EUR/NZD: analysis for July 21, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD is moving downwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6359 in a volume above the average. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak downward bar in a volume below the average. There is also an inside-bar formation at the level of 16677 (held successful) and a low (support) at 1.6340. Watch for a potential breakout of inside-bar support or resistance. Besides, the price has broke our upward trendline. The short-term trend is neutral, but the mid-term trend is still bullish. I am still waiting for larger liquidity and stronger price actions to confirm the further direction.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6595

R2: 1.6645

R3: 1.6728

Support levels:

S1: 1.6440

S2: 1.6390

S3: 1.6312

Trading recommendations: Buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky since we have the fake breakout in the background.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around the level $1,106.00 at the moment, looking for an opportunity to get higher towards at least $1,130.00/40.00. Please note that $1,130.00/40.00 is the past support turned resistance and also the fibonacci 0.382 resistance of a drop between $1,205.00 and $1,187.00 respectively. It is hence recommended to remain flat now and look to enter short around $1,130.00/40.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,087.00 (interim), followed by $1,052.00, $1,030.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $1,130.00/40.00 followed by $1,175.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for July 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be trading around $14.80 levels at the moment, after having printed interim highs at $15.00 levels earlier. Please note that the metal seems have hit a low at $14.55 yesterday. A morning star candlestick pattern is also seen on the hourly charts, indicating at least a pullback if not reversal. It is hence recommended to remain long for now, with risk at $14.25. Immediate support is seen at $14.55/60 levels (interim), followed by $14.0, $13.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $15.50 (interim) followed by $15.45, $15.85, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $14.25, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY is back above 135.00 at the moment and should be taken out towards at least 135.20/30 in this swing rally. Please note that the pair has bounced off the 0.786 fibonacci support level (134.00) when ralling between 133.25 to 137.75 respectively. It is recommended to remain long with risk at 133.00. Immediate support is seen at 133.00/25 (interim) followed by 131.50 and lower while resistance is seen at 135.25/30 (interim) followed by 136.25, 137.75, 139, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 133.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 21, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around the 1.4930 levels after printing lows around 1.4923 as expected and discussed yesterday. As depicted here, the pair is still expected to push lower towards the 1.4800 levels before reversing. Please also note that the support/rising trendline is also passing through the same region along with Fibonacci 0.382 support of the rally between the 1.4475 and 1.5025 levels respectively. Hence it is recommended to hold short positions for now with risk at the 1.5050 levels. Immediate support is seen at the 1.4900 levels followed by 1.4850 and lower, while resistance is seen at the 1.5030 levels (interim) followed by 1.5100 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now. Stop is at 1.5050, target is 1.4800.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 21, 2015

The weekly technical analysis of EUR/USD pair:

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Overview:

  • It should be noticed that there is no gap this week because the EUR/USD pair has opened at the same price it had closed last week. This week, the pivot point sets at the level of 1.0951 and the weekly support 1 is seen at 1.0705. Therefore, the market will probably indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.0705 and the weekly pivot point will act as minor resistance. So, according to the previous events, the price has still been moving between the levels of 1.0828 and 1.0951. Thenceforward, the area above 1.0828 (above the weekly double bottom) calls for further upside with the first target at 1.0915 in order to test the minor resistance and continue towards 1.3805. However, stop loss should be placed below the weekly support 1 (1.0705).
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Gold : analysis for July 21, 2015

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Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the level of $1,106.00. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a strong downward bar in an ultra-high volume (selling climax), so selling at this stage looks risky. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe low volatility and weak price actions. Since the price has broken support at $1,132.00, we may expect potential testing of the level of $1,035.00 (monthly support). Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. Selling climax is active so selling at this stage looks risky because of a possible bullish correction.The resistance level is around $1,118.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,124.00

R2: 1,132.00

R3: 1,146.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,097.00

S2: 1,088.70

S3: 1,075.00

Trading recommendations: Supply in an ultra high volume (selling climax) on the market in the background. Selling gold at this stage looks risky, so watch for potential retracement. Also, every selling climax is potentialyl hidden buying by professionals, so trade carefuly.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 21, 2015

The weekly technical analysis of GBP/USD pair:

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Trading recommendations:

  • According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is going to move between the levels of 1.5503 and 1.5675 (the double top). Also, it should be noted that the weekly pivot point is found at 1.5576. So, if the trend succeeds to break the weekly pivot point at 1.5576, our advice will be to buy above the level of 1.5576 with the first target at 1.5630. Additionally, the trend will be able to continue toward the level of 1.5675, which represents the double top in the H1 chart.

Notes:

  • If the trend is of an upside character, the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.
  • Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account. Fibonacci is in a range trade; it looks like the trend is trapped and going up or down. If you sell or buy for a long term in this period, you will surely lose your profit.
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Preview:

  • R3 and S3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets as prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 and R3 or S2 and S3.
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Technical analysis of AUD/CHF for July 21, 2015

The change in the momentum for the AUD/CHF pair has been detected; it should result in a corrective wave up. After the pair bounced from the downtrend trendline, the price broke above the key resistance R1 (0.7092).

While the bullish divergence has been formed on longer- and short-term scales, it indicates that sentiment is changing in bulls favor. At the same time, the price rejected the uptrend trendline that could be a signal that AUD/CHF is ready to move higher today or this week.

Consider buying AUD/CHF near R1 targeting either R2 (0.7209) or R3 (0.7272) resistance levels taken from the Fibonacci applied to the 07.05 low and 14.05 high. One move lower than S1 (0.7042) could either result in the consolidation or continuation of the downtrend.

Support: 0.7042

Resistance: 0.7272, 0.7209, 0.7272

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Global macro overview for July 21, 2015

Global macro overview for 21/07/2015:

After almost a month of Greek negotiations with creditors, the market is now going back to the fundamentals. The creditors made some important decisions towards the future of the eurozone and the euro currency during the hectic weeks of negotiations with Greek people. It looks like the worst scenario for Greece (Grexit) has been avoided for now, so the market participants again can focus on the economic data from the EU. The first important news release is today's German IFO business climate indicator for the month of July. The market expects the number to be quite high at the level of 107.4 with the current assessment data at the level of 113.1.

The most liquid currency in the world is trading just above the key support at the level of 1.0815 at the time of writing.

The scheduled news release is as follows (GMT):

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate 107.4

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment 113.1

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations 102.0

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USDX technical analysis for July 21, 2015

The US Dollar Index remained strong yesterday despite weakness in the early trading hours. The price is now breaking above the 98 resistance level increasing chances of success for the bullish scenario. The US Dollar Index could make a short-term pullback but othe verall trend remains bullish.

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Black lines - upward sloping channel

The US Dollar Index is inside an upward sloping channel. Tenkan-sen (red line) support is held for now. If broken we could see a push towards the lower channel boundary and most probably towards the kijun-sen indicator (yellow line).

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Blue line - horizontal resistance

The weekly chart remains bullish and now that the recent high at 98 is broken, the bullish scenario of new highs gains even more points. Tenkan- and kijun-sen are positively sloped, price is making higher highs and higher lows. I remain bullish.

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Technical analysis of AUD/CAD for July 21, 2015

The fall in commodity prices badly hurts the Australian economy. After the commodities super cycle, iron prices have been falling very badly. The recent gold prices added some more pressure to the AUD.

Goldman Sachs expects iron ore prices to continue to fall until the second quarter of 2016.

The nuclear deal makes oil prices move lower. Lower oil prices directly effects the Canadian economy.

At yesterday's session, data on the Canadian whole sales came out on the down side. Wholesale sales decreased by 1.0% to $54.5 billion in May, following two consecutive periods of increases.

Technical view: The cross has been trading on a bearish bias. The cross re-test 0.9400 three times in 15 months, but successfully managed to close above that. The 20Dsma is found at 0.9515, 50Dsma is found at 0.9515 and 20Wsma is seen at 0.9570. Traders can keep an eye on this cross, big moves are likely to take place in coming days. A weekly close below 0.9400 opens gayes to a big fall. In the weekly charts, we can observe a big head and shoulder pattern. The cross has been testing the neck line.

In the daily chart, the cross formed a double top at 0.9587 and 0.9617 again. The intraweek pattern shifts to mild-buying with sl 0.9500. We recommend fresh selling below 0.9500 towards 0.9420 and 0.9400.

Intraday support is found at 0.9550, 0.9520 and 0.9510. Resistance is seen at 0.9575, 0.9587, and 0.9617. Small buying is available above 0.9600 with targets at 0.9615, 0.9630, and 0.9660.

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Forecast of AUD/USD for July 21, 2015

RBA meeting minutes were released at today's Asian session. The Board decided to leave the rate unchanged at 2.0%.

Members noted that global economic conditions remained consistent with growth in Australia's major trading partners being around average over the period ahead.

Domestically, the key forces shaping the economy over the past year were much as they had been for some time. Very low interest rates supported strong growth in dwelling investment and, together with strong housing prices, underpinned consumption growth.

Recent data indicated that employment had grown more rapidly than the population and the unemployment rate had been relatively stable since the latter part of the previous year.

Commodity prices fell further and the Australian dollar was depreciated over the past month. Although the exchange rate against the US dollar was close to levels last seen in 2009, the decline in the Australian dollar had been more modest in terms of a basket of currencies.

AUD/USD

The aussie bounce froma 6-year low ahead of the RBA minutes. After the minutes, the aussie volatility was arrested at the Asian session. US dollar bulls are unlikely to lose their grip. Traders eye Q2 inflation readings and RBA governor Stevens's speech scheduled for tomorrow.

The cross found support at 0.7268 and 0.7233. The cross is trading at 0.7369 at the Asian session. In the daily chart, the recent price movement brought 0.7349 as the key level to watch on a daily closing basis. The real selling ignites below 0.7230 for another 200 pips fall. The fall in commodity prices badly hurts the Australian economy. After the commodities super cycle, iron prices have been falling very badly. The recent gold prices added some more pressure to the AUD.

For an intraweek period, the cross favors selling on a rise. In an extreme case, the cross can climb towards 0.7460, but it is unlikely to happen. Use rises to sell with sl 0.7500. The intraday support is found at 0.7330 and 0.7300. Fresh selling is available below 0.7300 with targets at 0.7270, 0.7250, and 0.7230. A low around 0.7300 is likely to be reached today.

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Gold technical analysis for July 21, 2015

Gold price bounced yesterday after a sharp decline towards $1,090. It managed to reach only the 38% retracement. The price has been sliding lower since then last night we saw gold prices going back below $1,100 once again. With $1,095 as a short-term low support, gold prices try to bounce again, but the trend remains bearish.

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Blue line - trend line resistance

Gold prices remain below the blue trend-line resistance and the Ichimoku cloud. As long as the price is below $1,130-40 resistance we should be heading towards $1,030 or even $900. The price bounced right at the 38% retracement and got rejected. Short-term resistance is seen at $1,120. If it gets broken, we could see a bounce towards the 61.8% retracement of $1,135.

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Blue line- long-term trend line support

Red lines - equal size decline projection

The blue trend-line support is broken. Unless we see a back test towards $1,135-40 soon, we should expect a decline in gold prices to be of similar size to the distance from the trend-line support to the January highs. So, gold is expected to move towards $1,000 or even lower in coming weeks.

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Global macro overview for July 21, 2015

Global macro overview for 21/07/2015:

Last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia released minutes from its monetary policy meeting. The Australian central bank admitted the currency is overvalued on current market levels, however it looks like the bank wants to keep it this way and further cuts are not on the table right now. The biggest impact on the Australian economy came from a falling mining investment, unemployment at 6% and subdued wages. The current interest rates are at 2%, so there is still a room for a further cuts.

The AUD/USD technical picture reveals no big surprises as the AUD is slowly but surely falling to test the key support at the level of 0.7266.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 21, 2015

General overview for 21/07/2015 09:00 CET

As mentioned yesterday, the sideways corrective cycle will continue for some time now in wave 2 black or wave alt: iv green. Nevertheless, it is still a correction that has tested the golden trendline from the downside and got rejected right on the level of 1.3022. Please notice the market is trading in a tight range, but a breakout to the upside is expected to complete the impulsive wave progression. The first weekly technical target for both counts is seen at the level of 1.3072. Only a sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2804 would invalidate the bullish scenario.

Support/Resistance:

1.3072 - WR3

1.3022 - WR2

1.3006 - WR1

1.2955 - Weekly Pivot

1.2947 - Intraday Support

1.2932 - WS1

1.2890 - WS2

1.2862 - WS3

1.2804 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Buying on dips is the way to trade on this market and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only if the level of 1.2947 is clearly violated ( hourly candle close below this level).

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 21, 2015

General overview for 21/07/2015 08:50 CET

Sideways consolidation continues fter a successful intraday test of the intraday support at 134.36. The market is range bounded between the levels of 135.04 and 134.36. A breakout to the upside is being expected, but any breakout below the intraday support at the level of 134.36 would extend a downfall towards the wave A blue support at the level of 133.28.

Support/Resistance:

135.77 - WR3

136.17 - WR2

135.34 - WR1

135.04 - Weekly Pivot

134.74 - Intraday Resistance

134.36 - Intraday Support

134.23 - WS1

133.89 - WS2

133.28 - Swing Low

133.09 - WS3

Trading recommendations:

Due to the sideways price action, trading advise is still valid: buying on dips is a way to trade on this market and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only if the level of 134.36 is clearly violated ( hourly candle close below this level).

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 21, 2015

EUR/USD: Bears have not shown any signs of relenting this week, although there was no significant movement on Monday. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern is intact in the market, and the support line at 1.0800 could be violated. In case the support line is successfully breached, the next target would be the support line at 1.0750.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair still epresses willingness to go further north by moving upward by 40 pips on Monday. This is a slight continuation of the current dominant bullish bias, and the resistance level at 0.9650 is under siege now. In case the resistance level gets breached to the upside, the next target would be the resistance level at 0.9700.

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GBP/USD: Irrespective of recent consolidation, there is still a clean bullish bias on the cable. For the bullish bias to continue being valid, the distribution territory at 1.5650 must be breached to the upside: otherwise there could be a risk of a strong bearish correction this week.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has been trending strongly for the most part of this month. The price has closed above the demand level at 124.00, going towards the supply level at 124.50. Should that supply level be broken to the upside, the next target would be another supply level of 125.00.

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EUR/JPY: The fate of the EUR/JPY pair would continue to be determined by whatever happens to the euro. The euro is currently weak - hence the bearish outlook on the cross. The bearish outlook can only be reversed in case the euro becomes significantly strong.

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Forecast of Gold for July 21, 2015

The metal lost 4% at yesterday's session closing below the level of 1100.00.

About 3.3 million physical contracts for the metal were traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. In the South Africa, the mining sector waged negotiations resumed on Monday.

The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust holdings, faced a decline in output of 0.26% to 694.46 tons compared to the previous day.

China official Gold reserves hit the level of 1658 tons at the end of the previous month. This was the first reported increase in 6 years.

Indian government curbs gold imports. India is the second largest customer of the precious metal after China. The rural economy has been struggling for a while in India. This factor influences gold sales along with two-wheeler, tractor, and FMCG sales.

The nuclear agreement with Iran depresses commodities like gold and crude.

Barclays says if the price of gold falls below $ 1,100.00, gold production will be vulnerable.

Technical forecast: In the weekly chart, the metal manage to hold the channel support trend line finds at $1,085.00.

The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below a large bearish head & shoulders pattern. In all time frames, the precious metal lost all moving averages.

At yesterday's session, we advised to refrain from fresh selling. Selling accelerates only below $1,085.00. Selling on a rise is likely to be profitable.

Intraday support is found at $1,094.00 and $1,085.00. Resistance is seen at $1,108.00, $1,120.00, and $1,134.00. The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,068.00, and $1,060.00. The metal is likely to test $1,068.00 initially and $1,045.00 and $1,005.00 later. The level of $9,65.00 is likely to be hit in the next 6 months in the extreme case. The strong supply zone is seen at $1,134.00, $1,142.00, and $1,163.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,063 and $1,045.00 in the near term.

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Forecast of GBP/USD for July 21, 2015

At yesterday's session, the cable rejected at 20Dsma again, falling below 50Dsma, but managing to close above that level. It was the 4th consecutive day in a row.

The near-term picture turns bearish, as the cable is likely to re-test 1.5500. It has been moving towards higher lows and higher highs in the daily chart.

Earlier in July, the cable broke the 20Dsma, but was unable to close above it. In the near term, it seems to be capped at 1.5700. A strong close above 1.5600 20Dsma is likely to enable bulls to come back on track, aiming to breach the 1.5700 mark. In this case, gates to 1.5800 will be open.

The cable broke the 3-month ascending trendline and failed to close above that. These are few factors supporting the near-term bearish view towards 1.5500.

The 50Wsma is found at 1.5600 and the 20Wsma 1.5270.

Recently, the S&P lowered the British 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.6 % (previously expected growth of 2.8%), but improves the forecast for GDP in the eurozone.

Bulls: The cable gave a break from the bullish broadening wedge closing above that. The trend favors buying on dips with sl 1.5450. The 50Dsma is found at 1. 5560 and 100Dems is found at 1.5440.

Intraday support is found at 1.5540 and resistance is seen at 1.5575, 1.5600, and 1.5610. At yesterday's session, the cable hit a low at 1.5538. The intraday key zone to watch is located between 1.5510 and 1.5500, selling will accelerate below these levels towards 1.5450 during a day.

We can observe a bearish h&s pattern in the H1 chart. The cable has been managing to hold the neck line, but it is unlikely to go further to 1.5450. Safe selling is available below 1.5520 with targets at 1.5500, 1.5485, 1.5450, and 1.5435.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 21, 2015

Given lack of macroeconomic data, today is understandably a quiet day on the euro and USD markets. Things should pick up rapidly on Friday, however as we don't have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward.

The pair closed below 20Wsma. The pair reached a large distribution territory between 1.1467 and 1.1437. In the daily chart, the pair lost all moving averages. The nearest support is found at 1.0785. We advised selling on rises with a target at 1.0720. The 20Wsma is seen at 1.1080. In different time intervals (hourly and daily charts), the oscillators indicate oversold levels.

The pair has been reaching lower lows and lower highs, falling below the lower end of the ascending trendline. We recommend fresh selling only below 1.0780 with an initial target at 1.0720 and extending towards 1.0630 later.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0840, 1.0870, and 1.0910. Support is found at 1.0790, 1.0750, and 1.0720.

Weekly resistance is seen at 1.0920, 1.0960, and 1.0980. Support is found at 1.0790, 1.0720, and 1.0650.

Monthly support is found at 1.0730.

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Daily analysis of USDX for July 21, 2015

On the daily chart, The USDX is reaching new monthly highs above the key support level of 97.57 and it is expected to test the level of 99.15, when a breakout takes place above 98.29. However, we could expect a pullback when the Index achieves that territory, because it is overbought in lower time frames.

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The USDX is trading sideways below the resistance level of 98.22, which is a very important zone in the current bullish intraday structure. If USDX breaks that level, it would be expected to test the next high around 99.02. The 200 SMA is slightly bullish, and the MACD indicator remains at positive territory on the H1 chart.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.29 / 99.15

Daily chart's support levels: 97.57 / 96.57

H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.22 / 99.02

H1 chart's support levels: 97.72 / 97.53

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.72, take profit is at 98.22, and stop loss is at 97.41.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 21, 2015

GBP/USD has been trading above the 200 SMA, looking for an opportunity to reach the resistance level of 1.5640, a zone which was tested during the last week. However, we should be aware of a breakout at the support level of 1.5543 that could change the focus to the downside (more specific at the level of 1.5450). The MACD indicator is at neutral territory.

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On the H1 chart, the pair continues performing lower swings and now it is trading below the 200 SMA with a possible bearish pattern. If GBP/USD successfully achieves that pattern, it would be expected to test the support level of 1.5524. In the bullish side, a breakout above the level of 1.5596 will open doors to visit the price zone around 1.5639.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5640 / 1.5755

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5596 / 1.5639

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5524 / 1.5485

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5596, take profit is at 1.5639, and stop loss is at 1.5554.

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