Global macro overview for 01/03/2018

The events of the last weeks confirm the Fed's president Jerome Powell in the belief that the US economy will deliver a high level of performance. During the speech in front of Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve presented an optimistic vision of the current and future condition of the economy and confirmed his belief in further interest rate increases in the US. He expects the economy to maintain high demand, including export, rebound of investments and maintaining positive moods among US companies. The fiscal policy will have a stimulating effect on economic growth in the coming quarters. He expects inflation to return to the 2.0% target and stay it in this area in the medium term. In his opinion, wages will also increase faster in the future. Under these conditions, it is reasonable, in the words of J. Powell, to maintain the current line of gradual removal of monetary policy accommodation (making interest rate increases), which will support the statutory goals of the bank.

The statement of the Fed's Chairperson can be considered moderately hawkish. He included in it a sentence that part of the factors in the recent years influencing economic activity in the US in a negative way (headwinds) began to push the economy forward (tailwinds). In this context, he mentioned the fiscal policy (tax cuts) and external demand. Financial conditions in the markets also facilitate running a business. The market has increased expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. The base scenario of three moves upwards by 25 points each started to be almost fully discounted, while one more market currently estimates at approx. 30%. Some economists are wondering whether, on the occasion of the next meeting, the Federal Reserve will not decide to raise the rate projection to just four hikes by the end of the year. This would be a good news for the US Dollar and bad for stocks, Gold and commodities.

The second part of J.Powell testimony in front of Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives starts today at 03:00 pm GMT.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 90.59 and currently is trying to rally higher towards the next resistance at the level of 90.98. Strong momentum and favorable market conditions are supporting this outlook.

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Global macro overview for 01/03/2018

The British Pound might get into the more bearish pressure that can clearly evolve in the coming weeks. At the beginning of the year, the markets were more optimistic about the prospects for the next phase of Brexit negotiations, which will officially take place in March 2019. Better macro data allowed to shift attention towards speculation about interest rate hikes by the Bank of England. The markets are pricing such a possibility on 60% in May 2018. Now it turns out that the main problem may be that somehow managed to alleviate in December: the case of Northern Ireland. The initial proposals released by Brussels yesterday, assume that the economic boundary between Great Britain and the EU will be delimited by the Irish Sea, not Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is to remain within the customs union. This caused strong opposition from London, which accused the EU almost an attempt to annex Northern Ireland. This should not come as a surprise because Prime Minister May's government exists only thanks to the conditional support of the North Irish Unionist party (DUP), whose Brussels proposals weakening ties with London are not on the way.

Today, European Union President Donald Tusk warned the UK that it can't expect frictionless trade outside the Eurozone single market, lowering again Prime Minister Theresa May's expectations a day before she's due to deliver a major speech on her vision for the post-Brexit relationship. Tusk's intervention is another sign the EU won't compromise its main principles and the UK has only one month left to prepare for the crucial EU summit and reach agreement on a transition period, borders and start discussing future trade agreements.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the daily time frame. The market is locked between two main support and resistance zones: 0.8688 - 0.8759 (support) and 0.8991 - 0.9048 (resistance). Only a clear and sustained violation of one of this levels might provide more clues to where the market is heading next: whether it is gonna test the swing high at the level of 0.9305 again or decline towards the level of 0.8384.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 01, 2018

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Overview:

  • Pivot point: 0.7231.
  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.7336. This week, the pair fell from the level of 0.7336 to the bottom around 0.7230. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7256 followed by 0.7336, while daily support 1 is found at 0.7200.
  • Also, the level of 0.7200 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.7256 towards the first support level at 0.7200 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.7200, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.7200.
  • Then, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level 0.7145 in order to test the daily support1.
  • On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.7340, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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Euro lost driver growth

Eurozone

The eurozone economy is clearly tired of continuous growth over the past 12 months, updating time after time before the crisis highs. Following the ZEW and Ifo indices, which showed a slowdown in growth, HIS Markit confirmed the trend. It is impossible to maintain record growth for such a long time.

The production PMI shrank to 58.6p from 59.6p in January, remaining, nevertheless, near the historical highs.

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It should also be noted and a slight decrease in the Gfk index for Germany from 11.0 to 10.8p, all these data enabled the bears to seize the initiative.

Eurostat's preliminary report on consumer inflation in February did not add enthusiasm either. Instead of the expected growth of the base index to 1.1%, the January level was 1.0%, which, among other things, indicates a threat of a return of deflationary pressure. In any case, the members of the Board of Governors have recently mentioned this more than once.

The euro continues to be under pressure, as against the background of the decline in indicators. The pressure on the ECB also decreases. It has no reasons to raise the rate in the foreseeable future. The currency pair EUR / USD is already close to the nearest support of 1.2165, in case it does not stand, the decline will continue up to 1.2092, where the level is quite strong.

United Kingdom

The pound received a few striking blows, falling to 1.3740 before the opening of the European session.

Nationwide housing price indices fell by 0.3% in February, annual growth was only 2.2%, both indicators are worse than forecasts. The slowdown in housing prices reflects a general slowdown in prices and a decrease in construction activity due to the threat of a rise in the price of loans.

The index of retail prices from BRC decreased by 0.8%, which also turned out to be worse than forecast. The rate of inflation in the UK is high, but the consumer activity is weak. The rise in prices is due to the rise in the price of imports. The consumer confidence index is still confidently in the negative zone.

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Yesterday, the main negotiator from the European Union, Michel Barnier, said that reaching an agreement on the transition period is by no means guaranteed, and Teresa May also noted that the draft agreement proposed by the EU "undermines the constitutional foundations of the country." Thus, the main driver of the pound's growth in recent months has unexpectedly changed the sign, after the expectations of the successful conclusion of the negotiations, unexpected expectations began to dominate.

Today, the Bank of England will publish data on mortgage and consumer lending in January, depending on whether expectations are met, the pound may either accelerate the fall, or try to stabilize at current levels.

On Friday, the markets will listen carefully to Carney's and May's performances, which will almost certainly add volatility. The pound as a whole is under pressure, closing below the level of 1.3763 will open the way to the support of 1.3612, but if the quotes stay above this level, then trade can go to the lateral range with the upper limit of 1.3855.

Oil and ruble

Quotes of oil could not stand aside after a wave of sales in stock markets, as the drop in stock indices is always accompanied by a decrease in business activity. At the same time, it is still far from the low of the first half of February, oil is moving objectively towards finding a balance, despite all the upheavals, as the OPEC countries + are persistently fulfilling their obligations to cut production.

Global oil reserves are declining, which is a plus for quotations, and at the moment the main issue is the sustainability of economic growth. If the US authorities provoke a further drop in the markets, Brent will decrease to support 63.50, after which it may go to test 61.50.

The ruble tested strong support at 55.50, and, frightened of its own courage, rolled higher. There are no reasons to expect a strong weakening of the ruble, external factors are favorable, including an increase in the sovereign rating, demand for OFZs and economic growth.

If the panic wave subsides, then the movement of the ruble below 55.50 is practically guaranteed, in this case it will look for support closer to 54.10. A little more likely at the current stage of trading in the range with the upper limit of 57.60.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 01, 2018

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair will continue rising from the level of 0.9342 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.9438 which represents the daily pivot point on the H4 chart. Accordingly, the USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9438. So, buy above the level of 0.9438 with the first target at 0.9516 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 0.9594 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.9516, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 0.9704. The price is likely to form a double botttop m in the same time frame On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9342, a further decline to 0.9187 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.
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Bitcoin analysis for March 01, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways around the price of $10.656. While private businesses all over the world struggle with employees so much as possessing cryptocurrency, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has reportedly given the full go-ahead to its employees trading crypto. The technical picture looks neutral to bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found that price successful rejected of the lower diagonal of the upward channel, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the prrice of $10.930 and at the price of $11.040.

Support/Resistance

$10.650 – Intraday resistance

$10.250– Intraday support

$10.930 – Objective target 1

$11.040 – Objective target 2

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for March 1, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390. Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern was expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390).

As expected, the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) stood as a significant supply zone for the NZD/USD pair. This allowed the current bearish decline to occur towards the price zone of 0.7230 - 0.7165 (neckline of the reversal pattern).

A bearish breakdown of 0.7300 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 1, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100-1.2200 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2075 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750 provided that the bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2075 remains defended by the bulls.

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Daily Outlook

In September, a bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was projected towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish momentum to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750. However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to fixate above 1.2470.

That's why, a recent bearish pullback is being expressed below the price level of 1.2450 thus expressing a double-top reversal pattern with projected target around 1.1990.

The current bearish pullback will probably extend towards 1.2070-1.1990 (reversal pattern projection targets) if the current bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 (the depicted uptrend line) is achieved on a daily basis.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for March 1, 2018

EUR/JPY

Price has shed over 130 pips this week, after reaching an initial weekly high of 132.15, thus upholding the current Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. The demand zones at 130.00 and 129.50 are being tested. The more price journeys southwards, the more the probability of a strong reversal in the market, which may overturn the current bearish bias.

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Some fundamental figures are expected today and they may have impact on the market. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. There are supply zones at 130.50, 131.00m and 131.50, which would be breached to be upside, in case there is a strong bullish reversal in the market.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for March 1, 2018

USD/JPY

The pair is clearly neutral in the short-term. There are demand levels at 106.50, 106.00, and 105.50, which would impede bearish movements and they would eventually help bring about a bullish reversal. A breakout is expected to happen any time and that could favor bulls, as the price tries to move upwards.

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When a breakout happens, it may be in favor of bulls, as the price goes towards the supply levels at 107.00, 107.50, and 108.00. This is what can bring about a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. A breakout to the downside will render this expectation invalid.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for March 1, 2018

USD/CHF

Price has started moving upwards in a predictable manner, and it is now above the support levels at 0.9400 and 0.9450, targeting the resistance levels at 0.9500 and 0.9550 (which are the initial targets). Further upwards movement is expected – happening irrespective of occasional pullbacks in the market.

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The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the overbought region. This means, the outlook on the market remains bullish, although the price is not expected to go upwards in a straight line. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart.

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EUR/USD analysis for March 01, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.2179. According to the 1H time frame, I found that price is trading inside of the downward channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a series of lower lows and lower highs, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2163 and at the price of 1.2050.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2228

R2: 1.2262

R3: 1.2282

Support levels:

S1: 1.2175

S2: 1.2154

S3: 1.2120

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Panic returns to markets again

The first appearance of the new head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, in the US Congress turned out to be more hawkish than the markets expected and led to sell-offs in the stock markets. Powell on duty outlined the situation of the US economy, recognizing the changes as positive, and confirmed his intention to follow the policy of "gradual raising rates."

Everything would be fine, but then, in answering questions from congressmen, Powell unexpectedly hinted at the opportunity to improve his personal forecast. The markets saw in his words a readiness to consider an additional rate increase this year.

Thus, Powell's speech made an expected impression on the markets, but the threat of a fourth rate hike is growing again. According to the CME futures market data, the markets are convinced of two increases in a row in March and June, in September the probability is more than 50%, and in December - more than 30%. As practice shows, after the rate increase on March 21, all other figures will also rise, that is, the probability of a fourth increase will increase.

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Markets expectedly reacted with the fall, which was the strongest after the collapse in early February. It is difficult to expect otherwise because exactly the same fears returned that provoked the previous collapse.

Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said in an interview with Bloomberg that he expects the recession to come in the coming years, and in his opinion, it may become more long and painful than in 2008. Summers identified budget deficits at all levels as markers, from municipal to federal, which will only increase as the tax reform is implemented. The greatest danger Summers sees is that when a new crisis begins, the authorities will not have the opportunity to mitigate it, because the possible tools have already been exhausted.

Thus, the stock market is again under threat, the fall of which can drag along and many related indicators. In the coming days, the market will assess the threat level, and if it considers it to be quite strong, one should expect another collapse in the stock markets and a sharp wave of demand for protective assets.

The markets are currently disoriented. Powell said that the economy is recovering, and the published macroeconomic data seems to be talking about it, in particular, the GDP growth in the fourth quarter was 2.5% according to the updated data, but President Trump, again and again, raises the question of the need to review customs tariffs and "return fair exchange". In the US relationship with major trading partners. If you look at the US trade balance without taking into account oil and petroleum products, whose import has significantly decreased in recent years, you can see that there is a sharp increase in the deficit along the whole spectrum of trade. In other words, America has nothing to offer the world in exchange for imports, except weapons and dollars. How to correct the emerging situation is completely unclear.

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Today, a report on personal consumption spending will be published in January, after the publication of quarterly data on price changes on Wednesday, attention to this indicator will be increased. To bring down the growing wave of panic, it is necessary to see the growth of personal consumption, while forecasts are not stable. Experts expect the growth of expenses and at the same time lower incomes.

A little later, there will be data on the production PMI from Markit and ISM, and of course attention will be focused on Powell's next speech, and right after it the Fed's position will be commented on by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Dudley, who is considered the most influential member of the Cabinet after Powell.

If the market sees a new threat, it is likely another decline in stock markets, the growth of the dollar against commodity assets and the demand for protective ones, in particular, on the yen and franc. Under pressure are the Australian and Canadian dollar, they look weaker than all.

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Analysis of Gold for March 01, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,310.57 and met my first objective target. According to the 30M time frame, I found that price has broken the bearish flag pattern and support at the price of $1,313.50, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the priceo f $1,295.30.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,321.87

R2: $1,325.67

R3: $1,328.80

Support levels:

S1: $1,314.95

S2: $1,311.83

S3: $1,308.05

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for 01/03/2018

Yang Chin-long, the new governor of the Taiwanese Central Bank, said yesterday in a speech that the bank will be open to exploration of Blockchain technology. At the end of January, Taiwan's capital announced that it intends to transform into a "smart city", using Blockchain to provide citizens with technological solutions, such as pollution sensors and tracking health history through cooperation with IOTA. During his presentation during the presidency ceremony, Yang Chin-long said that the Central Bank would be open to adopting artificial intelligence technology and large data analysis to better anticipate and analyze global economic conditions: "In addition, the bank will also try to explore the possibility of increasing the security and efficiency of payment systems using decentralized Blockchain technology".

In October 2017, the Taiwanese Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) publicly announced its support for ICO, cryptocurrency, and Blockchain in the country, in order to defy strict cryptocurrency regulations and prohibitions introduced earlier in China and South Korea.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The first market attempt to break out above the golden trend line has failed, but the pull-back was fairly shallow with a temporary low at the level of $10,000. The key technical support for the price is still seen between the levels of $9,170 - $9,434. As long as this zone holds, the market will keep trying to break through the resistnace at rally towards the level of $12,030.

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Trading plan for 01/03/2018

In the first hours of March, the USD sustains growth amid weak sentiment in the equity market. AUD reacted negatively to domestic data. PMI from China surprised positively. On the commodity market, the strength of USD keeps prices in check. WTI crude cannot recover after yesterday's $2 slump in the direction of 61.30. Similarly, Gold at USD 1,313 is hovering against three-week minimums.

On Thursday the 1st of March, the event calendar is again quite busy with important data releases, so market participants should keep an eye on Switzerland Gross Domestic Product and Retail Sales data, PMI Manufacturing data from Spain Italy and the UK, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canadian RBC Manufacturing PMI (s.a.) data.Personal Spending, Personal Spending, Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI data from the US. Moreover, at the beginning of the trading session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech again.

AUD/USD analysis for 01/03/2018:

AUD is the weakest currency on Thursday under the pressure of domestic data. The Private Capital Expenditures in Australia in the fourth quarter decreased by 0.2% versus the forecast increase of 1.0%. The first estimate of investment plans for the financial year 2018/19 amounted to AUD 84 billion with a forecast of AUD 86 billion. The data release is important for traders, as it is a top indicator of Australia's economic health. Additionally, a change in the investment levels for businesses is usually a sign for future economic movement, including earning, spending and hiring.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has been trying to bounce from the key technical support zone between the levels of 0.7729 - 0.7758 but after worse than expected news, it marginally broke through the support and made a new low at the level of 0.7715. The momentum is still pointing to the downside and the market is close to entering the oversold conditions. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7693 and the level of 0.7758 will now act as a nearest technical resistance for the price.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for March 1, 2018

The Dollar index has broken through the previous high at 90.60. Short-term trend remains bullish. Next important resistance is found at 90.85 where we find the 38% Fibonacci retracement.

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Red line - resistance (broken)

Black line - resistance (broken)

The Dollar index is breaking above the short-term resistance levels and continues to trade above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Support is at 90.10 and at 89.80. Bulls do not want to see these two levels broken. Above the 38% Fibonacci retracement resistance, we have the 91.75 and 92.45 levels as very important resistance levels.

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Blue line - resistance (broken).

Daily trend remains bearish as price remains below the Kumo. Price is now challenging cloud resistance in the Daily chart. Daily support is at 90.50-90.25 and at 89.80. Bulls need to be careful as we might see a rejection at the Daily cloud resistance.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for March 1, 2018

Gold price has made a new lower low. Price remains in a bearish short-term trend after the cloud rejection. Daily trend has turned to neutral after price entering the Daily Kumo.

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Gold price is below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Short-term support is at $1,307 at the February lows. Resistance is at $1,335 at the lower cloud boundary. Gold is expected to continue lower, however today I would not be surprised to see a bounce towards $1,325-30.

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Magenta line - long-term resistance

After the double top rejection at the long-term resistance and the rejection at the daily tenkan-sen early this week, Gold price has broken through the Kumo and is trading inside it. Daily trend has now turned to neutral. Support is at $1,300. If this level fails to hold we should expect Gold to move towards $1,285-70.

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BITCOIN Analysis for February 28, 2018

Bitcoin has managed to reach above $11,000 price area today but unfortunately could not sustain its gains for long enough. The Bitcoin market is still quite lucrative for some of the market players who does see good potential in the market and expect it to push higher towards $15,500 price area in the coming months. As of the today's strong bearish pressure leading to bullish rejection in the daily candle is currently taken as a retracement sign towards $10,000 before price bounces up higher with a vision of breaking above $12,000 and reaching towards $15,500 price area. As for the current scenario, certain bearish pressure is expected in the Bitcoin but as the price remains above $10,000 price area, the bullish bias is expected to continue with a potential target towards $15,500 price area.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for February 28, 2018

EUR/AUD has been volatile and corrective below 1.5750 price area for a few days. Now the pair is expected to proceed lower in the coming days. AUD has been quite dominant today despite downbeat economic reports whereas EUR is struggling to sustain its gains. Ahead of Australia's high impact economic report, Private Capital Expenditure report to be published with unchanged value of 1.0%, today Australia's Private Sector Credit report was published with an unchanged value of 0.3% which was expected to increase to 0.4%. The worse economic report provided a positive push to EUR for a while but it did not sustain well enough after mixed economic reports from the eurozone. Today German Gfk Consumer Climate report was published as expected at 10.8, decreasing from the previous figure of 11.0, French Consumer Spending decreased to -1.9% from the previous value of -1.2% which was expected to increase to 0.5%, French Prelim CPI was unchanged at -0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.3%, French Prelim GDP was published unchanged as expected at 0.6%, and German Unemployment Change report was published better than expected. Moreover, the eurozone's CPI Flash Estimate was published as expected at 1.2% decreasing from the previous value of 1.3% and Core CPI Flash Estimate report was published unchanged at 1.0%. As for the current scenario, AUD is expected to take the lead whereas upcoming Australia's economic reports are expected to be quite optimistic as forecasted. Otherwise, EUR may struggle further to sustain its gains further. Until the eurozone comes up with strong high impact economic reports in the coming days, AUD is expected to continue its dominating pressure.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price currently residing at the edge of dynamic level of 20 EMA support from where the price is expected to proceed lower towards 1.55 support area. Today the bearish pressure was quite impulsive which engulfed previous bullish price action quite easily and expected to proceed much lower as well. As the price remains below 1.5750 price area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for February 28, 2018

The corrective mode of EUR/GBP seems to be never ending as the corrective bearish squeeze is turning more volatile every day. Ahead of the high impact economic reports from the UK, EUR has gained impulsive momentum which might be a signal of further gains in the coming days. Today, German Gfk Consumer Climate report was published as expected at 10.8 decreasing from the previous figure of 11.0, French Consumer Spending decreased to -1.9% from the previous value of -1.2% which was expected to increase to 0.5%, French Prelim CPI was unchanged at -0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.3%, French Prelim GDP was published unchanged as expected at 0.6% and German Unemployment Change report was published better than expected. Moreover, the eurozone CPI Flash Estimate was published as expected at 1.2% decreasing from the previous value of 1.3% and Core CPI Flash Estimate report was published unchanged at 1.0%. Though the economic reports revealed mixed readings, EUR managed to sustain its grounds under impulsive GBP pressure in the pair. On the GBP side, today Gfk Consumer Confidence report was published with a further deficit as expected at -10 decreasing from the previous deficit of -9 and BRC Shop Price Index was also published with a greater deficit of -0.8% decreasing from the previous value of -0.5%. Moreover, tomorrow UK Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight decrease to 55.1 from the previous figure of 55.3 and Net Lending to Individuals is expected to increase to 5.4B from the previous figure of 5.2B. To sum up, ahead of the high impact UK report to be published tomorrow, certain gain on the EUR side has been quite remarkable. The market currently became quite indecisive with the today's impulsive bullish momentum whereas the market sentiment has been bearish for a few days now. As for the current scenario, further correction is expected in this pair until EUR sustains its gains to proceed higher, aiming to break above this range-bound price area. Otherwise, the UK might come up with better economic reports to dominate EUR further and break below the range area.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains which followed the previous bearish price action leading the price lower below the trend line resistance. The price is currently residing at the edge of 0.8850 price area from where a daily close above the area is expected to lead to further bullish pressure in the pair with a target towards 0.90. On the other hand, if the price manages to reside below 0.8850 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue in this pair.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of EUR/JPY for February 28, 2018

EURJPY has been quite impulsive with the bearish pressure today which is expected to create lower highs in the coming days. Despite having worse economic reports today, JPY gained impulsively which was quite impressive but expected. Today Japan's Prelim Industrial Production report was published with negative value of -6.6% decreasing from the previous positive value of 2.9% which was expected to be at -4.4%. Furthermore, the Retail Sales decreased to 1.6% from the previous value of 3.6% which was expected to be at 2.3% and Housing Starts report was also published with a significant decrease to -13.2% from the previous value of -2.1% which was expected to be at -4.5%. On the other hand, today the German Gfk Consumer Climate report was published as expected at 10.8 decreasing from the previous figure of 11.0. Besides, the French Consumer Spending decreased to -1.9% from the previous value of -1.2% which was expected to increase to 0.5%. Additionally, the French Prelim CPI was unchanged at -0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.3%, while the French Prelim GDP was published unchanged as expected at 0.6%. At the same time, the German Unemployment Change report was published better than expected. Moreover, EUR CPI Flash Estimate was published as expected at 1.2% decreasing from the previous value of 1.3% and Core CPI Flash Estimate report was published unchanged at 1.0%. As of the current scenario, despite having mixed economic reports on the EUR side, JPY gained impulsive momentum which explains the strength of JPY. As some key economic reports are yet to be published in Japan this week, JPY is expected to extend gains against EUR in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure which is expected to push the price much lower towards 129.50 support area in the coming days. The upcoming momentum in the pair is expected to be quite impulsive on the bearish side where the 129.50 area can be reached quickly. As the price remains below 132.00 price area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com