Daily analysis of USD/JPY for March 27, 2018

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair opens today's trade with a clear rise to breach 105.54 level and settle above it. This urges caution about the upcoming trading as a further bullish rally and surpassing 106.05 will stop the overall negative scenario and lead the price to turn upwards. Now, we depend on the daily close below 105.54 to keep our overall bearish trend expectations, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50. Besides, stochastic negativity appears clearly on the four-hour time frame and we are waiting to head towards 104.60 followed by 103.20 levels as the nearest main stations. The expected trading range for today is between 104.60 support and 106.30 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for March 27, 2018

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair managed to surpass the moving average 55 recently in an effort to regain the main bullish bias. We will not be able to confirm the bullish bias until the initial resistance at 150.80 is surpassed, which forms 38.2% Fibonacci correction level. Therefore, we recommend monitoring the price behavior for today. Please note that if new positive momentum is gained and the price develops a rally above the mentioned resistance, this will allow to set more upward targets that start at 152.80, followed by reaching the previously recorded top at 156.40. The expected trading range for today is between 150.80 and 149.00

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Daily analysis of Gold for March 27, 2018

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Overview

Gold price is affected by stochastic current negativity to show some bearish bias now, but the EMA50 is still carrying the price from below. As a result, this keeps the chances valid to extend the expected bullish trend for today with targets set from 1,365.97 initially. Therefore, we will keep our bullish outlook on condition of the price stability above 1,335.40. Let me remind you that breaching the targeted level will push the price towards 1,400.00 on the near-term basis. The expected trading range for today is between 1,340.00 support and 1,370.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for March 27, 2018

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Overview

Silver price breached 16.56 level after closing the daily candlestick above it. This confirms the bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis. The upward target is set towards 17.43 as a next main station. Therefore, the bullish trend is expected in the upcoming sessions that is supported by moving above the EMA50. Please taking into account that a further expected rise depends on holding above 16.56 and 16.45 levels. The expected trading range for today is between 16.56 support and 16.90 resistance.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for March 27, 2018

EUR/JPY

A bullish signal ("buy" signal) has already been generated on this cross. Price rallied massively yesterday, rising from the demand zone at 129.50, and ramming into the supply zone at 131.50. This is a movement of over 200 pips. Further northwards movement is anticipated this week, and the supply zones at 132.00 and 132.50 would soon be reached.

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A Bullish Confirmation Pattern has been generated in the market, and that would become more and more significant as price moves higher and higher. Pullbacks along the way could be shallow because bulls are in control right now.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for March 27, 2018

USD/JPY

There is a rally in the market – in the context of a downtrend. Price jumped on Monday, but that was not significant enough to threaten the overall bearish bias on the market. A movement above the supply level at 106.50 would cause a bearish bias to be threatened, but that would require a strong buying pressure.

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In the very short-term, things have become bullish. However, the medium-term bias remains bearish, unless price continues to rally from here. By then, the outlook on the market would have turned bullish.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for March 27, 2018

USD/CHF

A bearish signal has already been generated on the USD/CHF pair. Price has moved lower and it would move lower and lower again, reaching the support levels at 0.9400 and 0.9350. The market will continue to go in the opposite direction to the EUR/USD pair. A strong volatility is in the offing.

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There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart and it would likely become clearer and clearer as price journeys downwards, reaching one support level after another. The situation in the market would remain the same until another factor causes a strong rally.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 27, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9459. The pair dropped from the level of 0.9496 to the bottom around 0.9459. But the pair couldn't rebound from the bottom of 0.9459 this morning. Therefore, the first support level is seen at 0.9459, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 0.9496, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the first support at 0.9459, the market will decline further to 0.9426 in order to test the daily support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 0.9497 with the first target at 0.9460, 0.9426, and further to 0.9385. On the other hand, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 0.9537.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 27, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7253. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.7253 to a top around 0.7300. Currently, the price is seen at the point of 0.7270.

Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7311 followed by 0.7330, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7253 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7253 and 0.7330; so we expect a range of 77 pips.

Furthermore, the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7311.

Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7270 with the first target at 0.7311 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7330. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7354 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. We should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7354) to test it.

On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.9866, a further decline to 0.7229 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Global macro overview for 27/03/2018

The Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.50% at last week's meeting, which was in line with expectations. Moreover, the markets had expected a unanimous decision to maintain rates at 0.50%, but two of the nine members voted in favor of immediately raising rates. The language of policymakers has become increasingly hawkish, and the MPC vote is another signal that there is a strong likelihood that the BoE will press the rate trigger to come in May.

The BoE FPC Minutes released today showed that the BoE policy members think a progress has been made in mitigating Brexit risks, but the problem is that firms may not have necessary permissions to provide services after Brexit. Moreover, the FPC is said to "consider possible forms for the future relationship between UK and EU in financial services". The counter-cyclical capital buffer (CCYB) for banks held at 1%, but there are arguments for a "measured increase" in CCYB, so it has been left unchanged to give banks more time to adjust.

Overall a rather neutral and cautious comments from BoE members with a positive tone regarding the perception of Brexit negotiations and progress. Not too much hawkish comments regarding the interest rates or the future possibility of the next interest rate hike.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market continues to break through resistance line, but the pair was flat in the Asian session after the top at the level of 1.4247 was established. Since then, the price is falling towards the main channel trendline support around the level of 1.4130 as it is out of the acceleration channel already. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.4077, but if the BoE FPC Minutes news will be worse than anticipated, then the price might drop to the level of 1.3981 support.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 27, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100-1.2200 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2075 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750 provided that the bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2075 remains defended by the bulls.

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Daily Outlook

In September, bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was projected towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish momentum to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2500 and 1.2200 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400 (backside of the depicted broken uptrend). This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of March 8.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2400 - 1.2200 until breakout occurs in either directions.

On the other hand, the depicted double-top reversal pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 (the depicted uptrend line) to be achieved on a daily basis. Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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Global macro overview for 27/03/2018

Yesterday the global markets did not receive any shocking new revelation from the White House, but there were signals from China and the US about the willingness to negotiate, so the main discussion in the markets over the last 24 hours began to revolve around the topic, whether the markets not overreacted a little? This seems to be an important question but, the risk of a total commercial trade war is low and its valuable impact on the international trade in goods and services will be small. But the risk remains in the short term whether the topic will not become the main generator of emotions again and will intensify the reception of weaker data readings and economic activity. This week we have the end of the month/quarter and the Easter break, so the temptation to cut the position is high among the global investors. This reaction works against USD in relation to NOK, EUR and NZD, but USD/JPY is higher along with the rebound in the stock markets. It still might not be the end of the unrest related to the risk of a trade war, although (as seen yesterday), this is not an issue that will keep the markets in check.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H1 time frame. The market has managed to break out of the potential triangle pattern, made a new local low at the level of 104.65 and retraced about 50% of the last leg down. the nearest target for the bulls is seen at the level of 61% at 105.90 , but the market is trading in overbought conditions already. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 105.25.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for March 27, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High were expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

Bearish breakdown of 0.7300 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

Otherwise, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7200 and 0.7350.

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Bitcoin analysis for 27/03/2018

The new series of paintings by Andy Bauch called "New Money" combines art and crypto technology by hiding abstract codes in his Lego graphics. The paintings show private keys to wallets containing up to $ 9,000 in cryptocurrencies. Buying a given work does not mean that you become the owner of a private key because anyone who decrypts the code will be able to take money for themselves. Bauch, however, said that the buyer of each image will give a hint.

The exhibition, which took place at Castelli Art Space in Los Angeles on March 23-25, also included live transmission of changes in the value of tokens in each private key. The content of each portfolio remains unchanged for now, which means that no one broke any of the codes, or simply did not transfer the money. Images can be purchased at prices ranging from $ 1,500 to $ 4,800, but the price does not reflect the value of tokens in a given wallet.

For this particular artistic project, Bauch in 2016 began to buy various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Litecoin. He then used their private keys to generate an abstract pattern using an algorithm that allowed for their own aesthetic changes as long as they did not affect the validity of the secret code. The artist claims that through his work he tries to fill the gap that often exists between new technology and humanity.

"Blockchain, cryptocurrency technology, can help artists obtain ownership of their projects" - said Daniel Zhai, general manager of the INK platform. Zhai spoke in December last year about the possibilities of his platform based on Blockchain technology, which can help artists tokenize their projects, as well as offer space for crowdfunding in digital currencies.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market dropped below the 61% Fibo support and made a new low at the level of $7,500 as the wave C of the corrective wave 2 is extending. The invalidation level for the current impulsive upward scenario is at the level of $7,269. Any violation of this level would open the road towards the next important technical support at the level of $5,829.

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Analysis of Gold for March 27, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,356.38. According to the 4H time – frame, I found a strong rejection of supply trendline (resistance) in the background, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found an overbought condition on the RSI oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,343.00 and at the price of $1,337.55.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,358.44

R2: $1,363.40

R3: $1,370.87

Support levels:

S1: $1,346.00

S2: $1,338.55

S3: $1,333.60

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Trading plan for 27/03/2018

The anxiety surrounding the topic of the trade war weakened somewhat, which allowed the improvement of risk appetite and the rebound of stock exchange indices. On the currency market USD is in retreat, but also JPY lost more on the cross with AUD and NZD. The night went out without any data or comments, so the volatility is low.

On Tuesday 27th of March, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants will keep an eye on CB Consumer Confidence data from the US and Richmond Manufacturing Index.

EUR/USD analysis for 27/03/2018:

Concerns about the escalations of the trade war have weakened, also with the help of signals from China and the US, that the parties are open to reaching a settlement. The Trump administration has asked Beijing to reduce the duties on cars, to allow for the increase of foreign shares in financial companies and the import of semiconductors manufactured in the USA. This is aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with China and avoiding the imposition of duties by the USA.

Confidence in the euro area economy in March weakened stronger than expected, according to the data published a moment ago. The index of confidence in the economy prepared by the EC fell to 112.6 with the forecast of 113.3 and 114.2 in February. Looking at the details, confidence in the industry has receded the most, while consumer and service indicators remained virtually unchanged.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the data were published. The data have no major impact on the market as the EUR/USD has dropped before the release after making the local top at the level of 1.2477. Currently, the price is trading below the technical resistance at the level of 1.2446 in overbought market conditions. The momentum indicator is still above its fifty level, but it starts to point down as well. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2388.

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GBP/USD analysis for March 27, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.4145. According to the 4H time frame, I found the fake breakout of weekly high at the price of 1.4218, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator and the rejection of upper diagonal of the upward channel, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.4090 and at the price of 1.4000.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4275

R2: 1.4317

R3: 1.4390

Support levels:

S1: 1.4160

S2: 1.4087

S3: 1.4045

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for March 27, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $7.671. Vilnius-based Coingate, cryptocurrency payment gateway for European merchants, is teaming with Paris-based Prestashop, an open source ecommerce solution. The combination means more choices for cryptocurrency enthusiasts and might encourage an increase in adoption. Technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found that the price is trading in well-defined downward channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a overbought condittion on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $7.682 and at the price of $7.450.

Support/Resistance

$8.000 – Intraday resistance

$7.682– Intraday support

$7.682 – Objective target 1

$7.450 – Objective target 2

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for March 27, 2018

The Dollar index as expected has made a new lower low below 89. Trend remains bearish. The Dollar index remains under pressure and could see below 88 over the coming weeks. As long as price is below 90.30 trend will remain bearish.

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Red lines - trading range

The Dollar index has broken below and out of the recent trading range it was in. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and as we said in our last analysis, trend is bearish and we expect new lows as long as price stays below the Kumo (cloud). Support is now at 88.25 and resistance at 89.30.

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On a Daily basis the Dollar index remains in a bearish trend. Price got rejected by the Daily Kumo and closed below the kijun-sen as we warned yesterday. Price made new lower lows and I expect the February lows to be broken as long as price is below the Ichimoku cloud.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for March 27, 2018

Gold price is trading above $1,350 but still below January highs. Trend is bullish in the short-term as long as the price is above $1,350. I believe Gold has more chances of a pull back for a higher low than a continuation of the upward trend. Only aggressive traders should try a short position.

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Blue lines - trading range

Gold price is above both the tankan- and kijun-sen indicators. Support is at $1,350 and next at $1,334. I expect a pull back from current levels and the creation of a higher low in the area of $1,310-$1,325. Resistance is at $1,357-65.

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Magenta line - long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

Gold price is testing the long-term resistance trend line at $1,355-65 area once again. Trend is bullish as the price is above both the tankan- and the kijun-sen indicators. Weekly support is at $1,331 and next at $1,300. So far, the price has respected all support levels but has not broken above the critical long-term resistance. I expect this resistance to eventually break and we will see the Gold price above $1,400.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 27, 2018

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EUR/NZD - Weekly

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EUR/NZD - 4 Hourly

Long-term we continue to look for more upside pressure towards 1.8437 and ideally closer to 1.9844 (Diamond and 50% corrective target).

Zooming in on the shorter time-frame, we need a clear break above resistance at 1.7100 to get the next "GO" for a rally towards 1.7536 and 1.7744 as the next larger targets on the way higher towards 1.8437.

R3: 1.7479

R2: 1.7249

R1: 1.7100

Pivot: 1.6986

S1: 1.6918

S2: 1.6827

S3: 1.6800

Trade recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.7000 or upon a break above 1.7100

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, March 27, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, and German Import Prices m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, and CB Consumer Confidence, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2516.

Strong Resistance:1.2509.

Original Resistance: 1.2497.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2485.

Target Inner Area: 1.2456.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2427.

Original Support: 1.2415.

Strong Support: 1.2403.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2396.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 27, 2018

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USD/JPY - Weekly

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USD/JPY - 4 Hourly

Long-term we continue to look for the wave (E), of a huge triangle, to continue lower to an ideal target near 123.43.

Zooming in on the shorter time-frame, we saw wave (D) complete with the test of 137.50 and since that top, we have seen wave A to a low of 129.53 and wave B is still unfolding as some kind of flat. Wave B could complete near 132.43 but it's possible that wave C/ of B will extend closer to 132.82 before completing and setting the stage for the next impulsive decline in wave C towards the ideal target near 123.43.

R3: 132.82

R2: 132.42

R1: 131.98

Pivot: 131.72

S1: 131.17

S2: 130.53

S3: 130.24

Trade recommendation:

We will be looking for a selling opportunity in the 132.43 - 132.82 area

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, March 27, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y and SPPI y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Richmond Manufacturing Index, CB Consumer Confidence, and CB Consumer Confidence. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 106.20.

Resistance. 2: 105.99.

Resistance. 1: 105.79.

Support. 1: 105.53.

Support. 2: 105.33.

Support. 3: 105.12.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for March 27, 2018

The index remains under pressure below the 200 SMA at the H1 chart and the support zone of 89.36 is now being pierced, allowing for more losses in the short-term. There are fractals in formation which supports the bearish scenario for the coming days. USDX could be looking to test the 87.88 level and the MACD indicator is favoring to that scenario, as it stays in the negative territory.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.63 / 91.75

H1 chart's support levels: 89.36 / 87.88

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 89.36, take profit is at 87.88 and stop loss is at 90.81.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 27, 2018

The pair stays strong in the short-term as the price action is consolidating above the support zone of 1.4136. Currently, GBP/USD is facing off the resistance level of 1.4225, which is the last hurdle ahead of the 1.4269 level and if it manages to break above such area, the bulls could strengthen in the short-term. MACD indicator remains in the positive territory, favoring to the bulls.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4225 / 1.4269

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4136 / 1.4061

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4225, take profit is at 1.4269 and stop loss is at 1.4185.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com