Bitcoin analysis for December 24, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found that the BTC had broken through the supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found that the price was trading inside the upward channel, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $4.360.

Support/Resistance

$4.133 – Intraday resistance

$3.730– Intraday support

$4.360 – Objective target

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Analysis of Gold for December 24, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading upward. The price tested the level of $1,261.00. Anyway, according to the H4 time frame, I found that the price had tested the upper diagonal of the upward channel, which is a sign that the price is probably in the overbought zone. I also found that there was a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,244.75 (median line).

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EUR/USD analysis for December 24, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1395. According to the H1 time frame, I found that the price broke through the upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control and that there is a potential change in the trend behavior from bullish to bearish. I also found potential creation of the Head and Shoulders pattern. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1355 and at the price of 1.1270.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 24, 2018

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern, where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated the recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250, where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated a significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 a few times.

The EUR/USD pair has been trapped between the price levels of 1.1420 and 1.1270 waiting for a breakout since November 5.

This week, based on the recent price action, another bearish engulfing daily candlestick has been demonstrated around the price level of 1.1420. Hence, another bearish pullback towards 1.1270 should be expected soon.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 24, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair broke resistance at 1.2604 which turned into strong support yesterday. This level coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement which is expected to act as major support today. Equally important, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward, while the moving average (100) is headed to the upside. Accordingly, the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the EMA 100 is pointing to the uptrend. This suggests that the pair will probably go above the daily pivot point (1.2644) in the coming hours. The GBP/USD pair will demonstrate strength following a breakout of the high at 1.2682. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 1.2644 with the first target at 1.2682. Then the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the 1.2682 mark and further to the 1.2739 levels. The level of 1.2739 will act as strong resistance, and the double top is already set at 1.2811. On the other hand, the daily strong support is seen at 1.2604. If the GBP/USD pair is able to break through the level of 1.2604, the market will decline further to 1.2557.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 24, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot : 0.9951.

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, and the price is moving in a bullish channel now. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term, testing 1.0142 or higher. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times, confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951 with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and then towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9863.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 24, 2018

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Wave iv does look complete, with the peak at 1.6986. We could see a final spike higher to 1.7015 to complete the wave iv, but all the requirements has been fulfilled and we are looking for a break below support at 1.6850 to confirm the completion of the wave iv, as well as the onset of the wave v towards 1.6185 and maybe even closer to 1.6000 before completing the impulsive decline from 1.7929.

R3: 1.7071

R2: 1.7015

R1: 1.6965

Pivot: 1.6921

S1: 1.6850

S2: 1.6777

S3: 1.6725

Trading recommendation:

We will sell EUR at 1.7010 or after a break below support 1.6850.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 24, 2018

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After breaking below the triangle support line at 127.70, the EUR/JPY pair has declined and now it should continue to move lower towards the long-term target at 123.66. This decline should complete the wave C of (E) and the more than 10 year long triangle consolidation.

Short-term minor resistance is seen at 126.68 and important resistance is now placed at 127.69, which should cap the upside at anytime for further movement lower towards 124.89 and 123.66.

R3: 127.69

R2: 127.15

R1: 126.68

Pivot: 126.27

S1: 125.85

S2: 125.51

S3: 124.89

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 128.05 and we will move our stop lower to 127.85.

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Trading Plan 12/24/2018

Trading Plan 12/24/2018

The general picture: all questions are postponed until the new year.

The markets failed to organize the trend until the end of the year. The last important event, the unapproved budget of the United States, was barely noticeable against the background of the approaching holidays.

Today, markets trade in a reduced mode, until 18.00 London time and go for Christmas. The beginning of trading on Wednesday, December 26, at 03.00 London time.

Voting on an EU-British agreement will take place around January 13th.

Pound: We are ready to buy from 1.2710.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on December 24. The pound remains in the channel

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

While trading is above the middle of channel of 1.2655, the demand for the British pound will continue, and the main task will be a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.2707, which will resume the uptrend and lead to new highs in the area of 1.2755 and 1.2810, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the scenario of a decline in GBP / USD is below support at 1.2655, long positions can be seen from the lows at 1.2607 and 1.2556.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Short positions in the pound are best to look for after an unsuccessful fixing above the resistance of 1.2707, which can lead to re-test and breakdown of support 1.2655, which will increase the pressure on GBP / USD and collapse the pair to a minimum in the area of 1.2607 and 1.2556, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a pound rising above 1.2707, which is unlikely, short positions can be opened immediately to rebound from a new weekly high of 1.2755.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted just above the 30-day and 50-day moving average, with a short-term advantage of buyers of the British pound.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: plan for the European session on December 24. Volatility decreases

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Market volatility will gradually decrease before the Christmas holidays. For buyers, it is best to look at the breakdown of the level of 1.1402, which can lead to a larger upward correction to the area of maximum 1.1438, where I recommend fixing the profits. The formation of a false breakdown in the 1.1377 area will also retain hope among buyers for the growth of the euro in the first half of the day. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions to rebound from the support of 1.1350.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Bears will try to form a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1402, which will resume the downward movement in the euro and lead to a breakthrough of a minimum of 1.1377, below which levels of 1.1350 and 1.1324 open, where I recommend fixing the profits. If EUR / USD rises above the resistance level of 1.1402, it's best to take a closer look at short positions on the rebound from 1.1438.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a continued decline in the European currency.

Bollinger bands

The upward trend is limited by the intermediate resistance level in the form of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the area of 1.1418 from which sales can be viewed. In the event of a decline in the euro, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the 1.1350 area.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Hard times are coming for the dollar

The third and final assessment of US GDP growth in Q3. In 2018, it was slightly worse than the preliminary 3.5%, dropping to 3.4%, which came as a surprise to the players. The expert forecast did not suggest a decrease. However, the crafty American statistics has long been "a thing in itself," because smoothed data, whose task is to build confidence among investors, rather than informing them about the real state of affairs, you can still see the very tendencies that so frighten investors and make them escape from the stock market in search of safe assets.

For example, the profits of companies after taxes increased in 3 square meters by 3.5%, which is more and preliminary 3.3%, and 2.1% a quarter earlier. At the same time, the trade balance, if it is cleared of such a component as oil and oil products, for which the USA has been a net importer for many years, goes to a sharp peak, which shows the complete inability of the American economy to offer the world something more substantial than dollars.

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Following the trade balance, the current account is also down, so there is no chance to balance the budget without another increase in the borrowing ceiling. Congress after the defeat of the Republicans in the midterm elections in December becomes less accommodating, and a number of federal departments were suspended on Saturday after Republicans and Democrats could not agree on the financing of the construction of the wall between the United States and Canada.

Since Monday is Monday and Tuesday in the United States are officially days off, the actual suspension of work will begin to be felt only on Wednesday. Until December 28, employees will receive a salary, then uncertainty ensues, which can be resolved no earlier than January 3 with the opening of a new session.

The head of the US Treasury Department, Steven Mnuchin, held talks with the leadership of the country's five largest banks, and the minister was primarily interested in providing liquidity for the entire spectrum of market operations. On Monday, Mnuchin intends to hold talks with a number of federal agencies, in particular with the Fed, CFTC, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a number of other organizations. Such active actions on Christmas Eve against the background of shutdown may indicate a strong concern about the stable operation of the financial system in the current environment.

Eurozone

The European Commission notes a noticeable decline in consumer confidence in December to -6.2p against -3.9p a month earlier, the result was worse than forecast, but, nevertheless, the indicator still held above the long-term level of -12p.

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It should be noted that the ECB did manage to resolve the issue of the stability of the euro, which continues to trade in a wide range without a clear direction. The measures aimed at providing liquidity after the completion of the LTRO were expected by the market, investors are not afraid of a slowdown in business, so the euro looks confident even without a traditional Christmas rally by the end of the year.

The 1.15 strength test for EUR / USD failed, however, another attempt in the coming days is quite likely. Low volatility can interfere, but at the same time there are no reasons for going out of the range down to support 1.1350.

Great Britain

Final data for 3 square meters. 2018 did not differ much from the forecasts, GBP / USD remained in the range, the output of which will most likely take place next year. The GDP growth rate was confirmed at 0.6%, the decline in investment inflows is slightly worse than expected, support at 1.2616 is likely to stand, since the negative for the pound has already been completely exhausted, but the dollar has troubled times.

After January 11, the debate on an agreement with the EU on Brexit will resume in parliament, most likely, it will be adopted without changes. The pound will hold at current levels and will gather strength to test 1.2705 strength.

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GBP / USD. December 24th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The pound does not know where to go next

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 72.4650

The GBP / USD currency pair has been trading between the Murray levels of 7/8 and 8/8 in recent days and, by and large, has gone flat. In principle, nothing surprising for the holidays, but the EUR / USD, for example, did not go into such a frank sideways movement. However, the pound has its reasons for such a movement. There are still very few buyers of British currency, as it's not clear how the two-year epic called "Brexit" will end, the pair's sellers are also few, as there are no new reasons to put pressure on the pound now, and the latest data from the Fed is holding back traders from buying the US dollar. Thus, the key question now is: what is waiting for the British pound sterling after the New Year and after voting in the British Parliament on the Brexit bill? Up to this point, as we have said, the best development for the pound will be the absence of new falls and collapses. In the new year, the whole will depend on the final result of the whole Brexit procedure. With a favorable outcome, the pound will have a good chance of strengthening in 2019.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2634

S2 - 1.2573

S3 - 1.2512

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2695

R2 - 1.2756

R3 - 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD is now in the flat. Therefore, it is recommended to open long positions in small lots not earlier than overcoming Murray's level of "8/8" - 1.2695 with the target of 1.2756.

It is recommended to consider short positions extremely carefully and if traders overcome a moving average line with a target of 1.2573. Given the frank flat for some time, you can not open positions on this tool.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. December 24th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Pre-Christmas Day

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -16.3885

The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, December 24, is trading slightly below the moving average line after the Friday's quite strong correction. What is expected traders in the pre-New Year week? In the first three days of the week, there will be no important macroeconomic publications. Tuesday is a day off in honor of Christmas. Thus, these days, it is possible to reduce the volatility of the instrument, and illogical movements in different directions, associated with the closing of positions by traders not on the basis of fundamental or technical factors, but on the basis of the desire to leave the market on the eve of holidays and take profits. Thus, in the coming days, it will be extremely difficult to predict the movement of the pair. From a technical point of view, the instrument has fixed below the moving average line, therefore, it is possible to continue the downward movement. However, the pair does not interfere with anything today to consolidate back above the moving. In general, market participants can be advised to trade extremely cautiously in the coming days. From fundamental events, only data on the speeches of world leaders, for example, Trump, can be made available to traders.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1383

S2 - 1.1353

S3 - 1.1322

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1414

R2 - 1.1444

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to move down. Thus, current sell orders with targets 1.1353 and 1.1322 are relevant. However, the opening of any position is now associated with increased risks.

It is recommended to open buy positions not earlier than reversing the price above the moving with targets 1.1414 and 1.1444 and also small lots. In this case, the pair may be in an upward movement for some time, but now there are no special reasons for the uptrend.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for December 24. New Year's week has started, the euro is falling again

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the American currency and consolidation below the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423. As a result, the process of falling quotations can be continued on December 24 in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.1303. Overcoming divergences today are not observed in any indicator. Rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4%.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair can continue the growth process in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.1553, since the rebound from the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285 was performed. Reversing quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a return to the level of correction of 127.2%. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1303.

The EUR / USD currency pair can be sold now with a target of 1.1303 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4%, as the pair closed below the correction level of 1.1423 (hourly chart).

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for December 24th. The pound sterling went to the "side"

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart has been moving along the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662 for several days already. As a result, the fall in quotations or the resumption of growth can be expected by traders not earlier fixing under the bottom line of the blue area or above the top line of the blue area. Up to this point, the movement along the level of 100.0% can be continued. At the pre-New Year week, there will be very little news, which may affect the market activity.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair performed the fourth and fifth rebounds from the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696, each of which allows you to count on a slight drop in the direction of the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.2566. But the outset is very well seen on the 4-hour chart. As a result, for further growth, the pair should close above the fibo level of 100.0%. Then the chances of continued growth in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2809 will increase.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with a target of 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 100.0% if the pair closes above the correction level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with a target of 1.2566 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 100.0% since the pair completed the rebound from the level of 1.2696 (hourly chart). Based on the conditions of the "outset", a more realistic goal of 1.2613.

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Simplified wave analysis of USD / JPY for December 24

Large-scale graphics:

In the uptrend trend of the major Japanese yen since July, the counter-corrective wave has developed. It has the form of a moving plane, which has every chance of becoming stretched over time.

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Medium scale graphics:

The downward wave of October 3 completes the correctional model of a larger TF. The structure began working out the final phase (C).

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Small-scale graphics:

From December 13, the impulse motion started down, completing the larger wave construction. In the coming days, a short-term pullback is not excluded, after which the price move down will continue.

Forecast and recommendations:

The current price reduction goes against the main trend direction, so sales carry an increased degree of risk. It is recommended to wait for the completion of the wave. Further purchases will be relevant couples.

Resistance zones:

- 111.80 / 112.30

Support areas:

- 109.50 / 109.00

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Indicator analysis. The daily review of the pair GBP / USD for December 24, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, an upward movement is possible with the upper target of 1.2700, the historical resistance level (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, there will be an upward movement with the upper target of 1.2700, the historical resistance level (blue dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. The daily review of the pair EUR / USD for December 24, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, an upward movement is possible, but in the lateral channel, with the first target of 1.1447, a rolling level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis is neutral;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, an upward movement is possible, but in the lateral channel, with the first target of 1.1447, a rolling level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line).

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What can a dollar expect?

The year the US dollar ends in a plus, according to the dynamics of the ICE index. The main factor that supported it is the position of the Fed on monetary policy.

In 2018, the dollar index started at 91.75 points and ends at the level of 96.00 points, while at the beginning of the year, there was a drawdown below 89.00, and the local maximum was at 97.71 points. The main reason that supported the rate of the American currency was the stable position of the Fed in the decision to continue to gradually increase interest rates. The bank for a goal balanced between decisions to raise rates three or four times, respectively, at 0.25%. In the end, as we expected, at the beginning of last year, he raised the rates four times in aggregate by 1.00%.

Also important supporting cause was the steady decline in the balance of the regulator, about which economic observers and analysts somehow stopped writing during the year. But this is one of the most important factors that stimulated investor interest in the dollar, making it more "scarce" in the market. Explain what we mean. Earlier in the period of the acute phase of the global crisis, the Fed actively stimulated the economy, "throwing" significant amounts of dollar liquidity into the financial market, which led to its weakening and a significant increase in demand for risky assets. But already from last year, the regulator began the process of reducing the balance, withdrawing this liquidity from the financial system, which began to put pressure on the demand for risky assets and, conversely, maintains the US currency.

Another reason for the attractiveness of the dollar was the revival of its function of a safe-haven currency in the wake of growing uncertainty in the world due to D. Trump's inadequate policies. An additional supporting condition is also the absence of the desire to actively raise interest rates by central banks, whose currencies are included in the dollar basket.

An important outcome of this year is the Fed, however, slightly adjusted, but still active in the issue of interest rates. The outcome of the December meeting began plans to continue raising rates and further, albeit at a slower pace.

As for the dynamics of the foreign exchange market until the end of this year, we believe that the continuing overall side trend in EUR / USD and GBPUSD pairs will most likely dominate. Currencies of the commodity group may receive support, but it seems insignificant against the background of the OPEC + decision to reduce crude oil production again. The growth of quotations of "black gold" will obviously be restrained by the continuation of a decline in the growth of the global economy on the wave of a trade war between the United States and China until the imputed mutually beneficial agreements on trade between countries are reached. The overall growth of fears in world markets with prospects for economic growth will support the demand for defensive assets, government bonds of economically strong countries, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the US dollar.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD currency pair is trading below 1.1400, remaining in the range of 1.1270-1.1460. If the price does not overcome this mark, there is a chance, after its decline below 1.1355, to continue falling to 1.1270.

The AUD / USD currency pair remains in a short-term downtrend. The inability of prices to rise above the level of 0.7075 could be the reason for its fall to 0.7000.

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fzYBW6IzlF6qzAIF5ftE3KtnCAhaPrOWMPnb-DS4The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / USD for December 24

Large-scale graphics:

Throughout the past year, the main vector of the euro price movement was set by the downward wave. The wave is not complete. After the current correction phase, the decline will continue.

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Medium scale graphics:

From November 12 on the chart in the flat formed an ascending section. In a larger wave model, it takes the place of the final part (C). Preliminary completion of the entire recovery can be expected in the region of the 117th figure.

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Small-scale graphics:

From December 20, the first part (A) of the downward wave develops. In the wake of the watch TF, she will complete the correctional stage of movement.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the near weekly period, the price of the pair is waiting for fluctuations in the side corridor. Sales can be justified only on the smallest TF reduced lot. After the completion of the whole wave, the search for entry into long positions will become relevant.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1490 / 1.1540

Support areas:

- 1.1300 / 1.1250

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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The forecast of EUR / USD for December 24, 2018

EUR / USD

On Friday, moderate positive macroeconomic data came out in the USA, which allowed the dollar to strengthen throughout the market. Euro lost 75 points. Incomes of consumers in November increased by 0.2%, expenses increased by 0.4%. GDP for the third quarter in the final assessment was revised down from 3.5% to 3.4%, but investors did not adjust their positions strongly due to the recent rate increase. In the evening, President Trump, due to disagreement with the Congress on the financing of the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico, stopped funding government agencies. But the markets in recent years have already acquired immunity to such shutdowns and are staying fairly stable. Especially since now such an action came during the Christmas holidays, and the new year is already closed, so the damage will be minimal. Trump himself suggested that the suspension will be short.

Today on trading floors shortened day. Sometimes it happens that strong movements occur in the thin market, but at the end of last week trading volumes were high, investors left the market and the likelihood of such a scenario decreased significantly. The price on the daily chart is between the lines of balance and Kruzenshtern, probably it will remain in this range. There are no conditions to go down, no forces to go up.

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Also, on the four-hour chart, the price is above the balance lines and Kruzenshtern. On Wednesday, after Western Christmas, the market may show increased volatility and the euro can rise to the range of 1.1526 / 75, but technically for a downward price, it is enough to fix below the Friday minimum. Such a speculative breakthrough is also possible, even in spite of the American shutdown, because it is such an operation that can bring good profits. We are waiting for the development of the situation.

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The forecast of GBP / USD for December 24, 2018

GBP / USD

The British pound sluggishly responded to the reduction in the work of American public services, since England's own problems may look much more serious. To date, the pound is trading in the range of Friday. Technically, there is a possibility of growth, but it is limited by the resistance of the nested line of the price channel (1.2726, but, speaking more precisely, we define the range of 1.2705 / 26), the possibility of reduction is fully realized when fixing below the Kruzenshtern line on the four-hour chart (1.2616). But this situation lasts for the fifth session, so it is worth waiting for the market to decide.

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28DV6a5mpJc7Yp2Vj7ISBuQQsj69LZV8_wRl9kPuThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The forecast for AUD / USD for December 24, 2018

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar on Friday met the minimum plan and reached the target level of 0.7042. Today, on a shorter working day in Australia and in the West, investors just close their positions before the holidays.

On the four-hour chart, there are first signs of price convergence with the Marlin indicator, which may indicate the potential for corrective growth. Upon completion of the correction, which is the maximum (as far as possible to continue in a declining trend) can continue to 0.7125, we are waiting for the resumption of the decline to support the embedded line in the price channel in the area of 0.6998.

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8zpHdgy6jyzIg-fXwwREvS2xc6gmPP65bMIErsQeThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December 24

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the price forms the potential for a downward movement of December 20. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we should continue moving upwards after the breakdown of 1.2680. For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the price forms the potential for the top of December 21 and the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 0.9961. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of December 14. For the Euro / Yen currency pair, we have expanded the potential for a downward structure from December 13 to the level of 125.30. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we expect the downward movement after the breakdown of 139.86.

Forecast for December 24:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:RwNE-UiMHFGcfOOsu4vt4ZwEnAhkRGKd4ZgMMnY_For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1437, 1.1405, 1.1384, 1.1347, 1.1321, 1.1305 and 1.1256. Here, we are watching the formation of the downward potential of December 20. A downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1347. In this case, the goal is 1.1321 and in the range of 1.1321 - 1.1305 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1256, a pronounced movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 1.1305.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1384 - 1.1405 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1437 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1384 Take profit: 1.1403

Buy 1.1407 Take profit: 1.1435

Sell: 1.1345 Take profit: 1.1324

Sell: 1.1305 Take profit: 1.1260xeLPicJKmpy9MuX_5HP-F1ZSFc6f41QxFsmHZqoFFor the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.2865, 1.2813, 1.2741, 1.2679, 1.2592, 1.2552, 1.2517, 1.2475 and 1.2417. Here, we continue to follow the formation of the ascending structure of December 11. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2679. In this case, the goal is 1.2741 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.2741 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2813. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.2865, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 1.2592 - 1.2552. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2517 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.2475.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 11, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2680 Take profit: 1.2740

Buy: 1.2744 Take profit: 1.2813

Sell: 1.2591 Take profit: 1.2552

Sell: 1.2550 Take profit: 1.2517IyBkTu_dmnYja_zZGlfiatV7S43oCinFuXFnv1qRFor the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0029, 0.9993, 0.9978, 0.9961, 0.9919, 0.9905 and 0.9883. Here, we follow the formation of the ascending structure of December 21. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9961. In this case, the target is 0.9978 and consolidation is near this level. The price passage of the range of 0.9978 - 0.9993 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.0029, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9919 - 0.9905. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9883 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of December 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9961 Take profit: 0.9976

Buy: 0.9995 Take profit: 1.0025

Sell: 0.9919 Take profit: 0.9908

Sell: 0.9903 Take profit: 0.9885

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale are 112.06, 111.59, 111.34, 110.99, 110.65 and 110.30. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of December 14. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 110.99 - 110.65 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target. In this case, the target is 110.30 and we expect a rollback to the top from this level.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 111.34 - 111.59 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 112.06 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of December 14.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.34 Take profit: 111.57

Buy: 111.63 Take profit: 112.00

Sell: 110.99 Take profit: 110.67

Sell: 110.62 Take profit: 110.30

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3741, 1.3667, 1.3621, 1.3557, 1.3516 and 1.3463. Here, we are following the development of the bottom-up structure from December 7th. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3621 - 1.3667 and the breakdown of the last value will allow expecting a movement towards a potential target of 1.3741, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3557 - 1.3516 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3453 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of December 7th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3621 Take profit: 1.3665

Buy: 1.3670 Take profit: 1.3740

Sell: 1.3555 Take profit: 1.3518

Sell: 1.3514 Take profit: 1.3465

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7148, 0.7115, 0.7075, 0.7049, 0.7015, 0.6997, 0.6954 and 0.6919. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of December 13. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 0.7015 - 0.6997. In this case, the target is 0.6954. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.6919, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 0.7049 - 0.7075 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7115 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will have to form an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 0.7148.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7050 Take profit: 0.7073

Buy: 0.7077 Take profit: 0.7115

Sell: 0.6995 Take profit: 0.6958

Sell: 0.6952 Take profit: 0.6921

ij9zdk8bCp5vSL_J2XL5oaCUyfuPeQfvhgHe1pm3For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.48, 127.00, 126.68, 126.14, 125.89 and 125.30. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of December 13. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 126.14 - 125.89 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target. In this case, the target is 125.30 and we expect a rollback to the top from this level.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 126.68 - 127.00 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 127.48 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 126.68 Take profit: 127.00

Buy: 127.03 Take profit: 127.40

Sell: 126.14 Take profit: 125.92

Sell: 125.87 Take profit: 125.35

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 142.09, 141.30, 140.92, 140.22, 139.86 and 139.15. Here, we follow the development of the downward structure of December 13. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 140.22 - 139.86 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 139.15. From the level of 139.15, we expect a roll back up.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 140.92 - 141.30 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the goal is 142.09 and this level is the key support for the bottom. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the upward cycle. In this case, the goal is 142.73.

The main trend is the downward structure of December 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 140.92 Take profit: 141.25

Buy: 141.35 Take profit: 142.05

Sell: 140.20 Take profit: 139.90

Sell: 139.83 Take profit: 139.20

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Weekly review for the GBP / USD currency pair from December 24 to 29, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

This week, the price will move down with the first goal of 1.2490, the support line (red bold line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - down.

Conclusion on a comprehensive analysis - the downward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the GBP / USD currency pair candle is on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have a downward trend with the presence of the first upper shadow of the weekly black candle (Monday - up) and the second lower shadow (Friday - up).

This week, the price will move down with the first goal, the support line of 1.2490 (red bold line).

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Technical analysis for Gold for December 24, 2018

Gold price has made a new higher maximum. However, there are some bearish divergence signs on the H4 chart that provide a warning for bulls. The price has stopped at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $1,365. We must keep an eye on the RSI resistance trend line to find a clue for a rejection or an upside.

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Blue line - short-term trend line support

Yellow line - bearish RSI divergence

Green line - major trend line support

Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The RSI is diverging on the H4 chart. A break above the yellow trend line resistance of the RSI would be a sign of strength and I would not go against it. A rejection at the current levels and a break below the short-term support at $1,253 would open a way for a pullback towards the short-term trend line support near $1,240.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for December 24, 2018

The EUR/USD pair had another failed attempt to break above resistance on Friday. The price got rejected at the major trend line resistance and pulled back below 1.14 towards the 1.1350-1.1370 support area. The price remains within the trading range.

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Yellow rectangles - trading range

Red line - major trend line resistance

Green line - trend line RSI Support

EUR/USD remains within the trading range. It is safer to wait for a clear breakout before acting. However, the major bullish divergence implies that it is more likely to see a move higher. This move higher will be confirmed once the red trend line is broken. And we will remain on the bullish side as long as the green trend line support of the RSI is not broken downwards.

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Weekly review for the EUR / USD currency pair from December 24 to 29, 2018

The upcoming week will be very short. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will be weekends, and even on the eve of the New Year, it is unlikely that someone will strive to get rich. Last week, the price went up to the resistance line of 1.1487 (red bold line) and then went down. This week, a downward movement is possible.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

When moving down, the first lower target is 1.1307, the historical level of support (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - down.

Conclusion on a comprehensive analysis - the downward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the EUR / USD currency pair candle on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have a downward trend with the presence of the first upper shadow at the weekly black candle (Monday - up) and the second lower shadow (Friday - up).

When moving down, the first lower target is 1.1307, the historical level of support (blue dotted line).

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