Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 29, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD failed to build on the break above 1.5441 and topped out already at 1.5450 indicating that wave [iv] still is unfolding. More corrective downside pressure close to 1.5230 still should be expected before wave [v] will be ready to take over, for a rally towards 1.5764.

R3: 1.5780

R2: 1.5667

R1: 1.5554

Pivot: 1.5365

S1: 1.5275

S2: 1.5230

S1: 1.5170

Trading recommendation:

Our stop is at 1.5360 for a nice profit. We will re-buy EUR at 1.5235 or upon a break above 1.5456.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 29, 2017

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Wave summary:

Once again the pair failed to break above important short-term resistance seen near 120.34. This resistance needs to be cleared to confirm that wave ii has completed and wave iii higher is developing for a rally to above 122.88.

Support is now seen near 119.55 and will ideally be able to protect the downside for the next attempt to break above 120.34.

R3: 121.84

R2: 120.75

R1: 120.39

Pivot: 120.00

S1: 119.77

S2: 119.55

S3: 119.28

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 119.65 with stop placed at 119.20. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 120.39 and use the same stop at 119.20.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still moving around the zone of 0.7075 (major resistance). The pair has already formed minor resistance at 0.7004 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 0.7075 because it represents the weekly resistance 1 (history will repeat itself again at 0.7075). So, major resistance is seen at 0.7075, while immediate support is found at 0.6946. If the pair closes below the price of 0.6946, the NZD/USD pair may resume its movement to 0.6850 to test the daily support 2. The NZD/USD pair is expected to trade between the levels of 0.7004 and 0.6850. The RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market. The current price is also below the moving average 100. As a result, sell trades are recommended below the double top of 0.7004 with targets at 0.6869 and 0.6850. However, stop loss should always be taken into account; accordingly, it will be useful to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 0.7075. Besides, the pair will probably decline because the downward trend is still strong.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9847. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.9847 to a top around 0.9936. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9958 followed by 0.9993, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9881 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9924 and 0.9993; so we expect a range of 69 pips in coming hours. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.9993, we should see the pair climbing towards the major resistance (1.0042) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9924 with the first target at 0.9958 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.9993. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.0042 is a good place to take profit. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9881, a further decline to 0.9812 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Global macro overview for 29/03/2017

Global macro overview for 29/03/2017:

The speeches from various FED policymakers have hit the news streams of financial markets. In his recent comments regarding the future Federal Reserve interest rates policy, FED Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer said, that two more interest rate hikes in 2017 should be about right. According to Fischer, the overall risks are also more or less balanced towards more or fewer rate hikes while the Dollar hasn't continued to strengthen. The similar hawkish tone was clearly indicated by Kansas City Fed President Esther George as she stated that it will be important to continue the process of gradually raising interest rates in order not to shock the US economy. The Dallas FED president Robert Kaplan remarks were not that much hawkish as he said that FED should be taking steps to raise rates gradually and cautiously. Chairperson Janet Yellen made no references to current economic trends or monetary policy in her speech on Tuesday. In conclusion, the most of the speeches were pretty hawkish in their tone, so the market participants should still be expecting at least two more interest rate hikes this year.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the hawkish comments the bulls camp have managed to bounce from the oversold levels, but so far the price did not test the important technical resistance at the level of 11.57. Only a clear break out above this level will open the road towards the next technical resistance at the level of 112. 88. The immediate support is seen at the level of 110.84.

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Global macro overview for 29/03/2017

Global macro overview for 29/03/2017:

The CB Consumer Confidence data had beaten the market expectations. The number was released at the level of 125.6 points, which was way better than last month's 116.1 points and better than anticipated number of 113.9 points, the highest reading since December 2000. Consumers' assessment of both current business and labor market conditions improved sharply in March. They also anticipated an increase in their incomes. The possible reason behind this surge in optimism in the wake of Donald Trump's victory in last November's presidential election is his presidential campaign promises. The Trump administration has pledged to pursue business-friendly policies, including tax cuts and deregulation. In conclusion, the sentiment among the US households is very positive, but it might change if the Trump administration will fail to deliver what they promised.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the lower low was made at the level of 98.86, the market rallied a little from the oversold levels and now it trading just below the psychological resistance at the level of 100.00. This is very important level for bulls, because once violated, it opens the road towards the weekend gap between the levels of 100.88 - 101.43 after the FED interest rate decision was made. The next support for the price is seen at the level of 99.53.

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Trading plan for 29/03/2017

Trading plan for 29/03/2017:

Today's trading in the Dollar is calm after yesterday's rebound, except for the Pound that is feeling nervous about the formal start of the Brexit procedure. The stock market in the USA has little change as well. The stock market in Asia is without direction today. Shanghai Composite is up 0.2%, but Nikkei loses 0.1%.

Wednesday the 29th of March will be all about Brexit, but the Crude Oil inventories and various FED policymakers speeches will definitely gain some attention from the market participants.

GBP/USD analysis for 29/03/2017:

It is not that simple to predict the possible behavior of any of the Pound pair today and the reason behind it is, of course, the start of the Brexit procedure. There are three ways of trading the Brexit even today. The first way is to sell the pound before the event in anticipation of a profit, and if you get a big profit, you can hold the position for the whole event believing that the movement will be higher for the pair GBP/USD. The other way is to wait until the market starts the initial move and buy the GBP/USD pair for a brief return, as some traders and economists do not agree that the final exit will be after 18 months. The third option is to wait a little longer, an hour or two, giving the market a breath and then follow the trend that will come out as it will likely continue through the New York and Asian sessions. It is important to remember that the GBP/USD pair may be a very violate pair after the event on the move.

Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the Brexit event is announced. There are two critical support and resistance zones. The resistance zone is between the levels of 1.2705 - 1.2772 and the support zone is between the levels of 1.1985 - 1.2046. There is a high possibility that both of these zones will be violated today, so cautious trading is recommended.

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Crude Oil analysis for 29/03/2017:

Crude oil remains stronger with WTI's price at $48.6 in response to reports from Libya about halting supplies of oil fields in the Sahara. OPEC leaks on the possible extension of the reduction contract also help stabilize the market. The API report fell to +1.9 million barrels, but due to similar DOE forecasts, the market remained neutral. Today's news release at 02:30 pm GMT regarding the crude oil inventories (1,200k expected vs. 4,954k before) might trigger more volatility on this market.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H1 time frame. After a quadruple bottom, the market rallied towards the next technical resistance at the level of $48.72 and managed to violate it. Nevertheless, the current market conditions look overbought and the growing bearish divergence indicated a temporary pullback towards the level of $48.47 or $48.27. When the pullback is completed, the intraday uptrend should resume.

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Market snapshot: USD/CAD Double Top in play?

The USD/CAD price is trading just below the gray rectangle resistance zone after failed second attempt to break out above it. The dashed black trend line had been tested once, so any violation of it will open the road for bears to test the next technical support at the level of 1.3302 or even 1.3275. On the other hand, break out above the resistance zone will open the road for bulls to test the recent swing highs around the level of 1.3537.

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EUR/USD fundamental analysis for March 28, 2017

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EUR/USD fundamental analysis for March 28, 2017

Technical analysis of USDX for March 29, 2017

The Dollar index bounced as we were expecting since the divergence signals were increasing. The Dollar index has bounced off important support at 99-98.80 area and is trying to break above the first important resistance levels. I believe the most probable outcome will be a lower high and another bearish reversal.

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The Dollar index has reversed and is testing short-term Ichimoku cloud resistance at 99.90. Support is at 99.40. This upward move could continue towards 101 if the sequence of higher highs and higher lows continues in the 4-hour chart.

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Black line - neckline support

Blue line -trend line resistance

Green line -long-term trend line support

The Dollar index owed us a bounce from oversold levels and delivered it yesterday despite the weakness it showed on Monday. As I said in a previous post, weekly candles are not shaped on Monday and that is why we need to be patient with the weekly close. I expect the Dollar index to make a lower high relative to the 102.30 and then reverse lower towards 98 or even 97.

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Technical analysis of gold for March 29, 2017

Gold has pulled back towards $1,240 as expected after breaking below and out of the bullish short-term channel. Long-term trend remains bullish and I continue to expect еру price to move towards $1,300-$1,310.

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Blue lines - bullish channel (broken)

Red lines - bearish channel

Short-term resistance is at $1,257 and the next is at $1,263, at the February's high. Support is at $1,240 in the 4-hour chart by the Ichimoku cloud. The price could drift lower towards $1,240 but overall I continue to see these pullbacks as buying opportunity for Gold.

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Black line - long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

The weekly candle has stopped right below the February high. This is important weekly resistance. Breaking above it will open the way for a move towards the black downward sloping resistance trend line at $1,300-$1,310. Critical support remains at $1,194. If it is broken, the bullish scenario will be in danger as we will have a lot of chances of testing long-term support trend line at $1,150-60.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 29, 2017

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The NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred.

A bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (the key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair.

Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed further advance toward 0.7250-0.7350 (Sell-Zone) where the bearish price action was expected.

Bearish persistence below 0.7250 allowed further decline toward 0.7100 then 0.6960 which failed to provide enough support for the pair.

That is why further bearish fall was expected toward 0.6860 (the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone) where a bullish position was suggested in previous articles.

Recently, the bullish breakout above the depicted key level (0.6960) was achieved. That is why any bearish pullback toward 0.6960 should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible BUY entry.

On the other hand, the price level of 0.7100 remains a significant key level to be watched for bearish price action if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.7040.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 29, 2017

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Since April 2016, the USD/CAD pair has been trending upward within the depicted ascending channel.

In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recently established top).

During the bearish pullback, the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) failed to provide enough support to the pair.

This allowed further bearish movement toward the price level of 1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where a valid BUY entry was offered in February 2017.

Last week, the bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) enhanced further advance toward 1.3440 and 1.3530.

The next bullish target would be located around 1.3800 (upper limit of the depicted channel) if the pair maintains upside trading above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) which stands as a prominent support level.

On the other hand, if the USD/CAD pair moves below 1.3300, it may become trapped again within the depicted consolidation range (1.3300-1.2970).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Mar 29, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German Import Prices m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, Pending Home Sales m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0869.

Strong Resistance:1.0863.

Original Resistance: 1.0852.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0841.

Target Inner Area: 1.0816.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0791.

Original Support: 1.0780.

Strong Support: 1.0769.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0763.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Mar 29, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories, and Pending Home Sales m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.71.

Resistance. 2: 111.49.

Resistance. 1: 111.27.

Support. 1: 111.00.

Support. 2: 110.78.

Support. 3: 110.56.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 29, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD opened this week with a minor gap-up. Price went upwards in conjunction with the extant bullish outlook, testing the resistance line at 1.0900, and then pulling back. It is possible that price would rally from here; although a movement below the support line at 1.0650 would mean the end of the current bullish outlook.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF went sideways on Monday and then rallied on Tuesday. Although that rally was not significant enough to render the current bearish bias invalid. The EMA 11 remains below the EMA 56 (though the Williams' % Range period 20 is heading into the overbought region, which would harbinger a stall in the current rally). Whatever happens, today would determine the next direction in the market.

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GBP/USD: The Cable trudged upwards and tested the distribution territory at 1.2600 and pulled back. The pullback has not been strong enough to override the extent bullish outlook on the market: unless the price goes below the accumulation territories at 1.2400 and 1.2350. From this point, there is a possibility that price could try to recover the recent short-term losses.

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USD/JPY: This pair consolidated on Monday and then bounced upwards on Tuesday. There remains a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and unless the price goes upwards by at least, 200 pips, there would not be a threat to the extent bearish bias. The bearish bias would hold until there is a strong rally in the market.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY has consolidated so far this week – in the context of a downtrend. There would soon be some momentum in the market, and while the demand zones at 120.00 and 119.50 could be tested, it is expected that there would be some rally before the end of the week.

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Daily analysis of USDX for March 29, 2017

The index recovered during yesterday's session, as it found strong support around 99.00. Currently, USDX is challenging the 200 SMA at H1 chart close to the 100.00 psychological area. If it manages to break above that zone, then it's likely to see a rally towards 100.36 in a first degree. MACD indicator is reaching the positive territory, calling for more bullish moves in the short-term.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.80 / 100.36

H1 chart's support levels: 98.98 / 98.29

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 98.98, take profit is at 98.29 and stop loss is at 99.66.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 29, 2017

The pair managed to pull back strongly during Tuesday's session and now it's finding dynamic support at the 200 SMA (H1 chart). Further rebounds are expected and it should help to put the Cable on the bullish path towards 1.2600. However, today the UK PM Theresa May is expected to trigger Article 50 of Brexit and it can favor more weakness. MACD indicator is in the negative territory, supporting that scenario.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2522 / 1.2598

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2420 / 1.2333

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2522, take profit is at 1.2598 and stop loss is at 1.2447.

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Daily Video Technical Analysis | USD/JPY | 28th March 2017

We take a nice detailed look at the USD/JPY pair and see if there are any trading opportunities for us to make some juicy pips!

We combine the art of Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci extensions, Support & Resistance along with Stochastic and RSI to determine the best entry, stop loss and profit targets.

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Daily Video Technical Analysis | AUD/JPY | 28th March 2017

We take a nice detailed look at the AUD/JPY pair and see if there are any trading opportunities for us to make some juicy pips!

We combine the art of Fibonacci retracements, Fibonacci extensions, and Support & Resistance along with Stochastic and RSI to determine the best entry, stop loss and profit targets.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for March 28, 2017

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Overview

The EUR/JPY pair confirmed the continuation of the bullish bias domination by forming new bullish wave, to move away from the extension of the support at 119.50. Note that surpassing the moving average 55 is important for getting rid of the negative pressures, which opens the way towards recording the targets that located at 121.60 reaching to 122.50 level in the medium term. By the above image, we notice forming new bullish wave by stochastic to confirm getting rid of the negative pressure, which provides good chance for gathering the positive momentum, and that allows it to achieve the waited targets. The expected trading range for today is between 119.50 and 121.60.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for March 28, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair kept its negative stability below 139.30 level, which forms the extension of the initial resistance that appears in the above image. Therefore, we will keep waiting until gathering strong negative momentum that allows it to begin recording the negative targets that begin at 137.75 reaching to 136.60 in the medium period. The stability of the moving average 55 above the current trading confirms the continuation of the negativity, which agrees with stochastic attempt to surpass the overbought level that provides the required negative momentum for achieving the waited targets. The expected trading range for today is between 139.30 and 137.75.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for March 28, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair provided some positive trading yesterday to retest the previously broken 110.85 level and bounces lower from there. That supports the chances for resuming the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions. Notice that stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly to reach the overbought levels. At the same time the negative effect of the double top pattern remains valid. Therefore, these factors support the continuation of the main bearish trend and its next main target is located at 109.00. Be aware that breaching 111.62 level will stop the current negative pressure and pushes the price to test 112.45 level before any new attempt to decline. The expected trading range for today is between 109.50 support and 111.20 resistance.

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USD/JPY fundamental analysis for March 28, 2017

USD/JPY has been through long-term non-volatile bearish structure since the bounce off 114.50 resistance area and the bias is still said to be continuing downwards. Today USD had CB Consumer Confidence report which was published at 125.6. It was expected to be at 113.9. At the same time Goods Trade Balance was also positive at -64.8B which was expected to be at -66.6B and the Richmond Manufacturing Index was also positive at 22 which was expected to be at 16. Having several positive reports today, USD failed to dominate JPY whereas JPY did not have any crucial economic event to push the currency against USD. An upcoming event for USD is FOMC Member Kaplan's speech today which is expected to provide some volatility in the market but JPY seems to gain more despite any USD economic events.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is just above the key level of 110.10-00 area and stalling above it. If any daily close below 110.00 is observed, then we are expecting a long downward run towards 105.50 support level without any corrective barriers. On the other hand, if the price manages to push up above 111.50 with a daily close we will change our bearish bias to bullish and target 114.50 as the upward resistance target.

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