of the region. The ERC party has declared in the run-up to the elections that it is no longer in favor of a unilateral declaration of independence but seeks a negotiated solution, risks of a new standoff with Madrid have diminished. Moreover, is still not clear who will be the head of the new government and this might not be the easy process. The crisis already appears to have had some impact on the economy. Retail sales in October, for example, dropped sharply in Catalonia and more than 3,000 companies moved their corporate address outside the region.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The Catalan elections did not have much impact on the pair yet as the market is in pre-Christmas low volatility mode, so the election results might get digested through the holiday season and then the market participants will experience more extended market moves. The price got stuck between the levels of 1.1901 - 1.1816 and the momentum is hovering around its fifty level, supporting the neutral outlook in the near-term.

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USD/JPY analysis for December 22, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 113.37. According to the 30M time – frame, I found an upward breakout of intraday sideways base, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish diverrgence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upawrd targets are set at the price of 113.57 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of 131.80 (pivot resistance 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 113.57

R2: 131.80

R3: 114.00

Support levels:

S1: 113.13

S2: 112.95

S3: 112.69

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for December 22, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.1817. According to the 30M time – frame, I found broken pennant in the background, which is sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the pice of 1.1820 (FR 50%) and at the price of 1.1800 (FR 61.8%).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1893

R2: 1.1910

R3: 1.1933

Support levels:

S1: 1.1850

S2: 1.1830

S3: 1.1812

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 22, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.

Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7150 if enough bullish momentum is expressed above the price level of 0.7050.

Trade Recommendations:

An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the chart indicating high probability of bullish reversal.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 was considered for a short-term BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6950 (neckline) is mandatory to pursue towards next bullish targets.

S/L should be moved to 0.6900 to secure some profits. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050 and 0.7110.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 22, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.1900.

Trade Recommendations

The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 were suggested for a valid short-term SELL entry. It's already running in profits.

S/L should be lowered to 1.1900 to offset the associated risk. Remaining T/P levels to be located at 1.1700 and 1.1590.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 22, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is stil continuing an uptrend since from the spot of 0.9850 and 0.9880. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 1.0037 or higher. The price is still trading around the spot of 0.6948 and 0.7026. The USD/CHF pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.6948. The support is found at the level of 0.6948, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.6948, while immediate resistance is seen at 0.7026. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.6948. So, buy above the level of 0.6948 with the first target at 0.7026 in order to test the daily resistance 1. Also, the level of 0.7026 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the USD/CHF pair to climb from 0.7026 to 0.7065 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.6948, a further decline to 0.6820 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 22, 2017

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Overview:

  • The Kiwi is still move between the resistance and support of 0.7034 and 0.6927. The trend of NZD/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.6927 and 0.7034. Besides, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 0.6927 and 0.6872 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. Last week, the market moved from its bottom at 0.6927 and continued to rise towards the top of 0.7034. Today, in the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.7034, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.7034 . Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.7034 with the first target at 0.6927. If the trend breaks the support level of 0.6927, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.6872 in order to test the daily support 2. Tt should be noted that the double bottom is seen at the point of 0.6872.
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Trading plan 12/22/2017

General picture: It is the last active day before Christmas. On Friday, the markets will hold the last day of active trading before Christmas which is on December 25th, Monday, and the markets are closed during the holiday.

On Friday, data on orders for durable goods in the US and more importantly, inflation by the RFE index (by consumption basket) will be released at 12.30 London time.

A new wave of growth of the euro against the dollar is expected but the closure of the markets for the long weekend can give unexpected results.

Buying is advised after a breakout above the level of 1.1900.

GBP / USD pair

The British pound continues to form a hard range: trade for breakout levels as shown in the chart below.

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BITCOIN Analysis for December 22, 2017

Bitcoin has crashed impulsively recently after breaking below the $15,500 support level recently that led the price to fall below $13,500 area as well. Bitcoin is currently struggling to recover the bullish bias over the impulsive bearish momentum as traders and investors have recently started selling Bitcoin at a rapid pace. Many exchanges have paused the trading for Bitcoin due to massive transaction pressure as the price is dropping quite impulsively. Moreover, it is also rumored that Goldman Sachs can start trading in the coming days which might inject some bulls in the market in the future. As for the current scenario, price is very impulsive with the bearish pressure and after breaking below the $15,500 price area, the bearish pressure has multiplied itself. Currently the price is expected to reach towards $9,000 to $11,800 support area. If the price manages to bounce from this support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue again in the coming days. Though the bearish pressure is expected to be temporary, but it has managed to wipe out most of the market players in the process which is indeed not a good sign for this cryptocurrency.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for December 22, 2017

EUR/GBP has been quite volatile and corrective with the recent gains after bouncing off the 0.8750 support area. EUR has found support from recent economic reports which helped the currency to gain good momentum over GBP. EUR is likely to keep momentum in the coming days. Today, German Gfk Consumer Climate report was published with a slight increase to 10.8 which was expected to be unchanged at 10.7, German Import Price report showed an increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.6%, and French Consumer Spending report showed a significant increase to 2.2% from the previous negative value of -2.1% which was expected to be at 1.4%. On the other hand, today UK Current Account report is going to be published which is expected to show less deficit at -21.5B from the previous figure of 23.2B, Final GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, Index of Services is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.4%, and Revised Business Investment is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%. As for the current scenario, EUR is currently stronger in the pair whereas any positive economic report from the UK today may lead to further volatility and corrections in the pair though the bulls are currently quite strong and have better ability to sustain the gains over GBP in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is working as a support for the price to push higher. The price has been quite volatile recently but now the price is holding above the recent lower highs which indicates that the bulls are getting ready to take the price much higher towards 0.9050 resistance area. As the price remains above 0.8750 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for 22/12/2017

Singapore's Monetary Authority (MAS), in other words, the Central Bank of the country, has become the newest financial supervisor that warns of the risks associated with cryptocurrencies. Citing the recent speculative rise in prices, MAS has published a statement in which it recommends that the public be extremely cautious when investing in digital currencies such as Bitcoin. The authority also stressed that it does not regulate cryptocurrencies and that investors must be prepared for the risk of losing the invested funds. Explaining that cryptocurrencies are not legal tender in the country, MAS stated:"Singapore's monetary authorities advise the public to act with extreme caution and understand the significant risks that are being taken when investing in cryptocurrencies."

MAS also noted that in Singapore there is no regulatory body that could secure investments in cryptocurrencies or ensure the reliability of cryptocurrency intermediaries. The bank also explains that if the intermediary uses cryptocurrencies for illegal purposes, his actions may be stopped by law enforcement authorities.

The statement is in line with the investors' earlier warning from MAS about the risks associated with the ICO projects published in August.

Let's now take a look at Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has started a sudden and deep corrective cycle, labeled as wave 4. The first part of this correction was almost made as the price has hit the key technical support at the level of $12, 692. This corrective cycle might get extended in time and price even more and in turn, evolve into more complex and time-consuming correction. The key technical resistance is seen at the level of $15,478.

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Trading plan for 22/12/2017

The tax reform has been approved by the House of Representatives and the Senate, currently awaiting the signature of US President Donald Trump. There is no more reaction on the market, as investors expected such a turn of events. Very good data came from the Canadian economy, resulting in CAD being the strongest currency in the major's basket.

On Friday 22nd of December, the event calendar is busy with the important news releases: KOF Economic Barometer data from Switzerland, Current Account and Final GDP from the UK, Gross Domestic Product from Canada and Durable Goods Orders data from the US.

EUR/CJF analysis for 22/12/2017:

Switzerland KOF economic barometer indicator was released at the level of 111.3 vs 110.5 expected, which confirmed an improve in general sentiment. The reading is relatively solid, well above expectations and at the highest level since 2010. The KOF Economic Barometer is one or two quarters ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform in the next or in the next two quarters.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has been trading inside of a sideways consolidation zone between the levels of 1.1584 - 1.1739 for some time now The bulls have managed to make a marginal higher high at the level of 1.1749, but they were not strong enough to hold the level and price went back to the zone. As long as the market is trading above the golden trend line support (around the level of 1.1640), the outlook remains bullish.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil remains in triangle

The price of Crude Oil is still trading inside of a triangle that was made above the golden trend line support. This is a trend continuation pattern, so as long as this trend line is not violated, the outlook remains bullish, The nearest support is seen at the level of 56.78 and the nearest resistance is seen at the level of 59.04.

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Market Snapshot: GBP/JPY consolidating the gains

The price of GBP/JPY had bounced from the 61% Fibo at the level of 149.41 and shoot back up towards the level of 151.91. Currently, the market stayed there and the price is trading in a small triangle pattern, which suggest a further advance towards the level of 152.82 is still possible. The nearest support is seen at the level of 151.05.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for December 22, 2017

The Dollar index tried to bounce and resume the up trend yesterday but got rejected at the cloud resistance and remains inside a downward sloping triangle, what is most probably a bullish wedge pattern.

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Black lines - bullish wedge

Trend remains bearish as price is making lower lows and lower highs. Price bounced yesterday towards cloud resistance but got rejected. Price remains below the 4-hour cloud and this is not good for bulls. Support is at 93.15-93. Resistance is at 93.50-93.60. Important resistance that will change trend to bullish is at 93.80.

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So far the weekly candle is a rejection candle. This is not good for bulls. Bulls must do something today to save the day. A weekly close above 93.60 would be very bullish for next week. However a weekly close at current or lower levels would be bearish and put the 92.50 low in danger. I'm dollar bullish expecting the Dollar to bounce strongly from current levels.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for December 22, 2017

Gold price remains near the important $1,266-70 resistance area. Trend remains bullish but price has made no real progress over last few days. Gold price is expected to reverse and at least test support at $1,250. I'm bearish, expecting a move even towards $1,220.

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Black lines - bearish wedge

Gold price is not moving higher in an impulsive pattern. Price although trading above the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) has formed a bearish wedge. Support is at $1,263 and at $1,260. Breaking below these levels will give me a new sell signal with $1,250 as minimum target. Price is right below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downward move and I'm bearish here.

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In the daily chart, Gold price is testing the daily kijun-sen. This is very important resistance. A rejection at current levels will at least push price towards the daily tenkan-sen (red line indicator). However I believe it is more probable we break it and move to test recent lows at $1,240-37. Forming a higher low would be a bullish sign. That is why bears need to break below the tenkan-sen and weaken bulls further.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning Forecast 22/12/2017

Burning Forecast 22/12/2017

EURUSD: Buy for a breakdown of 1.1900

On Thursday, a bundle of important data on the US came out:

The GDP report showed growth that was slightly below the forecast at +3.2% (the forecast was +3.3%).

The inflation index for GDP (deflator) at the level of 2.1% - without growth.

The index of leading indicators is below the forecast, a slowdown in growth.

Business profit growth at +9.8% (annual) - slightly decreased (was +10%).

Indices of business activity: Contradictory - Philadelphia - growth, Chicago - slowdown.

Bottom line: Slight slowdown, inflation remains low.

The euro showed a strong rebound down to 1.1815 - but the growth has not yet been broken.

On Friday 22.12 - the last day of trading before Christmas.

EURUSD: Buy for a breakdown of 1.1900, stop-loss at 1.1855, profit of 1.2080.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 22, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD continues to follow the expected path and with support at 1.6865 tested wave ii should be over soon for a break above minor resistance at 1.6940 for more upside pressure in wave iii towards at least 1.7375 on the way higher to the long-term target near 1.7777.

R3: 1.7064

R2: 1.6993

R1: 1.6940

Pivot: 1.6855

S1: 1.6822

S2: 1.6802

S3: 1.6780

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6873 with our stop placed at 1.6795.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 22, 2017

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Wave summary:

With the break above 134.50, more upside pressure towards the "old" (D)-wave target at 137.37 is expected. That said, we have to remember that we are in the final stages of this (D)-wave rally from 109.54, so don't fall in love with the EUR at these lofty levels.

Support is seen at 133.84 (has been tested) and again at 133.57, which should protect the downside for the next rally higher. Below 133.57 will be of concern and indicate a possible bull-trap above 134.50.

R3: 136.05

R2: 135.75

R1: 134.90

Pivot: 134.40

S1: 133.84

S2: 133.57

S3: 133.24

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 134.10 with stop placed at 133.40.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 22, 2017

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Our first upside target which we predicted in our previous analysis has been hit. USD/JPY is expected to continue its upside movement. the pair is off the high of 113.63 seen yesterday (December 21) and capped by the 20-period moving average. However, it has avoided breaching the key support at 113.20. Though the relative strength index is yet to recover the neutrality level of 50, it has broken above a declining trend line, showing a lack of tendency to decline further. As long as the key support at 112.80 remains intact, the pair still stands chances of revisiting 113.65 on the upside.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 112.80 with a target of 112.50.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.80, Take Profit: 113.65

Resistance levels: 113.65, 113.85 and 114.10 Support Levels: 112.50, 112.30, 112.00

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 22, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Despite the recent pullback from 0.9910 (the high of December 21), the pair is supported by a rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2% annualized rate in the third quarter, the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2015 and compared with +3.1% in the second quarter.

To conclude, as long as 0.9865 is not broken, a further rebound to 0.9910 and even to 0.9935 seems more likely to occur.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9865, Take Profit: 0.9910

Resistance levels: 0.9910, 0.9935, and 0.9975

Support levels: 0.9850, 0.9835, and 0.9800

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 22, 2017

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Our upside target which we predicted in the previous analysis has been hit. Turning up. The pair posted a rebound from 149.45 and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 20-period moving average turned up and crossed above the 50-period one. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50.

To conclude, as long as 151.25 holds on the downside, look for a further rebound with targets at 152 and 152.35 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 151.25 with the target at 151.00

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 151.25, Take Profit: 152.00

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.00, 152.35, and 153.00

Support levels: 151.00, 150.75, and 150

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 22, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as French Consumer Spending m/m and German GfK Consumer Climate. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1901.

Strong Resistance:1.1894.

Original Resistance: 1.1883.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1872.

Target Inner Area: 1.1844.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1816.

Original Support: 1.1805.

Strong Support: 1.1794.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1787.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 22, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.88.

Resistance. 2: 113.66.

Resistance. 1: 113.43.

Support. 1: 113.16.

Support. 2: 112.94.

Support. 3: 112.72.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 22, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair is supported by a bullish trend line, which confirmed a positive outlook. The upward momentum is further reinforced by both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for further upside.

To sum up, as long as 0.6985 holds on the downside, look for a new challenge with targets at 0.7050 and 0.7070 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7050, 0.7070, and 0.7100

Support levels: 0.6970, 0.6950, and 0.6920

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EUR/JPY seeing nicely support, prepare to buy

The price is starting to bounce nicely off 133.83 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, bullish price action) and we expect to see a strong bounce above this level to push the price up to at least 123.81 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (21,3,1) is seeing strong support above 6.1% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

Buy above 133.83. Stop loss is at 133.39. Take profit is at 134.81.

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GBP/USD starting to breakout, keep an eye out on this trade!

The price has been testing our descending resistance line multiple times yesterday and is seeing strong support above 1.3309 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support). We expect to see a strong bounce above this level to push the price up to at least 1.3522 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance). We have to watch out for the descending line which would pose as intermediate resistance to this move.

Stochastic (55,3,1) is starting to make a bullish exit from its descending resistance-turned-support line and this could trigger a strong corresponding rise up in price.

Buy above 1.3309. Stop loss is at 1.3202. Take profit is at 1.3522.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 22, 2017

EUR/USD: There remains a bullish bias on the EUR/USD, in spite of the current pullback on it. The pullback is not supposed to go below the support line at 1.1750 (otherwise the bias would turn bearish). The pullback might turn out to be an opportunity to buy long at a better price.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument has been moving sideways for several days (with no directional movement). There is a great resistance level at 1.0000, and bullish machinations may not push the price above that resistance level. This means that when a breakout does occur, it would most probably favor bears.

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GBP/USD: The GBP/USD has been consolidating so far this week. The more the consolidation holds out, the bigger the breakout would be when it does happen. There is a distribution territory at 1.3500 and there is an accumulation territory at 1.3250. Each of these territories would be breached when a breakout occurs.

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USD/JPY: A bullish signal has already been generated on this currency trading instrument. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market (the EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50). The next targets are the supply levels at 113.50 and 114.00.

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EUR/JPY: This cross went upwards strongly this week, breached the price zone at 134.50 and then dropped below it. The bearish correction might end up being an opportunity to buy long when things are on sale (and in the context of an uptrend).

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 22, 2017

USDX awaits to make a strong breakout to the downside, as the bears are looking to test the support zone of 92.83. Such move could be a confirmation that the index has found a dynamic resistance in the 200 SMA at H1 chart. However, if it does a rebound and travels toward the 94.09 level, the next target should be the 94.85 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.09 / 94.85

H1 chart's support levels: 93.30 / 92.83

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.30, take profit is at 92.83 and stop loss is at 93.76.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 22, 2017

GBP/USD is consolidating around the 200 SMA at H1 chart and it looks like we can expect some sideways moves for the rest of the year, as the markets are getting prepared to receive Christmas holidays and New Year Eve as well. The critical level of 1.3444 remains in place and it should be pierced in order to reach the 1.3516 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3444 / 1.3516

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3303 / 1.3234

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3444, take profit is at 1.3516 and stop loss is at 1.3372.

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Euro has difficulty with ideas for continuing growth

Eurozone

The euro is stable after the news that the US Senate approved the tax reform on Wednesday. The market regarded this news as positive and bond yields rose to annual peaks. It is expected that the demand for developing countries' currencies will increase while the demand for protective assets will decrease.

One of the main tasks of the reform is the repatriation of the American capital. In foreign accounts, it is estimated that there are up to $ 2 trillion with most of them in Europe. Since the corporate tax rate has been reduced from 35% to 21% and for incomes received abroad it will be even lower, the result could have a significant impact on the euro due to the reorientation of financial flows.

At the same time, their own macroeconomic indicators indicate some saturation of growth. The Ifo index for Germany fell slightly in December and there is currently no driver for continuing growth.

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Today, the European Commission will publish its view on the dynamics of consumer confidence and on Friday the Gfk will release their report. If their results are similar to the data from Ifo, the euro will begin to experience additional pressure and sales may intensify.

A quarterly payroll report showed that growth in the third quarter was only 1.6% with a forecast of 2.0%. This means that instead of the expected growth, it showed a decline. This factor will put pressure on inflation and expectations will be lowered. In the end, this will give the ECB the right to delay the beginning of the process of normalizing monetary policy.

In general, the expectations for the euro area and the US are beginning to change in favor of the latter. Of course, tax cuts will lead to an increase in the budget deficit and related unpleasant consequences but in general, the capital will approve of the prospects that, amid a lower balance, the Fed could cause an increased demand for the dollar. It is likely that the EURUSD pair will decline by the end of the week to 1.1780 with the subsequent acceleration of the decrease as new information on the beginning of the implementation of the tax plan in the US is received.

United Kingdom

The consumer confidence index from Gfk declined to -13p in December. The overall decline for the year was 8p which is a worrying sign. Consumers are less inclined to spend and save more and more because they are not sure about the financial perspective. The overall economic situation is extremely negative. By December, this subindex has fallen to -31p.

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Estimates of consumer confidence in the United Kingdom and the United States are moving in different directions, with the speed of divergence increasing. This factor is important for assessing the prospects for the dollar and pound, as in both countries the economy is mainly in the service sector. In the US, especially after the adoption of the tax plan, GDP growth rates may increase while the United Kingdom is facing a threat of a slowdown.

The pound has strengthened somewhat in recent months as the probability of a soft Brexit was quite high. This means that Britain could retain some of the privileges in relations with the EU. The latest news indicates that this probability is decreasing and the output will be more stringent. The pound, thus, risks being subjected to additional pressure, which makes its chances against the dollar even weaker.

The pound may fall as a result of the week to 1.33 with the prospect of moving to the support level of 1.30. This can only be prevented by negative news from the US, which casts doubt on the FRS's plan on rates in 2018.

Oil

Oil quotes again rushed upwards. The reason was the positive data from the US Energy Ministry, published yesterday. There was a reduction in crude oil reserves along with an insignificant increase in gasoline stocks, indicating some potential for growth in demand.

Also, the upward pressure on oil is provided by the adoption of a new tax plan, which may eventually lead to an increase in business activity. As a reaction to the reforms in the United States, the currencies of developing countries and commodity currencies are growing. In fact, the process develops in favor of the bulls if we add here the long-term factor of constraining demand from OPEC +. Most likely, the oil will be able to update to a maximum of 65.30 in the coming days.ะป.

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