The week starts with positive expectations, CAD consolidates, and JPY may continue to decline

US stock exchanges closed in positive territory after the release of employment data for October, the dollar made an attempt to win back some of the losses after the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, and the mixed Asian exchanges are trading on Monday morning. Meanwhile, the Chinese Shanghai Composite is gaining more than 0.5%, while the Nikkei is in the red zone, which indicates an increase in positiveness, a slight decrease in tension and, in general, a decrease in demand for defensive assets.

Moreover, the labor market report ended up better than expected. 128 thousand new jobs were created with a forecast of 89 thousand. The unemployment rate did not change, but the growth rate of the average wage was still slightly below expectations - 0.2% mom, which corresponds to 3% yoy. In general, the report did not give any guidance as to whether the Fed will reduce the rate in December.

As for the production ISM, the expected rollback, after the failure in September, did not happen. On the other hand, the index rose from 47.8p to 48.3p, remaining below 50p, which indicates the continuation of decline, and there is no reason to expect changes in the coming months.

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The ISM dynamics indicate that the Trump administration needs to conclude a trade agreement with China more than China, which has long been preparing to reduce global demand. A thorough and hassle-free restructuring of the economy with an emphasis on domestic demand is bearing fruit - the PMI Caixin / Markit index in production rose to 51.7p, which is the highest since February 2017, while the new orders subindex reached a maximum since January 2013, taking into account the growth rate exports remain not the highest, the conclusion is inevitable that domestic demand in China is growing steadily, which means that the Chinese market for US companies is more valuable than the declining US market for China.

Today, a report on production orders in September will be published, an inevitable decline. On Tuesday, the main event is the ISM report on the services sector, only strong growth can support the dollar.

USD/CAD

The results of the October labor market report may be higher than expected since the October 21 elections required the involvement of nearly 300,000 workers across the country, and some of them will be included in the statistics. Since this effect is expected, the high data on employment in Canada, which will be published on Friday November 8, is unlikely to lead to an increase in the rate of the loonie.

USD/CAD is static and more prone to consolidation than to pronounced movement. The probability of retesting 1.30 in the short term is not high, while the resistance at 1.3175 and 1.3207, with growth, is more logical to sell, since 1.30 is still more likely to move by the end of the year.

USD/JPY

Despite the increase in sales tax from 8% to 10% on October 1, the readings of Japanese inflation show no signs of growth. The October data came out lower, and therefore, the Bank of Japan still faces the challenge of preserving its face and hoping that a tax increase will produce results in the near future.

A similar measure taken 5 years ago, when the sales tax was increased from 5 to 8%, led to a surge in inflation, but at this stage, there is nothing like it.

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Forecasts on the main releases of the current week are pessimistic. The manufacturing PMI of Jibun Bank is expected to drop to 50p in October and data on the dynamics of average wages and household expenses will be published on Thursday. The changes will show whether it is worth counting on rising inflation or the idea of raising the sales tax will be unsuccessful.

On Friday, the yen strengthened slightly amid reports that China doubts the possibility of a long-term trade deal with the United States. At the same time, the general trend towards a decrease in tension remains, therefore, support at 107.87 looks stable and growth is more likely. The yen will move to the resistance zone 109.26 / 30 with a target of 111.00 / 50. From a technical point of view, this target is in the middle of the rising channel and cannot be ignored.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 04/11/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA) received inquiries from 21 cryptocurrency exchanges in order to obtain a license in accordance with the Virtual Financial Assets (VFA) Act.

According to the official announcement of 21 exchanges, there are 34 potential VFA service providers who have sent letters of intent to the Maltese financial regulator to obtain a license for VFA services.

MFSA clarified that cryptocurrency suppliers up to October 31 acted in accordance with the transitional provisions set out in Art. 62 of the VFA Act. These companies will now need to apply for authorization at MFSA to continue operations in or from Malta.

According to media publications, applicants will be classified at MFSA's discretion into one of four categories that specify the requirements of license holders. The regulator also plans to enforce administrative penalties for compliance violations.

In an official announcement, MFSA stated that it would shortly contact applicants to arrange an initial meeting. After the meeting, applicants will have 60 days to submit a full application back to the authority.

According to the announcement, 30 applications for registration of VFA agents were received by MFSA, of which 18 were registered. The list of registered agents is available on the MFSA website.

The VFA Act is part of the legislation related to Blockchain technology adopted in July 2018 together with the Malta Digital Innovation Authority Act and the Innovative Technological Arrangement and Services Act. In September, MFSA published its strategic plan, claiming that it will actively monitor and manage the business risk associated with cryptocurrency companies.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair keeps trading close to the recent lows made by the corrective down move last week and did not improve the situation during the weekend. The market is making lower highs, so the bearish pressure might be clear now and confirmed by the recent Pin Bar and Harami candlestick patterns on the H4 timeframe chart. The market continues a corrective cycle with a low made at the level of $172.91, but as long as ETH/USD trades above the level of $163.11 there is still a chance for another impulsive wave up. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $193.52 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $179.94. The key technical support is located at the level of $172.91.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $203.38

WR2 - $197.53

WR1 - $186.87

Weekly Pivot - $181.92

WS1 - $171.26

WS2 - $165.71

WS3 - $155.07

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 04/11/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Following the recent imposition of limits on purchases in US dollars, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCA) announced that citizens are forbidden to use credit cards to buy Bitcoins or other cryptocurrencies.

The messages were published in a communication covering several industries in which the use of credit cards has been restricted or banned. The section about cryptocurrency reads:

"Purchasing Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies: It is forbidden to buy BTC using this payment method. The only remaining alternative to this investment is to do it with money transferred from a bank account."

It is unclear whether the rules apply only to credit cards or whether they include debit and prepaid cards.

BCA claims that these measures are key to maintaining the country's foreign reserves. According to experts, the central bank intends to block the entry of dollars into the country, trying to have stronger control.

This is due to BCA's move earlier this week, where the amount of US dollars that Argentine citizens could buy every month was limited. The maximum amount has been reduced from $ 10,000 to just $ 200.

Technical Overview:

The BTC/USD pair technical picture did not change too much during the weekend as the lack of volatility is making the market to move sideways. The price is locked in a narrow range between the levels of $9,046 - $9,263 and the momentum is neutral on the H4 timeframe chart. The zone from $9,645 to $10,278 is still a sell zone, where most of the sell orders have entered the market. The immediate support is seen at the level of $8,925.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,530

WR2 - $10,201

WR1 - $9,572

Weekly Pivot - $9,189

WS1 - $8,589

WS2 - $8,251

WS3 - $7,587

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 04/11/2019

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair keeps trading around the level of 1.2962, which is just above the upper Flag price pattern line. The bulls are still trying to resume the uptrend, but the market conditions are now clearly overbought and the momentum is barely hanging above its fifty levels. If bulls fail to continue the rally towards the high located at the level of 1.3012 and above, then the bear will push the price towards the key short-term technical support located at the level of 1.2783.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3169

WR2 - 1.3078

WR1 - 1.3005

Weekly Pivot - 1.2910

WS1 - 1.2842

WS2 - 1.2734

WS3 - 1.2668

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.3000 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 04/11/2019

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has got back to the main ascending channel and, despite the overbought market conditions, the price is hovering close to the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.1179. The momentum remains strong and positive, so a breakout higher is expected with a target seen at the level of 1.1232 - 1.1250 zones. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1126, 1.1109 and 1.1091. Only a clear breakout below the level of 1.1075 would put bears in the control of the price.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1310

WR2 - 1.1242

WR1 - 1.1209

Weekly Pivot - 1.1144

WS1 - 1.1116

WS2 - 1.1042

WS3 - 1.1010

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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AUD/USD. Preview of the November meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia

The penultimate meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held tomorrow. On the eve of this event, the pair AUD/USD crept into the area of its key resistance level of 0.7000, and now trading at the 69th figure. In July, the "Aussie" "dived" under this target, and since then, buyers can not return above this value. Bulls were selected several times in the specified price area, but in each case they failed. However, today, the bulls of the pair have every chance to gain a foothold in the 70th figure if the RBA members surprise the market with a "hawkish" mood. Although the probability of such a scenario is quite small.

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Here, it is necessary to make a small divergence, recalling the reasons for the growth of the Australian dollar in October. The upward dynamics of AUD/USD was due, firstly, to the release of data on the growth of the Australian labor market, and secondly, to the weakness of the US currency. On the other hand, Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 5.2%, and the increase in the number of employees amounted to almost 15 thousand, mainly due to full employment (this component jumped by 26 thousand), while part-time employment, on the contrary, showed a negative trend, decreasing by 11.4 thousand.

However, the figures themselves did not play a decisive role - the trend itself is important here, especially in light of the previous statements by the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe. In one of his speeches, the head of the Australian regulator expressed the opinion that the unemployment rate should ideally be reduced to 4.5% - only in this case, according to Lowe, the labor market will put upward pressure on wages. In other words, the head of the RBA increased the importance of data on the labor market, linking the dynamics of these indicators with the growth of inflation indicators.

Speaking last week, Philip Lowe voiced this rhetoric again, while allowing the option of lowering rates in the near future. He said that the regulator is ready to further soften monetary policy, as these steps help the economy and support a "soft" turning point in economic growth. In addition, he assured market participants that rates would remain low for a "long period" of time, but at the same time, he ruled out the option of negative rates.

It would seem that amid such rhetoric, the Australian dollar should have collapsed throughout the market, since the head of the RBA actually gave a "green light" to the rate cut. However, the market reaction was the opposite - the AUD/USD pair rose 150 points in a few days. Such an "abnormal" reaction is explained by the fact that Lowe also focused on the side effects of low interest rates. He acknowledged that their decline "brings harm and damage to those people who rely on interest income." Also, the head of the RBA said that under ideal conditions, the growth of key economic indicators should be due to improved investment environment, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms, and not only due to the actions of the Central Bank. Such remarks reassured investors, although in fact, Lowe did not rule out the possibility of lowering the rate by the end of this year.

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Today, the probability of a rate cut at the November meeting of the RBA is 40/60 - the market is more likely to see the regulator take a wait-and-see position, and if there are any such intentions, it will announce easing of monetary policy at the December meeting. But even cautious steps of a verbal nature can undermine the position of the "Aussie" It is likely that Philip Lowe will declare that the rate cut should stimulate economic growth again to a level sufficient to reduce unemployment to 4.5%. And in this case, the focus of the market will shift to the Australian labor market again. If Lowe, nevertheless, takes a wait-and-see position, the pair has every chance to test the level of 0.7000 having consolidated in the region of the 70th figure. The AUD/USD bulls will indicate the priority of the upward movement.

At the moment, the price is at 0.6920, and the Ichimoku indicator has formed a bullish signal "Parade of lines" on the daily chart. This suggests that the pair AUD/USD has the potential for its further recovery, unless fears of a decline in the RBA interest rate in December return to the market. On the weekly chart, the pair consolidated above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. The price is also above the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, which are located under the Kumo cloud, thus forming the Golden Cross signal, which signals an increased possibility of changing the trend from down to up. The closest resistance level is at 0.7010 - this is the lower border of the Kumo cloud, which coincides with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on W1.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 4, 2019

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GBP/JPY continues to trade in a very narrow range, indicating a possible minor triangle developing. If this is the case, we could see a final dip closer to 137.74 with an outside chance of a deeper corrective decline towards 135.67 before tuning higher again towards 144.98.

Only a direct break above minor resistance at 140.74 will indicate a premature low being in place and the rally higher towards 144.98 being in force.

R3: 141.15

R2: 141.12

R1: 140.74

Pivot: 140.21

S1: 139.74

S2: 139.26

S3: 139.07

Trading recommendation:

We will buy 50% GBP at 137.85 and 50% at 135.87 or we will buy 100% upon a break above 140.74

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Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for November 4. Boris Johnson is against any new referendums.

EUR / USD

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November 1 ended for the pair EUR / USD with a minimum increase, only by 10 basis points. Thus, the construction of the proposed wave C continues with targets located near the calculated levels of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci. If the current wave marking is correct, then the instrument will definitely go beyond the peak of wave a. On the other hand, any unsuccessful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level can lead not only to the quotes moving away from the reached highs, but also to the construction of a new donward trend section.

Fundamental component:

The news background on Friday was very strong. Nevertheless, market activity left much to be desired. Markets did not pay attention to those economic reports that were released in America on November 1 and for a good reason since there really was something to pay attention to. Take the report on Nonfarm Payrolls, which is considered the most important indicator of the state of the US economy. The forecast was exceeded by as much as 29K, which would already be enough at any other time for the demand for the US dollar to grow significantly. However, since this was the only report that was on the side of the dollar, the euro still added to the price at the end of the day. Meanwhile, America's unemployment rate rose to 3.6%. Average wages rose by 3.0% y / y, but only by 0.2% m / m. And the index reflecting business activity in the production of ISM was at around 48.3, formally improved compared with August, but in fact continues to indicate a slowdown in America's industry. Thus, a slight increase in the euro is logical. The fact that it was extremely small may indirectly indicate a weakening of market intentions to buy the euro-dollar instrument further.

Purchase goals:

1.1208 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1286 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0879 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair continues to build a new upward wave set and completed the construction of wave b. I recommend buying the instrument now, as the construction of the rising wave continues. Its goals are located near the estimated levels of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci, which is equivalent to 1.1208 and 1.1286. A failed attempt to break through any of them may indicate the completion of wave c.

GBP / USD

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On November 1, the GBP / USD pair gained 5 basis points. However, it did not reached the level of 127.2% Fibonacci, and now, I expect the instrument to decline in the direction of the level of 100.0% Fibonacci, as the prerequisites and grounds for breaking the level of 127.2 % not available. If wave 3 or C is really completed, then at least three waves down should be built now, two of which are already being traced on the chart. Thus, a decline to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% will indicate the construction of wave c as part of the future 4 . A successful attempt to break through the future at a level of 100.0% will indicate a very probable transition of the instrument to building wave 3 in the future 1 of a new bearish trend section.

Fundamental component:

The news background on Friday for the pound came down to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, as well as the pre-election comments of representatives of many parties, as well as Boris Johnson himself. The current Prime Minister apologized for not being able to withdraw the country from the European Union, as he had promised earlier. In addition, Johnson also expressed the hope that the new parliament would accept his version of the agreement with the European Union after December 12. At the same time, he will have to fight in the future immediately against two brewing referendums, the very fact of which reflects the best possible lack of any common opinion among the countries that are still part of the United Kingdom. Brexit could be a break in relations not only between the UK and the EU, but also between England and Scotland or, for example, Wales, not to mention Northern Ireland and Ireland, between which a physical border may still appear, which the inhabitants of the island obviously will not like. Scotland, on the other hand, announced its desire to leave the Kingdom once again, through a new referendum on independence. But Johnson has already stated that he will fight this initiative and will not allow it. He will also fight with the Labor Party's initiative to hold a second referendum, which may even end with the cancellation of Brexit. For the British Prime Minister, such a scenario is not acceptable.

Sales goals:

1.2191 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2986 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3202 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument supposedly completed the construction of the upward trend section. Thus, only a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a complication of the alleged wave 3 or C and become the basis for new purchases of the instrument. I recommend looking in the direction of sales after a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2812 (100.0% Fibonacci).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 4, 2019

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The dip to 120.26 could be enough to complete the correction in red wave ii if this the case, then a break above minor resistance at 121.26 should be seen soon for a continuation higher towards 124.64 and likely even much higher.

That said, we could see a final dip closer to our ideal target at 119.87, but time is running out for that outcome.

R3: 121.78

R2: 121.48

R1: 121.26

Pivot: 120.83

S1: 120.26

S2: 120.00

S3: 119.87

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.00.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 4th. Euro buyers still have a chance to continue the growth but we need

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Friday's data on the US labor market led to the strengthening of the dollar, but a very weak report indicating a reduction in manufacturing activity in the US quickly returned the euro to the buyers market. Now, trading is above the intermediate support of 1.1158, and the formation of a false breakdown at this level will be a signal to buy EUR/USD. However, the more important task of the bulls, which will allow us to talk about the continuation of the upward trend, will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the maximum of 1.1180, since only its breakdown will open a direct path for the euro to new levels of 1.1226 and 1.1289, where I recommend taking the profits. If the pressure on the pair returns, which is likely to happen after today's weak data on manufacturing activity in the eurozone, a breakthrough of the level of 1.1158 will push the pair into the support area of 1.129, from where it is possible to break long positions provided a false breakdown. I recommend buying immediately for a rebound only from a larger area of support for this week – 1.1082.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers need to hold the level of 1.1180, the formation of a false breakdown will be the first signal to open short positions. The target will be the intermediate support of 1.1158, but the only consolidation below this range will push EUR/USD even lower, to the area of the minimum of 1.129, where I recommend taking the profits. The focus of euro sellers will be on the release of reports on manufacturing activity in Italy, France, and the eurozone. Weak indicators, which are predicted by economists, will push the pair even lower in the area of 1.1082. In the case of the euro's growth in the first half of the day above the resistance of 1.1180, it is best to return to short positions on the rebound from the highs of 1.1226 and 1.1289.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger Bands

To continue the growth, a breakthrough in the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1185 is needed. The downward movement may be limited to the lower level around 1.1145.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Control zones GBPUSD 11/04/19

The close of trading in October occurred far beyond the monthly average progress. The main direction of trading is falling. Despite the fact that the upward movement is a medium-term impulse, the probability of a return to the level of 1.2725 is 90%. Thus, this makes it possible to consider the decline as the basis for building a trading plan.

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It is important to find the entry point by a simple pattern. Today, a false breakdown of the Friday extremum can become such a pattern.

An alternative model will be developed if the closing of today's trading occurs above the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2999-1.2980. This will indicate the continuation of the upward impulse. It is not profitable to buy from the current levels, as the probability of a downward corrective movement to return to the monthly short-term is too high. Purchases, in turn, will become profitable after the decline to Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.2820-1.2801.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on November 4th. Weak US data did not lead to a rise in the pound. Another signal

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Friday's data on the US labor market and a weak report on manufacturing activity on the background of a weakening US dollar did not cause buyers' interest in the British pound, which indicates a possible downward correction of the pair at the beginning of this month. The lack of Brexit news continues to hold back bulls on the pound. The first signal to buy today will be a breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2971, which will lead to the demolition of stop orders of sellers and further growth of the pair on the trend. A breakthrough of the maximum of 1.3017 opens a direct path to new resistance in the area of 1.3074 and 1.3125, where I recommend taking the profits. In the case of a decline in the pound, the hope for growth is still left by the support of 1.2925, but it is best to open long positions from there only after the formation of a false breakdown. I recommend buying GBP/USD immediately on the rebound only from the support of 1.2875.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Important fundamental data are not expected to be released today, so it will be possible to talk about a clear continuation of the bull market only after the breakout of monthly highs, which the bears will try to prevent. The formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.2971 will be the first signal to open short positions, and the main task of sellers will be to return the pair to the support of 1.2925. Only in this scenario can we expect a larger downward correction in the area of lows 1.2875 and 1.2807, where I recommend taking the profit. Any positive news on Brexit could lead to a rise in GBP/USD above the resistance of 1.2971. In this case, it is best to look at short positions after updating the last month's high around 1.3017 or sell for a rebound from the resistance of 1.3074.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible decline in the pound in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.2925 will increase pressure on the pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 4, 2019

EUR/USD

Last Friday, data on US employment came out: in the non-agricultural sector in October, 128 thousand jobs were created against the expectations of 89 thousand, the September figure was revised to increase from 136 thousand to 180 thousand, the share of economically active population increased from 63.2% to 62.3%, due to which the unemployment rate rose slightly to 7.0% from 6.9%. Also, the October index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in October, according to ISM, increased from 47.8 to 48.3, and construction costs in September increased by 0.5% against the expectation of 0.2%. By the first reaction to these data, the euro lost about 30 points, but then buyers got the upper hand and the euro closed the day with a growth of 12 points. The data sharply lowered market expectations for lower rates in December – from 22% to 12%, gold rose by 0.12%, copper by 0.91%, oil by 3.67%, S&P500 +0.97%. Increased risk appetite on the face.

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In the current situation, the growth of the euro does not hold anything back, but the technical nature of the rise warns of a possible reversal. On the daily chart, this sign is the probability of divergence formation on the Marlin oscillator. For its readiness, the price can easily rise to 1.1215 (Fibonacci level of 100.0%) or 1.1250 (maximum of August 6).

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As seen on the four-hour chart, the price is fixed above the MACD indicator line, the Marlin oscillator is growing. We are waiting for the price at the levels of 1.1215 and 1.1250. Overcoming the latter opens a higher target of 1.1295 (August 2018 minimum). But in this case, the divergence will not take place and the euro may grow in the medium term.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on November 4, 2019

GBP/USD

By Monday morning, the situation on the market for the British pound remains with the closing of Thursday last week – quotes at the closing level on October 31. In general, the pound is in a very wide neutral range of 1.2750-1.3040 with the intention to go down rather than up, as the Marlin oscillator has been declining for a long time.

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As seen on the four-hour chart, the price is located between the balance lines and the MACD, the Marlin decreases, but without advancing the price and remains in the zone of positive trend. The nearest movement may be the price growth to the MACD line at 1.3000 to work it out before a possible reversal or fixing it to continue growth. In this case, the first target will be the level of 1.3040.

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The first support in a bearish scenario will be the level of the nearest lows of 1.2840, leaving under which opens the target of 1.2750.

Today, the index of business activity in the construction sector in the UK for October is expected to increase the index from 43.3 to 44.3, and the volume of factory orders in the US for September is projected to decline by -0.5% after August -0.1%. As a result, we expect the pound to rise to the nearest target of 1.3000.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on November 4, 2019

AUD/USD

This morning, the Australian dollar managed to penetrate the system of protection against the values of the channel with a growing oscillator. The signal line of the indicator develops in the growing channel itself, and the growth trend is a minimum of 0.6964 on May 6 and June 6. After consolidation above the level, it is possible to continue growth to the level of 0.7000.

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In the four-hour chart, the situation is also growing – the price is above the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is growing in the zone of a positive trend.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, November 04,2019

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When the European market opens, such economic data as Sentix Investor Confidence, Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, and Spanish Manufacturing PMI will be released. The US will publish such economic data as Loan Officer Survey and Factory Orders m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Breakout BUY Level: 1.1215. Strong Resistance:1.1209. Original Resistance: 1.1198. Inner Sell Area: 1.1187.Target Inner Area: 1.1161. Inner Buy Area: 1.1135. Original Support: 1.1124. Strong Support: 1.1113. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1107. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, November 04,2019

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Today Japan will not release any economic data, while the US will publish such economic data as Loan Officer Survey and Factory Orders m/m. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:108.79. Resistance. 2:108.59. Resistance. 1:108.37. Support. 1:108.11. Support. 2:107.90. Support. 3:107.68. (Disclaimer)

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AUDUSD pullback below resistance

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Entry: 0.69300

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.6880

Why it's good : 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

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USDJPY to reach 1st support at 107.69, potential to bounce!

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on November 4

Forecast for November 4:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1251, 1.1212, 1.1198, 1.1181, 1.1140, 1.1123, 1.1096 and 1.1072. Here, the price issued a pronounced medium-term initial conditions for the top of October 29. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1181. In this case, the target is 1.1198. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1198 - 1.1212. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1251, expressed movement to which, is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1212.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range 1.1140 - 1.1123. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1096. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of October 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1181 Take profit: 1.1198

Buy: 1.1212 Take profit: 1.1250

Sell: 1.1140 Take profit: 1.1125

Sell: 1.1120 Take profit: 1.1098

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3148, 1.3102, 1.3037, 1.2986, 1.2910, 1.2868 and 1.2804. Here, we are following the initial conditions for the top of October 29. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2986. In this case, the target is 1.3037. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3040 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3102. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3148. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2910 - 1.2868. Hence, the high probability of a reversal to the top and a breakdown of the level of 1.2868 will lead to the development of a downward trend. In this case, the potential target is 1.2804.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 29

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2986 Take profit: 1.3035

Buy: 1.3040 Take profit: 1.3102

Sell: 1.2910 Take profit: 1.2870

Sell: 1.2865 Take profit: 1.2805

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9910, 0.9892, 0.9879, 0.9857, 0.9837, 0.9822 and 0.9798. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of October 28. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9855. In this case, the target is 0.9837. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9837 - 0.9822. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9798. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9879 - 0.9892. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9910. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of October 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9879 Take profit: 0.9890

Buy : 0.9893 Take profit: 0.9910

Sell: 0.9855 Take profit: 0.9838

Sell: 0.9835 Take profit: 0.9822

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.54, 108.32, 108.15, 107.88, 107.62, 107.46 and 107.14. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of October 30. At the moment, the price is in correction. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.88. In this case, the target is 107.62. Price consolidation is in the range of 107.62 - 107.46. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 107.14. Upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 108.15 - 108.32. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 108.53. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend: the downward cycle of October 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.15 Take profit: 108.30

Buy : 108.33 Take profit: 108.52

Sell: 107.86 Take profit: 107.62

Sell: 107.46 Take profit: 107.15

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3268, 1.3246, 1.3208, 1.3185, 1.3143, 1.3124 and 1.3101. Here, the price forms the long-term initial conditions for the upward cycle of October 29. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 1.3185 - 1.3208. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.3246. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3268. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3143 - 1.3124. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3101. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of October 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3185 Take profit: 1.3206

Buy : 1.3209 Take profit: 1.3246

Sell: 1.3143 Take profit: 1.3126

Sell: 1.3122 Take profit: 1.3101

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6959, 0.6938, 0.6928, 0.6910, 0.6888, 0.6874 and 0.6854. Here, we are following the development of the local upward cycle of October 28. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6910. In this case, the target is 0.6928. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6928 - 0.6938. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6959. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6888 - 0.6874. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6854. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of October 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6910 Take profit: 0.6928

Buy: 0.6938 Take profit: 0.6959

Sell : 0.6888 Take profit : 0.6875

Sell: 0.6873 Take profit: 0.6855

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.46, 121.17, 121.00, 120.74, 120.22, 119.83, 119.55 and 119.38. Here, we monitor the downward potential of October 30. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 120.22. In this case, the first goal is 119.83, before this value, we expect expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle. The breakdown of the level of 119.80 will lead to the development of the cycle. In this case, the goal is 119.55. Price consolidation is in the range of 119.55 - 119.38.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 120.74 - 121.00, The range of 121.00 - 121.17 is the key support for the descending structure of October 30. Its passage at a price will lead to the development of an upward trend. Here, the goal is 121.46.

The main trend is the downward potential of October 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 121.18 Take profit: 121.44

Sell: 120.20 Take profit: 119.85

Sell: 119.80 Take profit: 119.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 141.23, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, the price is still in the equilibrium. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.23. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8, the formation of potential for the downward movement of October 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75

Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

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GBPUSD approaching support, potential bounce!

Entry: 1.29057

Why is it good: horizontal pullback support, 100% fibonacci extension, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.28798

Why is it good: 50% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.29672

Why is it good: 78.6% fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance

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Control zones EURUSD 11/04/19

At the end of last week, the defining resistance was the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.1161-1.1153. At the same time, the closing of trading on Friday occurred above this zone. This opens up opportunities for further growth of the pair to weekly control zone 1.1249-1.1233. The euro purchases come to the fore, however, favorable prices are located just below the level of 1.1134.

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At the moment, the pair is trading near the maximum of the last month, which increases the possibility of the proposal and the continuation of the formation of the accumulation zone.

Work within the accumulation zone will be relevant until the closure of one of the active sessions occurs above the weekly maximum. If this happens, then the growth rate will increase and a weekly test will take one to two days. In the event of a major offer after updating the monthly maximum, the target will be the level of 1.1134, where a new priority will be determined.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones AUDUSD 11/4/19

On Thursday, the pair tested the weekly control zone 0.6936-0.6924, which led to a halt in growth. The defining support is the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 0.6871-0.6865. As long as the pair is trading above the specified zone, the bullish movement will remain an impulse. On the other hand, purchasing with the WCZ 1/2 test is profitable, since the probability of updating the November maximum is 75%.

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Work between the two control zones will allow to form a flat range. This will provide an opportunity to work from weekly extremes.

An alternative model will be developed if the closure of one of the next American sessions occurs below the Weekly Control Zone 1/2. This will indicate the completion of the upward impulse phase and will allow you to search for sales after the formation of the correctional model. Thus, the probability of implementing this model is 25%.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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