EUR/USD analysis for February 11, 2019

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EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price did a breakout of the key short-term multi-pivot trendline (1.3000), which is a sign that sellers are in control. The next important support levels are set at 1.1240 and at the price of 1.1215. The short-term trend is bearish and you should watch for selling opportunities.

Trading recommendation: We are short EUR/USD from 1.1300 with targets at 1.1240 and 1.1216. Protective stop is placed at 1.1335.

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GBP / USD. Britain's economy has slowed down, but the pound will wait for May's speech

The British currency today received another blow. Data on the growth of GDP and industrial production were in the "red zone", demonstrating a rather significant slowdown. The almost three-year period of uncertainty affects the main macroeconomic indicators of the country, and this fact is increasingly reminded of itself. Against the background of such trends, the negative news on Brexit is felt by traders especially acutely. Unfortunately, the latest news regarding the prospects of the "divorce process" is extremely negative and alarming.

So, the growth of the British economy has slowed. Official figures today confirmed the fears of many experts and analysts. On a quarterly basis, the indicator fell to 0.2% (after rising to 0.6% in the third quarter of 2018), and in annual terms to 1.3% after rising to 1.6%. On a monthly basis, a similar picture emerged. GDP in December fell into a negative area (for the first time since last February), reaching a level of -0.4%. In other words, after temporary growth, the British economy slowed down again, contrary to certain hopes of economists.

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Some structural parameters of the published release even set an anti-record. Thus, the rate of business investment has been falling for four quarters in a row (that is, throughout the past year). This persistent trend has not been for almost 20 years, to be more precise, since 1992. On the other hand, such a dynamic is quite understandable, since Britain has been living in a mode of uncertainty for the third year already, and among the possible scenarios for the development of events (and the most real ones) is the chaotic exit of the country from the EU. It is obvious that such fundamental conditions have spoiled the investment climate in the country for such a long time, and the published figures only reflected this fact.

Greatly disappointed and data on the volume of industrial production in Britain. Let me remind you that in August last year, this indicator (on a monthly basis) dropped to zero. In September, it went out at the same level, and in October, it collapsed into a negative area, from where it cannot get out until now. Today, experts expected a positive trend (up to 0.1%), but their forecasts did not come true. The indicator not only remained in the negative zone but also showed the most negative trend since April last year.

The production sector turned out to be the weakest link in the release, it fell immediately to -0.7%. In monthly terms, this is the strongest decline since January of the year before last. In general, the decline in production was recorded in nine of the twelve sectors. The production of pharmaceutical preparations stands out particularly strongly (in a negative sense), the indicator fell to -5%.

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Almost all experts unanimously blame Brexit for everything that happens. March 29 is inexorably approaching, while London and Brussels are still at opposite poles of opinion. Literally, over the weekend, Theresa May rejected the script that could bring the situation out of the impasse.

Let me remind you that the Europeans "strongly recommended" to listen to the leader of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbyn, who offered to keep Britain within the framework of a customs union with the EU. In this case, he assured the prime minister that the Labor Party would ensure a positive vote on the draft deal, thereby compensating for the lack of votes among the conservatives. In other words, Brussels supported the idea of Labor, who, in turn, was ready to put an end to the long-term epic of the negotiation process.

However, Theresa May "in tatters" criticized this initiative. On Sunday, she published an open letter, where she rejected the proposed idea in a rather harsh manner. In particular, she said that Britain should have the opportunity to conclude its own trade deals, and the laborists only offer to participate in the trade policy of the European Union, giving London a "supporting role".

In other words, the next hopes of the supporters of the "soft" Brexit collapsed. The situation remains in limbo. According to the spokeswoman Theresa May, she will make a statement tomorrow in parliament regarding further prospects in this matter. What the prime minister will say is not known for certain. But, according to a number of experts, tomorrow, May will "probe the soil" regarding the postponement of the Brexit date. And although she had previously categorically rejected this option, it seemed she had no other choice.

Brussels showed its principles and did not agree to provide London with legal guarantees regarding the operation of the backstop regime. May, in turn, refused to go on about the Europeans, rejecting the idea of Labor. The situation has again come to a standstill, but at the same time, no one is interested in the "hard" Brexit, so the postponement of Brexit's date, in my opinion, is the most likely scenario. If these experts' forecasts are justified, the pound will receive strong support, since in this case the probability of the chaotic Brexit will again decrease.

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GBP / USD: Great Britain is one step away from recession. Future outlook of the British pound movement

The British pound has once again tested the strength of the support level of 1.2922, which did not withstand the pressure after the release of disappointing fundamental statistics on the state of the UK economy, which continues to slow against the background of a number of political and economic events.

According to the report, the UK GDP grew by only 0.7% on an annualized basis in the 4th quarter of 2018 against the 2.5% growth in the 3rd quarter. As for December, the economy shrunk by 0.4% compared in November, which indicates an approaching recession.

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It should be noted that the fall of WFP is directly related to the fact that a number of UK companies reduced investment in front of a serious problem, about which only lazy people are not talking recently (which of course refers to Brexit). The growing uncertainty regarding the country's withdrawal from the European Union and the likelihood of indiscriminate exit makes the outlook of not only companies but also consumers to be more cautious in the future, which affects mood and spending. The reduction in investment in 2018 was 0.9%, and this is the strongest drop since 2009 after the financial crisis.

The National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain also noted that the Gross Domestic Product grew by only 1.4% in 2018 compared with the previous year, which is the weakest indicator since 2012.

Against this background, the decline in the UK industrial production does not seem so serious contrary to economic growth forecasts.

According to the data, the industrial production in the UK decreased immediately by 0.5% in December 2018 compared in November and fell by 0.9% versus December 2017. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase in production. November data were revised to -0.3% and -1.3%, respectively.

A serious reduction was also noted in the manufacturing industry, where production fell immediately by 0.7% in December and by 2.1% compared with December 2017. Economists had expected a 0.4% increase in manufacturing.

Without surprise, data on the growth of the UK foreign trade deficit were also perceived.

According to the report, the deficit of foreign trade in goods in the UK amounted to 12.1 billion pounds in December, while it was projected at 12.0 billion pounds. The UK trade deficit with non-EU countries in December was at 3.6 billion pounds.

As for the technical aspect of the GBP/USD pair, surprisingly a serious collapse of the pound did not happen, although important support levels were broken. As long as trading is below the 1.2920 range, pressure on the trading instrument will continue and a breakthrough in the minimum of 1.2890 may lead to a larger sale of the pound with access to the support of 1.2810 and 1.2760.

Having fixed above the resistance of 1.2940, if the bulls return the market position then the trade will move to the side channel with the upper border of 1.3000 and support in the area of 1.2850.

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Analysis of Gold for February 11, 2019

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Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,304.00. According to the H4 time frame, I found that Gold did a successful breakout of the bearish flag pattern (ABC correction) which is a sign that selling continues. I also found confirmed the Head and Shoulders pattern in the background which is another sign of weakness. Key short-term support is set at the price of $1,297.50.

Trading recommendation: We are short on Gold from $1,305.00 and with the targets at $1,297.50-$1,275.80. Protective stop loss order is placed at $1.318.00.

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UK economy in 2018 worse than in 2012. How will the pound behave?

The British economy went into decline in the last three months of last year, which resulted in the growth in 2018 to be the weakest in the last six years. Overall, growth rates fell to 1.4 percent compared with 1.8 percent in 2017. Exports are suffering from the weakness of the global economy and both consumers and businesses are increasingly concerned about the lack of a deal to leave Britain from the EU. Last week, the Bank of England lowered its growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1.2 percent this year, which will be the weakest since the 2009 recession.

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Less than seven weeks are left before Britain should leave the EU and Prime Minister Theresa May is still not able to enlist the support of Parliament. Business investment in the fourth quarter fell by 3.7 percent compared with last year, which was the biggest drop since 2010. Household expenditures, which unexpectedly strongly boosted economic growth in the middle of the year, remained stable by 1.9 percent more than a year ago. In general, investments in business were stalled after the referendum in June 2016. The Bank of England expects business and housing investment to decline this year, while export growth will be halved. For the pound, it's hard to call as good news. The currency, which literally not so long ago was able to get rid of political pressure, has again found itself under the weight of unresolved issues by politicians.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 11. Pound collapsed on weak UK GDP data

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The British pound fell in the morning, which allowed buyers to work out my morning scenario in testing the support of 1.2284, which, unfortunately, did not reach several points. As long as trade is conducted above this range, one can count on a continuation of the upward correction. Aa breakthrough of the resistance level of 1.2943 will only strengthen the demand for GBP/USD pair, which will lead to further growth in the area of maximum 1.2997, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound today in the afternoon, long positions can return to the rebound from a minimum of 1.2852.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears failed to maintain a downward impulse after the expected weak data released on the UK economy. For the second half of the day, the task is to form a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.2943, which may lead to new sales of GBP/USD in order to break through support 1.2884 and update the minimum 1.2852, where I recommend taking profits. In case of growth above 1.2943, a maximum to 1.2997 will be acceptable for short positions today.

More in the video forecast for February 11

Moving averages

Trade returned to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is very low, and a breakthrough of the upper border around 1.2948 will lead to a larger increase in the pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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February 11, 2019: GBP/USD is demonstrating bullish weakness around the backside of the broken trend.

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.

As expected, the recent bearish decline below 1.3150 brought the GBP/USD pair into a deeper bearish correction towards 1.2920-1.2950 where (38.2% Fibonacci level) as well as the backside of the depicted broken trend are located (in RED).

However, lack of bullish demand is being demonstrated on the current daily candlestick. Hence, the short-term scenario remains bearish towards 1.2800 unless bullish breakout above 1.2920 is re-established early.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for further bearish decline towards 1.2825-1.2800 as a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.2760.

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The United States faces shutdown again

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The negotiations that took place in the US Congress last weekend again did not bring the desired results on the issue of border security, which threatens the likelihood of a deal to further finance the US government this Friday. And it threatens the new "Shutdown."

The immigration issue again became a stumbling block in the negotiations, in particular, the demand of Democrats to reduce the number of beds for illegal migrants in temporary detention centers of the US Immigration Service from 38 thousand to 16 thousand. In addition, representatives of the Democratic Party are demanding an increase in the number of judges dealing with illegal immigrants and also allocate additional funds for the installation of tracking and control systems at the border with Mexico. Donald Trump is extremely dissatisfied with the position of the Democrats, calling their actions "irrational."

Recall that if the issue is not resolved by next Friday, the financing of the American government will again be suspended, as will its activities.

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EUR / USD: Greenback's winning march continues

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At the end of last week, the dollar strengthened by more than 1%, demonstrating the best dynamics since August 2018. The winning greenback series can be the longest since February 2017. The USD index has been closing in the green zone for already 6 trading sessions in a row.

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The demand for the dollar as a safe-haven has been aggravated by the heightened uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, as well as the threat of a recurring "shutdown" of the American government that is looming on the horizon.

This week, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and the country's trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, are scheduled to head for the capital city of the Middle Kingdom, where a regular round of talks will take place from February 14 to 15. The period during which the parties have pledged to conclude a trade agreement expires on March 1. If by this time the deal cannot be reached, the United States will raise trade duties from 10% to 25% on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion.

Meanwhile, negotiations between Republicans and Democrats over the financing of the construction of the Trump Wall on the border with Mexico have again reached an impasse.

According to Mick Mulvaney, the acting head of the White House office, if Congress does not allocate funds for these purposes, Donald Trump is ready to again suspend the work of the federal government after February 15.

The introduction of a state of emergency is called as one of the options for overcoming the dispute.

As for the euro, the fundamental factors are now clearly playing against the single European currency. At present, there is some pressure on the euro due to concerns about fourth-quarter German GDP data, which will be published this week. It is assumed that if the German economy slips into a technical recession, then the entire currency bloc will have a hard time. Given the growth of the dollar, the EUR / USD pair should already be trading below the level of 1.13, but the bulls have not yet left hopes to cling to it. However, the breakdown of this mark can serve as a strong "bearish" signal, indicating continued downward movement in the direction of 1.12.

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 11. Euro buyers are becoming increasingly active

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

As I noted in my morning forecast, amid the absence of an important fundamental statistic, euro buyers are gradually returning to the market and to maintain the upward impulse, it is necessary to return and fix above the resistance of 1.1321. This will open a real prospect of euro recovery to 1.1351, where I recommend today to take profits. In case of a further decline in EUR/USD in the second half of the day, long positions can only be returned to rebound from a new low of 1.1272.

To open short positions on EUR / USD you need:

The bears managed to push through the morning support level, however, the sellers could not continue the downward impulse, which slowed down around the January 24 minimum. So far, the sharp profit taking has led to the return of EUR/USD already in the area of resistance 1.1321, on which further direction will depend today. In case of unsuccessful consolidation, the bears may try to regain the market position, which will lead to a repeated decrease and the breakdown of support at 1.1298, with an update of a minimum of 1.1272, where I recommend taking profits. If the pair grows in the second half of the day, you can take a closer look at the rebound from the maximum of 1.1351.

More in the video forecast for February 11

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator falls, which does not give signals to enter the market and a breakthrough of the upper border in the area of 1.1333 could lead to a larger growth of the European currency.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Bank of England has extended a helping hand to the pound

Will the British pound be able to recover after the most devastating week since October? The Bank of England's decline in foggy Albion's GDP forecasts for 2019 from 1.7% in the previous estimate to 1.2% (the weakest level since the global financial crisis), unfavorable political landscape and a gaining US dollar lowered the GBP / USD quotes from January 22. At the same time, a rich economic calendar, another parliamentary vote on Brexit and a reassessment of decisions made at the last BoE meeting allow sterling to claim to be the most interesting currency of the week.

Despite pessimistic estimates of economic growth and a 25% chance of a recession within six months, Mark Carney managed to save the pound from falling into the abyss by saying that the scenario should not be considered to investors without a repo rate increase. If a glimmer of hope appears in a sea of negativity, then the market tends to buy back the asset by lowering its quotes. This is exactly what happened with GBP / USD. The peak towards the middle of the 28th figure found its bulls, even though the futures contracts reduced the chances of at least one tightening of the BoE monetary policy from 50% to 41%.

Bank of England GDP Projections

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Financial markets no less than the Bank of England care about the final version of Brexit. The chances of indiscriminate and mild withdrawal from the EU are about the same, which suggests heightened risks for the GBP / USD peak to 1.25 or rally to 1.35. Despite the fact that the previous versions of the agreement with the European Union, proposed by Theresa May, were either rejected or postponed, in January, the pound was optimistic about this information. "Bulls" seriously expected that the parliament will not allow chaos. Many have stated that article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon will be prolonged, which provided the sterling with the ground for growth. In fact, it was the usual euphoria from the potential retention by the Foggy Albion of a place in the EU (in the case of a repeated referendum, this option seemed the most likely). As soon as it became clear that the lawmakers were in no hurry to extend the terms of the article, speculators began to take profits, which resulted in a wave of sales of the analyzed pair.

Along with the parliamentary vote on the draft agreement with Brussels on February 14, sterling will face a busy economic calendar. The slowdown in GDP from 0.6% to 0.2% q / q in the fourth quarter was another blow to the bull positions. With skepticism, Bloomberg experts look at releases of data on inflation and foreign trade. Consumer prices in January may slow down from 2.1% to 2%, which, with the constancy of core inflation (+ 1.9% y / y), strengthens the MPC pigeons position.

Technically, on the daily GBP / USD chart there is a correction within the framework of the transformation of the "Shark" pattern at 5-0. Kickbacks to 38.2% and 50%, as a rule, are used to form long positions. Restoration of an uptrend will enhance the risks of implementing targets for the "Wolfe Waves" pattern.

GBP / USD, the daily graph

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Global trade on the verge of recession

Currently, a number of experts pay attention to signs of a slowdown in the global economy. Most signals indicate that it is approaching a recession. This is confirmed by the large-scale decline in global trade over the past three years.

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For ten years, most of the negative economic news was perceived by financial markets with optimism since the economic downturn means a soft central bank policy. During this period, the company showed good financial results but now the situation has changed. Experts record the fall in revenue for the first time since 2016. Analysts do not exclude that in the first quarter of 2019 and it is expected to decrease in earnings per share in annual terms.

Experts urge to pay attention to weak macroeconomic data from Europe. Eurozone's first economy, Germany, is on the verge of a recession. The investment attractiveness of the country is in connection with this fall. At the moment, the yield on German 10-year bonds has decreased to 0.08%, although, a year ago the figure was 0.77%.

Serious concerns of investors are caused not only by the eurozone economy but also the entire global economy. The fall in investment activity is recorded against the background of alarming reports about the US-China trade negotiations. According to analysts, the trade war between both countries is not only in the information space but also has a negative effect on the global economy. At the same time, the Chinese economy is showing signs of a slowdown and a further decline. Recall that Germany and all eurozone countries are the leading trading partners of China, hence, economic conflicts strike Europe. In the industrial production of the Federal Republic of Germany, the fourth month in a row has been falling and its dynamics have deteriorated significantly.

One of the key indicators of the global trade state is the Baltic Dry Index bulk freight index. At the moment, its dynamics indicate a collapse of world trade. The Baltic Dry Index is at its lowest level in the last three years. It was 44% lower than last year, experts emphasized.

The volume of global trade in the period from September to November 2018 showed the strongest decline, which was not the case since the mid-2015. As a result, most states began to lower forecasts for the growth rates of their economies. EU countries have reduced their forecast for GDP growth to 1.3% from the previous 1.9% in 2019. Experts of the UK central bank lowered the growth of the economy from the previous 1.7% to 1.2%, while the Bank of Australia reduced its GDP forecast to 2.75%. Analysts considered the fears of the Australian regulator to be unnecessary, as there has never been a recession on the Green Continent, at least since the creation of the World Wide Web.

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Weekly review of the foreign exchange market for February 11, 2019

The dollar couldn't improve its position in relation to the single European currency and the pound. Although in the United States themselves no significant macroeconomic data did not come out. It is difficult to name data on production orders or orders for durable goods, as well as applications for unemployment benefits, are so decisive. At the same time, production orders decreased by 0.6%, while orders for durable goods increased by 0.7%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 61 thousand. In particular, the number of initial applications decreased by 19 thousand and repeated ones by 42 thousand. In addition to all this, consumer lending amounted to $ 16.6 billion against $ 22.4 billion dollars in the previous month. In other words, there was no serious data. So the matter is both in the European statistics and in the political factors that attract the most attention of the mass media agitation and disinformation. One of the main events was the speech of Donald Trump in Congress. The owner of the White House praised himself for his success in the economy, which, he said, demonstrates the best dynamics in recent decades. The most important thing is that the President of the United States promised to continue to pursue a policy of revising the trade agreements that discriminate against America. If you translate it into human language, the United States will continue to squeeze foreign capital from its market and twist the hands of all other countries in order to receive privileges for its capital in foreign markets. That is, Donald Trump explained to all potential investors, they say, invest your money in the economy of the United States, not in Europe or elsewhere.

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Nevertheless, even without the help of Donald Trump, the single European currency had enough reasons for sadness. The growth rates of producer prices slowed from 4.0% to 3.0%, and retail sales from 1.8% to 0.8%. Not only did the data have more weight than those released in the United States, but they were also purely negative.

In Britain, the epic continues with Brexit, only Mark Carney was able to get away from the discussion of which. Theresa May, following the instructions of the British Parliament, went to Brussels for a new agreement. There she was waiting for a complete fiasco, which the British mass agitation and disinformation tried to present as a victory. Jean-Claude Juncker, expressing his understanding of the concerns of the British parliamentarians, vowed to make additions to the wording of the political declaration, which reinforces the intentions of the parties to constructive cooperation after Brexit. However, given that the time before the UK's withdrawal from the European Union is less and less, and the changes need to be coordinated with each country separately, this will happen not earlier than the UK's eviction from the European dormitory. The head of the European Commission almost swore by blood that the interests of Albion will be taken into account. However, there can be no talk about amending the text of the agreement, which the British Parliament rejected. Europe does not intend to revise the document, which has already been approved by all countries of the European Union. The agreement regulates the obligations of the parties, and the political declaration does not oblige anyone to anything. That is, Theresa May did not achieve anything. Although this was to be expected since European politicians have long been saying that the agreement will not be revised. However, the media agitation and misinformation were able to give it all so that investors were optimistic about the pound. Only after a couple of days, market participants have not received their sight, but have changed their attitude towards the pound itself. It's all about the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England, after which a press conference was held by Mark Carney. The head of the Bank of England is probably the most serious specialist in drafting apocalyptic predictions of what the UK is waiting for after Brexit, and he did not go out of his role. Mark Carney once again scared with incredible risks and consequences of this very Brexit, and also added that in the event of development of events under the worst scenario, it is worth thinking about easing monetary policy. From his words, it follows that there will be no increase in the refinancing rate this year. He also added that the Bank of England lowered the forecast for economic growth rates for the current year. That is, having lowered this very forecast, the Bank of England just proceeds from the worst scenario, and it is worth waiting just to lower the refinancing rate.

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This week, much more macroeconomic data is waiting for us, and, to be honest, the American statistics are causing considerable concern. In particular, inflation should fall from 1.9% to 1.6%, and the growth rate of producer prices from 2.5% to 2.1%, which will finally convince everyone that this year the Fed will not raise the refinancing rate. It is too early to talk about the possible easing of monetary policy, but there is something to worry about. In addition, a further decline in retail sales is expected, which, combined with a slowdown in inflation, is generally a nightmare for investors of all stripes. Yes, and the industry can disobey the orders of its commander in chief, and continue sluggish slowdown. So, American statistics expectations are strictly negative.

It cannot be said that in Europe the opposite hopes, since the growth rate of industrial production, or rather its decline, should only slow down from -3.3% to -3.1%. Yes, and another assessment of GDP growth rates is likely to confirm their slowdown from 1.6% to 1.2%. Nevertheless, the slowdown in inflation in the United States is a much more weighty argument, and the single European currency can rise to 1.1400.

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In the United Kingdom comes a whole heap of statistics, and, as an evil, extremely important. After all, this may interfere with the voluptuous discussion of Brexit. Instead, you will need to make boring conversations about the current economic situation. And because some of the data is already out. Thus, a preliminary estimate of GDP showed a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.3%. Investments continued to decline, and their decline slowed down from -1.9% to -3.7%. Only industrial production was somewhat pleased, as the pace of its decline slowed down from -1.3% to -0.9%. Surely, there will be those who are ready to rejoice in such notable achievements of the British industry. We are still waiting for data on inflation and retail sales. Inflation fits completely into the picture of already released data since it should decrease from 2.1% to 2.0%. Retail sales can postpone the onset of the apocalypse, which is predicted by Mark Carney since their growth rates should accelerate from 3.0% to 3.4%. So the forecasts and the results are clearly deplorable. But in the United States is no better. Consequently, if they do not again make a fuss about Brexit, the pound will remain in the area of 1.2950.

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Three best investment ideas - experts

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According to experts of the global market, currently, there are three most suitable options for investment. Analysts consider them almost win-win and recommend replenishing their investment portfolio with ETF and REIT assets, as well as shares of companies specializing in medical care for the elderly.

In the past few years, ETF, or exchange-traded investment funds, have gained incredible popularity. Experts emphasize that an ETF is a basket of intraday trading securities, such as exchange stocks. As a rule, they are designed to track the base index. The ETF structure is based on capital preservation. They have numerous contributions organized as mini-portfolios. Each ETF is focused on a specific asset class. Papers of such funds provide for growth in the future, and here even beginners can make a profit.

Most real estate investment funds (REIT) have been in the black thanks to the latest innovations in the housing industry, analysts say. In the United States, an increase in the number of tenants is recorded in connection with the collapse and the subsequent restoration of the American residential real estate market. Many REIT funds use the following strategy: they build or buy housing in popular areas of the city with a troubled housing situation, where companies lack either customers or employees. Since in most actively growing cities the rates for homeownership are declining, the growth in the number of tenants becomes profitable for real estate investment funds. This trend will continue this year, experts believe.

The third most popular trend is the elderly care industry. Experts believe that investments in this industry are the most promising. The number of seniors on the planet is steadily increasing. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), by 2050 the number of people over 60 will reach 2 billion people, which is about 22% of the world's population. Currently, there are more and more new investment opportunities for companies targeting this age category. Active growth is recorded in the pension and health care industries. According to forecasts of the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States, in the next ten years, the demand for home care workers and social workers will grow by almost 50%. According to analysts, healthcare is the most serious item of expenditure on the elderly, and therefore, for the world economy as a whole. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), spending on health care among 35 member countries may increase to 14% of GDP by 2060. It turns out that investment in the health sector of the elderly is the most profitable option in the near future, experts conclude.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 11, 2019

analytics5c61594f1ea06.png

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 11, 2019

analytics5c61568bd349e.png

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.3210 and 1.2913. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3210 to 1.2913 which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210; because the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3010 and 1.2734. Overall, we still prefer a bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3010. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2913, the market will decline further to 1.2734 (daily support 1). Hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2734 to test it again. The level of 1.2704 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3210, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3250.

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Control zones of USD/CHF pair 11.02.19

The first candle of the current week has a range of 105 points, which indicates the implementation of the upward model, with the goal of 1/2 CZ of 1.0050-1.0040. If you take it into account, further developments will depend on whether the close of today's trading will be below the close of Friday. If this happens, the downward movement will come to the fore, otherwise, the upward movement will continue.

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If this candle is not a market quotation, then ascending goals cannot yet be considered. I think it's right to use the maximum of last week to build correctional zones, ignoring today's extremum.

An alternative model of the fall will be developed if the closing of today's trading will occur below the 1/4 CZ f 0.9976-0.9971. This will lead to the formation of a local accumulation zone. The goal of the reduction will be the 1/2 CZ of 0.9924-0.9915, the test of which will determine the further priority for the second half of February.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Why the dollar continues to grow that threatens the euro and the Australian dollar

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The dollar starts the week near a six-week high against a basket of major currencies, investors continue to rely on the security of dollar assets against the backdrop of new concerns about trade tensions between the US and China. Negotiations between these countries will be the main topic of this week. The strengthening of the dollar confirms the cautious mood in the market at present. But the Australian dollar and euro are now at a vulnerable level, and a further decline in risk sentiment may lead to a decrease in these currencies. The dollar even added 0.1 percent against the yen, to 109.82 yen, nevertheless, the movement in this pair is likely to be small on Monday, as the Japanese markets are closed on a public holiday.

The United States will put pressure on China in connection with long-standing demands to change its attitude to the intellectual property of American companies, only in this case it will be possible to conclude a trade deal that will stop the increase in tariffs for Chinese imports. US President Donald Trump said he does not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before March 1.

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The strengthening of the dollar is likely to continue, despite the Fed taking a cautious stance. At the moment, investors are choosing the safety of the dollar due to fears of a sharp slowdown in the global economy, and this is moving it up. The euro was under pressure, as European debt yields fell to their lowest level in two years. The single currency lost 2.5 percent this month. The European Commission sharply lowered its forecasts for economic growth in the eurozone this year and next, as the largest economies of the block are expected to be constrained by tensions in world trade and domestic problems.

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Simplified wave analysis of USD / JPY for February 11

Large-scale graphics:

Since March last year, the bullish wave has been developing, setting the dominant direction to the price trend of the yen major. By the end of the year, the formation of the first 2 parts (A + B) was completed.

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Medium scale graphics:

From January 3, the main course of the short-term set is the ascending wave structure, which potentially will be the final part of the main trend wave. The movement has a pronounced pulse form.

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Small-scale graphics:

On the chart, from January 31, a new upward movement is observed. The waveforms the final part (C) in the model of the older TF. In recent days, the price moves sideways.

Forecast and recommendations:

There are no conditions for the sale of a pair on any of the scale charts. Conditions are being formed for a new uptrend. It is recommended to track the instrument purchase signals.

Resistance zones:

- 111.00 / 111.50

Support areas:

- 109.50 / 109.00

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 11

Large-scale graphics:

The main vector of price movement on the daily scale of the chart is directed downwards. Since November of last year, the oncoming wave is formed, the potential of which does not exceed the level of correction.

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Medium scale graphics:

From January 10, a downward wave zigzag develops on the TF H1 chart. In a larger model, it corrects the rising wave that started earlier.

Small-scale graphics:

The wave level of the bearish wave of January 31, which increased in the last week in a larger structure, puts it in place of the final part (C).

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Forecast and recommendations:

The expectations of the beginning of the reversal last week did not materialize, which is caused by the lengthening of the current wave down. Below are 2 control support zones, in one of which you can count on a change of course. Prior to the reversal signals, trade deals are not recommended.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1480 / 1.1530

Support areas:

- 1.1330 / 1.1280

- 1.1210 / 1.1160

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The threat of recession will help the dollar

Asian markets at the opening of trading on Monday supported the negative, which formed on Friday amid reports of the impossibility of meeting Trump and Xi Jinping before March 1, when the new import tariffs imposed by the US should take effect. The Fed's earlier refusal of the planned rate of normalization of monetary policy should have led to a decrease in the dollar, but the changed agenda suggests the opposite.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, said on Friday that the Fed is actively discussing the possibility of "more regularly" using the policy of quantitative easing. There are grounds for changing the position of the Fed since the world is on the verge of a new recession.

In the 1980s, the Fed, and other central banks behind it began to focus on the federal funds rate to achieve their goals of supporting the economy. The "Taylor rule" works here if inflation is above the target level or unemployment is below the natural level, then the rate should be increased, and in the opposite case, reduced.

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However, in recent years, the natural interest rate has been falling in all large economies, and in the event of a threat of recession, it is no longer possible to reduce it. As part of the fight against the crisis of 2008, the natural rate was about 2% and it was not enough to create mechanisms to support the economy, which led to the need to launch "quantitative easing" programs in the US, the eurozone, the UK, and Japan.

At this stage, only the Fed is trying to reduce the balance, but the Bank of England and Japan, as well as the ECB, have not even started normalization. In the event that the threat of a recession increases, they will have no choice but to inflate the balance sheets even further, since reducing the rate below the zero levels is guaranteed to destroy banks' incomes. Central banks need some kind of new solution that will preserve financial stability and at the same time not inflate balances and not lower rates below zero. Until this solution is found, the dollar will continue to enjoy demand primarily due to the lack of an alternative.

Eurozone

The eurozone is in a slowdown phase, which is not yet in the nature of a recession, but there is no doubt about the direction. In the economic bulletin published on the eve, the ECB recognizes some of the problems associated mainly with the slowdown in world trade, but it expects economic growth to resume, mainly due to the labor market and stable consumer demand. At the same time, the key parameters of the eurozone economy point to an obvious decline, PMI and an indicator of economic sentiment are declining, which will lead to a decrease in GDP.

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Preliminary GDP data for 4 square will be published on Thursday, the euro in the first half of the week will be under pressure. The situation is aggravated by the growing likelihood of a political crisis, elections to the European Parliament will take place in May, parliamentary elections will be held in April-May in some countries, and most of them have obvious problems with the formation of the budget.

The decision of the United States to increase duties on cars from the EU also exerts strong pressure on the euro, it is unclear at what level the new rate will rise, since 10% seem to have already been decided, and 25% could bring down EUR / USD on a couple of pieces. Today, the likelihood of testing the recent low of 1.1288 looks quite high, even despite the lack of correction when moving from 1.15 down.

Great Britain

The pound closely follows the Brexit development scenario, but we should not forget about the macroeconomic indicators themselves. Already today there will be published preliminary data on GDP growth rates and the volume of investments for the 4th quarter, as well as December results on industrial production and the trade balance. For all indicators, the forecasts are either neutral or moderately positive, the expectations do not allow the pound to decline and lead it to the sideways range.

The currency pair GBP / USD will be trading above 1.2852, but out of range is unlikely, the pound will wait for new data and the reaction of the British Parliament to the EU's refusal to begin new negotiations on Brexit.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. February 11. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May continues to push her Brexit plan in parliament

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -66.3903

The currency pair GBP / USD on Monday, February 11, is trying to resume its downward movement. Over the weekend, no new and important information on the Brexit issue was made available to traders. The head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has already announced that there is no breakthrough in negotiations with Theresa May and reports that they will continue. He also focused on the fact that the UK has 50 days to leave the European Union. At the same time, the Labor Party seems to better understand what Theresa May wants and how she wants to achieve it. The party leaders are going to oblige Theresa May to vote on the "deal" with the EU before the end of February, no later. It seems that no one doubts that there will be no voting on February 13. This is done to prevent a situation in which there is very little time left until March 29 and the deputies will again be faced with a choice: either Theresa May's "deal" or Brexit's "tough" one. It seems that Theresa May is trying to implement just such a plan, realizing that otherwise, she will not be able to achieve a compromise. Today in the UK, data on GDP (a preliminary value for the 4th quarter and the final for December) will be published, as well as a report on industrial production for December. The forecasts for this data are very weak.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2878

S2 - 1.2817

S3 - 1.2756

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2939

R2 - 1.3000

R3 - 1.3062

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD is trying to resume movement down. Thus, now it is still recommended to consider sell orders with a target of 1.2878. Manual reduction of short positions when the Heikin Ashi indicator turns up.

It is recommended to open long positions in case of a reverse fixation of the price above the moving with targets of 1.3062 and 1.3123. But there are still a few fundamental reasons for strengthening the British currency.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. The 11th of February. The trading system "Regression Channels". The pair is preparing for a hike at 1.1500

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -99.0604

At the beginning of the new trading week, the EUR / USD currency pair continues to trade lower and, thus, move towards the goal we announced a week ago, 1.1292. Before that, the target remains about 30 points, and the key question remains: what will happen after reaching this level. From our point of view, the pair will remain in the side channel, limited by the levels of 1.1290 and 1.1500. No matter how weak the Euro currency, there are no compelling reasons for leaving below the level of 1.1290. In the future, although this option cannot be excluded. Thus, we expect the option with a turn-up and the beginning of the upward movement in the coming days. From macroeconomic events on Monday, February 11, there is nothing special to note. At the weekend, too, nothing interesting in the world regarding the euro has happened. Thus, technical factors will be of great importance today. The Heikin Ashi indicator is still down. Its upward reversal may indicate a round of upward correction or the beginning of an upward movement to 1.1500. But until this indicator has turned up, the downward movement of the intraday continues. We also note that the volatility of the currency pair remains extremely low.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues a slight downward movement. Thus, short positions remain relevant until the Heikin Ashi indicator reverses to the top with the goal of Murray's level of "1/8" - 1.1292.

It is recommended to open buy orders not earlier than traders overcome the moving average line with a target of 1.1414. The trend for the instrument will then officially change to ascending.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 02/11/2019

The main question of the new week is whether there will be a new shutdown in the US?

As we know, the last shutdown was not fully resolved but only delayed until February 15. The question of the dispute of Trump Democrats in financing the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico has not been resolved.

It puts pressure on the markets. In addition, the issue of the British-EU agreement is not showing progress, despite the active attempts of Prime Minister May to find a solution.

Plus, a negative data shows a slowing growth in the eurozone.

While the situation on EUR/USD looks like the intention to break down 1.1285 and start moving down.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1285.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review for the currency pair GBP / USD from February 11 to February 16, 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

This week, the price will move down with the first target of 1.2437, the lower fractal.

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

The conclusion on a comprehensive analysis - the downward movement.

The total sum of the calculation of the GBP / USD currency pair candle on the weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have a downward trend with the absence of the first upper shadow of the weekly black candle (Monday - down) and the absence of the second lower shadow (Friday - down).

This week, the price will move down with the first target of 1.2437, the lower fractal.

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EUR: The US-China trade negotiations will take place this week. The fall of the euro slows down

Despite the continued strengthening of the US dollar, which has been observed for 11 days in a row, traders and investors have long ago revised their portfolios and will adjust them according to new directions in the US monetary policy. This year's rate hikes are clearly not expected, the maximum can be counted on one thing, which weakens the position of the US dollar in the medium term.

The only hope for further short-term growth of the dollar is the meeting of high-ranking representatives of China and the United States scheduled for February 14-15 in Beijing. A meeting was directed to the resumption of negotiations in order to resolve the trade conflict between the two countries before March 1, when an armistice in a trade war should end.

The meeting will be held between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin.

The data, which came out on Friday on the German economy, provided only temporary support for the euro, after a series of weak fundamental statistics observed throughout the past week.

According to a report by the Federal Bureau of Statistics, German exports rose, which could ease concerns about the slowdown in German GDP growth earlier this year.

According to the data, in December last year, compared with November, German exports increased by 1.5%, while imports increased only by 1.2%. Compared with December 2017, German exports decreased by 4.6%. Total surplus of German foreign trade in December amounted to 19.4 billion euros, while economists had expected its growth to only 18.5 billion euros.

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Already in the afternoon, the demand for the US dollar returned, and the statement by the Fed representative supported him.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview that no recession in the US is expected, but the economy had to become more moderate after the hot 2018. She expects a modest impact of the suspension of government work on the economy in the 1st quarter of this year, after which recovery will follow in the 2nd quarter.

However, it is worth recalling that there is still a risk of a repeated shutdown, which increases the uncertainty and may hit consumers' confidence even more.

Daley also noted that the slowdown in the labor market is not surprising, given the rise in the Fed rates.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, then, as noted at the end of last week, the demand for the US dollar slows down and an upward correction is brewing;

The sellers will target areas of support 1.1290 and 1.1270, from which a more powerful market reversal can begin.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review for the currency pair EUR / USD from February 11 to 16, 2019

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

When moving down, the first lower target of 1.1231 is the support line (blue bold line).

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis is neutral;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - down.

The conclusion on a comprehensive analysis - the downward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the EUR / USD currency pair candle on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have a downward trend with the absence of the first upper shadow from the weekly black candle (Monday - down) and the absence of the second lower shadow (Friday - down).

When moving down, the first lower target of 1.1231 is the support line (blue bold line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 11. The working version remains unchanged.

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Wave counting analysis:

On Friday, February 8, the bidding ended with another 15 bp decrease. Thus, the option of reducing the instrument, at least to the level of 100% Fibonacci, remains in force. There is a need to look at the behavior of the market at about the level of 100.0%. It is possible that the EUR / USD pair will make an unsuccessful attempt to break through this level, which will lead to the transformation of the entire wave structure into a 3 wave. At the same time, there are no visible obstacles for further reduction of the pair within the framework of exactly wave 3 of the downward trend with targets around 12 figures and below. News in the United States and the European Union today should not be based on the calendar.

Sales targets:

1,1289 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1514 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a downward wave of 3. Thus, now, I still recommend selling EUR / USD instruments with targets near the levels of 1.1284 and 1.1215, which corresponds to 100.0% and 0.0% Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the mark of 1,1289 can lead not only to the departure of quotations from the lows reached, but also to the completion of the downward wave.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for February 11. The pair continues to crawl slowly down.

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD on the 4-hour chart continues the process of falling towards the level of 1.1269, after closing at the Fibo level of 23.6% - 1.1358. The bullish divergence of the MACD indicator is still brewing. Its formation will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth of the pair. Fixing the course of the pair above the correction level of 23.6% will similarly work in favor of the euro currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.1446.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair continues the process of returning to the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285. The release of quotes from this Fibo level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the euro currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Overcoming divergences are not observed. Fixing the pair below the level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair EUR / USD can be carried out with a target of 1.1446 if the pair closes above the correction level of 23.6% and a Stop Loss order under 1.1358, especially in combination with the formation of bullish divergence.

Sales of the currency pair EUR / USD can be carried out now with a target of 1.1269, as the pair completed closing below the level of 1.1358, and a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358 and left them open until a bullish divergence is formed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD February 11. Divergence and rebound incline pound to fall

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on a 4-hour chart performed a double rebound from the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2969 and a reversal in favor of the American dollar. As a result, on February 11, the pair can return to the Fibo level of 50.0% - 1.2869. Over the current chart, there are no divergences observed in any indicator. Closing quotes of the pair above the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of the British currency and resumption of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.3094.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, bearish divergence allowed the pair to make a U-turn in favor of the US currency and consolidation below the Fibo level of 50.0% - 1.2943. Thus, the drop in quotations can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 61.8% - 1.2878. Closing the rate of steam above the level of 50.0% can be interpreted as a turn in favor of the British currency and expect a resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.3008.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 15, 2019, and January 25, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair GBP / USD can be made with the target of 1.3008 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 50.0% if the pair closes above the level of 1.2943 (hourly chart).

The currency pair GBP / USD can be sold now with a target of 1.2878 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 50.0%, as the pair completed the closure below the Fibo level of 1.2943 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Do not expect strong movements in pairs with the dollar

As March approaches, the tension around the story with Brexit more and more shows a high degree of probability that there will be no amicable solution to the problem between Britain and the EU.

The inability of the Cabinet of Ministers T. May and the local parliament to reach an agreement between themselves, and then May itself with the European Union, indicates a high degree of probability of an uncontrolled exit from the EU, which can deal a severe blow not only to the economy of the island nation, but also to large Europe. So far the situation has "frozen", exerting the strongest pressure on the dynamics of sterling and euro currency. The first one reacts nervously to any negative and "positive" news, moving without a definite direction, either up or down.

The second one actually froze and moves in tandem with the American dollar in a rather narrow range for the fourth month in a row. If in the case of the GBP / USD pair, the Brexit theme is predominant, in the second case, the pair is under pressure from falling expectations that the ECB will decide this year to begin the process of a slow rise in interest rates. Moreover, this is happening against the background of a noticeable slowdown in the growth of the European economy, which has already given rise to talk that the economy of the eurozone countries may fall into recession this year. But there is another important factor that does not allow the pair to fall on the wave of the weakness of the euro, this is the strongest pressure on the US dollar. The Fed's signals that it will most likely make a pause in raising interest rates in the first half of this year, the topic of stopping the work of the US government, and the possibility of resuming the shutdown on February 16 against the background of the political struggle between D. Trump and his opponents, all this puts pressure on the dollar.

But in this situation, everything is not so simple again. The slowdown in the global economy, as well as the European and Chinese along with it, as well as the high probability of this process already beginning in the States, forces investors to reduce the risk of appetite and buy US Treasury debt securities, which leads to a demand for the dollar and supports its course. Simply put, the US currency is in demand as an asset safe haven.

This is the extremely complicated situation in the markets, which, in our opinion, will continue at least until the beginning of March.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trading above the level of 1.1315, which coincides with the support lines of the short-term uptrend. If it keeps above, there is a probability of a local growth to 1.1390-1.1400.

The currency pair GBP / USD is above the level of 1.2920. If UK GDP data turns out to be weaker than forecast, there is a chance that the price will continue to fall to 1.2830.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 11, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

On Monday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1291 is a lower fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1291 is a lower fractal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP / USD pair on February 11, 2019

GBP / USD pair

Friday passed without noticeable changes in the technical perspective of the British pound. Even the Marlin oscillator signal line continues to move along slightly above the zero line on the four-hour chart.

Today, the GDP data release is scheduled to be released in the UK. The December forecast assumes a zero increase and 0.3% for the 4th quarter versus 0.6% in the 3rd quarter. The volume of industrial production for December is expected to increase by 0.1% after the previous compression of -0.4%. Forecast for the UK trade balance for December is expected at the level of November at -12.0 billion pounds. The balance of trade without taking into account the EU countries may show improvement from -3.9 billion pounds to -3.7 billion in the area of 1.2992. Better than forecasts data will be able to increase the correction to the resistance of the MACD indicator line in the 1.3044 area on the four-hour chart.

Hence, the correction can be considered as the main scenario. In the case of negative data, the price may go below the support of MACD at 1.2883 on the daily timeframe, which further lowers the price to the level of 1.2784, which was the minimum of September 5.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com