Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR/USD on March 6, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Before the news today, the market may begin to move down from the upper fractal 1.1241 (red dashed line) with the target 1.1181, a retracement level of 14.6% (blue dashed line). Much will depend on the news. When the news is released, as per forecast, from the pullback level of 14.6% equivalent to 1.1181 (red dotted line), it is possible to move up.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, from the upper fractal 1.1241 (red dashed line) the price may start moving down with the target 1.1181, a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is from a retracement level of 14.6% equivalent to 1.1181 (blue dashed line), work down with a target of 1.1139, a retracement level of 23.6% (blue dashed line).

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 03/06/2020 and trading recommendation

The lack of clarity about how the upcoming Board meeting of the European Central Bank may end is pushing the single European currency up. It seems that the decision of the Federal Reserve System to urgently reduce the refinancing rate from 1.75% to 1.25%, forcing the European Central Bank, and other central banks, to also lower its interest rates. And for at least twenty-four hours, no one had any doubt that this would be the case. However, the rather vague position of Christine Lagarde's subordinates on this issue makes us think that the European Central Bank may take a wait-and-see position, and the decision to lower interest rates will be made not on March 12, but somewhat later. Consequently, the dollar is already under attack, since the return on investments in it only decreases, not in the single European currency. Thus, suspicions that this is exactly what the European Central Bank will do contribute to the strong growth of the single European currency.

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However, yesterday's US statistics clearly did not contribute to the strengthening of the dollar. Apparently, it did a bit by weakening the dollar. In particular, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by 4 thousand. Moreover, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 3 thousand, but the number of repeated ones increased by 7 thousand. But what is more important is the fact that the volume production orders decreased by 0.5%, while the forecast was a decline of 0.3%. Well, if orders are reduced, then the industry will not grow from anything, which means that its decline will continue.

Factory Order Volume (United States):

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Thus, today, the focus is on the report of the United States Department of Labor. The contents of which are unlikely to help the dollar, although the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. However, it is expected that 165 thousand new jobs were created outside agriculture, against 225 thousand in the previous month. Well, this is a clear slowdown; therefore, the situation on the labor market may somewhat deteriorate soon. But more importantly, the growth rate of average hourly wages should slow down from 3.1% to 2.9%. This already suggests that we should expect a decrease in consumer activity, and retail sales.

The number of new jobs created outside agriculture (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the stagnation within 1.1100 / 1.1180 served to further accelerate, where the frame of 1.1180 was broken and the quote went to the maximum of the last correction of 1.1240. In fact, the second point of 1.1240 served as a kind of resistance in the area where a small stagnation of 1.1228 / 1.1248 was formed.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see an almost a single upward move of more than 450 points, where the rate of growth is several times higher than the rate of decline. Such rapid activity overheats the market, where the consequences will come sooner or later.

It is likely to assume that the external background will continue to put pressure on the market, where local surges are not an exemption. In regards to fluctuations, a temporary stagnation of 1.1228 / 1.1248 can be taken, working for a local surge outside its boundaries. After which, we have a report from the Ministry of Labor, where, in case of coincidence of expectations, the dollar will continue to lose its position aside 1.1300.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments preserved a buy signal due to the rapid growth.

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Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 6

Economic calendar (Universal time)

On the first Friday of the month, the main attention in the economic calendar is focused on indicators from the United States: the publication of the data on unemployment rate and the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector is expected at 13:30 UTC+00. Today is no exception.

EUR / USD

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The daily cloud worked as reliable support after the breakdown. The players to decline failed to reach a significant restoration of positions, while the opponent, as expected, began testing the most important extreme of this section - 1.1214 (maximum current braking) and 1.1240 (previous maximum extreme of weekly and monthly correction). Now, consolidating above will be another good reason for a further reliable change in the downward trend. Today, we close the week and it is better to talk about new upward prospects on Monday. At the same time, supports today at 1.1147 (the lower border of the weekly cloud) and 1.1111 (the daily cloud) can be noted.

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Having returned themselves to the central Pivot level, players on increase continued their upward movement, indicating new highs. The advantage now on H1 belongs entirely to the players on the increase. The upward reference points within the day are the resistance of the classic Pivot levels 1.1282 (R1) - 1.1326 (R2) - 1.1407 (R3). The key support for the lower halves and the main guidelines for the development of the correctional decline today are at 1.1201 (central Pivot level) and 1.1128 (weekly long-term trend).

GBP / USD

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The pair performed an upward correction to the daily medium-term trend (1.2967), now strengthened by weekly levels of 1.2967 (Tenkan) - 1.3010 (Fibo Kijun). As a result, slow down and rebound formation are possible in the near future. The closest support area in this situation is 1.2910 (daily Fibo Kijun) - 1.2882 (weekly Fibo Kijun) - 1.2854 (weekly Kijun).

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Everything remains the same at the lower time intervals. The players to increase retain their advantage and continue to rise. The resistances of the classic Pivot levels, which serve as daily reference points are located today at 1.2993 - 1.3033 - 1.3100. The nearest important support is the central Pivot level (1.2926). Now, consolidation below will allow counting on further strengthening of the bearish sentiment, but in order to change the balance of power, players to decrease will need to perform a fairly effective decrease. Its main reference will be the weekly long-term trend (1.2835) and intermediate support can be noted at 1.2886 (S1).

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)

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EUR/USD: The euro may reach the area of the 13th figure. However, ahead is the report on the employment rate in the US non-agricultural

The data released yesterday pertaining to the US economy has triggered another boost in the growth of risky assets, especially in the euro and the pound. On the other hand, the report on US unemployment benefits showed a decrease for the first time, while other indicators, especially those related to the manufacturing sector, were in a worse position than expected. Stock indexes were also under pressure, and the price of gold has increased.

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According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of February 23-29 has fallen by 3,000. conomists had expected it to be 215,000, but it settled to 216,000 instead. As a result, the 4-week moving average rose by 3,250 and finally to 213,000. Meanwhile, as for the secondary applications for the period of February 16 to 22, the number has increased by 7,000 and determined to 1.729 million.

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More important reports pertaining to the state of the US labor market will be released today. More important reports pertaining to the state of the US labor market will be released today. The unemployment rate, which is expected to fall to 3.5%, will be published, along with the employment rate in the non-agricultural sector, which is expected to increase by 175,000 in February, after its 225,000 in January this year. If the figures are worse than the forecasts of economists, the demand for the euro and the pound will lessen. Nevertheless, you should pay attention to the fact that big players can use this to fix profit after the growth recorded from February 20, which may lead to the decline of EUR / USD amidst bad reports.

The pressure that the dollar felt yesterday was caused by the data on the US labor productivity in the 4th quarter of this year, which has increased less significantly than expected. The US Department of Labor reported that labor productivity outside of US agriculture increased by only 1.2% per annum in the 4th quarter of 2019, as compared to its data on the 3rd quarter. Initially, an increase of 1.4% was reported, and economists had expected a growth of 1.3%. Now, given the revision of the indicator, we can classify US 'economic growth this year as weak, because compared to the same period in 2018, productivity in the 4th quarter increased by 1.8%. As for labor costs, they have grown less actively, as the indicator was also revised downwards to 0.9% per annum, while earlier reports showed an increase of 1.4%.

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Weak orders on manufactured goods in the US also point to the sector's continued problems caused by the spread of the coronavirus. Weak orders on manufactured goods in the US also point to the sector's continued problems caused by the spread of the coronavirus. Though the situation was not felt in January, the report of the US Department of Commerce indicated that compared to the previous month, orders were reduced by 0.5%. The major decline was observed in defense products, although if we exclude this indicator in the calculations, orders have increased by 1.3%. At the same time, against a preliminary estimate of 1.8%, data for December was revised up to 1.9%.

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Meanwhile, the Fed's speeches failed to calm the markets. Robert Kaplan said that the stock market is still at a relatively elevated level, and its volatility is expected to continue. As for the Fed's decisions, he said that it is too early to judge the outcome of the meeting in March, but lowering the rates only because of the threat of the spread of the coronavirus is not part of the Fed's plans.

In addition, John Williams, another fed official, noted that even though the coronavirus is an emerging risk for the economy, the US economic fundamentals remain at a fairly strong level, and that the start of 2020 is marked by a good momentum. According to him, the Fed is closely monitoring the economy and the financial markets, and they are ready to act as necessary.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the breakdown of the resistance level at 1.1240 will open the way to the new highs at the 13th figure, where the activity of the bulls will once again decrease. Do not forget though about the profit-taking that will likely happen, when the report on the number of employees in the non-agricultural sector of the United States is released. If risk assets decline, you can expect support in the area of 1.1190 and 1.1155.

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Coronavirus continues to rule the mood of investors (gold price may be adjusted downward as well as USD/CAD pair)

A new wave of panic mood collapsed the US stock market again, pulling down other global stock markets in Asia and Europe as well. The panic surrounding its impact on the global economy seems to have reached its peak. It continues for the second week now, with a slight upward roll in between weeks.

As we mentioned earlier, the main reason for this phenomenon was simply an unprecedented information attack on the minds of investors and ordinary people on the issue of coronavirus from the world's media. This problem is extremely inflated, although, in truth, the death rate from this scourge is significantly lower than from a simple flu. However, investors, frightened by the media about the spread of this infection around the world, are dumping risky assets, since they believe, and not unreasonably, that it is panic, and not the infection itself, that will have a significant negative impact on the growth of the world economy.

In the wake of another collapse in the United States, the currency market reacted in the usual way which is by weakening the US dollar against the "safe haven" currencies: Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, as well as other major currencies, with the exception of the Australian and Canadian ones. Against this background, the fall in the yield of American treasuries has resumed. Thus, the benchmark yield of 10-year-old traders at the time of writing is declining by 9.56% to the level of 0.837%. What is interesting is that such values were not reached even in the critical year of 2008, after the beginning of the latest global crisis. This confirms once again that the reaction of the markets to the problem overblown by the media is inadequate and overblown.

It can be agreed that there has been a decline in business activity in China, Europe and America, but it was the result of panic again, thereby closing the circle. And the Fed, yielding to these sentiments, has only increased these fears with its decision this week to cut interest rates by 0.50%.

Of course, on this wave, the price of gold gains support again, which rushed in the spot market to the local maximum reached on 24.02.

Assessing the entire emerging situation in the markets, we believe that the dynamics of the currency market, and not only it, will fully remain captive to the topic of the coronavirus and its impact on its spread and effect on the global economy. We believe that in a situation of extreme panic, the US dollar, as well as the currencies of emerging economies, as well as commodity currencies will remain under negative influence.

Today, US employment data will be released. We believe that even if they turn out to be better than expected, this is unlikely to lead to a noticeable rebound in the dollar, since the markets expect another decline again in the Federal Reserve's interest rates already at a regular bank meeting this month.

Forecast of the day:

The price of gold is above the level of 1666.90. If the data on the number of new jobs, as well as the level of average wages in America are higher than expected, this could lead to a local decline in quotes by 1645.60 in the wake of profit taking.

The USD/CAD pair is consolidating above the level of 1.3380 in anticipation of the result of the meeting between OPEC and Russia on another decline in crude oil production in order to maintain prices for black gold. If consensus is reached on this issue and profit taking begins in the markets, we expect the pair to decline to the level of 1.3315 after breaking through the support level of 1.3380.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 06/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

China's Ministry of Education has just given permission to Chengdu University of Information Technology (CUIT) to open the country's first engineering faculty with Blockchain. Admission and registration will start this year, Chinanews says.

The first Blockchain engineering project in China aims to keep up with the ever-changing changes in the social economy and social informatization. The most important thing is to provide training for technical talent to meet the needs of the Blockchain industry.

Course design is designed to equip students with the skills of Blockchain system design, project management and implementation. The program will allow future Blockchain specialists to acquire skills in information and technology, basic Blockchain technology theory and methods for developing Blockchain projects.

Recently, reports have appeared that China has turned to Blockchain technology for medical data management, tracking virus supply materials and consulting public opinion to fight coronavirus. The Beijing tax office also officially announced that it will start blockchain invoicing in the city on March 2.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has managed to hit the key technical resistance zone located between the levels of $235.42 - $238.68 on increased momentum. Nevertheless, the price is still trading inside of the horizontal channel, so the bulls must break through the technical resistance zone in order to move even higher as the upper boundary of the channel is seen at the level of $244. The immediate support is seen at the level of $234.24 and if violated, then the Ethereum is most likely back to the horizontal range.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $315.76

WR2 - $294.92

WR1 - $247.66

Weekly Pivot - $227.96

WS1 - $180.28

WS2 - $159.27

WS3 - $113.10

Trading Recommendations:

The larger timeframe wave 2 corrective cycles are completed at the level of $115.05, so the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $146.94 is not violated. The current move up might be a wave 3 in developing in the overall long-term Elliott wave scenario and so far the top at the level of $288.01 might be wave 1 of the overall wave 3.

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Coronavirus is not the cause of the impending recession; EUR and GBP aim to continue growth before the publication of US

The US dollar is under strong pressure before the publication of the employment report for February. The decrease in the target range for the rate and interest on excess reserves of commercial banks did not lead to a massive collapse of the dollar, but changed its prospects. At the same time, the Fed resorted to such a remarkable step as an unscheduled meeting for the first time since the 2008 crisis, and although no new liquidity measures have been taken, they are expected in the near future.

On the other hand, yields on inflation-protected Tips, 5-year-old Tips, have declined drastically, increasing the probability of a strong decline in consumer inflation in February.

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Coronavirus is considered to be the reason, but in fact, the reality may look much worse - the virus is only an ideal disguise for emergency measures, and without which, it is impossible to delay the onset of a new global crisis.

In turn, the market will be searching for an answer to what additional measures should be taken to fight the recession until March 18, when the next scheduled meeting of the FOMC takes place. In the meantime, we must proceed from the fact that there are no reasons, neither economic or political, to get out of the panic that has confidently covered global markets.

EUR/USD

Despite the fact that the virus fully controls the news space and stock markets, it has not yet led to a slowdown in PMI in the eurozone. Moreover, production PMI in February increased to an annual maximum of 49.2. From this point of view, the situation in the eurozone compares favorably with the situation in the United States and especially in China, since the eurozone has already experienced a deep crisis in 2018/19, and the ECB has already taken a number of measures to stop it, while the Fed is just starting this way.

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In this regard, the eurozone is in a winning position, as is the euro. The demand for it increased not only because the mass exodus from the carry trade began, where the euro acted as the funding currency, but also because the comparison of the extent of the ECB and the Fed's reaction to the beginning of a new one crisis is not in favor of the latter.

In particular, inflation in the eurozone remains low. Core inflation in February increased to 1.2%, while the expectations for the inflation in the US are significantly lower than the current official level as we can see from the dynamics of TIPS bond yields. Thus, we can assume that the data in February will show a noticeable decline.

Nevertheless, even if the ECB continues to move behind the Fed in terms of the scale of measures taken, it is obvious that such measures will still be taken. After several statements by the ECB leaders this week, it is highly possible that at the next meeting, they will announce their readiness to provide additional liquidity in any form.

A more accurate picture will be provided by today's CFTC report, but in the meantime, we must proceed from the fact that the probability of further growth of EUR/USD is decreasing. The euro reached a maximum of 1.1239 from December last year, and despite the fact that the impulse is still strong, consolidation is more likely in anticipation of a further direction. The nearest resistance is at 1.1335 / 50, while support is at 1.1120 and 1.1180. So today, the euro will wait for the US employment report and we will determine the further direction only after that.

GBP/USD

The pound continues to be a captive of political alignment, as declining oil and a general increase in panic prevent it from realizing the planned growth. Nevertheless, on the basis of the estimated fair price, it is above the level of 1.32 as of Friday morning, that is, the lack of growth is a consequence of the general pressure on commodity currencies and falling oil.

The nearest resistance is at 1.2970. Its passage is expected, after which it will not be possible to talk about an upward reversal, although the increased probability of this growth is possible. Moreover, the UK PMI indices remained practically unchanged in February, while the construction sector showed strong growth from 48.8p to 52.6p. Still, the situation regarding trade negotiations with the EU is still unclear. According to the Prime Minister's spokesman, the first week of discussions between the EU and the UK was "constructive". Next Wednesday, the government will announce the budget for 2020, the level of anxiety in financial circles and the prospects for a rate cut by the Bank of England will be judged by the degree of planned spending on the fight against coronavirus.

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USD/JPY. Americans are panicking, yen cream skimming

Overcoming any boundaries is important for traders, although often these digital thresholds are of purely psychological significance. Nevertheless, the market is subject to emotions and emotional decisions, therefore, a kind of "numismatics" complements the fundamental picture for a particular pair.

Take, for example, the behavior of the Japanese currency. Today, the USD/JPY pair has already reached the 105th figure, updating 5-month highs. The growth of the yen is due only to panic in the market, which in turn is due to anti-records. The statistics are really sad: in China, the number of coronavirus victims exceeded the three thousandth mark, and over 2200 people were infected in the world in a day COVID-19. In addition to China, coronavirus spread to 85 countries, while the total number of infections reached 98 thousand. Such dynamics continue to scare investors, and this fact is eloquently reflected in the markets - and not only in the currency market.

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In particular, the profitability of 10-year-old treasuries also surpassed a psychologically important mark - this indicator not only dropped to a one percent level, but also plunged at 0.9% today (the yield has currently reached 0.811%). The dollar index also slumped, unable to hold on to the 97th figure. The weakness of the US currency manifests itself in different ways in dollar pairs, but most clearly in pair with the yen. The Japanese currency is used by the market as a defensive asset, acting as a fear index. And judging by the impulsive dynamics of the USD/JPY pair, fear really has big eyes - the pair collapsed by almost 600 points in two weeks.

In turn, the dollar is under pressure from various fundamental factors. Firstly, the fact that the interest rate was immediately reduced by 50 basis points puts background pressure on the greenback. Moreover, the Fed representatives do not exclude further steps in this direction. For example, James Bullard, who spoke this week, said that the rate cut at the March meeting "may not be needed." This wording guarded investors, because after an unscheduled rate cut, the dollar regained its position precisely on the belief that the Federal Reserve would limit itself to the measures taken. However, yesterday the head of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Robert Kaplan, who, as a rule, takes a hawkish position, also sowed a seed of doubt - according to him, "it's too early to talk about the decision of the Federal Reserve in March." At the same time, he specified that the regulator will monitor the growth in the number of infected people, and this factor will be taken into account when deciding on a meeting in March.

Such remarks only increased pressure on the dollar, as the number of infected people is growing every day, including in the United States. Almost 200 cases have been confirmed throughout the country, the number of deaths has reached 12 people. To date, new infections have been recorded in several states at once. In particular, in Massachusetts and Maryland, coronavirus was confirmed in three patients. The first patient, Covid-19, was recorded in Tennessee, and a visitor to one of Colorado's medical facilities was checked for infection. California and Washington state already have a state of emergency. Obviously, the situation will worsen every day until it reaches a critical point. Therefore, the probability of interest rate cuts at the March meeting will also grow every day.

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The situation is no better in Japan: the number of people infected with the new coronavirus there has reached 1055, however, most of them are passengers and crew of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Covid-19 is a common global problem, only currencies react differently to the current situation. The yen is the undisputed beneficiary of panic moods today.

Given the dynamics of COVID-19 distribution, we can assume that the USD/JPY pair will continue to show downward dynamics - at least, the fundamental background contributes to this.

From a technical point of view, the situation is as follows. On all the higher timeframes (except for the monthly chart), the pair is on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator under all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which generated a strong bearish Parade of Lines signal. This indicates a clear advantage of the downward movement. The bearish momentum is so strong that it is too early to talk about a price correction: only if the data on the growth of the US labor market today are much better than expected, the bulls of the pair can expect a temporary price pullback. Otherwise, priority will remain downwards. The main target of the downward movement is located on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart, that is, at around 105.00.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 06/03/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Supreme Court of India overthrew the controversial ban imposed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on all cooperation with companies associated with cryptocurrencies.

The Indian central bank, RBI, introduced a general ban on banking connections with cryptographic companies in April 2018, which came into force in July of the same year. After both public and industry petitions, a case combining challenges against the central bank was brought before the Supreme Court by the Internet & Mobile Association of India (IAMAI). The hearings took place in January this year for over two weeks.

IAMAI is a non-profit industry body whose role is to address governments on behalf of consumers, shareholders, and investors from the internet industry. Members include Yahoo! India, Apple, eBay, Unocoin and Etsy.

Financial media report that judges ruled that RBI's actions were "disproportionate." The key arguments, in this case, were the claims of the central bank that cryptocurrency is a digital means of payment and that the institution was authorized by law in its intervention.

IAMAI adviser Ashim Sood objected to this, arguing that cryptocurrencies can oscillate between functioning as a commodity or thesaurization medium and an exchange medium. Sood argued that RBI had no right to prohibit financial companies from providing services to cryptocurrency companies.

After the court's ruling on the groundbreaking RBI case, it seems that the legal and regulatory situation for cryptocurrencies in India faces the last obstacle. In the fall of 2019, the Indian government decided to delay the introduction of the draft bill on the potential ban on cryptocurrencies to parliament during the 2019 winter session.

The bill - entitled 'Ban on cryptocurrencies and regulation of official digital currencies' - supposedly was not only aimed at banning the use of cryptocurrencies in India altogether but also to lay the foundations for the state-supported 'digital rupee' issued by RBI.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has hit the upper channel boundary located at the level of $9,123 and made a Doji candlestick pattern, which is a trend reversal warning. The momentum is now decreasing, but is still quite a strong and positive, so another wave down might happen any time now. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,405 and the key short-term technical resistance is seen at the level of $9,249.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,789

WR2 - $10,332

WR1 - $9,212

Weekly Pivot - $8,808

WS1 - $7,687

WS2 - $7,218

WS3 - $6,064

Trading Recommendations:

The market might have made the first impulsive wave up of a higher degree. This strategy is valid as long as the level of $7,582 is not violated. Nevertheless, the larger timeframe trend is still down and all the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend until the level of $10,433 is clearly broken.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 06/03/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of 1.2962 after the bulls have managed to break out from the parallel channel. Despite the overbought market conditions the momentum is still high and positive, to another leg up might occur any time now. The next target is seen at the level of 1.3017 and the immediate support is located at the level of 1.2939. The key technical resistance is still seen between the levels of 1.3047 - 1.3068.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3239

WR2 - 1.3125

WR1 - 1.2954

Weekly Pivot - 1.2840

WS1 - 1.2657

WS2 - 1.2545

WS3 - 1.2353

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is up, so all downward market moves will be treated as local corrections in the uptrend. In order to reverse the trend from up to down in the longer term, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2756 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3512.

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EUR/USD Intraday High and Low Projection For March 06, 2020

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The High Of The Day and Low Of The Day from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) today are usually formed at STDV 2-STDV 4 under normal market conditions, but sometimes the price can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6. Here are the levels for today:

STDV 10 - 1.1799.

STDV 9 - 1.1744.

STDV 8 - 1.1689.

STDV 7 - 1.1634.

STDV 6 - 1.1579.

STDV 5 - 1.1524.

STDV 4 - 1.1469.

STDV 3 - 1.1414.

STDV 2 - 1.1359.

STDV 1 - 1.1304.

CBDR - 1.1249.

==================

CBDR - 1.1194.

STDV 1 - 1.1139.

STDV 2 - 1.1084.

STDV 3 - 1.1029.

STDV 4 - 1.0974.

STDV 5 - 1.0919.

STDV 6 - 1.0864.

STDV 7 - 1.0809.

STDV 8 - 1.0754.

STDV 9 - 1.0699.

STDV 10 - 1.0644.

Pay attention to the level of confluence between today's & yesterday range at 1.1084 & the previous Day High 1.1245 with the Previous Day Low 1.1120. All these level can be a potential turning point level.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all traders or investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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GBP/USD Intraday High and Low Projection For March 06, 2020

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The High Of The Day and Low Of The Day from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) today are usually formed at STDV 2-STDV 4 under normal market conditions, but sometimes the price can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6. Here are the levels for today:

STDV 10 - 1.3247.

s STDV 9 - 1.3219.

STDV 8 - 1.3191.

STDV 7 - 1.3163.

STDV 6 - 1.3135.

STDV 5 - 1.3107.

STDV 4 - 1.3079.

STDV 3 - 1.3051.

STDV 2 - 1.3023.

STDV 1 - 1.2995.

CBDR - 1.2967.

==================

CBDR - 1.2939.

STDV 1 - 1.2911.

STDV 2 - 1.2883.

STDV 3 - 1.2855.

STDV 4 - 1.2827.

STDV 5 - 1.2799.

STDV 6 - 1.2771.

STDV 7 - 1.2743.

STDV 8 - 1.2715.

STDV 9 - 1.2687.

STDV 10 - 1.2659.

Pay attention to the level of confluence between today's & yesterday range such at 1.2967, 1.2771 & the previous Day High 1.2967 with the Previous Day Low 1.2860. All these levels can be a potential turning point level.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all traders or investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 06/03/2020:

Technical Market Overview:

The bulls have managed to push the prices towards the level of 1.1250, which is the key mid-term technical resistance level. The Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern has been made at this level as well, which indicates a possible trend reversal on EUR/USD. Moreover, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator in overbought market conditions, so the move down might occur any time now. Please keep an eye on the black trendline support and technical support level located at 1.1091 - 1.1065.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1388

WR2 - 1.1223

WR1 - 1.1151

Weekly Pivot - 1.0973

WS1 - 1.0899

WS2 - 1.0724

WS3 - 1.0648

Trading Recommendations:

Despite the recent strong rally on EUR/USD the best strategy for current market conditions is the same as it was for last week: trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larger timeframes like weekly, which indicates a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0778 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 6, 2020

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The coronavirus is still a major risk for the markets. The virus is still spreading fast, as more than 2000 new infections are recorded outside of China. Now, there's a total of 15,000 cases, and the rate of the spread is not less than +10% per day.

If the rate of the spread of the disease does not decrease, the risk of a major crisis due to the virus will not decrease as well. The airline and tourism industries are already suffering huge losses because of it.

Meanwhile, the US employment report for February will be released at 14:30 London time. Strong data is expected, at the level of +180 K.

EUR/USD: in the morning of March 6, the dollar fell against all major currencies - the franc, the yen, and the pound.

The euro has passed an important level on its way up to 1.1240.

Keep purchasing from 1.1100.

Wait for the closing of the day and the week.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. March 6. EU-UK negotiations: the mood of Michel Barnier has changed

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e619cdbbe260.png

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 154.6517

The fourth trading day ended with an upward movement for the pound/dollar pair. No important macroeconomic reports were published in the UK and America yesterday. However, both the euro and the pound rose against the US dollar throughout the day. The US stock market started to recover, however, this did not prevent traders from continuing to get rid of the dollar. When paired with the pound, the picture is certainly not as sad as when paired with the euro. First, the GBP/USD pair shows at least some rudiments of logic in its movements. Secondly, traders of the GBP/USD pair do not just buy a counter-dollar currency, ignoring statistics and fundamental events. It should also be noted that the pair remains in the "swing" mode with a slight downward slope. Therefore, a small upward movement does not contradict the general trend at all.

Moreover, the first stage of negotiations between London and Brussels on a trade deal has ended today. Earlier, Michel Barnier and many other diplomats and experts have repeatedly stated that there is almost no chance of reaching an agreement with London during 2020. As an example, trade deals with Canada or Australia, which were negotiated for many years, were cited. However, after the first stage of negotiations, Michel Barnier was surprisingly optimistic. He said that "the dialogue is being conducted in the direction of rebuilding cooperation between London and Brussels." According to Barnier, the EU is interested in creating a free trade zone with Britain without using duties and quotas. "We have launched 11 areas of negotiations with the UK in various areas, with the exception of foreign policy and defense, because the British side has notified us that it does not want to discuss these issues. However, we remain open to discussing them in the future, if London wants it," said the EU's chief negotiator. Michel also gave a generally positive assessment of the first days of negotiations and said that "it will be very difficult to reach an agreement, but it is quite real." However, Mr. Barnier also noted "a lot of differences in points of view on the same issues," and these differences are "very serious." These serious differences relate mainly to four areas. First: the UK does not want any legal rules in competition between British and European businesses. Second: London refuses to comply with the European Convention on human rights, as well as to recognize the decisions of the European court of human rights, which puts an end to police cooperation between the EU and the UK. Third: London wants to conclude a series of agreements with Brussels on various areas of cooperation, while the European Union wants to sign one extensive and comprehensive association agreement. Fourth: the topic of fishing in British waters. The EU wants to get access to fishing near Britain and detail quotas for marine zones and fish species, and the UK insists on the principle of equal access to each other's waters. In general, we can draw the following conclusion: negotiations have begun and this is already good; the negotiations did not fail immediately at the first stage (which could not be completely excluded, given the position of Boris Johnson) and this is also good; Michel Barnier's restrained optimism also gives hope that the parties will still be able to come to a common denominator and a "hard" Brexit will be avoided. Against this background, the British pound is trading higher at the end of the trading week.

However, do not forget that the pound is not getting more expensive non-stop like the euro, so tomorrow the US statistics may provoke a resumption of downward movement if reports on Nonfarm Payrolls and wages for February will be higher than the forecast values. From a technical point of view, the upward movement continues but a downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate the end of the upward movement. Both linear regression channels are directed downward, so the medium and long-term trends remain downward.

analytics5e619ceff04ee.png

The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair over the past 5 days is 124 points per day. However, on average, the pair's quotes are now about 105-110 points per day. Thus, 200 points of volatility last Friday is not a pattern for the pound at this time. On Friday, March 6, we expect the pair to move within the volatility channel of 1.2827-1.3075. The pair is likely to move towards the upper limit, however, we remind you that a fairly strong drop may begin within the "swing". Especially if the macroeconomic statistics from overseas will please the bears.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2939

S2 - 1.2878

S3 - 1.2827

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3000

R2 - 1.3062

R3 - 1.3123

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues its upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to buy the pound with the targets of 1.3000 and 1.3062, but in small lots, since both channels of linear regression are still directed downwards. We still do not expect strong growth in the British currency. It is recommended to sell the pound again with the targets of 1.2827 and 1.2756 if traders gain a foothold below the moving average line.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 6. Weak US dollar allows pound buyers to act without regard

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Even the fact that the Bank of England can lower interest rates at any time does not repel the purchases of the British pound, which also indicates the weakness of the US dollar after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates earlier this week. At the moment, pound buyers have a specific goal of breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2973, which will lead to further growth in the area of highs of 1.3006 and 1.3036, where I recommend taking profits. In case of news on trade negotiations, GBP/USD may decline, however, this will only lead to the return of new buyers to the market. Long positions can be seen after the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2918, or you can buy a pound for a rebound from a low of 1.2875. Given that important fundamental data today is released only on the US economy in the afternoon, bulls may have problems with growth above 1.2973.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The pound sellers can take advantage of the growth above the level of 1.2973, since the formation of a false breakout in this range will be the first signal to open short positions in order to correct them in the support area of 1.2918, where the moving averages are held. However, the farther target will be the area of 1.2875, where the lower boundary of the current rising channel is located. It is there that I recommend taking profits. With a growth scenario above resistance 1.2973 in the morning, short positions can be returned on a false breakout from a high of 1.3006, or you can sell GBP/USD immediately to a rebound from resistance 1.3036.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the likely continuation of the upward correction of the pair.

Bollinger bands

Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.2973. In the case the pound falls, the middle of the channel 1.2900 will provide support.

analytics5e61e3598d429.png

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 6. Euro rushed to the 13th figure. General weakness of the US dollar persists

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's reports on the decline in production orders and changes in the level of labor costs in the US in the afternoon put pressure on the dollar, which led to a breakdown of important resistance in the pair and the continuation of the upward trend. At the moment, the bulls are focused on resistance 1.1239, which I talked about in yesterday's review, as it was not possible to break above this level the first time. Only a breakthrough in this area will resume demand for the euro and lead to an update of the highs of 1.1279 and 1.1311, where I recommend taking profits. However, more rational purchases will be after a downward correction to the 1.1196 area, subject to the formation of a false breakout, or to a rebound from a low of 1.1156.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

No important fundamental data was published in the morning, so it seems that large sellers will be waiting for a report on the US labor market, which is scheduled for release in the afternoon. You should not rush into selling during the European session. The formation of a false breakout in the region of 1.1239 will be a signal to open short positions. But I recommend postponing larger sales to the test highs 1.1279 and 1.1311. An equally important task for sellers will be to return the pair to the support level of 1.1196, since consolidating below this range will push the euro down to the 1.1156 area, which will lead to the closure of a number of long positions and a larger decrease to 1.1102, where I recommend taking profits.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a continuation of the bullish trend.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1257 will lead to a new wave of euro growth, while the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1160 will act as support.

analytics5e61e2dacaeef.png

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. March 6. "Beige Book": the tourism industry in the United States is shrinking. The euro continues

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e619c3117801.png

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 122.2136

For the EUR/USD currency pair, the last trading day of the week begins with the continuation of the upward movement. The pair's quotes resumed their growth and the bulls resumed their purchases of the European currency, which are not justified in any fundamental or macroeconomic terms. Yesterday, no significant report was published either in the United States or in the European Union. Traders successfully ignored the news on the recovery of the US stock market, although a few days ago, the main reason for the fall of the dollar was the fall of stock indices in America. This week, traders managed to ignore the Fed's decision to lower the key rate by 50 basis points, although this event would have caused the collapse of the US currency at any other time. Thus, we approach Friday, March 6, with a clear understanding that market participants are not paying any attention to macroeconomic statistics at the moment. Of course, it won't last forever. Sooner or later, the panic provoked by the "coronavirus" will pass (at least, I hope so), and the auction will return to its usual course. Traders will again pay attention to the economic indicators of a country's economy. And then all the statistics that were published these days will be remembered.

analytics5e619c477b2eb.png

On Friday, all the most important and significant reports are scheduled in the States. We would like to remind you once again that this week two major events (EU inflation and the Fed's rate cut) were ignored. Thus, today's reports can remain without it. However, we can't ignore them because, despite all the traders' concerns about the US economy's recession (as if the European economy is in better shape), most of the macroeconomic statistics from overseas remain at a very high level. For example, wages in the United States are growing steadily. On a monthly basis, an increase of 0.3% is expected in February. The annual growth rate is +2.9% - +3.0%. Some traders may notice that the growth rate has started to decline but no indicator in the world can constantly accelerate, so a temporary and slight decrease in the growth rate is absolutely normal, which does not mean that the US economy is falling into recession.

analytics5e619c620ceba.png

The second and more significant indicator – Nonfarm Payrolls for February is expected with an increase of 165,000-175,000. And again, someone can say that a month earlier, the increase was 225,000 and now it can be only 170. But this indicator cannot constantly grow. Therefore, the ratio of the forecast value for which traders are preparing and the actual value will be important. If the real value will differ in a big way, then the US dollar will receive support. I would if the markets didn't completely ignore what is happening now. We also want to remind you that another important report this week (the ADP report on the number of new employees in the private sector) also showed a fairly high value and exceeded forecasts.

At the same time, days earlier, the Fed's Beige Book report was published, which rarely provokes any reaction from traders. Nor did it elicit any reaction this time. Nevertheless, it contained interesting information. According to this review, "coronavirus" has begun to have a negative impact on tourism in the United States. "Tourism growth was sluggish and insignificant. There are signs that the coronavirus is negatively affecting travel and tourism in the United States," the document stated. The report also noted "some delays in deliveries". However, it also noted "moderate growth in economic activity" and "strengthening of industrial sectors in many districts". The Fed considers future presidential elections and the "coronavirus" as risks for the US economy, however, there are no special reasons to worry. The document also notes that prices for gas and oil have fallen against the background of coronavirus in China. However, the main thing is that the virus does not begin to progress in the States and around the world. Its current distribution is not critical for the global economy. Moreover, the Fed has already played ahead of the curve and eased monetary policy.

Thus, at the moment, we can say that the upward trend continues, and Friday's statistics from overseas can be ignored again. Therefore, we recommend paying attention to the Heiken Ashi indicator, which can indicate the beginning of a new round of corrective movement. The lower linear regression channel has turned up, so the medium-term trend is already upward.

analytics5e619c7c49f20.png

The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains at record values for the euro – about 120 points per day. And these values only once again confirm that the markets are now in a very excited state and can move unexpectedly and sharply in any direction. Thus, on Friday, we again expect a decrease in volatility and movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.1120 and 1.1358.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1108

S3 - 1.1047

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1292

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair resumed its upward trend. Thus, it is still recommended to trade "on the trend". That is, to buy the European currency with the targets of 1.1292 and 1.1353 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downward. It will be possible to return to sell positions no earlier than fixing the price below the moving average line with the first target of 1.1047, which is still not expected in the near future.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The highest linear regression channel is the blue unidirectional lines.

The lowest linear regression channel is the purple unidirectional lines.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 6, 2020

EUR/USD

The expected euro reversal is delayed. Markets are laying the probability of a threefold Fed rate cut by April, that is, from the current of 1.25% to 0.50%. Investors clearly suffered, because on Wednesday the head of the St. Petersburg Federal Reserve Bank of St. James James Bullard spoke and said bluntly that the markets were mistaken, laying even a quarter point rate hike on March 18, since an emergency rate cut on Tuesday was a preventive measure, you need to get at least some information on the impact of coronavirus on the US economy.

Trading volumes sharply fell, but still exceeded the top five-month volumes. This is excessive volumes for yesterday's growth of the euro by 100 points, which means that strategic investors still continued to close positions on the purchase of middle-hand players.

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The price stopped at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% - at the top of December 31. The Marlin oscillator began to turn around from overbought zone. Today, US employment data for February will be released. The consensus forecast for unemployment is the previous 3.6%, but there are estimates even lower at 3.5%. Outside the agricultural sector, an increase of 175 thousand new jobs is expected. This news is likely to become a turning point for the entire market.

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On the four-hour chart according to Marlin, divergence is forming. The purpose of the euro decline is the Fibonacci level of 61.8% (in fact 38.2% of the growth since February 20), the MACD line is striving for this level both on the daily chart and on the four-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on on March 6, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound rose 83 points on Thursday and entered the uncertainty zone, limited by Fibonacci levels of 100.0-76.4% on the daily chart. This range is indicated by a gray rectangle. The graph shows that the price in it has unpredictably moved since December 23. Purely technical, the price shows an intention to work out the upper limit of the range or to even slightly move above it, having worked out the resistance of the MACD line in the price area of 1.3080. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator looks stable in the positive trend zone. The growth of the pair looks predominant.

analytics5e61c9e09fdd5.png

The indicators have not created reversal patterns on the H4 chart by the current moment, the only sign of a correction or reversal that can develop and work out is the appearance of a reversal of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the overbought zone.

analytics5e61c9f668cbc.png

The impetus for such a reversal might come from today's data on labor in the United States. Non-Farm Employment Change is projected at 175 thousand and wage growth of 0.3%, which is in force to send the pound in a downward correction. The purpose of the decline: 1.2880 - support for the MACD line on H4, 1.2843 - Fibonacci level of 110.0%, 1.2760 - Fibonacci level of 123.6%, but this is the intention to continue to fall in the medium term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on March 6, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen worked out precisely the target range of 105.92-106.13, determined by the Fibonacci levels of 271.0% and 261.8%. The Marlin oscillator on a daily scale has penetrated into the oversold zone. Pessimism reigns in the stock market. The US S&P 500 lost 3.39% yesterday (remaining in the range of Monday), the Japanese Nikkei 225 is losing 3.08% today, updating the September low, the Chinese China A50 is down 1.62%.

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Data on labor in the United States can relieve pressure on the stock market today. The forecast for new jobs outside the agricultural sector is 175 thousand. The growth of the dollar against the yen is possible to the Fibonacci level of 238.2% (106.70). The development of local optimism may extend the growth to the embedded line of the price channel near the Fibonacci level of 223.6% at the price of 107.10. The growth of the pair, of course, will not be a reversal, but corrective, since even the initial signs are not formed for a reversal.

analytics5e61c9935b96b.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Comprehensive analysis of movement options of #USDX vs Gold & Silver (H4) from March 06, 2020

Do people long for metal along with the US dollar? Here's a comprehensive analysis of the development movement options for the #USDX vs Gold & Silver for March 06, 2020

Minuette operational scale forks (H4)

____________________

US dollar index

The movement of the dollar index #USDX from March 06, 2020 will depend on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 96.97 - local minimum;
  • support level of 96.45 on the final Schiff Line of the Minuette operational scale forks

The return of the dollar index above the resistance level of 96.97 (local minimum) followed by the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (97.10) will determine the development of the #USDX movement in the equilibrium zones (97.10 - 97.80 - 98.10) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the boundaries of the equilibrium zones (98.40 - 98.80 - 99.20) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the other hand, the breakdown of support level of 96.45 on the final Schiff Line Minuette with the subsequent update of minimum 96.36 will lead to an option to continue the downward movement #USDX to the final line FSL (95.50) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the warning line LWL38.2 Minuette (94.70).

The markup of #USDX movement options from March 06, 2020 is shown in the animated chart.

analytics5e6120e94249d.jpg

____________________

Spot Gold

The development of the Spot Gold movement from March 6, 2020 will be determined by the development of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1640.00 - 1653.00 - 1666.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the equilibrium zone (1640.00 - 1659.00 - 1678.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks. The details are presented on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 1640.00 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel will lead to an option for the development of Spot Gold movement within the equilibrium zone (1640.00 - 1622.00 - 1605.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the initial SSL line (1588.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Alternatively, in case of breakdown of the resistance level of 1678.00 on the upper boundary of ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks, then the upward movement of Spot Gold can be continued to the goals:

- maximum 1688.87;

- the final Schiff Line Minuette 1697.00;

- control line UTL (1711.00) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the Spot Gold movement options from March 06, 2020 is shown in the animated chart.

analytics5e6120c918667.jpg

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Spot Silver

The development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (17.070 - 17.400 - 18.030) of the Minuette operational scale forks will begin to determine the development of the Spot Silver movement from March 6, 2020. Look at the chart for the details of the development of the indicated levels.

The breakdown of the support level of 17.070 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale forks, will lead to the development of Spot Silver movement which can be continued to the UTL control line (16.800) of the Minuette operational scale forks and the SSL start line (16.420) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In contrast, a sequential breakdown of the resistance level of 17.640 on the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel as well as the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (17.720) will direct the development of Spot Silver movement to the upper boundary of the ISL61.8 (18.030) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks and the final Shiff Line Minuette (18.500).

The details of the Spot Silver movement from March 06, 2020 can be seen in the animated chart.

analytics5e6120a482102.jpg

___________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. March 5 results. ECB next central bank in line to lower the key rate

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e619156b60ff.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 127p - 102p - 157p - 119p - 92p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 120p (high).

The EUR/USD currency pair unexpectedly resumed the upward movement on Thursday, March 5. Thus, the correction was of the weakest nature; quotes of the pair were not even able to reach the critical Kijun-sen line. Based on this, we make an unambiguous conclusion: bulls continue to own the initiative in the market, do not want to let the euro go, believe in a further weakening of the US dollar. In general, all the reasons that provoked a strong strengthening of the euro in the last two weeks continue to be in effect. And it does not matter that most of these reasons are completely contrived by traders. Indeed, in fact, only one thing is important - whether market participants will buy (or sell) this or that currency. And why they do this is a secondary issue. Typically, markets are driven by speculators, that is, players who wish to capitalize on exchange rate differences. However, in addition to speculators and traders, there are also other participants on the market who buy this or that currency to conduct their own business, business, conduct international trade operations and settlements. It does not matter to them whether it is advisable at this time to buy the euro in terms of fundamental analysis. If they need the euro then they will buy it. If they need to hedge risks then they are buying the euro for the future. Thus, now the euro/dollar is in such a turbulent trading period, when the foundation has minimal impact on the movement of the pair. And the movement itself is illogical and unreasonable. In this case, more attention should be paid to technical analysis, which just shows the current trend in the market and does not try to predict when the current upward trend will complete. This is exactly what we do not recommend to traders: try to guess when the euro will strengthen and sell the pair in an upward movement. You should trade "in the trend", even if the "foundation" is against.

Meanwhile, markets continue to be in a state of panic. Or if not panic, then in an excited state. After the Fed decided to soften monetary policy immediately by 0.5%, the US stock market began to recover. As of March 4, stock indices rose significantly. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones added more than 4% each. However, as we see, this did not affect the position of the US currency. It did not manage to correct normally after a strong fall, and news about the growth of the US stock market did not lead to an increase in the dollar. Thus, our hypothesis that the stock market did not fall caused the depreciation of the US dollar. In the same way, other "popular" theories of the fall of the US currency do not work in this case. The euro and the dollar are simply not being traded now in accordance with macroeconomic data, which is why there is no point in looking for logic in the behavior of the market.

At the same time, many experts and analysts are almost completely sure that the ECB will be the next central bank to cut the key rate. First, the situation with coronavirus requires the intervention of a European regulator. Secondly, this week it became known that inflation in the European Union began to slow down again and reached only 1.2% y/y. Thus, the recent statements by the EU and Christine Lagarde that "inflation is the key indicator and the ECB will strive to achieve the target level using any monetary instruments" are of particular importance now. Since inflation is falling again, many central banks of the world have already lowered the rate, the ECB will also take this step with a 95% probability. Experts believe that the ECB will again lower the current deposit rate by 0.1% and bring it, thus, to a value of -0.6%. In fact, with negative rates, the ECB wants financial institutions to take out loans rather than place money on deposits. The exact same decision is expected from the Bank of England. It remains for us to understand how the market can react to these events. For example, today no macroeconomic statistics have been published either in the United States or in the European Union. Nevertheless, the currency of the European Union began to rise again. Will it continue to grow if the ECB softens monetary policy even more? In the long run, from our point of view, such a decision by the ECB will negatively affect the position of the euro. However, who is now worried about the future course of the euro or the dollar? In general, the balance of power between the dollar and the euro will not change in this case. Monetary policy in the United States will remain stronger than in Europe. Thus, we do not believe that the euro can continue to grow for a long time. That is, from a technical point of view, growth can continue as long as you like. The only condition for the technique is the presence of corrections (which are also missing now). But the period of illogical movement from the point of view of the foundation will end sooner or later, and then everything will fall into place.

The technical picture now indicates the resumption of an upward trend. The pair once again worked out the resistance level of 1.1209 and can bounce off of it, starting a new round of correction. Overcoming this level will open the way for the pair to move upwards.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair retains the same chances for the beginning of the correction, and for the continuation of the upward movement. Thus, new long positions can now be considered with the objectives of 1.1209 and 1.1255, as the MACD has turned up. It will be possible to sell the pair with the first goal of the Senkou Span B line, when traders will be able to gain a foothold back below the critical line.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dashed lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com