Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for September 11, 2020

The pair traded downward on Thursday and broke through the support level of 1.2879 (red bold line) then tested the historical support level of 1.2769 (white dashed line). Today, the price may move upward. Economic calendar news for the dollar is expected at 12:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move upward from the level of 1.2806 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the resistance level of 1.2889 (red bold line). When this level is reached, the price may continue to move upward with the next target at the level of 1.3019 - a 76.4% pullback (blue dashed line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.2806 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the resistance level of 1.2889 (red bold line). When this level is reached, the price may continue to move upward with the next target at the level of 1.3019 - a 76.4% pullback (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is upon testing the resistance level of 1.2889 (red bold line), the price may begin to move downward with the target at the level of 1.2721 - a 61.8% pullback (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 11

Trading recommendations for EUR / USD on September 11

Analysis of transactions

Unchanged ECB policy led to a sharp rise of demand in the market, so long positions from 1.1841 made profit more than 60 points.

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Price may increase even further on the grounds of good inflation data on Germany, which is scheduled for release today. However, a poor performance will lead to a decline in the market, which could drop even lower if data on US CPI, scheduled for release in the afternoon, comes out better than expected. Such would increase demand for the US dollar, and accordingly, decrease demand for the euro.

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  • Open long positions from 1.1841 (green line on the chart), and take profit around the level of 1.1899. However, a large upward movement can only be expected if data on US inflation comes out lower than the forecasts.
  • Sell shorts from 1.1817 (red line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.1756. Such will lead to a rapid decline in the pair, most likely to the area weekly lows.

Trading recommendations for GBP / USD on September 11

Analysis of transactions

Another failed meeting for Brexit led to a sharp collapse in the British pound. So, short positions from 1.3000 brought more than 100 points of profit from the market, which compensated all the unsuccessful trades opened at the beginning of this week.

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Data on UK GDP and industrial production are scheduled for release today, however, even good performance is unlikely to help the pound to recover against the US dollar, as the risk of a complete rupture of trade relations between the EU and the UK increases every day. Betting on a decline is the best option.

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  • Open long positions from 1.2857 (green line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.2920 (thicker green line on the chart).
  • Sell shorts from 1.2807 (red line on the chart), and take profit at 1.2744.
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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 11, 2020

The pair traded upward on Thursday upon the news and tested the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line), but after the news was worked out, the technical analysis took up and the price went down. The daily candle closed almost at the opening point. Today, the market may continue to move up. Economic calendar news for the dollar is expected at 12:30 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move upward from the level of 1.1816 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line). In case of testing this level, the upward trend may continue with the next target at the level of 1.2012 located at the upper fractal (red dashed line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.1816 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line). In case of testing this level, the upward trend may continue with the next target at the level of 1.2012 located at the upper fractal (red dotted line).

Another possible scenario is a test of the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dashed line). After this, the price may move downward with the target at the level of 1.1813 - a 23.6% pullback (red dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading idea for EUR/USD

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Euro initially rallied amid the announcement of unchanged ECB policy, but then on the US trading session, price reversed and formed a bearish pin bar on the daily chart.

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To follow this short scenario and push EUR / USD further down in the market, use Elliott Wave Theory to find which levels to set up positions.

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Thus, view yesterday's impulse as wave A, and open short positions after a pullback from the current prices.

Take profit after a breakout from 1.1755, and then around price level 1.17.

This idea shall remain profitable until the quote consolidates above 1.19.

Of course, controlling the risks is also necessary in order to avoid any losses.

Best of luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US budget deficit, ECB's results of the meeting, and new round of negotiations between the UK and the EU. Overview of USD,

While the markets are experiencing a decline in activity before the key Fed meeting on September 16-17, the US Congressional Budget Office publishes new data on the state of the budget, which could have caused an existential shock until recently, but are almost unnoticed today.

The US budget deficit grew by $ 198 billion and reached 3 trillion in 11 months of the current fiscal year in August. And by the end of the year, the deficit is expected to reach $ 3.3 trillion, or 16% of GDP.

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However, what is surprising is not that the deficit will go to the highest value in history, but it is predicted to return to current levels a and even to slightly improve compared to the March forecast after 2025. But it is not clear how the US economy will show such huge growth. Foreign borrowers own just a quarter of the government's debt, which percentage declines every year, and growing pressure on China threatens to bring down the entire system of external financing for American public debt.

On the other hand, recent labor market data indicate that unemployment is expected to resume growth. The growing pace of job losses calls for new stimulus measures, and Trump promises to push another $ 300 billion in aid through Congress. There are several options for the further development of events, all of them are radical and mutually exclusive in many ways. Therefore, the Fed's position and the results of the presidential elections will be decisive.

EUR/USD

No new monetary policy measures were announced at the ECB meeting on Thursday, but the tone of the press conference was surprisingly optimistic. ECB's President, Lagarde, highlighted the apparent success of two ongoing programs - the COVID Pandemic Emergency Procurement (PEPP) program and the TLTRO long-term refinancing program. The GDP forecast for the current year has been revised upward, and inflation is also expected to rise by 2022, apparently in response to the positive impact of the recently created EU recovery fund.

The optimism comes from a simple premise: the ECB sees a supportive fiscal policy implemented at the government level, and if this is the case, there is no need for additional ECB measures.

In addition, there were no promises about taking any additional measures in the future during the press conference, and surprisingly, the high rate of the euro does not cause any concern.

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been declining on the comments of ECB members, who have expressed concern about the growing euro. Now, the euro is likely to be able to resume growth, since the ECB has not indicated any constraining factors. At the same time, optimism looks somewhat pretentious. For example, the forecast for inflation is revised upwards, while the deflationary trend is clearly visible in August.

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Despite the fact that the euro bulls may become more relieved after the ECB meeting, growth is still questionable. It is unlikely to leave the range until September 17, as the bond market reacted more than moderately to the ECB's optimism and long-term investor preferences have not changed.

GBP/USD

Here, the EU issued an ultimatum, effectively requiring the UK government to withdraw the controversial bill by the end of the month or face legal action, after the UK published a bill to rewrite parts of the January withdrawal agreement. The European Commission said the UK has "seriously eroded confidence" and risks jeopardizing trade negotiations. Moreover, Cabinet Minister Michael Gove said the UK has no intention of backing down, saying that he has "made it very clear" to his EU counterpart that the UK government "cannot and will not" change the law.

Technically, the pound declined because it has no choice. At the moment, the markets proceed from the fact that the probability of a rate cut by the Bank of England to 0.1% has increased and the pound will continue to remain under pressure until there is at least some positive news.

In addition, it is stuck at the resistance level of 1.2809. A technical pullback to the 1.3030/50 zone is possible before a new downward wave. There is a low probability of renewed growth, so the medium-term target is a decline to the support level of 1.2620/40.

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on 09/11/2020

Yesterday was incredibly interesting. In general, as expected, very few people were interested in the European Central Bank meeting. Everyone was waiting for ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech. There were as many as two. Her first appearance was during a press conference, which brought nothing new. In fact, Lagarde repeated the content of the official press release. And it's actually quite peculiar. In particular, the ECB says that interest rates will remain unchanged until inflation gets close enough to 2.0%. In addition, the asset purchase program introduced due to the coronavirus pandemic will be valid until June 2021. However, if necessary, it will be extended until the end of 2022. And not a word about the need to make changes to monetary policy. Although before that, a number of ECB representatives have repeatedly stated that the policy of negative interest rates has exhausted itself. At most, it does harm to the economy. But it is clear that no one will raise interest rates in the conditions of deflation, so Lagarde was expected to make statements about measures to combat deflation. But this did not happen. So investors were hoping to hear something concrete during Lagarde's next speech. However, as soon as investors saw the topic of her speech, the single European currency quickly fell. And nothing could stop it. Lagarde spoke on the topic of switching to digital money and giving up cash. Therefore, the ECB will not change anything, and for the most part, only reacts to what is happening. So the central bank does not control the situation and does not know what to do. These are the conclusions that can be reached following the results of the last ECB meeting. And these are not the conclusions that contribute to the euro's growth.

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What was unexpected was that we did not receive any answers during the press conference, and so investors temporarily switched to US data while waiting for Lagarde's next speech. Which, in theory, they should have ignored yesterday. And the data itself did not come out a bit as expected. Which negatively affected the dollar itself. The fact is that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits remained unchanged, although it should have decreased from 884,000 to 846,000.The number of repeated applications, which should have decreased from 13,292,000 to 12,925,000, suddenly grew to 13,385,000. Of course, it is too early to draw conclusions, but all the same, this is a hint that the pace of recovery of the labor market is significantly slowing down. So it is not surprising that the dollar weakened at this time. But, Lagarde helped recoup its losses.

Repetitive Unemployment Insurance Claims (United States):

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Several ECB representatives will speak at once, but it is unlikely that they will be able to somehow influence the mood of investors. Lagarde has already mentioned everything about the central bank's actions in the future. So the only thing you need to pay attention to is today's data on US inflation, especially since it should rise from 1.0% to 1.2%. Simply put, in Europe, there is deflation and the ECB is forced to pursue super-soft monetary policy, meanwhile, inflation is rising in the United States, which will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. So the dollar clearly looks preferable to the euro.

Inflation (United States):

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The euro/dollar pair was actively traded the previous day, as a result of which the quotes initially jumped to the 1.1910 area, and then returned, where it all started at 1.1810. In fact, the 1.1810 and 1.1910 coordinates are the structure of a flat forming on 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910.

Based on the quote's current location, you can see a sharp slowdown in activity in a range of 10-15 points, which will ultimately lead to a surge in activity.

Acceleration of volatility is recorded in relation to market dynamics, which is confirmed by a high coefficient of speculative activity.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), you can see the same side channel in the range of 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910, where the upper limit has a high deviation of 100 points.

We can assume that the 1.1830/1.1840 range will end in the next few hours, which will lead to a local surge in activity. Working on a breakout of the established limits will be a temporary strategy, because if we consider the downward development of the quote, then first it is necessary to consolidate below 1.1810.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hourly intervals have a neutral signal until the moment of consolidation breakout. The daily period, as before, signals a sell, due to the corrective move from the level of 1.2000.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 11, 2020

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GBP/JPY unexpectedly broke below 136.71 to test the broken downtrend from the 147.91 high. With this back-test fulfilled GBP/JPY should be ready to re-enter the underlying uptrend.

In the short-term, we need a break above minor resistance at 136.44 and more importantly, a break above resistance at 138.36 to confirm that red wave iv/ has completed and red wave v is in motion towards the peak at 142.76 and above.

R3: 138.36

R2: 137.09

R1: 136.44

Pivot: 136.11

S1: 135.75

S2: 135.55

S3: 135.35

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 136.65 was hit for a 80 pip loss. We will re-buy GBP at 135.55 or upon a break above 136.44 and place our stop at 135.00

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 11. EU's tough response to Boris Johnson's actions did not suit pound

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday's meeting between representatives of the EU and the UK ended in failure, which caused the British pound to fall in the afternoon. The EU said it was necessary to withdraw the bill, which violates the principles of the Brexit deal. Against this background, the bulls attempt to hold 1.2940, the test of which formed the entry point to long positions, failed. On the 5 minute chart, you can see that there was a signal to buy the pound after the bulls returned to the 1.2940 level, but this did not lead to anything good. After the bears settled under the resistance of 1.2890 in the middle of the US session, its test from the bottom up caused a sell signal to appear, which made it possible to compensate for losses from trading with a long position. At the moment, I do not recommend rushing to open long positions on the GBP/USD pair. A false breakout in the support area of 1.2777 can cause bulls to attempt building an upward correction. A more adequate solution would be to open long positions after updating the monthly low of 1.2725, subject to the same false breakout, or buying on a rebound from the 1.2675 support, based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. An equally important task for the bulls is to return and settle at the 1.2846 level, which may cause the pair to grow to the resistance area of 1.2890, which is where I recommend taking profits. There are also moving averages that play on the side of the sellers of the pound.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 1 recorded an increase in both long and short positions, but there were more buyers. Short non-commercial positions increased from 39,790 to 42,901 over the week. Long non-commercial positions increased from 45,390 to 49,213. As a result, the non-commercial net position also slightly increased and remained in positive territory, reaching 6,312 against 5,600.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers will be more active in case data on UK GDP turns out to be weak, which could lead to a breakout and consolidating below the support of 1.2777, thereby creating a signal to sell the pound. In this scenario, you can expect a sharper decline in the area of new monthly lows of 1.2725 and 1.2675, which is where I recommend taking profits. For those who are cautious about selling at lows, it is best to wait for an upward correction, which can appear in case of good fundamental data for the UK. In this case, forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2846 produces the first sell signal. However, the larger players will wait until the high of 1.2890 has been updated, so I recommend selling GBP/USD on a rebound right there. Moving averages that play on the side of the bears also pass there.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is under the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of extending the bear market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2725 area. You can sell the pound immediately on a rebound after updating the upper limit of the indicator, which is now in the 1.2960 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 11. ECB's decision not to interfere with the euro rate caused the pair

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

The sharp rise in the euro following the European Central Bank's decision to leave monetary policy unchanged, together with ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech, led to updating the large resistance level of 1.1905, above which it was not possible to gain a foothold. Three signals to enter the market appeared at once in the afternoon, let's deal with them. The 5-minute chart shows how an unsuccessful attempt to go above the 1.1905 resistance led to forming a false breakout and a signal to sell the euro. Also, in yesterday's review, I recommended opening long positions when the pair returns to the support area of 1.1863, which is what happened. However, it was not possible to extend the bullish market, and EUR/USD falling below 1.1863 formed a good signal to sell the euro, which caused the pair to drop to the support area of 1.1825, where it all ended. Now the technical picture has slightly changed. The bulls should return resistance at 1.1854 in the morning, consolidating on which forms a good entry point to long positions in the hope of returning to resistance at 1.1905, which is where I recommend taking profits. The 1.1949 level will be the long-term goal. If the euro is still under pressure in the first half of the day once weak inflation data in Germany is released, then it is best to postpone long positions until a false breakout forms in the 1.1800 area, or buy EUR/USD only immediately to rebound from the low of 1.1756, counting on a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 1 showed long non-commercial positions decreasing from 262,061 to 250,867, while short non-commercial positions increased from 50,309 to 54,130. The euro rose to new annual highs and the bulls' inability to break through the area above the 20th figure, which we clearly saw earlier this month, resulted in a sharp closure of long positions and profit taking by traders, as well as a build-up of short ones. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position slightly decreased to 196,747, against 211,752 a week earlier. However, traders will see any major decline in the euro as a good level to build up long positions in the medium term.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The bears will count on a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1855 in the first half of the day, which will be the first signal to sell the euro in order to return to the middle of the side channel of 1.1800. Weak data on German inflation can provide help, which is expected in the morning. Settling below 1.1800 will increase pressure on the pair, which will lead to a retest of the channel's lower limit at 1.1756. Consolidating below this range would open a direct road to the lows of 1.1714 and 1.1648. This scenario also forms a new downward trend. If the bulls continue to push the pair up and try to seize the initiative at the 1.1854 level, it is best not to rush to sell, but wait until the high of 1.1905 has been updated and a false breakout appears there, or sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the larger resistance of 1.1949, counting on a correction at 20-30 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates long term confrontation between buyers and sellers.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

If the pair drops, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.1800. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the 1.1890 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB reaffirms soft monetary policy

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ECB maintains its soft monetary policy, having deemed that massive monetary stimulus is still needed to support economic recovery and ensure medium-term price stability.

Latest data indicate good recovery in activity, broadly in line with previous expectations. In particular, activity in the manufacturing sector continued to improve, as well as the growth in the services sector. Domestic demand has also rebounded significantly, despite uncertain economic prospects continuing to weigh on consumer spending and business investment. Headline inflation is constrained by low energy prices and weak price pressures in the context of weak demand and significant sluggishness in the labor market.

So, the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and the PEPP program will remain ongoing as well. Purchases will continue until June 2021, and then until the Governing Council decides to end the crisis phase.

In terms of monetary analysis, money supply (M3) growth continued to increase, 9.2% in June 2020, reaching 10.2% in July. Strong money growth reflects the creation of domestic credit and the ongoing purchase of assets by the Eurosystem.

Overall, the policies, together with those taken by national governments and European institutions, will continue to support funding.

Cross-checking the results of economic and monetary analysis has confirmed that for stable inflation close to 2%, it is necessary to adjust the monetary policy of interest rates.

A well-designed structural policy can contribute to a faster, stronger and more uniform recovery from the crisis, thereby maintaining the effectiveness of monetary policy in the euro area. Targeted structural policies are especially important to revitalize economies, with a focus on increasing investment in priority areas.

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GBP/USD. The main outsider of the week is British pound

The main outsider of this week is the British pound which has collapsed by almost 500 points paired with the US currency. If the GBP/USD currency pair opened at 1.3271 on Monday, it will end at 1.2772 yesterday. Having a half thousand points in four days is a kind of anti-record for the pound. Such dynamics like these were observed in the spring of this year, at the height of the coronavirus crisis. But then, the decline in GBP/USD pair was due to the hype around the US currency, whereas now the locomotive of the southern impulse is the British.

In General, recent events have recalled the past when London and Brussels discussed the Brexit deal. In a span of three years, from 2016 to 2019, the pound reacted distinctly to seemingly reached agreements and then reacted even more to the failure of these agreements. Theresa May and Boris Johnson found some common ground with Brussels but the British Parliament rejected their proposed options. This cycle was repeated again and again until Johnson won the re-election, this is where the conservatives took an absolute majority in the house of Commons. It is worth remembering that there were different moods among members of the Conservative party at that time. One example is when Theresa May was in office, some conservative MPs tried to express a vote of no confidence in her. It is because they did not agree with the way the government conducts negotiations with Brussels.

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As of this moment, there is no such mood among conservatives, at least in the public sphere. In mid-December, the Conservative party won its most convincing parliamentary election victory in 30 years, winning 365 seats in the house of Commons. This allowed Boris Johnson to form his own majority in Parliament with a significant "margin" (365 votes with the necessary 325). At one of their first sessions, members of the house of Commons easily approved the bill on the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. There are 358 deputies who voted for the bill which includes a deal agreed with the EU on the terms of the "divorce process", while only 234 parliamentarians voted against it.

At that time, the unity of conservatives provided significant support to the pound. But today, the situation is mirrored: the factor of a monolithic majority can cause the British currency to sink.

The bone of contention between London and Brussels was the resonant bill "on the internal market of Great Britain". The law will ensure the integrity of the British internal market after the transition period as per Boris Johnson when he introduced the document to Parliament. However, according to European and some British politicians, this legislative initiative violates the norms of the international law. It negates a number of key provisions of the Brexit agreement agreed last year. Some representatives of Brussels criticized the British government, others threatened court and subsequent sanctions. Even representatives of the US Democratic party said yesterday that the bill could negatively affect the future trade agreement between London and Washington.

However, British Minister Michael Gove who oversees negotiations with Europe said yesterday that the Johnson government would not abandon the bill. According to him, this law is necessary so that England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland can freely trade with each other without regard to EU rules. It is worth remembering that the bill includes many resonant norms. For example, if it is adopted, British government Ministers will have the right to change or even cancel the rules of customs transport if the Britain and the European Union do not sign a trade agreement. In addition to that, the proposed document prescribes in a separate line the supremacy of decisions of the British government in case of contradiction with international law. The law also allows you to cancel previously accepted obligations to subsidize businesses.

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In the following emergency meeting of representatives of the British government with representatives of the European Commission, it became clear that Boris Johnson will insist on the adoption of a high-profile bill. This means that the British currency will remain under pressure until the members of the house of Commons deliver their verdict on the questions.The initiative has already been criticized by some conservatives – including former Prime Minister Theresa May. But as we all know, Johnson formed his own majority in the Lower house of Parliament with a significant margin, so the risk of adopting a scandalous bill still exists. In my opinion, this whole idea is part of the British Prime Minister's political game – one of the levers of influence on Brussels. At the same time, it must be recognized that the bill has caused too much resonance both in Britain and in the world. Therefore, in the context of the currency market, it does not matter whether we are talking about serious intentions of Johnson or this is his next part of the game. The pound will remain under significant pressure until the bill is removed from the agenda.

Thus, while the danger is still hanging over the British, only short positions are in priority for the GBP/USD currency pair. The nearest target of the downward movement is 1.2720 which is the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 11, 2020

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EUR/JPY rose to just above the resistance level at 126.02 (the high was seen at 126.46) to complete wave i and set the stage for a correction in wave ii. We expect this wave ii to correct towards 125.18 and maybe even closer to support near 124.82 and set the stage for the next impulsive rally in wave iii towards 128.60 and likely even closer to 129.23.

R3: 126.46

R2:125.94

R1: 125.66

Pivot: 125.54

S1: 125.36

S2: 125.18

S3: 124.82

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.41 and we have our stop placed at 124.35. This is the best possible time to enter a long position in EUR as a break below 124.37 tells us that our count was incorrect. So we see a well defined stop for a long EUR-position.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Natural Gas Price Movement On Sept 11, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, Natural Gas touched the 2.305 level. It is now trying to climb to the 2.406 level as its first target and the 2.477 level as its second target. This scenario is likely to occur if Natural Ga does not break through the 2.261 level and close bellow that level.

(Disclaimer)

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GBP/AUD Price Movement On Sept 11, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, the GBP/AUD pair is moving in daily downslope Pitchfork Channel and bellow the Moving Average. GBP/AUD is trading with bearish momentum. Now this pair is moving to the lower line from the Pitchfork channel and the first target will be the levels of 1.7573-1.7555. This scenario will not come true of the pair rises to 1.7919.

(Disclaimer)

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 11? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair, as we expected, almost completely recovered its original positions last night. The ones that the euro/dollar pair had before the European Central Bank meeting. Yesterday we said that, from our perspective, the euro's growth was absolutely unreasonable since the ECB did not say anything optimistic. The same goes for its chairman, Christine Lagarde. Thus, it was self-evident that the euro would fall. Moreover, the quotes reached the upper limit of the sideways channel of 1.17-1.19, which we have been mentioning for several weeks. There have been several attempts to leave this channel, but most of the time quotes still spent some time inside it. Thus, rebounding from the 1.1903 level also triggered a new round of downward movement. However, traders do not have a trend line, a trend channel, or any other technical structure that would support this or that trend. Therefore, novice traders can only assume that the downward movement will continue after rebounding from 1.19.

Novice traders are advised to pay attention to one macroeconomic report on September 11 - US inflation. In recent weeks, inflation has started to become important again, as both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have started talking about it. The central banks of the United States and the European Union are going to focus on inflation indicators when adjusting their monetary policies. Simply put, inflation is the first thing a central bank will pay attention to at its meetings. Both central banks believe inflation should be 2% or slightly higher. But this should be a stable 2%, and not isolated cases. Such inflation was very difficult to achieve even before the coronavirus crisis, and even more so now. Growth in US inflation (if it is recorded today) is good, but we do not expect a significant market reaction to this report. Forecasts say that the core indicator should rise from 1% to 1.2% y/y, while core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy) should remain at 1.6% y/y. Therefore, exceeding these forecasts will be a good thing for the dollar. We also recall that not long ago inflation data came out in the European Union, which reached -0.2% y y in August. That is, in essence, this is deflation, falling prices. No other important macroeconomic reports are scheduled for today.

Possible scenarios for September 11:

1) Novice traders are advised to not consider long deals on the pair at this time, since the price rebounded from 1.1903 yesterday, which is the upper line of the side channel. Also, there is not a single pattern that would support trading for growth at this time. Accordingly, buyers need to wait for an upward trend or set and consolidate the price above the 1.1903 level.

2) Sell positions still look more attractive now, only because traders failed to overcome 1.1903. At the same time, the situation is quite difficult now, if we talk about the possibility of opening new short positions. First, there are no patterns that would support the downward movement. Secondly, even if we assume that the price would go down after rebounding from 1.1903, it would be nice for the MACD indicator to slightly correct up (as well as the price). So far, the indicator is directed down, so it can't generate a new sell signal. Thus, those traders who started selling the pair last night can now remain in short positions with targets of 1.1771 and 1.1728. For new shorts , you need a signal from the MACD.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 11, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday's ECB meeting, as we expected, did not provide any surprises. The European Central Bank did not shock the public with a desire to control the euro exchange rate, refuse any targets, and only discussed the impact of the euro's current rate on the economy. The changes only affected the ECB's own forecast for GDP for the current year, which improved from -8.7% to -8.0%. There was no strong volatility in the market. The euro jumped by 110 points, but there was no significant reversal; the euro grew by 12 points by the end of the day.

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The MACD line has slightly increased on the four-hour chart, now the price needs to settle below the 1.1770 level in order to move towards 1.1650 and lower target levels.

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The price reached the second expected volatility level of 1.1920 on the four-hour chart, afterwards it fell and settled under the MACD line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of positive values, therefore, preparing to fall further will take about two bars, that is, by tonight. Perhaps even longer. The 1.1770 level is strong enough. If there was no such attempt yesterday, the big players are unlikely to attack it today.

So, we expect a sideways trend today, in preparation for an attack on 1.1770 next week.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 11, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound lost195 points yesterday on fears of a UK exit from the EU without a deal. We reached our June 10 high target at 1.2812. After setting the price below yesterday's low, we expect it to fall to 1.2725, 1.2645. The targets are determined at the Fibonacci levels of 100.0% and 110.0%.

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The price has converged with the Marlin oscillator on the four-hour timeframe. This is a prerequisite for correctional growth before the British pound falls to new targets. A correction is possible to the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at the price of 1.2912.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on September 11, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar decided to take advantage of the US currency's temporary weakness on Thursday amid increased volatility at the ECB meeting, but the euro's growth was soon reversed and the aussie could only pierce the resistance of the MACD line on the daily chart. The aussie lost 25 points at the end of the day. The price moved down when the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the limit of the growth area, from which it reversed to the downside.

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The price also pierced the MACD line on the four-hour chart, afterwards it tried to go under the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is in the growing trend zone, we are waiting for it to return to the negative zone around the time when the price settles below yesterday's low of 0.7249. As this happens, the scenario makes it possible for the price to fall to an August 12 low of 0.7110.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 11, 2020

USD/JPY

The correction continues in the US stock market. The S&P 500 fell 1.76% yesterday, which kept the yen from growing towards the long-planned goal of 106.55. The price slightly dropped, staying above the balance indicator line (daily chart), as it continues to go for an upward mood despite the rapid changes in external markets. The Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone, the 106.55 target is relevant, after the price breaks through the area above it, the quote will likely climb to 107.00.

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The MACD indicator line served as good support for the price on the four-hour chart. We see moderate growth in today's Asian session, while the Marlin oscillator has penetrated the growth zone.

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To some extent, the Japanese stock market helps the USD/JPY pair grow. Despite yesterday's collapse in the US market, the main Asia Pacific region indices are showing growth today.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 11. COT report. Pound lost another 200 points due to Boris Johnson's

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair, in contrast to EUR/USD, continued to sharply fall on September 10. In principle, you can clearly see that the downward trend is going to extend, and the price has managed to go far below the downward channel. Yesterday, the pair failed to settle above the resistance area of 1.3004-1.3024 within the minimum upward correction, afterwards, it rebounded and collapsed again. Therefore, a clear signal for new sell positions appeared. At the moment, the quotes have reached the final, third support level for this week at 1.2833 and may begin to correct. Although everything depends on the fundamental background from the UK, which market participants ignored for a long time, and on the mood of the bears.

GBP/USD 1H

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Both linear regression channels are directed downward on the 15-minute frame, thus, we can conclude that the downtrend will continue. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report on the British pound was more unexpected than the euro currency report. If non-commercial traders were already shorting the euro, the same category of traders continued to place longs. In total, professional traders opened 5,500 new Buy-contracts (longs) and 3,000 new Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week (August 26 - September 1), thus, their net position even increased by 2,500, according to the new COT report. In principle, such data perfectly describes what is happening in the foreign exchange market, since the pound grew during all five trading days included in the report. The pound has been depreciating from September 1 to this day, but there is no hint that professional traders have stopped buying the pound in the latest COT report. But the new COT report, which will be released today, may show a sharp decrease in the net position for the non-commercial category.

The fundamental background does not raise any questions at this time. No macroeconomic data published in either the UK or America. However, in any case, some traders consider data as irrelevant right now as they massively sell the British pound due to the actions of the British government and the complete uncertainty of the future. The last week and a half have become "black" for the pound and it can only thank British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for this, who continues to pretend to be US President Donald Trump or the ruler of earth and believes that the European Union should conclude such a trade deal as he wants. And if not, Johnson will bluff, blackmail and show his readiness to violate the principles of international law. London's actions are condemned not only by the EU, but also by the US and the countries that are part of the United Kingdom - Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. As for the uncertainty, there was plenty of it even before the events of September, and after them it is generally not clear what the British economy should expect in 2020-2021. It is entirely possible that Washington will refuse to discuss the trade deal at all, and Brussels will impose sanctions against Great Britain. Such is the price of Boris Johnson's actions, who, apart from Brexit, has nothing to boast of at the helm of a once great power.

We have two trading ideas for September 11:

1) Buyers are still out of the market, bears are now ruling the show. Thus, you are recommended to consider buying the pound when the price settles above the downward channel and aim for 1.3139 and the Senkou Span B line (1.3298). Take Profit in this case will be from 60 to 220 points.

2) Sellers continue to pull down the pair, so short positions remain relevant. However, all of this week's targets have already been overcome, so setting the quotes below the 1.2833 level will allow you to trade short without targets or at the personal discretion of traders. Take Profit in this case can be almost anything. However, for safety in this case, we recommend placing a Stop Loss order.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 11. COT report. Euro prepares to fall, as bulls pass 1.1886-1.1910

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair was almost growing all day on the hourly timeframe on September 10, and was in the resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910 by the end of the day. The price previously rebounded off this area at least four times. Actually, we have repeatedly said that the pair has been trading mainly in the sideways channel of 1.17-1.19 in the last month and a half and only occasionally makes attempts to leave it. In addition, the price likes to rebound off previous local lows and highs, of which a fairly large number has accumulated over the past month and a half. Thus, we can state the following based on Thursday's results: the pair remained inside the side channel and may pursue the lower line of this channel at 1.1700 in the coming days; quotes have left the downward channel, so we do not have a clear trend at this time, according to which you could trade.

EUR/USD 1H

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Both linear regression channels turned upward on the 15-minute timeframe, but channels may start to go down on Friday. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which, let me remind you, comes out with a three-day delay so it only covers the dates from August 26 to September 1, unexpectedly showed that the "non-commercial" category of traders decreased their net position. Non-commercial traders are the most important category of traders who enter the foreign exchange market in order to make a profit. So, non-commercial traders reduced Buy-positions (longs) and opened Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. The number of Buy-contracts decreased by almost 11,000, while the number of Sell-contracts increased by 3,000. Thus, the net position immediately decreased by 14,000. We would like to take note that the euro did not fall in price during the reporting week, which is covered by the latest COT report. The euro strengthened during all five trading days, and only started to fall on September 1, which, in fact, did not last long. The downward movement continued from September 2 to September 8, however, quotes failed to get out of the range of 1.17-1.19, after which it began to grow. However, this growth will not be included in the next COT report, which will be released today. Therefore, we can see only small changes in the new report, since the technical picture for the euro has not significantly changed.

The European Union summed up the results of the ECB meeting on September 10, which we talked about in detail in the fundamental review for the euro. Let's just say that, from our point of view, the euro's growth was completely unfounded and, given that it rebounded from the resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910, we believe that a new round of downward movement within the side channel will begin today. We highlight the US inflation report from today's macroeconomic reports. It is regaining a high degree of importance as the EU and US economies begin to recover and central banks are re-orienting themselves to inflation. If in the EU inflation collapsed to -0.2% in August, then it may remain at a very decent level of 1.0-1.2% y/y in the United States. And if we talk about core inflation, then it is 1.6% y/y. Thus, the US dollar can receive support today.

We have two trading ideas for September 11:

1) Bulls made a fairly strong jump yesterday, but failed to gain a foothold above the 1.1884-1.1910 area. Therefore, we recommend that you only consider new long positions if this area is overcome with the target on the resistance level of 1.1972. Take Profit in this case will be about 50 points.

2) Bears got a new opportunity to pull down the EUR/USD pair to the lower area of the side channel of 1.17-1.19, since the 1.1884-1.1910 area was not overcome, a rebound was also made from the Senkou Span B line. And so we recommend that you wait until you get to settle below the Kijun-sen line (1.1835) and start trading down while aiming for 1.1742. The potential Take Profit in this case is about 80 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 11. In the UK, the second "wave" of the pandemic begins.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -139.2198

The British pound, after a slight correction, resumed its downward movement within the downward trend that began a week and a half ago. The bears, who until September could not start a downward movement on the pound/dollar pair, finally cheered up and began to attack. Of course, the news from the UK helped them in this. Over the past week, all the publications have been writing about another failure of negotiations between London and Brussels, as well as about possible illegal actions of London in relation to the European Union, with which there is an agreement on the Northern Ireland border. In general, the pound is very sensitive to everything that is happening now in the UK and even "forgot" about the problems of the United States, which have not gone away. However, we have repeatedly written that traders have forgotten about the problems of Britain, so now, from our point of view, everything is logical. The British pound began to fall, which was suggested for a long time, since there were no special reasons for the growth of this currency in recent months.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Boris Johnson finally made an official statement and tried to explain what the new law is and what goals it pursues, putting it to a vote in parliament. Johnson stated: "My task is not only to preserve the integrity of the United Kingdom, but also to protect the peace on the island of Ireland and the Belfast Agreement. And to do this, we need an insurance tool — to protect our country from a radical or reckless reading of the protocol, which could lead to a border in the Irish sea and harm the interests of the Belfast Agreement." Thus, Johnson explained only what interested many political scientists and other experts from the very beginning of the "divorce" with the European Union. How will the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland be secured if the former leaves the EU with the Kingdom? Now the answer to this question has arrived: Boris Johnson and, perhaps, the entire British Parliament will simply violate previously reached agreements with Brussels and abandon some of the points of the agreement that most strictly regulate trade and customs on the border of the island of Ireland. Interestingly, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales immediately criticized this bill, saying that it violates the rule of law. It violates international law. Boris Johnson and his friends put themselves above the law. "I am extremely concerned about the British government's statements about plans to violate the EU withdrawal agreement. This would violate international law and undermine trust," Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, said in a statement. The US also criticized the bill, saying that it would be difficult for Britain and America to reach a free trade agreement if London so easily and simply violates international law and treaties with other countries (although it was in the context of the US Democratic Party, Joe Biden is a native of Belfast and honors the Belfast Agreement and peace on the island of Ireland). In general, thanks to the efforts of Boris Johnson and his followers, the UK can be severely damaged reputationally. And this is at a time when the country needs to negotiate with other countries on free trade. At a time when the country's economy has already suffered several serious blows. At a time when the country is experiencing some signs of the beginning of the second "wave" of the "coronavirus" epidemic. It is also important to note that some members of the Conservative Party also do not support such actions in London. "Britain may lose the moral superiority of a country that defends international law," said Tobias Ellwood, a Government Minister at the Ministry of Defence. "Our entire economy is built on the idea of Britain as a country that adheres to the rule of law," said Tom Tugendhat, Chairman of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee.

However, many experts believe that the opposition of the British Parliament will not go under any circumstances to approve this law. Thus, the question will be only in the conservatives themselves. Last year, Boris Johnson was actively expelled from the party and was forced to withdraw those politicians who refused to blindly obey his word. Now is the time to find out how many conservatives are ready to support a completely absurd bill that will only show that no agreements need to be signed with the UK? Some conservatives are already speaking out against this bill, so it may remain a bill. There is also an option in which everything that happens is just another bluff from Boris Johnson. During the year of his rule, we have become accustomed to the fact that Johnson is a smaller copy of Donald Trump, who tries to act without obeying the rules. Trump does not always succeed, and even more so for Johnson. Last year, we wrote about Johnson's "five significant defeats as Prime Minister". So since then, no new victory has been achieved, however, the British government's liability can also be recorded in the fight against the "coronavirus", which was lost outright. Thus, it is absolutely possible that the bill will not be adopted, and all London's actions are aimed at showing Brussels its "character". Perhaps Johnson is trying to achieve additional concessions in negotiations with Michel Barnier in such a bizarre way. It is not yet clear. It will be known for sure next week when the vote on this bill will take place.

Meanwhile, the second wave of the "coronavirus" epidemic seems to be beginning in the Foggy Albion. In recent weeks, the number of new cases has tripled, from about one thousand a day to three. This time, Johnson did not wait for the epidemic to cover the entire country and immediately imposed quarantine restrictions. It is expected that there will be a ban on gatherings of more than 6 people, and the work of public catering establishments will be prohibited from 22 hours to 5 am. There will also be new awareness-raising activities about the use of soap and masks by the population and new fines for non-compliance with certain regulations. "We must act immediately to stop the spread of the virus. Therefore, we simplify and strengthen the rules of social contacts, making them more understandable and accessible to the police," the British Prime Minister said.

Well, the pound reacts extremely painfully to all this news, which is not surprising. The only question now is, how long will the sell-off of the pound continue by market participants? It is difficult to call the movement of the last 7-8 working days anything other than a landslide.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 172 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Friday, September 11, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2676 and 1.3020. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top signals a new round of upward correction within the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2817

S2 – 1.2695

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.3062

R3 – 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its downward slide on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to continue to stay in shorts with targets of 1.2695 and 1.2573 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with the first target of 1.3184 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line, which is not expected in the near future.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 11. The ECB did not tell the markets anything optimistic.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 117.4017

On September 10, the European currency paired with the US dollar responded with rapid growth after the results of the ECB meeting became known. In the meantime, we would like to note that the pair's quotes continue to trade inside the side channel of 1.17-1.19. That is, the pair has been trading in a narrow price range for a month and a half with a slight upward bias. At the same time, the bears do not find any reason to put more pressure on the pair and update at least the previous local lows. We remind you that the price does not manage to overcome the previous lows. Thus, at this time, the pair may well make a breakthrough to the upper border of the side channel 1.19 or even higher, to the previous local maximum - 1.2011, however, this will not change the essence of what is happening.

There is nothing special to talk about the ECB meeting. The European Central Bank left the key rate unchanged at 0.0%, and deposits at -0.5%. The PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase program) also remained unchanged at 1.35 trillion euros. The ECB's final communique said that rates will remain at their ultra-low levels until inflation returns to the target level of 2% or slightly lower. Given the fact that the latest inflation report showed deflation of -0.2%, it will take a long time to wait for a rate increase in the European Union. However, these data did not upset market participants too much and a new wave of purchases of the euro currency began. The problem is that no really optimistic information was received from the ECB by traders.

What did the Eurozone central bank and Christine Lagarde really say? The ECB slightly improved the GDP forecast for 2020 (to -8%) and left unchanged the inflation forecast for 2020 – 0.3%. The head of the ECB said that monetary policy will remain ultra-soft for a long time until the economy fully recovers. Christine Lagarde, like her colleagues from the Fed, also noted the high degree of influence of the "coronavirus" on the EU economy and noted that the worse things are with the epidemic, the more difficult it will be for the economy to recover. Thus, from our point of view, nothing optimistic was said during the press conference. Even the improvement in GDP forecasts does not look like anything special. In a month, if the situation with the "coronavirus" worsens, the same forecast may be lowered again. And the recent GDP report, which showed a real improvement by several tenths of a point, was ignored by the markets. It turns out that official reports are ignored by traders, and forecasts from the ECB are fulfilled? It doesn't happen that way. We believe that the reaction of traders in the form of purchases of the European currency is absolutely illogical. Today or tomorrow, we can expect a new round of downward movement. We also remind you that the pair continues to trade in the side channel and has worked out local highs from July 31 and August 6 today. Recently, the price does not like to overcome various highs and bounces off them with pleasure.

Meanwhile, in the US, Donald Trump continues to amuse the public. Unfortunately, there is really nothing funny in his speeches, however, the way the US president quickly "changes records" really makes you smile. This time, Trump said that he knew about the severity of the disease from the very beginning, about the high mortality rate of COVID-2019. However, he did not want to create panic among people. This is the new version of Trump. However, no one knew about this virus at all until 2020, thus, how could Trump know about the high mortality rate and contagiousness of the virus? Moreover, what kind of panic are we talking about? No country in the world seems to have recorded any panic due to the "coronavirus". Thus, most likely, the US president decided to once again try to whiten himself before the election, which is why he made such a statement. In addition, Trump continues to repeat that the country is waiting for rapid economic growth if he wins the election. "If we win, we will have the greatest economy in the history of our country. You will see numbers that you have never seen," Trump said.

What can we say about the results of September 10? The overall fundamental background for the euro/dollar pair has not changed at all. In the United States, the situation is still quite difficult, however, it is slightly improving, if we talk specifically about the "coronavirus"epidemic. Mass rallies and protests related to two racist scandals related to the American police have also subsided. Thus, there are still some improvements. However, as we can see, traders and investors are not in a hurry to buy the US dollar, as there are a lot of other factors that do not contribute to this. First, the economy, which continues to be knocked out. Second, there is uncertainty about the future. No one knows for sure who will win the election. Moreover, we venture to suggest that many fear a new victory for Donald Trump because the whole world has seen the results of his first term as president. Maybe Trump is not personally to blame for absolutely all of America's troubles in 2020, however, he is also to blame for this. Thus, we believe that until the presidential elections on November 3, it will be extremely difficult for the dollar to show growth in pair with the euro. The pound is a different matter. The pound has again fallen under the issue on "Brexit. But in the Eurozone, despite almost no improvement in the economy, everything looks more stable and less dangerous. Thus, in the next two months, most likely, it is the euro currency that will remain in the lead. Only technical factors speak against it now, since the pair did not correct normally after rising by more than 12 cents.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 11 is 77 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1782 and 1.1936. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back downward signals a possible new round of downward movement in the remaining side channel.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2085

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has fixed above the moving average line and retains the chances of growth to 1.1936-1.1963. Thus, as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards, it is recommended to stay in long positions with these goals. It is recommended to consider again options for opening short positions if the pair is fixed below the moving average, with targets of 1.1782-1.1719.

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