S & P: The US economy has lost at least $ 6 billion due to the shutter

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Analysts at rating agency Standard & Poor's estimate that the US economy lost at least $ 6 billion during the suspension of government work.

S & P Global Rating experts believe that as a result of the shutdown, the US budget lost $ 1.2 billion a week since the suspension of government departments led to a decrease in productivity and a low level of business economic activity.

The shutdown was caused by the reluctance of the US Congress to allocate $ 5.7 billion for primary funding for the construction of a wall between Mexico and the US, while negative consequences, according to S & P experts, have already exceeded the amount requested by President Donald Trump.

Analysts also noted that, despite the resumption of government agencies, the negative effect of the shutdown is likely to affect financial markets and business confidence in the future of the country's economy.

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Gold updated the maximum on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting

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Earlier this week, the gold price has updated a maximum since June 2018, pending a meeting of the US Federal Reserve with a decision on interest rate.

Apparently, investors are hiding from the risks in the precious metal. During today's trading, gold futures rose to $ 1,303.75, but then declined slightly and as of 17:25 Moscow time traded at $ 1,297.35.

Most analysts believe that, following a two-day meeting, the US Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged. Earlier, representatives of the regulator stated that they were ready to raise the rates twice this year, but in subsequent statements, they were more restrained.

The focus of attention is also on trade negotiations between the United States and China, the parties intend to reach an agreement before the deadline of March 1.

The Chinese delegation on Wednesday, January 30, will arrive in Washington for the next round of trade negotiations. If the deal fails before March 1, US President Donald Trump intends to raise tariffs on imports of Chinese goods.

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Bitcoin: bulls ready to go

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There's a bullish Wolfe Wave pattern on the Bitcoin's one-hour chart. The price faced support on the 1-3 line, so there's a green light for a bullish rally. Moreover, there' a pullback from the 0.786 retracement level of the previous upward price movement, which brings more evidence for the bullish outlook.

The main intraday target is the 0.786 retracement of the current decline at 3950.51, which is near the 1-4 line of the pattern. The subsequent pullback from this level could lead to the beginning of a local downward correction. At the same time, more careful and patient traders should wait for a break of the 2-4 line, which will be final confirmation for a rally in wave 6 towards the target.

However, if the price doesn't break the 2-4 line and fixates below the 0.786 retracement level, this scenario will be at risk. If this happens, we should abstain from any long trades until the market comes back above the 0.786 level and then goes through the 2-4 line.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 28, 2019

EUR/JPY has been struggling at the edge of 125.00 area for a few weeks in a row. The pair could extend a downward bias in the long term. Ahead of ECB President Draghi's speech today, JPY had been quite soft in light of the minutes today. Investor sentiment will clear up after the close today.

EUR managed to sustain the momentum over JPY after the drastic fall towards 119.00 area was recovered earlier. The ECB forecast of the eurozone's economic growth has been downgraded in the speech of ECB President Draghi last week. He warns that the euro area is losing momentum. According to ECB's quarterly survey, a key element of Thursday's policy update sees 2019 GDP growth to decrease to 1.5% which was expected to be at 1.8%. The Inflation is also dipping to 1.5% instead of 1.7% in the previous forecast. The ECB has been missing the inflation target since 2013 that undermines the eurozone's economic growth in the long run. If ECB President Draghi drops any positive hints for market participants, EUR could find some support. Otherwise, EUR is expected to lose further momentum, thus opening way for JPY gains.

On the JPY side, the Bank of Japan released the minutes of the latest policy meeting where policymakers disagreed over the level of bond yields. The US-China Trade War has already affected JPY. A positive outcome of the Trade War is expected to help Japan to regain the growth. Otherwise, the trade conflict could bring a fallout to Japan's economy. Members present at the meeting stated some factors to look at, including reaching the 2% inflation target strain on Japan's economy amid a slowdown in the global economy. Moreover, SPPI report was published with a decrease to 1.1% which was expected to be unchanged at 1.2%. Though Japan's economy has been growing quite rapidly, the current situation is acting as a barrier to further growth. On Wednesday, JPY Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.9% from the previous value of 1.9% and Consumer Confidence Index is also expected to edge down to 42.5 from the previous figure of 42.7.

Meanwhile, both currencies in the pair are still quite indecisive, whereas any positive outcome of economic reports or events may clear up a direction in the pair. Though EUR has been struggling to gain momentum, any downbeat economic data from Japan may lead to further downward pressure in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently moving lower with confluence below 125.00 area. The pair is expected to have a higher probability to decline deeper towards 123.00 and later towards 120.00 area in the future. As the price remains below 125.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue or else a bullish counter-move with sustainable bullish momentum may occur.

SUPPORT: 120.00, 123.00

RESISTANCE: 125.00, 127.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on January 28. Bears in no hurry to return to the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The euro buyers returned to the market after the expected correction, which I paid attention to in my morning review. At the moment, the next buy signal will be a breakthrough of the resistance level of 1.1422, which will lead to the continuation of the upward trend with the update of highs around 1.1457 and 1.1490. The release of important fundamental data is not expected, so all attention remains on the speech of the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. In the event of a further euro decline in the afternoon to the support area of 1.1387, it is best to look at long positions from 1.1342.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

There were not enough bears for a long time, and after a slight downward correction, demand for the euro is again observed. At the moment, it is best to look at short positions after the update of this week's high in the large resistance area of 1.1457 or a rebound from 1.1490. The main task of sellers for the second half of the day will be a breakthrough and consolidation below the support of 1.1387, which will instantly lead to a sale to the minimum area of 1.1342 and 1.1292, where I recommend fixing the profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted above the 30-day and 50-medium moving, which indicates a possible continuation of the growth of the euro.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator has sharply decreased, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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GBP/USD analysis for January 28, 2019

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GBP/USD continues to rally as expected. Our second target at the price of 1.3200 is reached but there is still space for the upward movement. Even the GBP/USD looks to be in the overbought condition, the upward trendline is holding and the price is still trading inside of the Pitchfork upward channel. As long as the support at the price of 1.3060 is holding, buying opportunities are preferable.

R1: 1.3225

R2: 1.3240

R3: 1.3270

Pivot: 1.3200

S1: 1.3182

S2: 1.3150

S3: 1.3135

Trading recommendation: We closed our long position on GBP/USD that we took from 1.2900 and made around 250 pips. Anyway, the level of 1.3140 is a decent support for another smaller long position, so we bought GBP/USD. Targets are set at the price of 1.3217 and 1.3400. Protective stop is placed at 1.3050.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on January 28. The pound continues downward correction

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The pound buyers made an attempt to reverse the downward correction in the first half of the day from the level of 1.3152, which I paid attention to in my morning review, but I did not manage to get above the daily highs, which increases the chance for the pound to continue to decline. In the current situation, it is best to look at the long positions for a rebound from the support of 1.3084 and 1.3013. The main task for the second half of the day will be a breakthrough and consolidation above 1.3213, which will open for GBP / USD new highs near 1.3291 and 1.3348.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The bears coped with the morning task of returning to the level of 1.3152, but it did not work out below this range. In the afternoon, a breakthrough in this area of support is required, which will strengthen the downward impulse and will lead to a minimum of 1.3084 and 1.3013, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of an uptrend in the second half of the day, you can take a closer look at sales at the next unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.3213 or rebound from a maximum of 1.3291.

More in the video forecast for January 28

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the possible formation of a downward corrective trend.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a pound growth, the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3215 will act as resistance.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for January 28, 2019

Bitcoin sank below $3,500 amid strong bearish momentum today which has cleared the impulsive bullish bias by some extent. Currently the price is expected to dive much lower in the coming days. Bitcoin is currently trading firmly below $3,500 on the intraday charts while being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line as support. The Chikou span is also holding below the price line which also signals the bearish pressure in the market. Currently the price is consolidating below $3,500 area which is expected to result in a certain pullback towards the $3,500 area for a retest before it continues with the bearish momentum with a target towards $3,000 support area.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,250

RESISTANCE: 3,500, 3,600, 4,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

"Australian" votes for peace

The key stage of trade negotiations between the US and China, the release of the fourth quarter Green Inflation data and the question of whether US stock indexes can continue to rally, which directly affects the global risk appetite, allows the Australian dollar to claim the title of the most interesting currency of the week. Heats interest in it and the return of demand for carrying trade operations. Let the yield of Australian bonds inferior to US counterparts, but the "Aussie" on this indicator is still among the top three among the G10 currencies.

China is the largest sales market for the Green Continent, so it is not surprising that in the context of trade wars and the slowdown of the economy of the Middle Kingdom to the lowest levels over the past three decades, Ozzy became one of the main outsiders of the G10 in 2018. The situation was aggravated US stock market, which forced investors to discard risky assets. In January, the situation changed. The Fed, with the help of "pigeon" rhetoric, managed to calm the financial markets, while the start of negotiations between Washington and Beijing, as well as the optimism of Donald Trump, extended a helping hand to the bulls on AUD / USD.

The state of the Australian economy leaves a double impression. On the one hand, the labor market looks healthy, and falling unemployment to 5%, provided inflation accelerates, opens the way for RBA to an increase in the cash rate. On the other hand, the share of household debt in disposable income from the 1990s increased from 67% to 189%. This allows the derivatives market to issue a 50% chance of easing monetary policy, and HSBC and Rabobank forecast a fall of AUD / USD to 0.66 and 0.68 by the end of December.

Dynamics of AUD / USD and the share of household debt in disposable income

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Most likely, both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Fed will keep rates at the current level, at least until September, which suggests that the fate of the analyzed pair will depend on the external background. And we are talking not only about trade wars but also about resuscitation of investor interest in carrying trade operations. Historically, their effectiveness was higher than the passive management strategy in the US stock market. The game on the difference brought income for 12 of the last 18 years. Currently, the reduction in the volatility of financial markets and the growth of global risk appetite increase interest in it, which contributes to the strengthening of the Australian dollar.

According to Moody 's, all the leading central banks of the world have adopted a waiting position. The Fed pauses in the normalization process, the ECB is unlikely to raise the refinancing rate before 2020, the Bank of Japan remains committed to an ultra-soft monetary policy. This behavior of regulators gives financial markets the necessary liquidity and supports the demand for earning assets.

Technically, a breakthrough of resistance at 0.7235, the activation of the "Perfect Butterfly" pattern with a target of 127.2% followed by the release of AUD / USD quotes beyond the descending trading channel strengthen the risks of continuing the rally.

AUD / USD, the daily chart

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Analysis of Gold for January 28, 2019

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Gold continues to rally as expected. Our first target at the price of $1,295.00 is reached, but there is still plenty of space for the upward movement. Since the key resistance at the price of $1,295.00 is broken and there is the upward trend, I expect that Gold will reach the median Pitchfork line in the future.

R1: $1,301.50

R2: $1,303.60

R3: $1,304.75

Pivot: $1,300.00

S1: $1,298.24

S2: $1,297.00

S3: $1,295.00

Trading recommendation: We are long Gold from $1,285 and our SL is on the breakeven, but we added new smaller long position from $1,300.00 and a protective stop at $1,285.00. Our main target is $1,340.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit hysterics and dollar benefit

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This Tuesday, British Prime Minister Theresa May will present a new plan for secession from the EU to Parliament. In the case of non-acceptance of the Brexit agreement by March 29, the country may lose more than $ 1 trillion. Almost as many of their British assets were withdrawn in anticipation of leaving the group. The amounts are staggering. To avoid the worst, English officials need to find a compromise on some issues. There was almost no time left to think, the bill went on for days.

Tomorrow the pound may fall, the rebound from the level or a hard break depends on the reaction of parliamentarians.

As for the currency pair GBP / USD as a whole, the medium-term upward correction continues. The goal is 1.32-1.3250, buyers are still very strong.

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Undoubtedly, the most interesting currency of this week will be the US dollar. The US president killed several birds with one stone. He embodied the threat of refusal to travel to the Davos forum, thereby proving the categorical nature of his position regarding the issue of illegal immigrants.

Donald Trump also made it clear to the world that the attempt to get together and resolve international issues without the presence and support of the United States is obviously a failure.

The owner of the White House, in any case, will get his after a meeting with the Prime Minister of China, which will be held in late January in the United States. Recall, the Celestial Empire made an offer on the eve of Washington, which is difficult to refuse, parity of import and export.

For five years, America is fully capable of expanding the list of goods and services in the Chinese market by about $ 1 trillion. There are two sides here, the first is almost a monopoly. The second is a big dependence on long-term relations, where Washington will not have to dictate terms, but act according to a treaty.

Few people love the framework, but here we are talking about world power. There is one more thing. The fact is that the Chinese market is not rubber, and if the States receive a blank check, some countries will run away. Do not forget about the raw materials, not America will fill with a $ 1 trillion niche burgers. This is a pebble to the Russian Federation.

Last January week will give the market a range of activities from the United States. On Wednesday, data on the growth of the country's economy for the fourth quarter will be published. The indicator is expected at the level of 2.6% y/y. Investors are now concerned about the risk of slowing global GDP, so the US report will be in the focus of the market. If the data exceeds forecasts, then the risky assets and assets of the EM will respond positively. Worse than expected figures will further exacerbate concerns about the growth of the global economy and intensify the demand for safe assets.

On this Wednesday, the FOMC interest rate decision will become known. The federal funds rate is likely to remain unchanged at 2.50% (upper limit). Comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be the most significant for traders. The words of a financial official will directly affect risky assets: support a recent rally or complete it.

In this regard, the movement of gold will be aggressive. The results of the forum in Davos, the uncertainty of the conflict in Venezuela, the Chinese guests in the USA, the Brexit hysteria and the decision on the interest rate - this number of events in one week will knock the ground out from under the feet of investors. Precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and the Japanese yen are currently in a favorable growth climate.

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The EUR / USD rate defended 1.13, left the downward channel and aims at 1.1435-1.1505-1.1550. Now the market is looking up.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 28, 2019

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 17 when significant bearish rejection was demonstrated around 1.2999 (Bearish Engulfing candlestick around the downtrend line).

This paused the bullish scenario for a while, allowing sometime for bearish correction towards 1.2830 where another bullish swing was initiated.

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the price level of 1.3240 when the current bearish rejection was initiated around 1.3215.

For the bullish scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above the price level of 1.3150 (Broken Supply Level) should be maintained on a daily basis. This enhances another bullish visit towards 1.3240.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below 1.3150 may bring the GBP/USD pair again into a deeper bearish correction that extends down to 1.3000 where bullish recovery should be anticipated.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for bearish pullback towards 1.3000 (backside of the broken downtrend in RED) for a valid BUY entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.3055, 1.3135 and 1.3200. Any bearish H4 closure below 1.2950 invalidates this scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Will the Fed surprised the markets?

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One of the most important events of the week, of course, will be the next meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). Already this Wednesday, the regulator will announce its interest rate decision and plans for the balance sheet.

Last Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Central Bank may revise the policy of quantitative tightening and maintain a larger balance sheet account than previously expected.

"Currently, FOMC members are considering how to convey this information to the public. If the negative economic effect of the "Shutdown" will be serious, then the Fed will be easier to justify their actions," transfers the publication.

It should be noted that on Friday the WSJ material had a significant impact on the market. In particular, the dollar index for the day sank by almost 0.8%. Today, DXY is trading near the mark of 95.8.

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TD Securities analysts believe that at the next meeting the Fed is unlikely to directly announce the suspension of the balance reduction. Instead, the regulator may hint at a decrease in its rate.

The fact that the Fed is really preparing, we find out, most likely, already on January 30.

Meanwhile, the question of raising the interest rate the Fed still remains open.

While the market does not expect an increase in the cost of lending until the end of 2019, leading Wall Street banks to predict that the Fed will maintain a policy of tightening monetary policy this year.

"I think there will be one or two rate increases this year," said James Gorman, chairman of the board of directors at Morgan Stanley.

"Macroeconomic data for December, currently available, is strong enough to justify a further increase in interest rates," says Brian Moynihan, the head of Bank of America.

It is possible that at the very first meeting in 2019, the Fed will not raise the rate, leaving it at the current level of 2.5%.

It is assumed that the decision of the Federal Reserve may weaken the dollar in the short term. However, if we proceed from the fact that the last week of January often serves as a leading indicator for a whole year, then this may turn out to be a bad sign for a greenback.

According to the forecast of ING Group experts, the euro against the dollar by the end of the year may reach $ 1.20.

"This year, the growth of the EUR / USD pair will be primarily due to the weakness of the dollar, and not the strength of the euro," they noted.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for January 28, 2019

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BTC breached the key support cluster at the price of $3.420, which is a clear sign that sellers are in control and that buyers don't have power. BTC is trading inside of the downward Pitchfork channel and I am expecting a potential reach of the median line. The key support now became the level of $3.420.

Resistance levels:

R1: $3.572

R2: $3.613

R3: $3.663

Pivot : $3.522

Support levels:

S1: $3.480

S2: $3.431

S3: $3.390

Trading recommendations for today: We are short BTC/USD from $3.392 and with the target at $3.107. Protective stop is placed at the price of $3.550.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 28, 2019

Last week I mentioned that it was important for bulls to see a weekly close above 1.1350. The weekly close was even better. Price closed above 1.14 and a bullish reversal candlestick pattern was created. A bullish hammer pattern was made and this gave bulls hopes for this week.

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Green rectangles - bullish hammer patterns

Red lines - bullish divergence

Bulls saw EUR/USD close above 1.14 last week but need a follow through this week. Resistance is found at 1.1490 and a weekly close above it would be great news for bulls. On the other hand bulls do not want to see price reverse and close below 1.1350. That would be a bearish sign. EUR/USD has the potential to move higher as long as 1.1350-1.13 area holds.

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Technical analysis for Gold for January 28, 2019

Gold price broke above $1,292 resistance we mentioned in our previous posts and this was a bullish signal. Gold price is now trading above $1,300 and could continue higher towards $1,315-20 which is our next target.

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Green rectangles - support areas

Red lines - bullish channel

Gold price remains in a bullish trend. We noted that only a break below $1,276 would open the way for a move towards $1,260. A break above $1,292 signaled that a bullish move was starting. Gold price remains in a bullish trend as long as price remains above $1.277. Short-term support is found at $1,292-95 and resistance at $1,315. Breaking below the lower red upward sloping trend line would be a bearish sign.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 28/01/2019

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 28/01/2019:

The projected Fibonacci target has been hit, pullback time now

The GBP/USD pair went up towards the projected target at the level of 1.3175 and even was capable to make a local high at the level of 1.3217. Since then, the pair reversed towards the technical support at the level of 1.3139. This is the nearest technical support, but the key support is the green zone between the levels of 1.3047 - 1.3071, so if this zone is violated, the uptrend might be considered as completed.

Please notice, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum, which supports the short term bearish outlook. Nevertheless, the market is still moving inside of the channel and above the long-term trend line support at the level of 1.3000, so the larger time frame trend is still up.

Trading recommendations:

As the projected target was hit, so all the buy orders should be closed now with profit. Traders should observe the market in order to see how it will behave at the technical support levels mentioned above and trend accordingly.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for January 28, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected four times confirming the veracity of the uptrend. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7219. The level of 0.7389 will act as major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 28, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair opened around the weekly pivot point (1.1393). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1393 to the bottom around 1.1335. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1393 followed by 1.1426, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1335. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1393. So it will be good to sell at 1.1393 with the first target of 1.1335. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1294. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1254 level. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1393 and 1.1254 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1393 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1393 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1393, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1453.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: "Engulfing" pattern pushing the price higher

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Let's have a look at the Daily chart, where the pair is moving sideways. There's a bearish 'Harami' pattern, which has been formed on the 89 Moving Average. Also, there're several pullbacks from the lower 'Window', which has acted as support many times before.

Despite that both 3 Line Break Chart and Heiken-Ashi Indicator are bearish, we should focus on the last bullish 'Engulfing' pattern, which formed on the 'Window'. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average in the coming days. The subsequent pullback from this line could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of the previously tested support at 1.1210.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 28/01/2019

The GBP/USD pair went up towards the projected target at the level of 1.3175 and even was capable to make a local high at the level of 1.3217. Since then, the pair reversed towards the technical support at the level of 1.3139. This is the nearest technical support, but the key support is the green zone between the levels of 1.3047 - 1.3071, so if this zone is violated, the uptrend might be considered as completed.

Please notice, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum, which supports the short term bearish outlook. Nevertheless, the market is still moving inside of the channel and above the long-term trend line support at the level of 1.3000, so the larger time frame trend is still up.

Trading recommendations:

As the projected target was hit, so all the buy orders should be closed now with profit. Traders should observe the market in order to see how it will behave at the technical support levels mentioned above and trend accordingly.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for January 28. "Briton" stopped paying attention to Brexit

analytics5c4ebc998719a.png

Wave counting analysis:

On January 25, GBP / USD rose 140 basis points and the current wave counting has not changed. In the supposed wave 3, the elongation and the internal 5 wave structure are already visible. Tomorrow the next Brexit vote should take place in the UK Parliament, and this event may affect the wave picture of the instrument, so you should be ready for everything. One way or another, but the wave structure of the uptrend of the trend does not look complete.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3297 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

1.3367 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2996 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

1.2889 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern implies the construction of 5 internal waves in composition 3. Now I recommend buying with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.3297 and 1.3367, which corresponds to 127.2% and 127.2% of Fibonacci since the estimated wave 3 looks fully stocked.

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Trading plan for 28/01/2019

The EUR / USD was trading in the last hour was at 1.1410, USD / JPY went back to 109.30. Indices in Asia first grew slightly, then turn back, and attention was shifted from government shutdown to the next round of US-China trade talks. Chinese Shanghai Composite loses 0.2% and Japanese Nikkei225 fell by 0.6%.

On Monday, the 28th of January, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but there is plenty of speeches scheduled from today from ECB President Mario Draghi and BoE Governor Mark Carney.

SP500 analysis for 28/01/2019:

The US budget was released until February 15, and the parties will negotiate on the financing of the wall at the border with Mexico. If the agreement is not reached, the government shutdown will be resumed. Trump also suggested that he could declare a state of emergency (then the funds for the construction of the wall would be drawn from the Pentagon's budget). Despite the important change, the markets do not see a clear change of sentiment, neither on Friday at the end of trading on Wall Street, nor this morning in Asia. The US remains weaker, which, however, looks like giving back some of the strength from the previous week.

Let's now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last swing down and made a local high at the level of 267.01, just below the technical resistance at the level of 269.00 - 269.82. The momentum remains strong and positive despite the overbought market conditions, so another leg up should be expected: first towards the technical resistance mentioned above and then towards the swing high at the level of 279.48. This would mean that all decreases from December 2018 will be erased and the market will be ready to continue the larger time frame uptrend.

The nearest technical support is seen at 259.24 - 258.57 zone and should not be violated during the local pull-backs.

analytics5c4ecaa88f919.jpg

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Technical analysis for US Dollar Index for January 28, 2019

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Technical outlook:

We have presented an hourly chart view for US Dollar Index today, for the most probable move in next 1-2 trading sessions. As seen above, the US Dollar Index has finally managed to break its immediate support trend line and is now seen to be trading into the sell zone. Furthermore, the price support at 96.00/05 has been broken as well, indicating that a potential bearish resumption could be underway. Please note that 96.68 levels could prove as strong resistance and a meaningful top in place for the next several trading sessions. Any intraday rallies could test the back side of support turned resistance trend line and reverse lower, from a fibonacci level as depicted here. The fibonacci 0.818 resistance is seen at 96.29 levels, along with the backside of trend line resistance and a bearish reaction there could resume the down trend. Any intraday rallies should be now taken as opportunities to initiate fresh or add more short positions.

Trading plan:

Remain short for now, stop at 96.70, target 94.00 levels at least.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ethereum Elliott Wave analysis for 28/01/2019

Ethereum Elliott Wave analysis for 28/01/2019:

The last wave to the downside continues

Market technical overview:

After completing the corrective wave 4 in a form of a Triangle pattern (it might be some version of complex correction thou), the bears have broken below the technical support at the level of 108.46 finally. The current low is around the level of 103.80, but the projected target for wave 5 of the wave A is seen at the level of 100.15 - 98.17 zone. Please notice the momentum accelerates, so the traders might expect the price to arrive at the destination level quite quickly, maybe even during today's trading session.

When the wave A is completed, then a corrective bounce to the upside is being expected as the wave B of the bigger degree will start to unfold. The targets for the wave B will be projected once wave A is completed.

Recommendations:

All seel orders should be kept open with the target at the projected zone between the levels of 98.17 - 100.15.

analytics5c4ec9541d827.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD for January 28. Euro is preparing for a new fall

analytics5c4ebc62e0c42.png

Wave counting analysis:

On Friday, January 25, bidding ended for the pair EUR / USD by 100 bp increase. Thus, there are grounds for assuming the completion of the construction of wave 1 of the new downward trend section and the transition to construction 2. If this is indeed the case, then at the current moment, this wave can also be completed. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 50.0% warns about this. Thus, it is expected to resume the decline with targets located about 12 figures and below. At the same time, it should be recognized that it will be very difficult to pass the minimum of wave b, and it is quite possible that the wave marking will undergo changes as part of an unsuccessful attempt to break through.

Sales targets:

1.1269 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1188 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1419 - 50.0% Fibonacci

1.1455 - 38.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair began building a corrective wave. Thus, its completion will lead to the resumption of reduction of quotations with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.1269 and 1.1188, which equates to 100.0% and 127.2% Fibonacci. Now I recommend cautious sales of the pair with designated targets and orders limiting possible losses above the level of 50.0% on the small Fibonacci grid.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 28/01/2019

The impulsive bullish scenario is very close to invalidation

Market technical overview:

The bulls are too weak to rally above the technical resistance at the level of $3,640 and what's even worse, the price stays below the short-term trend line resistance as well. The local highs are made at the level of $3,600, but the bears are pushing the market lower towards the technical support at $3,430. Any violation of this level would invalidate the bullish impulsive scenario and the sell-off will accelerate towards the level of $3,223 again.

Trading recommendations:

Any violation of the level of $3,430 will invalidate the bullish scenario, so the buy orders should be closed and sell orders should be opened with a target at the level of $3,2223.

analytics5c4ec454d7e4d.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY on January 28, 2019

USD / JPY

On Friday, the US stock market showed an optimistic growth of 0.85%, but this did not help the yen to consolidate above the line of the growing price channel of daily scale due to the general weakening of the dollar. This morning, the price found support on the Kruzenshtern line of a four-hour scale, which gives hope for the price to turn up, its growth to the resistance of the indicator and graphic lines of the daily chart to the area of 110.47. But even today, the Japanese stock market is down by -0.37% against growth in all other APR sites (China A50 0.60%, IDX Composite 0.04%). Perhaps another "dive" yen, albeit small, maybe. In general, we expect growth to 110.47.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 28, 2019

analytics5c4eb78e8e186.jpg

Technical outlook:

We have presented an hourly chart for EUR/USD today, to get a short-term view for the next 24-48 hours. Please note that EUR bulls managed to break above the resistance trend line and also price resistance at 1.1394 levels on Friday. The entire rally between 1.1289 and 1.1425 levels can be considered as the recent upswing that is being worked upon. Please note that bulls have managed to take out initial resistance and hence the rally could continue after a short pullback towards 1.1370/75 levels or a much deeper retracement towards 1.1340 levels as depicted on the above chart. Also note that the backside of resistance turned support trend line could be tested before the rally resumes. The potential upside targets are not highlighted here but it could be 1.1500 and 1.1600 levels at least. A major price support might have been put in place at 1.1289 levels and bulls are expected to remain in control till it remains intact.

Trading plan:

Remain long, stop @ 1.1280, target 1.1500, 1.1600 at least.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Attention to the Fed: markets are waiting for new targets

On Wednesday, the first meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be held this year, and, unlike the practice of previous years, it will be accompanied by a press conference, the Fed intends to make all its meetings "live". Markets are waiting for a possible change in the wording, which will make a conclusion about how much the Fed is prepared to insist on two increases in the current year, scheduled for the December meeting.

At the moment, as follows from the data on futures for the rate on CME, investors do not believe in an increase either in January or in March or even in December.

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The dollar fell on Friday across the entire spectrum of the market, the reason was the rumors that the Fed is considering revising the target for the level of balance upwards, which will be an indirect sign of the upcoming recession. In this regard, the Powell press conference after the meeting on Wednesday will become a key event not only of the beginning of the week but will obviously set the dynamics of the currency markets for several weeks in advance.

On January 26, an agreement was finally reached on a temporary shutdown of the Shutdown, funding for the work of the government will be resumed until February 15, during which time Trump hopes to reach an agreement with the Congress on financing the wall on the border with Mexico. If this does not happen, the government's work will again be paralyzed, but this will happen against the background of the March 1 date, when it will be necessary to revisit the issue of the public debt ceiling in recent years. Domestic political split in the United States will affect the pace of economic growth, which, in turn, will increase the pressure on the dollar.

Eurozone

The Ifo business climate index in Germany fell in January from 101p to 99.1p, the lowest value since February 2016, business expectations at the lowest level since 2012. There are no signs of stabilization of the situation yet, and the slowdown concerns not only the manufacturing sector but in the services sector, the slowdown rate is quite comparable.

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Despite the fact that the ECB had to admit the growth of risks, the general position of the Central Bank remains unchanged. The regulator prefers to consider these risks as temporary. In his opinion, trade tensions will decrease, the dynamics in the Chinese economy will recover, and the weakness of Germany and France will end as soon as the new standards for the German auto industry are adjusted and the movement of "yellow vests" is completed.

So far, the ECB has not made any statements that the rates will remain at the current level until 2020, and the markets are waiting, if not in the summer, then at least by the end of the year, one increase. In conjunction with the change in expectations for the Fed in the direction of mitigating such an alignment ensures the stability of the euro.

This week, important macroeconomic data from the eurozone is not expected, the dynamics of EUR / USD will be provided by the prospects for ending the US shutdown and developing the situation around Brexit in the UK. On Monday, EUR / USD has some upside potential, resistance of 1.1460 / 70, an attempt to reach this level during the day is very likely.

Great Britain

January 29 will be a vote on an alternative plan for Brexit in the British Parliament. The pound rose significantly on Friday amid the news that the plan would be supported by the DUP party with some reservations, which sharply increased the chances of a favorable outcome of the vote. A legally binding vote is not, however, the procedure allows to choose from a number of amendments those that the parliament will insist on, one of them implies a request to the EU to extend the validity of Article 50.

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The pound will win back a positive, so purchases on pullbacks look quite reasonable. This week, the publication of important macroeconomic data is not expected, players will look for a minimum positive for the next purchases. GBP / USD has overcome the first of the resistances of 1.3170, the next in turn is 1.3257 and then 1.3297, the chances are high, the markets are confident that the situation is developing according to a favorable scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review of the foreign exchange market for January 28, 2019

Brexit is some kind of alpha and omega of our day. Virtually all news releases begin and end with news about the difficult and thorny path of the UK from the European hostel. And this time, the main topic for discussion was the "alternate plan" for secession from the European Union, which Theresa May quickly provided to Parliament. In quotes, for the very reason that it was immediately clear to everyone that she made this plan on her knee over the weekend. After all, before this, there was no talk of any backup plan. And it seems that the reading of this document impressed the parliamentarians so much that instead of the traditional accusations of armlessness they decided to discuss the possibility of a legislative ban on leaving the European family, without a divorce agreement regulating trade issues. And as if by request, while no one had time to ask a trivial question about what smacks of elementary blackmail, the Minister of Commerce of Great Britain said that as soon as possible the United Kingdom would sign trade agreements with each of the countries of the continent separately. They say the negotiations are in full swing, without interruptions for sleep and lunch. True, the honorable gentleman did not bother to enlighten the public about the content of these agreements, especially in terms of trade duties and quotas. But such verbal intervention was enough for the pound to perk up.

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But Mario Draghi did not want the single European currency to grow and did his best so that events would develop in a somewhat different direction. During his press conference, which took place immediately after the first meeting of the European Central Bank's board this year, which resulted in the parameters of monetary policy remained unchanged, he said so much that anyone had a brain to curtail. At first, he withdrew all the questions regarding the refinancing rate, saying that one should not wait for it to increase until the end of summer. But then he again raised questions about this very interest rate, saying that the traders had quite correctly guessed the actions of the ECB and had already fixed the refinancing rate in the quotes no earlier than the beginning of next year. As a result, Humpty Dumpty does not succeed in collecting, for it is not at all clear when this thrice-damn rate will be raised. Although it was possible to predict such a development in advance, since inflation in Europe is slowing down again, and this does not particularly contribute to an increase in the refinancing rate. Of course, one may say that inflation may rise by this time and so on, but after all, it has grown before, but almost immediately went down. And no one will guarantee that after her next ascent she will not repeat the same somersault.

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And, as usual, behind all political scandals and intrigues, as well as the incomprehensible behavior of the monetary authorities, macroeconomic statistics remained almost unheeded. True, last week there was not much to look at. Well fell 6.4% of home sales in the secondary market of the United States. But then, preliminary data on business activity indices turned out to be significantly better than forecasts. And if the business activity index in the services sector fell from 54.4 to 54.2, while the forecast was 54.1, then the production index rose from 53.8 to 54.9, although they waited for the decline to 53.5. It is easy to guess that thanks to this the composite index of business activity rose from 54.4 to 54.5. And the number of applications for unemployment benefits did not increase by 6 thousand but decreased by 27 thousand. But in Europe, preliminary data on business activity indices instead of growth showed a decrease. In particular, the business activity index in the service sector decreased from 51.2 to 50.8, while the production index from 51.4 to 50.5. As a result, the composite index decreased from 51.1 to 50.7. So without Mario Draghi, it is clear that the single European currency would have to decline. In the UK, however, we were pleasantly pleased with the data on the labor market, which showed a decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.0%, and an acceleration in the growth rate of the average wage from 3.3% to 3.4%. True, to the delight of investors, this increased wages with allowances, while without them they remained unchanged.

In the middle of this week, the results of the first meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations, which may present many surprises, will be announced. The fact is that although the Fed announced in December that this year the refinancing rate will be raised twice, judging by futures on the interest rate, few people even believe in one increase. In other words, there is no clarity either with the timing of increases nor with the economic conditions that must be met in order to raise the refinancing rate. So if the Fed gives at least some specifics, then nothing will stop the dollar from further growth, as it turns out that two increases in the refinancing rate have not yet been fully incorporated into the value of the dollar. But do not forget that the report ends the week the US Department of Labor, and now he can have a negative impact on the dollar. The fact is that with absolute stability of absolutely all indicators, the rate of creation of new jobs can slow down very much, and this will frighten market participants.

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In fact, Europe will have to become a weak-witted observer of the events that await us in the United States. At the same time, the single European currency should rely on the fact that the Fed will disappoint market participants and not give concrete answers to quite specific questions since preliminary GDP data should show a slowdown in economic growth from 1.6% to 1.2%. And against the background of such weak data, even if the Federal Commission on operations in the open market does not dispel investors' doubts, there is practically no reason for the euro to grow. So the probability is extremely high that by the end of the week the single European currency will drop to 1.1350.

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But the most highlighted event of the week will be the voting in the British Parliament on the new plan of Theresa May, which parliamentarians will probably already study far and wide. The strange initiative of a number of parliamentarians is alarming to try to legally ban Brexit without a deal, as well as the reaction of the Minister of Commerce, who swears that he has already agreed on everything. Such preparation makes sense only if the new plan of the Prime Minister again contains nothing about trade and duties. In this case, the statements of the Minister of Commerce serve as a supplement to the plan proposed by Parliament. In fact, nothing else is expected in the United Kingdom. And if you look at the incredible growth of the pound, as well as the single European currency, everything is very similar to the preparation for massive sales just after the vote. It is worth waiting for the decline of the pound to 1.3075.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones GBPUSD 01/28/19

Medium-term impulse growth on the pair continues. There is no sign of the formation of a reversal pattern. For this reason, there is no possibility to search for sales. The pair is trading outside the monthly short-circuit, which increases the likelihood of supply and the formation of a correctional model.

When working this week, it is necessary to take into account that the pair has gone beyond the monthly short-circuit of January and the middle course zone has passed a week. The probability of formation of a correctional model increases significantly. This may provide an opportunity to sell the instrument after the reversal pattern has been formed. This will require session or daily absorption and the breakdown of one of the lower control zones.

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Friday's growth was strong, so its absorption will indicate the appearance of a large seller and the installation of a limit resistance zone.

This will allow you to start working in the flat range.

Despite the fact that the pair has gone beyond the monthly CP, hurrying with sales of the tool is not recommended. You must patiently expect the formation of a reversal pattern. As long as the lower control zones remain supportive, the upward movement will continue. For such a strong upward impulse, it will take some time to complete it and go into the correctional phase.

analytics5c4eb1a9307be.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market has been changing several times a year.

Weekly fault - weekly control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market has been changing several times a year.

Monthly fault - monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan 01/28/2018

Positive news came to the markets:

The Fed - the decision on Wednesday January 30 - there is no doubt that the decision will be a soft one.

Brexit - voting on different versions of the agreement with the EU is expected on January 29. It seems that the news can only be positive - it cannot be worse than the current situation. At the same time, the pound rose to 1.3170 - the pound ignores the negative on Brexit.

So in the new week - the Fed on Wednesday; US employment report - on Wednesday from ADP, on Friday - official.

Euro buy from 1.1395

Alternative: Sell from 1.1285

analytics5c4eb3999319f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 01/28/2019

At the close of the week, the euro gave a strong technical signal to the top: after trying to break below 1.1300, the euro was heavily bought, and it broke through the daily order level of 1.1395 to the top and is higher in the morning.

Fundamentally: the end of the shutdown in the US (for the time being it is temporarily until February 15) was a positive for the markets.

In addition, the strong growth of the British pound shows that the markets are not afraid of the failure of the EU-Britain agreement.

Next week there are important events - the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the jobs report in the US on Wednesday and Friday.

The Fed's soft position may spur the growth of the euro.

We keep buying euros from 1.1395, the purpose of 1.1570.

Alternative: Sell from 1.1285

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 28th of January. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Voting in parliament according to plan "B". Will there

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 122.8852

The currency pair GBP / USD on Monday, January 28, as if nothing had happened, continues a confident upward movement. The pair now mostly ignores any news and lack thereof, but simply grows. Thus, as we have written more than once, it is best to continue to follow the current steady trend now, not paying attention to the fact that such a strengthening of the pound is not too logical and incomprehensible what is caused. We still believe that this strengthening may be followed by a strong drop in the pound sterling since there has never been any clarity on the Brexit issue. Yes, it became clear to all that neither the European Union nor the United Kingdom is ready to accept the "tough" Brexit. And until the last, they will try to reach an agreement in such a way that this will suit both the EU leaders, and Theresa May, under whom the chair has been swinging for several months, and the British Parliament. But this does not mean that the parties will be able to agree. In the meantime, first there was a postponement of the vote in parliament, now we are waiting for the postponement of the country's withdrawal from the EU and new negotiations with the leaders of the bloc. In general, the process is delayed, tomorrow there will be a new vote on the enchanting plan "B" of Theresa May, which is not really different from the plan "A". Most likely, this bill will also be rejected, and from the premier, the markets will wait for a new portion of calls and threats regarding the fact that the best for the UK will be the Checkers plan.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3184

S2 - 1.3123

S3 - 1.3062

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3245

R2 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues to move up. Therefore, purchase orders with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3306 are now relevant. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down will signal a manual reduction of long positions.

Short positions can be considered in the case of bears attached below the moving average line. The trend in the instrument will change to downward, and the first goal for the downward movement will be the level of 1.2939.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 28th of January. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Shutdown in the USA is completed, but a new one is

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 142.3063

The past week ended with a confident growth of the European currency, although it is rather difficult to call it logical and fully justified. As we wrote on Friday, there may be several reasons for such a strong euro strengthening, and they are important for understanding the current trend in the instrument. First, the instrument again failed to overcome an important support zone near the local minimum. At this time, the pair perfectly fulfilled the Murray level of "1/8" and bounced off him. This still indicates that there are no sellers at these lows. Secondly, after so much a fall, the pair needed a purely technical correction. Thirdly, on Friday, it became known about two failed bills, which were designed to complete the "shutdown" in America. Monday began with quiet trading without sudden movements. At the weekend, the US government still managed to record a "shutdown" and sign the law on financing until February 15, 2019. Thus, all state services will work for the next three weeks, after which, a new "shutdown" is possible. The fact is that the resumption of the work of the government does not imply the allocation of funds for the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico. Actually, this is the question that caused the pause in the work of the government.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD has worked at a level of 1.1414. Therefore, it is recommended to open new long positions not earlier than overcoming this target with the goal of the level of 1.1475. There are no signs of the beginning of the correction.

Orders for sale will become relevant not earlier than traders overcome the moving average line and, preferably, the level of 1.1353. In this case, the target will again be Murray's level of "1/8" - 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for January 28, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

On Monday, the price will move up. The first upper target of 1.1431 is the 50% rollback level (blue dotted line). The probability of breaking through the level of 50% is small.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price will move up. The first upper target of 1.1431 is the 50% rollback level (blue dotted line). Then the bottom is possible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for January 28th. Bearish divergence warns of retracement

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD, after the formation of the bullish divergence at the CCI indicator, performed a reversal in favor of the EU currency and the growth was above the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. As a result, on January 28, the pair growth process can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 38.2% - 1.1446. Also today, a bearish divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator. Its formation will allow us to count on a turn in favor of the US currency and a slight decline towards the level of 23.6%. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 38.2% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of a fall.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair rebounded from the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285, and this is the third bounce. For the Euro, this is a good signal. As a result, the growth process of quotations can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the American currency and increase the likelihood of a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair EUR / USD can be carried out now with the goal of 1.1446, as the pair completed the closing above the level of 23.6%, and a Stop Loss order under 1.1358, and hold the purchases until a bearish divergence.

Sales of the currency pair EUR / USD can be carried out with the target of 1.1358 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1446 or a bearish divergence is formed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com