GOLD Pressured By Dollar Strenght!

Gold is traded at $1,680 level after the failure to stabilize above the $1,700 psychological level, but the outlook is still bullish despite this minor correction. I've said in my analysis that you should be careful on the short term because the gold price could decrease a little after the last rally.

The yellow metal has decreased in the short term also because the USD has appreciated versus the other currencies. If USDX closes and stabilizes above the 100.00 psychological level, USD will increase further and the Gold could slip lower. The Gold drop could be temporary, we'll have a larger one only when the COVID-19 spread will slowdown significantly.

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Technically, the price has come back down to retest the inside sliding line (sl) of the ascending pitchfork after the false breakout above the upper median line (uml). I've said in the previous week that Gold is bullish as long as it stays above the inside sliding parallel line and above the median line (ml).

We could have a great buying opportunity if the price will be rejected by the sliding line (sl) and if it jumps and consolidates above the $1,700 level and above the weekly R1 ($1,702) level.

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A bounce back from the inside sliding line (sl) and a stabilization above the $1,700 and above the R1 ($1,702) levels will confirm a further increase towards the upper median line (uml) and towards the $1,800 psychological level.

We'll have a further drop if the price closes below the sliding line (sl), the next downside target is seen at the median line (ml). However, a reversal and a major corrective phase could appear and could be confirmed after a valid breakdown below the $1,600 level.

Gold is very heavy right now as the Dollar Index is fighting hard to come back above the 100.00 level, but you should remember that the yellow metal is still bullish and that the current drop could give us a chance to go long again.

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Trading plan for April 20, 2020. EUR/USD. The coronavirus is retreating. Oil and the US markets.

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Oil declined on Monday morning. The CL contract fell below $ 15 - this is caused by the oversupply of oil in the market, despite the OPEC + deal and the expectation of a global economic downturn in the 2nd quarter.

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Last week, the US market closed at the monthly highs, ignoring the extremely negative data on the US economy, such as the rising unemployment to 12 million. So far, the huge packages of economic assistance from the Fed and the government outweigh these factors, however, it will cease to put pressure on the market after some time, and we will soon see a new wave of a decline.

Coronavirus: We see clear signals that the pandemic is receding in the Western countries:

US - despite the huge number of infected people - 765,000, which is almost a third of the overall number of infected worldwide (2 million 400 thousand), the daily increase of new cases is 26 thousand. This is the lowest recorded since April 5. Mortality rate also decreased to +1,560 per day

Europe - similarly, the mortality rate in Italy and Spain fell to below 450 per day. In France and Britain, mortality decreased below 500 and 600 deaths per day.

Authorities in US and Europe are beginning to gradually open economies - begin easing the rigidity of quarantine, since the huge decline in the economy, as well as the rising unemployment, is becoming the number 1 problem.

Italy reduces its restrictions. Texas opens. Israel begins to soften quarantine.

Russia: The number of infected increased sharply on April 19 - +6,000. The country now ranks second, after the United States, in the highest number of new infections per day, despite the relatively small number of coronavirus cases (42,000)

EUR/USD

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Euro is consolidating with an advantage downward.

Open sell positions if euro falls below 1.0675.

Open buy positions if euro rises to 1.0990.

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USD/CAD testing 1st support, further bounce!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.4058

Reason for Entry: horizontal pullback support

Take Profit :1.4277

Reason for Take Profit: 100% Fibonacci extension , 50% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.3849

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing low

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 20/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Recently there was an interview with co-founder Ethereum and founder Cardano (ADA) Charles Hoskinson. During the interview, he discussed his criticism of the Ethereum platform development.

Hoskinson believes that one of the main reasons for the development of Ethereum was because it depends too much on Vitalik Buterin personally, which means that Ethereum is growing at the speed of development of Vitalik as CEO. According to Hoskinson, this shows that Ethereum is Vitalik's first major project:

"He has never done it before. This is his first company, his first project. He was never a researcher, he was never a CEO."

Another serious criticism that the founder of Cardano has towards Ethereum is the fact that project development plans are too optimistic, which leads to unreal expectations. Hoskinson suggested that there might also be some dishonesty related to the way the project was sold about the fight for ProgPow, as evidenced by an attempt to change the proof of work algorithm as they switch to proof of stake.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $188.86, but this high was made on a Pin Bar candlestick pattern that might indicate a deeper downside correction. So far the bears has manage to push the price towards the level of $176.77, which is the lower boundary of demand zone, but the bulls keeps fighting back. Over the weekend they have pushed the price almost back to the highs and currently are trading in a narrow range close to the top. The market participants await for a decisive breakout in either direction so it is worth to keep and eye on the next develpomnent on the Ethereum market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $240.86

WR2 - $214.90

WR1 - $200.99

Weekly Pivot - $173.55

WS1 - $159.05

WS2 - $132.99

WS3 - $117.12

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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EUR/USD. Preview of the week: ZEW, PMI, IFO reports and the US labor market

The euro-dollar pair started the trading week almost at the same level as it did when it closed Friday's trading. Over the weekend, there were no events that would affect the mood of traders, although US President Donald Trump voiced quite loud statements – both regarding China and the progress in the fight against the coronavirus. But this rhetoric failed to provoke any market unrest, at least during the Asian session on Monday. EUR/USD traders froze in anticipation of information impulses, which will not only be from the front of the fight against the epidemic this week. The market will also respond to macroeconomic reports that will reflect the extent of the negative impact of the coronavirus.

The main macroeconomic news will come from Europe, where the ZEW, PMI, and IFO indices will be published. We will find out preliminary data for April – this is the most difficult month in terms of the epidemiological situation. It should be noted that the market is ready for negative trends, but if the real numbers are much worse than predicted, then the euro will come under strong pressure, which will allow the EUR/USD bears to take the initiative again.

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In particular, the report of the center for European economic research (ZEW) will be published tomorrow, April 21. Positive dynamics are expected both in Germany and in the euro area as a whole, although the indicators will remain deep in the negative area. So, if the German index came out at -49 points in March, then it should rise to -40 in April. A dubious achievement, but the dynamics themselves are important here. If the indicator continues to decline, the euro will be under strong pressure. There are certain prerequisites for this: the coronavirus factor, the pessimistic IMF report, Lagarde's dovish rhetoric, slowing inflation, weak German data – all these circumstances can not but affect the mood of entrepreneurs. But it is worth emphasizing that if the real numbers match the forecast values, the European currency will stay afloat. Otherwise, if the downward dynamics is more extensive, the EUR/USD pair will get another reason for its decline.

An indicator of consumer confidence in the euro zone will be published on Wednesday, April 22. A negative result is also expected - a decrease to -20 points (a multi-year record) after the March decline to -11 points. Although this indicator is considered secondary, its downward dynamics will put additional pressure on EUR/USD.

Thursday will be the busiest in the context of publishing macroeconomic reports. First of all, PMI reports for key European countries will be published. If these releases repeat the expected trajectory of ZEW (i.e. a slight recovery in indicators), the euro will receive significant support. But in general, experts expect a negative trend - especially in the service sector. As for the manufacturing sector, it is also expected to slow down relative to the previous month. The very fact of a negative trend can increase bearish sentiment.

The US will also release reports on Thursday. First of all, we are talking about the growth in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Let me remind you that this indicator has been growing at a tremendous pace for several consecutive weeks. This figure jumped to three million on March 26, then it rose to almost seven million, and it was at 6.6 million the week before last. This indicator was also expected to exceed the 6 million mark last week. But it did not do so: it came out at 5.2 million. Although such a result is not a reason for optimism, dollar bulls still retreated from positions they won. In this case, the millionth values are no longer frightening – the trend itself is important. According to the preliminary forecast, 4.5 million applications are expected this week. If the stated figures coincide with the real ones, then we can already talk about a downward trend. This fact could put pressure on the US currency, since the dollar has recently been used as the main protective asset, and its well-being depends not on the dynamics of key economic indicators, but on the level of anti-risk sentiment in the market.

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Another important indicator on Thursday is the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector. It crossed the 50-point border for the first time in many years by dropping to 48 points in March. A further decline of up to 36 points is expected in April. Bears of the EUR/USD pair will receive support only if the indicator shows a weaker result.

The final chord of the trading week will be the indices from IFO. There are also no surprises here: the decline on all fronts, however, is not as noticeable as in March (for example, the indicator of the business environment tumbled by 10 points in the previous month). In this case, traders will also track the dynamics - if at least minimal, but still growth is recorded, the EUR/USD pair will receive a reason for their correctional growth.

The pair remains bearish from a technical point of view. The price on the daily chart is located under the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, under the Kumo cloud, and under all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. However, the bears of the EUR/USD pair failed to gain a foothold below the 1.0850 mark last week, which in this case is the nearest support level. You can open short positions to the bottom of the eighth figure and to the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (1.0740 mark) only if the price barrier is consolidated. The resistance level is 1.0930 (where you can place a stop loss) – if you consolidate it higher, the decline scenarios will lose their relevance.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 20/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The president of the Swiss Crypto Valley Association (CVA) said the coronavirus pandemic had a serious impact on the local cryptocurrency ecosystem.

A recent report states that representatives of nearly 80% of crypto valley companies have said they are likely to go bankrupt in the next six months. The information was based on a smaller sample, but it certainly reflects market sentiment.

The report - based on the replies of 203 company representatives - also claims that 88.2% of companies will not be able to survive a pandemic without government assistance. In addition, 56.9% already had to dismiss employees, and 90.7% expect this in the future. Haudenschild expects the coronavirus to have far-reaching implications for the local cryptographic ecosystem. The effect will be that companies will have to find a way to survive. Given that many of them have just emerged from the effects of a long crypto winter, this double blow will be difficult for them. The second effect will be that everyone will be forced to switch to digital technology.

To help companies in the crypto valley, the CVA is able to provide companies with information on how to get help - financially or otherwise. Unfortunately, the report also notes that 68.3% of cryptocurrency startups that have applied for a Covid-19 loan have not received such a loan. Haudenschild pointed out that most of the effort must be made by companies that themselves have to devise a new course of action.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a high at the level of $7,247 during the weekend, but Doji candlestick pattern has been made at the top of the move. The bears have managed to push the price lower towards the middle of the last wave up and the Bitcoin rate has stayed inside of the range during all the weekend. The momentum is decreasing, but is still pretty much positive, so the bulls might try to attack the last high again soon. Please watch the level of nearest technical support located at $6,908 to invalidate the bullish scenario.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,288

WR2 - $7,759

WR1 - $7,459

Weekly Pivot - $6,596

WS1 - $6,675

WS2 - $6,137

WS3 - $5,855

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Economics and politics demand an end to the pandemic; Overview of CAD and JPY

The main driver for global markets risks becoming the political situation in the United States, directly related to the November elections. Against the background of the inevitable economic slowdown, Trump's election rating is declining, forcing him to look for ways to get the US out of quarantine, while most governors do not intend to give the solution to this issue at the federal level and threaten with open defiance.

The lifting of quarantine measures will most likely begin on May 1, as a result of which the risk appetite will begin to grow, but simultaneously with hasty steps, the risk of a second wave of the epidemic will increase, and as a result of which Trump will get the opposite effect and lose the election in November.

On the other hand, South Korea followed China to a plateau on infections, European countries also noted a slowdown in the growth rate of new infections, so there are still some reasons for optimism.

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Data on new applications for unemployment is expected to be published on Thursday and Friday, as well as PMI in industry and orders for durable goods. Failing data, combined with a slowdown in the spread of coronavirus, will help lift quarantine measures and increase demand for risky assets by the end of the week.

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar, like any commodity currency, is under double pressure due to both the pandemic crisis and the oil price war. Data on the spread of the virus are similar to the United States and there have been signs of improvement in recent days, but risks of a purely economic nature are not reduced.

The Bank of Canada has lowered the rate to the level at which it will stop for a long time. The launch of a bond buyback program from municipalities and provinces contributes to economic stabilization in the short-term, but at the same time indicates a high degree of despair in the longer term. CAD prospects depend both on the recovery of oil prices and on the restoration of world trade and the forecast is negative for both parameters.

Moreover, CAD sales in the futures market continue, the CFTC report confirmed the selling course, the fair estimated price is higher than the spot price and has a tendency to increase.

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The probability of resumption of growth is high. The nearest target is 1.4180, a stronger resistance zone is 1.4270/4310, and it is also the goal for the short-term. The movement may trigger a report on consumer inflation for March, which will be published on Wednesday.

USD/JPY

Japan's macroeconomic indicators continue to deteriorate. Exports in March declined by 11.7%, imports by 5%, and the trade balance was much worse than forecasted. The current account surplus disappeared slowly, and as a result, the Nikkei index did not support Friday's enthusiasm during the opening of trading on Monday and went into the red zone.

The yen is influenced by several factors that have the opposite direction. Risk aversion and falling commodity prices help strengthen the yen, while the weakness of the domestic economy and large-scale government program weaken it.

The CFTC report showed that the demand for the yen is kept at a high level and it still has a strong potential for strengthening, speculators are not in a hurry to abandon the yen to hedge risks. The estimated fair value of USD/JPY is around the level of 104.50 as of Monday morning.

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The stabilization of the business cycle and positive expectations for the global economy to overcome the crisis associated with the pandemic can send the yen to 110. On the contrary, lower commodity prices and a further drop in world trade can send it to 104. While it cannot be said which trend looks stronger, from a technical point of view, an attempt to test support for 106.85 has already taken place twice. Taking into account the consistent decline in local peaks, a third and successful attempt can be expected.

The probability of USD/JPY moving down is high, sales are trying to increase to 108, stop is near 108.10/20, and the target is at 106.80,, With a successful break down, a short position with the target at 105.20 (the estimated middle of the emerging downward short-term channel) can be build up. The impulse that can send the yen down to 104.50 may be the publication on Friday of the report on consumer prices for March.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 20/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has fallen out form the Falling Wedge pattern in a dynamic way and made a new local low at the level of 1.0812 before the local consolidation took place. For all the weekend, the EUR/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range located between the levels of 1.0812 - 1.0893, but the Pin Bar candlestick has been created at the top of the range. This indcates a possible increase in the bearish activity soon, so it is worth to keep an eye on the local support at 1.0812. Any violation of this level will lead to the test of the key short-term support located at the level of 1.0778.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1134

WR2 - 1.1063

WR1 - 1.0956

Weekly Pivot - 1.0883

WS1 - 1.0784

WS2 - 1.0701

WS3 - 1.0600

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 20/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

After falling out of the parallel channel, the GBP/USD pair has made a local low at the level of 1.2416 and has been consolidating in a narrow range during all the weekend. The larger time frame trend remains up, but in the short-term the bears are in control of the market and the next target for them is located at the level of 1.2406 and below at 1.2369 (61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up). Please notice, that the level of 1.2406 had been providing support for some time now, so any violation of this level will lead to a deeper sell-off towards 1.2369 and even 1.2165.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2855

WR2 - 1.2741

WR1 - 1.2613

Weekly Pivot - 1.2507

WS1 - 1.2367

WS2 - 1.2267

WS3 - 1.2125

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 04/20/2020 and trading recommendation

The market essentially froze in anticipation of at least some news. What is macroeconomic, what about the coronavirus epidemic. At the same time, frankly, macroeconomic data still has a very limited impact. Data is clearly not enough to determine the mood of market participants. At the same time, frankly, reports regarding the coronavirus epidemic are clearly more important at the moment, which is generally not surprising.

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If we talk about macroeconomics, then the European session was accompanied by a weakening euro, under the influence of inflation data. As expected, the final data confirmed a preliminary estimate, which showed a decrease in inflation from 1.2% to 0.7%. A rather noticeable decrease in inflation, in itself, is a rather negative factor. But in the current conditions, this could be another reason for the European Central Bank to think about the possibility of reducing the refinancing rate to negative values. The issue scares investors even more than the fact of a slowdown in inflation.

Inflation (Europe):

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But while European traders are more oriented towards macroeconomics, their overseas colleagues pay more attention to news reports on the coronavirus epidemic. The euro grew when the US session opened. Surprisingly, this process coincided with many reports that Europe has already passed the peak of the epidemic, and despite the extension of the restricted quarantine regime, restrictive measures are gradually being mitigated in many countries. For example, starting today non-grocery stores and museums will open in Germany. But, so far appeals and conversations on this topic do not go beyond such in the United States. But the fact is that it is too early to talk about when the peak of the epidemic has passed. And almost certainly, the coronavirus theme will be in focus today. Moreover, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. And given the fact that in general, relatively positive dynamics are observed in Europe and the United States, and the number of new cases of coronavirus infection also seems to be declining, the situation looks uniform. In other words, we are unlikely to see serious fluctuations.

But while European traders are more oriented towards macroeconomics, their overseas colleagues pay more attention to news reports on the coronavirus epidemic. The euro grew when the US session opened. Surprisingly, this process coincided with many reports that Europe has already passed the peak of the epidemic, and despite the extension of the restricted quarantine regime, restrictive measures are gradually being mitigated in many countries. For example, starting today non-grocery stores and museums will open in Germany. But, so far appeals and conversations on this topic do not go beyond such in the United States. But the fact is that it is too early to talk about when the peak of the epidemic has passed. And almost certainly, the coronavirus theme will be in focus today. Moreover, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. And given the fact that in general, relatively positive dynamics are observed in Europe and the United States, and the number of new cases of coronavirus infection also seems to be declining, the situation looks uniform. In other words, we are unlikely to see serious fluctuations.

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a gradual downward movement, during which the quote locally went down to the area of 1.0810, but after which there was a rebound. In fact, the consistent amplitude singled out the variable boundaries of 1.0810/1.0890, within which the quote evolves.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, the daily period, 80% working out the trading path on 04/07/20-04/14/20 is recorded, which confirms the theory of downward interest.

We can assume a local movement in the direction of 1.0815, where you should carefully analyze the behavior of the quote, since the risk of maintaining an amplitude of 1.0810/1.0890 is on the market. It is worth considering that if we do not have trading positions, then it is possible to think about them below the 1.0845 mark.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see a predominant downward interest in all time sections.

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AUDJPY showing a trendline breakout and pullback! Further drop to come!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 68.940

Reason for Entry: ascending trendline resistance pull back, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 66.505

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 69.689

Reason for Stop loss: Start of gap, -27% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/CAD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry:0.85820

Reason for Entry: horizontal pullback resistance, 100% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.82797

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low support, 50% and 76.4% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.86994

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 20 - 2020

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EUR/GBP remains locked in a very narrow trading-range between 0.8682 - 0.8726. We expect an ultimate break to the downside for a test of our ideal target at 0.8621. It is likely to lead to the corrective decline from 0.9499 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally to above 0.9499.

Only a direct break above minor resistance at 0.8793 will confirm that wave 2 is completed and wave 3 is in motion.

R3: 0.8765

R2: 0.8745

R1: 0.8739

Pivot: 0.8702

S1: 0.8685

S2: 0.8650

S3: 0.8621

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 0.8635 or upon a break above 0.8765

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 20 - 2020

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Short-term support at 133.69 continues to protect the downside. Therefore, the possibility for a spike above the peak at 135.72 looks likely. We favor a break below key-support at 133.69 confirming that wave iv has completed and wave v being in motion for a decline to below 123.99.

We must accept that as long as key-support at 133.69 is able to stay unbreached, a rally to above 135.72 may occur, but the odds for this outcome are low.

R3: 136.36

R2: 134.40

R1: 135.02

Pivot: 133.69

S1: 132.97

S2: 132.41

S3: 131.41

Trading recommendation:

We sold GBP at 134.35 with our stop placed at 135.50

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GBP/USD IPDA 60 Day Ranges Price Movement For April 20, 2020

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As we can see on the 4-hour chart, Cable is now trying to reach the nearest liquidity pool at 1.2647 as its first target and 1.2773 as its secondary target. Nevertheless, this scenario will be canceled if GBP/USD moves bellow the 1.2222 level. The overall bias for GBP/USD is bullish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: IPDA 60-Day Range Price Movement For April 20, 2020

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The nearest Fiber's Liquidity Pool at 1.0990 is likely to be broken soon if the pair can test this level. In this case, it will have a chance to go up to 1.1058 as the next target. As long as the pair does not retrace downwards lower than below 1.0812, the overall bias of EUR/USD is bullish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 20. Pound remains in the channel, but the market is on the side of the pound

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Excellent purchases from a low of 1.2408 on Friday, which I noticed in my review, led to a repeated update of resistance of 1.2512, which will be emphasized in the first half of the day. At the moment, the task of buyers of the British pound is to keep the 1.2462 level, and forming a false breakout on it will be an excellent signal to open new long positions in the hope of continuing the upward correction to the high of 1.2512. Its breakout will lead to a larger upward trend in the area of 1.2573 and 1.2632, where I recommend taking profits. If the demand for the pound does not return after the correction to the support of 1.2462, then by analogy with Friday, it is best to return to long positions only after the test of the low of 1.2408. Given that no important fundamental data on the UK economy is released today, buyers of the pound may try to take the market under their control.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound did not allow the pair to go above the resistance of 1.2512, which was quite expected. At the moment, the bears in the first half of the day will expect a breakout and consolidation below the 1.2462 level, which is a kind of middle of the side channel and where the pair is currently located. A break of this level will be a signal to open short positions in order to fall to the low of 1.2408 and with a possible support test of 1.2358, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls are stronger and manage to remain optimistic after the good news about the fight against COVID-19, we are talking about successful tests of the vaccine, then it is best to return to short positions immediately on the rebound from the major resistance of 1.2573, where a large surge in volume will be recorded, indicating the exit of speculative buyers from the market.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a clear attempt by the bulls to seize the initiative.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator at 1.2525 may lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In the event of a decline, you can buy on the test of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2435 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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Forecast for EUR/USD on April 20, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro did not dare to make any noticeable decline last Friday, moreover, it even grew by 35 points by preceding to pierce the signal level for selling 1.0830. Now this signal level is moving lower - to the Friday low at the 1.0812 level, overcoming the price opens the way to support the embedded line of the price channel in the region of 1.0610.

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The overall situation of a decline persists on the four-hour chart. The price is developing under both indicator lines - under the line of balance (red) and MACD (blue), the Marlin oscillator in the territory of negative values.

The price increase is limited by the resistance of the MACD line at around 1.0920.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on April 20, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound grew by 66 points last Friday, finding the MACD line with strong resistance and retreating from it by the end of the day. Today, it begins with a fall.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning down more and more clearly. For a more pronounced downward movement of the price, it is necessary to overcome Friday's low of 1.2405, which will be a condition for a fall to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2235. Furthermore, it is possible to fall to the Fibonacci level of 200.0% at the price of 1.1935.

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The price is below the balance indicator line on the H4 chart - the market balance is clearly declining. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative trend zone. We look forward to pulling down the British pound further.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on April 20, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar slightly grew on Friday under the general market sentiment to weaken the US dollar, but the resistance of the enclosed line of the price channel turned out to be stronger than the indirect influence, and the price retreated.

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At the moment, the price is still above the MACD line of the daily scale, but overcoming it at the 0.6316 level is the first signal to pull down the Australian currency. Leaving the price under the Friday low of 0.6265 will create a more powerful momentum to decrease - first to the nearest line of the price channel at 0.6175, then to the next one at 0.5798.

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Both signal levels are marked on the four-hour chart. Here we also see that the price has turned down from the MACD line and is currently decreasing under the balance line. The Marlin oscillator also turned down without going into the growth zone.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on April 20, 2020

USD/JPY

It was expected that the USD/JPY pair would fall last Friday, the price returned to the area under the price channel line and also under the balance indicator line at the same time, staying in the accumulation range of 106.87-108.10.

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The Marlin oscillator line has formed a wedge on the daily chart, which creates a condition for the indicator to break down. Most likely, the price will work out support on the nearest line at 106.87, overcoming which subsequently opens the 102.50 target.

Price growth to 108.42 is quite possible as an alternative for the day. In order to do this, the price will need to go above the upper signal level of 108.10 (Friday high).

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This morning the price jumped above both indicator lines on the four-hour chart - above the balance line (red) and the MACD line (blue). In addition, the Marlin oscillator turned up from the border of the bears' territory. The price has to leave these indicator lines as a prerequisite to resume the decline, below the 107.45 level. At the same time, the marlin signal line will move to the bearish zone.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 20. The rate of spread of "coronavirus" in the UK is not decreasing. The pound is at

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -25.6825

The British pound paired with the US dollar at the end of last week was firmly stuck between the Murray levels of "4/8" and "5/8", exactly between which the moving average line runs sideways. Thus, according to the "linear regression channels" trading system, it follows that a frank flat has begun. Volatility, however, remains quite high (130-140 points per day), however, in the current conditions, even with such volatility, we can state a flat. Based on this, we can only state attempts now to start a new downward movement. The Ichimoku indicator also confirms the presence of these attempts, as the price has overcome the critical Kijun-sen line. However, the bears now need to gain strength to continue the movement they started. The main problem now is that it is difficult to say what exactly can help the pair in moving in one direction or another. Macroeconomic statistics and the fundamental background continue to be ignored by market participants. Data on "coronavirus", of course, can not be ignored, but they do not cause a reaction from traders. The central banks of all the leading countries of the world did everything they could in the first weeks of the crisis. Now, along with the governments of countries, they simply flood their economies with cheap loans. So, in fact, nothing new is happening in the world right now. The fight against the COVID-2019 virus is underway, scientists are searching for and testing vaccines and medicines, governments are directing quarantine measures and investigating the emergence of the virus. Actually, everything.

However, it is in the UK that the world's first large-scale production of a new vaccine against "coronavirus" begins this week. New, unexplored, unproven in humans. As noted by the Director of the Jenner Institute in Oxford, Adrian Hill, the new vaccine has not passed any clinical trials, but doctors estimate the chances of high effectiveness of the vaccine more than 80%. Thus, British scientists want to play simply ahead of the curve. First, start mass production of the vaccine (it is planned to produce 1 million doses by September), and continue to conduct tests during its production. "While testing continues, we must start production with the risk that the tests may fail," said Adrian Hill.

Meanwhile, the number of people infected with coronavirus reached 2.367 million worldwide. In the UK, there were 121,000 cases of the disease and 16,000 deaths. Thus, it is on Foggy Albion, according to official statistics, that one of the highest mortality rates in the world is more than 10%. Over the past 24 hours, 888 people have died from the virus in the country and the death rate is not decreasing. Given the fact that in Italy and Spain, the disease is slowing its spread, the UK has a chance to get to the first place in Europe in terms of the number of infected in the next two weeks. However, the results of Italy's fight against the epidemic are still not positive. In the last 24 hours, 482 deaths were confirmed in Italy, which is less than a day earlier. The total number of deaths from the pandemic is already 23,000. New 3,500 cases were recorded, which is only slightly less than a day earlier. However, there are 179,000 cases in the country, and this figure continues to grow. Accordingly, there may be a decrease in the rate of morbidity growth, but this can hardly be considered a positive point if people continue to get sick and die. Approximately the same situation is observed in Spain. Over the past day, about 400 deaths and 4,200 new cases of infection were registered. The total number of infections is selected to the number of 200,000 and is the highest among all the countries of the Eurozone. However, doctors also note a slight decline in the rate of death growth.

There are no major events scheduled for Monday in the United States and the UK, so trading on this day can be boring and weakly volatile. The pair will have to decide on the direction of movement, but this will be difficult to achieve on the first trading day of the week.

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The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair has stopped decreasing and is currently 133 points. In the last 17 trading days, the pair almost every day passes from 100 to 200 points. Therefore, we can say that volatility is now stable. On Monday, April 20, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2366 and 1.2633. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards indicates a possible continuation of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2451

S2 - 1.2390

S3 - 1.2329

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2512

R2 - 1.2573

R3 - 1.2634

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar pair is currently trading just above the moving average line on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, formally, long positions with the targets of 1.2573 and 1.2633 are even relevant now. However, we recommend that traders wait for the level of 1.2512 to be overcome before considering buying the pound. It is recommended to sell the British currency not earlier than the reverse fixing of the price below the moving average and the level of 1.2451 with the targets of 1.2390 and 1.2366.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 20. Donald Trump threatens China with a new batch of sanctions for "coronavirus". France

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -63.8100

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to trade fairly calmly with relatively high volatility compared to quiet periods of time, and with relatively low volatility compared to crisis periods. On average, the euro/dollar pair now passes about 100 points per day. At the end of the previous week, the pair's quotes were fixed back below the moving average line, so now the trend for the pair is downward. The naked eye can see that the markets continue to calm down, and the pair itself is consolidating in the range of 1.08-1.10. Thus, on the one hand, we have a fairly good chance of forming a new downward trend, and on the other hand, there is also a "correction against correction" scenario, which has already been completed, but now, according to our assumptions, the pair will consolidate in a sideways or relatively sideways channel for some time. Thus, the option of moving up to the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986 is also not excluded now.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump last weekend once again said that the "peak" of the epidemic in the United States was behind and the country is beginning to relax quarantine measures. Next Monday, the states of Texas and Vermont will begin allowing some businesses to resume operations, and the state of Montana will begin lifting restrictions on Friday, April 24. This was stated by Trump at a regular briefing at the White House. At the same time, most of the US state governors have warned the US President that they will not lift restrictions prematurely. Many governors do not want to risk the lives and health of the population of their states and insist on pre-testing everyone for "coronavirus" and only then will they be ready to ease the quarantine measures. Donald Trump himself at this time "updated" his forecasts for the death rate from the COVID-2019 virus in the United States. Now, according to the US President, about 60,000-65,000 Americans will die from the epidemic. The US leader also announced a $ 19 billion aid package for American farmers. It is noted that due to the outbreak of "coronavirus", many farmers were forced to destroy their products, as demand has sharply decreased. It should also be noted that Donald Trump will continue to negotiate with the governors of all states, as he believes that "stopping public life at the national level can not be a long-term solution." States will be "opened" if no cases of the disease are registered on their territory within 7 days. The US President also said that the removal of the quarantine will take place in several stages. The first involves opening restaurants, bars, gyms, and other public facilities. The second is the opening of educational institutions. Groups of up to 50 people will be allowed to collect and optional trips will be allowed. At the last, third stage, restrictions will be lifted even for potentially vulnerable groups, and all institutions in the country will be able to resume work.

At the same time, a new conflict begins to flare up between China and the United States. If the EU countries simply allowed themselves to question the official information regarding the "coronavirus" coming from China, and the UK said that it would not be able to do business with the Middle Kingdom, as before, then Donald Trump openly accused China of hiding the real facts. In particular, the real number of deaths from the COVID-2019 virus in China. According to President Trump, the epidemic could have been stopped in time and done so in China. However, the Chinese authorities hid many facts about the new virus, which became a determining factor in the spread of the pandemic around the world. Earlier, the Associated Press reported that China has been silent for 6 days about the fact that the "coronavirus" can be transmitted from person to person. And the American TV channel Fox News said that "patient zero" was an employee of the laboratory of the Institute of Virology in Wuhan. According to Fox News, the virus "came out" from the lab, not from animals on the loose or in the markets. It is also reported that the Chinese authorities specifically came up with a version about the spread of the virus through the Wuhan Huanan Animal and Seafood Market. Donald Trump has already said that the United States is investigating this situation and will take appropriate measures. The US leader also said that if it turns out that China specifically hid certain facts about the disease, it will have to bear responsibility. "We (the US) are not in the first place in terms of mortality from coronavirus. China comes first. With a large margin. They know it, we know it, everyone knows it," Trump said. The head of the White House also hinted that relations between China and the United States may now deteriorate completely. Donald Trump noted that at the beginning of the year, the countries signed the "first phase" of the trade agreement. However, now that "China has done it", relations may break down. "Everything will depend on how the virus spreads. Whether it was a mistake, or it was done deliberately," Trump summed up. Thus, now China is on the verge of war (thank God, not in the literal sense of the word) with the world. Especially if it turns out that the virus really "escaped" from the lab. Especially if it turns out that Beijing was hiding the facts. Especially if it turns out that the coronavirus leak was not accidental. Now we can only assume that the "coronavirus" began its journey around the world not by accident. It is also no accident that the virus hit the US more than other countries of the world. And this happened just at a time when China had to sign a not very profitable trade deal with the United States. Of course, this is just an assumption. After all, any person can give as an argument the fact that not only the United States but the whole world was infected. However, this hypothesis can be considered as one of the versions of the non-random appearance of the virus.

On the first trading day of the week, you should not expect much from the euro/dollar pair. No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for April 20, so volatility may remain weak on this day. If the scenario with consolidation is implemented, we will see the growth of quotes to the Murray level of "2/8". Otherwise, we expect the Heiken Ashi indicator to turn down and resume forming a new downward trend.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair has stabilized around 100 points per day. Thus, fears for a new wave of panic in the market are still premature, but traders continue to behave quite actively. On April 20, we expect the pair's quotes to move between the levels of 1.0779 and 1.0967. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may indicate the end of the upward correction cycle.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0742

S2 - 1.0620

S3 - 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0864

R2 - 1.0986

R3 - 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has started a round of corrective movement against the downward trend. Thus, traders are advised to wait for its completion and again trade down with the targets of the volatility level of 1.0779 and the Murray level of "0/8"-1.0742. It is recommended to consider buying the euro/dollar pair if the price is fixed back above the moving average, with the goals of 1.0967 and 1.0986.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Preview of the week. Major drop in key macroeconomic indicators is expected in the UK and the United States. Crisis

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The British pound showed its intention to resume falling last week. Thus, in the new week, traders will immediately look in the direction of selling the pound/dollar pair. It should also be noted that there weren't any important data that were published in the UK last week. Or rather, none at all. There were no major interesting events in the UK, other than the fact that Boris Johnson was discharged from hospital after undergoing treatment for coronavirus, as well as the resumption of Brexit negotiations in video mode. However, you will agree that both of these messages, even at normal times, would not have caused any reaction from traders. Thus, not only do market participants not react to the macroeconomic background, but the background from the UK itself is quite meagre. We still have to deal with all the data planned for the next week and find out whether they can somehow affect the movement of the pair.

Before we start dealing with statistics, we would like to note that in principle, all movements of the pound are now quite measured. There are no sharp turns, no fluctuations. Therefore, if the pair performed a reversal at the end of last week, then, with a high probability, this is a call to a downward movement. As for statistics, Monday is traditionally a half-day, and data will only be available to traders on Tuesday. Reports on average wages, applications for unemployment benefits for March and the unemployment rate for February are scheduled for this day in the UK. The first and last reports do not interest us now, since the dynamics of wages are not the most important indicator in the crisis, and the unemployment rate refers to February, when there was no epidemic in Great Britain. But the number of applications for benefits is taking over from a similar indicator in the United States. According to statistics on this indicator over the past two years, its normal value has fluctuated between 10 and 30 thousand per month. The forecast for March is 272-300,000. And we believe that, as in the US, this forecast can easily be exceeded. This is at least ten times more than the highest average value. So Britain can follow in America's footsteps and start breaking all records for unemployment. In just a month, 22 million of the approximately 160 million economically active people in the United States lost their jobs. That is almost 14%. In the UK, the economically active population is 33 million and if only 300,000 people lose their jobs in March, it is only 1%. We believe that this forecast is extremely optimistic, because +1% unemployment in the greatest crisis in the last 90 years is practically nothing. Thus, the real numbers may be much worse, and the pound could fall under the sell-offs of traders.

The UK is set to publish inflation for March on Wednesday, April 22, which does not play a special role at this time. The forecasts are more than neutral - 1.7% in annual terms. This figure does not differ from the previous month's value.

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The UK will release business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sector for April on Thursday. The first, after a very good value of 47.8 in March, could fall to 40.8-41.5 in April.

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The second indicator – the meager March 34.5 points will fall even more and reach 27.2-29.4. However, as we can see, business activity is falling everywhere, all over the world, so traders should not be particularly impressed with this data. As we have already said, the most important thing now is to understand and comprehend how much the economies of the most developed countries of the world will shrink. China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. And also understand whose economy will suffer the most from the epidemic, quarantine, and crisis.

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The next report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States is set to be released on Thursday. Following the values of +3.3, +6.9, +6.6 and +5.2 million applications, an additional +4.5 million applications are expected. The total number of unemployed could increase by more than 26 million in five weeks.

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The US index of business activity in the manufacturing sector will be published with a forecast of 37.6–38.5.

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An important report on orders for durable goods is scheduled to be published in the US on this day. As we have already mentioned in the EUR/USD review, this indicator is quite important for the US economy and a strong fall can cause pressure on the US currency. A strong fall is very likely. According to forecasts, the drop in the main indicator will be about 12% at once with the usual fluctuation +-2-3%. The volume of orders for durable goods excluding transport can be reduced by 5-6%, and excluding defense orders-by 8-9%. These are huge numbers that perfectly reflect the scale of the economic crisis in the United States. More precisely, the beginning of this crisis.

What can I say about the result? As a result, this week we have only a few reports that can really influence the movement of the pound/dollar pair. These are, first of all, applications for unemployment benefits in Britain and the United States, and orders for durable goods in the United States. However, at the same time, traders may again ignore these reports. However, they remain extremely important and in any case their values should be noted. In the future, when the crisis is over and the global economy begins to recover, these figures will be important for the exchange rate formation of each pair.

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The business activity index for the services sector with a forecast of 32.2–32.5. Thus, in the United States, both indexes might fall even further compared to the month of March. However, the indicator of applications for unemployment benefits is still the most important.

Retail sales for March will be released in the UK on Friday, which is likely to decline in volume by 4.5% in annual terms and 4.2% - on a monthly basis.

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In technical terms, the pair started a downward movement, but it cannot develop yet, and the sell signal from Ichimoku remains weak. Therefore, traders need to overcome the Ichimoku cloud in order to count on a more or less strong downward movement.

Recommendations for the pair GBP/USD:

The pound/dollar is now trying to move to a new downward trend. We still believe that some unease remains on the market, since the fundamental background is almost completely ignored. This means that you should focus on the technique. Therefore, as long as the pair is located below the Kijun-sen critical line, short positions with targets of 1.2327 and 1.2246 (will be revised at the opening of trading on Monday) remain relevant.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Preview of the week. EU services sector will continue to crumble in April. Number of unemployed Americans will rise

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A new trading week will begin for the forex market, and we have to figure out what to expect and what the macroeconomic background will be. Unfortunately, traders continue to ignore most macroeconomic events. We have already said that the reason for this could be the active actions of major players in the foreign exchange market, which in times of crisis and epidemic carry out transactions not based on statistics and news, as it happens in normal times. Given the fact that small traders do not have access to the international market itself, in any case, only large players work on it, which, accordingly, drive it. However, in moments of peace, about 80% of statistics and important news is processed. Therefore, this is not the most stable time. On the other hand, no one knows when it will end. We need to be ready. It is unlikely that this state of health will continue throughout the entire time of the epidemic on the planet.

The coronavirus, despite some slowdown in the growth of the disease in the United States and the European Union, continues to spread across the planet. The number of infected people is approaching 750,000 in the US. The numbers are even worse in the European Union, because the total number of patients is around 675,000 in Spain, Italy, France and Germany. Thus, the growth rate of the pandemic may be slowing down, but it is very early to talk about defeating the virus. Moreover, the slowdown in growth could stop. We would like to note that for approximately a month and a half of hard quarantine in the United States and the EU, these two failed to completely reduce the number of new diseases to zero, unlike China and South Korea (at least according to official information), but only to slow the spread of the virus COVID-2019. That is, from our point of view, countries have achieved only a small reduction in the number of new diseases through strict quarantines and almost completely dead economies. On the one hand, it means more time to create a vaccine and a little less burden on the health sector, which is good. On the other hand, the results of mankind's struggle with the coronavirus are not yet impressive.

The most significant news in the upcoming week will be released near the end of it. However, macroeconomic information will be available to traders on Tuesday. On this day, the European Union will publish an indicator of economic sentiment from the ZEW Institute for April, which, of course, has a negative forecast at -62. The previous value was -49.5. The ZEW Institute will also release data for Germany, the index of assessment of current economic conditions for April with a forecast of -82.3, and the index of sentiment in the business environment with a forecast of -42.8. In principle, these reports were not significant enough even in average times, but we can see that the mood in the euro area continues to deteriorate. If so, other, more important indicators may continue to decline in April and May.

Important EU data will not be released on Wednesday, April 22, but there will be a plethora of different statistics and reports on Thursday. The day will start with business activity indices in the German services and manufacturing sectors. These are only preliminary values for April, but in most cases they are not too different from the final ones. According to experts ' forecasts, business activity in the manufacturing sector could decrease from 45.4 to 39.6.Recall that a month earlier, we said that 45.4 in the crisis is not such a bad value. However, now we see that the manufacturing sector has not just sharply fallen, like the service sector, but will also shrink. A reading of 28.9 is expected in the service sector, which means that there will be an even greater drop in business activity. Needless to say, neither the European Union nor Germany has seen such weak indicators of business activity in the past 20 years. This point indirectly proves the assumption that the crisis caused by the coronavirus will indeed be much more severe and destructive for the economy than the mortgage one.

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Business activity indices for the EU will also be published on Thursday. A drop to 44.5 was recorded in the manufacturing sector in March, while a decline to 39.0 is expected in April.

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The service sector collapsed to 26.4 in March, it is also expected to fall to 23.0-25.0 in April. Thus, traders expect that all indicators of business activity in the euro area will present new significant declines. Publications and business activity in the United States are also set to be released on this day, but all statistics from overseas will be considered in the GBP/USD article.

The EU calendar of events will be empty on Friday. Therefore, quite interesting reports in Europe will be published next week. Traders will only be able to draw conclusions about how business activity in the EU countries and economic sentiment have changed in recent weeks. This data is unlikely to cause any reaction. Based on this, we again conclude that US macroeconomic data will be the only one able to attract the attention of market participants. Looking ahead, we can say that the next report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States (released every week) could show an increase of another four million. Thus, the total number of Americans who lost their jobs will reach 26 million in five weeks. And such figures can lead traders out of the process of carefree purchases of the US currency and suspend the appreciation of the dollar. Data on orders for durable goods will also be released next week, which predicts a very strong decline. Since goods in this category are very expensive, their reduction also means a drop in the welfare of the US population, a drop in purchasing power, which obviously has a negative effect on the economy.

In addition to the planned publications, we recommend not to lose sight of the speeches of EU and US officials, including, of course, the main newsmaker – Donald Trump. There is no doubt that Trump will continue to give daily interviews and post messages on Twitter, which, as before, can cause a public outcry. Well, we also advise you not to lose sight of the oil market. After the OPEC+ countries came to an agreement to reduce production by almost 10 million barrels per day, oil continued to fall. Thus, it seems that oil is simply accelerating before a new price increase. Since the OPEC+ agreement will enter into force on May 1, afterwards, the price of a barrel of all grades is expected to increase.

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The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair continues to predict the growth of the US currency. There is a new sell signal from Ichimoku, which is strong as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. At this time, the pair is correcting, but it could resume the downward movement on Monday.

Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:

We believe that the fundamental background's influence next week will not be too strong. The exception would be one or two reports. No important speeches or events are planned for the upcoming week. Thus, as before, more attention should be paid precisely to the technical picture. Low volatility may occur on Monday and Tuesday. In general, we expect the downward movement to resume, at least until Thursday and Friday, when important reports come out in the US.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com