Global macro overview for 20/02/2018

The German ZEW index data release gave a mixed picture. The current assessment was worse than expected (92.3 points vs. 93.9 points), however, the expectations assessment was better (17.8 points vs.16 points), which is considered a more important component.

The details of the report said that the eurozone's and Germany's inflation expectations have started to rise finally and the economy is showing a strong level of performance. Moreover, the German economy should improve even more in next 6 months, so investors do not seem to think that the falls in ZEW have seriously affected the outlook. The biggest problem seems to be the EUR strength and a slowdown in China.

Every month, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) questions financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany's economic situation. They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy. For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged. This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time and easy to understand and interpret.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the lower channel line at the level of 1.2370 and currently is testing the technical support at the level of 1.2333. This is a quite strong support zone between the levels of 1.2333 - 1.2295, but if the momentum indicator drops below its fifty level, then the zone will be broken and the price will move towards the recent low at the level of 1.2212.

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Global macro overview for 20/02/2018

In the last 24 hours, the currency market has not shown anything new, mostly because of the holiday season in China and the USA. The US dollar continued to move higher, but it was a very slow movement: on a small scale and not comparable with the previous week's drops. The financial news feeds are busy looking for a link between a stronger dollar and an increase in the US bond yields after the market opened after the long weekend. The US bonds are approaching 2.92%, which at first glance seems to be a support for the dollar, but reporters forgot that this correlation does not work this year at all. The lack of traders from New York yesterday killed trade in the afternoon, and London itself was not much interested in playing with each other. Less-than-willing investors organized positions and made profits hoping for better entry levels later in the week. USD/JPY at 107 and EUR/USD at 1.2350 are starting to look interesting, especially since there is no sign that the market sentiment will change. Nevertheless, everyone is waiting for the first signal or a self-fulfilling prophecy (everyone will start selling suddenly).

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the the H4 time frame. The bounce from the level of 88.26 is looking solid so far, but none of the important levels has been tested yet. The nearest important technical resistance is seen at the level of 90.11, just below the old channel line. The key resistance remains at the level 90.59 and 90.98. The bouncing RSI indicator supports the short-term bullish outlook.

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Brent pulls the rope on himself

After a long 7-month rally, the oil market again took up the old one. For tug of war. On one side are the American producers of black gold, for which the current prices provide an excellent opportunity to increase the production volumes. In February, it jumped to a record of 10.27 million b / s and, most likely, will continue to grow further. This is evidenced by an increase in the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes for the fourth consecutive week. During this period, the indicator added 55 pieces and reached the level of 798. It would seem that it's time for the bulls to throw out a white flag. But it was not there.

If you and the enemy pull the rope each to your side, then for certain there is some kind of equilibrium point, near which it will be most often. The market is actively discussing the level of $ 60 per barrel by WTI, which allegedly will satisfy both the buyers and the sellers. Of course, each of these categories of participants in the market battles would like to see progress on their side, however, only one desire in the market, as a rule, is very small. So, competent sources Bloomberg say that at present, Saudi Arabia will arrange Brent for $ 70 per barrel, here its ministers and declare that the cooperation between OPEC and Russia will extend beyond 2018. Say, the framework of the new agreement will be outlined in the summer. If we add to this the cartel's statement about 133% fulfillment of its obligations by the member countries of the Vienna agreement in January, the oil will have a rather strong bullish driver.

Dynamics of WTI and OPEC oil production

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Source: Bloomberg.

Taking into account the fact that a group of states reduces production, and the States increase it, the movement of the rope in one direction or another will be determined by the dynamics of global demand. According to OPEC research, the indicator in 2018 will increase by 1.6 million b / s, and its dynamics are closely linked to the state of health of the world economy. In this connection, it becomes clear why black gold grows against the background of an upward trend in the stock indices and falls in response to the correction of the S & P500. States with their strong domestic demand and a large fiscal stimulus are a kind of locomotive of global GDP, and their share market is a thermometer that allows us to determine the state of our own economy.

At least as important for the medium and long-term prospects, Brent and WTI have US dollar positions. The risks of overheating of US GDP on the background of accelerated inflation and aggressive monetary restriction of the Fed force investors to actively sell the USD index, which is a "bullish" factor for oil. Ultimately, the asset expressed in dollar terms in the event of a depreciation of the latter will be cheaper in the countries that are the largest consumers. For example, in China.

Technically, after reaching a target of 88.6% on the pattern of the "Shark", the rollback looks natural. To restore the uptrend, bulls require successful resistance assaults at $ 69.25 and $ 70.25 per barrel. On the contrary, a retreat from the levels of 50% and 61.8% of the CD wave will increase the risks of correction development.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for February 20, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite indecisive recently having impulsive bearish pressure since the price broke below 134.50 support area. EUR has been quite positive with the economic reports today which did not quite helped the currency to sustain the bullish momentum against JPY. Recently JPY Trade Balance report was published with significant increase to 0.37T from the previous figure of 0.09T which was expected to be at 0.14T. The positive JPY economic report did not quite help the currency to sustain its impulsive bearish momentum, moreover lead to indecision above the support of 131.50 area. On the other hand, today EUR German PPI report was published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.3%, German ZEW Economic Sentiment report was published with better than expected figure of 17.8 decreasing from the previous figure of 20.4 which was expected to be at 16.0, ZEW Economic Sentiment was also published better than expected at 29.3 decreasing from the 31.8 which was expected to be at 28.4 and Consumer Confidence which is yet to be published is expected to be unchanged at 1. Moreover, throughout the day ECOFIN Meeting is going to be held which is expected to have minimal impact on the gains of EUR for the coming days. As of the current scenario, JPY is expected to gain certain momentum against EUR in the coming days of the week having better forecasts of the economic reports to be published while EUR is expected to struggle with the mixed economic reports for the coming days of the week until EUR comes with a better than expected high impact report to recover its grounds.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently expected to proceed lower towards 131.50 price area before showing any bullish intervention. A daily close with bearish rejection off the 131.50 price area is expected to lead to further bullish pressure on the pair with the target towards 134.50 again in the future. As the price remains above 131.50 the price is expected to bounce higher in the coming days.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for February 20, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains after rejecting off the 105.50 support area with a daily close. The impulsive non-volatile bearish gains lead the price to fall drastically from 113.50 area which is currently expected to show some retracement towards 108 price area before proceeding much lower in the future. Recently JPY Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 0.37T from the previous figure of 0.09T which was expected to be at 0.14T. Despite having no high impactful economic reports or events recently USD gained momentum which does lead to an explanation of current market sentiment ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday. As of the recent news, FOMC Meeting is expected to discuss another rate hike in March 2018 which may lead to further gain on the USD side for the coming days. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to gain certain momentum over JPY which will lead to a certain decision after FOMC Meeting outcome on Wednesday. Though expectation is to see a further gain on the USD side recent JPY positive economic report lead to indecision for the upcoming momentum in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently quite bullish with the gains which are expected to lead towards 108 price area before proceeding lower again in the future. The bearish trend has been quite non-volatile and impulsive earlier which is expected to continue further but with certain pullback along the way. As the price remains below 108.50 price area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 20, 2018

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. the pair keeps trading on the upside challenging the overhead resistance at 107.55. In fact, it is riding on a rising trend line drawn from the low of last Friday (February 16). It has also shot above the upper Bollinger band, calling for acceleration to the upside.

Therefore, the intraday outlook remains very bullish. Upon crossing 107.55, the pair should target 107.55. The trailing key support has been raised to 107.90.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended to be below 106.45 with a target of 106.05.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 106.45, take profit at 107.55.

Resistance levels: 107.55, 107.90, and 108.45

Support levels: 106.05, 105.50, and 105.20.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 20, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Despite the recent pullback from 0.9320 (the high of February 19), the pair is still supported by a rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.9280.

Hence, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a new rise with targets at 0.9385 and 0.9410 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9280, take profit at 0.9385.

Resistance levels: 0.9385, 0.9410, and 0.9465

Support levels: 0.9260, 0.9230, and 0.9200.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for February 20, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains recently after bouncing off the 1.25 resistance area. Despite having USD President's day and mixed EUR economic reports recently, USD gained impulsively which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure on the pair. Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes to be held on Wednesday this week, the pressure against EUR does indicate the market sentiment ahead of the high impact economic event. Today EUR German PPI report was published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.3%, German ZEW Economic Sentiment report was published with better than expected figure of 17.8 decreasing from the previous figure of 20.4 which was expected to be at 16.0, ZEW Economic Sentiment was also published better than expected at 29.3 decreasing from the 31.8 which was expected to be at 28.4 and Consumer Confidence which is yet to be published is expected to be unchanged at 1. Moreover, throughout the day ECOFIN Meeting is going to be held which is expected to have minimal impact on the gains of EUR for the coming days. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to gain further momentum where EUR failed to push higher having better than expected economic reports. As FOMC is expected to provide a hint about March Interest Rate Hike, USD may act more impulsively in the coming days which will result to further bearish pressure in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains since the bounce off the 1.25 resistance area. The price may bounce off the 1.23 support area where the dynamic level of 20 EMA is also expected to act as a strong support for the price to push higher. A daily close 1.23 will lead to further bearish pressure on the pair after FOMC or else EUR may take the lead again to push the price higher towards 1.25.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 20, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 50-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index calls for a new up leg.

To conclude, as long as 149.05 is not broken, look for a further advance with targets at 150.20 and 150.80 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended to be below 149.05 with the target at 150.

Strategy: BUY, Stop loss at 149.05, Take profit at 150.20

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 150.20, 150.80, and 151.50

Support levels: 148.75, 147.95, and 147.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 20, 2018

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NZD/USD is Under pressure. The pair is trading below its declining 50-period moving average, which plays a resistance role and maintains the downside bias. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

To conclude, as long as 0.7385 holds on the upside, look for a further decline with targets at 0.7335 and 0.7295 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7410, 0.7440, and 0.7485.

Support levels: 0.7335, 0.7295, and 0.7330.

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Bitcoin analysis for February 20, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $11,623.00. A proposal was presented at the Russian Expert Council for Non-Bank Credit Organizations to allow rural businesses in the country to receive crypto loans to attract funds from abroad. The chairman of the council, a State Duma member, is asking rural credit cooperatives to study and educate rural residents on cryptocurrency.The technical picture is neutral to bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found a breakout of the upward channel, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $10.858 and at the price of $10.410.

Support/Resistance

$11.623 – Intraday resistance

$11.113 – Intraday support

$10.860 – Objective target 1

$10.410 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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GBP/USD analysis for February 20, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3930. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.3960, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4043

R2: 1.4090

R3: 1.4135

Support levels:

S1: 1.3955

S2: 1.3910

S3: 1.3860

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 20, 2018

EUR/USD: This currency pair has been going downwards since Monday, shedding about 90 pips in the context of an uptrend. The price is now below the resistance line at 1.2350, going towards the support line at 1.2300. A movement below another support line at 1.2250 would result in a short-term bearish bias.

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USD/CHF: This pair has been going upwards since yesterday, gaining about 93 pips in the context of a downtrend. The price is now above the support level at 0.9300, going towards resistance level at 0.9350. A movement above the resistance level at 0.9400 would result in a short-term bullish bias.

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GBP/USD: This pair did not do anything significant on Monday, and it is doing nothing now. The market is neutral in the short term and bullish in the long term. However, a movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3850 would result in a bearish outlook; while an upwards movement from here would save the recent bullish bias.

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USD/JPY: This USD/JPY pair has been going upwards in the context of a downtrend. About 110 has been gained – and the bias could turn bullish when the supply level at 108.00 is breached to the upside. The demand levels are at 106.50 and 106.00, which may also be tested, which could reveal bears' power.

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EUR/JPY: This cross pair has been moving sideways in the short term. The bias remains bearish, and thus, when a breakout occurs (which would eventually happen), it would most probably favor bears. The demand zones at 132.00, 131.50 and 131.00 could be tested before the end of this week.

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Analysis of gold for February 20, 2018

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Recently, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,336.00. According to the 30M time frame, I found that the price is trading in the downward channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a broken bearish pennant in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,330.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,350.07

R2: $1,353.52

R3: $1,355.65

Support levels:

S1: $1,344.49

S2: $1,342.35

S3: $1,338.91

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for 20/02/2018

Cryptocurrency fraud has generated over 1,200 complaints to the Australian consumer law monitoring authority in 2017. Data from the Australian Commission on Competition and Consumers (ACCC) disclose 1289 complaints, some of which seem to refer to ICO. Australia has not responded to the recent requests from international regulators to closely follow the sale of cryptocurrency tokens and related activities. Since the World Economic Forum at the end of January 2018, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has prepared plans for further control of financial products, which were subsequently repeated by other entities, including the European Union. "These are quite speculative products and can be very risky (...). It has been documented that some of these products are scams, so do not invest unless you are willing to lose some or all of your money." - writes John Price, the Commissioner for Financial Supervision, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).

So the old saying "do your own research" is now more accurate than ever, especially in the cryptocurrency world. Please bear that in mind while choosing the new ICO crypto start-up before you decide to invest any sum of money in a particular project.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market did not make any bigger correction in wave (4), instead, it made a new local high at the level of $11,554. This is very close to the important technical resistance at the level of $11,896 and golden trend line as well, so some kind of a corrective pull-back might be expected soon. The support is seen at the level of $10,190 (weekly pivot point) and $9,707.

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Trading plan for 20/02/2018

In the holiday season, the currency market makes uncorrelated movements that are difficult to attribute to a specific reason. The USD continues to slowly strengthen across the board, only AUD is currently higher. In the commodity market, gold and copper are falling down, but oil is holding tight.

On Tuesday 20th of February, the event calendar is light in important economic releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on German PPI, ZEW Economic Sentiment and Current Situation data, Eurozone Consumer Confidence and ZEW Economic Sentiment data and Canadian Wholesale Sales.

AUD/USD analysis for 20/02/2018:

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the last RBA meeting did not bring any surprises. In the bank's opinion, inflation will accelerate "only gradually", just as wage pressure, despite solid economic prospects. However, there is still uncertainty about the situation of consumers and the real estate market. The cautious tone suggests that the bank is not preparing to tighten its policy in the near future.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market managed to test the 61% Fibo retracement but was too weak to break through it, so it went lower towards the technical support at the level of 0.7897. Th overbought market conditions indicate a possible slide lower towards the level of 0.7845 and even a test of the recent low at the level of 0.7765.

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Market Snapshot: DAX still under the resistance

The price of German DAX index has tested the level of 12,503, despite the higher lows at the H4 chart it did not manage to break through yet. Nevertheless, in a case of a breakout, the next resistance is seen at the level of 12,676, but it will be tested only if the old neckline resistance is clearly violated.

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Market Snapshot: Gold rally pauses

The price of Gold was rallying higher after a bounce from the support at the level of $1,308 and almost tested the old swing high at the level of $1,365. Nevertheless, the price has made a new local high at the level of $1,361 and reversed towards the technical support at the level of $1,331. This move is being supported by falling both stochastic and momentum indicators.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 20, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2250 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750.

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Daily Outlook

In September, the bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was projected towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, in November, the evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered a further decline, allowing the current bullish momentum to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 is needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2750.

On the other hand, a recent bearish pullback was expressed below the price level of 1.2450. This could extend towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for February 20, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, a further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (the reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). Besides, an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was seen around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (the prominent supply zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.

A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where an evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed. This enhances the bearish scenario initially towards the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7165 where recent bullish recovery was expressed.

The current price zone (0.7320-0.7390) remains a significant supply zone to offer a possible bearish rejection and another SELL entry. Stop Loss should be set as a daily candlestick above 0.7450.

Bearish fixation below 0.7300 is needed to allow a further decline towards 0.7160 and 0.7090.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for February 20, 2018

The dollar index is challenging the 4 hour cloud resistance and the medium-term trend line resistance at 89.50-90 area. Trend is bearish in cloud terms, but it can confirm a reversal soon if it breaks above the cloud.

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Red line - medium-term resistance trend line

The US dollar index is testing the previous support which turned into resistance at 89.60. The lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud is also at this level. This is the important resistance. A rejection at the current price level could push the index to new lows. The short-term support is at 89.20. A break below it will be a bearish sign.

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Blue line -long-term resistance

On a weekly basis the US dollar index remains in a bearish trend. The price needs to break and close first above 90.85 and next 91.50 levels in order to confirm a reversal. Target for a possible bigger bounce remains at the weekly Kumo near 93. A rejection at the 91 area could signal another turn lower towards 87. My bigger picture view considers that the entire decline from 103.60 is either complete or near completion, so traders should be monitoring reversal signs.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for February 20, 2018

Gold price has broken below the $1,340 level. The price is heading towards the cloud support as expected after getting rejected once again at the $1,350-60 area. The price got rejected for the second time at the long-term resistance level.

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In the 4 hour chart, Gold price is still above the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo). Trend is still bullish in cloud terms. Support is found at the $1,328-$1,319 area. This cloud support if broken will make the trend bearish for the short-term. Resistance is found at $1,344 and at $1,351. Bulls need to break at least above $1,344 to regain full control of the trend.

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Magenta line - long-term resistance

Blue line - long-term support

On a weekly basis, we have started this week with another rejection at the long-term resistance trend line. Support is at $1,319 initially and next at $1,300. Breaking below $1,300 will bring the price towards the important cloud support area that expands from $1,290 to $1,240. A breach of $1,290 could mean a move towards $1,240 or even the long-term trend line. Bulls need to clearly break above $1,350 and hold it. If this is the case, we will have a strong run to $1,400-$1,430.

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Breaking forecast 02/20/2018

Breaking forecast 02/20/2018

EURUSD: Consolidation before growth.

The whole technical picture indicates the incompleteness of the upward trend: No reversal figure. The price is well above the support line.

Major safe haven assets - yen, franc, gold, pound -are pictured directed against the dollar.

At the same time, before the increase can be significant, there rollback down to 1.2250, making purchases at current prices not very attractive.

Important news from those that are scheduled to be released- on Wednesday February 21 - "minutes" of the Fed. Against the background of a news lull, it could move the market.

Thus, until interesting levels appear at the entrance, our position is conservative:

Buy at the break of 1.2555 up, stop at 1.2510, profit at 1.2655.

Sell at the break of 1.2205 down, stop at1.2250, profit at 1.2100.

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Analysis of bitcoin for February 19, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite indecisive recently after an impulsive bullish gain breaking above $10,000 price area. The steady bullish pressure from the bounce since $6000 price area which has lead the price to head above $10,000 without much deeper in the process. As $10,000 price area is a psychological level and market participants has been quite confident since the break above the level it is expected to create higher highs in the coming days. As of the current scenario, the price has pushed more than 50% of yesterday's bearish pressure which indicates the strength of bullish participants in the market and is expected to push the price towards $12,000 and later towards $15,500 price area in the future.

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Global macro overview for 19/02/2018

Monday should be a calm day. The main reason is the US President's Day (the memory of the birth of Washington), so the biggest stock exchanges will remain closed. Let's add to this that until Wednesday, the Chinese will celebrate the New Year.

We will start Tuesday with data on the Swiss foreign trade balance and a report on wages in Hungary, which have recently grown at a double-digit rate. The next most important information is the publication of inflation data in Sweden and the latest reading of the ZEW index from Germany.

On Wednesday, we will begin another review of the initial PMI indices for the world's leading economies. Data will come from Japan, France, Germany, the Eurozone and the US. In the evening, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be published. Investors will look for guidelines regarding the subsequent movements of the Federal Reserve.

On Thursday morning in France, the final data on consumer inflation and the index of entrepreneurs' sentiments will come from France while Germany will release the Ifo index. Later on, the UK will publish the final GDP estimates for the fourth quarter. The event of the day will be the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts data.

The last working day of the week will start with the final data on German GDP, while an hour later Eurostat will present data on consumer inflation. A similar report will come from Canada in the afternoon. The week will be closed with the publication of the Federal Reserve's report on monetary policy.

Let's now take a look at the Dow Jones index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has managed to retrace 61% of the previous swing down and hit the level of 25,435. Currently, the price is pulling back towards the nearest technical support at the level of 24,893 as the market conditions are extremely overbought. Moreover, the momentum is starting to turn down a bit as the RSI indicator points to the downside. The larget time frame trend remains upwards.

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Global macro overview for 19/02/2018

Despite higher expectations of the interest rate hike by the FOMC, the US currency remains under selling pressure. The US Dollar is only temporarily supported by signals pointing to growing inflationary pressure in the form of the higher January reading of CPI and PPI inflation in the US. Last week's appreciation of the US Dollar has already been completely offset as the US Dollar index has hit the new lows this year and went below the 200-month average EMA on a monthly basis. On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair hit the new highs this year. The impulse for depreciation of the US Dollar was the weaker data on industrial output, which fell by 0.1%in January in monthly terms against the expected increase by 0.2%. Data regarding activity in the industrial sector was mixed. The NY Empire State index fell to 13.1 points in February from 17.7 points, while the Fed's Philadelphia index rose above expectations to 25.8 points from 22.2 points. Even the US job market data in the form of claims for benefits has not help to push USD higher so far.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. In general, the recent data package is another reason that USD is being still sold across the board. The market is now trying to bounce from the technical support at the level of 88.45 after a failed attempt to break through the black channel dynamic resistance around the level of 90.50.The market conditions are oversold and some kind of a bigger bounce is being expected. The next target is seen at the level of 89.37 - 89.63.

analytics5a8ace457f34f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 19/02/2018

Despite higher expectations of the interest rate hike by the FOMC, the US currency remains under selling pressure. The US Dollar is only temporarily supported by signals pointing to growing inflationary pressure in the form of the higher January reading of CPI and PPI inflation in the US. Last week's appreciation of the US Dollar has already been completely offset as the US Dollar index has hit the new lows this year and went below the 200-month average EMA on a monthly basis. On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair hit the new highs this year. The impulse for depreciation of the US Dollar was the weaker data on industrial output, which fell by 0.1%in January in monthly terms against the expected increase by 0.2%. Data regarding activity in the industrial sector was mixed. The NY Empire State index fell to 13.1 points in February from 17.7 points, while the Fed's Philadelphia index rose above expectations to 25.8 points from 22.2 points. Even the US job market data in the form of claims for benefits has not help to push USD higher so far.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. In general, the recent data package is another reason that USD is being still sold across the board. The market is now trying to bounce from the technical support at the level of 88.45 after a failed attempt to break through the black channel dynamic resistance around the level of 90.50.The market conditions are oversold and some kind of a bigger bounce is being expected. The next target is seen at the level of 89.37 - 89.63.

analytics5a8ace457f34f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com