Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite corrective and volatile while residing inside the price range between 127.50 to 129.50. EUR is currently quite indecisive amid several important factors like ECB monetary policy and fiscal target achievement. On the other hand, amid upbeat economic reports JPY led to further correction.

EUR has been sensitive to political developments. EUR has been hurt by the unsettled budget crisis in Italy which is expected to cause obstacles to further economic growth in the eurozone as Italy rejects co-operation with EU authorities. Today ECOFIN meeting is being held which has already had a negative impact on the currency growth so far which is expected to lead to further EUR weakness in the coming days. Ahead of ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts report to be published on Thursday, EUR is expected to struggle further in the coming days. Another headwind is a Consumer Confidence reports which is expected to reveal the unchanged index at -3.

On the JPY side, recently Japan's Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to -0.30T from the previous figure of -0.14T which was expected to be at -0.48T, but having better than expected result provided a certain gain. More gains are to follow if the upcoming economic reports like All Industrial Activity and National Core CPI come in better than expected.

In the meantime, JPY found solid support from the economic reports whereas EUR still has to assert strength to gain the required momentum and push impulsively in the coming days. Though both currencies are currently quite indecisive, JPY has a greater chance to gain momentum because EUR is set to struggle further.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 128.50 area after certain indecision daily candles. The price is currently being held by the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan, Kijun, and Kumo Cloud as resistance which is expected to push the price lower towards 127.50 and later towards 125.50 area in the future. As the price remains below 129.50, as per preceding trend the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 125.50, 127.50, 128.50

RESISTANCE: 129.50, 131.00, 132.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on November 20. The pound remains in the side channel

To open long positions on GBP / USD you need:

The bears did not allow the pound buyers to break through the resistance level of 1.2877, which I talked about in more detail in my morning review. At the moment, the challenge is still the breakthrough of 1.2877, which will open a direct road to the area of maximum 1.2962, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound in the second half of the day, support is expected at the level of 1.2799. However, it is best to open long positions immediately on the rebound from the low of 1.2725.

To open short positions on GBP / USD you need:

Failure to consolidate above the resistance of 1.2877 led to the sale of the British pound, which I spoke about in my morning forecast. A decline and breakdown of support at 1.2799, where the GBP/USD pair is currently aiming, will lead to a larger sale of testing 1.2725 and 1.2662 minimum, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of positive news on Brexit, a break of 1.2877 will lead to an increase in pounds. In such a scenario, it is best to open short positions to rebound from the highs of 1.2962 and 1.3039.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The Bollinger Bands indicator indicates a decrease in volatility and does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on November 20. Euro buyers retreat before the decision of the European Commission

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

It was not possible to break above resistance 1.1456, which led to the expected decline of the euro in the area of support 1.1426. I indicated this in detail in my morning review . However, as we can see, the demand at 1.1426 is also absent. It is best to open new long positions in EUR / USD after reducing and updating the support level of 1.1393 or to rebound from a minimum of 1.1361. The main task of the euro buyers in the afternoon will be a return to the resistance of 1.1426, which will maintain the upward potential.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears did not let the pair go above the resistance of 1.1456 and the formation of a false breakdown there, to which I paid attention in my morning forecast, led to a decline in the euro. The breakthrough of support for 1.1426 will allow sellers to count on a further downward correction in the area of minimums of 1.1393 and 1.1361, where I recommend taking profits. In case of EUR / USD growth in the second half of the day, it is possible to return to short positions on a rebound from the resistance of 1.1456.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade gradually moves under the 30- and 50-day moving average, which can lead to a change in the market trend to a downward one.

Bollinger bands

Trade gradually moves under the 30- and 50-day moving average, which can lead to a change in the market trend to a downward one.

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MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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If you have strong nerves, buy a pound - UBS

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Analysts of the Swiss financial holding UBS Group recommend investors who will find the strength to survive the months of the volatility of the British currency, catch it in the fall in the process of Brexit."When quotes reach extreme levels, buyers, as a rule, return to the game," the company representatives said."Over the past week, the pound has experienced a lot of trials against the background of a series of resignations in the British government. However, if the head of the Cabinet of Ministers, Theresa May, fails to conduct a "divorce" agreement through the parliament, the pound risks being under even greater pressure," they added.According to experts, in this case, the British currency may fall in price to $ 1.20, a level that has not been observed since October 2016."We believe that even in the case of the implementation of the" hard "Brexit scenario, the GBP / USD pair is unlikely to fall below this mark," UBS experts said."As for the EUR / GBP pair, levels above 0.95 should be considered as attractive entry points," they say.

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The euro weakens as investors choose safe havens. When will the storm end?

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Sales on European stock markets and unrest relative to Italian banks overturned the single currency from the recently reached maximum. Earlier, cautious comments by Fed officials about the growth of the global economy, weak data from the US, and the sale on Wall Street supported the euro.However, support was not strong enough, the euro retreated against the backdrop of falling European stocks and the ongoing confrontation on the budget issue between the EU and Rome. Trade disputes between the United States and China, Brexit talks and a Wall Street sale crushed investors in less than a day. The euro fell after earlier reaching a two-week high against the dollar.

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Safe currencies take advantage of the situation and add to the price due to growing demand, investors are massively going to the "safe haven". The Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the same dollar showed an increase. How the euro will behave in the coming days depends on how long the storm lasts on the stock markets in Europe. This was a surprise for traders, by and large, the euro has every reason to grow. The dollar may be weakened by data on the housing stock, which has already led to a decrease in the yield of ten-year US government bonds. The sector recorded a record decline in the last four years, which means that the rising cost of borrowing is compressing real estate markets.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 20, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish movement is maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Quick bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.1420. To be noted that prominent supply zone as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 enhances further bullish movement towards 1.1520 and probably 1.1600 where the upper limit of the daily channel comes to meet the EUR/USD pair.

Thus, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within a narrow price range (1.1275-1.1400) until breakout occurs in either directions.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 20, 2018

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On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted demand-zone of (1.2850-1.2780) where slight bullish recovery towards 1.2980 (key-level) was overpowered by quick bearish decline towards 1.2720 on November 15.

In other words, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2980 (key-level for the short-term scenario). Moreover, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price zone around 1.2780.

Bullish persistence above the price zone of 1.2850-1.2780 (demand-zone) is needed to prevent further bearish decline and to allow another bullish movement to occur towards 1.2980.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below 1.2780 allows further bearish decline towards 1.2700 and 1.2670.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 20, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that BTC reached my yesterday's target at $4.866. Anyway, I still see strong downward presure on BTC, which is a sign that buying looks very risky. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find the next downward target and I got Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of $3.254. Watch for selling opportunities.

Support/Resistance

$4.866 – Intraday resistance

$4.191– Intraday support

$3.254 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Oil grabs a straw

After seven weeks of active sales of black gold, which was the longest series since 2011, speculators decided to pause. During this period, they got rid of futures contracts by 553 million barrels in equivalent, reducing net longs to 547 million barrels. In late September, the figure reached 1.1 million in January with a record high of 1.484 million barrels. The second half of autumn has become a real nightmare for fans of Brent and WTI. First, profit taking and then the belief that global supply will outpace demand and the market will return to deficit pushed oil futures quotes to 8-month lows. The transition of the analyzed asset to the territory of the Bears forced OPEC to think about reducing production.

Dynamics of speculative short positions on oil

The consolidation of the North Sea variety is facilitated by rumors about important decisions being made at a meeting of the cartel with other major manufacturers on December 6. Markets are laying in the quotes of futures contracts expectations of reducing production by 1-1.4 million b/s. Saudi Arabia speaks about it openly, but Russia is still holding cards closer to the chest. Vladimir Putin said that Moscow is satisfied with the price of $ 70 per barrel but did not say anything whether the Russian Federation will participate in an agreement to reduce production. According to a study by Wood Mackenzie, the Russian figure hit a record high of 11.4 million b/d in September. Perhaps there is a sense to hold the horses?

By contrast, the US does not hide the desire to realize the dreams of Donald Trump on low oil prices. Their production has increased by almost 25% since the beginning of the year, the number of rigs from Baker Hughes has increased to 888, the maximum mark since March 2015, reserves have been increasing for several weeks in a row. In such circumstances, it becomes clear that the figures of $ 100 per barrel, which appeared in the forecasts recently, seem to be utopian now. Investors believe that the risks of the decline to $50 are currently higher. However, optimists are still in the ranks. In particular, BNP Paribas predicts a rise in Brent quotation to $80 a barrel by the end of 2018 amid a decline in OPEC production. Next year, the bank expects an average price of $69.

To clarify the medium-term prospects for oil, the dynamics of the US dollar is important. The slowdown in the US economy and the speed of normalization of the monetary policy of the Fed paint the future of the USD index in gray colors. On the other hand, you will not find competitors among the G10 currencies in the afternoon with fire, and if the States lose speed, they will pull down global GDP and global oil demand.

Technically on the daily chart, Brent quotes entered the convergence zone of $ 63.85-66.35 per barrel (61.8% of the long-term uptrend - target by 88.6% for the Shark pattern). This circumstance reinforces the risk of a rollback towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% from the last downward wave. The rebound from resistances at $ 69.8, $ 73.05 and $ 75.65, as a rule, is used for sales as part of the Shark transformation in 5-0.

Brent daily chart

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for November 20

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we expect the upward movement to continue after the breakdown of 1.1470. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the potential for the top of November 15 is still relevant as the initial structure. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the maximum value for the downward structure of November 13 is at the level of 0.9885. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect a further downward movement after the breakdown of 112.35. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price is in equilibrium. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, we expect the move to the level of 143.41, and we consider the move to the top as a correction.

Forecast for November 20:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1544, 1.1494, 1.1469, 1.1430, 1.1401 and 1.1363. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of November 12. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1469 - 1.1494 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.1544, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1430 - 1.1401 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1363 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1470 Take profit: 1.1492

Buy 1.1496 Take profit: 1.1540

Sell: 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1404

Sell: 1.1396 Take profit: 1.1370

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2966, 1.2928, 1.2878, 1.2843, 1.2729, 1.2691 and 1.2603. Here, the price forms a small potential for the top of November 15 in the correction of the downward structure. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.2729 - 1.2691. In this case, the potential target is 1.2603, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2843 - 1.2878 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2928. The range of 1.2928 - 1.2966 is the key support for the downward movement. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 7, the formation of potential for the top of November 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2845 Take profit: 1.2876

Buy: 1.2880 Take profit: 1.2926

Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2610

Sell: Take profit:

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0013, 0.9985, 0.9959, 0.9943, 0.9923, 0.9909 and 0.9885. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward structure of November 13. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9923 - 0.9909 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 0.9885, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9943 - 0.9959 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9985 and the breakdown of which, in turn, will begin to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9944 Take profit: 0.9957

Buy: 0.9962 Take profit: 0.9982

Sell: 0.9923 Take profit: 0.9910

Sell: 0.9907 Take profit: 0.9887

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are: 113.33, 113.12, 112, 82, 112.64, 112.37, 112.10, 111.91 and 111.50. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of November 12. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 112.35. In this case, the goal is 112.10 and in the range of 112.10 - 111.91 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 111.50, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 112.64 - 112.82 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 113.12 and this level is the key support. Its breakdown will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the medium-term descending structure of November 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.64 Take profit: 112.80

Buy: 112.85 Take profit: 113.10

Sell: 112.33 Take profit: 112.10

Sell: 112.08 Take profit: 111.95

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3363, 1.3314, 1.3279, 1.3218, 1.3194, 1.3151, 1.3115 and 1.3074. Here, the price forms the potential for a downward trend in the correction zone from the upward pattern on November 7. We expect a short-term upward movement in the range of 1.3194 - 1.3218 and the breakdown of the last value will resume the upward trend. In this case, the target is 1.3279 and in the range of 1.3279 - 1.3314, we expect a short-term upward movement. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.3363.

The continuation of the development of the downward structure of November 14 is expected after the breakdown of 1.3151. In this case, the target is 1.3115 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3074, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend is a local ascending structure of November 7, the formation of potential for the bottom of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3194 Take profit: 1.3216

Buy: 1.3220 Take profit: 1.3275

Sell: 1.31548 Take profit: 1.3120

Sell: 1.3113 Take profit: 1.3080

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For the Australian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7426, 0.7391, 0.7344, 0.7292, 0.7265 and 0.7238. Here, we are following the ascending structure of November 13. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7344. In this case, the goal is 0.7391 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7426, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7292 - 0.7265 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7238 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of November 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7346 Take profit: 0.7390

Buy: 0.7393 Take profit: 0.7424

Sell: 0.7290 Take profit: 0.7267

Sell: 0.7263 Take profit: 0.7240

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For the Euro / Yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.23, 127.98, 127.22, 126.95 and 126.41. Here, the situation is in equilibrium. The passage of the range of 129.00 - 129.17 will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 129.63.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.23 - 127.98. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 127.22 and in the range of 127.22 - 126.95 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.41.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 128.23 Take profit: 128.00

Sell: 127.93 Take profit: 127.30

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.33, 146.43, 145.79, 144.60, 143.41, 142.51 and 141.28. Here, we are following the November 8 downward cycle. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.60. In this case, the target is 143.41 and in the range of 143.41 - 142.51 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 141.28, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 145.79 - 146.43 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 147.33 and this level is the key support for the downward movement.

The main trend is the downward structure of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.80 Take profit: 146.40

Buy: 146.50 Take profit: 147.30

Sell: 144.55 Take profit: 143.45

Sell: 143.36 Take profit: 142.60

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The American stock market is falling against the backdrop of the risks of IT companies

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According to experts, US stock indices remain under pressure due to investors' concerns about the trade conflict between the US and China. Mostly large IT companies are hit, analysts say.At the close of trading on Monday, November 19, the Dow Jones index fell by 1.6% to 25,017.44 points, the S & P 500 fell by 1.7% to 2,690.73 points. The most serious negative dynamics was demonstrated by the Nasdaq index: by the close of the trading session, it collapsed by 3%, to 7,028.48 points.Quotes of most major American IT corporations dropped significantly: Amazon's shares fell 5.1%, Apple fell 4%, Alphabet lost 3.8%, Netflix lost 5.5%, and Facebook lost 5.7%.One of the important reasons for the sharp fall in US stock market quotes, experts believe investors are worried about the protracted conflict between America and China. According to Sean Cruise, TD Ameritrade's trading strategy manager, the concerns of market participants about the US-Chinese trade war are a key factor in the decline in quotations in the IT sector. The aggressive rhetoric of the American administration at the recent ASEAN summit is estimated by many investors as evidence of the impossibility of reaching a compromise in a trade war between countries.According to experts, in the future, such a scenario will provoke a rise in spending on the part of American corporations. They may lose the lion's share of the Chinese market. At the same time, the level of costs will increase by several times, analysts believe. These are much more serious consequences compared with the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed and the possible slowdown in the growth of the American economy in 2019, experts say.

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EUR and GBP: The decision of the European Commission may weaken the euro. Pound is waiting for news on Brexit

The European currency continues to update weekly highs contrary to all forecasts gradually getting closer to large resistance levels located near the highs of this month.

However, it's not at all desirable to talk about preserving the euro's current upward potential before the decision of the European Commission on Italy. It is quite probable that the European Commission will express its position tomorrow on the issue of Italy's failure to comply with the EU's budget requirements and it will more likely not be in favor of Italy. This will lead to a surge in volatility and may derail the trading tool to more attractive levels of support for buying, which we will talk about below.

The data released yesterday showed that the positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments in the eurozone in September declined compared with August. The decline was due to the rapid decline in the positive balance of trade in goods.

According to the report of the European Central Bank, the positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments in September 2018 was 17 billion euros, while in August the figure was 24 billion euros. However, over the past 12 months, the overall Eurozone surplus has grown.

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Let me remind you that US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the eurozone economy for the inflated foreign trade surplus, which provoked the US to a trade conflict, which is still "in limbo". For 12 months, the positive balance of the current account of the Eurozone balance of payments amounted to 357 billion euros.

Data on the US economy put pressure on the US dollar. According to the report, the indicator of confidence in housing builders in the United States in November of this year decreased. This was due to concerns about the availability of real estate. According to a report by the National Association of Home Builders, the housing market index fell to 60 points in November. Economists expected the index to be 67 points. Let me remind you that the index value of more than 50 points indicates a good market condition.

The speech of Fed representative Williams did not support the US dollar yesterday. According to the statement, the US economy is in very good condition but employers report a shortage of skilled labor, which indicates a good state of the labor market.

Williams also noted that the Fed's current monetary policy rate is not predetermined but the Fed is moving toward a gradual increase in interest rates. The representative of the Fed once again reminded that the purpose of the committee is to support economic growth in the future.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, problems for buyers of the European currency may arise already in the resistance area of 1.1480 since a number of indicators indicate the divergence and overbought of the euro in the short term. An unsuccessful consolidation above 1.1480 may lead to the formation of a larger downward wave with an exit to the minima of 1.1420 and 1.1390. In case of a breakthrough at 1.1480, the upward trend may continue until the monthly highs of 1.1520 and 1.1570 are updated.

As for the British pound, the uncertainty with the implementation of the plan for Brexit continues to put pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Yesterday's speech by the British Prime Minister Theresa May to the members of the Confederation of British Industry did not bring much success. After May's statement, CBI's CEO Carolyn Fairbairn said that the draft agreement with the EU presented by the Prime Minister was not perfect but was a kind of compromise in the current environment.

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Experts predict a weak dollar

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Analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs believe that next year, the main event in the foreign exchange market will be the decline in the dollar against a wide range of currencies."It is assumed that in the future, the global economic situation will change somewhat, which, combined with a number of negative medium-term factors, indicates a downward rather than upward trend of the dollar in 2019," the representatives of the financial institution noted."We expect that next year, the growth rate of US GDP will slow down significantly, namely from the current 3.5% to about 1.75%," they added.The reasons for the cooling of the American economy, experts call the deterioration of financial conditions and the exhaustion of the stimulating effect of tax cuts.According to the Goldman Sachs forecast, in the next six months, the EUR / USD pair may reach 1.17, GBP / USD - 1.38, USD / JPY - 110.Ray Dalio, head of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, in turn, said that in the foreseeable future, the risk of the dollar to fall in price by 30%.According to him, the reason for the collapse of the US currency could be the further growth of the so-called "triple deficit" of the United States (the budget deficit, the trade balance, and the current account)."As a result, the status of the dollar as the main global reserve currency will be threatened. And then, we may see a strengthening of the positions of other currencies," said Ray Dalio.Lawrence Fink, Chief Executive Officer of BlackRock Inc."Washington's sanctions policy against a number of countries undermines the position of the US currency. However, the main threat to the dollar is still an increase in the US budget deficit," he believes.

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Control over the oil market after the collapse of OPEC will take three countries - experts

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According to analysts, at the moment, OPEC has lost control over the global black gold market. The era of the cartel is nearing its end, and it can be replaced by three major oil producers, Russia, the USA, and Saudi Arabia.

Experts believe that it is the actions of the leaders of these states (Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Saudi Prince Bin Salman) that will determine the dynamics of oil prices in 2019. Their impact on the world market of black gold will be long, although the Saudi prince may be in the minority with the initiative to reduce oil production, analysts emphasize.

Currently, the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia dominate the market, determining the supply of raw materials. In total, they produce more oil than 15 countries of the cartel. Experts do not exclude that these states may increase production in the next year.

Earlier, in June of this year, Russia and Saudi Arabia initiated the mitigation of the terms of the OPEC + agreement. In the future, countries have achieved impressive production volumes. At the same time, experts recorded a rapid increase in the level of production in shale deposits of the United States. The situation was also influenced by such facts as a decrease in expectations of growth in world demand and the possibility of relief for a number of Iranian oil buyers from Washington. As a result, the mood in the black gold market has changed to less positive, experts say. According to a study by the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil reserves in developed countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which have fallen since the beginning of last year, are growing again and may exceed the average for the last five years.

The global fall in oil prices forced the leadership of Saudi Arabia to agree to reduce production by 500 thousand barrels per day since December 2018. They recommended other participants in the transaction to reduce oil production by about 1 million barrels per day. The Russian leader was cool about this initiative, and the head of the White House attacked the cartel.

Saudi Arabian authorities may face serious difficulties in relations with the leaders of Russia and the United States. The President of the Russian Federation does not plan to restrict the production of black gold in the country again. At the moment, the budget of Moscow is less dependent on oil prices than during the signing of an agreement to restore the balance in 2016. The Russian leader is satisfied with the price of oil at $ 70. However, the Saudi prince needed a high oil income for the realization of ambitious plans to transform the national economy. According to estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for a balanced financial budget of Saudi Arabia, the price of oil should be at $ 73.3 in 2019. At the moment, Brent is trading at $ 5 below the stated level.

Confrontation Donald Trump may be much stronger than from other heads of state, analysts say. They find it difficult to predict the further development of the situation. Experts believe that a serious threat to the Saudis' plans is the increase in production at shale deposits in the state of Texas. Over the past year, American oil producers have significantly increased their production volumes. Experts believe that by April next year, production in the United States could reach 12 million barrels per day. This is 1.2 million barrels higher than forecast in January. As a result, the Saudis desire to balance the black gold market in 2019 may run into opposition from the American leader and the indifference of the head of the Russian state, experts believe.

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The general trend for the growth of the dollar will continue

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The dollar turned to a decline this week due to a number of factors, whereas last week, the dollar index climbed to 16-month peaks.Thus, the hawkish attitude of the American regulator has weakened. Jerome Powell focused on increasing volatility in financial markets, pointed to the extinction of the effect of tax reform and the decline in demand outside the United States. According to Powell, these reasons may make the Fed think about a pause in raising rates in the middle of next year.Markets gave a response to a change in tonality, although perhaps there is nothing new here. The head of the US Central Bank in his early comments made it clear that the regulator is set to increase rates at a meeting in December. In 2019, financial officials are set to increase 2-3, so this slowdown can be interpreted as a repetition of the voiced statement.What does this mean for the dollar?This means that the general trend for the growth of the US currency will continue, although small kickbacks are likely to be avoided. In the short term, attention should be paid to the dynamics of the dollar index near 95.80 and the ability of the euro/dollar pair to develop an attack above 1.1400.

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If the dollar goes below 95.50, then this may well be a signal for breaking the upward trend. According to the main currency pair, such a "go-ahead" will be obtained with growth above 1.1500.The medium and long-term outlook for the dollar remains bearish. Next year, it has little chance of developing success, and it is likely to become cheaper relative to most of the G10 currencies. Such dynamics will be caused by a slowdown in the country's GDP and a decrease in the rate of normalization of the monetary policy of the American Central Bank. Analysts at Reuters (54 out of 102) are confident that the Fed will raise rates three times next year, as promised. In the meantime, the number of predictors of a double tightening of the policy is increasing over the course of the year.More and more experts began to talk about a possible recession in the next two years, expectations rose from 30% to 35%. In a number of projections, this is about a slowdown in the US economic recovery to 2.7% in the fourth quarter. In 2019, growth will stall to 2-2.5%, in 2020 - to 1.8%.Traders sell the dollar against major currencies.The major players in the week to November 13 sold the dollar against major currencies, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On these days, short positions were closed in the euro, pound, Aussie, kiwi, and franc, as well as the growth of their volume in the Japanese yen. As a result, the amount of net long greenback fell by $ 1.9 billion, to $ 30.2 billion, leaving the area of 3-year peaks.The most sold out currency is the yen, then the euro, the Aussie, and the pound. The bearish positioning in the franc and kiwi can be called moderate, and according to the loonie, neutral.The amount of net short for a single currency narrowed by $ 1.5 billion, to $ 5.2 billion. Since the beginning of September, this is the first serious improvement in sentiment on the part of traders. The Euro Bulls opened new positions in 3 of the last 4 reporting periods, and the Bears became less active in the period under review.The net short position on the main outsider of the market, the yen, was close to $ 11.2 billion. The new sales figure for the reporting 7 days amounted to $ 2.2 billion, and the new purchases, $ 0.8 billion. One "bull" accounts for almost four "bears".

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EUR/USD analysis for November 20, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1471. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I found the potential reversal zone around the level of 1.1465. I found the up-thrust (reversal bar) and price failed to test the resistance at 1.1500, which is a sign of weakness. The upward channel is active and my advice is to watch for a breakout of the upward channel to confirm a further downward movement. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1220,

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for November 20. Pound sterling is waiting for news from Parliament

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Wave counting analysis:During the November 19 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair added just a few points and made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. Thus, there are again reasons to assume a significant complication of the downward trend. However, this option will be very likely, if from the UK and will continue to receive negative news regarding Brexit. If the parliament accepts the conditions of Theresa May and, thus, there are no new obstacles for an orderly exit of the country from the EU, the pair can still build an upward wave c with targets above 32 figures.The objectives for the option with purchases:1.3175 - 0.0% of FibonacciThe objectives for the option with sales:1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)General conclusions and trading recommendations:The GBP / USD currency pair remains in the process of building an upward set of waves, but the wave marking, if successfully attempted to break through the 100.0% of the Fibonacci level, will require making adjustments. So far, the chances of building this rising wave remain. I recommend buying a pair with the aim of 1.3175 in small volumes, not forgetting about protective orders.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for November 20. Bulls continue to push the euro up

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Wave counting analysis:In the course of trading on Monday, the EUR / USD currency pair added another 40 basis points more and continues to build the proposed first wave of a new uptrend trend. The beginning of the construction of a correctional wave 2 is still expected, but the pair easily passed the Fibonacci level of 76.4%, which leads to the conclusion that it is ready for a further growth. Under 100.0% of the Fibonacci level, there are still chances of resuming the construction of a downward trend plot with complication.The objectives for the option with sales:1.1215 - 0.0% of FibonacciThe objectives for the option with purchases:1.1500 - 100.0% of FibonacciGeneral conclusions and trading recommendations:The currency pair continues to build an upward wave, presumably the first in the new uptrend trend. However, the size of this wave is already almost 100.0% of wave 5, thus, in the near future, I expect the instrument to go down. Buying a pair is now quite risky since Brexit's uncertainty speaks in favor of a possible decline, but the situation may clear up this week. Sales are now also associated with risk since it is not known how the vote on Brexit and the UK Parliament will end.

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GBP / USD. 20th of November. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Speech by Mark Carney, tension in the British Parliament.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.CCI: -23.8138The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, November 20, was stuck between the Murray levels of "2/8" and "3/8". Thus, we expect the pair to break out of this side channel. The price is in close proximity to the moving average line, from which a rebound may occur. In this case, the downward trend will be resumed. From a fundamental point of view, the pound sterling is entering a "storm" zone. In the near future, the British Parliament will vote for Theresa May's plan to leave the EU. At the moment, it is even difficult to guess how the voting will end. Although, of course, there is a little more chance that the bill will be adopted. Any new delay or the parliament's refusal to accept Theresa May's plan would mean a complete failure of the entire Brexit procedure. This is certainly not an option for the UK. Thus, most likely, "with a scratch", but the plan of May will be adopted. However, a whole lot of questions remain, ranging from the possible second referendum and the possible resignation of Theresa May to the parliament's refusal to accept May's plan and the new resignations of ministers, who thus disagree with the policy of the prime minister. In general, there can be a lot of news from Britain in the coming week, and each of them can cause sharp reversals of the pair and increased volatility. Today, the Bank of England's CEO Mark Carney will also give a talk, which is potentially an interesting and important event.Nearest support levels:S1 - 1,2817S2 - 1.2756S3 - 1.2695Nearest resistance levels:R1 - 1.2878R2 - 1.2939R3 - 1.3000Trading recommendations:The currency pair GBP / USD continues the upward correction. If the pair rebounds from the moving average line or Heikin Ashi turns down, it will be a signal to open new short positions with the target of 1.2817. However, we draw attention to the fact that in the coming days, frequent and sharp reversals of the currency pair are possible.Buy orders will become relevant after overcoming the traders pulling. However, in this case, in the coming days, the pair can often perform reversals, and all this may be accompanied by increased volatility.In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.Explanations for illustrations:The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. 20th of November. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Can the euro update the previous local maximum?

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.CCI: 114.5581The currency pair EUR / USD on Tuesday, November 20, continues its upward movement, as indicated by the purple bars of the Heikin Ashi indicator. As on the first trading day of the week, today there are no important macroeconomic reports scheduled in Europe and the USA. Thus, the main factor on which traders will rely when making trading decisions will be technical. Despite the fact that a downward correction is expected at least for the EUR / USD currency pair, as there are no fundamental reasons for strong growth in the euro now, the Heikin Ashi indicator continues to signal its absence. Thus, if a downward reversal of the indicator does not follow, then today the advantage in the pair may remain with the European currency. Market participants need only to follow the trend. One of the key points for the coming days will also be the possible overcoming of the previous price high (of November 7). If the pair overcomes it, it can mean a willingness to continue the upward movement. If the pair cannot update it, it will be a strong signal to the fact that the downward trend will resume. The Brexit theme is still very important for both the euro and the pound sterling. For the euro to a lesser extent. However, important data on this topic may affect the preferences of traders.Nearest support levels:S1 - 1,1414S2 - 1.1353S3 - 1,1292Nearest resistance levels:R1 - 1.1475R2 - 1.1536R3 - 1.1597Trading recommendations:The EUR / USD currency pair continues to move up. Thus, now it is still recommended to trade on the increase with the objectives of 1.1475 and 1.1536. The color of 1-2 bars with Heikin-Ashi indicator in blue will signal a reduction in long positions.Sell positions can only be considered after the price is fixed below the moving average. In this case, the trend in the instrument will become downward, and the first target for the short positions will be the Murray level of "1/8" - 1,1292.In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.Explanations for illustrations:The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.CCI - blue line in the indicator window.The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for November 20. Euro is preparing for a new fall

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair consolidated above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423. As a result, the growth process continues on November 20 in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.1497. Today, the bearish divergence is brewing at the MACD indicator. The education will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the pair. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 61.8% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of a fall.The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair closed above the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. However, on this chart, a bearish divergence is brewing, in the CCI indicator. Thus, we have two emerging bearish divergences, which allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight decline in the direction of the correction level of 127.2%. The end of the pair's rate from the Fibo level of 100.0% will similarly work in favor of the American dollar.The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.Recommendations to traders:You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1497 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 76.4% since the pair completed the closure above the level of 1.1423 and hold them until a bearish divergence is formed.Selling of the EUR / USD currency pair will be possible with the goal of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1423, especially in conjunction with the bearish divergence.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for November 20th. The pound twice failed to overcome the barrier of 1.2880

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair completed first closing above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812 and then rebounding from it. As a result, the growth process on November 20 can be continued in the direction of the correctional level of 61.8% - 1.2904. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Reversing the quotations from the Fibo level of 61.8% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a return to the correction level of 76.4%. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the chances for a further growth in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.2980.The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair performed two round-offs from the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2878 and two, from the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.2809. Thus, today the pair can return to the correction level of 61.8%. A new rebound from this level will again allow us to count on a turn in favor of the American currency and a return to the level of correction of 76.4%. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 61.8% will increase the likelihood of continued growth towards the next correction level of 50.0% - 1.2935.The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.Recommendations to traders:New purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with a target of 1.2935 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 61.8% if the pair closes above 1.2878 (hourly chart).Selling of the currency pair GBP / USD will be possible with the goal of 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 61.8% if the pair rebounds from the level of 1.2878 (hourly chart).

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AUD/USD analysis for November 20, 2018

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Recently, the AUD/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 0.7258. According to the H4 time – frame, I have found a fake breakout of the resistance at the price of 0.7300, which is a sign of weakness. I also found the breakout of the support trendline in the background and hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities with the target at the price of 0.7167.

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The foreign exchange market will balance up to the G20 summit

The market continues to exaggerate the topic of a possible pause in the Fed interest rate increase after the Fed member P. Harker on Friday made it clear that there could be a pause in the increase in interest rates.The fall in the US stock market, as well as the growing likelihood that the world economy will slow down against the background of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, as many believe, can become the basis for a pause in the increase in interest rates by the US regulator.Patrick Harker, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, promulgated on Friday, in which he said that he was not sure about the advisability of the December rate hike, and was the reason that had a strong influence on the dollar. It should also be noted that another representative of the Central Bank, J. Williams, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who is vice chairman of the Federal Reserve System Committee on Open Market Operations (FOMC), on Monday, noted that the regulator is going to continue to raise interest rates, moving to the direction out of the normal level.In general, as long as the markets are confident that a "black cat" has run through the rate of Fed members, the dollar may remain under pressure. And only, as we see it, a decisive increase in rates at the December meeting can dispel these sentiments.An additional negative for the dollar also turned out to be a drop in the yield of US Treasury government bonds, which can be attributed, on the one hand, to hopes that the Fed will pause the borrowing cost increase, and, on the other hand, doubts that the States will manage to negotiate with the Chinese on trade parameters . Here, the transformation of a trade conflict into something more, into a political confrontation, into a "cold war" plays an important role, which is unlikely to contribute to the normalization of economic relations.Evaluating everything that happens, we believe that the dollar can remain under pressure until the outcome of the G20 summit, which will be held in Brazil at the end of this month.Forecast of the day:The USD / JPY currency pair is trading below the level of 112.65. It is under pressure to wait for a possible pause in raising the Fed's rates in December, as well as the uncertainty about whether an agreement will be reached between the States and China at the G20 summit. It can be assumed that if the pair does not rise above the mark of 112.65, then it will continue to fall locally to 112.00.The USD / CHF currency pair is trading below the level of 0.9945. The same factors act on it as on the previous one. It can be assumed that if the price does not rise above the level of 0.9945, then it will continue to fall to 0.9850.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 20, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.1467 to the bottom around 1.1215. But the pair rebounded from the bottom of 1.1215 to close at 1.1347. Probably; historic will repeats itself again. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.1215, and the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 1.1312, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the EUR/USD pair is able to break out the first support at 1.1215 , the market will decline further to 1.1134 in order to test the weekly support 2. In the H4 time frame, the pair will probably go down because the downtrend is still strong. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 1.1215 with the first target at 1.1170 and further to 1.1134. At the same time, the breakdown of 1.1312 will allow the pair to go further up to the levels of 1.1467 in order to retest the major resistance.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBPUSD for November 20, 2018

GBP/USD has been trading firmly bearish after resignation of the Brexit Minister. This event shifted the overall market sentiment on GBP. While GBP has been struggling with the recently published economic reports, USD gained impulsive momentum, though it is struggling amid waning likelihood for a steady pace of monetary tightening and better-than-expected employments reports.

Recently GBP has been highly sensitive to BREXIT developments. GBP has been hurt by resignation of the Brexit Minister. Besides, GBP responds to news on the Brexit talks between UK Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU authorities. Apart from political factors, GBP has been performing quite poorly due to downbeat economic reports like CPI and Retail Sales. Today UK Inflation Report Hearing is going to be released which is expected to reveal neutral readings. Investors do not expect significant changes in monetary policy in the short term that might cause further GBP losses against USD. As there is no other high impact economic report to be considered this week, Inflation Report Hearing is the only market-moving event for GBP traders to look for this week.

On the USD side, upbeat employment encouraged further USD gains. The market sentiment is quite confused about further momentum in light of public remarks from Fed Vice Chair about revised agenda for monetary tightening. Waning confidence in steady rate hikes has lead to USD weakness. The FED is considering a gradual pace of rate increases. The regulator remains quite uncertain whether the official funds rate is going to be increased to 2.50% for a better reason. According to the FED's survey on labor participation in the US, the labor market is at full employment which is indeed a great plus point for the economy to boost itself in the future. Today US Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.26M from the previous figure of 1.24M and Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.23M from the previous figure of 1.20M. Moreover, tomorrow Core Durable Goods Orders report is also going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%.

Meanwhile, USD is quite solid ahead of the upcoming economic reports whereas GBP is expected to struggle further in the context of the BREXIT uncertainty until the UK strikes a deal with the EU for long-term stability. If the US provides better-than-expected reports, this is certainly bullish for USD. Thus, USD is likely to hold the upper hand over GBP in the short run.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 1.2850 area from where it is expected to push lower as per recent indecision in a strong bearish trend. The price is expected to push lower towards 1.2650 and later towards 1.2500 area as it remains below 1.30 with a daily close.

SUPPORT: 1.2500, 1.2650

RESISTANCE: 1.2850, 1.2920, 1.30

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for November 20, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot point: 0.7299.

The AUD/USD pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.7185. This week, the pair rose from the level of 0.7185 to a top around 0.7299 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 0.7242. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7299 followed by 0.7352, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7185 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7250 and 0.7352; so we expect a range of 102 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7299, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7299) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7299 with the first target at 0.7352 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7394. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7394 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7185, a further decline to 0.7069 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of EUR/GBP pair for the week of October 20

Wave pattern on the H4 chart:

The dominant direction of the cross trend in the short-term is given by the rising wave of April 17.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The last actual wave of this scale began the formation from the end of August and was already completed. In the wave of the higher timeframe, the plot became a bearish correction (B).

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Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

The high potential of the rise that began on November 13 makes it possible to expect its continuation. Over time, the entire movement will move to a larger scale. In the coming days, a short-term flat is not excluded.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Conditions for long-term investment in the tool has not yet been created. It is necessary to wait out the period of high volatility. In the scale of the international trade style, purchases are preferable.

Resistance zones:

- 0.9030 / 0.9080

Support areas:

- 0.8850 / 0.8800

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the number of wave markings used by the author. While the dotted shows the formed movement.

Note: The wave algorithm doesn't take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To trade a trade transaction, you need to confirm your trading systems!

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Trading Plan for 11/20/2018

In principle, yesterday's movements in the foreign exchange market were absolutely logical in terms of relative informational silence on political issues. Thus, the single European currency was able to strengthen due to the accelerated growth rate of the construction industry in Europe, from 2.2% to 4.6%. While in the US, the NAHB house price index has declined from 68 to 60. Of course, this indicator is not the end but amid growing construction in Europe, that was enough. Yet, the pound could not take advantage of weak American data given that the growth rate of housing prices by 0.9% was replaced by a decline of 0.2%, according to Rightmove. So there was no reason for optimism in the pound.

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Today, Mark Carney will speak but one should not expect any serious statements from him. Against the background of an obvious political crisis that erupted in the UK because of the "divorce" agreement with the European Union, the head of the Bank of England will obviously try to sit below the grass, quieter than water. Most likely, he will once again declare that the regulator is ready to continue tightening the monetary policy but only if the economic situation allows which frankly is pretty sad. It is also worth maintaining caution with the single European currency since tomorrow the European Commission will hold a meeting on the Italian budget deficit. The outcome of this meeting will most likely be a new round of panic over the public debts of the euro area countries, which by the way, will make it clear once again the probability of extending the ECB's quantitative easing program is extremely high. Perhaps higher than its recoil. In turn, it is predicted that the number of building permits issued will increase from 1,241 thousand to 1,267 thousand and construction projects commenced from 1,201 thousand to 1,225 thousand.

The euro/dollar currency pair shows an active upward interest, reaching the level of 1.1440, where it formed a slowdown from Doji type candles. We can assume a gradual fixation below the level, followed by a rollback towards 1.1420.

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The pound/dollar currency pair, forming a correction from the level of 1.2770, reached the value of 1.2880, where it formed a slowdown. We can assume a temporary fluctuation within 1.2825/1.2880, primarily heading towards the lower boundary.

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GBP/JPY Testing Support, Prepare For A Bounce

GBP/JPY is approaching its support at 144.30 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where price is expected to bounce up to its resistance at 145.93 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is testing its support at 2.7% where a corresponding bounce is expected.

GBP/JPY is testing its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 144.30. Stop loss at 143.18. Take profit at 145.93.

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EUR/CAD Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop

EUR/CAD reversed off its resistance at 1.5113(100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 1.5017 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 96% where a corresponding drop is expected.

EUR/CAD reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop.

Sell below 1.5113. Stop loss at 1.5201. Take profit at 1.5017.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 20. The pound continues to experience uncertainty with Brexit

To open long positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Yesterday, buyers tried to return to the market, but failed to break above an important level of resistance. At the moment, the main task is to break the upper limit of the channel in the area of 1.2877, which will lead to the formation of a new upward wave with an exit to the highs in the area of 1.2962 and 1.3040, where I recommend taking profit. In case the pound declines, support will be at the level of 1.2799, however, it would be best to open long positions immediately to a rebound from the low of 1.2725.

To open short positions for GBP/USD, it is required:

Like yesterday, an unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.2877 will be a signal to open short positions in order to drop to the area of the first support of 1.2799, the breakdown of which will lead to a larger sell-off of the GBP/USD with a minimum test of 1.2725, where I recommend taking profit. In case of positive news on Brexit, a breakthrough of 1.2877 will lead to an increase in the pound. In this scenario, it is best to open short positions by rebounding from the high of 1.2962 and 1.3039.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands indicator indicates a decrease in volatility and does not provide signals on entering the market.

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Indicator description

  • Moving Average (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • Moving Average (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 20, 2018

EUR/USD is in a bullish short-term trend since bottoming around 1.1215. Our first target of 1.13 was reached and our next target of 1.1450-1.15 is also accomplished. There are no bearish divergence signs in short time frames but bulls should be very cautious from now on.

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Yellow rectangle - resistance

Blue rectangle - short-term support

Green rectangle - trend support

Green line - trend line support

EUR/USD is approaching its last high. This is resistance area. Support is at 1.14-1.1390. If broken we would have the first weakness sign. If this happens we would most probably have a break of the green RSI trend line. We are very close to breaking it. Price of the RSI is marginally holding above it. So bulls need to be very careful as the RSI is reaching overbought levels. A break below the green rectangle area will confirm that we are in a new downward leg towards 1.1050. Breaking above 1.15 area would be a bullish sign but price should not be chased by bulls at current levels.

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