GBP/USD analysis for September 13, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3123. Anyway, according to the M15 time – frame, I found that buyers got exhausted near resistance 2 (1.3137), which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. I also found the overbought condition on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3036 and at the price of 1.3000.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3091

R2: 1.3137

Support levels:

Daily pivot – 1.3036

S1: 1.2994

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities due to overbought condition.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Bitcoin for September 13, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price broke the supply trendline in the background and the Ichimoku cloud, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found the rising upward trendline and successful rejection of the Tenkan-sen (yellow line), which is another sign of strenght. On the H4 time – frame, I found a fresh cross of Tenkan sen – Kijun sen, which is another positive sign for a further upward movement. Watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $6.696.

Support 1 – $6.384 (yellow line)

Support 2 - $6.309 (purple line)

Objective target - $6.696 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%)

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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EUR / USD pair H1. Options for the development of the movement 12_20 September 2018 Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Minuette (h1)

Euro vs US Dollar

Previous view from 06/09/2018 15:01 UTC + 3.

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The development of EUR / USD currency instrument movement from September 12, 2018 will be determined by how the level of the 1/2 Median Line border channel ( 1.1595 <-> 1.1580 <-> 1.1564 ) and the equilibrium zone ( 1.1580 <-> 1.1564 < -> 1.1540 ) Micro operational scale forks.

Marking the variants of movement within the foregoing lines of the Micro operational scale forks are in the chart.

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Perspective of the downward movement movement (sell)

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1540 (the lower boundary of the ISL61.8) will determine the continuation of the EUR / USD pair downward movement development to the targets -> 1/2 Median Line Minuette ( 1.1510) <-> lower channel boundary 1 / 2ML Minuette (1.1455) <-> LTL Micro control line (1.1410) <-> upper limit ISL38.2 (1.1369) of the normal zone of the operating-scale pitchfork Minuette. For details look at the chart.

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Prospect of the upward movement development (buy)

Breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1595 (the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Micro ) -> variant of the development of the upward movement EUR / USD whose objectives will be -> the initial line SSL ( 1.1630 ) forks of operational scale Micro <-> local maximum `s ( 1.1644 <-> 1.1659 ) <-> warning lineUWL38.2 Minuette ( 1.1690 ) <-> UTL Minuette control line ( 1.1730 ) <-> warning line of the UWL61.8 Minuette ( 1.1755 ). The details are shown in the chart.

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The review is not taking into account the news background and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).

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Materials for the study of the analysis of ZUP & APL`s.

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EUR / USD: Inflation in the US is declining. OPEC expects further growth in oil production

Data released in the euro area in the first half of the day, slightly hurt the risky assets, as all the attention of traders and investors was focused on the report on producer prices in the US. The most attention is drawn to tomorrow's results of the meetings of the central banks of England and the euro area. By the way, inflation in the US declined despite the forecasts of economists.

Eurozone

As I noted above, the data that the volume of industrial production in the euro area in July this year continued to decline did not lead to a sharp drop in the European currency.

It should be noted that the reduction is observed in countries such as Germany and Italy, which is an alarming call for the economies. In the future, the current downward trend in production will necessarily affect the overall growth rate for the third quarter of this year.

Weak industrial production data may also force the European Central Bank to maintain its wait-and-see attitude towards interest rates and asset buy-back programs. This will be known tomorrow.

According to the report, industrial production of the eurozone in July 2018 decreased by 0.8% compared with June, while economists predicted a reduction of only 0.4%. As for the same period in 2017, production fell by 0.1%, while economists forecast growth of 1.2%.

The US dollar only subsided a little after the release of the report on the producer price index in the US.

According to the data, the index of final demand for PPI in the US fell by 0.1% in August, while economists had expected growth of 0.2%. Surprisingly, without taking into account food and energy in the US, producer price inflation also fell 0.1%, against the forecast of economists, who expected growth of 0.2%.

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The index of personal consumption of PPI in the US in August remained unchanged from June, as well as the index of final demand.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, the growth of the European currency remains questionable. Bears will continue to exert pressure on the euro, which will lead to the renewal of the intermediate level of support for 1.1550, and then to the test of the week's lows around 1.1530. As I noted above, a more powerful downward impulse, capable of a breakdown of 1.1530 support, can be formed only following the results of tomorrow's press conference from the ECB.

Oil

Quotes of oil continued to strengthen their positions amid concerns about oil production in Libya after the attack on the national oil company. Today's OPEC report, before publishing important data from the US Department of Energy, did not put pressure on black gold.

I recall that the media reported that armed people tried to storm the headquarters of the Libyan oil company NOC. During the assault, two people were killed. Against this background, the demand for oil rose sharply, as traders were concerned about the risks of interruptions in Libyan oil production.

As I noted above, according to the report, OPEC's total oil production in August this year increased. The production increased by 278,000 barrels per day compared to July, which was directly related to the increase in production in Libya, Iraq, and Nigeria.

As for Saudi Arabia, its production in August increased by 38,000 barrels a day. With regard to oil production outside the OPEC countries, it is projected to grow by 2.02 million barrels per day in 2018, which is lower by 64,000 barrels than last month.

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As for the technical picture on oil, it is very difficult to expect a strong growth above the level of 70.70 US dollars by the WTI brand. Only a serious drop in stocks in the US storage facilities, which could be indicated in today's report from the US Department of Energy, could lead to a breakthrough in the resistance of 70.70 and a larger wave of growth in quotations to areas 71.70 and 72.80 dollars per barrel.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on September 12. Euro buyers do not have enough strength

To open long positions for EUR / USD pair, you need:

In the first half of the day on Wednesday, buyers did not have enough strength to get above the resistance of 1.1605, which I paid attention to in my morning review. A breakthrough of level 1.1605 is necessary to maintain the upward trend, which was formed earlier this week that could lead to a repeat test of highs around 1.1641 and their update in the area of 1.1686, where fixing profits are recommended. If the euro falls below the support level of 1.1570 in the second half of the day, it is best to return to long positions on the rebound from the area of 1.1553.

To open short positions for EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears kept the pair below the resistance level of 1.1605, and now all the calculation for good data on producer prices in the US, which can support the US dollar and will resume pressure on the euro pair. The breakthrough of support 1.1570 will be a signal for the opening of short positions in order to decrease and return to the lows of week 1.1549 and 1.1529, where fixing profits are recommended. In the case of weak data on the US economy, I recommend that I return to sales after the next renewal of resistance 1.1605 or to a rebound from 1.1641.

Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average is on par with the 50-day moving average. This indicates that the trade will be conducted in the side channel.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 13, 2018

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Overview:

The market is still trading above the pivot point (0.9689). It continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9689 to the bottom around 0.9651. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9728 followed by 0.9776, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9651. The USD/CHF pair broke support which turned to strong resistance at 0.9776. Right now, the pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the support (0.9698) which is expected to act as major support today. This would suggest a bearish market because the moving average (100) is still in a negative area and does not show any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9689 and 0.9600, so we expect a range of 89 pips in coming hours. Therefore, the major resistance can be found at 0.9728 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 0.9651. If the trend breaks the minor support at 0.9651, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 0.9600 in order to test the daily support 2. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the spot of 0.9728.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of GBP / USD pair for the week of September 12

Wave picture of the H4 chart:

The bearish wave of April 17 sets the main trend direction of the small scale chart of the pair. The price has reached the upper limit of the large support zone.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

Since August 15, a zigzag wave is forming upward. In the wave of higher timeframe, it is a correction.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The ascending segment of September 5 took the place of the final part (C) in the hourly wave. The price is approaching the target traffic zone.

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Recommended trading strategy:

The EUR/USD pair movement of the vector is expected to change next week. In the area of design resistance, it is proposed to monitor the signals of the sale of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3090 / 1.3140

Support zones:

- 1.2820 / 1.2770

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every time frame is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 13, 2018

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Overview:

As expected, the USD/CAD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.2982 and 1.3088. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3088 to 1.2982. The level of 1.3088 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3041 and 1.3088. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3041 and 1.3088; because the price is in a bearish channel now.

Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3088 and 1.3041. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3041. Furthermore, if the USD/CAD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2989, the market will decline further to 1.2934 (daily support 2). Moreover, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2887 to test it again. The level of 1.2887 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3088, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3100;

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BITCOIN Analysis for September 13, 2018

Bitcoin is still quite indecisive and volatile while residing inside the range between $6,000 to $6,500 area with a daily close. Though the fundamentals are quite positive, they have failed to impact the current market price. The price has been pushing higher with certain correction leading to steady higher lows in the process. If the price is broken above $6,500 with a daily close, the bullish pressure is expected to lead the price towards $8,000 area in the coming days. As the price remains above $6,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 6,000, 5,500

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 7,500, 8,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for September 13, 2018

NZD/USD has managed to push higher, having bounced off the 0.6500 support area with a daily close. So the pair is going to trade higher in the coming days. Despite soft economic reports from new Zealand this week, yesterday NZD managed to counter the preceding bearish trend in the pair.

Today New Zealand FPI report was published with a decrease to -0.5% from the previous value of 0.7% which triggered certain pullbacks in the process. Tomorrow Business NZ Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which previously was at 51.2 and a positive actual result of the economic report is expected to inject further bullish momentum in the process. Besides, RBNZ is not considering rate hikes as they want to stabilize their economy for better in the short and medium term.

On the other hand, amid a series of worse-than-expetced economic reports published recently, USD is quite weak against NZD in the process. Today US CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.2% and Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%. Moreover, Unemployment Claims report is expected to increase to 210k from the previous figure of 203k, Natural Gas Storage is expected to increase to 65B from the previous figure of 63B, and FOMC Members Quarles and Bostic are going to speak today regarding the upcoming interest rate decision and future monetary policies.

Meanwhile, USD has been struggling to gain momentum in the market due to recent worse economic reports whereas any positive figure in pending economic reports is expected to inject some pressure against NZD in the process. Otherwise, NZD may remain having an upper hand over USD.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has pushed higher from a strong support area of 0.6500 area having Bullish Divergence in place which does indicate certain bullish momentum in the pair with target towards 0.6720 resistance area in the coming days before pushing lower with the trend again. As the price remains below 0.6720 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.6500

RESISTANCE: 0.6720, 0.6850

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental analysis of AUD/JPY for September 13, 2018

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish momentum after a bounce off the 76.60 support area which lead the price towards the dynamic level and 80.00 area. AUD has been positive with high impact economic reports today but could not dominate JPY as expected.

Today Australia's MI Inflation Expectation was published unchanged at 4.0%, the Employment Change report was published with a significant increase to 44.0k from the previous figure of -4.3k which was expected to be at 16.5k and the Unemployment Rate was unchanged as expected at 5.3%.

On the JPY side, today the Core Machinery Orders report was published with an increase to 11.0% from the previous value of -8.8% which was expected to be at 5.6% and PPI report was published unchanged at 3.0% which was expected to increase to 3.1%.

As of the current scenario, though JPY has been quite mixed with today's published economic reports, it managed to sustain the bearish momentum against AUD while AUD failed to show the impulsive bullish pressure in the process. As JPY manages to hold gains against AUD, it is expected to continue rising in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which pushed it higher after certain bounce from the 78.60 area. As the trend is bearish, it is expected to push lower towards 78.60 area in the coming days after the Bullish Divergence helped to retrace higher. As the price remains below 80.50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 78.60

RESISTANCE: 80.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Trading plan for 13/09/2018

Finally, an interesting European session is ahead of traders. Important macroeconomic publications from the Eurozone will appear in the morning, emphasis will be placed on inflation data. However, they should not move the market much, because the decisions of central banks will be much more important: first at 01:00 PM Bank of England, and shortly thereafter - at 01:45 PM - the European Central Bank. It is worth watching the behavior of the pound and the euro today.

Analysts are wondering whether today the global investors will finally get to know some details about the QE ending plan. Interesting will also be the forecasts of individual economic indicators. Some economists expect a slight reduction in expected GDP growth for 2018 and 2019. Generally, however, the language of the published statement should be positive. The ECB will rather remain certain as to the action of the policy and the increase in inflation. The Bank will slowly be preparing markets to change the current policy and start tightening it. The next rate hike should take place in the second half of next year, and all major institutions agree. At 02:30 PM a question and answer session will take place with the ECB president Mario Draghi. Then maybe more issues regarding the monetary policy of the Bank will be clarified.

Although Brexit's negotiations are the hottest topic in Britain, it is worth focusing on the moves of the Bank of England today. Although the markets do not expect changes in interest rates, there may still be more volatility at the pound. GBPUSD has been steadily growing for more than a week, the pair managed to return above the round level of 1.30. Due to the period, that the BoE Governonor Mark Carney referred to as the "critical time" for Brexit negotiations, it is unlikely that the Bank's meeting would bring about any changes in the monetary policy or guidelines. The global investors expect the key message of a "gradual and limited" interest rate increase in the coming years to remain valid, but as noted at the last meeting, the outcome of negotiations with the EU is now a key impact on the institution's ability to comply with these guidelines.

EUR/USD analysis for 13/09/2018:

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair moved flat all night, but the traders should expect more movements around the announcement of decisions. So far, there is a wall of the resistance levels between 1.1655 - 1.1617 and a tight zone of a technical support at the levels of 1.1525 - 1.1520. The market will likely be moving inside of this zone if Draghi will not tell anything new. Nevertheless, any information that will be treated as a new for the market participants might trigger the spike higher, above the wall of resistance, towards the level of 1.1746.

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Bitcoin analysis for 13/09/2018

The Bank of Russia successfully conducted an experiment on issuing tokens, said the bank's officials during the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. Ivan Semagin, deputy director of the bank's financial development department, told forum participants that the regulatory body had tested the "experimental ICO based on existing infrastructure" in the regulatory sandbox of the Bank of Russia. Although the experiment was successful, there are still some problems: "Within the "sandbox" ... everything went well in technical terms, but from a legal point of view there were many problems" - he explained, however, he did not provide exactly what these legal problems concern.

The test was originally announced in May, when the largest Russian retail bank Sberbank, together with the Russian National Depository (NSD), said it was working on the ICO test. The experiment was to include a company called Level One as the issuer of ICO, Sberbank as the "coordinator of the issue and anchor investor" and NSD as a depository, registering and clearing transactions, as well as securing assets: "Many Sberbank customers are interested in this type of investment, and we plan to promote this service proactively when the appropriate legal framework comes into effect; we will be one of the factors enabling the institutionalization and popularization of this type of transaction" - claimed senior vice president of Sberbank, Igor Bulantsev.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the internal trend line resistance and reached the nearest technical resistance at the level of $6,365. If bulls want to continue the rally higher, then the next target is seen at the level of $6,416 and then $6,514. Only if these two levels are violated, the market will be able to break out from the consolidation zone and move higher toward the level of $6,752. Otherwise, the horizontal corrective cycle will continue.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 13, 2018

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The break below minor support at 1.7716 indicates that red wave iii completed at 1.7825 and red wave iv towards 1.7605 is developing. Once this correction is complete, renewed upside pressure towards 1.8030 and possibly even closer to 1.8369 is expected.

Short-term, we expect minor resistance at 1.7791 will cap the upside for the decline closer to 1.7605.

R3: 1.7954

R2: 1.7900

R1: 1.7825

Pivot: 1.7791

S1: 1.7736

S2: 1.7700

S3: 1.7650

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.7730 was hit for a nice 400 pips profit. We will wait for a dip to 1.7615 before buying EUR.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 13, 2018

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We still would prefer a second corrective dip closer to 128.57 before the next impulsive rally through short-term important resistance at 129.98 that will confirm red wave (3) being well underway towards 136.50 and higher.

It's possible that EUR/JPY breaks directly above resistance at 129.98 and skips the second dip. We think it comes down to the Market having enough patience or not.

R3: 130.49

R2: 129.98

R1: 129.75

Pivot: 129.23

S1: 129.09

S2: 128.74

S3: 128.57

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 129.10 with our stop placed at 127.75. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 128.57 or upon a break above 129.98 and use the same stop at 127.75.

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, Sept 13, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Main Refinancing Rate, French Final CPI m/m, and German Final CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Federal budget balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Core CPI m/m, and CPI m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1682.

Strong Resistance:1.1675.

Original Resistance: 1.1664.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1653.

Target Inner Area: 1.1625.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1597.

Original Support: 1.1586.

Strong Support: 1.1575.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1568.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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USD/CAD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce

USD/CAD is approaching its support at 1.2966(61.8% Fibonacci extension x3, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 1.3039 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 2.7% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

USD/CAD is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 1.2966. Stop loss at 1.2933. Take profit at 1.3039.

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EUR/USD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance at 1.1656 (100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 97% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.1656. Stop loss 1.1694. Take profit at 1.1567.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, Sept 13, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the PPI y/y, Core Machinery Orders m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data such as Federal Budget Balance,30-y Bond Auction, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, Core CPIm/m, and CPI m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.98.

Resistance. 2: 111.76.

Resistance. 1: 111.54.

Support. 1: 111.28.

Support. 2: 111.06.

Support. 3: 110.84.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 13, 2018

The recent bearish movement of the GBP/USD has shown signs of weakness since September 5 when an ascending bottom was established around 1.2800

The GBP/USD pair is currently testing the depicted downtrend line which comes to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.

This price zone (1.3025-1.3090) corresponds to 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels where evident bearish rejection should be anticipated.

As long as sings of bearish rejection are demonstrated below 1.3020 (50% Fibo level), the short-term outlook remains bearish towards 1.2840 and 1.2780.

On the other hand, successful bullish breakout above 1.3090 will probably hinder the current bearish movement allowing further bullish advancement to occur towards 1.3200, 1.3250 and 1.3315.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 13, 2018

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The EUR/USD pair is currently trapped between the depicted technical levels (1.1750 - 1.1500). Breakout movement should be anticipated.

Bearish breakdown of 1.1520 is needed allow further bearish decline towards 1.1420. Next bearish target would be located around 1.1275.

For the major reversal pattern to be confirmed, a quick bearish breakdown below 1.1420 will be needed to gain enough bearish momentum.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 13, 2018

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In April, a bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (lower limit of the consolidation range) allowed quick bearish decline towards 0.6700-0.6800 where narrow ranged consolidation range was established.

On August 9, bearish breakout below the depicted consolidation range (0.6840-0.6700) was executed. This allowed the recent bearish decline to occur towards 0.6600-0.6570.

The NZD/USD pair outlook turned to be bearish. Bearish targets are projected towards the price levels of 0.6520 and 0.6480.

Recently, signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the previous weekly/monthly low around 0.6550. This allowed the recent bullish pullback towards 0.6700 to be demonstrated.

The evident bearish rejection was demonstrated around 0.6700 (broken demand-zone and backside of the broken-trend) where the current bearish decline was initiated.

Currently, the price level of 0.6550 stands as a prominent demand-level which needs to be broken down so that further bearish decline can occur towards 0.6420.

However, recent daily candlesticks represent lack of enough bearish momentum below 1.6550. Recent bullish recovery was demonstrated above 0.6550.

That's why, conservative traders shouldn't consider the current bearish breakdown as a successful one. Bullish movement towards 0.6600 and 0.6660 should be expected as well.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for September 13, 2018

The Gold price has broken above the tenkan-sen resistance and might continue higher towards the cloud resistance at $1,220 if we break above $1,209. Short-term trend is bullish as long as the price is above $1,190.

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The Gold price is finally moving higher. The entire corrective phase should unfold with a move higher towards cloud resistance. The daily trend remains bearish as the price is below the Kumo (cloud). Support is at $1,190 and if broken will open the way for a push towards $1,170 and lower.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 13, 2018

EUR/USD is trying to break above major resistance area of 1.1630-1.1660. The price briefly broke above the resistance area but sellers came right back in to push prices towards 1.16. I prefer to be neutral or bearish as the price is right below the major resistance area.

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Red line - resistance trend line

Green line - support trend line

Orange dots - medium strength resistance

Red dots - maximum strength resistance

Blue dots - medium strength support

EUR/USD bulls try to break above the resistance at 1.1630. So far without success. A rejection at current levels could bring price towards the Green support at 1.1540. Breaking below this support will open the way for a push towards 1.14 and lower. On the other hand, if prices manage to break and hold above 1.1660 we will certainly see a test of 1.1730-1.1750 area.

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The September meeting of the Bank of England: preview

Meetings of the British regulator, as a rule, attract special attention of traders of the pound/dollar pair, especially when they are accompanied by the publication of Monetary Policy Summary (summary of monetary policy). But Thursday's meeting of the Bank of England members is unlikely to determine the direction of the pair's movement: despite the importance of this event, traders are now focused more on political twists and turns, and we are talking not only about the prospects of Brexit.

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The wave-like dynamics of the GBP/USD pair is explained by several reasons, among which the dominant place is, of course, the "divorce process" of London and Brussels. But more recently, another fundamental factor has been added to the diverse palette of the news flow – the possible resignation of Theresa May. Here it is worth noting that that under the British prime minister, the armchair has repeatedly been unsteady, she was criticized and criticized both by representatives of the Labor Party and by Conservative Party members.

So this time the press reported that on Tuesday about fifty members of Parliament from the Conservative Party discussed the possibility of the resignation of the head of government. As one of the participants of the meeting told the journalist, his colleagues plan to take active actions in the second half of autumn, when the details of the final agreement between London and Brussels will become known. Theresa May's plan, tentatively called Chequers, does not suit many conservatives (Boris Johnson and David Davis resigned because of her), so if the outlines of a deal with Europe has been acquired, the "hawk wing" of the conservatives is ready to initiate impeachment.

This news had a considerable pressure on the pound, however, in my opinion, there is no reason for concern. First, the last impeachment procedure in Britain was brought to its logical conclusion more than two hundred years ago. In the long history of Britain, this incident was one of a kind. While the parliamentary initiative of impeachment arose quite often. For example, the last time the prime minister wanted to resign was 14 years ago, when Tony Blair was accused of providing false information about the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. However, despite the seriousness of the charges, the impeachment did not take place. And it is unlikely to take place this time.

And it's not just a complex, multi-level impeachment procedure. Although this nuance also can not be ignored. First, the lower house of Parliament forms a special committee, whose members study the validity (and seriousness) of the charges. The committee then issues its verdict, after which all materials are sent to the House of Lords, who act as arbitrators. In other words, at each stage, the initiators of impeachment must have strong support, and the accusations must be "concrete". Neither of them has any initiative group:

The initiative group has neither: out of 320 representatives of the Conservative party In the House of Commons, the initiative of impeachment was previously supported by only 50 deputies. Moreover, they did not even dare to at least formally launch the impeachment process (this requires 48 signatures), as they are not certain of their victory. All this suggests that on Tuesday the pound reacted too emotionally to the news of a possible impeachment: behind the loud headline there was only an "information bubble", which had a temporary impact on the pair.

Thus, the Bank of England at Thursday's meeting is unlikely to take into account the political "disassembly" of the conservatives. Brexit divided the conservatives into "hawks" and "pigeons," and the confrontation between them has lasted for more than two years. And the threat of impeachment against the prime minister is only an element of information warfare, nothing more.

But the English regulator is unlikely to ignore Brexit's own question. Of course, the representatives of the central bank will not comment on the negotiation process, but at the same time they will certainly remind that the prospects of monetary policy depends on their outcome. Mark Carney has reiterated this, in fact linking the "divorce process" with the actions of the regulator.

In the light of the latest statistical reports, this fact plays a special role. The growth of GDP, inflation and wages against the background of record-low unemployment created the necessary conditions for accelerating the rate hike next year (if the Brexit deal is concluded). If the head of the British central bank tomorrow will allow such a possibility, the pound will receive a strong impetus for its growth. Such a hint means that the regulator is ready to double the rate in 2019 if current trends in the economy of the country remain. It is also worth noting here that Mark Carney recently agreed to remain in office until January 31, 2020, to lead the central bank through the "zone of turbulence" after Britain's exit from the EU. Thus, he extended his mandate for a further seven months, and as did his deputy John Cunliffe.

In summary, it should be noted that the meeting of the Bank of England is unlikely to play the "first violin" among other fundamental factors on Thursday. Mark Carney will ignore the political games of the conservatives, but will surely reiterate the importance of the "divorce process" between London and Brussels. He can also positively assess the dynamics of wage growth in the country and the British economy as a whole.

I note that Mark Carney is more straightforward (compared to Mario Draghi, for example), so we can not exclude the fact that he will allow the probability of accelerating the pace of tightening of monetary policy next year. Naturally, under the condition of a soft Brexit. In this case, the pound will receive strong support, especially if this rhetoric is accompanied by positive signals from the negotiating group.

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From the technical point of view, the pair is now almost at the resistance level of 1.3045 (the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart). Also, the pair is between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator formed a "Golden cross" signal. The combination of these signals indicates the priority of long positions with the main target of 1.3150 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on D1). However, on the eve of such important fundamental events, relying on techniques is not necessary: the results of Thursday can "redraw" the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair.

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Gold: music did not last long

If someone thought that the recent success of gold suggests the end of the downward medium-term trend, then the US employment report for August became a tub of cold water. The fastest growth in average wages since 2009 increased the risks of accelerating the pace of inflation and raised the probability of four Federal funds rate hikes in 2018 at above 80%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds at arm's length approached the psychologically important level of 3%, which supported the US dollar. It is the strength of the US currency that is a real scourge for the precious metal this year.

Music for "bulls" on the XAU/USD did not last for long. Speculators resumed selling of gold at the end of the five-day period by September 4. As a result, their net-short positions increase over the course of eight of the last nine weeks, which allows us to speak of a "bearish" market situation.

Dynamics of speculative positions on gold in the derivatives market

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The growth of employment outside the agricultural sector by 201 thousand in August, the drop in unemployment to the lowest levels since the 1960s and +0.4% m/m on average wages are not the figures that fans of the precious metals wanted to see. Investors almost believed in the Federal funds rate hike in September and December, and even taking into account the patterns that worked in the recent past, gold is unlikely to be able to critically counterattack before the FOMC meeting on the 25th-26th. We are talking about the fall of the XAU/USD on the eve of historical meetings of the Fed, ending with the tightening of monetary policy, followed by the restoration of positions after important meetings.

Along with the monetary tightening of the Fed, the pressure on the analyzed asset is caused by trade wars. Donald Trump tortured markets with threats of expanding import tariffs first by $200 billion, and then another $267 billion if necessary. If this happens, the total amount of tariffs, taking into account the ones that have already been introduced, will be $517 billion, which is more than all the deliveries of goods to the US from China in 2017 ($505 billion). The dollar took away the position of the safe-haven asset from gold, so the escalation of the trade conflict is considered as a "bearish" factor for the XAU/USD.

What's next? Investors should closely monitor the release of data on consumer prices in the United States. According to the consensus assessment of Bloomberg experts, by the end of August they will slow down from 2.9% to 2.8% y/y, core inflation will continue to grow at the same rate of 2.4% y/y. If in fact it turns out to be stronger data, "bulls" on the USD index will get another reason to attack. Gold, on the contrary, will be forced to retreat. However, if inflation turns out to be sluggish, then the initiative is already taken by the "bulls" of the XAU/USD.

Technically, on the daily chart of the precious metal, after reaching the targets of 88.6% and 261.8% on the "Double Top" and AB=CD patterns, it was followed by a natural rollback and consolidation in the range of $1184-1214 per ounce. Breaking the upper limit of the "Shelf" of the "Splash and Shelf" pattern will increase the risks of a correction to $1240 and above. On the contrary, a successful storm of support for $1184 will open the way for the "bears" to the south.

Gold, daily chart

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EUR/USD: on the eve of " super Thursday"

The euro-dollar pair is trading on the background of a diverse fundamental background, which, on the one hand, supports the dollar, and on the other hand – does not allow the euro to fall. The uneasy relations of the US with China, the European Union and more recently with Japan, reduce risk appetite and, accordingly, increase demand for the dollar. The European currency also has its own "allies" – Italy, which has promised to adhere to EU rules when adopting a budget; Brexit, which recently is pleased with progress in the negotiations and, finally, data, which indicates the continued recovery of the Eurozone economy.

Such a "balance of power" led to the fact that the pair has been fluctuating for the second week in a flat 1.1570-1.1630. However, the price can impulsively expand this area, but judging by the open-close price, it can be concluded that the pair's movement vector has not yet been determined. Bears and bulls of the pair have their own arguments for the price movement, but at the moment their strengths are quite equal.

The situation can change drastically on Thursday, when we learn the dynamics of the growth of US inflation, as well as listen to the head of the ECB following the September meeting of the European regulator. It is quite rare that such key events occur on the same day and even at about the same time. Therefore, for the euro/dollar pair, tomorrow will is a kind of "super-Thursday", which, firstly, will cause strong volatility, and secondly-can determine the direction of the trend in the near future.

According to the vast majority of experts, Mario Draghi is unlikely to surprise the market tomorrow. This meeting, by and large, is considered to be a "pass-through", since no key decisions will be made, and the main attention of traders will be focused on the tone of the ECB head's rhetoric. It is about his assessment of inflation processes in the euro area and general trends in the eurozone economy. In addition, his comment on the external fundamental background, especially against the background of continuing trade conflicts, is of particular interest.

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Here it is necessary to make a small digression. Let me remind you that Mario Draghi has repeatedly criticized protectionism in world trade, raising this problem as a factor of uncertainty for ECB members. In other words, he linked global trade conflicts to the prospects for monetary policy in the eurozone. First of all we are talking about trade relations between the EU and the USA. After the head of the European Commission reached preliminary agreements with the US President, Mario Draghi somewhat softened his position on this issue, while maintaining his inherent caution. He said that there were no final results of the negotiations, so we should wait for them before making any conclusions.

After the fact, he was right, as the first meeting of the working group on this issue ended in vain. According to its participants, at the end of September, the parties will again meet and start developing a trade deal between the US and the EU. Despite the fact that Brussels and Washington are clearly trying not to bring the situation to an open conflict, the situation remains de facto in limbo. Therefore, Mario Draghi can focus on this aspect tomorrow.

Moreover, other trade conflicts continue to persist: Trump threatens to impose additional tariffs on all Chinese imports, and Beijing, in turn, plans to impose sanctions against the United States. In addition, the White house began to exert some pressure on Japan: the second meeting of the trade minister of Japan and the US trade representative will be held on September 21. The Japanese do not want to conclude a free trade agreement with the Americans, despite Trump's threats to impose tariffs on cars imported from Japan.

Thus, Mario Draghi has plenty of reasons to be cautious: starting from the uncertain perspectives of Brexit and ending with global trade conflicts. Therefore, in my opinion, the head of the ECB will take a dual position tomorrow: on the one hand, it will positively assess the growth of inflation in the euro area against the background of a decrease in unemployment, but on the other hand - will note the risks and high degree of uncertainty in the financial markets.

Such a generally neutral position can put pressure on the European currency, as traders want to hear from the ECB head at least a hint of willingness to raise rates next year. According to general expectations, the central bank will start tightening monetary policy in the second half of next year. And if Draghi at least veleidly confirms these intentions, the euro will get a reason for large-scale growth. However, knowing the known caution of Mario, such a scenario is very unlikely.

Now a few words about the US release. Let me remind you that the inflationary component of Non Farms at the end of last week supported the dollar, wages are rising at a good pace, exceeding modest forecasts of currency strategists. Therefore, if tomorrow the consumer price index confirms "healthy trends" in this direction, the probability of the fourth rate hike by the Fed this year will increase, and the dollar index, respectively, will show a positive trend.

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According to preliminary forecasts, annual inflation will slow down slightly to 2.8%, while on a monthly basis it will grow to 0.3%. The consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy (Core CPI) should remain at the July level, i.e. at levels of 2.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Most likely, this release will have a significant impact on the pair only if it deviates from the forecast scenario.

In general, the euro-dollar pair may either fall under the 15th figure or test the resistance levels of 1.1650-1.1680 tomorrow. This will be the case if the release of the CPI and the rhetoric of the ECB "will resonate" with each other: for example, the strong growth dynamics of the US inflation will coincide with the soft rhetoric of Draghi. Or in a mirror situation, when weak data from the US will coincide with the unexpected optimism of the ECB head. But if these events pass "unheeded", then the pair in the medium term will not be able to get out of being flat, having demonstrated only impulsive price jumps.

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From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair still needs to gain a foothold above 1.1610 (the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart). In this case, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator will generate a "Golden Cross" signal, which indicates the priority of buying. If this scenario is implemented, then the following price targets will be the boundaries of the Kumo cloud on D1 - 1.1650 and 1.1680, respectively.

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GBP/USD: the plan for the US session on September 12. Buyers of the pound were in a difficult situation

To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Buyers of the pound failed to gain a foothold above the morning resistance of 1.3020, which led to the formation of a new market level of 1.3031, on which a further upward trend depends. Only after consolidating above this range will it be possible to expect a second wave of growth with the update of the weekly high near 1.3077 and going beyond it to the area of 1.3119, where I recommend to lock in the profit.

The support area of 1.2981 has saved the pound from falling several times, but I do not recommend that you rely on it in the second test. It is best to open long positions in the afternoon for a rebound from the lows of 1.2937 and 1.2898.

To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Sellers returned to the resistance level of 1.3020, which led to the planned selling of the pound. At the moment, the main task is to re-test and break the support of 1.2981, which can lead to a larger downward wave with the update of weekly lows 1.2937 and 1.2898, where I recommend to lock in the profit. If the data on the US is worse than economists ' forecasts, the weakness of the US dollar may lead to a re-test, and possibly to a breakdown in the resistance of 1.3031. In this scenario, it is best to open short positions on a rebound from the weekly high of 1.3077.

Indicator signals:

The 30-day moving average crossed from top to bottom 50-day. The price is below the moving averages, indicating a decline in the pound in the short term.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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BITCOIN Analysis for September 12, 2018

BITCOIN has been quite volatile and corrective which has been observed to have a bearish squeeze below $6,500 area which indicates a breakout with impulsive momentum from the triangle pattern area. The price has been pushing lower recently with lower highs while the higher lows in the triangle are not quite strong enough to create strong pullbacks. Meanwhile, the price is expected to push lower towards $6,000 area while also breaking below the triangle support as well. As the price remains above $6,000 area, there would be certain chance to have an impulsive bullish bounce off the area to resume the bullish momentum again in the market.

SUPPORT: 6000

RESISTANCE: 6500, 7500

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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