BITCOIN Analysis for March 4, 2019

After a series of corrections and indecision below $4,000 with a daily close, Bitcoin is currently trading below $3,800. Like most of the cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has been struggling to sustain the bullish momentum being surrounded by pessimism along the way.

The price is currently showing certain bearish rejection off the $3,700 area from where it is expected to rise higher towards $3,800 where the Kumo Cloud resistance lies. A break above $3,800 will lead the price to $4,000 in the future. Though the price has been quite impulsive with the recent bearish momentum, being above $3,500-600 support area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to push the price higher.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Bitcoin analysis for March 04, 2019

Bearish breakout of the 4-day balance support at $3.718.

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We find the bearish breakout of the 4-day balance, which is a sign that sellers are in control and that we may expect further decline on the BTC. Support levels are seen at $3.528 and $3.386. Key short-term resistance level is seen at $3.862.

Trading recommendation: We are short BTC from $3.680 with targets at $3.528 and $3.386. Protective stop is placed at $3.865.

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EUR/USD analysis for March 04, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading downwards but the intraday bullish divergence is in creation. Careful with selling positions.

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The level of 1.1327 provided intraday support. According to the M15 time – frame, we found that bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator in creation, which is sign that selling at this stage looks risky.Intraday resistance levels are set at 1.1346, 1.1368 and 1.1380. Even if the price breaks the support at 1.1327, we wouldn't recommend you going short on intraday prospective due to potential oversold condition.

Trading recommendation: We are neutral on EUR/USD with the intraday risk for the downside. Anyway, if we see the breakout of the resistance at 1.1346, we will buy with small position and put targets at 1.1368 and 1.1380.

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March 4, 2019 : GBP/USD is retracing towards its newly-established Demand-Zone.

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Shortly after, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) then 1.2820-1.2800 (50% Fibonacci level) within the depicted H4 bearish channel.

On February 15, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 (Fibonacci 50% level) resulting in a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.

This initiated the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards 1.3155, 1.3240 and 1.3300.

Early signs of bearish reversal/retracement were demonstrated around the price level of 1.3317. Bearish pullback was expected to extend down towards 1.3240 and 1.3200 where price action should be watched cautiously for bullish positions.

Bullish persistence above the newly-established depicted demand-zone (1.3240-1.3190) is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement.

Any bearish breakdown below 1.3190 invalidates the short-term bullish scenario allowing a quick bearish movement to occur towards 1.3150 (lower limit of the demand zone) and 1.3060 where the recent bullish breakout was initiated.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can watch for the current bearish pullback around 1.3190 for a valid low-risk BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.3150. T/P levels to be located around 1.3240 and 1.3317 initially.

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March 4, 2019: EUR/USD is still holding some bullish gains around the lower limit of its channel.

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On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

Since February 20, the EUR/USD pair has been demonstrating weak bullish recovery with sideway consolidations around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270).

Last week, significant bullish recovery emerged on Tuesday. However, on Thursday, the pair failed to fixate above 1.1400 with early signs of bearish rejection.

This indicated a high probability of bearish reversal towards 1.1300-1.1330 where the lower limit of the depicted movement channel is located.

Please note that a bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A valid BUY entry can be offered around the current price levels of 1.1300-1.1330. T/P levels to be located around 1.1360 and 1.1420. S/L to be located below 1.1275.

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Analysis of Gold for March 04, 2019

Gold continues trading downwards as we expected. There is strong downward momentum.

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Our first downward target at the price of $1,302.00 has been reached. The bearish momentum is caused by the fake breakout of the resistance level at $1,325.00 and the breakout of the 4-day balance support at $1,320.00. Gold is heading to test our second target at the price of $1,277.35.

Trading recommendation: We closed half of our bearish positions at $1,302.00 and the target for the second half is set at $1,277.35. SL was moved to $1,302.15.

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Pound will pass the test

This has been issued the best week so far. For the last month, the pound, leading the G10 race, was forced to slow down due to weak statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector. In February, British companies actively reduced their employees and increased stocks, fearing Brexit's indiscriminate behavior. As a result of which, the purchasing managers index slowed down from 52.6 to 52. This is the weakest indicator over the past four months and its second worst since voting on the country's membership in The EU in the summer of 2016. The economy of Foggy Albion is in a fever, but the sterling who is fixated on improving the political landscape pays little attention to this.

Rumors that Theresa May will propose for the Parliament to extend the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty are pulling the GBP / USD up. Investors sincerely hope that this will lead either to a soft Brexit, or to a repeated referendum. The result of the latter could be the preservation by Britain of a place in the European Union. However, public opinion polls show that the balance of power is currently about the same (53% for staying in the EU, 47% against) in the summer of 2016 on the eve of the first vote.

The pound leads for a falling volatility ( a three-month implied indicator fell to its lowest level since mid-autumn) and bullish forecasts of large banks. So, Deutsche Bank believes that the current GBP / USD rally is fully justified. Investors are laying in quotes for a couple waiting for the date of the divorce to be postponed from March 29 to a later period. Goldman Sachs says that there is a closure of positions to hedge the risk of disorderly Brexit. Few people currently believe that the sterling will collapse to $ 1.15. In the worst case, where it leads to to $ 1.24, UBS recommends buying it.

At the same time, it is necessary to understand that now the pound is growing on rumors. However, if parliamentarians prolong Article 50 of the European Union Code, uncertainty will again fall on Britain, which in recent years has led to a decline in business activity and a slowdown in GDP. In this regard, the March 5 release of the services PMI is a risk factor for bulls on GBP / USD. If it were not for the negative from the economy, the pair, according to MUFG, would have already taken off to 1.36-1.37.

PMI Dynamics in Services and GDP in Britain

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Support for buyers GBP / USD was provided by the US administration. Donald Trump once again criticized Jerome Powell, calling him a gentleman who likes to raise rates and a strong dollar. According to the president, a strong currency blocks the oxygen for doing business abroad for American companies. Although the markets have rather calmly reacted to verbal interventions, it is rumored that the plans of the owner of the White House will be implemented with other people's help.

Technically, on the daily GBP / USD chart, the implementation of the 5-0 pattern takes place. A rollback to 50% of the CD wave allowed to form longs. And at present, the pair are moving north to the target using the "Wolfe Wave" model. They correspond to marks of 1.35 and 1.39.

GBP / USD daily graph

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USD / CAD: bad news ahead of Bank of Canada meeting

On Friday, the Canadian dollar lost all positions. In just a few hours, it weakened by almost 200 points against the US currency. The Canadian was barely able to gain a foothold in the middle of the 31st figure. Disappointing statistics pushed the currency out of the multi-day range, after which the pair usd / cad reached the level of 1.3305.

This week, the northern dynamics of the pair may get its continuation, since the March meeting of the Bank of Canada will take place on Wednesday. However, the Canadian plays out the expected results of the meeting for now. Given the weakness of the latest macroeconomic reports, it is not difficult to predict the tone of the regulator's statements. Friday data on GDP growth in Canada only confirmed this fact, only adding to the general negative picture of a fundamental nature.

The volatile reaction of the market is fully justified because the growth of the Canadian economy has actually stopped. On a monthly basis, GDP for the second month in a row is in the negative area (-0.1%). If we talk about quarterly terms, in the last quarter of last year, the key indicator grew by only one tenth of a percent compared to the third quarter. The dynamics of GDP, calculated on an annualized basis (it is believed that such an assessment is closer to the US estimate of growth rates), is also disappointing. Instead of the expected growth of up to 1%, the real numbers were much lower - 0.4%.

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It is worth noting that such a weak result is due not only to the decline in the oil market at the end of last year (although this factor is one of the key factors). The structure of the indicators suggests that the Canadian economy has slowed down due to lower growth in the housing market and a general decline in consumer confidence. For example, the average cost of housing over the past year has decreased by almost six percent, in particular due to lower demand and more stringent and complex rules for obtaining mortgage. The remaining structural elements of GDP also show negative dynamics: for example, the volume of investment in the Canadian economy decreased by 2.7%, investment in real estate - by 3.9%, and new projects - by 5.5%. The dynamics of the industrial sector are also disappointing, especially against the background of an uncertain situation in the oil market.

A significant drop in consumer activity is also a serious problem. In January, the core retail sales index remained in the negative area again (for the third month in a row), while the increase in the full-time employment rate slowed down significantly, while part-time employment was gaining momentum. This is reflected in the dynamics of wage growth in the country, and the dynamics of household spending has been falling for the second quarter in a row.

This dynamic inevitably leads to a weakening of price pressure. The January consumer price index rose only to 0.1% on a monthly basis (with a weak growth forecast to 0.2%) and decreased to 1.4% in annual terms (this is the weakest growth rate since October 2017). Core inflation also showed a negative trend, falling from 1.7% to 1.5% (g / g). The most significant decrease in electricity prices in January - immediately by 6.9% compared with the previous year.

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Thus, almost all macroeconomic indicators - both the most important and secondary - show a slowdown or stagnation. A kind of quintessence was the Friday release of data on the growth of Canadian GDP. Now, there can be no doubt: the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, firstly, will take a waiting position and keep the parameters of monetary policy in its previous form; secondly, he will voice "dovish" rhetoric, announcing a long pause in the matter of raising rates. By and large, the head of the Central Bank Stephen Poloz at the end of February already hinted at such a decision, but the extremely weak growth of the Canadian economy can strengthen the "bearish" mood among the members of the regulator. By the way, there are more and more rumors on the market that members of the Canadian regulator will follow their American counterparts and will wait until the end of the year.

Despite such an unambiguous fundamental background for a pair of usd / cad, the technical picture does not say anything definite. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator is "silent", hinting only at a possible corrective decline by the fact that the pair is under the Kumo cloud. At the same time, the price is located between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, holding back the downward movement by the support level, which is located on the middle line of the indicator and corresponds to 1.3225. The resistance level is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands and the price is 1.3340.

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Summarizing what has been said, one can come to the conclusion that from the point of view of the foundation, the priority remains over the north, especially on the eve of the March meeting of the Bank of Canada. A pair of usd / cad can be ignored even the temporary weakening of the greenback, which was under pressure after Trump's speech during the weekend. The American president again criticized the Fed's policy and complained about the high dollar rate. These factors, according to Trump, are constraining factors for the growth of the US economy. The dollar index at the opening of the trading week slipped a bit, but rather quickly recovered. The fact is that it is not the first time when Trump voiced such rhetoric, but this criticism does not have any practical significance (in the context of the dismissal of the Fed head or other cardinal decisions). Given this fact, the market actually ignored the impulsive words of the American president. In other words, a pair of usd / cad has every chance to go into the area of the 33rd figure and test the first resistance level of 1.3340.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 04, 2019

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Overview: The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on March 4

Dear colleagues,

For the Euro / Dollar pair, we mainly expect a downward movement, which should occur after the breakdown of 1.1360. For the pair Pound / Dollar, the price is in deep correction and forms the potential from the bottom of February 27. The pair Dollar / Franc price forms the initial conditions for the top of February 28. The development of which is expected after the breakdown of 1.0022. The pair Dollar / Yen is following the development of the upward cycle of February 27. The development of the impulse is expected after the breakdown 112.23. For the Euro / Yen pair, we follow the upward cycle from February 22. We expect further uptrend after the breakdown of 127.61. On the Pound / Yen pair, the main development of the upward trend from February 22 is expected after the passage of the noise range 147.75 - 148.21, the level 146.80 key support.

For at Forecast March 4:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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The for Euro / Dollar pair, the key a levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1455, 1.1442, 1.1423, 1.1406, 1.1376, 1.1360, 1.1333 and 1.1322. Here the price is in equilibrium. Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 1.1406 - 1.1423. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1442. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1455, after reaching this level which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.1376 - 1.1360. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1333. The range 1.1333 - 1.1322 is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the equilibrium state.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1406 Take profit: 1.1421

Buy 1.1424 Take profit: 1.1441

Sell: 1.1374 Take profit: 1.1361

Sell: 1.1358 Take profit: 1.1335

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The for Pound / Dollar pair, the key a levels on the H1 scale are 1.3419, 1.3340, 1.3278, 1.3210, 1.3171, 1.3132, 1.3105 and 1.3041. Here, the price is in deep correction with the uptrend and forms the potential from the bottom of February 27. Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 1.3210 - 1.3171. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect to move to level 1.3132, in the corridor 1.3132 - 1.3105 consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3041. After reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Level 1.3278 is a key support for the downward structure of February 27. Its price passage will have to form a local ascending structure. In this case, the first target is 1.3340. As a potential value for the top, we consider the level 1.3419.

The main trend is the upward cycle of February 14, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3278 Take profit: 1.3340

Buy: 1.3342 Take profit: 1.3417

Sell: 1.3210 Take profit: 1.3172

Sell: 1.3169 Take profit: 1.3132

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The for Dollar / by Frank pair, the key a levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0107, 1.0092, 1.0065, 1.0047, 1.0022, 0.9968, 0.9952 and 0.9924. Here, we follow the formation of the initial conditions for the top of February 28. The continuation of the upward movement we expect after the breakdown 1.0022. In this case, the target is 1.0047. In the corridor 1.0047 - 1.0065, a short-term upward movement is shown, as well as consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.0065 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here the goal is 1.0092. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0107, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 0.9968 - 0.9952. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to movement to the first potential target - 0.9924.

The main trend - the formation of the ascending structure of February 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0022 Take profit: 1.0047

Buy: 1.0065 Take profit: 1.0090

Sell: 0.9968 Take profit: 0.9953

Sell: 0.9950 Take profit: 0.9925

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The for Dollar / to Yen pair, the key on the scale a levels are: 112.81, 112.56, 112.44, 112.23, 112.07, 111.81, 111.61 and 111.33. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of February 27. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 112.07 - 112.23. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 112.44 in the corridor 112.44 - 112.56 consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 112.81. After reaching this level, we expect a departure to a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 111.81 - 111.61. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 111.33. This level is a key support for the upward structure of February 27.

The main trend: the upward cycle of February 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.07 Take profit: 112.21

Buy: 112.25 Take profit: 112.44

Sell: 111.80 Take profit: 111.63

Sell: 111.58 Take profit: 111.35

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar pair, the key a levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3373, 1.3347, 1.3317, 1.3262, 1.3237 and 1.3196. Here, after the cancellation of the potential for downward movement, we are following the formation of the initial conditions for the top of March 1. Movement up is expected after breakdown 1.3317. In this case, the goal is 1.3347. The potential value for the uptrend for now is considered the level of 1.3373. Before which, we expect the registration of the expressed initial conditions.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3262 - 1.3237. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.3196. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the ascending cycle of March 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3317 Take profit: 1.3345

Buy: 1.3347 Take profit: 1.3372

Sell: 1.3261 Take profit: 1.3238

Sell: 1.3235 Take profit: 1.3198

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The for the Australian dollar / dollar pair, the key a levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7153, 0.7127, 0.7109, 0.7071, 0.7052, 0.7026 and 0.7010. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of February 27. Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 0.7071 - 0.7052. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.7026. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.7010, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 0.7109 - 0.7127. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 0.7153. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of February 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7109 Take profit: 0.7125

Buy: 0.7128 Take profit: 0.7152

Sell: 0.7070 Take profit: 0.7054

Sell: 0.7051 Take profit: 0.7026

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The for Euro / to Yen pair, the key a levels on the H1 scale are: 128.27, 127.85, 127.61, 127.03, 126.82, 126.52 and 126.36. Here, we continue to monitor the local ascending structure of February 22. A short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 127.61 - 127.85. The breakdown of the last value will allow us to count on the movement towards a potential target - 128.27. From this level, we expect a departure to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 127.03 - 126.82. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the target is 126.52 with Range 126.52 - 126.36 noise, to 126.36. We expect the initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of February 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 127.61 Take profit: 127.82

Buy: 127.87 Take profit: 128.25

Sell: 127.03 Take profit: 126.84

Sell: 126.80 Take profit: 126.55

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The for Pound / to Yen pair, the key a levels on the H1 scale are: 150.49, 149.47, 149.01, 148.21, 147.75, 147.22, 146.80 and 146.06. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of February 22. Short-term upward movement is expected in the corridor 147.75 - 148.21. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 149.01 in the corridor 149.01 - 149.47 short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 150.49, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 147.22 - 146.80. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 146.06. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of February 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 147.77 Take profit: 148.20

Buy: 148.25 Take profit: 149.00

Sell: 147.22 Take profit: 146.82

Sell: 146.78 Take profit: 146.10

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 04, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3228. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.3228, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.3228, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CAD pair to trade between 1.3228 and 1.3328. So, the support stands at 1.3228, while daily resistance is found at 1.3328. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3228. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.3228 with the first target at the level of 1.3328; and continue towards 1.3295. However, if the USD/CAD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.3328 today, the market will decline further to 1.3166 -1.3200.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for March 4. The pair is prone to falling, but down does not allow the level of

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the EUR / USD pair performed a new return to the correctional level of 23.6% - 1.1358. On March 4, the end of quotes from this level will allow to count on a turn in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the 38.2% correction level - 1.1446. There is not a single indicator on the current chart that has diverging effects today. Moreover, closing quotes below the Fibo level of 23.6% will increase the pair's chances of continuing falling towards 1.1269.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018 and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the quotes of the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and began a slow decline in the direction of the correction level 127.2% - 1.1285 after the formation of a bearish divergence. Closing the course of the pair below this level will allow traders to expect a continuation of the fall in the direction of the next Fibo level 161.8% - 1.0941. On the other hand, rebounding the pair from the level of 127.2% will work in favor of the euro currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level 100.0% - 1.1553.

The Fibo net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1446, if the pair disconnects from the level of 1.1358, and the Stop Loss order is below the 23.6% level. But be careful, since there is a bearish divergence on the 24-hour chart.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.1269, and with a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358, if the pair closes below the Fibo level of 23.6%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro and pound weaken

Most of the macroeconomic indicators published on Friday in the eurozone coincided with forecasts, which did not give the euro an opportunity to go beyond the borders of the emerging range. The volume of retail sales in Germany in January at + 3.3% came as a surprise after a flop of -4.3% in December, taking into account Christmas and New Year's sales. The February PMI in the manufacturing sector was confirmed at 47.6p, a weak indicator, but there is no deterioration relative to preliminary data.

Unemployment in the euro area remained at 7.8 %, while the deterioration forecast reached 7.9%. Preliminary inflation data coincided with the forecasts. Concerns about the approaching recession in the eurozone are intensifying. A wide range of economic and financial parameters indicates that the risk of slowing down is based on serious factors. DanskeBank issued a special review, which combined 12 major economic and 4 financial variables, which in historical data showed a good correlation with the economic cycle. The dynamics of the resulting indicator shows that a decrease in the value below -1 coincides with periods of recession.

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At the moment, the indicator has a value of -0.1p, which means that, it has clearly not yet reached the recession zone; therefore, there is a chance to stop negative trends and return to the growth trajectory. According to DanskeBank, financial variables show clear regression trends, while economic ones remain close to long-term averages. This stroke may indicate a deep-seated problem that is now unfolding in front of all the major world central banks - by what financial and monetary methods to influence the economic situation, if the traditional instruments are almost exhausted.

Today, Sentix will publish an investor confidence index in March, and Eurostat will report on producer prices in February. The general background for the euro remains neutral and the chances of going beyond the range formed on Friday are small. Support 1.1352, resistance 1.1396. Attempting to leave below support may strengthen bearish moods. In this case, support will move to 1.1315.

GBPUSD

The pound received some support on Friday after the publication of macroeconomic data. Reports on consumer and mortgage lending provided by the Bank of England in January indicate high consumer activity, which, in turn, will support price indices. The PMI index in the manufacturing sector in February was 52.0p which is slightly worse than 52.6p a month earlier, but still indicates expansion, not compression of the sector.

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The USTR (US Trade Representation) has published the concept of the US approach to the upcoming trade negotiations with the UK after the latter left the EU. Noting the importance of trade relations between the first and fifth economies of the world, the United States will proceed from the fact that Great Britain will be freed from the restrictions under which it operated while in the EU, which means the entire volume of mutual trade of $ 230 billion will be revised.

It is noted that "... numerous tariff and non-tariff barriers challenge US exporters in key sectors ...", that is, the US is openly and unequivocally preparing to revise the tariff policy in its favor. Leaving the EU, the UK will untie the hands of negotiators in the US who are ready to put forward a number of stringent requirements - full access to the British agricultural market, the elimination of phytosanitary barriers, which will support "... consumers, farmers, ranchers and workers in the US ..." . The British authorities will have to prepare for a noticeable deterioration in external economic conditions, and the pound in this situation may not realize the growth potential, which, as it is believed, has already been formed.

The pound will be traded in the range in anticipation of the results of voting in the parliament on March 12-14. With a small margin of negative, the price will gradually move to support 1.3170, but it is unlikely to go lower.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for March 4. The pair is still preparing to decline

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Wave counting analysis:

On Friday, March 1, bidding ended for EUR / USD with a couple of bp decrease. Thus, the wave pattern does not require any additions or corrections. And, accordingly, it remains unchanged - wave 4 can be completed, and if this is the case, the decline in quotations will continue from the current positions within the framework of the future wave 5 of the downward trend. The news background on Friday is composed of several information. News from America about business activity indices did not form dollar buyers, but inflation in the EU did not make euro buyers happy. Immediately, two unsuccessful attempts to make a breakthrough level of 61.8% Fibonacci indirectly indicate the pair's readiness to decline.

Sales targets:

1.1228 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1408 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1448 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair allegedly completed building wave 4 near the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. Thus, I recommend small sales of the pair, based on building a downward wave 5 with targets located near the level of 1.1230, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci, and a protective order above the level of 61.8%. Small - until wave 5 is developed.

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EURUSD: Fundamental indicators of the American economy are declining, but there is no reason for excitement

The euro rose after weak reports on the US economy, but buyers of risky assets did not receive support from major players, which led to profit taking and a decrease in the trading instrument in the afternoon.

A weak report on the spending of Americans indicates their more attentive attitude and some concern about the pace of economic growth. However, there is no reason to worry.

According to the US Department of Commerce, personal expenses in December 2018 fell by 0.5% compared with the previous month. With income, the situation remains more favorable. The report indicates that personal income in January decreased by 0.1%, but in December 2018, the growth was 1.0%.

Expenditure data in January was not provided due to the partial suspension of government work. Economists had expected spending to fall by 0.3% in December and revenue growth by 0.3% in January.

Activity in the US manufacturing sector is slowing. According to IHS Market, the final PMI purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector in February 2019 fell to 53.0 points against 54.9 points in January. Index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity. Economists had expected the index to be 54.0 points in February.

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In Market, it is noted that the decrease in the index may be temporary, as manufacturers say a steady improvement in the state of the sector.

US consumer sentiment worsened at the end of February, and it is not surprising. As stated in the University of Michigan report, the final consumer sentiment index in February 2019 fell to 98.3 points from 95.5 points last month. Economists predicted that the index will be 95.8 points.

The main decline in sentiment is associated with a partial suspension of the US government and volatility in the stock market. It should be noted that the overall level of trust remains quite positive.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. Buyers still need a return to the resistance level of 1.1385, and sellers have a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.1354. In the first scenario, you can wait for the update highs in the region of 1.1420 and 1.1460, while the second scenario will lead to an update of the minimum in areas 1.1320 and 1.1280.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar collapsed against the US dollar after it became known that Canadian economy growth slowed down in the 4th quarter. This happened due to a sharp decline in investment, as well as a fall in household spending.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, the gross domestic product of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2018 grew by 0.4% year on year, amounting to 2.063 trillion Canadian dollars. Let me remind you that back in the 3rd quarter, GDP growth was 2.0%. Economists had expected GDP growth in the 4th quarter to be 1.0%. For the whole of 2018, Canada's GDP growth was 1.8% against 3.0% in 2017.

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Trading recommendations for the currency pair GBPUSD - placement of trading orders (March 4)

By the end of the last trading week, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a high volatility of 114 points. As a result, it continued to form a corrective movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a coincidence of the forecast. The correctional movement continued, where the quotation with surgical accuracy reached the predicted Fibo level of 38.2 (1.3180), after which, the process of stopping followed the restoration. Information and news background had statistics for the UK. For February, there was a decline from 52.6 to 52.0 in manufacturing business index (PMI). . A similar indicator was published in the United States late in the evening at 18:00 Moscow time, where, in principle, they expected a decline from 56.6 to 55.5, but as a result, it received 54.2. Returning to the background information, we have regular splashes concerning Brexit. This time, the European skeptic conservatives represented by the European Research Group put forward to Theresa May the conditions under which they would support her at the ballot in parliament to approve the country's withdrawal from the EU. The terms of euro skeptics are directed towards controversial issues regarding the so-called backstop in Northern Ireland. Lawmakers also insist on a clearly worded, legally enforced provision that would uniquely predetermine the text of the agreement. The deal, according to euro skeptics, should contain something more than just mentioning the temporary nature of the mechanism of the backstop, as well as a clear description of Britain's s actions regarding the British-Irish border in case of a failure of trade negotiations with the European Union.

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Today, there is practically nothing in terms of the economic calendar. The only thing that can be singled out is the index of business activity in the UK construction sector in February, where they expect a decline from 50.6 to 50.3. In any case, we are listening to the informational background, which can give additional volatility in the market.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that there was a rollback towards 1.3250, after the quote reached the predicted Fibo level of 38.2 (1.3180) and then followed by a passing slowdown. A temporary amplitude oscillation 1,3200 / 1,3255 is probably assumed, where we analyze the boundaries for the breakdown.

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Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

- Positions to buy, as written in the previous review, traders were still looking at the value of 1.3180 on the subject of a rebound. If we do not have positions, it is better not to hurry and see and wait for a fix higher than 1.3325.

- We consider selling positions lower than 1.3200, but it is worth understanding that the transaction is classified as risky due to having a fulcrum. . The primary outlook is 1.3180. A more conservative approach is considered already lower than 1.3180.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sector of time frames (TF), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of a rollback from 1.3180 in the short term. On the other hand, intraday perspective focuses on correction and the medium-term perspective retains an upward interest.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 4, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 46 points. In this case, you need to look at the information background, if it is, then the volatility will increase, otherwise we will be clamped in the amplitude of 60-90 points.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1,3200 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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EUR / USD. March 4th. Trading system "Regression Channels". Dollar under slight pressure due to weak statistics

4 hour time frame

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Junior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -72.7924

On Monday (March 4), the currency pair EUR / USD turned out to be near the moving average line once again. On Friday, there were attempts to resume the upward movement, however, the failed macroeconomic statistics from the States and the European Union prevented traders from making a common decision. In the euro zone, a preliminary value for February was published. The CPI unexpectedly accelerated to 1.5%, but overall, this value remains extremely low. On the contrary, core inflation slowed down to 1.0%. And in the United States, the market manufacturing business index fell to 53.0, and the ISM index to 54.2. Although, in general, these values remain in the "green" zone, a negative trend is still visible to the naked eye. ISM index of gradual acceleration of inflation also turned out to be worse than market expectations, while consumer confidence index did not reach experts' forecasts. In such conditions, it would be logical to see a decline in the US dollar, however, the euro is now also under pressure from the market. Moreover, traders simply do not believe in a serious strengthening of the euro, and the US economy still looks much stronger and more stable than the EU economy. For today, the calendar of macroeconomic events of the countries of interest is absolutely empty to us.Therefore, one should not expect an increase in volatility.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1353

S2 - 1,1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

As indicated by the Heiken Ashi indicator, the EUR / USD currency pair has begun a new round of correction. Thus, it will be possible to open new longs after turning this indicator to the top with the target of 1.1414.

Sell orders can be viewed after the price is fixed below the moving average line. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to downward, and the first goal will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture, it should also be taken into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The markets will remain unchanged

Last week turned out to be quite eventful, but in fact did had no effect on the balance of power in the foreign exchange market, which still remains a captive of uncertainty and the lack of clear ideas among investors about what to expect in the future.

In general, observing the overall picture, it seems that big investors who have taken a wait-and-see position since the beginning of the year against the background of uncertainty around the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing still do not risk taking active actions, since there are clear signals that growth in the global economy is slowing, Chinese, European and already the US in particular, forcing investors not to hurry until it becomes clear what are the prospects for all that is happening in the markets.

Last week, Donald Trump said that he would not introduce an increase in trade duties of up to 25% on goods from China worth 200 billion dollars. This caused a surge of optimism and hope that the US-China trade agreement will be reached after all. On this wave, the US dollar was under pressure, but remained in the side ranges in the major currency pairs. The attitude of market players to other currencies also plays a significant role here. The euro remains under pressure on the wave of a clear decline in investor interest due to the fall in the growth of the European economy. The Sterling is a hostage of the tragicomedy called Brexit, where nothing is clear, but it is clear that the British elite are trying to sit out of the EU on two chairs, but at the same time retain many priority positions, including influence on Northern Ireland and other components of the United Kingdom.

As for the other major currencies, everything remains the same. The weakness of the US dollar is more than compensated by the lack of prospects for raising interest rates in Australia, New Zealand, Canada and especially in Japan. Although there is talk that the Swiss central bank may go for a one-time increase in interest rates, it will be difficult for it to do so, as this can lead to a rise in the cost of exports from the country that are already expensive and would make it less competitive.

To sum up, we note that our forecast for the short term remains the same. We expect lateral dynamics to continue, while at the same time low volatility in the foreign exchange market until the situation in the negotiation process between China and the United States is clarified, and it becomes clear how this will affect the states of the two largest economies in the world – the Chinese and American.

Forecast of the day:

The GBPUSD remains under pressure in the wake of the Brexit situation. If the price drops below 1.3200, there is a chance that it will continue to fall to 1.3190.

The USDCAD pair is trading in the range 1.3120-1.3310. If it does not overcome the level of 1.3310, then there is a possibility that on stabilization of oil prices, the pair may turn around and rush to the lower limit of the range of 1.3120.

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Trading Plan 03/04/2019

On the situation with Brexit: Key events postponed to March 12-13. On March 12, British Prime Minister Theresa May will vote on an agreement with the EU. If the agreement fails, the issue of Britain's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement will be put to a vote on March 13, and what everyone is waiting for is a question of postponing Britain's withdrawal from the EU to a later time.

There is information that Prime Minister May is trying to "buy" the missing votes - by offering to send additional funding of 1.6 billion pounds to poor regions.

There is information that the negotiations on trade between the US and China have made progress and the United States can cancel the high duties it imposed against China.

The main event for the EURUSD rate is the ECB's decision on monetary policy on Thursday. The position of the ECB and Draghi has so far been very tough in its over-softness - no talk of a rate hike. But if this position changes - the euro's behavior can change dramatically.

In the week - the report of the Fed "Beige Book" on Wednesday evening; US employment reports on Wednesday (ADP) and on Friday (NonFarm)

Euro: buy at break up to 1.1425 or

sell from 1.1315 downwards.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for March 4. The pound is ready to fall, but waiting for news

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Wave counting analysis:

On March 1, the pair lost about 55 bp. and thus, confirms the readiness to build a downward wave. If the current wave counting is correct, then the ascending set of waves is fully completed and the pair is also ready to build a downtrend trend. According to Fibonacci, the unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 127.2% also indirectly indicates the pair's readiness to decline. However, a lot will depend on the news background. So far, there are no fundamentally new messages on Brexit, but they can appear at any time which can be of any character. For example, a message about the signing of the Brexit agreement can send the pair far up, breaking the current wave marking.

Shopping goals:

1.3333 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3489 - 161.8% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2619 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the completion of the construction of the ascending wave and the transition to the construction of a downward set of waves. n unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 127.2% is a strong signal, so small sales are now expedient with a protective order above 1.3340. Meanwhile, larger sales are recommended when receiving negative news for a pound and with the development of a downward wave.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. March 4th. Trading system "Regression Channels". Theresa May received new requirements regarding Brexit conditions.

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Technical details:

Senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 1.6928

The GBP / USD currency pair has been adjusted to the moving average. However, it is difficult to overcome it yet. On Friday, it is not logical to strengthen the pound because of weak macroeconomic statistics that came from the United States. At the same time, we cannot also call the preceding growth of the pound as reasonable. Thus, we still recommend to pay attention to the technical factors. At the moment, the completion of the correction is indicated by the technician signals, the preservation of the uptrend, and the purple bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator. In the meantime, a new information has been received from the UK regarding the Brexit procedure. This time, several euro-skeptic parliamentarians turned to Teresa May with an ultimatum. The essence of which is that if the mechanism of "back-stop" is not clearly written down on paper and the precise actions of Great Britain in the event of the failure of trade negotiations with the EU are not spelled out, then its version of the agreement will not receive support during the voting procedure to be held on March 12. There is nothing new in principle. The issue with "backstop" remains at the cornerstone. And it is precisely due to the British Parliament's decision to refuse Theresa May's plan. Today, the index of business activity in the construction sector will be published in the UK and it can even have a certain impact on the movement of the pair.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3306

R2 - 1.3428

R3 - 1.3550

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD has completed a round of downward correction. Thus, purchase orders with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3367 became relevant again. Heiken Ashi's turn down will indicate a new round of correction.

It is recommended to open a sell position if the bears are able to overcome the movement. In this case, there is a trend in the instrument changing it to a downward movement. The first goal will be the Murray level "3/8" - 1.3062.

In addition, the fundamental data and the time of their release should be taken into account to the technical picture.

Explanations for illustrations;

The senior linear regression channel is shown on the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is presented by the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator signified by colored bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 4, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday, the euro had once again completed the technical level of 1.1407 and, as with the previous three days, rolled back to the support of the Krusenstern line of the daily scale. Technical indicators have changed only on the four-hour chart - the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is more firmly consolidated in the decline zone. But at the same time, the support zone has narrowed, overcoming which opens the way for a further decline - 1.1345/48 - the zone of concentration of Fibonacci lines on H4 (38.2%) and the price channel on daily, Kruzenshtern lines on both scales.

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Investors are waiting for three main events regarding the euro: the ECB meeting on Thursday, data on employment in the US on Friday and the course of trade negotiations between the US and China. All of these events are expected to shift in the direction of the dollar; the ECB, as expected, will not change its rhetoric on monetary policy due to the deteriorating economic data in the eurozone and the end of Mario Draghi's powers in May; in an optimistic way. The unemployment rate in the United States is expected to decrease from 4.0% to 3.9%, the talks between the Americans and the Chinese are going in an optimistic direction.

We are waiting for a breakthrough of support and the euro's decline to 1.1215 – the low on 13 November last year.

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Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for March 4. Is the hike pound sterling completed?

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD pair reversed in favor of the US dollar near the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.3300 and began the process of falling in the direction of the correction level 76.4% - 1.3094. Releasing the pair on March 4 from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the British currency and a return to the correction level of 100.0%. On the other hand, closing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will similarly work in favor of resuming growth in the direction of the correction level 127.2% - 1.3530.

The Fib net is built on the extremums from September 20, 2018 and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair reversed in favor of the British pound and consolidated above the correction level of 100.0% - 1.3217. As a result, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level 127.2% - 1.3337 today. None of the indicators have maturing divergences on the current chart. Fixing quotes under the level of 100.0% will work in favor of the American currency and the resumption of decline in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.3111.

The Fib net is built on the extremes from January 25, 2019 and February 14, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Now, purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with a target of 1.3337 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 100.0%, as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.3217 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD pair can be carried out with the target at 1.3111 and a Stop Loss order above the 100.0% level if the pair closes below the 1.3217 level (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for March 4, 2019

Ahead of the ECB Press Conference and main refinancing rate decision this week, EUR is currently quite weak against USD but any positive outcome in the nearest days may encourage EUR gains.

The eurozone is facing an economic slowdown which has been confirmed by official economic data. So, the ECB is widely expected to maintain the key interest rate at the record low levels. On Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a closely watched press conference after the policy meeting. The main refinancing rate is likely to be held unchanged at 0.00%. At the press conference, the ECB is due to unveil the updated forecast. In case of positive and optimistic economic projections, EUR could gain ground in response.

Today Spanish Unemployment Change report is going to be published which is expected to have a significant positive result of decreasing to 5.0k from the previous figure of 83.5k, SENTIX Investor Confidence is expected to increase to -3.1 from the previous figure of -3.7, and the eurozone's PPI is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of -0.8%.

On the other hand, the US-China trade deal is expected to be finalized by March 27. If the deal is actually concluded, USD could respond with impulsive gains. This week the Federal Budget Balance is going to be published which is expected to increase to 6.2B from the previous figure of -13.5B. On Friday, the US Labor Department is due to release NFP. The report is likely to show mixed readings which can lead to certain indecision in the market sentiment. Moreover, FED Chairman Jeromy Powell is going to speak on Friday about the monetary policy normalization. Today US Construction Spending report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.8%, though it is expected to be dovish but any positive outcome may lead to certain gains in the process.

Meanwhile, EUR finds support from the upcoming economic reports as anaysts hope for positive readings. Market indecision on USD may lead to certain weakness in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading above the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well as 1.1300 area after an impulsive bullish momentum following a bearish false breakout. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well as the 1.1300 support area, the bullish momentum is expected to continue further in the coming days.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. USD / JPY review for the week of March 4

Large TF:

It was March last year when an upward wave model is formed on the Japanese Yen major chart. In the wave structure, the first 2 parts are completed (A + B).

Small TF:

Starting on January 3, the bull segment is expected to have a strong potential. The coincidence of wave patterns on a rhinestone of several scales forms a "domino" effect. This occurs when the structure jumps to the next level without oncoming movements on the chart.

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Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming days, a short- term pullback is not excluded, after which the pair will continue to rise. The calculated resistance shows the nearest zone, from which a full correction is likely to happen. Traders are advised to track buy signals.

Resistance zones:

- 113.30 / 113.80

Support areas:

- 111.20 / 110.70

Explanations to the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A - B - C). On each of the considered scales of the graph, the last incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis. Review EUR / USD for the week of March 4

Large TF:

Throughout the past year, the main vector of the movement of the major euro has been the bearish rate. The wave structure does not show completeness. In the last 4 months, the price mainly moves in the "side", forming the middle part (B) of the upward correction.

Small TF:

The rising wave started in November last year as a standard plane. Since January 10, it formed in the middle part of the structure. In the last 2 weeks, there was an intermediate pullback preceding the final pull down.

analytics5c7cc9687274e.jpg

Forecast and recommendations:

Until the correction is completed, entry into the market of the pair can be quite risky. Sales have little potential. After the end of the current decline, t is recommended to pay attention to the buy signals.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1390 / 1.1440

Support areas:

- 1.1230 / 1.1180

Explanations to the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). At each of the considered scales of the graph, the last, incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author with the solid background showing the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not consider the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EUR/USD for March 4, 2019

EUR/USD is at a crucial junction. Short- and medium-term trend remain bearish as long as price is below 1.1430-1.15 respectively. Zooming out we observe that EUR/USD continues to hold above the long-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement while the bullish divergence signs give a warning to bears. However no sign of strength has been shown yet.

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Red lines - bullish divergence

Black line - resistance

As long as EUR/USD is trading below the black trend line resistance trend remains bearish and there is still danger of one more new low towards 1.10-1.11. Breaking above 1.1430 will open the way for a move towards 1.15 and higher, maybe 1.17. So far trend remains mostly neutral in the weekly time frame as prices continue to trade sideways between 1.13-1.15. Short-term support remains at 1.1350 and next at 1.13 while resistance is at 1.14-1.1425.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for Gold for March 4, 2019

Gold price has made a strong reversal from $1,340 area as expected. Gold price has pulled back right at the lower channel boundary and 38% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $1,196. For a move towards $1,350-60 to be seen next, Gold bulls must step in now and push prices back above $1,300 and stay above it.

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Blue lines - medium-term bullish channel

Black lines - contracting triangle pattern

Gold price remains inside the long-term triangle boundaries, but space starts running out. Price has reached the upper triangle boundary and major resistance area at $1,350-60. In the medium-term Gold price remains inside the bullish channel and has reached the important 38% Fibonacci retracement. A bounce should follow soon if we are going to see over the coming months the $1,350-60 level. A break below the channel and staying below $1,300 would be a bearish sign implying that Gold is heading back towards the lower triangle boundary around $1,200.

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GBP/USD technical analysis for 04/03/2019

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made the largest correction in the whole upswing from the level of 1.2772, so the overbalance of the price and time is now present on the chart. This means the recent move down is not a part of the move up, but a separate down cycle, possibly a corrective in nature. The overall trend is still up, so any down moves are considered as a corrective anyway. The target for the bears is seen at the level of 1.3155, or 1.3139, or 1.3127 (a wall of supports down there). The momentum remains neutral to bullish as it slightly bounces from its fifty levels as the market is coming off the overbought conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3631

WR2 - 1.3485

WR1 - 1.3333

Weekly Pivot - 1.3193

WS1 - 1.3047

WS2 - 1.2894

WS3 - 1.2742

Trading Recommendations:

All buy orders from the last week should be still kept open, but the daytraders should open sell orders with a target set at the level of 1.3155, 1.3139 and 1.1327. As long as the 38% Fibonacci retracement at the level of 1.3120 is not clearly violated there is still a pretty good chance for the trend resumption in the nearest future.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 4. A slight increase in eurozone inflation is not a reason for joy

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Today, euro buyers need to return to the resistance level of 1.1386, as it failed to clutch to last Friday, which led to the formation of a new downward channel. A consolidation above 1.1386 for today will make it possible to preserve the bullish nature of the market, which will lead to the renewal of the weekly high around 1.1417, where I recommend taking profits. In case of weak data on producer prices in the eurozone, it is best to consider new long positions in EUR/USD after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1354 or a rebound from the low of 1.1317.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Friday's weak data for the eurozone and the US kept the pair in a narrow price range, but the advantage is on the side of the euro sellers. As long as trading continues below the border of 1.1386, the pressure on EUR/USD will continue. The formation of a false breakdown at this level after the release of the report on producer prices in the eurozone will be a direct signal to sell the euro in order to decline and breakdown support at 1.1354. This in turn will lead to a larger sale to the area of a low of 1.1317, where I recommend taking profits. Under the scenario that the euro increases above the resistance of 1.1386, it is best to consider new short positions for a rebound from a high of 1.1417 and 1.1459.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading near the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty, with a slight advantage of sellers.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.1354 could lead to a new euro sale. Growth will be limited to the upper boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1390, where you can see sales of the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 4. The pressure on the pound may continue

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Growth last week following the news on Brexit and the likely extension of the UK's exit from the EU has ended. Now buyers need more solid guidelines. From a technical point of view, only the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.3204 will lead to an increase in the pound. However, it is better to open larger long positions on the rebound from a low of 1.3144. The main task of the bulls will be to break and consolidate above the resistance of 1.3276, which will lead the pound to new highs in the area of 1.3346 and 1.3386.

To open short positions on GBP/USD it is required:

The downward correction of the pound is coming to an end. Therefore, it is best to look for new long positions after rising to large resistance levels. One of them is the area of 1.3276, an unsuccessful consolidation above which will be an additional signal to open short positions in order to test the lows of 1.3204 and 1.3144, where I recommend taking profit. In case of growth in the first half of the day above the high of 1.3276, short positions can be returned to the rebound of resistance at 1.3346. The main goal of the bears at the beginning of the week will be the breakdown of support at 1.3204, which will only increase the pressure on the pair.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a possible downward correction.

Bollinger Bands

Breakthrough of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3200 will lead to a new wave of the pound's decline.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD technical analysis for 04/03/2019

EUR/USD technical analysis for 04/03/2019:

Are you ready for the sell-off?

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair is having big trouble to break through the technical resistance at the level of 1.1403 and through the 61% Fibo retracement at 1.1407, so the bears are pushing event more in order to get to the lower price levels. The price action indicates, that another Pin Bar candle was made after the bulls failed to rally higher and now lower prices are expected. The first target is seen at the level of 1.1324, the second target is seen at the level of 1.1316. The momentum remains neutral, so it might take a while for bears to push the market lower and increase the downward momentum. Please notice the orange trend line is violated and tested from the bottom as well, so this is another indication of the lower prices to come soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1499

WR2 - 1.1457

WR1 - 1.1406

Weekly Pivot - 1.1363

WS1 - 1.1314

WS2 - 1.1271

WS3 - 1.1224

Trading Recommendations:

All sell orders from the last week should be still kept open with a target set at the level of 1.1324 and 1.1316. The main trend is still down, so this recent move up was so far only a correction in a downtrend and a failure to break through the 61% Fibo confirms this assumption.

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