The director of Tesla will leave the company because of a loss of $ 1 billion

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The head of the American manufacturer of electric cars Tesla Elon Musk announced that the financial director of the company Deepak Ahuja will leave his post this year amid unsatisfactory financial results.

In 2018, Tesla suffered a loss of $ 976 million, but compared with the previous year, it declined more than twice, the previous year the figure was $ 1.9 billion.

At the same time, the company achieved record revenue of $ 21.4 billion, in the fourth quarter it was $ 7.2 billion. The last two quarters for the company were successful, in the third quarter the net profit of the manufacturer of electric cars reached $ 311.5 million, in the fourth, $ 139.4 million.

Earlier, on January 18, Musk said that the company would cut 7% of employees (3,400 people) in order to reduce costs to increase production volumes of Tesla Model 3 electric vehicles.

The head of the company called 2018 the worst in his career, during which he aged for five years.

During yesterday's trading, Tesla's stock price rose by 3.80%, to $ 308.77, the maximum since January 18.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for January 31, 2019

EUR/GBP recently bounced off the 0.8600 support area after non-volatile impulsive bearish pressure pushing price lower since the bullish rejection off the 0.9100 area back in December 2018. EUR has been trading mixed amid the economic reports today that weakened the impulsive pressure in the pair against GBP it created recently.

EUR and GBP have been sensitive to the BREXIT developments recently. As a result, GBP gained non-volatile momentum against EUR. British Prime Minister Theresa May has been on a conflict with the European Union recently after lawmakers told her to renegotiate the BREXIT divorce deal. The conflict led to certain indecision in the market while EUR failed to be consistently better amid the economic data published recently. Moreover, BREXIT may deal a blow to Germany's economy.

Recently UK Net Lending to Individuals report was published with an increase to 4.8B from the previous figure of 4.6B which was expected to decrease to 4.3B and M4 Money Supply was also increased to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.2%. Today, UK GfK Consumer Confidence report was published unchanged as expected at -14 and Nationwide HPI increased to 0.3% from the previous negative value of -0.7% which was expected to be at 0.2%.

On the EUR side, today Spanish Flash GDP report was published with an increase to 0.7% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.6% and Prelim Flash GDP report was published unchanged as expected at 0.2%.

Meanwhile, GBP has been more positive thanks to the recently published economic results but it failed to regain momentum over EUR that sustained the bullish momentum in the pair because of mixed economic reports. The current market bias indicates the sentiment of market participants. EUR is now winning favor with investors that opens the way for further gains.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently approaching the dynamic level of 20 EMA after the recent bounce off the 0.8600 support area with a daily close. The price formed Bullish Extreme Divergence in the process which might lead to sustaining further bullish pressure in the process. As the price remains below 0.8850 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.8500, 0.8600-50

RESISTANCE: 0.8850, 0.8950

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The most significant decline in oil production in OPEC is expected in the last two years

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In January, oil supplies by OPEC countries decreased the most in the last two years, according to a Reuters survey, since the largest exporter, Saudi Arabia, is the only one operating at full capacity, while in Iran, Libya and Venezuela there is a decrease. The 14-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 30.98 million barrels per day in January, down 890,000 barrels per day compared to December and the largest decline since January 2017.

Recall oil rose to $ 62 per barrel after falling below $ 50 in December, helped by Saudi Arabia's actions, supply disruptions in several OPEC countries and the prospect of lower supplies from Venezuela after US President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on the local oil industry. OPEC, Russia and other countries agreed in December to cut shipments by 1.2 million barrels per day from January 1. OPEC's share of this reduction is 800,000 barrels per day, with an exception made for Iran, Libya, and Venezuela. The data showed that on January, 11 OPEC members, bound by the new agreement on the restriction of supply, reached 70 percent of the promised reductions. A further decline in Iran, Libya and Venezuela increased the overall OPEC figure to 890,000 barrels per day.

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What will February look like at Forex?

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What traders will remember from January? This is probably due to the fact that long positions on USD / CHF brought 1.5%, on USD / SEK, 2.6%, and "shorts" on EUR / NOK, over 2%. Sales of the single European currency against the greenback before the ECB meeting also justified themselves, but expectations about easing the Fed's position ruined the "bears" on the EUR / USD holiday. Now it's February, what to expect from it?

The best results in the second month of the year are most often demonstrated by the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as the Japanese yen. This may seem somewhat surprising given the fact that last year they almost simultaneously became cheaper against the background of the escalation of trade conflicts. Then the "American" took away the status of a defensive asset from competing currencies on the G10, and "Aussie" and "Kiwi" went at a peak mainly because of concerns about a slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese economy. Now, the opposite situation is possible if the trade negotiations between the United States and the Middle Kingdom will be crowned with success.

Meanwhile, the British currency is traditionally among the outsiders of February. According to some estimates, since 1975, it has closed in the "red" zone in 24 cases out of 44, losing an average of 0.62% in weight. It is possible that the euphoria surrounding the extension of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty has taken the pound sterling too far, and investors will soon begin to take profits.

As for the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar, the oil quotes have recently pushed off the short-term bottom, but if trade negotiations between the US and China cease, prices may resume falling, followed by the looney and the Norwegian. Moreover, as the events of last year show, as soon as the cost of Brent crude oil exceeded $ 65 a barrel, American producers actively increased their production of black gold.

Thus, in the case of the resolution of trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, a better option than long positions in the AUD / USD and NZD / USD pairs in February will probably be difficult to find. The bulls will surely be able to benefit from improved global risk appetite, as well as hopes for a recovery in the Chinese economy. It is assumed that while maintaining the adverse political landscape in the UK as Brexit approaches, the GBP / JPY sales and EUR / GBP purchases will be relevant. If the corrective movement of oil prices does not occur, then it makes sense to pay attention to the "longs" in the EUR / NOK and EUR / CAD pairs.

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 31, 2019

Bitcoin rejected off the $3,500 with strong bearish pressure which pushed the price towards $3,450. The price is currently residing at the edge of Kumo Cloud support from where it has a greater probability to push higher as per recent proceeding higher swing lows, having confluence as support to climb upwards in the coming days. Until the price remains above the Kumo cloud i.e. $3,400 with a daily close, there is a probability of a further upward move with a break above $3,500. The price can proceed higher towards $4,000 in the future. As the price remains above $3,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,250

RESISTANCE: 3,500, 3,600, 4,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Trump: Trade negotiations between the United States and China are "going well", but there will be no deal

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US President Donald Trump is optimistic about the interim results of top-level trade negotiations with Chinese officials in Washington but said that the final deal will not be reached until he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping. On Wednesday, the United States and China launched a key round of talks aimed at overcoming differences over intellectual property and technology transfer and easing a multi-month wage war. Trump is due to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House.

"China's leading resellers are meeting with our representatives in the United States. Meetings are going well with good intentions on both sides. But there will be no final deal until my friend President Xi and I meet in the near future to discuss and agree on some long-standing and more complex issues," Trump wrote on Twitter.

Trump said the negotiators are working to complete the deal before March 1, the deadline agreed by both parties.

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Simplified wave analysis of AUD / USD for January 31

Large-scale graphics:

Since the end of January last year, a descending wave has been formed at the price of an "Aussie". The structure of the wave is close to the impulse type of motion.

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Medium scale graphics:

The bull wave of January 3 has a high wave potential. In the structure of a larger structure, it may take the place of the correction of the entire previous trend section.

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Small-scale graphics:

On January 25, the bullish wave started, which completes the upward zigzag of the older TF. In the coming days, a short-term depreciation is not excluded.

Forecast and recommendations:

The price of the instrument is in a lifting phase, which may be delayed for the entire next month. Before the price breaks up, the probability of a price pullback is high, which can be used by bull traders.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7600 / 0.7650

- 0.7340 / 0.7390

Support areas:

- 0.7170 / 0.7120

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR: Italy fell into recession, and inflation in key eurozone countries continues to slow down

Weak data on the growth of the eurozone economy, which came out today in the first half of the day, hurt euro buyers. It does not allow to form the continuation of the new upward trend formed after yesterday's report of the Federal Reserve System.

The Eurozone GDP growth in 2018 turned out to be the weakest in four years and only good data on the German labor market, which began in 2019 with a strong note and limited the downward movement in risky assets.

According to the report of the Federal Employment Service of Germany, the number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 2,000 in January 2019 compared with December. On the other hand, economists had forecast a decline in the number of unemployed in the country by 10,000 in January. The number of registered vacancies in January was 758,000. Despite the reduction in the number of applications, there was a slowdown compared with December, which, together with recent statistics on the German economy as a whole, does not form a bright prospect for the future. In January, the unemployment in Germany remained unchanged at the level of 5.0%.

As I noted above, GDP growth in the eurozone has seriously slowed.

According to the EU Statistics Agency, the eurozone's GDP in 2018 grew by only 1.8% over the year, after rising 2.4% in 2017. As for the growth in the 4th quarter compared to the 3rd quarter of 2018, then the growth came close to zero and amounted to only 0.2%, which completely coincided with economists' forecasts. A similar indicator was observed in the 3rd quarter of 2018.

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All of these suggest that the prospects for the eurozone economy at the beginning of this year are very weak due to increased geopolitical and trade risks. Activity is still noticeable in Spain and Germany but Italy has already slipped into recession. The German authorities today revised their forecasts for the country's GDP growth in the current year to 1% from 1.8%.

A report was issued Already today, stating that the preliminary GDP of Italy in the 4th quarter of this year fell immediately by 0.2% compared to the 3rd quarter and grew only by 0.1% over the year. Economists had forecast of 4% decline in Italy's GDP by 0.1% and a 0.3% increase, respectively.

Most likely, individual problems of the Italian authorities in pursuit of widening the budget deficit can be attributed to obvious reasons affecting the decline in economic growth in many eurozone countries. Let me remind you that last year there was a multi-month confrontation between the Italian government and the EU due to the planned increase in the budget deficit, which affected business and consumer sentiment.

As for the preliminary data on inflation, the CPI of France in January of this year fell immediately by 0.5% m / m and rose only by 1.2% on an annualized basis. Economists had expected inflation to fall by 0.6% and growth by 1.1%, respectively. The EU harmonized consumer price index HCPI of France in January rose 1.4% year-on-year.

As for the similar indicators in Spain, the harmonized consumer price index HCPI in January rose by 1.0% per annum against the forecast of growth by 1.2%.

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Why has the Fed radically changed the way of thinking and what will happen to the dollar?

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A portion of the "dovish" comments by Jerome Powell turned out to be too big and saturated. The market will probably need additional time to finally digest the information. The Fed members in their accompanying statement replaced the wording on "further gradual rate increase" with words about the dependence of the decisions taken by the Central Bank on the incoming data. In addition, Powell said that the arguments in favor of continuing the cycle of normalization of monetary policy are becoming less. If the situation in the country's economy worsens, the Central Bank will slow down the process of reducing the balance.

The derivatives market has reduced the likelihood of a rate hike this year from 25% to 10%. At the same time, the chances of monetary expansion increased from 4% to 9%. Now CME futures and interest rate swaps point to a loosening of monetary policy in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020. Capital Economics believes that the Fed will lower the federal funds rate early next year. Such a step they will take with increased risks of a recession.

Note that in December the regulator was set to continue the normalization cycle at almost the same pace as in 2018. Traders cannot understand how the worldview of the Fed could change dramatically in just six weeks. According to Jerome Powell, the reason is the tightening of financial conditions, the slowing down of the economies of China and the eurozone, Brexit, and the downtime of the US government. Market participants did not find anything new in this list; the indicated factors were relevant at the end of last year.

Perhaps the cause of the "pigeon" moods should be sought inside the FOMC. At least that's what JP Morgan thinks. Barclays experts have suggested that the Fed capitulated to the volatility of the financial markets. Although Powell does not recognize that the Central Bank is conquered by the onslaught of Donald Trump, the policy of appointing opponents to an increase in the rate of membership in the Committee is making itself felt.

It has become absolutely clear: Powell and his team have little faith that the strongest labor market in recent decades can generate inflation. In addition, raising rates with global economic growth of 4% and more is one thing. Other - if the indicator slows down to 3.5%.

The over-pigeon mood of Powell and other senior officials of the Central Bank turned into a real catastrophe for the dollar. A pair of EUR / USD in the same breath flew out of the range of consolidation of 1.1265-1.1485. Here we can not exclude the update of the January highs. However, first of all, the European "bull" will need to pass a test, which they organize a report on the US labor market. Positive tickles their nerves, and negative bless the rally of the main currency pair in the direction of 1.1615-1.163.

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The extremely sluggish reaction was shown by the GBP / USD pair, and there are reasons for it. The pound is burdened by the burden of its problems. British Prime Minister Theresa May is running out of time for the Brexit settlement. There are 2 weeks left to find the best alternative for the Irish backstop mechanism. May promised the parliamentarians that they would be able to take control of Brexit on February 13, if she failed to make significant progress on the revision of the agreement. Parliament expects May to resume discussions with EU officials and change the conditions on the Irish border.

If the British Prime Minister cannot convince the EU representatives, then she will have only one option: to make the parliament support a slightly adjusted version of the current agreement. The coming two weeks will be a test for the pound, the risks for the currency look downward. Only a very brave trader can put on sterling now.

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Simplified wave analysis of GBP / JPY pair for the week of January 31

Large-scale graph:

The dominant direction of the cross from February of last year was set by the descending wave. By now, its structure has been completed. The calculated goal of the decline and the proportions of all parts have been achieved.

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Medium-scale graph:

The bullish wave from January 3 only formally refers to the H1 scale. Its high wave level in the near future will transfer all movement to a larger scale.

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Small-scale graph:

From January 25, the price will drop, forming a downward wave of small scale. In the design of a larger TF area completes the hidden correction.

Forecast and recommendations:

The period of active price rise was replaced by a corrective decline. Sales in such conditions are risky. It is recommended in the area of settlement support to track the signals of purchase of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 144.00 / 144.50

Support areas:

- 140.80 / 140.30

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). Three consecutive graphs are used for analysis. Each of these analyzes the last incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure and the dotted exhibits the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on January 31. Low pound activity related directly to uncertainty with Brexit

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The situation has not changed in comparison with the morning forecast. British pound buyers may resume an uptrend but this will require a breakdown of the resistance at 1.3135. Only after the prospect of updating the highs of 1.3214 and 1.3260 will open, where I recommend taking profits. However, a larger upward movement will depend on negotiations between British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU representatives. In the case of a downward correction, I recommend buying the pound only if there is a false breakdown around 1.3053 or for a rebound from 1.2971.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The failure to consolidate above resistance 1.3135, which was observed in the first half of the day, led to an attempt to resume the downward movement in the pound, and as long as trading continues below this range, sellers will expect to return to the support area 1.3053, a breakthrough that could lead to a further drop in GBP USD with a minimum of 1.2971 and 1.2894, where I recommend to take profits. In the case of a pound rising above 1.3135, it is best to look at short positions after updating the highs of the month at 1.3260 and 1.3348. Any news of the failure of negotiations between May and EU representatives could lead to a rapid fall in the pound.

More details in the video forecast for January 31

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on the market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on January 31. Euro Buyers Return Against Low Statistics

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Amid weak fundamental statistics for the eurozone, euro buyers were expected to return to the market only after the test of the support level of 1.1471, which I talked about in more detail in my morning review. At the moment, the main task is the breakdown of the resistance level at 1.1506, above of which the highs in the region of 1.1539 and 1.1569 open, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a repeated decline to the support area of 1.1471, I recommend returning to long positions in euro only to rebound from a minimum of 1.1434.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers have coped with the morning task of returning to the support level of 1.1471, however, it will not be so easy to break through. Only good statistics on the US economy will once again return the EUR/USD to the level of 1.1471. A repeated test of which may lead to a larger euro sale with a yield of 1.1434, where I recommend today to take profits. If demand continues, it is best to open short positions after the formation of a false breakdown around 1.1506 or to rebound from a new high of 1.1539.

More details in the video forecast for January 31

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade returned to the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which may lead to the formation of a new upward wave in the euro.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a further decline in the euro, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1434. The upward trend is limited by the upper boundary in the area of 1.1530.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil shortage is canceled, experts say

Three years ago, the largest oil industry experts warned the markets about a large-scale reduction in investment and a growing drop in oil prices. Analysts argued that the world would face a shortage of black gold but pessimistic forecasts were not justified.

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Currently, leading market experts predict a few more years of oil abundance. According to Ed Morse, the authoritative researcher in the field of commodity markets of Citigroup Inc., the global black gold market may not be worried. There will be no oil supply crisis.

The most impressive collapse of the oil market in the past 25 years has forced a number of companies to cut costs dramatically. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), over the period from 2014 to 2016, investments in the oil and gas industry decreased by 40% to $ 350 billion. Experts consider this to be the most significant decline since the 1980s. Recall that in that period, oil prices plummeted from levels above $ 120 to $ 30.

In 2015, IEA analysts warned that the increase in oil supply in countries outside OPEC would dry up by 2020. Experts predicted a shortage of black gold in the amount of 10 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to the volumes mined earlier by Saudi Arabia. Concerns about the crisis were shared by almost all participants in the oil industry.

However, instead of a shortage of black gold, the world is faced with an abundance of supply. According to experts, the United States will produce about 12 million barrels per day in 2019. Previously, analysts said that the country will reach such a level only by 2042. In Russia, oil production is also at a record level while Iraq is close to historic highs. In Brazil, experts expect the most active growth in oil production over the past 15 years.

According to Bank of America Corp., three-quarters of non-shale projects will be profitable in five years, even at an oil price of $40 per barrel. At the same time, the risks to the market caused by the American sanctions against Venezuela and Iran have not disappeared anywhere. However, as the activity in the shale fields of the USA grows and the costs of oil producers decrease due to the use of new technologies, the threat of a deficit goes away.

The recent shale boom recorded in America gave signals of a slowdown in the market but fears were in vain due to increased production in the country. According to estimates by the consulting company Rystad Energy AS, the United States will produce more oil than both the world's leading oil producers, Russia, and Saudi Arabia by 2025.

According to most experts, the future is for shale oil and this process cannot be stopped. "It is possible that at some point its growth rates will slow down, but the trend will not turn around," said Paul Stevens, strategist at Chatham House.

The collapse of the oil market three years ago forced companies to increase their efficiency and significantly change the volume of production costs in the industry. Companies cutting costs learned how to produce oil at much lower prices. By optimizing the process, mining costs in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil fell by 50%. The companies used the previously created infrastructure, combining it with new technologies.

According to Ed Morse of Citigroup Inc., the current costs in the oil industry continue to decline. This trend is characteristic of the whole world. Experts pay attention to the active growth of black gold production. According to analysts, large oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries, are counting on an increase in oil prices, which is very beneficial for them. Therefore, it declares a shortage of supplies in the next three years.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro is up and dollar is down, the Fed is all a little whim

After the Fed promised to be careful with further increases in interest rates, the dollar weakened while the Australian dollar responded with an increase in this statement. The Fed left interest rates unchanged and abandoned its promises of "further gradual increases" in interest rates as expected. The dollar fell to a three-week low against other major currencies, and the yield of US Treasury bonds dropped significantly.

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Risky assets are growing on this news and the dollar is falling. The Fed may raise interest rates in June but at the moment, it doesn't matter what direction policy is moving in the medium term as the foreign exchange market participants still sell the dollar. The fall of the "American" benefited the euro, relegating concern about weaker growth in the eurozone to the background. The downside of the dovish policy of the Fed is the strengthening of the euro, and the ECB will certainly take note of this, which can also lead to actions to control this process. However, in buying euros, do not forget that the weakening of the economic impulse in the eurozone will put pressure on the currency during most of 2019 and may limit the growth of the euro in the medium term.

The Australian dollar grew by 0.3 percent to 0.7277 dollars after a jump on Wednesday immediately by 1.3 percent, which has every chance to continue the climb. The Swiss franc and yen added about 0.15 percent against the dollar. The Sterling, which is struggling with its own problems regarding Britain's withdrawal from the European Union, rose by 0.2 percent to $1.3157.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2019

USD/CHF has been correcting and consolidating at the edge of 0.9950 area for a few days in a row from where a break above the area is expected to lead to further bullish momentum. Yesterday FOMC meeting ended with the dovish policy update. The US central bank maintained the Federal Funds rate unchanged, thus leaving the market sentiment derived off the gains on the bullish side.

The US Federal Reserve recently sent the clearest signal that the cycle of monetary policy tightening is coming to an end while the pressure is rising on the economy as a result of a slowdown in the global economic growth. The US central bank left interest rates on hold and expressed the patient approach to every rate hike in the future. There are still chances of at least 2 rate hikes this year. FED Chairman Jerome Powell sounded quite dovish in the meeting while discussing tight financial conditions. The Funds Rate was left unchanged as expected at 2.50% which did not have much impact. The following press conference made the strongest impact, affecting USD growth along with the partial government shutdown recently. Tomorrow, US NFP report is going to be published which is going to include Average Hourly Earnings report which is expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.4%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to decrease to 165k from the previous figure of 312k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.9%.

On the other hand, recently Swiss Trade Balance report was published with a significant decrease to 1.90B from the previous figure of 4.75B which was expected to be at 4.55B. The downbeat economic report played a vital role injecting weakness for the Swiss Franc, but USD could not sustain it further. Moreover, KOF Economic Barometer report was published with a decrease to 95.0 from the previous figure of 96.4 which was expected to increase to 96.8 and Credit Suisse Economic Expectation report was also published with a significant decrease to -44.0 from the previous figure of -22.2. Tomorrow SECO Consumer Climate report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to -5 from the previous figure of -6 and Retail Sales are expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.5%.

Meanwhile, USD has been struggling for gains amid soft economic data and Fed's dovish rhetoric. On the other hand, CHF is struggling as well which enabled certain correction and indecision along the way. Ahead of US NFP and Switzerland's Retail Sales report tomorrow, the pair is likely to trade with higher volatility and sudden spikes. However, USD has a greater probability to take the lead in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading inside the Kumo Cloud resistance while also residing below 0.9950 with a daily close. The price is currently being held by dynamic level of 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line as support which is expected to carry it throughout the upward break which is expected to push the price higher towards 1.0050 resistance area in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 0.9550, 0.9700, 0.9850

RESISTANCE: 1.0050, 1.0130-50

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The EUR/USD is approaching the upper limit of the daily channels, Will it hold ? January 31, 2019

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times until Monday when the daily candlestick achieved a bullish closure above 1.1420.

Further bullish advancement should be expected towards the price level of 1.1550 where the upper limit of both depicted channels (RED & BLUE) is located.

Around 1.1550, there's a confluence of supply levels (upper limit of channels & previous historical bottoms) where bearish rejection as well as a valid SELL entry would be expected.

On the other hand, any bearish closure below 1.1420 terminates the current bullish movement (initiated on January 25) allowing another bearish visit towards 1.1350 and 1.1300.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for the current bullish pullback to pursue towards the price level of 1.1550 for a valid SELL entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.1420 and 1.1300. S/L to be located above 1.1600.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 31, 2019

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 17 when a bearish Engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.2999 (around the depicted downtrend line in RED).

This paused the bullish scenario for a while, allowing sometime for bearish correction towards 1.2830 where another bullish swing was initiated.

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 when the current bearish pullback was initiated around 1.3215.

A bearish engulfing daily candlestick was demonstrated by the end of Tuesday's consolidations. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish breakout above 1.3155. Thus, an intraday supply level is currently located around 1.3155.

The current bearish decline below 1.3150 will probably bring the GBP/USD pair into a deeper bearish correction that extends down to 1.3000 where bullish recovery should be anticipated.

On the other hand, for the bullish scenario to regain its validity, bullish persistence above the price level of 1.3150 (Recent Supply Level) should be re-established on a daily basis. This would enhance another bullish visit towards 1.3240.

Trade Recommendations:

Risky traders can wait for bearish price action around 1.3155 for a counter-trend SELL position. T/P level to be located around 1.3000. S/L to be placed above 3.3200.

Conservative traders should wait for bearish pullback towards 1.3000 (backside of the broken downtrend in RED) for a valid BUY entry.T/P levels to be located around 1.3055, 1.3155 and 1.3200. Any bearish H4 closure below 1.2950 invalidates this scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD / USD pair on January 31, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar is unstoppable. Taking advantage of the temporary weakness of the US dollar and similarly temporary and weak growth in commodity markets due to the political crisis in Venezuela), the "Australian" went above the upper limit of the lowering price channel. On both scales, the trend is clearly increasing in all indicators based on the daily and four-hour charts. We are waiting for the continuation of price growth to 0.7340 (maximum November 16) then to 0.7413 (minimum of May 9).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Bank of Japan reassured investors, stating that it has various tools to facilitate policies

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"The Bank of Japan can use various tools or their combinations to expand incentives, if necessary, but it will take into account the side effects of prolonged policy easing," said CB Governor Masayoshi Amamiya.

Masayoshi reminded investors that the Bank of Japan would consider increasing cash support only if the movement towards achieving the 2 percent inflation target is weak. At the same time, he tried to dispel assumptions that the Central Bank had run out of "ammunition" to deal with the next recession. Earlier, the Bank of Japan said that its set of tools for further easing included lowering interest rates and increasing asset purchases. The regulator has now announced that it will consider temporary factors that may affect inflation, such as a planned reduction in mobile phone fees and education fees, and will focus on the strength of the economy.

"At the moment, the best way to achieve the Bank of Japan's inflation target is to support the country's economy," said Masayoshi.

The Bank of Japan is in a dilemma. Years of printing "heavy" money did not lead to an increase in inflation, which forced the Bank of Japan to retain its bond purchase program, despite the fact that financial institutions receive poor profits from almost zero rates. Also to the problems of the Central Bank can add a slowdown in the global economy. Risks for the forecast are aggravated by the slowdown in China and trade tensions between China and the United States. The impact of trade tensions can spread not only through a direct impact on trade but also through the damage to companies' investment appetite and market sentiment.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for January 31, 2019

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R1: 1.3156

R2: 1.3197

R3: 1.3248

Pivot: 1.3105

S1: 1.3065

S2: 1.3013

S3: 1.2970

Trading recommendation: We closed half of the position at the first target 1.3151 but second half of the positions is still active with the target at 1.3211 (weekly high). Stop loss on second half of the position is moved on breakeven.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 1.0031, while minor resistance is seen at 0.9987. Support is found at the levels of 0.9884 and 0.9819. Also, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already set at the level of 0.9939. Equally important, the USD/CHF pair is still moving around the key level at 0.9939, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.9939. The pair rose from the level of 0.9939(this level of 0.9939 coincides with the double bottom) to the top around 0.9987. In consequence, the USD/CHF pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 0.9884. The level of 0.9884 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.9884 towards the target level of 0.9987. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9987, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9987 in order to reach the second target at 1.0031. On other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9819, then this scenario may be invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 31, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.3178. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3178 to the bottom around 1.3117. But the pair has rebounded from the bottom of 1.3117 to close at 1.3139. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3117, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.3178, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the USD/CAD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.3117, the market will decline further to 1.3068 in order to test the weekly support 2. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.3178 with the first target at 1.3068 and further to 1.3025. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 1.3246.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar did not like what Powell said

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As a result of the first meeting in the current year, the Federal Reserve System (FED), as expected, did not raise the rate, keeping it at the level of 2.25–2.5%.

Meanwhile, significant changes have occurred in the rhetoric of the regulator.

"Taking into account the situation in the economy and financial markets and restrained inflationary pressure, the committee will be patient in assessing what changes in the target range of the base rate may be needed in the future," follows the Fed statement.

The Central Bank also said that it is ready to use the entire arsenal of tools, including changing the size and composition of the balance sheet, if the development of the economic situation requires a softer monetary policy than just reducing the federal funds rate.

"In the current situation, a common-sense approach to risk management is in favor of waiting patiently for greater clarity. This is the position that benefited the monetary authorities in the past," said Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Thus, the Fed has signaled that it will not allow a repetition of the collapse that occurred in the stock market at the end of last year and hinted at a potentially long pause in the monetary tightening cycle.

Everything indicates that the Fed capitulated to the market and now the cessation of the collapse of the balance sheet seems more likely than a new rate increase.

However, it should be recognized that over the past six months, the Fed has conducted a good multi-pass operation, which relieved the tension on a number of issues.

Last year there were two serious problems, namely: too high-interest rates on bonds and a "bubble" in the stock market. The regulator was able to partially "blow off" this "bubble", as well as lower the yield of treasuries. In addition, the Central Bank decided one of the main tasks of the government - reduced the burden on the budget in the form of interest payments, which last year was almost unbearable due to an increase in interest rates. The Fed's "tricky" plan is likely to clear Donald Trump's road by a second term.

As for the US currency, it has fallen in price on a broad front, after the results of the next Fed meeting became known. Thus, the EUR / USD pair rose to the level of 1.15, USD / JPY dropped below the level of 109. The dollar index dipped almost 0.5%.

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Experts Goldman Sachs believe that, despite the "bearish" consensus forecast of the market, in the near future the dollar is unlikely to fall dramatically.

"The potential for building up short positions on the" American "remains limited, as a further appreciation of the euro or yuan will be needed, while investors have serious concerns about the macroeconomic forecast for both currencies," they said.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 01/31/2019

No wonder investors were skeptical about the refinancing rate of the Federal Reserve System, which was reflected in the almost absent demand for interest rate futures. The Federal Commission for open market operations, from which specifics were expected regarding the timing of the refinancing rate increase, as well as the macroeconomic conditions necessary for holding such events, presented an unexpected surprise. Not only did nobody hear any answers to the questions posed, but also Jerome Powell said that if necessary, the Federal Reserve System would be able to mitigate the parameters of monetary policy by reducing the monthly amount of assets repurchased. The whole thing is not only that the Federal Reserve in a fairly short period of time from a planned tightening of monetary policy proceeds to its easing, but the fact that such a reversal is possible only in one case. The Fed knows that the state of affairs in the economy is not the best, and there are all prerequisites for its deterioration. So it is not surprising that after the statements of the head of the Federal Reserve System, the single European currency cheerfully went up.

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The pound did not grow so briskly, as it was constrained by the statements of European officials, who forced all believers to grieve in the successful completion of Brexit. British parliamentarians have already sent Theresa May to Brussels for a new agreement, and even packed her bags. There they once again stated that the United Kingdom will not receive any new agreement in return for the existing one. They hinted that the British Parliament can adopt as many resolutions as they like, but it still will not change anything since they will not calm down in Europe until British companies leave the European market.

After such an impressive jump, which occurred yesterday evening, it is worth waiting for a rollback, and only a reason is needed. Such a reason could be preliminary data on Europe's GDP for the fourth quarter, which should show a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.2%. Of course, the Fed made it clear that it was waiting for the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation in the United States, but so far this deterioration has not yet come. But in Europe, it happens right before our eyes.

The euro/dollar currency pair, after a short-term stagnation, nevertheless managed to break out and draw a pulsed candle, against an informational background. It is likely to assume that after such a move there will be a logical pullback of 1.1480-1.1460.

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The currency pair pound/dollar showed less volatility, but still logical upward. It is likely to assume that, in the values of 1.3150-1.3170, there may be stagnation with a reversal.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. January 31st. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May goes to Brussels again

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 6.7907

The currency pair GBP / USD on Thursday, January 31, is trying to resume an upward movement. However, the information received from the Fed meeting yesterday did not affect the movement of the pair too much, which is very surprising. The pound sterling has strengthened quite strongly in recent weeks, from our point of view, rather unfoundedly, so now traders are already seriously thinking over long positions. This is precisely the reason for the weak reaction to the fed pigeon rhetoric. It seems that traders are preparing for new serious sales of the pair, as the question on Brexit is still not resolved, Theresa May will have new negotiations with EU leaders, and the fact that the parties do not want a "tough" Brexit does not guarantee its absence in the future. By the way, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has already stated that the decision of the British Parliament increases the chances of just an uncontrollable version of Brexit. French President Emmanuel Macron said that the current version of the Brexit agreement is the best possible and is not subject to revision. In general, Theresa May, who is already going to Brussels for new negotiations, will be extremely difficult to convince Europe of new concessions. The amendment adopted by the British Parliament, prohibiting withdrawal from the EU without an "agreement", means nothing in fact since if there is no agreement, there will be no "soft" Brexit.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD has completed the correction. Thus, long positions with targets at 1.3123 and 1.3184 are now relevant, however, with long positions, we need to be careful now as the downtrend may begin.

Sell orders are recommended to open when the pair closes below the moving average line with the first target of 1.3000. In this case, the tool can proceed with the formation of a new downtrend.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. January 31st. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The Fed may never raise the rate in 2019

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 147.2197

Well, the Fed meeting was left behind, and the European currency strengthened quite strongly last night and tonight thanks to the "dovish" Fed rhetoric. First, the key rate remained unchanged at 2.5%. In principle, it was expected. Secondly, from the accompanying statement, the phrase about a systematic increase in the rate was lost. Instead, the Fed is now going to assess the state of the economy, and then make a decision on tightening monetary policy. There were words that "the need for a rate hike has weakened." Third, Jerome Powell at the press conference noted a decrease in inflationary pressure. All this was rightly regarded by the market as pigeon rhetoric. This year, based on this information, there may not be a single rate increase, contrary to the Fed's earlier plans for two increases. As a result, Euro currency grew by almost 100 points and thus kept the upward movement. From a technical point of view, everything remains the same. On Thursday, January 31, the States are scheduled to publish reports on personal income and expenses of the population. In the European Union, today released a preliminary value of GDP for the fourth quarter and the unemployment rate for December.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1475

S2 - 1.1414

S3 - 1.1353

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1536

R2 - 1.1597

R3 - 1.1658

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD has resumed its upward movement. Thus, now remain relevant long positions with a target of 1.1536. A 1-2 color bar in blue with Heikin Ashi indicator will signal a manual reduction of long positions.

Sell positions are recommended to be considered if traders overcome a moving average line with a target of 1.1353. It seems that the euro remains in a wide and inaccurate side channel, limited to 1.1290 and 1.1530.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD: The Federal Reserve has completely changed the nature of its statements and forecasts for this year.

The US dollar fell against a number of world currencies yesterday after the Federal Reserve revised its monetary policy, making a number of significant changes in its statement.

According to the data, the Fed left the range of interest rates on federal funds unchanged between 2.25% and 2.50%. The Fed also left the discount rate at 3.00%. This decision was taken by the Open Market Operations Committee with a vote of 10 to 0.

It is clear from the statements that now the Fed will be patient in making decisions about interest rates in the future, and this patience is explained by global economic and financial factors, as well as restrained inflationary pressure.

It should be noted that the Fed has removed from its statement the prospect of further gradual rate increases, saying it is ready to correct the process of normalizing the balance in the light of economic and financial events.

The speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman put even more pressure on the US dollar.

Jerome Powell said that although the US economy is in good shape, the growth of some other major economies has slowed, which could affect overall global GDP growth.

Powell expects the economy to grow at a slower, but still steady pace, but current financial conditions have become less favorable for economic growth.

With regard to interest rates, then, according to the Fed chairman, you must take a patient and wait-and-see attitude. In this regard, the process of reducing the balance of the Fed will end earlier with a higher volume of assets, which also indicates a lack of interest in the committee to further increase interest rates this year.

The next change in interest rates will depend entirely on the economic data, and the length of the patience period is entirely related to the incoming economic data.

If at the end of last year, the Fed chairman clearly stated at least two interest rate increases this year, then already during yesterday's meeting, it became clear that the committee could completely refuse to increase, and it will depend entirely on macroeconomic statistics and inflation.

Yesterday, data on the number of jobs in the US private sector was also released, which increased in January 2019.

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According to the Automatic Data Processing Inc. report. and Moody's Analytics, the number of jobs increased by 213,000, while economists had forecast an increase in the number of jobs in the private sector by 183,000.

The number of signed contracts for the sale of housing in December decreased due to high loans and an expensive market. According to the National Association of Realtors, the index of signed contracts on the sale of housing in the secondary market in December decreased by 2.2% compared with the previous month and amounted to 99.0 points. Economists had expected the index to show a 0.5% increase in December.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for January 31. Fed helped Euro currency

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD reversed in favor of the EU currency and resumed the growth process towards a correctional level of 50.0% - 1.1517. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight drop towards the level of 38.2% - 1.1446. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the chances of continued growth in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.1587.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair continues to grow in the direction of the Fibo correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. The end of the pair on January 31 of the level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight decline towards the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today. Closing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of further growth.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the currency pair EUR / USD will be possible with the goal of 1.1587 if the pair closes above 50.0%, and a Stop Loss order under 1.1517.

Sales of the currency pair EUR / USD can be carried out with the target of 1.1446 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 50.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1517.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for January 31, 2019

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Gold continues to rally as expected. Our bullish positions looks very stable and we expect the test of the $1.340.00 (major target). Buyers are in total control and doing a good job towards the median Pitchfork line ($1.340.00) of the larger channel. According to the daily chart, Gold is making higher highs and higher lows which is a sign that buyers are in total control. There are no signs of a reversal yet and you should only watch for the upside.

R1: $1,319.55

R2: $1,329.40

R3: $1,334.75

Pivot: $1,313.00

S1: $1,304.45

S2: $1,298.00

S3: $1,288.90

Trading recommendation: We are still long Gold from $1,285 and $1,300.00. Our stop loss orders are on both positions set at $1,309.0. Our main target is $1,340.00 (median line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for January 31. Bullish divergence on the side of the pound sterling

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart completed closing above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.3094 after the formation of bullish divergence in the CCI indicator. As a result, on January 31, the growth process of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.3300. Fixing quotes under the correction level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US currency and expect a slight drop in the direction of the correctional level of 61.8% - 1.2969.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair performed a reversal in favor of the currency of England and began to grow in the direction of the correction level of 200.0% - 1.3187 after the formation of the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 200.0% will work in favor of the US dollar and a slight decline in the direction of the level of 161.8% - 1.3045. The closing of quotations above the Fibo level of 200.0% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the correction level of 261.8% - 1.3418.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from December 31, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair GBP / USD can be made with the target of 1.3187 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 161.8%, as bullish divergence has formed (hourly chart).

Sales of the currency pair GBP / USD can be carried out with the target of 1.3045 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 200.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.3187 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What did the Fed say on 01/31/2019?

The Fed kept rates at 2.25 - 2.5% and gave the following comment:

The Fed has noted a significant increase in economic activity and a further improvement in the labor market situation due to the average growth of jobs in recent months and the remaining low unemployment rate.

The Fed states that over the period between commission meetings, family expenses continued to increase substantially, while the expansion of investments by business structures slowed compared with more forced rates earlier last year.

The Fed still assesses long-term inflation expectations as stable, despite the fact that the compensatory effect of market-based measures on inflation has declined in recent months. At the same time, calculated on a 12-month basis, general inflation and core inflation, which do not take into account energy and food prices, remain close to 2%.

The Fed is committed, in accordance with its authority, to promote maximum employment and price stability. To ensure the implementation of these tasks, the Fed decided to keep the target interest rate range for federal funds at 2.25% -2.50%. The Fed continues to view the sustainable expansion of economic activity, strengthening the labor market and inflation, close to the symmetrical 2% target level designated by the Fed, as the most likely trends. Given the global economic and financial processes and restrained inflationary pressure, the Fed will be patient to determine the next steps to regulate the target interest rate range for federal funds that will contribute to the desired results.

In determining the timing and scale of the future regulation of the target interest rate range for federal funds, the Fed will be guided by both achieved and expected economic progress in relation to its goals of maximum employment and symmetrical inflation at 2%. This approach will be based on a wide range of information, including parameters of labor market conditions, indicators of inflationary pressure and inflation expectations, financial and international events.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for January 31, 2019

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Bitcoin has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $3.390. Our bearish view from yesterday is still active. Since the key support cluster at $3.420 is broken and successfully retested, we expect downward continuation. I also found a successful breakout of the mini upward Pitchfork channel, which is another sign of underlying weakness. Most recently, there is the breakout of the bearish flag, which is good sign of continuation. The short-mid term trend is bearish and you should go with the direction of the overall trend.

R1: $3.472

R2: $3.510

R3: $3.560

Pivot: $3.392

S1: $3.385

S2: $3.335

S3: $3.298

Trading recommendation: We are still short BTC/USD from $3.392 and with the target at $3.107. Protective stop is placed at the price of $3.550

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD on January 31, 2019

EUR / USD

The results of the Fed meeting yesterday were "aggressively soft." The regulator turned out to be much darker in economic expectations and is now ready, as Powell said, to use "the complete set of its instruments, including changing the size and composition of the asset portfolio." But somewhere we were right, trade wars put pressure on the Fed, now it will be harder for financial institutions to keep the dollar rate on long-term strengthening. This means that the strengthening of the dollar will be at a slower rate. Geopolitical tension is already becoming a permanent backdrop for financial markets, and at the center of this tension is the US.

At the moment, we see that the price breaks through the target level of 1.1500. On the H4 graph, the Marlin oscillator signal line turned up from the zero lines. We are waiting for the euro at the next target level of 1.1570, this is the maximum on January 10 and the minimum on July 19 of last year.

Upon reaching the target level, the price may turn down as already today, sales of new homes in the US are expected to rise from 544 thousand to 569 thousand in November, and tomorrow labor data may be better than forecast, as Jerome Powell hinted yesterday's performance. In any case, the current situation of employment of the Fed is completely satisfied.

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The Fed turned 180 degrees

The expected, but somehow still unexpected result of the Fed meeting collapsed the US dollar rate on Wednesday. The main outcome of the meeting, as well as the speech of its head, J. Powell, was the actual reversal of the prospects for monetary policy.

Earlier, amid signals of a slowdown in US economic growth, as well as the global economy, the heads of federal banks and Powell began signaling markets earlier this year that the regulator may revise its plans for the number of interest rate increases. This led to an increase in optimism among investors and led to an increase in their interest in risky assets. On this wave of "understatement", there was still an element of uncertainty, which held back, on the one hand, the increased demand for risky assets, and on the other, the weakening of the US dollar.

On Wednesday, the regulator dropped a veil of uncertainty, removing from the communique after meeting the phrase about the need for "further gradual increase in interest rates." In fact, the Central Bank made it clear that the likelihood of higher interest rates in the current year has decreased significantly and will depend entirely on the dynamics of the country's economy and inflationary pressure. In turn, do not give grounds to hope that changes can occur in the near foreseeable future.

Given such a sharp turn in the prospects for the monetary policy of the American regulator, one can say that the dollar will continue to lose its position in the foreign exchange markets. In our opinion, this may lead to the fact that the ICE dollar index may fall in the future to a local minimum of the beginning of 2018. Additional pressure on it will also provide a possible cessation of the reduction in the balance of the Fed. In his speech on Wednesday after the meeting, J. Powell made it clear that this process may stop. If this is done, then the dollar will undoubtedly reach the minimum values a year ago.

In the near future, most likely, the dollar will decline. Its fall will be most noticeable in relation to the currencies of countries with developing economies, as well as the currencies of the commodity group. Here, negotiations between the US and China on trade will play an important role. They are expected to conclude an agreement today, which can alleviate tensions between Washington and Beijing and if not contribute to restoring global economic growth, then at least prevent its decline.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is above the level of 1.1480 in the wake of the outcome of the Fed meeting on monetary policy. If it manages to stay above this level, it can continue to grow. We consider it possible to purchase a pair with a target of 1.1565.

The currency pair AUD / USD is above the level of 0.7235. Fixing above this mark will lead to its growth to 0.7335.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on January 31

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we continue to monitor the rising structure of January 24 and we expect the continuation of the movement after the breakdown of 1.1514. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we may continue to move up after a breakdown of 1.3197 - 1.3245. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price forms a local structure of January 28. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect further downward movement after the breakdown of 108.75. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, we expect further uptrend after the breakdown of 125.15. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price is in correction and the range of 142.69 - 142.12 is the key support for the top, and the continuation of the main trend is possible after the breakdown of 144.00.

Forecast for January 31:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1594, 1.1548, 1.1514, 1.1464, 1.1446, 1.1415 and 1.1387. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure from January 24. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1514 - 1.1548 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.1594, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1464 - 1.1446 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1415 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.1387.

The main trend is the upward structure of January 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1514 Take profit: 1.1546

Buy 1.1550 Take profit: 1.1592

Sell: 1.1464 Take profit: 1.1446

Sell: 1.1444 Take profit: 1.1415

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3431, 1.3350, 1.3245, 1.3197, 1.3118, 1.3058 and 1.2981. Here, we continue to monitor the rising structure of January 15. At the moment, the price is in correction. An upward movement is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3197 - 1.3245. In this case, the target is 1.3350, and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3431, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.3118 - 1.3058 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.2981 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of January 15, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3245 Take profit: 1.3350

Buy: 1.3353 Take profit: 1.3430

Sell: 1.3118 Take profit: 1.3060

Sell: 1.3055 Take profit: 1.2984

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0065, 1.0034, 0.9984, 0.9930, 0.9906, 0.9874 and 0.9847. Here, the price forms a local structure for the top of January 28. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9984. In this case, the target is 1.0034. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0065, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9930 - 0.9906 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9874 and this level is the key support for the ascending structure. Its breakdown will lead to the movement to the level of 0.9847.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 10, the local structure of January 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9986 Take profit: 1.0032

Buy: 1.0035 Take profit: 1.0065

Sell: 0.9904 Take profit: 0.9880

Sell: 0.9872 Take profit: 0.9848

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 109.50, 109.24, 109.08, 108.75, 108.58, 108.32 and 108.14. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward structure from January 25. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 108.75 - 108.58 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 108.32. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 108.14, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 109.08 - 109.24 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 109.50 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of January 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.08 Take profit: 109.22

Buy: 109.26 Take profit: 109.50

Sell: 108.75 Take profit: 108.60

Sell: 108.56 Take profit: 108.32

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3244, 1.3190, 1.3163, 1.3124, 1.3098, 1.3074 and 1.3026. Here, we determine the subsequent goals from the downward structure on January 24th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3124. In this case, the target is 1.3098 and in the range of 1.3098 - 1.3074 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3074, the movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 1.3072.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3163 - 1.3190 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the goal is 1.3244 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of January 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3163 Take profit: 1.3190

Buy: 1.3195 Take profit: 1.3242

Sell: 1.3124 Take profit: 1.3098

Sell: 1.3072 Take profit: 1.3030

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7359, 0.7336, 0.7296, 0.7267, 0.7225, 0.7208 and 0.7184. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 25. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7267. In this case, the target is 0.7296 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7296 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7336. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.7359, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7225 - 0.7208 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7184 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7268 Take profit: 0.7294

Buy: 0.7298 Take profit: 0.7336

Sell: 0.7225 Take profit: 0.7208

Sell: 0.7206 Take profit: 0.7184

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 124.54, 124.23, 123.74 and 123.23. Here, we are following the formation of the local ascending structure from January 24th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 125.80 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 124.54 - 124.23 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 123.74 and the breakdown of which will allow us to expect a movement to the level of 123.23, up to this level, we expect the initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 124.54 Take profit: 124.25

Sell: 124.20 Take profit: 123.85

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 146.68, 145.74, 144.86, 144.00, 142.69, 142.12 and 141.37. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure from January 15. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.00. In this case, the first target is 144.86 and the breakdown of which will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 145.74. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 146.68, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 142.69 - 142.12 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 141.37 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.00 Take profit: 144.80

Buy: 144.88 Take profit: 145.74

Sell: 142.69 Take profit: 142.14

Sell: 142.10 Take profit: 141.40

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com