Global macro overview for 21/09/2018

The PMI reading for the Eurozone confirmed what was obvious after the data from Germany and France was published. The mood in the industrial sector has deteriorated, which is not beginning to be reversed. It is just the opposite. The index for Eurozone dropped from 54.6 to 53.3 points (versus a forecast of 54.5 points).

The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) assesses business conditions in manufacturing, construction and service sectors. The Eurozone PMI is both a significant and timely indicator of business conditions and the general health of the economy. Close correlation with the business cycle, assessed on the basis of long-term statistical data, allows using the PMI indicator for prognosis of future GDP volumes. The PMI indices are based on selected panels of executives in companies who report each month on real events. The subindex of intangibles sector - PMI services - is of more importance because in industrialized countries around 70% of GDP is generated in the non-manufacturing sector.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Such weak data cool down the eagerness to buy the euro across the board. EUR / USD went down to 1.1770, or about 40 pips under the daily highs, which is the nearest resistance (the next is at the level of 1,1850). The technical support is seen at the level of 1.1740-50 and then at the level of 1.1655. It will be very important weekly candle close and the key level of interest is the area of 1.1750, where demand should be activated.

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Global macro overview for 21/09/2018

Statistics Canada reports that the Canadian Retail Sales in July are growing by 0.3% in monthly terms to the level of $ 50.9 billion due to higher sales of food, beverages and fuels. Market measurements that exclude the most volatile components of sales turned out to be much more important for the market. In this perspective, the retail sales ratio grows by 0.9% m / m - well above forecasts of 0.6%.

Stronger retail sales are emphasized by sufficiently high CPI. Consumer inflation on an annual basis is growing in August by 2.8% compared to the previous year, which is a value consistent with the market consensus. The change in monthly terms indicates a slight (0.1%) decline in the index.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Surprisingly good data and the return of the Canadian minister to the US in order to continue trading talks make bulls buy CAD-related pairs across the board. In the first minutes after the publication of today's report, USD/CAD tested the region of yesterday's low, where the USD buyers emphasized their presence. The pair has been in a clear downward trend for quite some time. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2887.

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BITCOIN Analysis for September 21, 2018

Bitcoin has managed to jump higher above $6,500 area and dynamic level of 20 EMA amid impulsive bullish pressure that indicates further bullish momentum for the coming days. The price finally managed to break out of the range which is also a positive sign of growth for the cryptocurrency which also explains the bullish force in Bitcoin which will push the price higher in the future. Meanwhile, the price is still quite impulsive amid the bullish pressure. If it remains stable until the day close, the price is expected to extend gains towards the resistance area of $7,500 and later towards $8,000 in the coming days. As the price remains above $6,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 6000, 6500

RESISTANCE: 7500, 8000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for September 21, 2018

NZD/USD has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish gains which lead the price towards 0.6720 area with a view of making more higher highs. While USD has been struggling for gains amid downbeat economic reports, NZD fround support from economic reports during the week that helped NZD to sustain the bullish momentum against USD in the process.

Recently New Zealand GDP report was published with an increase to 1.0% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at 0.8%. The positive economic result provided the impulsive push to NZD in the process whereas increase of GDP by 100% was very significant and signals clearly further bullish pressure in the pair. Today New Zealand Visitors Arrivals report was also published with an increase to 2.8% from the previous value of 0.7% and Credit Card Spending increased to 7.7% from the previous value of 3.3%. As RBNZ's policy of keeping low interest rates played out very well, the economy awaits further inflation for the economic growth in the future.

On the USD side, mixed economic reports provided certain pressure against NZD at the beginning of the day but it could not sustain due to New Zealand's better economic data in comparison. Today US Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to show a slight increase to 55.1 from the previous figure of 54.7 and Flash Services PMI is also expected to increase to 54.9 from the previous figure of 54.8.

Meanwhile, NZD is advantageous to USD. Besides, NZD is expected to continue dominating further against USD in the process. Until the US reveals solid economic reports or events, NZD is expected to continue its advance.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has retested 0.6600 area today with certain bearish pressure which could not sustain much longer in the process. The price is currently heading towards 0.6720 area while being supported by the long-term Bullish Divergence recently which may lead the price much higher towards 0.6850 area in the future. As the price remains above 0.6600 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.6600, 0.6500

RESISTANCE: 0.6720, 0.6850

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE

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Bitcoin analysis for September 21, 2018

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Recently, Bitcoin has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $6.707. According to the H1 time – frame, I found the strong upward momentum and the breakout of key resistance at the price of $6.500. I also found that rising trendline in the background and my advice is to watch for potential pullback to buy. The upward targets are set at the price of $6.855 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%) and at the price of $7.000. The area from $6.855 and $7.000 is also a strong distribution zone.

Blue line – expected price path

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for September 21, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1802. Anyway, according to the M30 time – frame, I found the fake breakout of yesterday's high at the price of 1.1784, which is a sign of weakness. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1740 and at the price of 1.1720.

Blue line – expected price path

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Control zones of EUR / USD pair for September 21

Yesterday, the implementation of the priority upward model that allowed the pair to gain a foothold above the determining level of resistance at 1.1707. Any depreciation should be regarded as a correction.

Strong growth during the Thursday European and American sessions allowed us to step out of the medium-term accumulation zone. Closure of the American session occurred above the weekly control zone of 1.1728-1.1710. This suggests that the next growth target will be the a control zone of 1.1829-1.1820, formed from the previous zone. This fact allows you to search for favorable prices for purchases with a fall in the pair. The first support will be made by a control zone of 1.1739-1.1735, the test of which will give an opportunity to consider purchases as a limit order and through a pattern.

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The medium-term support will be the already described level of 1.1707, which for a long time was a strong resistance. While the pair is trading above this level, the upward movement will remain an impulse.

To stop the growth and form a deep correction model, the pattern of false breakdown of the current extremum of the week will be required. The fall should exceed the length of a control zone formed from today's high. If this happens, then it will be possible to buy the instrument at a more favorable price for the a control zone of 1.1695-1.1686, which is the determining support.

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The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones of GBP / USD pair for September 21

Yesterday's growth led to the test of two important target zones. The weekly control zone of 1.3312-1.3288 was reached, located within the monthly CP of September. This fact significantly increases the likelihood of a large offer.

Finding the price within the monthly CP indicates the need to close all purchases. The first support is the a control zone of 1.3237-1.3231. To form a reversal model, you may need to renew the weekly maximum, so the emergence of the demand for an opportunity to buy a tool.

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Sales from current marks do not yet have a favorable risk-to-profit ratio, as there is no formation of an absorption model, which indicates a high probability of a weekly maximum update.

The support will be made by the a control zone of 1.3177-1.3165, the test of which will allow obtaining favorable prices for the purchase. The ratio of risk to profit will be 1 to 3 for transactions in the specified zone with a stop not exceeding 30 points. This allows you to open long positions with limit orders or buy a pound through a pattern. The reversal model will be developed if the closing of today's US session occurs below the level of 1.3165. This will allow us to look for favorable prices for the sale of the instrument on Monday.

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The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone is formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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USD / CHF. Franc rises in price due to the weakness of the dollar

The September meeting of the Swiss Central Bank passed quietly and imperceptibly. The summit in Salzburg, US-China relations and events on the oil market overshadowed the meeting of the members of the Swiss regulator. Traders did not expect any unexpected moves from the SNB, and their expectations were fully justified. The central bank repeated the theses, voiced earlier, like a copy.

Let me remind you that three years ago, the SNB "untied" the euro from the national currency (which was at the level of 1.20) and since then considers the value of the franc too high in relation to other currencies, and especially to the single currency. The head of the SNB, Thomas Jordan, declares this regularly, at almost every meeting of the regulator. For the same reason, the Central Bank does not see any reason to tighten its current monetary policy. Experts believe that the SNB will not consider the possibility of changing its policy before the second half of 2020, therefore the meetings of the Swiss regulator may affect the dynamics of the franc only if Jordan decides to lower the interest rate further into the negative area. However, such a scenario is also unlikely.

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Despite such a nondescript information story, the pair USD / CHF fell more than a hundred points yesterday, and today, it continued to decline, having already reached the April lows. The phlegmatic SNB could not provide the franc with such impulse growth, so in this case, the reason is the general weakening of the dollar.

To be more precise, the initial reason for changing the interests of traders is to reduce the overall geopolitical tensions. An inter-Korean summit held in Pyongyang with the participation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in neutralized concerns over the North Korean problem. The leaders of the two Koreas at the first meeting over the past 10 years were able to agree on many key issues. In particular, the profile ministers signed a military agreement (details of which, however, were not disclosed). In addition, North Korea has pledged to close and dismantle its nuclear test site, and in the presence of representatives of international organizations. In general, the meeting was held "in a warm and friendly atmosphere," as they used to say in Soviet newspapers.

It should be recalled that on the eve of the inter-Korean summit, President Donald Trump accused China that he had withdrawn from the process of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula because of the trade war with the United States. But the outcome of the bilateral meeting suggests that the DPRK is still on the way to disarmament, despite earlier statements of the opposite nature. Beijing has a strong political influence on Pyongyang, so the "shadow of the Chinese" is certainly present here, and therefore Trump will have fewer reasons for criticizing the PRC in this context.

This fact reduced the demand for defensive assets, including the US dollar, which recently enjoys this status. The resumed talks between Washington and Ottawa on the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) provided additional support to risky currencies to the detriment of defensive instruments. The US-China trade conflict also stopped supporting the growth of the dollar. The de facto market ignored the exchange of duties, thus puzzling many market participants.

Some of them say that traders were preparing for more stringent measures (in particular, to 25 percent duties, and not 10 percent), whereas the White House chose a relatively soft option. Other analysts see a deeper reason for the decline in the dollar. In their opinion, greenback is getting cheaper already because of the trade war, as the market saw risks for the growth of the American economy. Weak inflation data, paired with the ongoing trade conflict, can affect the resolve of the Fed's members regarding the rate of interest rate increase. Secondary macroeconomic indicators, released this week (the volume of issued construction permits and sales of housing in the secondary market), also found themselves in the "red zone", demonstrating a slowdown. Given the fact that the Fed's September meeting will be held next week, the market begins to discuss possible scenarios of the development of events, and this fact also exerts pressure on the dollar.

However, the voiced options do not contradict and do not exclude each other. The dollar is under a certain pressure of the fundamental picture and only the "hawkish" meeting of the Federal Reserve is able to return the force of greenback for a large-scale restoration. Until then, the US currency will be vulnerable enough, including paired with the franc.

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From a technical point of view, the situation is as follows. The pair on the daily chart is under the pressure of the southern trend, which is confirmed by the bearish signal "Parade of lines" indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. Also, the downward motion vector is confirmed by the placement of the price on the bottom line of the indicator Bollinger Bands with attempts to test it. The medium-term target of the downward movement of the pair is the 0.9500 mark, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the weekly chart.

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Analysis of Gold for September 21, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,205.30. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found potential ending of the upward correction (abc flat) in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found the breakout of the most recent support trendline, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,201.00 and at the price of $1,192.80.

Blue line – expected price path

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR and GBP: the next talks about the results of the Brexit agreement supported the euro and pound

The latest news that the EU and the UK are moving in the right direction to reach an agreement on Brexit as quickly as possible led to the growth of risky assets, including the euro and the pound against the US dollar, which allowed monthly maximum to be updated in the currency pairs EUR / USD and GBP / USD.

Brexit

The statements made yesterday by EU representative Donald Tusk were aimed at the need to achieve maximum progress in negotiations on Brexit in October this year. According to his forecasts, both countries will approach the final stage of the talks in November. According to Tusk, the main emphasis in the joint statement on ties after Brexit should be made on the clarity of all the conditions and rules that will be strictly followed in the future.

On the same day, following Tusk's speech, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that the UK is working to reach an agreement on Brexit by October this year.

Let me remind you that the leaders of the European Union rejected the proposal of the British Prime Minister concerning economic relations with the bloc after Brexit. In the EU, they do not consider it necessary that after Brexit a new trade agreement between the EU and Great Britain creates a threat of undermining the internal market of the bloc. The UK government, on the contrary, is trying to gain unhindered access for British companies to industrial goods markets and EU farmers' markets.

Fundamental Statistics

Yesterday, a number of fundamental reports on the US economy came out, which did not provide serious support to the US dollar.

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has declined. For the week, from September 9 to September 15, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 3,000 and amounted to 201,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 210,000.

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Production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in September increased. The growth is directly related to the increase in new orders and supplies. According to the report of the Fed-Philadelphia, the index of business activity in September 2018 rose to 22.9 points from 11.9 points in August, while economists expected that the index in September will be 15 points.

Data on the housing market were ignored by traders. According to the report of the National Association of Realtors NAR, sales in the secondary housing market in the US in August this year remained unchanged, amounting to 5.34 million homes per year. Economists had expected that sales would amount to 5.38 million in August. Compared to the same period of the previous year, sales in August fell by 1.5%.

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Technical picture EUR / USD

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, the upside potential will be limited, as the market is in overbought stage. The formation of a false breakout at the highs of this month 1.1790 may lead to a larger downward correction in risky assets. It is best to consider new long positions after the major support levels in the 1.1740 and 1.1715 areas have been reduced and updated.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for September 21. New resistance for the pound sterling

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on September 20, the GBP / USD currency pair added about 130 percentage points and continued, thus, the construction of the proposed wave 3 of a new uptrend section of the trend. A failed attempt to break the 200.0% Fibonacci level pushes the idea of the tool's willingness to construct a downward correction wave. The pair also found strong resistance in the form of a level of 161.8% in the senior Fibonacci grid. A successful attempt to break through the level of 161.8% will lead to a new growth of the British pound sterling.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3275 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.3426 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1,3049 - 200.0% of Fibonacci (the highest grid)

1.2636 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (the highest grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed the construction of the third wave. A failed breakthrough attempt at 1.3275 could push the pair down a little, but in general, the whole wave 3 can get even more extended. Thus, a successful attempt to break through 1.3275 will allow to buy again the pair with the targets that are near the calculated mark of 1.3426, which corresponds to 261.8% of Fibonacci.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for September 21. The pair confirmed the construction of the third wave

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on Thursday, the currency pair EUR / USD added about 100 percentage points and thus confirmed the transition of the pair to the stage of constructing the upward wave 3, a. If this is the case, then the increase in quotes will continue with the targets located near the levels of 127.2% and 161.8% of Fibonacci, constructed in wave 2, a. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 127.2% mark may lead to the withdrawal of quotations from the peaks reached, but the current wave counting implies a stronger rise in quotations.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1525 - 0.0% of Fibonacci retracement

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1,1791 - 127.2% of Fibonacci retracement

1.1844 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair remains in the stage of constructing wave 3, a. Thus, I recommend buying a pair with targets near the calculated mark of 1.1864, not missing the thought that from the level of 127.2%, there may be a retreat. If there is no release, then the increase in quotations will continue. I do not recommend selling the pair, as there are no prerequisites for completing the ascending trend segment.

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The review of the foreign exchange market as of September 21, 2018

Yesterday was a really interesting and eventful day. Especially considering how much the dollar was significantly cheaper. If you look at the statistics, it is completely unclear why the single European currency and the pound so swiftly rushed up. In particular, the growth rate of retail sales in the UK slowed from 3.8% to 3.3%, although it is worth noting that they forecast a slowdown to 2.3%. And although the British statistics were better than the forecasts, the US did not lag behind it, as the data on applications for unemployment benefits surpassed the boldest expectations. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits did not increase by 6 thousand, but decreased by 3 thousand, from 204 thousand to 201 thousand. Also, the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits did not increase by 5 thousand, and decreased by as much as 55 thousand, from 1,700 thousand to 1 645 thousand. And although the statistics clearly favored the dollar, it only engaged in that, and lost its position.

Investors panicked after the US quite routinely expanded the list of Russian legal entities and individuals subject to sanctions. But in addition to this, the United States imposed sanctions against a number of individuals and companies from China for the fact that China buys Russian military equipment. The fact is that China has been buying military equipment in Russia for decades, and earlier, it only caused traditional accusations against the Celestial Empire in excessive aggression. Such dramatic changes in the behavior of the White House cause only one thought: is the US preparing for a war with China? The very formulation of such a question can cause a heart attack, given the size of the armies of both countries and the number of nuclear weapons at their disposal. So the policy, which, although it is a consequence of objective economic factors, has become the reason for the flight from the dollar.

True, people's memory is short, so that the White House's foreign policy somber will go to the background, and market participants will again monitor macroeconomic data. Today in the US, there are preliminary data on business activity indices, which should show their growth.

But in Europe, similar data is likely to show a decline in business activity indices, and only the index of business activity in the service sector may remain unchanged. So if no new political statements are followed, then the single European currency should fall to 1.1750.

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In the UK, there are data on public sector borrowing, which may increase by 2.9 billion pounds. Given the previous month, they fell by 2.9 billion pounds, the trend is clearly not the most positive, so that the pound has no reason to grow. Thus, we should expect the pound to fall to 1.3175.

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The trading plan as of September 21, 2018

The trading plan as of September 21, 2018

The general picture: Strong technique, unclear foundation.

On Thursday, the main pair of the currency market EUR / USD gave a strong growth signal against the dollar. Strong zones of resistance 1.1725 - 1.1750 were broken, a strong closing of the day. The growth pattern is supported by the franc and pound (against the dollar). The picture is mixed in part by the fact that the yen is falling against the dollar.

Fundamentally, the picture is unclear. At the EU summit, Britain, the parties did not agree on the relationship after Brexit, and this, of course, is not positive. At the same time, there are reports that British Prime Minister May is ready to propose new variants of the agreement.

In the United States, new duties are ready to impose against China on Monday, September 24, for goods in the amount of $ 200 billion. China, according to statements, will immediately introduce reciprocal duties for $ 60 billion of goods from the United States. Trump previously threatened, in the case of China's response, to impose duties on another $ 267 billion of goods from China. This is certainly negative but European currencies are growing against the dollar.

Pound: We are ready to buy with a pullback from 1.3140.

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Weak Dollar inspired markets

The dollar on Thursday was adjusted against all major world currencies, except the yen. The immediate reason for the correction is the decline in global risks, which is reflected not only in the recovery of developing countries' currencies and raw material prices, but also in the rather unexpected growth of gold, which can be regarded as a reaction to a weakening dollar.

Markets suddenly realized that the strength of the US economy can be greatly exaggerated. Consumer demand is supported by the growth of lending, while the savings rate has been stable for the past three years, that is, a robust job market recovery has not led to increased financial stability.

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While the markets do not doubt that the Fed will raise the rate twice this year, the question is whether the US economy will withstand tightening of monetary policy, and whether the recession will slip even before the growth cycle completed.

The dollar on Friday will be under pressure, the drop could stall if Markit in preliminary data for September shows an increase in business activity.

Eurozone

The euro is enthusiastic after Peter Praet, chief economist at the ECB, made an unexpected statement, pointing out that a robust wage growth in the euro zone gives the regulator the right to consider a moderate rate of the rate hike that could begin implementation after the first increase next year.

Supports the euro and the non-standard reaction of the market to the results of the NBS meeting, which has kept the stimulating monetary policy unchanged. The yield of the 10-year state bonds of Switzerland was a plus before the meeting, however, without getting the expected confirmation of the probability of a change in the economic course, it does not hurry to fall, which may mean the growing confidence of the market that the preservation of the current stimulating policy of the NBS will not last long.

The currency pair EUR / USD has overcome the resistance level of 1.1733, the upward momentum is still strong, which gives grounds for expecting continued growth. During the day, a successful test of 1.1850 is possible.

The United Kingdom

Contrary to fears, retail prices showed good growth in August, slightly worsening the figures for July, but exceeding forecasts. On an annual basis, growth was 3.3% vs. a forecast of 2.3%, concerns about the fundamental nature of the slowdown in consumer inflation are not yet confirmed, which has a stimulating effect on the pound.

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Negotiations between the European Union and Britain on the issue of the latter's exit from the EU have not yet yielded a positive result. The head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker said after the meeting, despite the fact that he hopes to conclude a deal in October, the EU is ready for a scenario in which the deal will not take place. In turn, the British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond asked the EU leadership to help create an emergency plan of action in case the exit is really tough.

The pound, using the weakness of the dollar, will continue to grow with a high probability. To overcome 1.3292 with the first attempt failed. Today, more successful attempt is possible, after which the target will move to the level of 1.3362.

Oil and ruble

The US president, realizing the powerlessness to force the OPEC countries + to change the policy of regulating the level of production in accordance with demand, began to blackmail OPEC countries with military force yesterday. The decline in oil quotations was short-term, oil traded near the highs in anticipation of the meeting of OPEC + in Algeria on September 23, at which decisions on increasing production and redistributing quotas are possible. Until new data appear, strong oil movements are unlikely.

The ruble did not react to another expansion of sanctions against Russia, since such steps have long been taken into account by the market as inevitable. No changes in Russia's foreign or domestic policies will lead to a weakening of sanctions pressure on the Russian economy. The decision of the Central Bank to suspend purchases of currency before the end of 2018 contributes to the strengthening of the ruble, and the growth rate of the economy and a positive trade balance are sufficient for the formation of a surplus budget and the growth of gold and foreign exchange reserves. The ruble is trading near the level of 66.20, it is possible to return to the range of 65 ... 66 rubles / dollar.

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GBP / USD. September 21. The trading system "Regression channels". The pair showed strong growth and is ready for correction

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

CCI: 152.9145

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday, September 20, resumed the upward movement, and quite unexpectedly. No, from a technical point of view, everything is logical. An upward trend is maintained, there were no signs of its completion or a strong correction. But why did the movement intensify? Especially considering the fact that the price of Euro was also rising? It is unlikely that the report on UK retail sales, which turned out to be significantly better than expected by traders, could provoke the euro's growth. However, both European currencies strengthened yesterday. Thus, we are forced to connect this event with the EU summit, at which Brexit issues were discussed. And although, as the results of this summit showed, no fundamentally new agreements were reached, moreover, key issues remain unresolved, traders seem to believe that the matter is moving towards its logical conclusion in the form of a "soft" scenario for Britain's withdrawal from the EU. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain what is happening. On the last trading day of the week, the calendar of macroeconomic events in the UK is empty, while the states will publish insignificant preliminary values of business activity indexes in the services and production sectors. Thus, today, traders can begin to record profits on yesterday's long, which is likely to lead to the beginning of a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3245

S2 - 1.3184

S3 - 1.3123

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed its upward movement. Today, a correction is expected, the Heikin Ashi turn down will confirm its start with the aim of moving the middle line. Overcoming the level of 1.3306 will serve as a signal for the opening of new purchase orders.

Sell-positions can be considered after securing the pair below the moving average line. However, this is unlikely to happen today, as the price is far enough from the moving-house.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 21, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

Recently, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery towards 1.1830. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1800.

On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped below the depicted technical levels (1.1750 - 1.1850). As for the bearish side of the market to be dominant, the pair should keep trading below 1.1750.

However, the price level of 1.1520 stood as a prominent demand level where the current bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.1700 was initiated.

Another Bullish movement was expected towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750) which failed to demonstrate any kind of bearish rejection. That's why, another bullish breakout above 1.1750 was demonstrated yesterday.

As expected, conservative traders should be expecting further bullish advancement towards 1.1850 provided that the EUR/USD pair keeps trading above 1.1750.

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EUR / USD. September 21. The trading system "Regression channels". EU summit: key questions on Brexit remain unresolved

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

The moving average (20; flattened) is up.

–°CI: 187.6987

The currency pair EUR / USD on the September 20 auction soared, like the currency pair GBP / USD. Since there have been no important reports from Donald Trump and his trading partners against whom Trump is actively introducing duties, we attribute such a serious strengthening of the euro and the pound to the EU summit at which Brexit's issues were discussed. Recall that until November, there is not so much time. Prior to the final meeting, on which the Brexit treaty should be signed, another meeting will be held between the EU and the UK. Yesterday, there were no breakthroughs in the negotiations. The offer of the economic partnership of London was rejected. French President Emmanuel Macron said that the UK wants to stay in it, leaving the EU, but it will not work. In turn, Theresa May reported that there was no counter offer on the Irish issue, which would respect the integrity of the United Kingdom. Thus, no concrete results of the talks were reached. Nevertheless, the markets responded favorably to the very fact of the talks and actively bought the euro and pound in the hope that the parties would still manage to disperse amicably. This is already another case when the pound, and now the euro, grow on rumors and expectations on the topic of Brexit. We state the fact: the key issues in which there are disagreements remain unresolved, which keeps a high probability that there will be no deal.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.1719

S2 = 1.1658

S3 - 1,1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1780

R2 - 1.1841

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD resumed the upward movement. Thus, if the spent target of 1.1780 is overcome, then the long lines can be held with the target of 1.1841. The turn of Heikin Ashi down will serve as a signal to the manual reduction of positions.

Orders for sale will become relevant not earlier than fixing the price below the moving average with the first target level of Murray "7/8" - 1.1658. In this case, the initiative will pass into the hands of bears.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 21, 2018

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Previously, The GBP/USD pair was testing the depicted downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090. This week, the pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.

This price zone (1.3025-1.3090) also corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Currently, this price zone turned to become a prominent demand zone to be watched for bullish price action.

The GBP/USD pair continues to demonstrate its uptrend within the depicted bullish channel on H4 chart.

Please take into consideration that the lower limit of the depicted channel comes to meet the GBP/USD pair around 1.3190 (key-level for today's consolidations). This price level should be defended by the bulls to maintain enough bullish momentum.

As long as the current bullish breakout above 1.3090 (Demand level-1) is maintained, further bullish advance should be expected towards 1.3300 and 1.3390 (reversal pattern final target).

On the other hand, any bearish decline below 1.3190 (lower limit of the channel) leads directly towards 1.3090 (Demand level-1).

Moreover, any bearish decline below 1.3090 (Demand level-1) will probably invalidate the bullish scenario for the short-term. Hence, the pair would have lower targets around 1.3010 (Demand level-2).

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for September 21. Euro-currency broke through local highs

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart cleared the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1675, the turn in favor of the European currency and the growth to the level of Fibo 100.0% - 1.1791. Quit of quotations from the correction level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the EU currency and a slight drop towards the Fibo level of 76.4%. On September 21, there are no divergent divergences. Fixing the pair above the correction level of 100.0% will increase the probability of continuing growth towards the next Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1927.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair's quotes nevertheless fulfilled the growth to the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1789. The rebound of quotes from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Brewing divergences are not observed today. The consolidation of the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1938.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

New purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1927 with a stop loss order under the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair completes the closing above the correction level of 1.1791.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the target of 1.1675 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair retires from the correction level of 1.1791.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for September 21. The bullish divergence sent the pound to new heights

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4h

The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator allowed the GBP / USD currency pair to resume the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% - 1.3316. Today, there are no new brewing divergences in any indicator. The pair's retreat from the Fibo level of 38.2% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the correction level of 23.6% to 1.3067. Fixing the quotes above the Fibo level of 38.2% will increase the chances of continuing growth towards the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.3516.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from April 17, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

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On the hourly chart, the pair executed a reversal in favor of the British currency and a rise to the correction level of 200.0% - 1.3301 with a rebound from it. As a result, a reversal in favor of the US dollar began and a drop in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.3202 began. Brewing divergences are not observed today. Fixing the quotes above the Fibo level of 200.0% will increase the chances for further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 261.8% - 1.3462.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 30, 2018, and September 5, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out for the purpose of 1.3462 and a stop loss order under the correction level of 200.0% if a close above the Fibo level is 1.3301 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can now be carried out with a target of 1.3202 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 200.0%, since the pair has completed the retreat from the Fibo level 1.3301.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on September 21. Buyers managed to maintain an uptrend

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The breakthrough of major resistance led to a new "portion" of purchases of the British pound and the renewal of the next monthly highs. Currently, the bulls' goal is the intermediate resistance of 1.3276, the breakthrough of which will be a signal to buy GBP / USD with the purpose of updating the level of 1.3315 and 1.3348, where I recommend fixing the profit. When buying for the breakdown level of 1.3276, it is important to pay attention to the divergence that can be formed on the MACD indicator and which can limit the ascending potential of the pound. More optimal levels for opening long positions are located in the support area of 1.3228 and 1.3165, where it can buy a pound immediately for a rebound.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers will try to form a false breakdown in the area of intermediate resistance of 1.3276, which will be the first signal for the sale of the pound. However, a more interesting scenario for opening short positions will be after the renewal of the resistance level of 1.3315 with the formation of a divergence on the MACD indicator, which can also force traders to shorten long positions in GBP / USD. The main task for today, the sellers of the pound will be the pair's return to the support level of 1.3228, below which the fall will be limited to a minimum of 1.3165.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The 30-day moving average and the 50-day average are directed upward, indicating a continuation of the upward trend.

Bollinger Bands

The growth of the pound may be limited by the upper boundary of the bands near 1.3310-1.3315. Considering new purchases is best after upgrading the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands around 1.3225.

analytics5ba4873137a7e.png

Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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The growth or decline of the dollar will depend on the signals of the Fed

The local weakening of the US currency against all major currencies continues against the backdrop of the continuing hopes that the trade war between the US and China will not reach extreme boiling points.

Recall that at the beginning of the week, the States decided not to increase trade duties on Chinese imports by $ 25 billion by 25% until the new year 2019, and to raise only 10%. This caused a positive reaction of the markets, which was reflected in the demand for risky assets. First of all, shares of companies, commodity, and raw materials were bought. But the US dollar, as expected, was under considerable pressure.

And here, in our opinion, there are two reasons. The first is a decrease in the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe haven on the wave of lowering the tension in the trade relations between Beijing and Washington. A similar picture is observed in the pair US dollar / Japanese yen, where the latter declines relative to the dollar. The second reason is most likely based on the partial fixation of the US dollar's profit before the Fed's monetary policy meeting next week, which is expected to raise the key interest rate for the Federal Funds by 0.25% to 2.25%. Now this probability is estimated at 92.0%.

It is likely that the outcome of the meeting of the regulator will not only raise the interest rate, but there may also be a signal that it should be raised at the end of the year by another 0.25%, to 2.50%. If this signal is followed, and such a probability is extremely high, then the dollar can receive appreciable support and turn up in the currency markets.

Observing its current dynamics, it can be argued that the decline is very restrained both because of the approach of the Fed on Wednesday, on the one hand, and on the other, the understanding by investors that the problems of the trade war between the states and China have not been resolved, second plan. And at any moment, they can again remind themselves that they will necessarily become the basis for the resumption of the growth of the US currency.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair AUD / USD is trading below the level of 0.7300, having reached the resistance line of the medium-term downtrend. If this level stands, there is a probability of a local turn of the pair down to 0.7235.

The currency pair USD / CHF is trading below the level of 0.9600. Franc remains a hostage of geopolitical tensions in the world, as well as turbulent events surrounding the Beijing-Washington trade war. Additional support can be obtained if a general agreement between the EU and Britain on Brexit is not reached. In this case, there is a risk of continued falling prices. Today, if the pair does not rise above 0.9600, it may fall to 0.9535.

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analytics5ba4846f46627.pngThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 21, 2018

analytics5ba36844db08b.pngHence, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.2969 so it will be good to sell at 1.2969 with the first target of 0.9965. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.2796. The daily strong support is seen at 1.2796. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.3057.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 21, 2018

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Overview:

On the one-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.3052 and 1.3159. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.3052, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.3159. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3159. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the first support of 1.3159 with the first target at the level of 1.3294. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.3294. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3294) to test it. If the trend will be able to break the double top at 1.3294, then the GBP/USD will continue towards the next objective of 1.3415. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3052.

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EUR / USD: plan for the European session on September 21. Buy the euro better on the decline to major levels of support

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Yesterday's breakthrough of large resistance has led to new highs, but today, it is necessary to act with caution. Only a breakout and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1788 will lead to a new upward wave with the aim of testing a maximum of 1.1830 and 1.1866, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more optimal scenario for opening long positions in euros can be traced to the support area of 1.1755, when there is a false breakdown there, or to a rebound from 1.1718. When purchasing above 1.1788, pay attention to the MACD indicator, on which a divergence can be formed, which will limit the upside potential.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers will try to form a false breakdown from the level of 1.1788, and a return to it, confirming the divergence on the MACD indicator, will be a good signal for the opening of short positions in order to update support 1.1755 and return to 1.1718, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of good fundamental statistics, which is expected today in the euro area in the first half of the day, and the breakdown of resistance at 1.1788, I recommend returning to EUR / USD sales only after updating the highs around 1.1830 and 1.1866.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The 30-day moving average and the 50-day average are directed upward, indicating a continuation of the upward trend.

Bollinger Bands

The growth of the euro may be limited to the upper boundary of the bands. Considering new purchases is best after upgrading the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands around 1.1740.

analytics5ba4833066543.png

Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP / USD as of September 21, 2018

GBP / USD

The British pound, like last week, became the pioneer in the growth of counter-dollar currencies. Formally, the growth of the pound by 125 points occurred on data on the increase in retail sales in August by 0.3% against the forecast of -0.2%, as well as on some of the worst data for the US. Sales of houses in the secondary market for August did not change since July (5.34 million against the forecast of growth to 5.36 million). But other data were quite optimistic: the weekly report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits was 201 thousand (historical record) against the forecast of 210 thousand, business activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia in September increased from 11.9 to 22.9. The stock market (S & P500) grew by 0.85% and set a new historic high (2934). The historical record of Dow Jones has now become 26697. That is, there is a growing appetite for risk. Despite the lack of progress at the informal Brexit EU summit this week, the expectations of the politicians remain positive. The sides have to agree on the Irish border, and on this issue, there will be serious negotiations in October, and in November, the final summit.

Also, the good news was the information about the full readiness of the documents for the impeachment of Theresa May, prepared by the conservative party. May will retire (beautifully and without impeachment) as soon as Britain leaves the EU in March next year.

Technically, the price was the same "throw up", which we talked about yesterday. The price channel line is reached, the convergence with the oscillator Marlin is preserved (N4). However, the price move above the level of 1.3316 (Fibonacci level of 238.2%) eliminates the divergence, and the price may continue to rise.

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The Fibonacci grid can be arranged differently to the top of the third wave of traffic (August 30), which can be one branch of traffic, in which case the current stop is at the level of 161.8%. But this does not change the current focus, consolidating above the level will allow the price to rise higher. The first target is 1.3422, the level of 200%.

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Time is now working against the pound. A prolonged delay in the range of 1.3212-1.3316 will strengthen the divergence formed and move the fight back to the range of 1.3102-1.3212. Leaving the price under 1.3102, which will correspond to the consolidation under the line Kruzenshtern on H4, will allow to start to consider options with the turn of the market.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for September 21, 2018

EUR/GBP has been quite bearish with the recent price action which led the price towards 0.8850 area with a daily close. GBP has been propped up by the recent economic reports which enabled GBP to gain ground against EUR in the process.

Recently UK CPI report was published with an increase to 2.7% from the previous value of 2.5% which was expected to decrease to 2.4% and Retail Sales decreased to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.9% while performing better than expected value of -0.2%. Today UK Public Sector Net Borrowing report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 2.9% from the previous value of -2.9% and Bank of England's Quarterly Bulletin is also expected to have a hawkish impact on the current market scenario.

On the EUR side, today French Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published with a slight decrease to 53.3 from the previous figure of 53.5, French Flash Services PMI is expected to decrease marginally to 55.2 from the previous figure of 55.4, German Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 55.7 from the previous figure of 55.9, and German Flash Services PMI is expected to increase to 55.1 from the previous figure of 55.0. Moreover, the eurozone's Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 54.4 and Flash Services PMI report is also expected to be unchanged at 54.5.

Meanhwile, GBP is still quite optimistic about the upcoming economic reports while EURO is softer. If the UK provided better-than-expected data today, further gain on the GBP side is expected which may lead to definite long-term bearish pressure in the pair, while EUR is struggling amid indecisive expectations.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has rejected off the 0.8850 with a daily close yesterday after having certain corrections and volatile price action throughout the week. The price is currently residing above 0.8850 area with a daily close, the price is expected to push higher towards 0.8950 area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 0.8850

RESISTANCE: 0.8950, 0.9050

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of Gold for September 21, 2018

Dollar weakness yesterday helped Gold rise towards its August highs and major short-term resistance and upper channel boundary. Longer-term trend remains bearish. Gold price is at major short-term resistance.

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Red line - resistance

Blue line - short-term support

Green lines - bearish channel

Gold price is trading near short-term resistance at $1,210. Here we also find the upper channel boundary resistance. A break above this level will open the way for a push towards $1,220-30. Support is at $1,200 and as long as price is above this level trend will remain mildly bullish.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for EUR/USD, Sept 21, 2018

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be releasedsuch as Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German FlashServices PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and French Flash Manufacturing PMI. The US will release a few economic data too such as Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1834.

Strong Resistance:1.1827.

Original Resistance: 1.1816.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1805.

Target Inner Area: 1.1777.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1749.

Original Support: 1.1738.

Strong Support: 1.1727.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1720.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday levels for USD/JPY, Sept 21, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m, Flash Manufacturing PMI, and National Core CPI y/y. The US is due to release a few economic reports such as Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 113.11.

Resistance. 2: 112.89.

Resistance. 1: 112.67.

Support. 1: 112.39.

Support. 2: 112.17.

Support. 3: 111.95.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 21, 2018

EUR/USD has broken above resistance of 1.1730 yesterday and is now trading around 1.1770. Trend remains bullish. This break out is a bullish sign and suggests that any pull back should be bought as we should be heading towards 1.19-1.21. It is important though that price does not fall below 1.1660.

analytics5ba4916c30751.png

Black line - resistance (broken)

Red line - support

Red rectangle - pull back target and important support

EUR/USD continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Price has broken through the multiple top at 1.1730 and should continue above 1.18 today. Any pull back should not break below 1.17-1.1725. A break below this support area will increase the chances of the break out being a false one. Major support trend line is at 1.1660. Breaking below this level will cancel my bullish view.

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Trading plan for 21/09/2018

On the markets peace and maintaining positive moods dominate. Asian indices are recording a rise once again. In the currency market, the main move is the weakening of the yen and the increase in USD / JPY from 112.5 to 112.75. Among other main currencies, there is not much volatility. The EUR / USD exchange rate remains close to 1.1780.

On Friday, the 21st of September, the event calendar is busy with important economic releases. First, traders will know the GDP of France, and then PMI for industry and services from France, Germany and the entire Eurozone. The UK will publish Public Sector Net Borrowing data and Canada will post Consumer Price Index data. At the end of the day, the US will present ISM Manufacturing, Final Services PMI and Composite PMI data.

GBP/USD analysis for 21/09/2018:

Readings from the UK again surprise positively. This time, the pound is strengthening after the retail sales data were published, which instead of falling month-on-month and recovering from July, increased again. What's more, previous readings have been revised upwards. The dynamics of British retail sales decelerated to 4.0 (after a revision of 3.7% y / y) to 3.5%. Every year. A reading of 2.4 percent was expected on the yearly basis. The index excluding fuels dropped from 3.8 (after a revision from 3.8% y / y) to 3.3% with a 2.3% forecast. Moreover, the yesterday's breakdown after news that Prime Minister May intends to reject Barnier's new proposals on regulating the issues of the Northern Ireland border was erased.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair has broken above the technical resistance at the level of 1.3217 and made a new local high at the level of 1.3295, just below the technical resistance at the level of 1.3292. Currently, the level of 1.3217 will act as a support for the price. Please notice, the market is now in overbought conditions, but no sign of divergence was made yet.

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Bitcoin analysis for 21/09/2018

The Japanese National Police Agency revealed that in the first half of 2018, crypto assets worth 60.303 billion yen ($ 540 million) were stolen. The agency claims that 158 incidents of theft of cryptocurrencies were reported during the first half of this year, which is three times as high as the number of incidents reported in the same period in 2017. Throughout 2017, 149 incidents were stolen from cryptocurrencies worth approximately 626.4 million yen ($ 5.91 million), a figure nearly 100 times larger this year. The biggest single incident was the breakthrough in the industry, the crypto exchange Coincheck, which in January was stolen the equivalent of 58 billion yen (520 million dollars). According to Asahi Shimbun, the remaining 2.5 billion yen (22 million dollars) stolen in cryptocurrencies this year concerning the hacking of individual accounts, not stock exchanges. 60 percent of such cases concerned people who use the same password in their e-mails, e-commerce and online cryptographic transactions.

The report noted that the lion's share of reported incidents falls between January and March - 120 cases account for 76 percent of the entire six months - and only 38 cases were reported in April and June. Asahi Shimbun attributes this decline to "greater consumer awareness" triggered by theft at Coincheck, as well as the intensified operations of both the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) and the national police.

Police representatives said that the increase in the number of hacker attacks related to cryptography began in August 2017. Just yesterday, another financial media reported the hack of the Zaif exchange in the Japanese crypto, which had stolen $ 60 million in cryptocurrency. According to local reports, as a result of a security breach that took place on September 14, hackers managed to steal $ 40 million from hot user portfolios, as well as $ 20 million from company assets.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market bounced strongly towards the technical resistance zone between the levels of $6,521 - $6,548 and it looks like the bulls are about to take control of the market in the short-term. If the level of $6,548 is violated, then the next target is seen at the level of $6,666. The immediate support is seen at the level of $6,473.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 21, 2018

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We do think the spike down to 1.7539 was a bit deep, but no EWP rules was broken, so we will keep our focus towards the upside for a break above minor resistance at 1.7680 that confirms red wave iv has completed and red wave v towards at least 1.8030 is developing.

Only a break below important support at 1.7488 will force a re-count of the rally from 1.7117.

R3: 1.7711

R2: 1.7680

R1: 1.7650

Pivot: 1.7620

S1: 1.7586

S2: 1.7539

S3: 1.7488

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7615 with our stop placed at 1.7515. If you are not long EUR yet, then wait for a break above 1.7680 to enter a long position.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 21, 2018

analytics5ba4611218392.png

EUR/JPY has rallied nicely and followed the path we preferred. Once the rally got going again resistance at 131.99 proved to be no match at all and EUR/JPY is moving higher towards the next sub-targets on the way higher to 136.50.

The next minor sub-target is seen at 133.48 and then at 134.07.

With the clear break above resistance at 131.99 a double bottom was triggered for a pattern objective at 139.00.

R3: 134.31

R2: 133.49

R1: 133.09

Pivot: 132.61

S1: 132.37

S2: 132.08

S3: 131.70

Trading recommendation:

W are long EUR from 129.11 and we will move our stop higher to 130.85. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 132.00 and use start by using the same stop at 130.85.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Testing Resistance, Prepare For Reversal

NZD/USD is testing its resistance at 0.6719(100% Fibonacci extension, 50% & 38.2% & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where a reversal to its support at 0.6622(38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) is expected.

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) has reversed off its resistance at 96% where a corresponding drop is expected.

NZD/USD is testing its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 0.6719. Stop loss at 0.6768. Take profit at 0.6622.

analytics5ba45b769f065.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Testing Resistance, Prepare For Reversal

AUD/USD is testing its resistance at 0.7315 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where a reversal to its support at 0.7223 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) is expected.

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) has reversed off its resistance at 97% where a corresponding drop is expected.

AUD/USD is testing its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 0.7315. Stop loss at 0.7364. Take profit at 0.7223.

analytics5ba45b9b4a142.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com