Global macro overview for 20/12/2017

A two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ends on Thursday, December 21, in the early morning hours (around 4:00 am to 6:00 am GMT). The global investors assume BoJ will keep the interest rates unchanged (main rate: -0.1%, the target for 10-year bond yield: 0.0%). It might be too early for Japan to start talking about the normalization of monetary policy and the current soft attitude should be sustained. Although the Japanese economy is doing well, using the global economic outlook, the inflation outlook is still unstable. CPI inflation in October fell to 0.2% y/y from 0.7% in September. Core inflation (excluding fresh food prices) at 0.8% y/y is better, but inflationary pressure is temporarily boosting fuel prices. Without it, you can not see that the inflation target of 2.0% anytime soon, it was to be achieved quickly, which suggests that the BoJ will not start discussing the normalization of monetary policy before 2019.

This is why the global investors might be more interested in the press conference of the president Kuroda. In November during the conference in Zurich, Kuroda raised the subject of the "rate of retreat", which was perceived by some as a signal to prepare for the earlier normalization of politics. Now the president of BoJ will have opportunities to develop this and explain what he had in mind at the time. However, Kuroda might exclude discussion about the imminent departure from the ultra-loose policy. The global investors should be assured that in the opinion of the BoJ monetary policy does not harm the financial sector and they can not see the negative effects of the policy of low-interest rates.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has managed to break out above the 61% Fibo at the level of 113.08 and now is testing the technical resistance at the level of 113.23. The momentum is increasing, but in order to confirm the further strength, the bulls must break out above the golden trend line resistance and above the technical resistance at the level of 113.74.

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Global macro overview for 20/12/2017

Swedish Riksbank kept its interest rate unchanged (-0.5%) in line with expectations. The deadline for the first hike remained unchanged - we find out from the statement that this may happen more or less in the middle of next year, but Riksbank's final decision on when to start to increase the policy rate depends in large part on how the ECB times its policy normalization. it is highly unlikely that Riksbank will start to hike to interest rates before ECB. Nevertheless, the biggest news in the Riksbank's statement today is the decision not to add to its QE programme anymore, although the decision to re-calibrate reinvestments means that asset purchases will continue in 2018 and the first half of 2019. In the result, the Riksbank's balance sheet will continue to expand in 2018 and early 2019 provided a very gradual path towards exiting the programme.

Let's now take a look at the USD/SEK technical picture at the H4 time frame. In the first USD/SEK reaction, it dived 0.8%. to 8.31, however, some of the losses have already been erased. Currently, the rate fluctuates around the level of 8.35, but it is still below the golden trend line. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 8.40 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 8.26.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for December 20, 2017

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair finally looks set to drop lower into wave 3 of wave (3) as labelled here. The pair has taken time to produce a flat wave 2 around 1.1840/50 levels today. It is also converging with the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the drop between 1.1950/60 and 1.1720 levels respectively (not shown here). If the above wave count holds true, then the most probable direction from here should be lower towards 1.1550 at least. Also prices should generally stay below 1.1950/60 levels going forward. On the flip side, a push through 1.1950 levels would indicate that the pair is setting up for another high above 1.2092 levels before giving in to bears.To simplify, we shall remain short till prices stay below 1.1960.

Trading plan:

Please remain short, stop at 1.1960 target 1.1550 and lower.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index is poised to rally through 94.00 levels any moment now. If we look at the wave structure, the index has formed a flat wave 2, within wave (3) of a higher degree. Also it has found support at a convergence of fibonacci 0.618 level of the rally between 92.60 and 94.20 levels, and past resistance turned support as well. If this wave count holds well, prices are expected to remain above 92.50 levels going forward and the most probable direction from here should be towards 95.00 and higher levels. Only a break below 92.50 now, would delay matters further and suggest another low below 91.00 levels before it turns bullish again.

Trading plan:

Please remain long now, stop below 92.50, target 95.00 and 98.00

Fundamental outlook:

GBP Carney speech in about 30 minutes from now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 20, 2017

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USD/JPY remains on the upside while trading around the ascending 20-period moving average, which stands above the 50-period one. Currently, it is not far away from the high of yesterday (December 19) at 113.07. And the relative strength index stays at levels above the neutrality level of 50, showing a lack of downward momentum for the pair. As long as the key support at 112.80 is not breached, the pair should return to 113.55 before advancing further to 113.75.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 112.80 with a target of 112.50.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.80, Take Profit: 113.55

Resistance levels: 113.55, 113.75 and 114.00 Support Levels: 112.50, 112.30, 112.00

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Bitcoin analysis for December 20, 2017

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $15.618. The South Korean cryptocurrency exchange affiliated with Kakao Talk has recently become the center of regulatory controversy. Upbit is the only major exchange in Korea that has not joined the other exchanges in support of self-regulation. Their agreement with Bittrex raises the question of how the regulation applies to them. Meanwhile, the exchange is having its own internal problems as customer complaints mount. Technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time - frame, I found confirmed reversal head and shoulders formation, which is sign that selling looks risky. I also found a broken supply trendline, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $18.890 and at the price of $19.450.

Support/Resistance

$15.618 – Intraday support

$17.422 – Intraday resistance

$18.890 – First objective target

$19.450 – Second objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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GBP/USD analysis for December 20, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3413. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frrame, I found a successful rejection of pivot resistance 1 at the price of 1.3415, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential sleling opporunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3345 and at the price of 1.3302.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1415

R2: 1.3444

R3: 1.3486

Support levels:

S1: 1.3345

S2: 1.3302

S3: 1.3370

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for December 20, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1858. According to the 15M time – frrame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 1.1848, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1825, 1.1817 and at the price of 1.1809.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1867

R2: 1.1895

R3: 1.1940

Support levels:

S1: 1.1795

S2: 1.1750

S3: 1.1723

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 20, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.1900.

Trade Recommendations

The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 were suggested for a valid short-term SELL entry. It's already running in profits.

S/L should be lowered to 1.1870 to offset the associated risk. Remaining T/P levels to be located at 1.1700 and 1.1590.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 20, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.

Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7150 if enough bullish momentum is expressed above the price level of 0.7050.

Trade Recommendations:

An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the chart indicating high probability of bullish reversal.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 was considered for a short-term BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6950 (neckline) is mandatory to pursue towards next bullish targets.

S/L should be moved to 0.6900 to secure some profits. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050 and 0.7110.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 20, 2017

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We will retain our yesterday's outlook of the pair. The pair retreated from the key resistance at 0.9885 and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50.

Therefore, as long as 0.9885 holds on the upside, look for a return to 0.9835. A break below of this level would trigger a new decline to 0.9815.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9885, Take Profit: 0.9835

Resistance levels: 0.9905, 0.9935, and 0.9975

Support levels: 0.9835, 0.9815, and 0.9795

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 20, 2017

EUR/USD: There is a "buy" signal on the EUR/USD: The EMA 11 has gone above the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is now in the overbought region, indicating a strong bullish momentum in the market. This is just the beginning as the price is supposed to go above the resistance lines at 1.1900 and 1.1950.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF has generated a short-term "sell" signal. Price can go towards the support levels at 0.9850 and 0.9800. There is a great resistance level at 1.0000, and bullish machinations may not push price above that resistance level. The price should go southwards from here when a breakout happens.

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GBP/USD: This market is consolidating at best, and there is no directional, perpetual movement at the present. There are visible boundaries at the distribution territory at 1.3450 and the accumulation territory at 1.3300. Either of these boundaries would be breached this week, as price assumes a directional movement.

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USD/JPY: Just like its EUR/JPY counterpart, the USD/JPY has also generated a bullish signal, which, though, is not as strong as that of EUR/JPY. There is a now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and the price is expected to go further northwards from here, reaching the supply levels at 113.50, 114.00.

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EUR/JPY: There is a bullish signal on the EUR/JPY, for price has gone upwards by 160 pips this week. Further upwards movement is anticipated, as price journeys towards the supply zones at 134.50, 135.00 and 135.50. It is even possible for these initial targets to be exceeded within the next several trading days.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 20, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 1.0037 or higher. The price is still trading around the spot of 0.6948 and 0.7026. The NZD/USD pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.6948. The support is found at the level of 0.6948, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.6948, while immediate resistance is seen at 0.7026. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.6948. So, buy above the level of 0.6948 with the first target at 0.7026 in order to test the daily resistance 1. Also, the level of 0.7026 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the NZDUSD pair to climb from 0.7026 to 0.7065 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6948, a further decline to 0.6820 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 20, 2017

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Overview:

  • The trend of NZD/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.6927 and 0.7034. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 0.6927 and 0.6872 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. Last week, the market moved from its bottom at 0.6927 and continued to rise towards the top of 0.7034. Today, in the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.7034, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.7034 (the level of 0.7034 coincides with the double top too). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.7034 with the first target at 0.6927. If the trend breaks the support level of 0.6927, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.6872 in order to test the daily support 2. Also, it should be noted that the double bottom is seen at the point of 0.6822.
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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 20, 2017

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All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. Despise of recent pullback, the pair is still trading above its rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is mixed with a bullish bias. The downside potential shoulder is limited by the key support at 150.85.

Hence, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a further upside to 151.90 and even to 152.25 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 150.85 with the target at 150.40

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 150.85, Take Profit: 151.90

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 151.90, 152.25, and 152.70

Support levels: 150.40, 150.15, and 149.60

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for December 20, 2017

AUD/USD has been impulsively bullish recently after bouncing off the 0.75 support area. Despite the recent USD Federal Funds Rate hike, AUD was unstoppable with its gains which is proceeding optimistically towards 0.7750-0.7800 resistance area. AUD has been quite positive with the recent economic reports and events including Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The employment change has been a remarkable positive report for AUD which helped the currency to gain good momentum over USD resulting in more bullish pressure. Today AUD MI Leading Index report was published with an unchanged value of 0.1%, which was not quite helpful for the currency to strengthen the bullish momentum but could help to sustain it well by now. On the USD side, today Existing Home Sales report is going to be published with an increase to 5.53M from the previous figure of 5.48M and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit to -3.6M from the previous figure of -5.1M. Moreover, tomorrow USD Final GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.3%, where any positive change can lead to bullish counter by the end of the week. As of the current scenario, AUD has been the dominant currency in the pair despite the recent USD rate hike which was expected to inject volatility in the market. As there are certain high impact economic reports on USD yet to be published, there are certain chance of an upcoming counter in the impulsive bullish trend by the end of the week.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently quite corrective with the gains after an impulsive bullish move bouncing off the 0.75 support area. The price is residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well which is expected to push the price higher towards the resistance area of 0.7750-0.7800. The price has already breached the recent lower high which as a result opened the doors for more bulls in the market taking it as an established bullish trend. As the price remains above 0.75 support area the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for 20/12/2017

Despite the fact that Bitcoin begins to hover above $18,000, financial institutions and regulators are still skeptical about the rapid growth in its value. The British head of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), Andrew Bailey argues that Bitcoin is a speculative bubble, and new investors will lose the money invested in this cryptocurrency. The British regulator has expressed concerns about the way of valuing Bitcoin. Considering that the cryptocurrency recorded over 1000% increase in value over 12 months, he predicted that investors would lose all their money:"If you look at what happened this year, you will be careful. We do not know much about what sets the price of Bitcoin. This is a strange commodity, because the supply is maintained all the time. If you want to invest in Bitcoin, be prepared to lose your money - this is my serious warning." Bailey acknowledged that Bitcoin is classified as a commodity, given that its quantity is limited to 21 million coins.

The head of the FCA repeated what the deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Sir John Cunliffe, said in November, warned investors to train before investing in cryptocurrencies. In November, the analyst compared Bitcoin's rise to dot.com bubble from the 90s, emphasizing supply/demand as a driver of Bitcoin's value. According to this report, the supply of virtual currency may be the cause of its loss in the future.

Let's take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market broke through the local support at the level of $17,984 (now resistance) and dropped lower towards the next local support at the level of $15,470. This pull-back is a part of the corrective wave 4, which might get more complex and time-consuming pattern. The key level to the downside is still at $12,686.

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Trading plan for 20/12/2017

The tax reform has been approved by the House of Representatives. Today, the vote in the Senate and again in the House of Representatives, because in the last straight senators want to remove three entries. The market is calm. EUR / USD remains close to 1.1850. USD / JPY tests 113.00. In Tokyo, a minimal increase, the worse mood on Chinese exchanges. Yesterday's moderate drops in the Wall Street indexes are also continued by the futures contracts on the S & P500, which are below 2685 points.

On Wednesday 20th of December, the event calendar is light in important news releases. The global investors will keep an eye on Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speech, Canadian Wholesale Sales data and the US Existing Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories data.

EUR/USD analysis for 20/12/2017:

The atmosphere of pre-Christmas laziness clearly reflects on the market participants, who in the last few sessions clearly narrowed the observed volatility. Their attention was effectively turned back to US debt, as the yields of 10yr bonds were shot by 6.5 bps. to the unquoted level from the end of October (2.4590%). The representatives of the Fed - Neel Kashkari and Robert Kaplan - faced the problem of a relatively smooth yield curve. Despite a decidedly different approach to the normalization of monetary policy in the US (leaving the status quo versus three rate hikes in 2018), it is necessary to talk about the compliance of FOMC members who, through the prism of a smoothed risk tail, see a growing risk of recession. Not much should happen today as well, because the trading day seems to be very calm.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to push the price towards the 61%Fibo back again and currently, the price is hovering at this level. The momentum is quite strong as the indicator is above its fifty level and point to the north, so another leg up is being anticipated.

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Market Snapshot: DAX ties to fill the gap

The price of German DAX index has reversed at the technical resistance at the level of 13,336 and currently is trying to fill the gap between the levels of 13,108 - 13,200. If the market will follow with the gap filling scenario, then the next technical support is seen at the level of 12,953.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD tests the resistance again

The price of USD/CAD has tested the resistance level of 1.2919 for the fourth time, but the momentum is clearly lower than before. So far the market did not make a new high, so the price starts to reverse again. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2836 and 1.2715.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 20, 2017

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All our targets which were predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair is still expected to trade in a lower range. The pair is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for further downside.

Therefore, as long as 0.6995 holds on the upside, look for a further drop with targets at 0.6940 and 0.6920 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7015, 0.7030, and 0.7060

Support levels: 0.6940, 0.6920, and 0.6875

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USD/CAD for December 20, 2017

There was a false breakout yesterday in the USD/CAD pair. Price broke above 1.2910 but sharply reversed back below 1.2870. This is not a bullish sign. At least for the short term.

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Red line - long-term resistance

The USD/CAD pair is trading above the 4-hour Kumo (cloud). Trend is bullish as long as price is above 1.2840. Price made a reversal pattern with a false breakout yesterday. This is a bearish sign. Support is at 1.2840-1.2780. As long as price is above this area, bulls still hope for a clear break above 1.29. Resistance at 1.29 is very important because if it is broken, the target will be around 1.31-1.32.

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Red line - long-term resistance

On a daily basis, price is above the Kumo (cloud) support. Price has hit the resistance trend line at the 1.29 area 3 times so far. A break above it will be a very bullish signal that would push price towards 1.31-1.32. Critical support is at 1.2730. Break below it and we could be starting a big decline towards 1.20.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USD/JPY for December 20, 2017

The USD/JPY pair is in a bullish trend. A short-term pullback has most probably finished at 112 and I'm now expecting a move towards 114.50-115. Confirmation for this will come with the daily close above 113.50.

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The USD/JPY pair has bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as shown above in the 4-hour chart at the 112 price level. Price has not stayed for a long time below the 4-hour cloud and is now trying to break above it. A 4-hour close above 113.20 will be a bullish short-term sign. Price is making higher highs and higher lows. Support is at 112.33 and resistance at 113.20-113.30.

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Red line- resistance--

The USD/JPY pair is inside the Daily Kumo (cloud). Trend is neutral in the daily chart. The resistance trend line is at 113.20-113.30. If we close above it, I expect the equal extension of the first rise to push this second bullish wave towards 115. An extended rise will push price towards 117. Cloud resistance is the same in the daily chart with the trend line resistance. This increases the importance of the resistance level of 113.20-133.30.

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Trading plan 12/20/2017

Trading plan 12/20/2017

The general picture: the ranges before the news.

Markets will receive the last portion of news on December 21-22 (data on US GDP, inflation).

It is also important what prospects investors see in 2018.

At the moment, there is an opinion that the euro will continue to rise in the first half of 2018 - and we will see a breakthrough of 1.2080 upward.

It looks more interesting to buy at the moment - buy for a breakthrough of 1.1865

For GBPUSD:

The hard range is outlined, there is a sense of playing to break through the boundaries, as seen in the picture below:

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for December 20, 2017

The Dollar index is testing important short-term cloud support at 93.30. Will it make a triple bottom and bounce? Trend crucial support is at 92.50-93. Breaching that level will be a bearish sign.

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Red rectangle - resistance

Black rectangle - support

The Dollar index is still trading inside the 4-hour Kumo. Trend is neutral. Price has respected so far the 93.30 support but bulls will need to show more signs of strength in order for the upward trend to resume. Resistance remains at 94-94.20. Shorter-term resistance is at 93.75 at the upper cloud boundary.

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On a weekly basis the rejection at the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) is a bearish sign. Breaking below last week's low will be a new bearish sign. Closing this week near the 94 level or higher will be a bullish sign. As long as price is above 92.50 I continue to believe that the most probable scenario will be for the Dollar index to move higher towards 96-97.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for December 20, 2017

USD/CAD is currently trading below the resistance area of 1.29 after recent impulsive bullish pressure. The price has been trapped inside the corrective range of 1.27 to 1.29 for a few months. Meanwhile, bulls have been the most dominant side with consistent gains. Recently due to the Federal Funds Rate hike, USD gained good momentum over CAD, so that the price is expected to move much higher in the coming days. Nevertheless, any positive economic report from Canada this month may help to offset the impulsive bullish pressure. Today, Canada's Wholesale Sales report is expected to show an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 1.2% which is expected to have a minimal impact on the CAD progress in the coming days. On the USD side, today Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 5.53M from the previous figure of 5.48M and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit to -3.6M from the previous figure of -5.1M. Additionally, on Thursday (tomorrow) US Final GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.3%. Besides, Canada's CPI is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1% and Core Retail Sales is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3%. As for the current scenario, the pair is likely to trade with higher volatility by tomorrow. So, we can have some decent understanding about the upcoming directional movement in the pair. Though USD has already have the upper hand over CAD, any positive economic report from Canada tomorrow may lead to strong CAD resilience inside the corrective range area.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has recently rejected off the resistance level of 1.29 which led to further bearish pressure which is currently visible today. The pair is trading above the dynamic level of 20 EMA inside the corrective range between 1.27 and 1.29. As the price remains below 1.29 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue to push the price towards 1.27 in the coming days. In any case, if the price breaks above 1.2900, the bullish pressure is expected to strengthen and push the price higher towards 1.30 and later towards 1.3250 resistance area in the future.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for December 20, 2017

Gold price is still near its highs around $1,265-66. The resistance area above current levels is very important and I continue to expect prices to move lower towards $1,220-$1,230. First weakness sign will be the break below $1,260. Yesterday we saw some signs of weakness but no confirmed reversal yet.

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Blue lines - bearish wedge

Gold price is giving bearish divergence signs by the RSI while trading above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart. Support is at $1,260. I'm bearish at current levels expecting a sharp decline towards $1,240 at least. Resistance is at $1,268.

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On a daily basis Gold price is testing the resistance by the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Price is below the daily Kumo (cloud). This is bearish. If price gets rejected at current levels as we expect, then we should see a move lower towards at least the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) at $1,250. A daily close below $1,250 will open the way for a move towards $1,220.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY reversing nicely below major resistance

The price has started to form a really nice reversal pattern with bearish divergence being formed. We look to sell below major resistance at 86.67 (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) for a push down to at least 84.69 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 98% where we expect a corresponding drop from. We're also seeing bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 86.67. Stop loss is at 87.34 Take profit is at 84.69.

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USD/JPY right below major resistance, time to sell!

The price is now testing major resistance at 113.10 (Fibonacci retracement, Multiple Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level to drive the price down to at least 112.08 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Fibonacci retracement).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance at 98% where we expect a corresponding reaction from.

Sell below 113.10. Stop loss is at 113.50. Take profit is at 112.08.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 20, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Belgian NBB Business Climate, Current Account, and German PPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories and Existing Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1901.

Strong Resistance:1.1894.

Original Resistance: 1.1883.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1872.

Target Inner Area: 1.1844.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1816.

Original Support: 1.1805.

Strong Support: 1.1794.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1787.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 20, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories and Existing Home Sales. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.47.

Resistance. 2: 113.25.

Resistance. 1: 113.03.

Support. 1: 112.76.

Support. 2: 112.54.

Support. 3: 112.32.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 20, 2017

USDX still trades in a sideways range and remains capped by the resistance level of 94.09. The risk to the downside is high and once the level of 93.30 gives up, we will be expecting a leg lower to test the support zone of 92.83. The MACD indicator supports the bearish bias in the short-term, as it remains in the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.09 / 94.85

H1 chart's support levels: 93.30 / 92.83

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.30, take profit is at 92.83 and stop loss is at 93.76.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 20, 2017

GBP/USD is finding dynamic resistance once again in the 200 SMA at the H1 chart. The next target to the upside still lies at 1.3444, as the bears are trying to push lower to the pair. Fractals are indicating a possible bullish continuation and if it manages to consolidate above 1.3444, it's expected to test the 1.3516 level.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3444 / 1.3516

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3303 / 1.3234

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3444, take profit is at 1.3516 and stop loss is at 1.3372.

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Daily analysis of Gold for December 19, 2017

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Overview

The Gold price tested 1,263.15 level. The metal still closes below it on a daily basis, accompanied by stochastic which is reaching the overbought areas now. The chances are still valid to resume the bearish bias in the upcoming sessions. We are waiting until the 1,240.85 level is visited. Therefore, the bearish trend will remain active for today. Let me remind you that breaking the target level will extend price losses to reach 1,204.81 while breaching 1,263.15 represents the first positive key for the price to return to the main bullish track again. The expected trading range for today is between 1,245.00 support and 1,270.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for December 19, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair provided slightly positive trades yesterday to test the EMA50, which forms negative pressure that supports the chances of continuing the decline in the upcoming period. In general, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for today conditioned by holding below 113.00, reminding you that the expected targets begin at 111.90 and extend to 111.00 after breaking the previous level. The expected trading range for today is between 111.70 support and 113.30 resistance.

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BITCOIN Analysis for December 19, 2017

Recently Bitcoin has been quite bearish in nature with increased in volatility and a significant decrease in price. After bouncing off the $19,600 price area, Bitcoin is currently residing just above the $16,600 to $17,400 support area which is expected to be touched very soon. The bullish pressure seemed to have worn out ahead of the Christmas as most of the market players seem to have moved their investments to other Cryptocurrencies which are much cheaper than Bitcoin like Ethereum and Litecoin. As of the recent introduction of the Bitcoin futures by CME and CBOE, the bears are in more charge as traders can even make money by shorting the Bitcoin now. As of the current scenario, the price is expected to proceed towards the support area of $16,600 to $17,400 before bouncing off higher towards $20,000 price area by the end of December. As the price remains above $16,600 price level the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for December 19, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair has begun to gather new positive momentum to attempt to get rid of the sideways bias domination, reinforcing its attempts to resume the expected bullish attack, in general, we will keep depending on the stability of the initial support at 150.00, waiting for its rally to 152.85 level, which forms the initial positive station. Stochastic forms bullish wave reinforces the bullish stability, opening the way towards gathering new bullish momentum, to ease the attempt of reaching the mentioned target. The expected trading range for today is between 150.00 and 152.85.

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Daily analysis of Silver for December 19, 2017

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Overview

Silver price is set to decline, but is still stable around 16.00 level, while stochastic is reaching the overbought area now. To gain downward momentum, we expect the price to resume the bearish bias in the upcoming period with the main target level of 15.49 which will be tested. Therefore, we still suggest the bearish trend on the intraday and short-term basis, supported by the EMA50, unless the price manages to rally upwards to breach 16.56 level and hold with a daily close above it. The expected trading range for today is between 15.90 support and 16.20 resistance.

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